Comments on: A tale of two states

By: Katie.

Katie. — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 10:18:07 +0000

I was brought up with well known politians and even though i respect most of them, I personally refuse to follow my families unofficial creed of “Labor and Catholic” John Aquilina is a pompus snot that would not have a care or clue about what Riverstone (as a town or electorate) needs. Its unfortunate that a man who got his start at local meetings held in the Sam Lane Community centre can become so far detached from the battler of the west. but he never was one I suppose. he has had numerous falls from grace but the people of this community also unfortunately know no better than to believe one of their own could be so different. I find it ammusing that he is still considered to be liked in this electorate, I wonder who these people are and if they have ever spoken to him? (not during election time as i have witnessed the attempt at charm? during these times.) John Aqulina (sorry soozie) is far from a genuinely nice bloke. Personally or politically. On a more general less personal note… Nothing has been completed by Labor in this community, we suffer on horrid roads lined with flowers on telegraph poles that mark the many deaths on them, land had still not been released and as standard the only time they give us the time of day is at election time. The best thing that could happen to this town and this state is a Liberal majority.

By: Geoff Lambert

Geoff Lambert — Wed, 07 Mar 2007 02:05:21 +0000

The Goat Lady Sings

Yesterday, Penelope Wynne, the Goat Lady of Seaforth, nominated for the seat of Manly.

Manly is only going to be important in the scheme of things if the Libs win enough seats to make the Manly result determine the difference between a hung Parliament and a Coalition majority. Since either of these things seems very unlikely, Manly is just a sideshow. But interesting.

The Goat Lady is seen as a spoiler sucking votes away from David Barr (IND) and (possibly) shunting them towards Baird (LIB). Her support is local….. seat-wide, people are guessing a 5% vote max. This MIGHT determine the result, but the crystal ball is very clouded in Manly. There has been polling, but firm figures of what it shows are hard to dig up. In no case do the rumoured polling figures add up to 100%. One rumour has Baird on 46%, which would guarantee him a win; another has him on 34%, which could guarantee a loss. Previous LIB vote has been consistently at about the 42% mark (1991, 1995, 1999, 2003). On the normal, pre-Goat Lady, flow of preferences, the Libs need about 43.5% primaries to get them over the TCP line.

By: edward o

edward o — Tue, 06 Mar 2007 01:54:49 +0000

Further, there won’t be a 10% informal vote in Riverstone at the state election.

By: Soozie

Soozie — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 23:55:43 +0000

I find the speculation about Riverstone interesting. There is very little correlation between Greenway and Riverstone – except that they overlap in area. Yes, John Aquilina is a popular local member and he works his proverbial off. The big differences between Aquilina and the failed federal candidate are that Aquilina is known, liked and not Muslim. And he doesn’t have to fight against the force of Hillsong volunteers (I still reckon they were paid!). Aquilina will win, but with a reduced majority – he is door knocking in the north of the electorate and the scuttlebutt is that he’s being well received. Perhaps itâ€™s all as he’s a genuinely nice bloke. I also think that the scare campaign on interest rates hurt Greenway – that will be different this time around and has no bearing on the State election.

By: Simpleton farm boy from Badgerys Creek

Simpleton farm boy from Badgerys Creek — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 14:35:12 +0000

Here in Mulgoa Beamer is promising a $9 million bridge expansion for Mamre Rd over the M4 and another $14 million Northern Rd/Glenmore Park roundabout debacle fix. Allegedly the money is all in the May budget! This after assiduously asserting to concerned residents that any Glenmore Park fixes would have to be 100% paid for by the Developer! What a turnaround in 3 months. She’s a haphazard local member, totally controlled by the TWU, as is her staffer Greg Davies, former mayor of Penrith City Council. Wayne Forno and Steve Hutchins pull the strings out here. We’ve had so much taxpayer funded “Community News” ALP propaganda delivered here in the past 3 months as probably in the past intervening 12 years. Apparently Di is now cold calling the over-55s directly on the office phone, push-polling a Liberal fear campaign. This is probably the most amount of work Beamer has ever done in the past 12 years as the local member. Just like her boss Morris. . . never done a real day’s work in the private sector. Where do these hacks come from!?

By: Not to be taken seriously

Not to be taken seriously — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 13:55:57 +0000

Riverstone is on the Greenway result at the 2004 Federal election is a cert for the Liberals. It should be a notional Liberal seat and not Labor.

The demographic of the electorate has changed drastically over the last few years with McMansions being built over all the really good arable land that was farmed by market gardeners.

Having said that Aquilina is well known and well liked. Additionally there is a large Maltese descent population in the area and he is no tyro in running tough campaigns havning been campaign manager for the electorally unapplealing Frank Mossfield a couple of times . His posters are all over place the southern end of the electorate and there are very few Lib ones around and even in the northern end around Rouse Hill there are almost no Liberal ones. What posters there are mainly homemade ones made by landowners protesting about not being able to sell the land they inherited from their parents or bought twenty years ago as “sure fire investments” to land developers.

I call it as the Lib “gain” in a squeaker.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 12:57:18 +0000

They’re not intended to contribute to a debate. They’re intended to stop Labor voters straying from the fold for fear they’ll let the Libs sneak in, if not statewide at least in particular seats. It looks very obviously bogus to us intellectual blogreading types, but it appears to work out there in voterland.

By: Stewart

Stewart — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 12:07:10 +0000

I’m not really sure why anyone takes these ‘leaks’ seriously? Apart from attempting to claim the underdog tag, these internal polls are not only unreliable, but also contribute nothing to the debate.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 11:49:10 +0000

The polls in Melbourne predicted 40% primary vote for the Greens, not 40% TPP.

By: Antony Green

Antony Green — Mon, 05 Mar 2007 11:09:45 +0000

Oakshott Country – the provision you refer to is the fixed dissolution date, not the issue of writs. The 4 day issue of writs provision is in the Parliamentary Electorates and Elections Act and should be modified to say the writ is issued the same day as the dissolution. It can be changed by simple amending act. It was a provision which applied if a parliament expired, such as in 1904, 1907 and 1925. It should have been amended when the fixed parliamentary terms was introduced, but government’s have found letting the power of office hang on for a couple extra days came in useful. And for Labor, waiting the couple of extra days makes it tougher for remote postal voters, who in only two weeks, struggle to get their ballot papers and return them in time.