Comments on: Swings and roundabouts http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/ Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:42:08 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Michael http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5450 Michael Thu, 30 Nov 2006 09:56:28 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5450 bmwofoz, The coalition beating Traralgon has been marginal until the last federal election and this state election. When I was handing out how-to-vote cards for the Nationals in the late 80s we were pleased to pick up 10% and the Libs were around 35%. Russell Northe's election is a great achievement. I'm out of touch now, but I think the Nationals would be disappointed with the results in Benambra, South West Coast and Gippsland East. bmwofoz, The coalition beating Traralgon has been marginal until the last federal election and this state election. When I was handing out how-to-vote cards for the Nationals in the late 80s we were pleased to pick up 10% and the Libs were around 35%.

Russell Northe’s election is a great achievement.

I’m out of touch now, but I think the Nationals would be disappointed with the results in Benambra, South West Coast and Gippsland East.

]]> By: Mick Quinlivan http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5416 Mick Quinlivan Thu, 30 Nov 2006 03:08:58 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5416 RE Morwell the combined alp/green & ind labor(Proctor) was enough to win the seat narrowly in Traralgon there were 12000 voters & the Nats won by 3000 a closer to 50/50 split say 60/40 would change things arround without a single other vote being changed in the electorate RE Morwell
the combined alp/green & ind labor(Proctor) was enough to win the seat narrowly
in Traralgon there were 12000 voters & the Nats won by 3000
a closer to 50/50 split say 60/40 would change things arround without
a single other vote being changed in the electorate

]]> By: bmwofoz http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5317 bmwofoz Tue, 28 Nov 2006 08:13:32 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5317 Michael, I think you'll find the Liberals tend to beat the ALP in Traralgon more times than not. Michael, I think you’ll find the Liberals tend to beat the ALP in Traralgon more times than not.

]]> By: Melb city http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5298 Melb city Tue, 28 Nov 2006 03:43:55 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5298 The VEC has just published limited information on the polling place results for the lower-house. Missing is information on the upper-house and 2CP assessment. The VEC has just published limited information on the polling place results for the lower-house. Missing is information on the upper-house and 2CP assessment.

]]> By: Melb city http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5277 Melb city Mon, 27 Nov 2006 16:15:58 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5277 Western Victoria is showing a less then expected Green vote and a Stronger ALP vote with Family First dropping below 4% a down ward track. Without knowing the polling both break-down and the fact that the VEC is reporting booths still outstanding. (They have in all the lower house data I fail to see why they have not updated the upper-house unless they have a few mysterious undisclosed bundles of votes) preliminary progressive count should have been completed by now. This is the first election in recent times where this information is not known. A seriously flaw and and poor reflection on Victoria's new Chief Commissioner. Western Victoria is showing a less then expected Green vote and a Stronger ALP vote with Family First dropping below 4% a down ward track.

Without knowing the polling both break-down and the fact that the VEC is reporting booths still outstanding. (They have in all the lower house data I fail to see why they have not updated the upper-house unless they have a few mysterious undisclosed bundles of votes) preliminary progressive count should have been completed by now. This is the first election in recent times where this information is not known. A seriously flaw and and poor reflection on Victoria’s new Chief Commissioner.

]]> By: Melb city http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5276 Melb city Mon, 27 Nov 2006 16:11:48 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5276 Peter I agree with your assessment with 7000+ votes outstanding (Its hard to tell because the VEC has not pulished the number of votes it issued before Saturdays poll. - An Auditor and scurtineer's nightmare) It is close. If Southwick crosses the line first then Thornley or teh Grens could be the loser.. Its close and much depends on the order of elimination.. as it stands Thornley is up BUT... Peter I agree with your assessment with 7000+ votes outstanding (Its hard to tell because the VEC has not pulished the number of votes it issued before Saturdays poll. – An Auditor and scurtineer’s nightmare)

It is close. If Southwick crosses the line first then Thornley or teh Grens could be the loser..

Its close and much depends on the order of elimination.. as it stands Thornley is up BUT…

]]> By: Peter Fuller http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5267 Peter Fuller Mon, 27 Nov 2006 12:58:51 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5267 The combinations of circumstances in which Evan Thornley will miss out, are: 1. a. David Southwick's vote continues to improve markedly from current 12.90% to greater than 13.50%; b. If FF (+ DLP prefs) currently 3.15% falls below Democrats (+ People Power) currently 3.02%. Then FF would be eliminated before the Democrats and their prefs would elect Southwick. Alternatively: 2. If Thornley (plus those who have preferenced him - group C Independent, People Power and Greens whose surplus after Sue Pennecuik is elected 4th, becomes Evan's lifeline) - falls away by about 0.55% in the remaining count, then he'll fall short of a quota. Given that only 73% of the count has been posted and the trend during the count, 1a is feasible and 1b highly unlikely; 2 is unlikely. The combinations of circumstances in which Evan Thornley will miss out, are:
1.
a. David Southwick’s vote continues to improve markedly from current 12.90% to greater than 13.50%;
b. If FF (+ DLP prefs) currently 3.15% falls below Democrats (+ People Power) currently 3.02%.
Then FF would be eliminated before the Democrats and their prefs would elect Southwick.
Alternatively:
2.
If Thornley (plus those who have preferenced him – group C Independent, People Power and Greens whose surplus after Sue Pennecuik is elected 4th, becomes Evan’s lifeline) – falls away by about 0.55% in the remaining count, then he’ll fall short of a quota.

Given that only 73% of the count has been posted and the trend during the count, 1a is feasible and 1b highly unlikely; 2 is unlikely.

]]> By: Michael http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5216 Michael Mon, 27 Nov 2006 09:27:11 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5216 Regarding Morwell, I posted a comment previously about the defection of senior ALP figures in Traralgon, including a former Labor MP, to run an independent and direct preferences to the Nationals. I've just looked at booth figures, and the interesting thing is that the Nats out-polled the Liberals at all of them. I doubt that has ever happened before in that electorate. Traralgon, which used to be marginal Labor, has totally deserted the ALP. The combined Nat/Lib vote at some booths was double the ALP. Regarding Morwell, I posted a comment previously about the defection of senior ALP figures in Traralgon, including a former Labor MP, to run an independent and direct preferences to the Nationals.

I’ve just looked at booth figures, and the interesting thing is that the Nats out-polled the Liberals at all of them. I doubt that has ever happened before in that electorate.

Traralgon, which used to be marginal Labor, has totally deserted the ALP. The combined Nat/Lib vote at some booths was double the ALP.

]]> By: David Walsh http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5214 David Walsh Mon, 27 Nov 2006 09:16:55 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5214 <blockquote>With Morwell, Narracan, Mildura and three upper house seats in the bag, the strength of the Nationals’ performance has possibly been the election’s biggest surprise</blockquote> Agreed. Except that Narracan - whilst certainly a surprise result - was won by the Liberals, not the Nationals. And what did Malcolm Mackerras know that the rest of us didn't when he tipped the Nationals to win Morwell?

With Morwell, Narracan, Mildura and three upper house seats in the bag, the strength of the Nationals’ performance has possibly been the election’s biggest surprise

Agreed. Except that Narracan – whilst certainly a surprise result – was won by the Liberals, not the Nationals.

And what did Malcolm Mackerras know that the rest of us didn’t when he tipped the Nationals to win Morwell?

]]> By: Bort http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2006/11/26/swings-and-roundabouts/comment-page-1/#comment-5213 Bort Mon, 27 Nov 2006 08:18:19 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/430#comment-5213 The VEC being majorly slack today - no updates at all on the lower house numbers - surely there must've been some votes counted today? The VEC being majorly slack today – no updates at all on the lower house numbers – surely there must’ve been some votes counted today?

]]>