Comments on: Whistling in the dark

By: bmwofoz

bmwofoz — Mon, 20 Nov 2006 10:34:36 +0000

I know the Gay community doesn’t vote as a block, I feel Prahran will be moving back toward the Libs on Saturday.

By: Dave

Dave — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 06:08:49 +0000

bmwofoz, the ALP has never supported civil union or other rights, so why should the GLBTI vote fore them. I think now that their rights have been in the limelight more, (Stanhope, Howard and Bracks refusals, etc) they will vote against the ALP, maybe also Lib cos of Howard, but they might not vote FOR anyone as a group.

By: bmwofoz

bmwofoz — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 01:25:07 +0000

The Gay community don’t vote as a block, to show this the ALP failed to win Prahran with Joseph o’Reilly in 1999.

Prahran is a must watch seat next week.

By: Melb city

Melb city — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 23:55:48 +0000

Gary the comment is still missing. i think it is in moderation state because it had a link to the Herald Sun McNair Poll and other articles of interest.

I have updated by Upperhouse analysis to reflect on the McNair poll and also publihsed a short summary of the Praharan campaign. click on my name above to view.

By: Melb city

Melb city — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 23:49:29 +0000

Micheal you are overestimating the gay vote. They do not vote on block unless there is a major civil rights issue. The gay community represents what 2-3% of the electorate and they are split between Labor and the Liberals. Do not assume they are backing the Greens because the Green candidate is opening gay. if fact reports in the Herald Sun had just polarised the electorate against the Greens and left the gay community to face the fall out. The Greens are not in the race in Prahran and this is one of the inner city seats that I expect will go first. Its the litmus test always has been. If the gay community are directly attacked and their civil rights threatened the yes maybe there will be a coming together of like mined souls. But thank god that has not happened yet.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 23:32:26 +0000

Melb City, I think you will find one of your comments on McNair under “Going South”.

By: Melb city

Melb city — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 23:17:37 +0000

Guy Family first are not going anywhere. I have not seen one situation where they can leap-frog the pack to get elected. I have seen a situation where the DLP come from behind but that depends on a number of factors including Family First doubling their Senate vote which I do not see happening. Both Labor and the Liberals would also need to remain on the same levels of support reported in last weeks Newspoll 43% Labor 40% Liberal/NP. The McNair pol is showing the same result as reported in the Galaxy poll I would love to see the detail of the polling… McNairs credibility is on the line here. Again it would be best if the polls could provide a breakdown into the new upper-house regions because the Greens vote is all locked up in the inner city area. I do not think the Greens did well with reports about their candidate in Prahran. That sort of thing does not go down well with the broader community. Even if it is a beat-up.

By: Melb city

Melb city — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 23:07:28 +0000

Some posts are missing. I think posts with a link in them are held back waiting moderation. It’s a pity as I had prevbious posted a number of comments based on the McNair poll. Maybe william has not woken up as yet.

By: Melbcity

Melbcity — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 17:53:06 +0000

Update: November 19 The Herald Sun reports that the Liberal Party have opted for opportunism ahead of Victoria's business and economic interests in striking a preference deal with the Greens to place the Greens ahead of Labor in exchange for the Greens issuing a split ticket in a number of rural seats. This deal places the Greens back into contention for the seats of Melbourne and Richmond and possibly Northcote. This deal shows up the Greens for what they are and also brings tension within the Liberal Party/Business relationship. The Herald Sun also has published a recent McNair Gallop poll which reports a major shift in voter intentions and an unexpected reversal of voters intentions. If the Herald-Sun McNair poll is true then this is going to be a very close election indeed with the unexpected possibility that, as a result of the Liberal Party's preference deal, the Greens could play a major role in the formation of the next State Government. Labor's Bill Shorten publishes an opinion piece on the need to elect a Labor State Government as the only means of ensuring necessary checks and balances against a Howard Liberal Party dominated Federal Government.

By: Bort

Bort — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 14:25:20 +0000

Sunday Herald-Sun/Gallup Poll – November 19

Primary

ALP 39%
LIB/NP 46%

TPP

ALP 50.5%
LIB/NP 49.5%

7% swing against the ALP

Hmmmmmmmm indeed