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	<title>Comments on: Ups and downs</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>By: William Bowe</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10678</link>
		<dc:creator>William Bowe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2007 10:34:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10678</guid>
		<description>Bill, the quota for election is 4.545%, so they will win one seat for that much, two for 9.09% and three for 13.63% (after preferences).  The following is the percentage vote and seats won at the past three elections, bearing in mind that upper house members serve eight-year staggered terms.

&lt;table&gt;
&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;2003&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;8.6%&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;2&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;
&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;1999&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;3.0%&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;1&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;
&lt;tr&gt;&lt;td&gt;1995&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;3.8%&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;&lt;td&gt;1&lt;/td&gt;&lt;/tr&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill, the quota for election is 4.545%, so they will win one seat for that much, two for 9.09% and three for 13.63% (after preferences).  The following is the percentage vote and seats won at the past three elections, bearing in mind that upper house members serve eight-year staggered terms.</p>
<table>
<tr>
<td>2003</td>
<td></td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td></td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1999</td>
<td></td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td></td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1995</td>
<td></td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td></td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
</table>
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		<title>By: bill weller</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10676</link>
		<dc:creator>bill weller</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2007 10:22:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10676</guid>
		<description>what seats in the NSW election would have a good green vote and what are the Greens upper house chances?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>what seats in the NSW election would have a good green vote and what are the Greens upper house chances?</p>
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		<title>By: Politics_Obsessed</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10533</link>
		<dc:creator>Politics_Obsessed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2007 07:28:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10533</guid>
		<description>bert not saying one nation is a credible third party - but saying something of their achievement actually made the majors listen and actually do something rather than rhetoric - something needs to knock the majors back in line</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>bert not saying one nation is a credible third party &#8211; but saying something of their achievement actually made the majors listen and actually do something rather than rhetoric &#8211; something needs to knock the majors back in line</p>
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		<title>By: David Charles</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10519</link>
		<dc:creator>David Charles</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 22:08:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10519</guid>
		<description>Oakeshott country, I agree people should not act like it is the end of civilisation when the Iemma government is reelected. I like Morrie. He is a decent fellow. I still think he is a chauffeur masquerading as a premier. The architect of Labor&#039;s win is Mark Arbib with help from the other mob who chose a dud leader.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oakeshott country, I agree people should not act like it is the end of civilisation when the Iemma government is reelected. I like Morrie. He is a decent fellow. I still think he is a chauffeur masquerading as a premier. The architect of Labor&#8217;s win is Mark Arbib with help from the other mob who chose a dud leader.</p>
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		<title>By: Bert</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10518</link>
		<dc:creator>Bert</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 21:18:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10518</guid>
		<description>So are you saying that One Nation was a credible 3rd party but the the Greens aren&#039;t?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So are you saying that One Nation was a credible 3rd party but the the Greens aren&#8217;t?</p>
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		<title>By: Politics_Obsessed</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10511</link>
		<dc:creator>Politics_Obsessed</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 12:41:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10511</guid>
		<description>Looks like another election between Twiddle Dee and Twiddle Dum... such a pity democracy has become so polarised between two competing horses in the race... Alp and LNP. If only the mindset was broken to vote a completely different 3rd party in to really shake things up.... One Nation in Qld in 1998 definetly made the majors listen ... but doesn&#039;t look like anything big will happen - so it&#039;s stuck with the devil we know. The only other slightly credible 3rd party, ironically enough, is the democrats. Besides that - not much choice to choose from. Such a pity...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looks like another election between Twiddle Dee and Twiddle Dum&#8230; such a pity democracy has become so polarised between two competing horses in the race&#8230; Alp and LNP. If only the mindset was broken to vote a completely different 3rd party in to really shake things up&#8230;. One Nation in Qld in 1998 definetly made the majors listen &#8230; but doesn&#8217;t look like anything big will happen &#8211; so it&#8217;s stuck with the devil we know. The only other slightly credible 3rd party, ironically enough, is the democrats. Besides that &#8211; not much choice to choose from. Such a pity&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: oakeshott country</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10510</link>
		<dc:creator>oakeshott country</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 12:09:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10510</guid>
		<description>Thank you William. The four years since the last election seem to have gone in a blur. I really felt that Labor had governed fairly well in NSW and the change of leadership was achieved with some expertise (certainly compared to Unsworth). Iemma  seemed to have grown into the job.

I have been racking my brain to think of why Iemma is so hated. Your charting with 13 points brings back some of the last 4 years happenings. Here are my comments on them and I  freely state that I have voted Labor about 70% of my life

Points 1-4 are hardly points against the government. In the case of the whistle-blowing nurses the charges were rejected by ICAC and one of the nurses now looks distinctly like a liberal stooge.
5 Was admittedly a low point but ICAC again cleared the government
6-10 Seem to be either neutral or fairly balanced low points between the government and opposition
11 I may be an old Keynsian but I believe deficit budgets are beneficial during periods of downturn, particularly when the state is virtually debt free
12 Scully  certainly deserved to go but I felt it was handled quickly and efficiently.
13 I don&#039;t know if a Minister&#039;s sexual percadillos can be blamed on the government but once again I felt the reaction was handled well and Debnam handed the government an own goal.

I can also think of the changes to the train timetables, which have now settled down, and the failure of the PPP Cross City tunnel as negative points since 2003 but I know there must be others. 

For my  benefit I would really like blackburnpseph and others to tell me of the  government&#039;s specific failures that have caused such a negative reaction. (I mean, even if you don&#039;t like the government, there is no reason to act as if its the end of civilisation if they get re-elected.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you William. The four years since the last election seem to have gone in a blur. I really felt that Labor had governed fairly well in NSW and the change of leadership was achieved with some expertise (certainly compared to Unsworth). Iemma  seemed to have grown into the job.</p>
<p>I have been racking my brain to think of why Iemma is so hated. Your charting with 13 points brings back some of the last 4 years happenings. Here are my comments on them and I  freely state that I have voted Labor about 70% of my life</p>
<p>Points 1-4 are hardly points against the government. In the case of the whistle-blowing nurses the charges were rejected by ICAC and one of the nurses now looks distinctly like a liberal stooge.<br />
5 Was admittedly a low point but ICAC again cleared the government<br />
6-10 Seem to be either neutral or fairly balanced low points between the government and opposition<br />
11 I may be an old Keynsian but I believe deficit budgets are beneficial during periods of downturn, particularly when the state is virtually debt free<br />
12 Scully  certainly deserved to go but I felt it was handled quickly and efficiently.<br />
13 I don&#8217;t know if a Minister&#8217;s sexual percadillos can be blamed on the government but once again I felt the reaction was handled well and Debnam handed the government an own goal.</p>
<p>I can also think of the changes to the train timetables, which have now settled down, and the failure of the PPP Cross City tunnel as negative points since 2003 but I know there must be others. </p>
<p>For my  benefit I would really like blackburnpseph and others to tell me of the  government&#8217;s specific failures that have caused such a negative reaction. (I mean, even if you don&#8217;t like the government, there is no reason to act as if its the end of civilisation if they get re-elected.)</p>
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		<title>By: Melbcity</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10508</link>
		<dc:creator>Melbcity</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 09:54:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10508</guid>
		<description>What&#039;s interesting in reading the Victorian local Government Election regulations is that clause 110 (4) states &quot;Before calculating the result, the returning officer must reconcile the electronic record of ballotpapers
with the total number of ballot-papers received.

This is somthing that was clearly missing froim the Nopvember 2006 Victorian State Electon

Had the VEC reconciled the electronic record of ballotpapers
with the total number of ballot-papers received the number of significant erros in the conduct of the election count would not have occured. 

The total number of ballot papers recored in the final count has upto 470 ballot papers missing from the previous count.

There is little to wonder as to why the VEC does not want to publish the polling place details of the 2006 Legislative Council  results.

Hopefully these errors in adminsitration will not occur in the NSW count and that copies of preference data-files and polling place results are readily available prior to the declartion of the poll.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What&#8217;s interesting in reading the Victorian local Government Election regulations is that clause 110 (4) states &#8220;Before calculating the result, the returning officer must reconcile the electronic record of ballotpapers<br />
with the total number of ballot-papers received.</p>
<p>This is somthing that was clearly missing froim the Nopvember 2006 Victorian State Electon</p>
<p>Had the VEC reconciled the electronic record of ballotpapers<br />
with the total number of ballot-papers received the number of significant erros in the conduct of the election count would not have occured. </p>
<p>The total number of ballot papers recored in the final count has upto 470 ballot papers missing from the previous count.</p>
<p>There is little to wonder as to why the VEC does not want to publish the polling place details of the 2006 Legislative Council  results.</p>
<p>Hopefully these errors in adminsitration will not occur in the NSW count and that copies of preference data-files and polling place results are readily available prior to the declartion of the poll.</p>
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		<title>By: Melbcity</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10507</link>
		<dc:creator>Melbcity</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 09:16:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10507</guid>
		<description>MOONEY VALLEY, Victoria by-election

Reports coming in from scrutineers and candidates indicates that the Victorian Electoral Commission is once again proposing to use a computerised counting system for the Mooney Valley City Council By-election scheduled to be counted this weekend.

Under dispute is the need to conduct a computerised count for the election of a single member when a manual count would be quicker and require less resources and more important would be more open and transparent.

The use of a computerised count in a single member constituency can not be justified. The time and resources required to undertake a computerised count is much more then it would be if the election was manually counted. Any time saved is only at the expense the public scrutiny by cutting corners reducing the overall quality of the count.

Computerised counting was not used to count the results of the Victorian Legislative Assembly (Lower-house) election in November.

The Victorian Electoral Commissions conduct of the Victorian Legislative Council (Upper-house) election in November 2006 demonstrates that VEC&#039;s computerised counting system has some major problems. Information obtained under FOI indicates that the software used by the Victorian Electoral Commission has not been fully certified and that there is insufficient checks and balances in the system to ensure that the results of the computerised count are accurate and correct.

The Victorian Local Government Act Schedule 3, Part 3 subclause 10 (c) (ii) requires that the VEC undertake a preliminary sort of ballot papers into parcels based on the allocated first preference vote. 

The VEC claim that they are exempt from this provision of the act where the election is conducted by post and a computerised counting system is used. 

The election is expected to take 24 data-entry operators two hours to count., That&#039;s 48 man hours. 

A manual count would take four people approximately 4-5 hours to count a net savings of 28 man hours. So where is the benefit of a computerised count, and at what costs? A computerised count is virtually impossible to effectively scrutinise.

The tally of the 2006 Victorian Legislative Council also required that the Victorian Electoral Commission presort ballot papers into parcels based on the first preference allocation. 

This is an important part of the scrutiny of the ballot. Without this provision scrutineers are limited in their ability to undertake a proper scrutiny of the counting of the election. Ballot paper preferences are keyed in a random fashion and scrutineers are unable to focus on a particular candidates preferences. 

The VEC electronic shell game

There is further concern that the Electoral Commission refuses to provide copies of the recorded preference data file for independent analysis and review, further denying the opportunities and ability to undertake a proper scrutiny of the count.

This is akin to the con-mans game of three shells and a pea where the returning officer declares the results of the game by lifting up one shell showing that the pea is not there but refuses to show what&#039;s underneath the other two shells.

Use of computerised counting of single member constituencies should be prevented until such time as full and comprehensive review of the electronic voting systems has been undertaken,

A Manual count would facilitate an open and transparent scrutiny of the ballot and would be preferable then the proposed computerised count,

The Victorian Electoral Commission is more interested in playing with its latest toy then it is about public accountability and the maintenance of open and transparent electoral system.

Given the experience of recent past events the VEC management of the electronic count can not be trusted.

The fact that the VEC is prepared to misrepresent the facts in respect to the legislative requirements in order to cut corners is further evidence for a major review of the functions and operation of the Victorian Electoral Commission.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MOONEY VALLEY, Victoria by-election</p>
<p>Reports coming in from scrutineers and candidates indicates that the Victorian Electoral Commission is once again proposing to use a computerised counting system for the Mooney Valley City Council By-election scheduled to be counted this weekend.</p>
<p>Under dispute is the need to conduct a computerised count for the election of a single member when a manual count would be quicker and require less resources and more important would be more open and transparent.</p>
<p>The use of a computerised count in a single member constituency can not be justified. The time and resources required to undertake a computerised count is much more then it would be if the election was manually counted. Any time saved is only at the expense the public scrutiny by cutting corners reducing the overall quality of the count.</p>
<p>Computerised counting was not used to count the results of the Victorian Legislative Assembly (Lower-house) election in November.</p>
<p>The Victorian Electoral Commissions conduct of the Victorian Legislative Council (Upper-house) election in November 2006 demonstrates that VEC&#8217;s computerised counting system has some major problems. Information obtained under FOI indicates that the software used by the Victorian Electoral Commission has not been fully certified and that there is insufficient checks and balances in the system to ensure that the results of the computerised count are accurate and correct.</p>
<p>The Victorian Local Government Act Schedule 3, Part 3 subclause 10 (c) (ii) requires that the VEC undertake a preliminary sort of ballot papers into parcels based on the allocated first preference vote. </p>
<p>The VEC claim that they are exempt from this provision of the act where the election is conducted by post and a computerised counting system is used. </p>
<p>The election is expected to take 24 data-entry operators two hours to count., That&#8217;s 48 man hours. </p>
<p>A manual count would take four people approximately 4-5 hours to count a net savings of 28 man hours. So where is the benefit of a computerised count, and at what costs? A computerised count is virtually impossible to effectively scrutinise.</p>
<p>The tally of the 2006 Victorian Legislative Council also required that the Victorian Electoral Commission presort ballot papers into parcels based on the first preference allocation. </p>
<p>This is an important part of the scrutiny of the ballot. Without this provision scrutineers are limited in their ability to undertake a proper scrutiny of the counting of the election. Ballot paper preferences are keyed in a random fashion and scrutineers are unable to focus on a particular candidates preferences. </p>
<p>The VEC electronic shell game</p>
<p>There is further concern that the Electoral Commission refuses to provide copies of the recorded preference data file for independent analysis and review, further denying the opportunities and ability to undertake a proper scrutiny of the count.</p>
<p>This is akin to the con-mans game of three shells and a pea where the returning officer declares the results of the game by lifting up one shell showing that the pea is not there but refuses to show what&#8217;s underneath the other two shells.</p>
<p>Use of computerised counting of single member constituencies should be prevented until such time as full and comprehensive review of the electronic voting systems has been undertaken,</p>
<p>A Manual count would facilitate an open and transparent scrutiny of the ballot and would be preferable then the proposed computerised count,</p>
<p>The Victorian Electoral Commission is more interested in playing with its latest toy then it is about public accountability and the maintenance of open and transparent electoral system.</p>
<p>Given the experience of recent past events the VEC management of the electronic count can not be trusted.</p>
<p>The fact that the VEC is prepared to misrepresent the facts in respect to the legislative requirements in order to cut corners is further evidence for a major review of the functions and operation of the Victorian Electoral Commission.</p>
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		<title>By: blackburnpseph</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/03/01/ups-and-downs/comment-page-1/#comment-10502</link>
		<dc:creator>blackburnpseph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2007 07:20:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/450#comment-10502</guid>
		<description>The voters of NSW are stuck between a rock and a hard place in their choice on March 24 - its a contest between the fool and the tool!! The readers of this website can decide which is which!!

In some ways, it is tragic for Australian democracy that a state government that has so manifestly failed to deliver basic services and has become besmirched in a series of ethical scandals should seem to be comfortably cruising back into office because the opposition is just not a credible alternative and doesn&#039;t even seem to want to win.

Unless, of course, a re elected Iemma government would be so diabolically incompetent (on past record -yep!) that the libs see a reaction against it as shoring up the NSW vote when the federal election comes. Or that they realise that a Debnam government would be as diabolically awful and deliver the Lodge to Ruddy who would have gained a swag of NSW seats.

Call me cynical.....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The voters of NSW are stuck between a rock and a hard place in their choice on March 24 &#8211; its a contest between the fool and the tool!! The readers of this website can decide which is which!!</p>
<p>In some ways, it is tragic for Australian democracy that a state government that has so manifestly failed to deliver basic services and has become besmirched in a series of ethical scandals should seem to be comfortably cruising back into office because the opposition is just not a credible alternative and doesn&#8217;t even seem to want to win.</p>
<p>Unless, of course, a re elected Iemma government would be so diabolically incompetent (on past record -yep!) that the libs see a reaction against it as shoring up the NSW vote when the federal election comes. Or that they realise that a Debnam government would be as diabolically awful and deliver the Lodge to Ruddy who would have gained a swag of NSW seats.</p>
<p>Call me cynical&#8230;..</p>
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