You might be interested in some quick back-of-the-envelope analysis of Greens preferences based on votes cast on polling day on the Gold Coast. The main message is: the more naturally urban-Liberal the seat, the more likely that Greens voters will exhaust their votes.

Gaven had a massive 60% exhaustion rate for Greens votes (this is likely to be close to the highest in the state – but I do not have time to do the analysis to confirm this). The irony is that had preferences flowed in any numbers to the conservative candidate then Gaven may have gone to the wire. Similar story in Robina.

Where electors wanted to punish the ALP, preferences from Greens flowed more freely (ie Currumbin), and the majority of course went to the ALP.

Therefore it would be fair to say that a Labor protest vote to the Greens is more likely to go with preferences back, but a conservative Green protest is more likely to exhaust. I think this is a general reflection of voter anger with the Queensland opposition and a reflection of them dropping the ball on “Green” (read environmental, planning and infrastructure) issues.

Of course, I am talking about the peculiar Queensland political landscape and do not intend to draw any conclusions about what may or may not happen in NSW (thanks, Mumble) or elsewhere.