Comments on: Labor by how much

By: Dave S

Dave S — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 07:11:36 +0000

I have tipped Molloy to win Noosa, similar to Kris Hanna’s win in South Australia in March. But, is Molloy too devisive to attract substantial votes from the Right?

For Molloy to win she would have to keep about half of her ALP vote from last time around and then take a big chunk out of the Liberal vote. Is this possible?

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 07:01:36 +0000

I don’t know, but I doubt it. I suspect it’s “just vote one” across the state. The ALP might not be too unhappy if Molloy’s out and a Lib comes in in Noosa.

By: Peter K

Peter K — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 06:47:00 +0000

Can anyone confirm if the ALP is preferencing in Noosa?

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 05:26:18 +0000

Update: Our tips on which seats to watch have now been posted.

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 05:25:47 +0000

Yes, it’s been a very weird election. We need to look beyond the demographics to look at the Libs’ problems internally – they’re behaving very much like the state ALP in the 70s and early 80s – fighting over the spoils of defeat, terminally factionalised, without much real community or business support, and without a coherent policy approach.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 04:38:13 +0000

The Libs won’t win seats until they become the senior Coalition partner, and they won’t become the senior Coalition partner until they win seats. Hence the looming landslide for a government 57 per cent of voters think doesn’t deserve to win.

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 04:30:09 +0000

It’s an interesting question, Politics_Obsessed about when the Libs will get more seats than the Nats. The biggest problem they have is while they’re right about the demographics moving their way, they have to work out how to start actually winning seats!

By: Politics_Obsessed

Politics_Obsessed — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 03:27:14 +0000

cheers mark for that – I admit I occasionally looked at that site… more into this one and the abc election myself….

Should be an interesting night… fun packed action with all your favourite heros…. Slippery Pete, Bumbling Brucie and Bumpkin Borg…. pity there’s no guest star appearance from Promiscous Pauline. I can’t wait to check out the live blog tonight – Will you always do a good job mate! Never a disappointment. [Pity I will be out transversing the City at the time.]

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 03:01:54 +0000

If anyone’s interested in another take, Graham Young and I will be at the tally room tonight and will be live blogging the count at Currumbin2Cook:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2006/09/09/live-blogging-the-queensland-election/

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Sat, 09 Sep 2006 02:34:46 +0000

Interesting to note, that with all the leadership issues being focused on, no-one has questioned how long Beattie will serve in this term. Perhaps he will bow out at the illustrious 10 year mark and let Anna have a year to get comfortable with things.

Actually, there was a bit of discussion of this at the begining of the campaign:

http://larvatusprodeo.net/2006/08/25/the-transformation-of-anna-bligh/

Beattie came out a bit later on with lines very similar to Howard’s = “at the pleasure of the party” etc. But I expect that you’re right and he’ll go during this term.