Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: November 2006

Full house?

The Poll Bludger’s lower house predictions left a bit to be desired – I underestimated the Nationals, failed to spot Labor’s troubles in Gippsland, missed Russell Savage’s defeat in Mildura, punted on some roughies that failed to come home (Eltham and South West Coast) and got suckered in by some faulty conventional wisdom (South Barwon [...]

Swings and roundabouts

UPDATE: A seat I had initially overlooked in the summary below, Morwell, has undergone a very interesting turn in late counting. Where the ABC’s end of night figure had Labor 2.2 per cent ahead, the current VEC figure has them 2.4 per cent behind. Unless I am mistaken, this is because a notional Labor versus [...]

Victorian election live

10.55pm. I take it there will be no more updates from the ABC. My final thought for the time being is that this could be yet another cruel result for the Greens, who cannot be certainly of winning anything. The count for Melbourne has progressed a little further on the VEC site, and the 2PP [...]

Late polling

Via Robert Merkel at Larvatus Prodeo, figures from a Benambra electorate poll in the Border Mail which do not appear to be available online: Liberal 45 per cent, Labor 31 per cent, Nationals 17 per cent, Greens 4.5 per cent. This strongly goes against my earlier suggestion that the seat might be an outside chance [...]

Winners picked: upper house edition

At long last, I present my assessment of the state of play in the upper house. I always reserve the right to change my mind up until the close of polls, and that goes double here because there are no doubt subtleties that I have missed. If anyone thinks they can spot any, please raise [...]

Morgan’s last word

Channel Nine has given details of the final Roy Morgan poll of the campaign: Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, but trails 39 per cent to the Coalition’s 41 per cent on the primary vote. The Greens are on 12 per cent, which is remarkably consistent with other agencies’ findings, while Family First is on [...]

Winners picked

Today’s Herald-Sun carries extraordinarily detailed data from a Galaxy survey of 942 voters, including "weighted sample" figures of a type that polling agencies normally keep very quiet about. The primary vote figures are Labor 42 per cent, Coalition 39 per cent and Greens 12 per cent, with Labor’s lead ballooning out to 55-45 after preferences. [...]

Highlights of the last day or so

With the ban on electronic election advertising to kick in at midnight tonight, the Australian Financial Review reports that Labor’s spending on television advertising has been "more than double" that of the Liberal Party, which has struggled to raise money from corporate backers due to the apparent certainty of its impending defeat. Nonetheless, the Herald [...]

Highlights of week three-ish

I have naughtily neglected yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll of 778 voters conducted over the weekend ("for Channel Nine"), showing Labor leading the Coalition 44 per cent to 38 per cent on the primary vote and 55-45 on two-party preferred. Much is being made of a spike in the Greens’ vote from the 7-8 per cent [...]

Home straight

The Poll Bludger’s insufficiently proof-read upper house election guide is now available for viewing. It will be cleaned up and maybe expanded a little in due course. I will also be back in the land of regular internet access tomorrow, so campaign developments in the final week will be covered in a more timely fashion [...]