Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: November 2006

Return to Earth

Today’s ACNielsen poll in The Age tells of a Liberal revival in more believable terms than yesterday’s effort in the Sunday Herald-Sun. The survey of 1018 respondents has Labor leading the Coalition 41 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 12 per cent and Labor leading 54-46 on [...]

Reversal of fortune

Remarkable poll results from McNair Ingenuity Research in today’s Sunday Herald-Sun give the Coalition a commanding primary vote lead of 46 per cent to 39 per cent one week out from the Victorian election. From this it is somehow inferred that Labor still holds a 50.5-49.5 lead on two-party preferred, suggesting an extraordinary 77 per [...]

Going south

The big news from yesterday’s deadline for registration of how-to-vote cards was the Liberals’ change of heart regarding the Greens, whom they now propose to put ahead of Labor in seats including Melbourne (which the Greens came within 1.9 per cent of winning in 2002), Richmond (3.1 per cent), Northcote (7.9 per cent) and Brunswick. [...]

Whistling in the dark

The Victorian election campaign has been surprisingly poorly served for opinion polls; apart from last week’s obligatory Newspoll, there have only been the three electorate-level polls conducted by the Geelong Advertiser for South Barwon, Bellarine and Lara. Roy Morgan has today unveiled a "qualitative survey of 251 Victorian electors", but it gives no figures on [...]

Highlights of week two-and-a-half

The Poll Bludger’s visit to Melbourne is not off to a good start, for reasons you need not concern yourselves with; suffice to say that the weather hasn’t helped. There has been a good deal more heat on the electoral front, mostly generated by the Labor and Liberal parties’ stimulating preference tactics. Matthew Murphy and [...]

Use your collusion

Talk of a Labor-Liberal deal to shaft the Nationals and the Greens on preferences was ridiculed in some circles, and Labor’s upper house tickets did indeed suggest that the Liberals had some other motive in putting the Greens behind Labor. However, Labor’s lower house how-to-vote cards have now been unveiled and they indeed point to [...]

Foiled one more time

The Liberal how-to-vote cards for the lower house are now available for viewing on the party website. As in the upper house, the Greens and other parties of the left are last – except in the vital inner-city seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Northcote and Brunswick, where supporters are advised: "Place number 1 in the box [...]

Foiled again

UPDATE: The Speaker at Upperhouse.info is progressively posting his invaluable upper house election calculcators; first cab off the rank is Northern Metropolitan.
To give some idea of the setback the hapless Victorian Greens have suffered from the Coalition preference tickets, it’s worth taking a look at Antony Green’s assessment of how the 2002 result would have [...]

Upper house latest

From Antony Green in comments comes the shock news that the Liberals have actually come good on their threat to put the Greens behind Labor on their upper house preference tickets in all eight regions. As Antony puts it, "it is a Liberal ticket that would rather see a Labor majority in the Council than [...]

Bryan’s back

Bryan Palmer’s seemingly endless week offline is over at last.