Comments on: Debnam’s curve

By: Hugo

Hugo — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 05:06:53 +0000

Yes, a status quo result looks the most likely. Mick seems to be right on the money by predicting a result in the range of ALP +2 (Toukley & South Coast, possibility of a shock in somewhere like Epping) to -4 (could be a wildcat swing in any given seat, but it doesn’t look that likely; the best cahnce of taking seats off Labor looks to be in Newcastle, and that’d be to Independents).

The State Libs are getting their just deserts. They’ve had 4 years to work on having a better campaign than this, but they’ve been too busy fighting amongst themselves. John Brogden, if you’re reading this, you can console yourself with the fact that this ALP voter thinks that you would have been premier next week.

By: Geoff Lambert

Geoff Lambert — Tue, 20 Mar 2007 03:49:56 +0000

Late swings and roundabouts.

Some people are hoping that history will repeat itself and that the electorate are waiting for Morris with baseball bats. This is based on the perception that the results in Queensland (whenever?) and Victoria, in 1999, saw surpising results that were unexpected from polling.

Sorry- in the case of Victoria, at least, this was not so. Morgan data is sparse, Nielsen non-existent and Newspoll was 2-monthly.The trend line, that popular weapon of the psephologist, was pointing at a TPP of 49.2% over the period Feb 1999 to September 1999 and the result on election day was 50%.

No surprises there.

But, perhaps, next Saturday…..?

BTW, Morgan appear to have done an “Elvis has left the building” in respect of February- no numbers have appeared yet.

By: Edward StJohn

Edward StJohn — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 23:15:24 +0000

Evan,

I never doubted your incisive analysis.

EStJ

By: Evan

Evan — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 22:12:18 +0000

For all those sceptical about my observations that the Liberals might have some trouble holding the seat of Epping – why then was Debnam campaigning yesterday in a supposedly safe blue ribbon Liberal seat?
Greg Smith is up at the local railway stations every morning, something Andrew Tink never did in previous election campaigns.

By: Geoff R

Geoff R — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 11:25:46 +0000

Barry, Georges River had similar boundaries to those you propose after the 1990 (or therabouts) redistribution. Labor was pleased when it was pushed to the north. However if you look at the federal figures some of the traditional Liberal areas in southern Sydney have moved towards Labor, it is the more Anglo areas that have gone the other way. Hence Banks (Labor since 1949) is now more marginal than Barton which was Liberal 1975-83. Londonderry is a strangely designed electorate, it would make more sense to have Windsor and Richmond in Hawkesbury and shed Kenthurst and Dural, but perhaps the 1988 numbers didn’t enable this.

By: Barry

Barry — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 10:13:52 +0000

Marcus,

I get your point. The river/bay frontage suburbs from Lugarno through to Ramsgate (currently in Oatley, Kogarah and Rockdale electorates) could be grouped together to create a more marginal seat. The leftover parts would result in two seats that are even safer for the ALP. btw Riverwood is entirely in the seat of Lakemba.

Londonderry is too far from where I live to make any reasonable comments except to say that there was no Lib candidate in 2003, so the ALP margin may be overstated.

Swings are rarely uniform, so the Libs may need less than 50% 2PP or substantially more than 50% PP to win.

By: Marcus

Marcus — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 08:48:28 +0000

Barry

I think if you were to put all the Georges River frontage suburbs in one seat, it would probably be a comfortable Liberal seat, at least at a normal election. Instead the area is split between 3 seats and swamped by safe Labor voting territory in East Hills, Riverwood and Kogarah. A similar argument could be made about Londonderry (where’s the connection between Richmond/Kurrajong and St Mary’s?) and a few others.

My point remains that the Libs will probably have to get substaintially more than 50% 2PP to actually win, so even at 47-53 they’re way off.

By: Barry

Barry — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 06:51:24 +0000

Marcus,

Personally, I would describe East Hills as a strong Labor area with a light scattering of Liberal voters. In 2003 the ALP won every booth quite comfortable. The Libs best booth was Picnic Point North where they polled 30.8%. Under the new boundaries it requires a 17.9% swing to change hands.

Voting figures by booth can be found on the NSW Electoral Commission website http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/state_government_elections/election_results/legislative_assembly_results

By: Mick Quinlivan

Mick Quinlivan — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 06:48:10 +0000

From what I can see 2007, will not be too far different from 1999 &
2003 in terms of the pattern. The unknown quantity is will the 20%
cross voting between state and federal figures continue.?
eg Menai(9% Alp) & Heathcote (over 11% Alp )which roughly equates to
the federal seat of hughes which has a liberal margin of over 8% on 2004
figures. I think it very unlikely that many extra independents will win.
Also I think it unlikely that the Alp can win more than 1-2 extra seats
(if any) from the non-labor parties. This equates at best to the status quo
in terms of seats and at worst a loss of 3-4 seats . by labor.

By: Jason Briggs

Jason Briggs — Mon, 19 Mar 2007 05:58:29 +0000

How many more voter opinion polls before the big day?