Comments on: Full house? (part three)

By: Chris Curtis

Chris Curtis — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 00:11:41 +0000

Isabella (December 8th, 2006 at 5:33 pm ) posted, â€œWhat will Peter Kavanaugh talk about in his maiden speech? The threat from Communist Vietnam? The Domino Theory? Give us all a break.â€

I replied (December 8th, 2006 at 6:08 pm ), ‘I do not know Peter Kavanagh or what he will talk about if he gets to give a maiden speech, but I can make an informed guess. It won’t be the non-existent threat from communist Vietnam, though he may make a reference to the suffering of the people there. I think he will talk about life itself, about his grandfather, about persistence in a cause you believe in, among other things, but I am content to wait and see.’

Yesterday, Peter Kavanagh gave his maiden speech. He did not talk about the non-existent threat from communist Vietnam, though he did talk about the fight of democracy against communism. He also talked about life, about his grandparents, and about persistence and about much else besides. (Jo Chandler, â€œI see DLP people: Kavanagh raises ghosts in the upper houseâ€, The Age, 14/2/2007). See for report:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/i-see-dlp-people-kavanagh-raises-ghosts-in-the-upper-house/2007/02/13/1171128974013.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

Or go to the Legislative Council Hansard for a more rounded account – the speech itself.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 11:47:07 +0000

StephenL is right that floating quota itself doesn’t delay counts. Where I referred to NUS counts I observed being slow, the slowness was caused by the other two quirks of the system, especially when their effects were combined – the throwing of all a candidates’ votes for a surplus rather than just the last parcel, and the retention of several decimal places of detail (the latter stopped very small parcels from exhausting, which greatly increased the number of parcels prior to ATV).

(I’m personally a fan of throwing just the last parcel. I think it’s fair that those whose support for a candidate is probably softer, as indicated by their preference reaching that candidate later or at lesser value depending upon system, should have more say in the outcome for the remaining candidates. However I may just be saying that because just throwing the last parcel makes it easier for me to rort my vote to maintain its value through the count, beware!)

I’m not that surprised by Geoff Lambert’s case of the decisive #15 preference especially given the large number of candidates and positions and few voters in that example. Many years ago in a Hobart City Council election with roughly 16000 voters, 17 candidates and six or seven positions, some votes at full value were active with (for instance) 9 for one candidate and 10 for another at a point at which one of these two candidates lost the final position to the other by a fraction over 3 votes.

By: Paul Melville Austin

Paul Melville Austin — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 07:35:05 +0000

Who’s off to attach an electrical cord to Evatt’s grave?

By: Scott

Scott — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 07:13:02 +0000

Well, I’m *sure* this will be the last I ever hear about “the Greens representation in parliament being out of proportion with their support base”.

Greens 10.6% of the primary vote, 5% of the seats
Nationals 4.5% of the primary vote, 5% of the seats
DLP 2.0% of the primary vote, 5% of the seats

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 07:07:32 +0000

Quite so, Ray. Props to Mr S – for my part, I was saying that these freak outcomes tend to come unstuck in late counting, which was pretty much based on the precedent of the Fremantle Hospital Support Group’s near miss in the WA election.

By: Ray

Ray — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 07:04:58 +0000

Hat tip the Speaker who tipped DLP as probables in both West VIC and North Met, prior to the election.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 07:01:11 +0000

The third Labor candidate, Nazih Elasmar. So the result there is Labor 2, Liberal 1, Greens 1, DLP 1.

By: tom the grouper

tom the grouper — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 07:00:45 +0000

William who missed out in Northern Metro

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 06:54:49 +0000

NEWS FLASH: DLP wins TWO seats, in Northern Metropolitan as well as Western Victoria. Thornley wins in Southern Metropolitan. Hat tip to Antony Green and Andrew Landeryou.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Tue, 12 Dec 2006 06:41:15 +0000

I’ve done a quick ring around Tom, but no luck. Stay tuned though, you will hear it here first.