at the last UK election the tories had a 1% growth in the vote but picked up 30+ seats (by memory, could be more)

the do you think what im thinking angle was very effective.

I reject your version because state Labor is getting worse results now than it was before WorkChoices was introduced. Labor’s results (Rann and Bracks particularly) have been a bit down on previous performances. Beattie had a result similar to Carr in 2003, but the Queensland economy (house prices, jobs) is roaring ahead right now, and there was a small issue named Bruce Flegg. Bracks was returned with a big majority because that is what voters have been doing with state Labor governments seeking their 2nd re-election. He lost an unusually high number of seats and got an unusually low vote – that is what requires some explaining.

Bert-

The way I recall the polls, they varied between a Labor 2PP of 53 and 56.

And what I am saying is not that anything Gallop would do would effect votes in Victoria, but that (essentially) state election results in the last 8 years have had little to do with individual state issues, or with the qualities of leadership on display from either, but with a collective state of mind that has led to essentially duplicated results in state after state after state (and territory, for that matter). It is a question of national mood. To say that Beattie, Carr, Bracks, Rann and Bacon all followed exactly the same electoral scripts, but somehow it was all some coincidence because of specific individual factors in each case is to stretch credulity past breaking point.

Has work choices really made that much difference to the state election results results in the last 12 months?

Victoria: ‘Months out from the election people expected the Bracks government to lose many seats’ – One of us is inhabiting a parallel universe as it was obvious only months out that the liberals under Robert Doyle were going down to a hiding to nothing. The changeover to Ted Baillieu was quick and clean and much credit needs to be given to Robert Doyle for handling it all with great decorum. It was a few months out and frankly, especially at state level, oppositions don’t get much oxygen. The liberals should have done better, but, did pick up a swag of seats, achieved a few decent swings, and most importantly got some big swings in their heartland which had been left dangerously exposed in the 2002 debacle. Where the liberals conspicuously failed was that the swings in Ballarat, Geelong and the Melbourne / regional interface seats (Macedon, Monbulk, Seymour etc) were very low meaning that a win in 2010 is a very big ask. However the new upper house may expose the Bracks government to more scrutiny (it has already started on gambling licenses). The libs and nats also wasted time and money fighting each other – they need a coalition. But was work choices an issue – maybe the Herald Sun endorsement of the Bracks govt was more important. BTW: I am not a Hun reader but why did they endorse Bracks?

Qld: Why did Peter Beattie win so handsomely in six words or less – Bruce Flegg,Bruce Flegg, Bruce Flegg. Viewed from interstate the lib / nat campaign was obviously a disaster, and the libs especially should take the blame. Gary, your average voter isn’t as silly as some would have us believe – the Beattie government had not been travelling well and deserved censure – but joe average voter wants to replace them with something as good or better, not an evident rabble and they want to know what they are getting – the old QLD lib / nat chestnut that the nats have more seats now (and are the official opp. ) but the libs have to win enough seats for them to be the leading party.

But are we making too much of this run of incumbent governments winning elections? The ’80s and ’90s had a much greater turnover of governments at state levels than any previous decade since 1940. Maybe we are just reverting to the long term condition of state governments being in power for long periods (of whichever political stripe) and winning most elections easily (there are plenty of precedents for this statement) – and with 4 year terms there is less opportunity to change government.

How can you compare WA to Tas?
Tas to anywhere?
Qld to anywhere?
Sa to a state that has a Nat party?

You can’t. No one in WA would punish the state ALP because of something Bracks, Beattie or Iemma has done.