Comments on: Morgan’s last word http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/24/morgans-last-word/ Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:14:38 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: bmwofoz http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/24/morgans-last-word/comment-page-1/#comment-4878 bmwofoz Sat, 25 Nov 2006 05:41:55 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/426#comment-4878 My predictions ALP returned Greens to win Melbourne Liberals to gain Hastings Bayswater Mt Waverly Ferntree Gully South Barwon Kilsyth Gembrook Rippon Everlyn Seats to close to call Burwood Mitcham Forrest Hill Frankston Prahran Seymour Eltham Narracan Morwell Bellarine Bentleigh Mordallioc Richmond Mornington Box Hill Bass South Coast Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote Bayswater Hastings Mitcham Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates Narrie Warren North Narrie Warren South Cranbourne Hastings Yan Yean Melton Eltham Yuroke Tarneit My predictions

ALP returned

Greens to win Melbourne

Liberals to gain

Hastings
Bayswater
Mt Waverly
Ferntree Gully
South Barwon
Kilsyth
Gembrook
Rippon
Everlyn

Seats to close to call

Burwood
Mitcham
Forrest Hill
Frankston
Prahran
Seymour
Eltham
Narracan
Morwell
Bellarine
Bentleigh
Mordallioc
Richmond
Mornington
Box Hill
Bass
South Coast

Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch

These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote
Bayswater
Hastings
Mitcham

Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates

Narrie Warren North
Narrie Warren South
Cranbourne
Hastings
Yan Yean
Melton
Eltham
Yuroke
Tarneit

]]> By: bmwofoz http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/24/morgans-last-word/comment-page-1/#comment-4877 bmwofoz Sat, 25 Nov 2006 05:38:17 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/426#comment-4877 My predictions ALP returned Greens to win Melbourne Liberals to gain Hastings Bayswater Mt Waverly Ferntree Gully South Barwon Kilsyth Gembrook Rippon Everlyn Seats to close to call Burwood Mitcham Forrest Hill Frankston Prahran Seymour Eltham Narracan Morwell Bellarine Richmond Mornington Box Hill Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote Bayswater Hastings Mitcham Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates Narrie Warren North Narrie Warren South Cranbourne Hastings Yan Yean Melton Eltham Yuroke Tarneit My predictions

ALP returned

Greens to win Melbourne

Liberals to gain

Hastings
Bayswater
Mt Waverly
Ferntree Gully
South Barwon
Kilsyth
Gembrook
Rippon
Everlyn

Seats to close to call

Burwood
Mitcham
Forrest Hill
Frankston
Prahran
Seymour
Eltham
Narracan
Morwell
Bellarine
Richmond
Mornington
Box Hill

Anyone loooking for Federal implications watch

These three seats are open to a stong anti workchoices vote
Bayswater
Hastings
Mitcham

Seats below have young familys open to Interest rates

Narrie Warren North
Narrie Warren South
Cranbourne
Hastings
Yan Yean
Melton
Eltham
Yuroke
Tarneit

]]> By: Melb city http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/24/morgans-last-word/comment-page-1/#comment-4861 Melb city Fri, 24 Nov 2006 23:41:46 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/426#comment-4861 Family fiest will not win any seat. I would like to know under what circumstances this claim is made. I have not seen them come up on any of my analysis. It's one thing to say they will win but another to not say how or where. Family fiest will not win any seat. I would like to know under what circumstances this claim is made. I have not seen them come up on any of my analysis. It’s one thing to say they will win but another to not say how or where.

]]> By: Bort http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/24/morgans-last-word/comment-page-1/#comment-4843 Bort Fri, 24 Nov 2006 13:50:44 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/426#comment-4843 Interesting to note on the detailed story about the Morgan Poll, they are suggesting that Family First may end up holding the balance of power in the Upper House with a possible breakdown of - ALP 17 Liberal 16 National 3 Green 3 Family First 1 Interesting to note on the detailed story about the Morgan Poll, they are suggesting that Family First may end up holding the balance of power in the Upper House with a possible breakdown of –

ALP 17
Liberal 16
National 3
Green 3
Family First 1

]]> By: Bort http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/24/morgans-last-word/comment-page-1/#comment-4826 Bort Fri, 24 Nov 2006 08:16:40 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/426#comment-4826 4.8% swing then according to Morgan Uniform = 11 seats to the Liberals My final prediction LIB Gain (12) Evelyn Hastings Gembrook Kilsyth Ferntree Gully Mount Waverley Bayswater Eltham Morwell South Barwon Burwood Mitcham GRN Gain (1) Melbourne Nothing else changes Final ALP 49 LIB 29 NP 7 IND 2 GRN 1 The big thing for me will be to see what % swings happen in the seats in the 5.8-9.7% ALP range, the Libs need 4-5% in all those to setup for 2010 Upper House way too complicated and my abacus is broken 4.8% swing then according to Morgan

Uniform = 11 seats to the Liberals

My final prediction

LIB Gain (12)

Evelyn
Hastings
Gembrook
Kilsyth
Ferntree Gully
Mount Waverley
Bayswater
Eltham
Morwell
South Barwon
Burwood
Mitcham

GRN Gain (1)

Melbourne

Nothing else changes

Final

ALP 49
LIB 29
NP 7
IND 2
GRN 1

The big thing for me will be to see what % swings happen in the seats in the 5.8-9.7% ALP range, the Libs need 4-5% in all those to setup for 2010

Upper House way too complicated and my abacus is broken

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