Comments on: Train kept a rollin’

By: Politically Correct

Politically Correct — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 01:11:53 +0000

Hi Evan

I think Prue will win Goulburn. Funny story, I believe half the electorate got to see daughter Kate and the other half were cheesed off at missing out!

Are the people of Epping going to vote Greg Smith?

By: Adam

Adam — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 12:55:54 +0000

I think we’d better take a discussion of Aldred to the federal thread – people from NSW will start to get annoyed.

By: BenC

BenC — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 12:39:29 +0000

Jason,

Price defeated Blackmore in 1999 by 1% 2PP

Price defeated Geoghegan in 2003 by 8.9% 2PP

The subsequent redistribution has taken the ALP notional margin to 9.8%.

I agree with you that this margin wont mean a lot with Blackmore running again and Price retiring, but the interest will be which of Blackmore or Geoghegan comes second, and the preference flows from the 3rd place candidate.

By: David Walsh

David Walsh — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 12:16:51 +0000

Which probably indicates that, despite its slender margin, the Liberal Party will not be making a serious play for Holt.

I notice that Aldred has previously been the member for Henty, Bruce and Deakin. So in the unlikely event that Aldred a) has his preselected ratified and b) wins the seat, he would equal Billy Hughes’s feat of holding four different federal seats. I presume that is the record.

Ben – Andy Landy has gone to town on Aldred. He was disendorsed prior to the 1996 election. So I think it’s likely that this preselection will be overturned.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 11:55:43 +0000

Care to elaborate for those of us not from Melbourne?

By: Adam

Adam — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 10:35:00 +0000

Quite right – very slack of me to miss that.

My spies tell me the Liberals have preselected Ken Aldred for Holt. They must be quite mad.

By: Geoff R

Geoff R — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 05:43:09 +0000

Wasn’t the largest federal margin Beasley for Labor in West Sydney in 1929 with 86.5%?

By: Frank

Frank — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 00:49:29 +0000

Adam,

The Parramatta Liberal party is mainly made up of Anglo-Saxon Aussies (including myself). We pre-selected John Chedid because he was the best candidate, not because of any Lebanese branch stacking.

By: Adam

Adam — Sun, 18 Mar 2007 00:33:39 +0000

I don’t know any records for NSW elections, alas… don’t tempt me into new areas of obsession, please.

In *federal* elections, the largest two-candidate majority in a House of Represenantives contest was 44.0% (that is, 94.0% of the vote after preferences), polled by Albert Thompson (ALP, Port Adelaide) in 1954. He was opposed only by a Communist. The largest two-party majority in a House of Represenantives contest was 35.8%, polled by Josiah Thomas (ALP, Barrier NSW) in 1910. The largest two-party majority for a non-ALP candidate was 33.4%, polled by Henry Turner (Lib, Bradfield) in 1966.

By: oakeshott country

oakeshott country — Sat, 17 Mar 2007 23:31:16 +0000

Hi David,
I think Iemma was the only one who had a chance of getting Labor across the line. He had impeccable right wing credentials, had been quiet in the ministry and had no major black marks. The rumour is that the other likely contenders (Knowles and Scully) withdrew when polling showed they were unelectable. The claims of tired, corrupt and incompetent would have been indefensible with either of them.
When he was first elected I thought he was Unsworth without the pizzaz. However, I think he has grown into the job and is the type of premier to win a fourth election. He does humble (he has a lot to be humble about) and “I am listening” very well. If he is reelected it will be interesting to see how he developes as the memory of Carr fades.

My fearless predictions for Port Macquarie: Oakeshott to get more than 85% 2PP (Adam must know what the record is), Labor to get less than 5% (possibly to come 4th behind the greens). If Labor wins the federal election, Vaile will resign from Lyne, Oakeshott will stand and win. I used to think he would do this as a Liberal and thus be in line for minor office but he may do it as an independent. In the subsequent bye-election for Port Macquarie, Labor will not stand a candidate and some sort of contest or deal will be done in the coalition.

The demographics suggest this should be an eventual Labor seat but the party no longer has an infrastructure after tacitly supporting Oakeshott for years. Many sea changers come from a Labor background but they feel that the sniff of sea air separates them from the hoi-polloi and they vote conservative.