10.55pm. I take it there will be no more updates from the ABC. My final thought for the time being is that this could be yet another cruel result for the Greens, who cannot be certainly of winning anything. The count for Melbourne has progressed a little further on the VEC site, and the 2PP count has Bronwyn Pike 1.9 per cent ahead, suggesting she is home and hosed. As for the upper house, at best they could get up in North Metro, East Metro and South Metro, but these seats are respectively at risk from the DLP, the Liberals and Labor. In fact, my own tip would be that they will only emerge with North Metro.
10.29pm. Slightly drunken note-taking from Antony Green’s call of the upper house board. Kerry O’Brien says “Labor strategists” believe Labor might win 20 or 21 seats and the Greens might not win anything. But on current information, the scoreboard reads: EAST VIC : 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Nationals. NORTH VIC: Labor 2, Liberal 2, Nationals 1. WEST VIC: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. EAST METRO: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony says, “strong chance of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor”. NORTH METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony didn’t mention the prospect of a DLP win. SOUTH-EAST METRO: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. SOUTHERN METRO: 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. But Antony tips that the Liberals will overtake the Greens. WEST METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. I personally was not expecting the Greens to win a seat here. Antony says there is a “chance” of a fourth Labor seat at the Greens’ expense, which is what I had predicted.
10.21pm. Labor won Bellarine quite easily, slightly contrary to my expectations. The Libs won Benambra quite comfortably after an early fright. Swing against Labor of 8 per cent in Bendigo East, but Labor up-and-comer Jacinta Allan still wins quite easily. Somewhat smaller swing of 5 per cent in Bendigo West. Good win for Labor in Bentleigh. Greens vote slightly up in Brunswick, so they still ran second, but not enough to trouble Labor. Inadequate swing against Labor of 1.4 per cent in Burwood. Steve Herbert might even pick up a swing in Eltham, making me look like a dill because I tipped him to lose. Evelyn one of my few calls for a Liberal gain which have come good. Liberal still ahead by 0.3 per cent in Ferntree Gully. Small swing to Liberal in Frankston, but nowhere near enough. Gembrook still very close. Not much trouble for Craig Ingram in Gippsland East. Liberals should get over the line to gain Hastings. Family First has somehow scored 12.6 per cent in the Labor stronghold of Kororoit. Bronwyn Pike’s primary vote in Melbourne is 46.3 per cent, which you’d think would be enough. Labor just ahead in Morwell; I don’t think much has changed in the lower house count for a while. Antony says there has been ‘a lot of slow counts’. Mount Waverley in doubt, but I would expect Greens preferences to get Labor over the line. The big surprise for me (and indeed for John Brumby) is the clear Labor defeat in Narracan. Labor did it easy in Northcote over the Greens. The Libs won the primary vote in Prahran, but the Greens were on 19.7 and Labor are home. Disappointing result for the Greens in Richmond, with the Labor vote up to 48.3 per cent. Nothing became of the Liberal threat to the Nationals in Shepparton, or the Liberal threat to Labor in South Barwon. Denis Napthine did it quite easily in South West Coast.
10.20pm. Still only 53.5 per cent counted in Melbourne, but the tide is unmistakably towards Labor.
10.01pm. Anthony van der Craats, who was a lone voice in his apparently correct call that Labor would hold Melbourne earlier in the evening, still thinks the DLP are looking good for a seat in Northern Metropolitan.
9.49pm. Antony Green doing the call of the board – always my favourite bit. Will take notes as it goes and pump them out in a minute.
9.48pm. I’ve now drunk that one beer too many, but from what I can gather of what Antony Green just said, his guess for the upper house is Labor 19, Liberal 13, Nationals 3, Greens 4, People Power 1. I would be surprised if one Greens seat and the People Power did not fall away in later counting.
9.38pm. I suspect currently in-doubt lower house seats are likely to remain so for this evening. Will continue to follow the upper house count.
9.28pm. The ABC projection still has People Power’s Gabriela Byrne on track to win a seat in Eastern Victoria. But we’re talking about 32,854 votes here, scarcely 10 per cent of the total. Their vote is on 3 per cent – I suggest that this is from rural booths and will come down when the big centres come in.
9.27pm. Steve Bracks delivering his victory speech.
9.25pm. The ABC computer has Labor’s lead over the Greens in Melbourne down from 0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent, but this is a contest where the computer is of less use as a guide than usual. The Liberal lead in Ferntree Gully has narrowed sharply, from 1.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Little change in Gembrook, where Labor holds a very fine lead.
9.17pm. Just having a look at Antony’s upper house projections – it appears that these are based on the actual upper house count, which is at a very early stage. At the moment: NORTH VIC, 2 Labor; 2 Liberal; 1 Nationals. EAST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 People Power. WEST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Nationals. NORTH METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. EAST METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. SOUTH METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. WEST METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. SOUTH-EAST METRO. 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. A couple of Greens wins there that would surprise me.
9.10pm. Similarly, Hastings is still down as doubtful on the ABC site, but the Liberals’ 1.2 per cent lead will be hard to reel in.
9.09pm. Labor 1.1 per cent ahead in Forest Hill, which you’d think would be enough.
9.08pm. The ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Melbourne, by 0.7 per cent.
9.07pm. I earlier said the Liberals had fallen behind in Ferntree Gully, but I may have read it wrong – they are 1.1 per cent ahead, not behind. No change in Gembrook, Labor still 0.3 per cent ahead. Labor has hit the lead in Mount Waverley – behind 0.1 per cent last I checked, they now lead by 0.3 per cent, and the trend seems to be heading in their direction. Labor 0.5 per cent ahead in Kilsyth.
9.06pm. Baillieu boasts of a “very significant swing against the government, of around 2 per cent”. Ptuh.
9.03pm. Ted Baillieu conceding defeat. Has he done enough?
9.00pm. Antony Green has just dropped into comments to alert us to the ABC’s upper house results.
8.58pm. Another addition to the ABC doubtfuls list is Melbourne, which has gone from Greens gain to Greens ahead – possible props to Anthony van der Craats, who appeared out on a limb earlier with his talk of a Labor win.
8.57pm. Labor’s lead in Prahran has fallen, such that the ABC computer has switched it from Labor retain to Labor ahead.
8.55pm. Results like the high CEC vote in Broadmeadows make it harder to extrapolate the upper house outcome than I would have thought. A DLP upset is not out of the question, but a Greens win is more likely.
8.53pm. Still a very low count in Melbourne – and as Antony Green points out, we are less experienced at reading Labor versus Greens swings than Labor versus Liberal swings. The margin has narrowed considerably and Bronwyn Pike is not gone yet. John Brumby says his scrutineers paint a different picture from Antony’s projections and they are a strong chance.
8.52pm. 4.5 per cent for the Citizens Electoral Council in Broadmeadows.
8.47pm. On the lower house vote, the results in the Northern Metropolitan upper house region are about 55.7 per cent Labor, 21.8 per cent Liberal, 15.3 per cent Greens. I’m about to have a play with those figures at the Upperhouse.info calculator.
8.40pm. Click here if you want early upper house figures. If you can make any sense of them, drop me a line.
8.38pm. The Liberals have fallen behind in Ferntree Gully and Gembrook – they formerly lead by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, and now trail 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent. Their lead in Mount Waverley has narrowed from 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent.
8.34pm. Jessica in comments asks for details on South Barwon. The Liberals have picked up a disappointing 2.8 per cent swing and will not win the seat. Returned member Michael Crutchfield has just appeared on ABC TV, vowing swift vengeance upon his enemies.
8.33pm. Yes, the Nationals contested 17 last time and 20 this time.
8.32pm. Aggregate Nationals vote up from 4.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent, although they may have contested more this time.
8.25pm. Kilsyth looking interesting: Liberals ahead on the primary vote; Family First have done almost as well as the Greens on the primary vote, so they won’t close the gap on preferences as easily as they’re used to.
8.25pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Morwell. So it would appear that the booths in towns like Traralgon have behaved very differently from the rural booths, and may be on their way to saving Brendan Jenkins.
8.23pm. Antony Green reckons Labor looks “pretty good” in Hastings, but that sounded like an overstatement at first – I now realise he meant only that they’re doing well to be in the hunt.
8.21pm. The ABC computer has downgraded Morwell from Liberal gain (which is wrong, because the Nationals are far ahead of them) to Liberal ahead; Forest Hill is now Labor ahead rather than Labor retain.
8.14pm. Self-flagellation time (because it’s all about me, you see). I was clearly wrong about Mildura (a Nationals gain), South Barwon and Eltham (retained by Labor), South West Coast (retained by Liberal), Morwell (won by the Nationals, although the ABC site says Liberals – presumably because it factored in a Labor versus Liberal two-party contest) and Rodney (which I said the Liberals would win from the Nationals, though I qualified it by saying it dependend on the Labor how-to-vote card, which I don’t know about). I picked the Liberals to win Ferntree Gully, Gembrook and Mount Waverley, but they are very slightly behind in each -by 0.1 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent.
8.12pm. The raw figures in Melbourne look all right for Labor, but it’s obviously the apartment blocks that are coming in first because Antony’s swing calculation is 10.6 per cent to the Greens.
8.10pm. Labor “ahead” in Ferntree Gully – by 0.1 per cent.
8.09pm. Both Brunswick and Northcote are now down as Labor retain on the ABC site, so the Greens have not pulled rabbits out of the hat there.
8.07pm. Despite the apparent win in Melbourne, the Greens do not seem to be doing quite as well as expected on some measures. I was told to expect that they would run second in Albert Park, but that’s not the case at the moment. Still too early to say anything about the upper house.
8.05pm. Richmond still down as doubtful on the ABC computer, but my own information is that Labor should win.
8.04pm. Primary vote totals with about a third counted have Labor on about 42 per cent, Coalition 40 per cent, Greens 9 per cent, Family First 4 per cent – roughly what the polls said, except Greens slightly lower and Family First higher.
8.03pm. ABC computer now has Bayswater as a Liberal gain.
7.59pm. Family First polling very well, in the 4 per cent ballpark. Preferences should prohibit them from winning an upper house seat.
7.58pm. John Brumby says Narracan is “a serious problem for us”. He is surprised, and so am I. The ABC has it as Liberal gain, which I hadn’t noticed before. ABC also has Morwell down as a gain for the Nationals, meaning they have picked up from seven to nine and might even retain party status.
7.56pm. Looks like Russell Savage really has lost Mildura to the Nationals, who actually look poised to increase their number of seats, in the lower house at least.
7.55pm. ABC has changed Benambra from Liberal ahead to Liberal retain.
7.54pm. Lineball in Mount Waverley – both margin and swing are 2.3 per cent.
7.54pm. ABC TV says only a small Liberal swing in Frankston (margin a bit over 5 per cent), at which the Libs were throwing money like it was going out of fashion.
7.53pm. Labor looking good in Bentleigh but likely to lose Bayswater.
7.48pm. Antony has helpfully extrapolated total results for the upper house regions – the Greens are higher than I figured in South Metro and lower in North Metro, possibly even low enough in the latter to not win the seat. But this could be distorted – for example, the Docklands booth is in but a lot of the Fitzroy/Collingwood booths are not.
7.47pm. Labor reportedly untroubled in Prahran.
7.44pm. Still can’t find complete results from the ABC site, but the doubtful seats include Ferntree Gully, Hastings, Kilsyth and Mount Waverley (Liberal leading), and Gembrook (Labor leading). Also in the mix are the Liberal seats of Benambra and Box Hill.
7.43pm. Labor at least holding their ground in the similarly marginal Eltham, which I had picked as a Liberal gain.
7.41pm. Labor holding their ground in Mordialloc, which required a swing of about 4 per cent to lose.
7.38pm. ABC computer calling Melbourne for the Greens.
7.37pm. Liberals look to have retained South West Coast, contrary to my quirky prediction. Still a lot of talk about Morwell, which could go to the Nationals.
7.36pm. Looking like a big swing against Labor in their very marginal seat of Kilsyth.
7.33pm. To those alarmed by the alleged Family First gain in Caulfield, Antony has confirmed it is a computer error.
7.33pm. Is it my imagination, or have the seat-by-seat results on the ABC site disappeared? Someone give me a link if they can help.
7.31pm. Fairly solid swing to the Libs in Gembrook, which they should gain.
7.28pm. Antony says an overall swing against Labor of 3 per cent, slightly at the lower end of market expectations. Bit over 10 per cent counted.
7.27pm. Antony’s computer has Evelyn as a Liberal gain.
7.26pm. According to Ian in comments, Jenny Macklin says it’s looking very good for Labor in Richmond.
7.25pm. More encouraging for Labor in Richmond – the Greens vote is down 5.5 per cent in the Richmond South booth, worth about 2 per cent of the total.
7.24pm. Hotham Hill booth in Melbourne, worth about 4 per cent of the total, also showing strong enough results for the Greens to win them the seat.
7.20pm. Bit more than 10 per cent counted in Forest Hill – Libs ahead on raw figures, but Antony calculates an inadequate 3.7 per cent swing. The margin is a bit over 5 per cent.
7.20pm. Antony Green pretty much calling the election for Labor.
7.19pm. Ian in comments says Russell Savage has conceded Mildura, suggesting it might not be such a bad night for the Nationals after all. I would have held off a bit longer if I were Russell.
7.18pm. Antony’s computer calling Rodney for the Nationals – this was the one seat where Labor was directing preferences against them, unless I’m much mistaken.
7.16pm. ABC looking at Benambra, tipped by some as a possible upset Labor win. There is in fact a swing to the Liberals. No chance of Bill Baxter winning the seat for the Nationals.
7.16pm. Early results in South Barwon show a smaller swing against Labor than I anticipated.
7.13pm. Big swing to the Liberals in Caulfield, where they seemed to be campaigning harder than they needed to be. At least that’s what Antony Green says – Robert Doyle says he hears the opposite. My money’s on Antony.
7.12pm. The large-ish Docklands booth in Melbourne is in, but it’s new and can’t be compared with an old result. Liberal 39.5, Labor 35.1, Greens 23.0 – remembering this is a very different area from the rest of the seat.
7.10pm. Uneven results in Mount Waverley – small swing to Labor in a smallish booth, big swing to Liberal in a bigger one.
7.07pm. Similar swing in the similarly marginal Kilsyth, off slightly fewer votes.
7.05pm. One booth in from Ferntree Gully (worth 1.6 per cent); Antony calculates the swing at 2.3 per cent, making it very close.
7.05pm. A quite large booth in Hastings has Family First on an impressive 6.6 per cent; Labor down 1.1 per cent, Liberals down 4.4 per cent, Greens down 2.5 per cent.
7.03pm. First booth in from Bayswater looks promising for the Liberals.
7.00pm. John Brumby sounding slightly more optimistic about Evelyn than I indicated.
6.58pm. Big early swing to Ted Baillieu in Hawthorn.
6.58pm. 4.7 per cent counted in Evelyn, 3.2 per cent swing to the Liberals – enough to win them the seat.
6.58pm. And now Savage says “the trends are” that he will lose.
6.57pm. Still early days, but indications Russell Savage is far from home and hosed in Mildura.
6.56pm. 3 per cent counted in Macedon, Labor holding firm.
6.55pm. Narracan up to 4.0 per cent counted, almost enough to be interesting, shows a 10 per cent swings to the Liberals – but these would be regional booths, with Labor’s strong area of Moe still to come.
6.54pm. John Brumby also notes strong Greens performance in Mount Waverley.
6.53pm. First booth in from Melbourne, worth about 200 votes, has Labor down 6.5 per cent and the Greens up 2.2 per cent, confirming that Bronwyn Pike is in trouble.
6.50pm. Less than 2 per cent counted in Ripon, swing to the Liberals just under 2 per cent.
6.43pm. By my reckoning the first booth in Mount Waverley has Labor steady on the primary vote and as much as 4 per cent on two-party. But we’re talking about 1 per cent of the vote here.
6.41pm. Ditto John Brumby’s call of a fall in the Liberal primary vote.
6.41pm. Robert Doyle speaking of early results flowing against Russell Savage, sounding a little too cocky a little too early for my money.
6.40pm. Very early Seymour results (1.0 per cent), Antony’s computer calls a 6.2 per cent swing to Labor. There are three booths here.
6.39pm. 0.9 per cent counted in Mildura. Obviously a strong Nationals booth – they strongly lead independent member Russell Savage, who I do not expect to be troubled.
6.39pm. Don’t listen to me – Antony Green’s computer shows a swing to the Nats. The figures are much too small to be meaningful.
6.36pm. Very early, very small number of votes in Lowan (one of the few safe Nationals seats) suggest a drop in the Nationals vote.
6.30pm. Votes are in from the Mount Buller booth in Benalla – all 28 of them. Just thought I’d mention it.
6.28pm. Seven booths allegedly in from quite a few places – obviously a test of some sort. Looking like the VEC site will not be providing booth results, unless I’m missing something.
6.16pm. Front page of the VEC results page says seven booths are in from Scoresby and Bayswater, which sounds a bit unlikely. In any case, no results are up.
6.02pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election night coverage, live from the salubrious Richmond Hill Hotel (three stars, budget rooms from $45 a night). Polls are now closed, and the very first results should be online in about half an hour.
259 Comments
Hopefully the ABC will be publishing full distributions for the LC. Unfortunately, it relies on me running the data through my laptop and then e-mailing to Brisbane for publication. So, with my on-air committments, the publication might be a bit intermittent.
Just changed my time-stamp to EST, much as it sticks in my Western Australian craw.
Question is why is the VEC not providing polling booth break-down for the legislative council.. I will also be pumping teh resulst thourgh my database and will be happy to submit the results for publication .
Question do you want to include all the below the line votes and treat them as above tyeh line votes (In most cases they will be locked in) or should we exlude them and just use the above the line data for the first pass???
below the line data can not be processed until the VEC provides detailed preference data. but juding by Mr Tullys recent statements it looks as though he is not prepared to open and transparent system.
“Just changed my time-stamp to EST” – common decency is all, William.
Good Evening all!
It should be an interesting night.
Once again, thanks William for the great job you’re doing here!
William, I admire your dedication once again in this election!
I’ll be keeping an eye on your blog throughout the night.
Always of interest, so keep up the good work.
hear hear one of the best blog on the election process. Well done
Antony o you know how and where the e-Voting data will show up. Is it considered as pr-polling data or ordinary votes. I have just realised that they are not seperated? In theory this information should be the first available? Any information?
Hello all, I would like to know which booths are in for Seymour, Savage looks in some trouble, But I suspect will survive.
Why aren’t the ABC providing seat-by-seat results as they come in on the website, as they’ve done for all elections in recent memory? The alphabetical list is next to useless, especially as it hasn’t been updated yet.
Look again now Rebecca – the list is still alphabetical, but there are results.
Better than nothing, but it’s still more confusing and harder to keep up with. I’m a bit bemused why the ABC’s changed the system.
Russell Savage on 774 (via ABC News Radio) has conceded MIldura. He says that he has one result from a both which has “been a bit of a litmus test” in the past and his vote is down from 50% to 25% on primaries. Vote has gone mainly to Nats some to Libs who will pref Nats and some to ALP who will pref him.
Jenny Macklin on 774 reports
Richmond
25% counted – ALP scrutineers report Greens 19% and ALP 52%
Mlebourhe ius showing 10% to Labor. Greens not likely to won the seat. Green vote not transfering to the lower house…
I have noticed a delay in the booth reulst the summary says x booths and x electortaes recorded but only one has details… There is some kind of delay in the processing. Upoperhouse votes comming in slower as expected.
Has anyone noticed that the ABC is calling Caulfield as a win for the Family First candidate, who seems to be leading on primaries with quite a bit counted? What on earth is going on out there?
Electoral commissionbhas a different view of Caufield with 20% counted
SHARDEY, Helen Liberal 3475 49.76%
LABONNE, Eric FAMILY FIRST 116 1.66%
CUSWORTH, Steve ALP 2250 32.22%
JOB, Peter Greens 1142 16.35%
Yes a timing wrror in the data import. Highly unlikely unless the whole congregation voted in one booth.
Red faces at ABC Radio 774 – Caulfield to Family First
Jon Faine rang the Lib member for Caulfield on the assumption that she losing the seat to Family First but, whilst on the phone, new figures come in:
Caulfield
15% vote counted: 17% Green vote; 49% Lib;
Lib member says, yes but large pre-Poll blah blah
Faine confesses that his early figures had her losing the seat to Family First but latest figures more like last time.
Lib says, “I wondered why you had called.”
The whole ABC site looks mucked up for me: all the results repeated three times, but sometimes with dfferent swings attached…
Eltham is holding ground which is a good sign. The swing is not as bad as we thought would be the case. Third Terms are always the worst.
Lupton is doing well in Prahran The inner city dump is not on. Great news. Question is what will happen to in the upperhouse. Voters may be inclined not to vote Green in the lower but might in the upper
Richard Di Natale Greens candidate for Melbourne interviewed on ABC 774
Jenny Macklin says ALP scrutineers report 4 booths
ALP 1400 to Greens 1100
Di Natale says his scrutineers report 5.5% swing to Greens
Why does the VEc not provbide polling booth data or a drill down from the districts screen. bad design… Does the ABC provie poling booth data?
No, the ABC has never had booth data.
The Liberal Party is ahead of the Green sin Richmond which means Labor will be safe win…
ABC – I’m looking at
http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/printfriendly.pl?http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/results/changing.htm
Current state is:
[This is the print version of story http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/results/changing.htm
Changing Seats
Electorates where the sitting member is likely to be defeated.
26.1% counted.
Last updated Sat Nov 25 07:45PM
Time Count
% Electorate Seat
Held By Margin 2PP
% Swing Predict
19:28 11.6 Melbourne ALP 1.9 53.7 5.6% to GRN GRN GAIN
19:29 23.5 Bayswater ALP 2.7 55.5 8.2% to LIB LIB GAIN
19:36 54.6 Evelyn ALP 0.3 53.9 4.2% to LIB LIB GAIN
19:17 19.2 Ferntree Gully ALP 2.3 50.7 3.0% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:36 18.0 Gembrook ALP 1.6 50.4 2.0% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:28 14.9 Hastings ALP 0.9 50.8 1.7% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:28 27.3 Kilsyth ALP 2.1 50.8 2.9% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:29 35.7 Mount Waverley ALP 2.3 50.0 2.3% to LIB LIB AHEAD
19:37 13.6 Narracan ALP 6.8 54.3 11.1% to LIB LIB GAIN
19:35 38.7 Mildura OTH 18.4 56.2 24.6% to NAT NAT GAIN
19:35 24.3 Morwell ALP 4.9 52.9 7.8% from ALP NAT GAIN
© 2006 Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Melbourne a safe seat for the ALP a bad result for the Greens… I am happy to call it a win for the ALP
Great work, Ian. Particularly keen to hear what they’re saying on ABC Radio because I’m concentrating on the television.
Not saying you’re wrong Anthony, but nobody else seems to be saying that.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/results/alphapredict.htm
Has a full list of seats. Not terribly up to date, though.
ABC cuts to reporter at Liberal Party party.
She says Ted Ballyhoo looked in earlier and went back to his electorate to await the verdict. Did say that there would be no singing and dancing tonight – this is the serious end of the campaign!
Thanks Leo, you’re a life saver.
Who is the biggest loser?
Is it Mayne and his “People’s Power”?
Overall a very good result for the ALP, the Liberals have done no better than the ALP in 1996
Morwell
ABC Radio rings Nat candidate who says he is “pleasantly surprised” by his vote.
Latest ABC figures seem to suggest that ALP is in trouble but the swing is to the Lib not the Nat.
Seems the published figures are from strong Nat areas and the booth-to-booth comparison favours Libs.
Quite a respectable result for the Liberals,.
The nationals good result surprised me, they gained MIldura from Russel Savage, retained Rodney and I think they gained Morwell as well.
William maybe we should start a new thread. Melbourne is a safer win for teh ALP, also is Richmond and Prahran looks safe. Unfortuneatly nI can not look at polling place results the VEC web site is not that good.
No surprises in the Upper-house. Although Family First is polling wel the expected results will not change Greens 2 (South and North Metro) In the North Metro ALP 3 Lib 1 Green 1, Southeren ALP 2 Lib 2 Green 1
Western Merto and Western Vic to hard to tell
All other seats Victoria ALP2 Lib 2 NP 1 (I would guess NP in West Vict also)
South Eastern ALP 3 Liberal 2.
Eastern Lib 3 ALP 2. Newspoll is about right.
West metro ALP 3 maybe 4 if not Liberals 2
Robert Doyle (sound feed from ABC to ABC Radio) “not particularly happy” with results. I didn’t get out so that we could do about the same as last time. Too many concentrating on their own pre-selections and “protecting their own bums”.
Popping in to say hello to all at this pre-eminent of election websites. Many congratulations to William on a magnificent effort this Vic election.
Anyone watching the ABC coverage has heard Robert Doyle go ballistic about shadow ministers who did a total of ten hours policy work over four years and say the Libs won’t win in 2010 and should be looking at 2014.
It seems the biggest surprise in the election might be the lack of surprises, with not as big a swing as the so-called experts at The Age predicted.
I won’t replicate William’s magnificent efforts over at the OC but will pop in with tidbits when I hear them.
One interesting thing is the booth in state seat of Melbourne, Docklands, full of apartment dwellers, where the Libs got 40%.
Also, in Northcote I hear that the Greens challenge has failed, with Labor winning on primaries.
Will come back through the evening.
Good on you William,
Kirstie Marshall in trouble in Forest Hill. Will depend on Family First Preferences.
Northern Vic string NP vote (Currently out polling the Liberals) Minor Parties no effect… Looks like the VEC illegal pre-counting was right..
The Dockland booth doesn’t surprise me, if anything its looking like a new Southbank booth which favors the Liberals.
I think Pike might survive in Melbourne
The ALP should be delighted with the result in Prahran, Bentleigh and Mordiallioc.
bmwofoz,
Praharan, Bentleigh & Mordialloc all had strongl Liberal members last time, and their personal vote is now lost. But so did Ferntree Gully & I’m suprised the Libs have come so close there. They seem to be doing ok in the outer east.
Nice to see frank talking Michael Crutchfield Labor moderate do well in South Barwon despite the commentariat writing him off.
He can now start using his Blackberry again.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2006/07/dude-state-mp-talks-frankly.html
I’m interested to know the results for South Barwon and I can’t seem to find them..is there much of a swing against Michael Crutchfield? ABC has it down as a Labor retain, and I expected a large swing against him, but I’m hearing this isn’t the case?
Antony did you bribe the VEC?
There web site sucks big time.. Millions of dollars for what?
Jessica, see the top of the page.
Thanks William. He really is an absolute loon, that Michael Crutchfield. I understand Bellarine is an ALP retain, any swing to Don Gibson? I’m a big fan of Lisa Neville.
The ALP’s Syrian spy Khalil Eideh has claimed a scalp.
Labor’s strong candidate in Caulfield seemed to do well, according to my sources down there, on the booths today but will be slowed down considerably by the pre-polls where many observant Jewish voters vote.
They expect a similar result to last time.
Cr. Peter Clark is on tele now for the Libs and looks very dirty about life, after failing to win a preselection.
He’s pouring crap on factional foes at 104 Exhibition St and praising his factional ally Red Ted Baillieu.
This is nearly as vicious as the maneuvering for Ministerial spots will be as of Sunday.
As the smoke clears …
ALP returned to government with large majority in lower house.
Libs make some gains but not as many as they needed for credibility.
Greens fail to live up to expectations.
Nats stopped the rot.
ALP has lost to the Libs in:
Evelyn and Narracan
Too close to call:
ALP may lose to Greens in Melbourne.
Lib may win from ALP: Bayswater, Ferntree Gully, Hastings.
Nats have won Mildura from the “independent”.
Just loooked at the numbers there, this is how it looks
EM 2 ALP 3 Lib
EV 2 ALP 2 Lib 1Nat
NM 3 ALP 1G 1 Lib
NV 1 ALP 2 Nat 1Lib (need to do more sums)
SEM 3 ALP 2 Lib
SM 2 ALP 2 Lib 1 G
WM 3 ALP 1 Lib 1 G (unless Libs pref ALP -> 4 ALP)
WV 2 ALP 2 Lib 1 Nat
I’m listening to Robert Doyle complaining about how they won’t form government until 2014 and how the other party officals making brave comments about the situation won’t help. So i’m wondering, is Doyle saying that the Libs won’t form coaltion with the Nationals because if they did the LIB/NAT are well within strikeing distance for 2010.
For what it’s worth on the Upper House thus far..
East Metro
3 Lib, 2 ALP
East Vic
2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Nat
North Metro
3 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Green
North Vic
2 Nat, 1 ALP, 1 Lib
SE Met
3 ALP, 2 Lib
South Met
2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Green
West Met
3 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Green
West Vic
2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Nat
Someone called me and said Antony Green was calling Melbourne a close call. no way a clear win for Bronwyn Pike and the ALP. I repeat NO Greens in the Lower House. POike will cross the line on FF preference and pick upo mor on KV and Liberals. A swing to her of 3-4%
Cameron Eastman – Family First on ABC Radio
Jon Faine: Your vote nowhere above 5%
CE: we’ve doubled our vote from 1.9% in last Senate election.
JF: you are not winning a seat anywhere.
CE: we think that we’ve got votes below the line.
Baillieu about to concede on TV and then Bracks live from Williamstown.
Western Victoria Upper ALP 2 Lib 2 NP 2…
The LC count is now up with Pref distributions. Can’t help with the lower house sorry. Some net experts pulling their hair out atm.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/results/default.htm
DLP a head of the Greens in the Northern Metro Greens not elected on primaries.
Prahran tightening doesn’t surprise because its really two seats with very strong ALP booths in the south while the northern booths are very Liberal.
The Liberals have underperformed in the outer east.
May I briefly intercede on your excellent election fun and post a reciprocal note as your own Alexander Drake has on the British site :
http://www.politicalbetting.com
Despite the title the site is non direct profit making site dedicated mainly to the British politics and opportunities to make the odd penny or two.
Those with an interest in either are warmly invited to join our daily discussions. We are an eclectic bunch !! …… just don’t mention the cricket !!
Greens possible win in Western Metro ALP 3 Lib 1 Green 1
Most of the ABC commentators are talking this up as ‘a disaster’ for the Liberals.
I was a bit surpirsed. I’d have thought winning Narracan was a big plus for them, and got some big swings in other seats. The swing is lower in marginals but they could still pick up Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Forerst Hill, Hastings and Ferntree Gully. Nationals possibly winning Mildura and Morwell, neither of which was expected.
SO possibly a net gain of 10 seats to the Coalition. Hard to call it a disaster.
North Vic is the one I still need to add up.
Last seat between Libs (.68), ALP(.29) , Greens(.36)
de Pieri with 0.13 quotas prefs Greens, Lib
Country Alliance with 0.14 prefs ALP, Lib
DLP with 0.11 prefs Libs
FF with 0.20 prefs Libs
Looks like the Libs have the last seat.
Then I update and the Nats vote drops to 1.85 quotas.
Eatern Metrio 10% counted 2 ALP 3 Lib
But there’s no Coalition. The Libs and Nats have spent the campaign blueing. What’s saved the Nats from near extinction is Labor preferences.
I’m with the commentators – hopeless performance from the Tories.
National only leading with 17.67% of total vote in chase for Western Victoria’s last seat in the upper house against the DLP 15.62% by entring current figures into the Upperhouse caluctors.
Southern Metro low county but looks like 2 ALP 2 Lib 2 GRN
My figures are with 20% of the vote counted.
Sorry Southern Metro low vote (4%) too early 2 ALP 2 1 Green
Marcus, I don’t know which parallel reality you’re in where the Libs have picked up 10 seats. Over in this plane of existence it looks like they’ve picked up 3 and their primary vote has actually declined.
I wonder how much longer Baillieu will remain leader after this disaster. Wasn’t this going to be the “Robert Dean” correction election?
I need to o Northernh Metro again. More votes required. Currennty DLP on top…
I’m confused by the ABC Upper House figures – I’m presuming the distribution is on the basis of the votes counted – it couldn’t be 100% surely?
Its early day low vote tally. Western Victoria 8% NP eleted 2 ALP 3 LIB
Hahaha parallel reality indeed. Memo to Ted Baillieu: 2% is not significant, you are dreaming. I thought it was quite a gracious speech though. Libs have buckleys and none of winning in 2010 if all they have achieved is a 2% swing overall.
Where are those ABC LC figures coming from? The ABC site is still blank, despite having figures earlier on in the night.
Marcus, I think its a poor result for the Liberals, for several reasons.
1) The age of the Government
2) the swing is smaller than what the ALP recieved in either 1996 or 1999
3) The Liberals won the campaign
I think Baillieu will remain leader, while the ALP will need to lift its game or it will struggle come 2010
Depending on the order the minor players go out, the Country Alliance could pick up the last seat. They collect prefs from FF, DLP, PP, SdP, which add up to over 0.6 quotas.
In Northern Victoria, with 18% of the vote counted and a obvious conservative bias still remain in the figures, the CA get elected with only 2% of the vote. With 2 LIB, 1 NAT, and 1 ALP.
Lyn Allison on ABC Radio
John Faine: our computer lumps the Dems in with the “Others” – what have you got?
LA: looking about 2%; doing better in southern other than other regions;
we can take some confidence overall that the Green vote is down and that voters are coming back to the major parties;
JF: Family First?
LA: still getting votes based on their name; got a good run in the media; may have reached their peak.
The Liberals have picked up 3 so far (I think) Narracan, Evelyn and Bayswater. They’re apparently leading in Hastings and FTG.
I think about 4 other seats: Forest Hill, Mt Wav, Gembrook, Kilsyth are very tight. So potentially 9 gains for the Liberals, plus 1 or 2 from the Nats. Now this is far short of the 20-odd they needed for victory but is hardly a ‘disaster’.
I qualify this by saying I am an ex-Melbournite living in the ACT, so I haven’t really been across the campaign. From the little I heard everyone was expecting Labor to lose around 7-8 seats and that’s roughly what happened.
western Metro 22% counted ALP 3 Lib 2 Grn 1
Northern 17% ALP 3 Lib 1 DLP 1
Not sure about Antony’s figures in East Metro as I think the Libs are in front by 2% from the Greens. Only a quarter of the vote counted though.
That was Northern Metro 17% ALP 3 Lib 1 DLP 1
East Metro Lib 2 ALP 2
Anthony is well behind
Sorry Antony is behind. I am pumping…
There is something wrong with the ABC UH count in East Vic.
FF ABC=1205 VEC=4153
PP ABC=1004 VEC=883
My calculator is showing PP as no chance.
Eastern metro 23% counted ALP 2 Lib 3 Above the kline votes only
Big shock in North Metro. with the DLP having 5% of the vote and a easy seat of preferences over the Greens with 25% counted.
just came back from work – not bad – People Power got an upperhouse seat in eastern victoria – according to ABC site but on the Upperhouse.info site it says it’s a mistake and to try the speakers calculator to prove it … and it shows a nationals candidate – not pp – getting the fifth seat – am trying to read all this at once so bear with me if im behind – well that’s 2 independants down from the original 1999 3… JK must be proud…. when will the last one go?
The Greens in big trouble. May not actually win a single seat.
If People Power win a seat anywhere I will dance a jig naked in Federation Square
A twenty seat or so majority in the lower house of 88 says it all really. I am disappointed with the Greens vote but they have kept the Tories on the outer.
Western Victoria 28% counted ABL votes only ALP 2 Lib 2 NP 1
I’m following North Vic, and the numbers keep changing.
2nd ALP, Green, and CA each get around half a quota.
If ALP goes out first, CA wins the 4th seat.
If Greens go out first, ALP wins the seat.
If CA go out first, the Greens get the seat.
I could be wrong, I’m just doing this in Excel
What without even a game on, Andrew? Not like you.
With that news Andrew we are all praying that People Power don’t win.
I’m signing off.
The “too close to calls” will depend on recounts and pre-polls. The Legislative Council will depend on more votes being counted and then distributions.
NSW is mere months away . . . .
I can’t see how the Greens can win Melb, no matter what the ABC computer says. The swing is about 3%, the ALP has 46% of the primaries, and the VEC TCP is 47%.
In the LC, the cut-up shows Greens winning one seat in EMET, NMET, SMET, WMET and maybe SEMET. About 100,000 votes counted in each so far
The results in the LaTrobe Valley (Narracan & Morwell) are very interesting…I think we’ll hear much more of this….a backlash from coal mining communities about the ALP’s anti-coal stand? They better tread carefully… It seems cheap populism can cut both ways.
If People Power win a seat anywhere I will dance a jig naked in Federation Square
Go Stephen Mayne you good thing… on second thoughts it would be AL dancing in the nip. Not a pretty sight.
Costar is way out. BTL Votes will not favour the ALP… ALP will have
Metro East 2, North 3, South East 3, South 3, East 2. Vic 2, 2, 2 total 19
NP 3 Grns 1 DLP 1… Seriously the DLP is looking good. Again
South 10% vote counted Greens nmiss out. Again only ABTL votes
Advice from contacts is teh Greens could lose all…
will i counted earlier in the night 19 lab 14lib 2 nat 4 gr 1pp – where did the lib disappear and the nat gain?
NSW will be more interesting next year… I want to see the Greens take on Labor in Marrackville [ the local council with the same name is controlled by the greens]
I’m following North Vic, and the numbers keep changing.
Gee what an insight. Reminds me of a RL commentator in Newcastle (that’s New-car-sell NOT New-cassel for you Vics) who famously declaimed in a call of a very close Grand Final (Rosellas v Goannas) that “Every time I look at the clock it gets closer to full time”.
how can you say it will be more interesting in Marrickville, given that these figures show the Greens have gone nowhere at all?
Looks like DLP has won in North Metro.
Aargh, DLP victory, argh!
Hi all!
Has anyone else noticed the lack of actual seat by seat results on the ABC election website? They seem to be having computer problems over there.
I’ve just been over to the Victorian electoral commission site – much more up to date figures.
The ALP has definitely lost 3 seats: Evelyn, Bayswater and Narracan.
Of those in doubt: the Liberals only lead in Hastings.
Labor has small leads in Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully, Forest Hill and Gembrook.
Morwell seems to be all over the place.
And, Melbourne is too close to call.
So, I’d predict Bracks ends up with 55-57 seats eventually.
btw There’s no way PP has won in East Vic.
“Advice from contacts is teh Greens could lose all…”
You can’t lose what you never had to begin with.
Evan, you can get the results for all lower house seats on the ABC website here:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/results/alphapredict.htm
Am I then only one still here…
DLP???? erm is that like Democratic Labor Party as Gair, Kane and the rest of the papist crew?
Ould red socks will be crowing tomorrow that’s fer shure.
I knew south of the Murray was a bit strange but this is carrying it a bit far.
Am I then only one still here…
No but you should change your deodorant…
Come now Anthony, comments are coming in at about one per minute.
I am processing tyeh Above the line. and reportsing as and when I pull up new results here giys. the Greens are in big trouble.. The only small party that has a good showing is the DLP in Northern Metro. Browyn Looks safe in Melbourne with a TPP of 51.5% THE VEC WOULD NOT PROVIDE DATA ON NUMBER OF THE POSTALS ISSUED WHICH HAS THE PARTY NOT HAPPY AT THEM..
I AM WAITING FOR AN APOLOGY FROM THE COMMISSONER…
MY ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY SENIOR ALP PEOPLE. I HAD THE GREENS DOWN AS A WIN IN THE WEST METRO BUT THEY SAY THEY HAVE BETTER DATA. WHICH MKES SENCE BIGGEST BOOTHS NOT IN…
East Metro 3 Lib 2 ALP
William can you call me on my Melbourne Number… Same as before
2 Lib 2 ALP 1 Green in West Vic
See the night isn’t a total washout for the Greens.
The Melbourne seat only shows 53% of the vote counted and 6 booths still to report? Jenny macklin was calling it a line ballabout an hour ago? What is happening/ Carrier pigeons to report counts from inner city melbourne? Chardonnay swilling byt eh people doing the count?
Seriously des anyone have a clue?
“Interesting” reporting from the ABC. If Mark Latham had won swing this large in 2004 would it have been a “devastating loss”?
“Interesting†reporting from the ABC. If Mark Latham had won swing this large in 2004 would it have been a “devastating loss�
Sheesh… and I thought it was only lefties that kept on bringing up cold cabbage.
DLP got in nicely – prefs from FF, ALP, Lib, and no close calls. I’ll have another look at North Vic…
yes it is a wi for Pike. Liberal preference leak big time and all of Family First flow to her. A safe win… hard to peg back a TTP lead of 1.5%. Just spoke to her camaign office. they are not happy with teh VEc for not providng Postal Vote data as requested… WHY IT WAS NOT AVAILABLE I CAN ONLY ASSUME WAS DUE TO POOR MANAGEMT
South Metro 3 Lib 2 ALP
However very close. Greens may yet win.
Mark, thank you for the link to the ABC site.
The Vic Electoral Commission site seems more up to date though.
Another fine job tonight from William!
I’m looking forward to his work during the New South Wales election in March 2007(the state I live in).
DLP with a seat?
I take great care to vote below the line mainly to make sure I put DLP last of all.
So it’s only above the line voters for ALP and Lib that get the DLP anywhere. Shame.
People Power have polled very strongly (snigger)
This is without doubt the most boring state election in years. When the small but perfectly formed one calls it at 10% of the count it’s boring. So we are left with the likes of Melbtitty taking shots at The Greens… I mean like as if we didn’t know already that only 9% of the population can think for themselves.
Looking at the overall pattern of total votes across the state for the lower house both Family first and Greens voters have every reason to be cranky – 15% of the population do not have a representative of theri views in the parliament while the National Party with just over 5% has at least 8 members.
Anthony you are an excellent judge but could it really be that the DLP will get elected?
In my experience, these freak wins for micro-parties tend to come unstuck in late counting.
People Power have polled very strongly (snigger)
Profound comment that. At least they stood for something which is more than can be said for some people. Andrew it’s you I’m looking at…
Labor is set for 20 maybe 21 depending on Western Victoria.. Antony Green is way out. Spent too much been talking to the VEC too much…
AGAIN I EXPRESS MY STRONG CONCERN THAT THE VEC WOULD NOT PROVIDE OR PUBLISH THE NUMBER OF POSTAL VOTES THAT HAD BEEN ISSUED RAISING ON GOING CONCERN ABOUT THE VEC MANAGMENT OF THE ELECTION.. NOT HAPPY TULLY
Evan I agree [i also reside in nsw] – Nsw will be interesting as it was with WA in 2005 – the only really close state elections that could go down to the wire .. speaking of which… what happened to that WA ALP guy in the midst of the Burke v Carpenter stuff? Did he resign as memeber and MP?
Not to be taken seriously – boring? What about Tas 2006… status quo! Now that’s boring.
SE Metro – 3 ALP 2 Lib
On primary no preferences.
North Vic figures have changed.
ALP and Green climbed well ahead of CA.
But the Nats dropped to 1.42q (they were at 2, then 1.7), so they go out way earlier, electing a Lib, and their leftovers will put CA ahead of Greens, who then go out sending most of their prefs to ALP, who would get the last seat.
Eric no way.. NP win for sure…
What do People Power stand for?
I hadn’t figured that out despite looking at them closely.
And yes William is probably right, but a DLP victory would be funny. Possibly the funniest event in the history of modern politics.
I am processing the data not some tea leaves reading..
Looking at the overall pattern of total votes across the state for the lower house both Family first and Greens voters have every reason to be cranky – 15% of the population do not have a representative of theri views in the parliament while the National Party with just over 5% has at least 8 members.
Good point. There is little doubt that we should move in all states to a unicameral house with multi member electorates and if you have to have an upper house – one that has a more or less appointed membership of the great and good – much like Dail Eireann.
Thinking about this – truly representative state governments may be the only way Federalism might survive the centralisation tendencies of all major partys and the High Court.
Politics_Obsessed: I’m no expert on WA politics, but I think Norm Malborough was sacked from both the Cabinet and the West Australian ALP.
Yep, with the prospect of a Hung Parliament and Independents/Greens holding the balance of power, NSW will be very exciting next March.
I’m inclined to think however Morris Iemma will win a narrow majority.
“Politics_Obsessed Says:
November 25th, 2006 at 10:27 pm
what happened to that WA ALP guy in the midst of the Burke v Carpenter stuff? Did he resign as memeber and MP?”
Yes, Norm Malborough has resigned from both Cabinet, and MLA for Peel.
A By-Election will be held on Feb 3rd 2007.
Do postal votes usually favour Labor or the Liberals? I am interested to see which way these 6 or so ‘doubtful’ seats will go.
marcus: Liberals
North Vic: 2 ALP 2 Lib 1 Nat
“DLP Resurrected after 30 Year Hiatus”
Should be a news article title in the paper.
In my experience, these freak wins for micro-parties tend to come unstuck in late counting.
Hey Bill – is the Vic Upper House preference system as arcane and opaque as the NSW one?
sorry evan the wa question was to anyone in general – because that would give the alp 30 out of 57 seats if Norm forced a by or stood as indep… perhaps that would give the libs/nats a shot at2009….
also anyone catch what happened to claire martin in nt? didnt think it was possible of a leadership challenge in alp state/territory domains – esp. after the landslide martin gave the alp in 2005
and i agree evan – a “hung” parliament could be interesting to watch… depends if debnam shoots himself in the foot again… mind you nsw sucks… labor goes through ministers like ivan milat goes through kills and the liberals live like its survivor macquarie street… there seriously needs to be a third party in the state…… pity the dems wont come back
lol not to be taken seriously – you’ve got a point
And to add for Evan’s comments, it was Brian Burke who resigned from the ALP, after the Premier made the threat that if Burke wasn’t expelled, he’d resign as Premier. Malborough as far as I’m aware is still a member. Carpenter demanded, and sought his resignation from Cabinet, Norm then decided to resign from Parliament on his own violition.
Mind you, Deputy Liberal Leader Troy Buswell’s links with former Lib NoelCritchon-Brown and the secret car park meeting where they discussed Troy’s evidence before the CCC makes the libs whinging sound rather hypocritical.
“DLP Resurrected after 30 Year Hiatusâ€
Should be a news article title in the paper.
I want a Royal Commish into who it was that failed to drive the stake in all the way.
Talk about the undead.
wow abc just updated . kilsyth is now libs ahead
I agree – can’t the DLP just die… perhaps this is what we will get from the democrats in 30 years?
West Metro 4 ALP 1 Lib
wow abc just updated . kilsyth is now libs ahead
Don’t wet yerself PO. THe VEC gives it to the ALP in, as our American cousins would say, a squeaker.
Face up to it son, Ted is dead. Long live the Brassica.
cheers frank – i have a terrible memory atm
i read all the politics and keep up-to-date then just forget… oh well- I’ll be interesting to your above blogging will – if labor does get in with 21 members in the upperhouse… to control both houses in two consecutive elections… now that would be history…. and to another point – will bracks stay for the end of the term and go another or be replaced? what does everyone think? since mumble pointed out the interesting terms v years prospect that will most likely see beattie replaced by bligh
NTBTS – ha
I was just letting everyone know that’s all
The DLP vote was never as low as the current Dems vote.
A lot of you seem to be getting very concered about the possible DLP winin North Metro. but I wouldn’t be. They only lead the Greens by 3% with only 50% counted and the bigger inter-city booths that lean green still to come in. In the other regions the results currently are:
North Vic. 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 NAT – 52% counted
West Vic. 2 LIB, 3 ALP but the DLP are close too Labor’s third seat here – 60% counted
East Vic. 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 NAT 43% counted
South East Met 3 ALP, 2 LIB – 46% counted
South Met. 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRE – 38% counted, Libs are close to tge greens seat
East Metro 3 ALP, 2 LIB – 55% counted, Greens close to ALP third
West Metro 4 ALP, 1 LIB – 59% counted. Only reason for this result in DLP prefencenes that went to Barlow (ALP) before going to the Catholic right and the libs even thought the rest of the ALP was behind them.
So the Upper house looks like 21 ALP, 15 LIB, 2 NAT, 1 GRE, 1 DLP but this WILL change by the end of the night.
Ted Baillieu doing the press conference in Speedos – did that win the Libs any more of the female and/or gay vote? Might be an interesting subject for post election analysis?
On Melbourne: let’s do the maths. At the last election, only 83.94% of electors in Melbourne cast a formal vote (more than 12% didn’t vote, the rest were informal). According to the VEC, in this election 63.29% of the roll has so far been counted in Melbourne. If, for the sake of illustration, turnout is exactly the same this time as in 2002, there are 8021 formal votes left to count with the Greens trailing by 850 on two-party. If my maths is right, the Greens need to win 55.3% of what’s left to pull ahead by one vote (reduce that percentage if the informal vote is lower this time, but I can’t be bothered working it out). Perhaps possible if the outstanding booths, absentees etc are all heavily Green and Labor’s good booths have all been counted. But no one seems to know what’s left out there. Even so, Antony’s computer still has Melbourne as ALP ahead and now predicts a final Labor two-party vote of 51%.
And after being screwy for most of the night, the ABC’s results section is back to normal now.
From Kilsyth primaries it looks to me that the Libs should be ahead (43.3 + 6.7 from FF), unless this is one of the seats in which FF are not preferencing the Libs.
The DLP vote was never as low as the current Dems vote.
Are you sure Speaks? I never realised that the ppn of nuns. OPs, CBs and Marist brothers in our populations was so high. A fifth column without doubt.
I retract the seat I’d given the Greens in West Vic. Now ALP.
I basically concur with AKP except SM where I will check again.
Morwell continues to get my eye
The VEC (and ABC) computer continues to split between LIB/ALP
The National is miles ahead of the Liberal & the anti-ALP IND Proctor
Even with Proctors prefs to the LIB I can’t see them passing the NAT under any equation
Add to that a probably understated 65% pref flow on from the Lib/Ind/FF to the NAT, this should be a clear NAT lead by 1500-2000 votes imho
For someone with complete ignorance about the new structure of the Victorian Upper House – how many seats does one party need for an overall majority?
Evan, the answer is 21 (there being 40 seats in the new-look chamber, down from 44). Labor might just get there.
Bort
I think the VEC selects in advance the two most likely remaining candidates for the 2CP. Their numbers may be jumbled by the good performance of the Nats. Certainly it’s hard to see the ALP winning Morwell with that primary vote, unless they get prefs from FF or the independent Labor guy.
Just in from the suburbs, and some upper house observations on a sample of one booth in Eastern Metro:
- only about 4% of the total vote was below the line. About half of this came in the form of people voting 1-2-3-4-5 for the ticket of either ALP or Liberal – presumably these will exhaust. Greens had more below the line (as usual), but still only about 18% of their total vote.
- Very little evidence of people going below the line to go around a party ticket.
As far as pre-polls are concerned, the demographics of pre-poll and postal voters are different at this time of year to what they are in most elections because it’s university holidays (and Schoolies), but not school holidays. In 2002 the Greens did very well (and Labor better than usual) on these, and I’d expect the same in 2006.
From Kilsyth primaries it looks to me that the Libs should be ahead (43.3 + 6.7 from FF), unless this is one of the seats in which FF are not preferencing the Libs.
The Family Fist vote is higher than usual here because of the donkey vote. Assuming a third will vote straight down the ticket and Grns prefs are tight towards the ALP it’s safe for the Bearded Dymphna – which is how the the TPP VEC tally calls it.
Even if the ALP does lose Kilsyth it will be a bitter Monday morning for the Tories. Remember when Mexico was the jool in their crown.
Or to it put another way as the Pom soccer crowds might chant to the tune of Amazing Grace “Twenty Nil, Twenty Nil, Twenty Nil….” and so on ad nauseum referring of course to the pathetic Tory record in state elections (which matter not one whit anywho… )
Bort, if I understand your point correctly (and if I don’t, my own lack of clarity is to blame rather than yours): there is no doubt that the Nationals will finish ahead of the Liberals in Morwell, and win the seat if Labor does not. The thing is, electoral commissions have to decide before the count which two parties they are going to follow in the provisional preference count, and the VEC assumed Morwell would be a Labor versus Liberal contest. But they were wrong, as they usually are in one or two seats each election.
Well, they do have a Queensland Senator in Barnaby, Darryl, so perhaps they’re on the comeback trail…
In other words, what Marcus said.
William, thank you for the answer!
If the ALP has majorities in both houses again – another stellar triumph for Bracks!
According to the VEC site: Labor has 100 vote leads in Kilsyth, Mt Waverley and Ferntree Gully(2 PP that is).
Forrest Hills – looking safer for Kirstie Marshall.
South Metro: Green + Dem + PP is 1.1 quotas, so they look kinda safe with 56% counted.
DLP with a seat?
Well, they do have a Queensland Senator in Barnaby
Actually I thought he was Albert Field come back to haunt us all.
West Metro: I get
ALP 3.54, Lib 1.48, FF+DLP 0.29, Dem+Grn+PP 0.69
After Libs get the votes from FF, Greens get the votes from the 4th Labor to take the last seat. Am I missing something?
If the ALP has majorities in both houses again – another stellar triumph for Bracks!
It certainly is. How come there aren’t more ALP tragics rubbing the Tory noses in it – or are they all over at Tim Blairs?
Ah, I see PP have the Greens last in West Metro!
How come there aren’t more ALP tragics rubbing the Tory noses in it..?
Stevie told them all to go to bed coz they gotta start work tomorrow.
At 64% of the upper-house counted looking at the party state-eise percentages teh Liberal party did badly
ALP 42.6% Close to the newspoll.
Liberal 33.91 two to three percent below the polls.
Greens 10.10 two percent below Morgan and about right for Newspoll.
Nationals 4.95% one percent above the newspoll figurs or 4% showing that the 2002 LIB/NP slit used by Antony Green was way out.
FAMILY FIRST 3.87% above my estimate of 3% but still not enough t win a position.
DLP 1.89 % down 0.5% from teh senate vote
DEMOCRATS were the biggest loser down form 2.5% in the senate to 0.75%
PEOPLE POWER about what we expected just below 1%. I gave them the benefit of doubt in most of my analysis and they did not come up the middle as much as Mayne claims
The rest did not come close to the 0.5% .
The biggest surprise which we need to keep an eye on is Northern Metro where the DLP has a real chance.. Much will depend on below the line and Postals Votes – Statistical Information on Postal votes. MR TULLY and the VBEc had promised to provide information on teh nukmber of ballot papers issued but when we asked where was it MR TULLY refused to make it available WHY? It should have been available on teh VEC web site. We were orginally told it would be available but it was not. As it stands we do not know how many postal votes have been issued and there could be a surprised bundel of 50 votes that has been unaccounted for. Information is missing. We kept asking the VEC but they were not able or willing to provide this information. (This information was made available in past elections but not this time.)
Prehaps much of the VEC problems lie with our concern that the VEC had pre-counted the electronic votes before the close of the poll (See email from Glenda Frazer) This raises some concerns about legality and when questioned Mr Tully ducked for cover and became abusive as he sort to deny that the votes had been counted., More questions then answers.
Anyway apart form the VEC poor management and poor web site the result has overall been good. Congratulations Steve Brack and the ALP team. Keep on providing good governance. With John Howard in absolute control we need a Labor Government to provide the required checks and balances.
One of the best calls on the night was from Bill Shorten who early in the night called the outcome.
DLP with a seat?
Don’t forget Nino Randazzo in the Italian Senate.
Thats about right around 95% of all votes are above the line. the same in most elections of late. 85% to 95% Still do not know the exact figure of Postals not sure if the VEC knows either – They were consistently finding excuses not to make the information available. Strange really.. Hopefully there will be a review as there is a lot that can and should be fixed.
East Metro is very close, but not quite there for the Greens on the latest figures, and South Metro might have them ahead now for the last spot too. It seems that as time goes on the results get closer to the ABC predictions which previously seemed a bit strange compared with the VEC figures – do they factor in booth data perhaps? Definitely Greens are improving, though the last time I looked Western Vic wasn’t likely.
With about 250,000 votes counted in each Region, the cut-up shows that the Greens can be confident only about SMET and surprisingly EVIC. NMET, where they have about 0.89 of a quota, they loose out to the DLP, who have done a Glen Druery and got preferences from all over the shop, on top of 0.3 of a quota. EVIC must be regarded as dodgy, a lot will depend on the Nats vote.
Yes thanks for the clarification – to my untrained eye I can not see Morwell as being anything but a National gain, with a relatively sound margin of victory – would be nice if the powers to be did something about it
As for Kilsyth – the ABC projection is using the exact same numbers as the VEC numbers which has the ALP in front by 150 and has Libs ahead by 0.5 prediction winning on postals
Can see the Libs picking up Kilsyth, Mount Waverley & Gembrook on the postals. Forest Hill I think they’ll fall a bit short 200 or so votes and that will become the ALP’s most marginal held seat
So would mean
Lib gains (8)
Evelyn
Hastings
Gembrook
Kilsyth
FTG
Mount Waverley
Bayswater
Narracan
Nat gains (2)
Morwell
Mildura
ALP 53
LIB/NAT 34 (LIB 25 – NAT 9)
IND 1
ALP majority of 18 and 9 seat pickup in 2010 for a hung parliament
Which would’ve been at the higher end of most predictions and not a bad lib/Nat outcome considering the fact that the Liberals primary vote did not move
My estimates are below:
ALP 20
LIB 16
NAT 3
DLP 1
ie DLP balance of Power.
However I think the Greens may take a seat off the Libs in South Metro.
ALP majority of 18 and 9 seat pickup in 2010 for a hung parliament
Smoker.
South Metro: Green + Dem + PP = 1.13 quotas, 64% counted. Looks safe.
I notice PP give pref to the Dems, then the first 2 Labor, then the Greens.
UPATE AT 61.5% of the vote counted (ABTL) The Greens have increased there vote falling above the line in what was earlier looking at being a close race between the DLP and the Greens. IO now call the Seat for the Greens but it will very much depend on preferences and not the as first expected primary based quota.
A shame but the brief shining moment of contemplating DLP victory was amusing enough.
IO now call the Seat for the Greens but it will very much depend on preferences and not the as first expected primary based quota.
Well that’s a relief. Judging by the increasing no of typos in your posts you should go to bed now after drinking a least 500ml water. That will avoid you becoming dehydrated overnight and ease the hangover.
I realise that Mex Upper House elections used to be foregione conclusions and clearly you have never suffered through the horrible waiting for the result in the Upper House as we have in NSW. It’s not worth prognosticating on election night. By pref distro 13 we should have a fair idea.
The ‘brief shining moment’ was almost enough to make me grab the TARDIS, go back to 1978 and reverse my vote to disband the DLP at that year’s State Conference. Imagine if there had been no Split in 1955 how often Victoria would have had the benefit of a Labor Government. The key lesson for me is the State Government has to do a good job with basic services – and no one can say the Bracks team has not done that – to stay in office. Steve’s victory speech was the most animated I have seen him in the campaign. While the Liberals have gained some seats, they will really have to stand for something to have a chance in 2010. The fact-free claims of the ‘do-nothing’ Bracks Government won’t cut it after 11 years of its doing good things.
Imagine if there had been no Split in 1955 how often Victoria would have had the benefit of a Labor Government.
Is that some sort of mea culpa?
Yes the history of our commonwealth (small “c” used deliberately) would have been quite different if you lot had not so selfishly gone your own way and stayed to fight the good fight with, gasp the Prods. Athiests and your much derided co-religionists who stayed true.
William I have just sent you a graph of the distribution at 61.5% you are welcomed to publish it if your like. I will send more information as and when I process it.
Attached is the distribution graph of the above the line vote for Northern Metropolitan Region
Recent votes received have pushed the Green vote up and with te help of People Power and the Australian Democrats the Greens who were sitting below quota were pushed over the line. The DLP was in second place and less then 1 percentage point would have picked up the Liberal Vote surplus to be a serious competitor coming from behind. Whilst it is possible for a reversal of fortune as postals and additional votes are included into the count the odds are with the Greens to win the seat. It will go down to preferences. Problem is we do not know how many postal votes have been issued and how many returned and how many outstanding. The VEC would not provide this information when it was requested. WHY we have no idea. This information is normally made available.
Anthony van der Craats
It was close and a good effect form the DLP to have come from behind like that. Who knows if the Liberal vote increases the outcome could change. Problem is we do not know how many postal votes were issued. This data is not available. Mr Tully refused to make the information available when we questioned that information that indicated he had authorised a pre-counting of the electronic voting prior to the close of the poll. We are seeking legal advice as to his entitlement to access the voting data and count the vote without any scrutineers being present. We were told this information would be available. I personally think he should resign.
Which seat do you want next…
No mea culpa intended. Doctor Evatt should never have launched his attack on the Victorian Branch of the ALP. If you can get hold of Robert Murray’s The Split, it will give you all the details. I also argue that the strength of Labor in Victoria today comes partly from the fact that it was the home of the DLP. While the DLP has been seen by some poltical scientists as allowing ALP voters to move to the Liberals in two steps, I think it actually parked some of them in the Labor camp and once the DLP disbanded, they went back to the ALP.
What happened with my predictions
Greens to win
Melbourne: This won’t be happening, sure 23% for the Greens is a good result, but they really have been thumped
Liberals to gain 3/8
Hastings Liberals appear home with 51.5% should have won it by more
Bayswater Liberals ahead 52.9%
Mt Waverly Liberals ahead 50.1% I think the ALP may fall over the line
South Barwon ALP 53.2%, very nice win for the ALP, the Greens only polled 8%, that seems low, good win for the ALP
Kilsyth ALP ahead 50.2 should fall over the line
Gembrook ALP lead 50.8, the ALP may hold, this seat shows why its a poor result for the Liberals, the Greens polled 10%
Ripon ALP hold 54.8% a very good win, Joe Helper can’t be far from the frontbench,
the Liberal primary vote of 33% is very poor, after 7 years out of Government, they should have polled closer to mid 40s
Everlyn Liberals won 52.8%, good win
Seats to close to call
Burwood ALP Hold, this is either a very good result for the ALP, or a very bad result for the Liberals
Mitcham A big swing against Tony Robinson, the East link issue wasn’t as strong here as some think, Mitchem is a very diverse seat, so the result here is a clearer reflexion on how the state is travelling, good win for the ALP, must watch in 2010
Forrest Hill I tip the ALP to just hold, this is the sort of seat that will stay with the Government, while Brack is ALP leader
Frankston A very good win for the ALP, Harkness is seen as a good local MP, in what is a very tough seat for the ALP
Prahran The Greens should be very happy with nearly 20%, the ALP will be happy to hold a seat which isn’t labor by nature, be interesting to look more closely at individual booths
Seymour Great result for the ALP with 6% margin
Eltham Not a surprise, the only reason I had it as too close, was I wasn’t sure how the Greens would go, overall a very good win
Narracan Liberal gain, I’m not surprised with this result
Morwell the Nats have really given the ALP a scare, but the ALP appear to have just fallen over the line
Bellarine a very strong result for the ALP
Bentleigh a really good result for the ALP
Mordallioc another shocker for the Liberals
Richmond ALP beat the Greens, not surprised, I have for a long time though the Greens were overrated
Mornington A very solid win for the Liberals
Box Hill The Liberals appear to hold it, ALP would be disappointed.
Bass Not surprised with Liberal win
South Coast Not surprised with Liberal win
All up a very good win for the ALP holding their ground in the regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong
Inner City The ALP will be very happy, sure the Greens have polled well, but the ALP have clearly won several very hard fought campaigns,
interesting to see if the rift between the ALP and the Greens can be repaired or it turns into open conflict between the two,
while the Liberals wanted Prahran, they’ll be happy with the swing, also the results in Hawthorn and Kew were very strong.
Eastern Suburbs A good result for the Liberal party, for they won Bayswater and Everlyn, but they underachieved, so in all a disappointing result,
but you could argue they are well placed for 2010, but so are the ALP, both the Greens and Family First will be happy with there results out East.
Southern Suburbs A great result for the ALP, in holding Bentleigh, Mordiallioc and Frankston with good margins, these seats are critical in choosing whom Governs.
I leave the Upperhouse up to others.
Southern Metropolitan.
At just under 60% of the enrolled counted the results are. ALP 2 Lib 2 Grn 1
Again late polling results have seen the Greens elected. Thats two Greens to data. Next seat Western Metro
Same story as in the Northern Metro The Democracts and People Power push the over the line.. Missing of course is the number of Postal votes that have been issued. information that Mr Tully has refused to provide although in previous elections this information was readily available., Should have been on the VEC ’s web site.
Counting seems to have stopped.
A big batch of votes boosted the Greens in NMET to 0.981 of a quota, and they take the 5th seat.
Eastern Victoria is still a winner for them (suprisingly)
(I think I said this an hour ago, does Bludger have cracks in the fkooboard?)
Western Metro the Greens pick up a third seat at 65% of the enrolled vote counted. Same story as before ALP 3 Lib 1 Grn 1
East Victoria electing a Green while I didn’t pick, it isn’t a surprise for the Greens poll well in areas like Gembrook and the Mornington Peninsula
Eatsern Metro 62% enroled counted. Greens miss out a fourth seat. ALP 2 Lib 3.
Eastern is a very close race and will be decided on postals and below the line votes. A slim chance of the Greens coming in front
At 62% less then 0.5% difference. If only we know the number of postal votes that have been issued. Could there be hat mysterious bundle of 50 ballot papers. We have no idea as the number of ballot papers issued was not provided by the Electoral Office who it looks like had counted the e-votes ahead of time… Hmmmm
South Eastern ALP 3 Lib 2 at 63% of the enroled vote counted
No contest a clear decided will not need a preferences count. The VBEC can save some money, judging by Mr Tully’s approach I think they will need it because if the information in relation to the election is not provided I will take them back to VCAT and look forward tio the evidnec he and his staff will give under oath.
I’m confident the Nats are safely home in Morwell. The VEC shows the ALP/Lib 2PP with an ALP lead of 400 votes. However there are 3300 Lib votes & 7300 Nats, which means 7300 conservative preferences have have been distributed, instead of the 3300 that will actually have to be…thats 4000 less. If the leakage is only 10%, that is 400 votes less that will leak, giving the Nats a 400 vote lead over the ALP instead of the VEC’s 400 vote ALP lead over the Lib.
This dosent even take into account the fact that Nat prefs are more likely to leak than the more disciplined Lib Prefs. Taking this into account, the Nat lead could be as high as 1000.
This result must be the shocker of the night. The ALP will need to re-consider its response to the greenhouse issue or risk alienating a significant section of its base. Bracks said in his (well delivered) victory speech that the result sends a message to Canberra on global warming, it may turn out to be the opposite of the one he was intending.
Eastern Victoria is not in the Greens favor just yet. Depends on the missing postal data that Tully would not provide. The only reason they come close is the lower then expected polling from the Liberal party who as I have said just 0.5% ahead of teh greens for the last spot.
I am tied shall I push on for the three rural seats … Ok I will do western vic next. Mind you I have not checked to see if the result would change if tyhey had a more accurate formula in the counting of the surplus. Hmm with so many seats close it could be an issue… Thinking a load here guys. Still thinking about the wittness statement in court… Hmm I should start the ball rolling before christmas…
Peter K – hopefully not the person I’m thinking of – makes a good point. Losing the LaTrobe Valley is a big blow for Labor. It cannot afford to become the Greens Lite.
Let’s talk about People Power.
Western Victoria 67.5% of the vote counted ALP 3 Lib 2. Loks like the ALP will have 2,3,3,3,2,3,2,2 20 seats. A split house.
As earlier predicted it is a close race with the DLP coming second in the finish line. But a 1.5% margin give the ALP that extra lead that will be hard to peg back on postals and absentee. But in the absence of this information and the refusal of Mr Tully to provide this information it is hard to tell. VCAT here we come..
I know VCAT are good at Planning and other legal issues lol:) but do they handle Electial issues well.
Northern Victoria 67% of the enrolled voters counted. As expected ALP 2 Lib 2 i NP.
Last Eastern Victoria 68% enrolled counted. No surprise ALP 2 Lib 2 NO 1 will go to preferences but clear cut solid win for the NP..
Having a look at the final board for the lower house result is becoming clearer. ALP has 53 definately. Libs 21 (+4), Nats 9 (+2), Ind 1 (-1), 4 Doubtful.
Doubtful:
Ferntree Gully (Lib ahead by 75)
Kilsyth (ALP ahead by 152)
Gembrook (ALP ahead by 251)
Mount Waverley (Lib ahead by 104)
Lib Gains: Narracan, Hastings, Evelyn, Bayswater.
Nat Gains: Mildura & Morwell.
The worst result for the conservatives would be 57-30-1, compared to the previous 62-24-2. The best possible is 53-34-1.
I haven’t seen the statewide 2PP figures but I think the overall swing must be more like 3-4% than the 2% I’ve been hearing.
Thanks William for this excellent site.
I am convinced that people are wrong in assuming that the DLP win Northern Metro. According to the VEC, the Greens have 16.31% of the vote. While the DLP harvest preferences from Independents, Family First, the ALP surplus and People Power, this only takes them to 10%. Meanwhile the Democrats provide 1.09% to the Greens after filtering them through PP.
Kilsyth is absolutely line ball. Pre-polls, postals and absentees last time provide a net gain of 182 for the Liberals, which negates the current 152 Labor margin. However, incumbency provides a considerable advantage in postals especially, so my guess is that Labor will win by something less than 100 votes.
Gembrook is a magnificient result for Tammy Lobato. Given that her margin of 1.6% last time was almost entirely attributable to the Robert Dean fiasco and the Liberals’ being forced to pre-select a new candidate at the last minute. the probability that she’ll hang on is an outstanding achievement.
Morwell looks very shaky on Peter K’s plausible analysis.
My big error was in over-estimating the anti-Labor sentiment in Geelong and Ballarat. I thought there would be serious vote slippage there and that as a consequence Labor had no hope of three Upper House seats in Western Vic.
Results
Region, ALP, LIB, NP, GRN, DLP
Eastern Metropolitan, 2, 2, 0, 1, 0
Eastern Victoria, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0
Northern Metropolitan, 3, 1, 0, 1, 0
Northern Victoria, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0
South Eastern Metropolitan, 3, 2, 0, 0, 0
Southern Metropolitan, 2, 2, 0, 1, 0,
Western Metropolitan, 3, 1, 0, 1, 0
Western Victoria, 3, 2, 0, 0, 0,
Sum, 20, 14, 2, 4, 0
People Power wasted how much in lost deposits???
They Gambled and lost. Big time. Better stick to tatts lotto…
All they were was a feeder for the Greens… at $350 per person they blew the lot… Might as well placed your bets on black on the casino. better odds
Re VCAT Yes they handle FOI.,
Yes PP were led into oblivion by Stephen Mayne. A shame, so good people involved.
some* good people involved
Melb City, The Greens have NO HOPE of landing a seat in West Metro. Even If they manage to be one of the two last remaining parties in the contest, with the Liberal vote going towards Labor, Labor ends up with a easy win to the tune of 3-4%.
My version of the cut-up for LC is:
Region ALP LIB NP GRN DLP Total
Eastern Metropolitan 3 2 0 0 0 5
Eastern Victoria 2 2 1 0 0 5
Northern Metropolitan 3 1 0 1 0 5
Northern Victoria 2 2 1 0 0 5
South Eastern Metropolitan 3 2 0 0 0 5
Southern Metropolitan 2 2 0 1 0 5
Western Metropolitan 4 1 0 0 0 5
Western Victoria 3 2 0 0 0 5
Sum 22 14 2 2 0 40
THese were all run through a cut-up program that uses the Ticket votes. The BTLs can alter this but not much. Postals, etc can alter it a lot more. Eastern Victoria has a very close race between Nats and Greens, but it no longer seems like the Greens can do it. Eastern and Western Met are outside chances for them. Western Met is more likely to finish up 4ALP than 3ALP:1Green in the cut-up for the last seat
Did the bad look of the G20 protests reduce the Green vote on the day? Or was Garrett’s green credentials trump everybody else’s?
One result that appears extraordinary, but wasn’t discussed since it didn’t influence the outcome, is the Citizens Electoral Council’s showing in Broadmeadows.
4.77%, and ahead of Family First.
http://www.tallyroom.vic.gov.au/state2006tallyroomelectorateBroadmeadowsDistrict.html
The nutter conspiracy vote is normally
… under 1%, so the LaRouchites must have something happening up there.
bmwofoz -> the Liberals historically perform better with the postals and pickup around 0.5% extra over the ALP which should tip them over the line in Kilsyth & Gembrook if history is any guide and increase their margins in Mt. Waverley & Ferntree Gully
53-34-1 would have to be the favoured outcome
The big question is: who will have the balance of power in the upper house?
According to Antony Green’s (somewhat drunken by the end of the night) election analysis it will be: ALP 19, L/NP 18, Greens 3, with the Greens holding the balance of power.
I’m not as educated on this as many of you seem to be, but would be interested to gain your thoughts.
William you need to look at what happened in Caulfield 13% swing against Labor. One reason only. And What happened in Narracan? Could this be a computer error? No one I have spoken to has provided any real feedback or clear explanation.
I have updated my posts on my blog on Melbourne Richmond and Prahran.
What’s clear based on all polling and the election result is that Labor picked up 2% (from 40% to 42%) and the Liberal Party went down 2% (from 36% to 34%)in the last week of the campaign. ACNielsen and Newspoll were the most accurate with galaxy poll proving again that its methodology is in need of serious review. The Sunday Herald Sun should seek a refund.
Yes no doubt about it the involvement of ALP spokesperson and environmental activist Peter Garrett help Bronwyns Campaign. Whats al;so interesting is that teh Liberal Party out polled the Greens in Richmond.
Over all a great result for the ALP. A forth term is possible as it is easirt for a respected government to win a forth term then the third, with most victorians having lived under the current government.
The ALP, unlike the Liberal Party, has undergone a transition of renewal with new fresh talent such as the member for Northcote who that will serve labor well into the future.
For the benefit of the confused – like me – can someone just summarize which of the MINOR parties has won seat/s (or are on track to do so).
Libs pulling ahead in Kilsyth now
Kirstie Marshall’s lead in Forest Hill is eroding at a fast rate …. but she should still hold on by a whisker I reckon
Gembrook is the main in doubt seat now, but no new numbers there as yet
jon:
Greens may have one two upper house seats. Both are very close.
DLP threat in north metro receding.
I get the impression that Labor’s dirt tactics had a strong effect on the Green vote. The Greens probably weren’t defensive enough though. Hopefully Peter Batchelor will at least be moved on from his Transport portfolio at least.
Pike’s lead in Melbourne is now almost 1200. Looks like a win.
Some explanations re Narracan and Morwell. Anti-Labor sentiment was based largely on greenhouse and water issues. There is concern in Narracan that Bracks will divert more water from the Thomson Dam to Melbourne.
Labor’s Morwell campaign was in turmoil after former MP Derek Amos and former local councillor Lisa Proctor quit from the Traralgon branch and the party. The sitting member Brendan Jenkins was perceived as having a strong Morwell bias. Proctor stood as an independent and (I think) her preferences went to the Nats.
The Nats ran a high profile young candidate in former Traralgon footballer Russell Northe who lives in Morwell, who has credentials in both major towns.
The VEC computer kept showing this as a two-party contest between Labor and Liberal but it’s obviously between Labor and Nat. The Nats should win easily unless there’s a big leakage of Proctor’s preferences and that’s unlikely.
It all depend on who you see as a minor party
As of the close of polling last night I have the Greens winning four seats in teh upper-house. Each seat is close and will depend on preferences, postals and absentees. The Greens did not do as well as we first thought but they are above the crucial 9.5% thresh-hold. Southern and Northern are their strongest seat. The DLP was on the lead in early results but as the bigger booths cam on line their position diminished with teh Greens creeping over the line on Democrat and People First preferences.
This is the same situition in Southern Metro (Where the Libs are the challenger). Western Metro (Libs and ALP challengers). South Eastern is ALP 3 Lib 2 thanks to Liberal preferences. Eastern Metro is a clsoe clall between the Liberals and Greens. in rural Victoria North and East Victoria are ALP 2 Lib 2 NP 1. In western Victoria it is line ball but with teh late swing to labor in the last week looks like the ALP will win 3 and the Liberals 2. Should the Alp fall back on postals (Again we have no idea how many postal votes were issued as the Chief Commissioner refused to provide this important information. Why I fail to understand but he will be held accountable. Could have something to do with the fact that I have expressed concern about the VEC accessing the results of the electronic voting data before the close of the poll and without any scrutineers present) and absentee and pre-poll votes. e-centre votes do not apear to be segregated in the same way as pre-poll, postals and absentee is – another concern) I number of people have contacted me with concerns about the Cheif Commissoner. At first I dismissed their concerns as I thought the VEC was now beginning to open up and become more transparent. Now I have to admit I am begining to see what was behind their concerns I somehow think he may be in the job for much longer given the extent and number of complaint I am already aware of… In the end it is a decision of the elected parliament as it if they will address the growing number of concerns and complaints. Try talking to Save Our Suburbs..
More on my blog… click on my name.
I’ve looked at the results at the close of voting in the VEC tallyroom and factor in say an average of 0.5% extra to the Liberal-Nationals in postal votes. The Liberala have picked up 6 or 7 seats and the Nationals 1 or 2 in the Lower House.
I have not seen the upper house results to determine what the exact makeup of that house will be.
Come the federal election I am predicting a better than average result for Family First (they could poll 4% nationwide) and a static Green vote.
AKP I am just reporting the results of my database` which process the votes tally according to the ticket votes. At teh close of counting last night that was the result. see the graphs my blog for a better pitcure. William if you want you are welcome to republish the graphs. If and when we can get hold of the details; below the preference data for below-the-line we will keep. But I think Mr Tully is not about ensuring our electronic elections are open and Transparent and subject to independent analysis and scrutiny. We will have to FOI the VEC I think to get this data. An abuse of the system but I am looking forward to having the VEC give evidence in a repeat of my case against the AEC.
We will also be appealing to the parliament to tighten up the laws and proceeds to ensure that the Commissioner makes our elections open and transparent and information readily available on the internet. This is a fundamental principle and an issue of growing concern not just in Australia but also overseas. The commissioners credibility is also on the line. he has already raised concerns as a result of his refusal to provide statistical information on the number of postal votes issued. Postal vote applications closed Thursday and given they are processed of an electronic voters roll there is not reason why the information has been withheld.
I’m 90% confident that the Libs will pickup 8 (Evelyn, Hastings, Gembrook, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully, Mount Waverley, Bayswater, Narracan) and Nat 2 (Morwell, Mildura) at the end of voting
ALP to hold Forest Hill by 200-250
Final
ALP 53 (-9)
Lib 25 (+8)
Nat 9 (+2)
Ind 1 (-1)
Any challenges to the election are first referred to the Melbourne Magistrates court sitting as an electoral tribunal with th right of appeal to VCAT.
VCAT also hears FOI application appeal. I previous took the City of Melbourne and the AEC to VCAT to gain access to detailed preference data and won decisively without the need for the member to reserve his discision. Election statistical and preference data is a public document and available to any member of the pubic and so it should be. If we are to maintain public confidence in our electoral system it must be open and transparent. Even more so when elections are conducted in cyberspace by computers. Tully has already demonstrated he is not about maintaining open and transparent elections. I am very interested in reports about the VEC accessing e-voting data orior to the close of the poll in the absence of scrutineers.
I would contest the assumption that Liberals inevitably do better in postals (which is itself a misnomer – absentees are the biggest element of the “late” count). I’d argue that postals and absentees tend to go with the incumbent, as they have better resources to do a postal campaign, and have at least some recognition away from their home turf.
I would therefore think that Labor is very likely to hold Gembrook. I’m surprised by to-day’s figures for Kilsyth. There have been more than 4,500 votes beyond the booth count, and that’s before absentees arrive, and with some postals still to be received, let alone counted. However, the ground that the Liberals have made up, now makes them the favourite. As Labour is slightly behind in Ferntree Gully and Mount Waverley, they should be regarded as Liberal-leaning doubtfuls.
There is no prospect of the Liberals winning Forest Hill – the margin’s too great.
So my estimate is ALP 54 Lib 24 National 9 Independent 1.
That assumes Liberal wins in Morwell, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully and Mount Waverley (the last three definitely still in play) and a Labor hold in Gembrook.
Peter both Labor and Liberals always fo better with postals then the minor parties. They are the ones that organise the postal votes in most cicumstances. You look back over past elections and you will see. I recall when the Liberal Party use to out do Labor two to one on postals. You can rest assured that the Greens will not go up as postals and abentee votes come in. The same was the case in the 2004 Senate vote. Risstrom was hoping to pick up on postals and absentee but he didn’t. It takes a lot of votes to make up 0.7% anything over 100 votes in the lower house or 600 votes in the upper-house will be virtually impossible to bridge
STOP: Updated analysis shows that it bis possible for the DLP to win the fifth spot in Western Victoria as previously thought. Much of it depends on the below the line results. We understand that the VEC will not be releasing in a timely fashion the below the line preference data. Without this information it is impossible to independently verify or scrutinise the results of the electronic count. further bring the conduct of the election into disrepute. This information is a public document and is obtainable under FOI and should be published. The decision of the Chief Commission to with-hold this information would be an abuse of process and prevents an open and transparent conduct of the election with is fundamental to good governance..
William call me for an update..
Correction our assement was based on 85 to 90% of teh 7000 going to southwick We now think that the split will be more like 5000 (LIB) to 2000 (ALP) Thornley will be elected on democrat votes