The Sydney Morning Herald has just previewed a poll to be published tomorrow which shows Labor leading 57-43 in New South Wales. This hardens my impression that, for all the government’s extensive list of negatives, the Coalition will make very few inroads at the March 24 election. I will now set to work on charts [...]
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Monthly Archives: February 2007
Bennelong follies
Monday, February 26, 2007 – 5:43 am
I appear to be out on a limb here, but the plan for Maxine McKew to run for Labor in Bennelong (apparently confirmed in the Sydney Morning Herald) strikes me as being Kevin Rudd’s first serious misstep. Last week the Prime Minister homed in on what his finely tuned political antennae told him might be [...]
NSW election: highlights of week one
Friday, February 23, 2007 – 5:47 am
The New South Wales election campaign has begun without me, with the press taking Sunday’s Labor campaign launch as its cue to open festivities with pendulums, key seat summaries and – in The Australian’s case – Malcolm Mackerras’s too-bold-for-his-own-good predictions. Mackerras has tipped that Labor will be returned with a one-seat majority following the loss [...]
Idle speculation: late February edition
Monday, February 19, 2007 – 1:48 pm
The previous thread was getting on the long side, so here’s a new one. Conversation starter: a Roy Morgan poll commissioned by Crikey shows the Prime Minister trailing Labor in his seat of Bennelong by 41 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote, and 55-45 on two-party preferred. The sample was 394, [...]
New South Wales election guide
Tuesday, February 6, 2007 – 5:26 am
The Poll Bludger’s New South Wales election guide is now operational – all 30,000 or so words of it. Virtue is of course its own reward, but if you think my labours deserve a little extra you are invited to follow the directions here. Further embellishments, like candidate photos and local issue summaries, will be [...]
Idle speculation: February edition
Tuesday, February 6, 2007 – 5:25 am
The previous federal election thread was getting long and unwieldy, so I’ve closed it and set up shop here. Perhaps you might like to discuss today’s front page splash in The Australian, "Labor in strongest electoral position since 2001", based on a 56-44 Newspoll result.
Peel by-election live
Saturday, February 3, 2007 – 8:26 pm
Sunday 3pm. Some perspective on this remarkable result. The table below shows the primary vote swing to the incumbent and opposition party and the two-party swing to (or, in this case alone, against) the opposition, at each comparable by-election going back as far as I could find. This is limited to instances where the major [...]
Peel thunder: pre-match report
Friday, February 2, 2007 – 4:36 pm
Alan Carpenter’s year-old WA government faces its first electoral test tomorrow with the by-election for Peel, the seat vacated after Corruption and Crime Commission hearings blew the lid off Small Business Minister Norm Marlborough’s remarkable dealings with former Premier Brian Burke. As usual, this site will provide live commentary as the booth results come in [...]
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