Comments on: Highlights of the last day or so

By: Melb city

Melb city — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 04:51:52 +0000

Tuesday 28, 11:37AM Western Victoria Update:

The conjunction point between FF and the DLP is very close and a drift of preferences way from the DLP could see Family First rise above the DLP at present Family First (3.92%) and the DLP (4.06%) at the conjunction.

That’s close.

The ALP is comfortably ahead of the Greens at this point. But it is difficult to know A) what’s missing in the data and B) what the below the line preferences are doing.

This is the first optional preferential ballot in Victoria and many of the Green and other parties below the line votes could exhaust.

The other conjunction point between the National Party and the DLP is just as close with the DLP (8.0%) and the NP (7.9%). The DLP relies on preferences from the minor parties whose BTL vote could also exhaust.

Its a question of who is voting for who below the line… The combined ALP (9.04%) and Green (8.41%) at the third conjunction vote should see the Alp overt the line but again it depends on the BTL voting pattern. With optional preferential voting we could see things either stay the same or a dramatically altered position.

This is new territory and like mushrooms we are left in the dark and feed…

By: Melb city

Melb city — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 23:58:38 +0000

Correction: Southern metro… Whilst it is close the Democrats will deliver votes to the ALP which will see Thornley over the line. Southwick would need to opick up 75-100% of then 7000 jewish votes. We thing the spilit is more like 5000 to 2000…

It looked interesting for a while…

By: dinesh Mathew

dinesh Mathew — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 22:52:34 +0000

Billy,

Why would the Greens put these posters up attacking the Greens? pretty illogical no? I think it’s Labor flouting the law here (gasp!).

Time for a bex?

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 13:51:01 +0000

Councils allow those posters if you seek permission first. Individuals or groups have to abide by strict guidelines to put them on poles. They then have to promptly take them down after the election.

By: Billy

Billy — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 13:23:36 +0000

I’m pretty sure that posting election material on poles, which are publicly owned, is illegal, unless express permission is given by the owner of the poles, which is usually the council or some state govt body.

So either the Greens are breaking the law, or dodgy bureaucrats are letting them off the hook. I think the former is more likely.

By: A Pontian

A Pontian — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 09:50:09 +0000

Bob, the ALP have placed green triangles with Howards face on poles in Brunswick and North Fitzroy – yuo are party to a desperate lie that reveals the true nature of the people you serve.

By: petrouschka

petrouschka — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 08:19:11 +0000

Don’t listen to MUA, he’s retarded.

By: Tristan Jones

Tristan Jones — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 08:04:58 +0000

The Greens have a chance of winning both Melbourne and Richmond, they came close last time, it depends on the flow of Liberal preferences.

By: Politics_Obsessed

Politics_Obsessed — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 07:55:02 +0000

With 2 days to go until election – is the PollBludger going to make his calls or is this election too tight in most of the marginals? It would be an interesting feat to see the greens gain a lowerhouse seat and hold it beyond the next election. I don’t think they’ve ever managed this [excluding tassie].

By: Scott

Scott — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 07:04:58 +0000

Yeah. Big business, that wilderness society.