Comments on: Highlights of week two-and-a-half

By: bmwofoz

bmwofoz — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 08:35:20 +0000

Blair has a point about Tullamarine in 1996, although the ALP had a dud candidate in David White, which might have cost votes.

I think its interesting we have seen no polling from seats like Bayswater, Frankston, Ferntree Gully.

The tollway issue alone isn’t the problem for the ALP, its a symbol of a broader problem, and that is the Government hadn’t delivered as much as promised.

Its now 7:35, I tip by this time next Saturday the Election will be called for the ALP.

By: Blair Trewin

Blair Trewin — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 02:58:25 +0000

That’s what everybody interpreted the Federal swings as, but in fact the swings were almost as big in other outer suburban areas of Melbourne which were nowhere near Eastlink (like Calwell). I’d estimate the amount attributable to the tollway as 1-2% at most – which is also consistent with the experience with Citylink in 1996 (everybody expected Labor to take Tullamarine easily that year, but they didn’t).

By: Peter Fuller

Peter Fuller — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 13:21:17 +0000

The better guide (than Council elections) for the impact of the tolls on Eastlink is the 2004 Federal election. Liberals made hay along the route, securing 2pp swings as high as 7.2% in Aston and 6.4% in Holt (narrowly retained by Labor. Only in LaTrobe was the swing 2.1% below the Victorian average of 3.2% (my estimate), and there a retiring Liberal Member and a strong Labor candidate distorted the more typical pattern.
My guess is that some of the heat was drawn out of the issue in that campaign, when the Liberals could at least plausibly suggest that a vote against Labor might lead to the abandonment of tolls. Now with the Liberals having reversed their opposition to tolls, I’d expect the “broken promise” element to have only limited impact.

By: Macedon Minder

Macedon Minder — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 13:01:46 +0000

Dave Barry, interesting character, has been on stress leave for most of the year, he is best mates with Steve or Jack Medcraft, his brother in law is Bill Kelty. I think he is a mixed up man.

By: Rebecca

Rebecca — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 03:16:27 +0000

I’m not sure Labor’s belated promise will do much to help their fortunes in Geelong; Anglesea Road is in the middle of nowhere, and it only highlights the bizarre siting of the entire ring-road all-along, and brings back memories of the Marshall station fiasco

It’s nice to see the Liberals taking the opportunity to plug some long-mooted public transport projects which Labor has slacked off on in outer Melbourne (and equally interesting to see the government’s pathetic response) – it will be interesting to see what this does for their fortunes in affected seats.

By: Christian

Christian — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 10:33:12 +0000

When do your tips for the various seats get put up?

By: Marcus

Marcus — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 05:16:11 +0000

Whitehorse council is at the terminus of the tollway, so the issue probably wouldn’t bite as deeply as in Knox, Monash, Dandenong and Frankston.

By: Melb city

Melb city — Thu, 16 Nov 2006 02:10:02 +0000

Good information not sure how many of these issues will effect voters intention. In 2004 the Liberal Party tried to running heavy on the Toll way issue for Local Council elections. Labor had its best return in whitehorse ever and the toll issue did not bite. I guess most don’t use the toll road so there is nothing to lose. Wheras tolling the westgate again would have a backlash although electronic tolling is more efficient and less costly to administer.

I am interested in you take on the Toxic Dump in Mildura and how that will effect the result in the northern Murray valley region. Not sure if if will effect the alpine regions or the area upstream…

I still am of the view that some punters will hedge their bets and vote to retain Labor as a means of keeping Howard, who has control of both houses in the Canberra, in check.

The fact that the polls are showing a consolidation of the major parties (92%) is another interesting factor. Again it would be great if the pollsters did an upper house poll broken down into the new upper-house regions

My assessment on the Newspoll outcomes on the upper house http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com

Comments welcomed