Comments on: A chart for your enjoyment

By: Sacha

Sacha — Sun, 17 Sep 2006 12:22:19 +0000

Remember that when Borbidge was Premier, the Nats had 29 seats and the Libs had 15. The Libs would have to pick up quite a few SEQ seats to win a majority of the Lib/Nats, as there is such a relatively large fraction of the population living outside of SEQ.

The Libs could win regional city seats including Barron River, Cairns, maybe Mulgrave, some of the Townsville seats, Whitsunday (big tourism industry there) and Hervey Bay, they could win Glass House, Pumicestone, Aspley, Indooroopilly, Ashgrove (possibly), Cleveland, Chatsworth, maybe Greenslopes, Mansfield, Mt Gravatt, Mt Omanney, the gold coast seats – Broadwater, Southport, Burleigh, Mudgeeraba, Gaven and Albert. If they did this they’d have a chance to be the senior coalition partner.

By: B.S. Fairman

B.S. Fairman — Sun, 17 Sep 2006 06:05:56 +0000

Interesting graph. It shows the frequency of Queensland politics is some what more laid back than else where. 42 years of Labour with a blip of the Moore years (29-32), 32 years of Nats (with Libs for some of it), 19+ years odd years of Labor with one blip of the Borbidge years.

By: Tristan Jones

Tristan Jones — Thu, 14 Sep 2006 06:28:42 +0000

I’ve been looking at that chart of party representation in Queensland since 1969 and I have a good gut feeling that the next Coalition premier of Queensland will be a Liberal in a Liberal dominated Coalition. For the Coalition to get back in government in Queensland either the Nationals and Liberals merge into a single Conservative force or the Liberals to improve their performance dramatically.

By: Marcus

Marcus — Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:40:00 +0000

I think Page is still predominately rural, without the urban coastal sprawl (yet) of Richmond or the other north coast seats. Perhaps not quite the critical mass to tip the Nats out and Liberals in.

By: Tristan Jones

Tristan Jones — Wed, 13 Sep 2006 08:06:08 +0000

Depending on Ian Causley’s personal vote and demographic changes in Page since 1996. Either Labor (witness their win in neighbouring Richmond in 2004) or the Liberals could pick up Page at the 2007 Federal Election. Page is a seat to watch for, especially if the election is a close one.

By: blackburnpseph

blackburnpseph — Wed, 13 Sep 2006 07:59:46 +0000

In Page in 1996, the Nats has a very high profile candidate in Ian Causley – state member and former state minister.

He is retiring in 2007 (I think) so it will be interesting to see what progress the Libs will have made after another 11 years of demographic change.

By: David Walsh

David Walsh — Tue, 12 Sep 2006 12:48:34 +0000

I don’t see the Libs gaining Page. They scored less than half the Nat vote when they last contested the seat in 1996. Similar story to Cowper 2001. Labor is still the biggest threat.

On an anal retentive point, Vaile’s 2 vote lead was on the primary vote. That expanded to (an admittedly still meagre) 233 votes once whittled down to a 3-candidate contest. So he could have even started (slightly) behind on primaries and still have won the seat. But pedantry aside, Mark Vaile will likely be the last Nationals member for Lyne.

By: Sacha

Sacha — Tue, 12 Sep 2006 04:26:51 +0000

I believe that there’s going to be a redistribution of Qld state seats in the next two years which may abolish a natural Nationals seat. My guess is that an extra seat will be created in Logan/Gold Coast, an extra one may be created in the Sunshine/caboolture/pine rivers/redcliffe area, and that a seat in south/western qld is abolished, as is one in Brisbane.

By: Geoff R

Geoff R — Tue, 12 Sep 2006 04:24:48 +0000

I have the impression the gap between the state and federal Labor votes is bigger on the Gold Coast than elsewhere in Qld, it seems a distinct anti-National vote. If Causley retires in Page Labor would be favoured but I doubt the Nationals could win it back from Labor.

By: blackburnpseph

blackburnpseph — Tue, 12 Sep 2006 02:37:44 +0000

Tijawi is quite right about the Nats retreating into their rural heartland. If you compare state and federal results the Libs romp in on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. The Nats are being nostalgic if they believe they can still win seats in what is now Australia’s 6th largest city – the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast is essentially suburbia too.

This change from rural to suburban is about to eat into one of their remaining heartlands the NSW North Coast when Ian Causley retires at the next election, can the libs knock over the Nats there? and it was often said that Larry Anthony was always going to be the last National member for Richmond. The suburbanisation may knock the Nats out of Wide Bay and Hinkler at some stage as well. Mark Vaile onyl outpolled the LIbs by 2 (yes 2) votes in 1993 in Lyne.

It has to be said that the Nats are having a protracted death, and it seesm to be that when they lose a seat to the libs, they never win it back (Indi, Farrer, Hume, Murray, etc.).

Unfortunately for the Nats, more rural, less relevant.