Comments on: Foiled one more time

By: bmwofoz

bmwofoz — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 08:42:00 +0000

The thing about the Greens is a large amount of their voters backed the Liberals in the Kennett years, so will they stay with the Greens or go back to the Liberals or even go to the ALP.

By: Howard C

Howard C — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 01:06:17 +0000

Remember with the Senate style Upper House voting, there is more of an incentive for the major parties to campaign in lower house seats they have no chance of winning.

By: Melb city

Melb city — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 02:22:27 +0000

Labor is pretty good at working the postal votes in the inner city it main set back is in the hospitals where many of the doctors are selective who they let in. That said I think those that vote early tend to know who they want to vote for. I do not think postal votes is as high as 15%. I will check

William I agree for the Greens to win the seats of Melbourne and Richmond they need all minor candidates preferences. They also need to top the liberal primary vote which they might not do in Melbourne. All depends on who hard the Liberals campaign. Many Liberal supporters see the Greens as a great threat to Victoria then the ALP and in the absence of the HTV card recommending preferences I think you will find a higher percentage will place the greens last. Yes I also think they are buying time. HTV Cards that are handed out on the day must be registered with the VEC deadline tomorrow. Do not be surprised if you see multiple HTV cards registered but not all printed or handed out. Odds of the Greens winning Melbourne 15% Richmond 25%

2002 saw the highest Green vote and they have been going backward ever since. 2004 Senate vote it dropped to around 8.5% Polls have them on 8.0% now. In 2002mthey had all the minor parties tryng to preference to them Family Fiorst is now actively campiaging against the Greens and their vote in Melbourne was higher then most think.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 10:05:46 +0000

Could, but postal, pre-poll, absent make up at most 15-20% of all votes. In rural electorates, the Labor vote on postals is usually very low compared to the booth vote. And you can be sure that it won’t be Labor candidates flooding rural electorate with postal vote applications. As I said, wait and see what is finally registered.

By: Lyle Allan

Lyle Allan — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 09:47:24 +0000

Thanks Anthony and Antony.
The fact is that the material on the web site IS being widely used. Pre poll voting has commenced and large numbers of electors have already voted. It is true that the registered material will matter, and that the Libs may yet preference in the four seats the Greens have a chance of winning if they get Liberal preferences. Nevertheless the how to votes on the web site of the ALP, that IS being used for pre poll voting, could still be influential in those seats where the ALP is preferencing the Libs rather than the Nats. That’s why Peter Ryan is so angry. So could the Liberal htv in Brunswick Melbourne Northcote and Richmond which is recommending Liberal voters make up their own mind. This is an implied suggestion to vote Greens in those seats, but how many Liberals will pick that up? My suspicion is that Liberal voters will vote either at random, or up or down the ticket, making a Greens victory in those seats unlikely.

By: Shallow Throat

Shallow Throat — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 09:30:41 +0000

Sorry for misspelling your name, Antony. I’m more used to dropping my ‘h’s than adding them.

By: Shallow Throat

Shallow Throat — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 09:29:29 +0000

Anthony is correct. Sources suggest that the Statewide HTVs of the Libs without specific preferences for Melbourne, Brunswick, Richmond and Northcote is simply a convenient holding pattern to buy more time until they decide whether or not to really shaft the Greens with their registered HTVs.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 04:50:43 +0000

Thanks Antony, I have done a bit of rewording.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Tue, 14 Nov 2006 21:11:09 +0000

Registration of how-to-vote material doesn’t close until Friday on my reading of the electoral act. It’s the registered material that will matter, not the state-wide material published on the websites.

By: Melbcity

Melbcity — Tue, 14 Nov 2006 19:41:52 +0000

Lyle the only reason Family First was elected is that the ALP fell below 30% the Libs above 43% and the greens fell short of the 9% threshold. If it was not for the DLP who topped up Family First above the Democrats who in turn topped up family first above the ALP that ALP preferences elected Family First. Two more percent or a change in the Democrats preference allocation the ALP could have held the sixth seat.

Having said that…

Has anyone viewed the registered HTV cards that have been submitted to the Electoral Office. If the Liberals do not correct preferences in Melbourne or Richmond then it makes it that much harder for the Greens to cause an upset. The Liberal Party could very well have registered a number of HTV cards and can/will hand out on the day.

The other question is how hard will the Liberal Party campaign in Melbourne and Richmond. If they lay low then the Greens chances increase. If they actively campaign to maximize public funding and their vote in the upper house then the Liberal party could very well top the Greens.

More work is needed.

http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com