Comments on: Peel by-election live

By: Chris Egan

Chris Egan — Thu, 08 Feb 2007 15:29:29 +0000

The Liberal person, isn’t reflective of our community. The candidate did little to convince me to vote for Liberal. He whinged and whined about things, but nothing gave me a policy decision that said – Yep I will fight tooth and nail to oppose the 2nd Desalination Plant, I will deal with the problems besetting the working class regions in the Peel electorate, family break ups, lack of police recources and generally more economic benefit to the poor. This is a labor seat, and we got a conservative Liberal leader.

If he had said, I will fight for stamp duty for first home buyers to be wiped out, that he will put extra police officers and pledge to fight the Carpenter Government to put a Train Station at Karnup and a Police Station for the Southern Suburbs of Rockingham (and in the area of the metropolitan area’s greatest growth).

He did none of this, he stood up and said I will fight passionately to have tough sentences for vandalism.

Sorry Liberal Party, harsher sentences has not proved to be effective in fighting crime across the world, which this ludicrous policy was the reason I put you last on my how to vote card.

Get real Peel Candidates
Get real Peel Policies.

Not about getting harsher penalties and making Peel a conservative paradise, which it is nothing like…despite the growing wealth of the region.

By: Coota Bulldog

Coota Bulldog — Mon, 05 Feb 2007 05:12:48 +0000

House prices in Perth have gone up 136 per cent over the past four years – the 46 per cent of the past year is incredible, but Perth has been climbing high for some time.
Says something about the importance of incumbency, that’s for sure. But if house prices started to fall, or even stop climbing, over the next six months – which the RBA would be hoping – then that may be a problem for the Federal Government in WA.

By: Rod B

Rod B — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 06:27:59 +0000

Tristan
I don’t think the result means a good result for the Federal Govt.
Voters will change if they are disatisfied, the Qld, Vic and S.A. results show this. However to really grab the swinging voters there has to be a suitable alternative. The Libs at state level have not put themselves forward as viable leaders and IR is a bigger issue than many think. IR may not be affecting too many at the moment but many look at Tristar and worry if they will be next. Tristars behaviour is business at its most greedy and most cynical , but all perfectly legal under IR.
Howard has stayed in due to a weak opposition, only the true believers could have voted for Latham and Beazely was so hopelessly outmanauvered by Howard that he and the voters did not know what he and labour stood for.
Rudd offers a stable steady alternative, not a Latham or a Beazely, but also someone who will act on IR.
One last point the IR proposed by Rudd does not mean workers on AWAs will suffer a wage drop, employers have always been able to and have paid above the award wage.

By: Stephen Brad

Stephen Brad — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 05:17:37 +0000

Hi I think the main reason the libs lost is they never got out there to the people like labor did, libs had no adds were we never even seen the lib canadate I think that has a lot why they never won at all .I live in Peel and what was the lib name we were never told not like labor so its not all the bull like (Reflects how satisfied voters especially in mortgage belt feel towards their state and federal governments regard of party.) They always get that old saying out maybe if the libs did there job and not sat on there hands we might of had a real race and not this farce sham libs sham….

By: Tristan Jones

Tristan Jones — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 03:38:09 +0000

The by-election result actually points toward a good federal coalition performance in the forthcoming federal election. A state Labor government bedeviled with scandal, managed to preform as well in a by-election as it did at the previous state election. Reflects how satisfied voters especially in mortgage belt feel towards their state and federal governments regard of party.

By: jasmina

jasmina — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 03:22:48 +0000

Great result for Labor, although I don’t think that the Carpenter Government should be patting itself on the back. The way I see it, the electorate responded to the economic issues, primarily the rising interest rites, and the bizarre property prices. The IR laws are also starting to bite in what is primarily a manufacturing and primary industry electorate, in a mortgage-belt area. While the state ALP will clearly benefit from this result, I think they need to work very hard before the next state election and should not relax just because Peel came their way. The Federal Libs should be very worried indeed.

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 03:06:56 +0000

I should correct my earlier soundbite about the Liberal vote after closer scrutiny of the figures – they have in fact lost more like one in six of their votes. Still …

By: Josh

Josh — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 02:48:35 +0000

It’s always hard to tell if an increase in Green vote in by-elections is a genuine enthusiasm for Greens policies or a symbolic protest vote – a pox on bothl your houses, sort of thing. In Pittwater we saw the opposite, our vote roughly halved by a high-profile Independent, who provided a protest vote and an opportunity to change the seat. A 1-Green 2-Indie would have had the same outcome, but nonetheless there it is.

I’d say there has been a general upswing in Green fortunes of late, despite shrill noises from the Oz about our days being numbered because Rudd Labor was in their view leading the charge in terms of social and environmental policy. They’re doing well but not that well. Now that the fuss has died down, our vote has increased in state polls and plateaued or dropped 1 or 2 points federally depending on which poll you look at/like the most.

Currently there is a general feeling in state politics (particularly here in NSW) that both major parties are terrible, and voters are looking for the alternative. The Greens are capitalising on some of this, though I would hasten to add that we don’t pick up all the protest vote. Hopefully our standing in the polls will increase in the leadup to March 24!

In Peel-specific terms, though, I’m going to read the swing to the Greens as 3/4 genuine 1/4 protest. The independent, ONP and CDP took most of the protest vote, i would say, and i think that a rebound of 1-2% for the Gs sounds about right for the current climate in WA.

By: Marcus

Marcus — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 02:29:07 +0000

Laborites have been reading federal implications into state ALP victories since the Qld Hanson election in 1998. Likewise over-optimistic conservative commentators have read state implications into the federal Libs performance, especially in outer suburban areas. Yet the evidence suggests that there’s very little correlation between one and the other. How else can you explain the fact that the Coalition holds many federal seats comfortably, with corresponding state seats that have double-digit Labor margins?

I think the federal opposition reads far too much into state election results, and vice versa. I think oppositions at both levels have become complacent by anticipating electoral trends that aren’t really there, and unfortunately for federal Labor, this result will probably be no different.

By: jasmine_Anadyr

jasmine_Anadyr — Sun, 04 Feb 2007 02:02:18 +0000

Woooohoooooooooooooooooo

I’m not sure if or how strongly this fantastic result depicts a electoral current that will flow into Federal waters, but the whole wealth boom analysis I think is a bit shaky. Around Australia and in WA talk is more often of post-boom, surviving the slow-down etc etc. Doesn’t matter if this is real or not if people are ‘over’ the boom and don’t feel they’ve got what they deserve out of the boom then they’ll be looking to take it out on someone.

Will be interesting to see how those with access to internal polling shape the Federal Election and very interesting that so far Howard is trying to make it about the States and water and education. The latest global warming wave wouldn’t have pleased him as it highlights how negligent the Government has been with the environment. Surely too that education and water has been an issue for the whole and at least half of Howard’s term respectively would seem to be a weakness for Howards ‘man of vision of Australia without States’.