Comments on: Victorian election live

By: Melb city

Melb city — Mon, 27 Nov 2006 00:26:01 +0000

Correction our assement was based on 85 to 90% of teh 7000 going to southwick We now think that the split will be more like 5000 (LIB) to 2000 (ALP) Thornley will be elected on democrat votes

By: Melb city

Melb city — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 17:49:30 +0000

STOP: Updated analysis shows that it bis possible for the DLP to win the fifth spot in Western Victoria as previously thought. Much of it depends on the below the line results. We understand that the VEC will not be releasing in a timely fashion the below the line preference data. Without this information it is impossible to independently verify or scrutinise the results of the electronic count. further bring the conduct of the election into disrepute. This information is a public document and is obtainable under FOI and should be published. The decision of the Chief Commission to with-hold this information would be an abuse of process and prevents an open and transparent conduct of the election with is fundamental to good governance..

William call me for an update..

By: Melbcity

Melbcity — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 08:07:48 +0000

Peter both Labor and Liberals always fo better with postals then the minor parties. They are the ones that organise the postal votes in most cicumstances. You look back over past elections and you will see. I recall when the Liberal Party use to out do Labor two to one on postals. You can rest assured that the Greens will not go up as postals and abentee votes come in. The same was the case in the 2004 Senate vote. Risstrom was hoping to pick up on postals and absentee but he didn’t. It takes a lot of votes to make up 0.7% anything over 100 votes in the lower house or 600 votes in the upper-house will be virtually impossible to bridge

By: Peter Fuller

Peter Fuller — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 04:12:32 +0000

I would contest the assumption that Liberals inevitably do better in postals (which is itself a misnomer – absentees are the biggest element of the “late” count). I’d argue that postals and absentees tend to go with the incumbent, as they have better resources to do a postal campaign, and have at least some recognition away from their home turf.
I would therefore think that Labor is very likely to hold Gembrook. I’m surprised by to-day’s figures for Kilsyth. There have been more than 4,500 votes beyond the booth count, and that’s before absentees arrive, and with some postals still to be received, let alone counted. However, the ground that the Liberals have made up, now makes them the favourite. As Labour is slightly behind in Ferntree Gully and Mount Waverley, they should be regarded as Liberal-leaning doubtfuls.
There is no prospect of the Liberals winning Forest Hill – the margin’s too great.
So my estimate is ALP 54 Lib 24 National 9 Independent 1.
That assumes Liberal wins in Morwell, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully and Mount Waverley (the last three definitely still in play) and a Labor hold in Gembrook.

By: Melbcity

Melbcity — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 03:24:18 +0000

Any challenges to the election are first referred to the Melbourne Magistrates court sitting as an electoral tribunal with th right of appeal to VCAT.

VCAT also hears FOI application appeal. I previous took the City of Melbourne and the AEC to VCAT to gain access to detailed preference data and won decisively without the need for the member to reserve his discision. Election statistical and preference data is a public document and available to any member of the pubic and so it should be. If we are to maintain public confidence in our electoral system it must be open and transparent. Even more so when elections are conducted in cyberspace by computers. Tully has already demonstrated he is not about maintaining open and transparent elections. I am very interested in reports about the VEC accessing e-voting data orior to the close of the poll in the absence of scrutineers.

By: Bort

Bort — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 03:08:12 +0000

I’m 90% confident that the Libs will pickup 8 (Evelyn, Hastings, Gembrook, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully, Mount Waverley, Bayswater, Narracan) and Nat 2 (Morwell, Mildura) at the end of voting

ALP to hold Forest Hill by 200-250

Final

ALP 53 (-9)
Lib 25 (+8)
Nat 9 (+2)
Ind 1 (-1)

By: Melbcity

Melbcity — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 03:03:45 +0000

AKP I am just reporting the results of my database` which process the votes tally according to the ticket votes. At teh close of counting last night that was the result. see the graphs my blog for a better pitcure. William if you want you are welcome to republish the graphs. If and when we can get hold of the details; below the preference data for below-the-line we will keep. But I think Mr Tully is not about ensuring our electronic elections are open and Transparent and subject to independent analysis and scrutiny. We will have to FOI the VEC I think to get this data. An abuse of the system but I am looking forward to having the VEC give evidence in a repeat of my case against the AEC.

We will also be appealing to the parliament to tighten up the laws and proceeds to ensure that the Commissioner makes our elections open and transparent and information readily available on the internet. This is a fundamental principle and an issue of growing concern not just in Australia but also overseas. The commissioners credibility is also on the line. he has already raised concerns as a result of his refusal to provide statistical information on the number of postal votes issued. Postal vote applications closed Thursday and given they are processed of an electronic voters roll there is not reason why the information has been withheld.

By: Tristan Jones

Tristan Jones — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 02:56:10 +0000

I’ve looked at the results at the close of voting in the VEC tallyroom and factor in say an average of 0.5% extra to the Liberal-Nationals in postal votes. The Liberala have picked up 6 or 7 seats and the Nationals 1 or 2 in the Lower House.

I have not seen the upper house results to determine what the exact makeup of that house will be.

Come the federal election I am predicting a better than average result for Family First (they could poll 4% nationwide) and a static Green vote.

By: Melbcity

Melbcity — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 02:52:31 +0000

It all depend on who you see as a minor party

As of the close of polling last night I have the Greens winning four seats in teh upper-house. Each seat is close and will depend on preferences, postals and absentees. The Greens did not do as well as we first thought but they are above the crucial 9.5% thresh-hold. Southern and Northern are their strongest seat. The DLP was on the lead in early results but as the bigger booths cam on line their position diminished with teh Greens creeping over the line on Democrat and People First preferences.

This is the same situition in Southern Metro (Where the Libs are the challenger). Western Metro (Libs and ALP challengers). South Eastern is ALP 3 Lib 2 thanks to Liberal preferences. Eastern Metro is a clsoe clall between the Liberals and Greens. in rural Victoria North and East Victoria are ALP 2 Lib 2 NP 1. In western Victoria it is line ball but with teh late swing to labor in the last week looks like the ALP will win 3 and the Liberals 2. Should the Alp fall back on postals (Again we have no idea how many postal votes were issued as the Chief Commissioner refused to provide this important information. Why I fail to understand but he will be held accountable. Could have something to do with the fact that I have expressed concern about the VEC accessing the results of the electronic voting data before the close of the poll and without any scrutineers present) and absentee and pre-poll votes. e-centre votes do not apear to be segregated in the same way as pre-poll, postals and absentee is – another concern) I number of people have contacted me with concerns about the Cheif Commissoner. At first I dismissed their concerns as I thought the VEC was now beginning to open up and become more transparent. Now I have to admit I am begining to see what was behind their concerns I somehow think he may be in the job for much longer given the extent and number of complaint I am already aware of… In the end it is a decision of the elected parliament as it if they will address the growing number of concerns and complaints. Try talking to Save Our Suburbs..

By: Michael

Michael — Sun, 26 Nov 2006 02:49:04 +0000

Some explanations re Narracan and Morwell. Anti-Labor sentiment was based largely on greenhouse and water issues. There is concern in Narracan that Bracks will divert more water from the Thomson Dam to Melbourne.

Labor’s Morwell campaign was in turmoil after former MP Derek Amos and former local councillor Lisa Proctor quit from the Traralgon branch and the party. The sitting member Brendan Jenkins was perceived as having a strong Morwell bias. Proctor stood as an independent and (I think) her preferences went to the Nats.

The Nats ran a high profile young candidate in former Traralgon footballer Russell Northe who lives in Morwell, who has credentials in both major towns.

The VEC computer kept showing this as a two-party contest between Labor and Liberal but it’s obviously between Labor and Nat. The Nats should win easily unless there’s a big leakage of Proctor’s preferences and that’s unlikely.