5.05am. Looks like the Coalition vote continued to build as upper house voting continued into the wee hours, probably putting the final seat beyond the reach of the Democrats, AAFI and Fishing Party. Likely result: Labor 9, Coalition 8, Greens 2, CDP 1, Shooters Party 1.
2.05am. A considered assessment of the upper house from Stephen L in comments.
1.38am. Apologies, I had not noticed other developments in the upper house count: Labor is now looking at nine seats, not eight; and the Liberals’ eighth candidate is currently leading the Democrats, AAFI and Fishing Party in the hunt for the final place. The other seats have gone two Greens, one CDP, one Shooters Party.
1.28am. In fact, the Fishing Party has fallen behind Australians Against Further Immigration, on 45,817.
1.16am. The gap between the Democrats and the Fishing Party has increased to 49,320 to 44,677. May it ever widen.
12.55am. Did kind of okay with my predictions: wrong about Camden, Murray-Darling, Pittwater, Tweed and Wollondilly, the latter two of which I foolishly changed at the last minute. Goulburn, Lake Macquarie, Dubbo, Newcastle, Port Stephens and Maitland are still up in the air.
11.05pm. A little critique of the media coverage. I have been flicking between ABC Television and Sky News, trying to favour the latter because I know most of my audience is watching the former. I wished this had not been necessary because the ABC was greatly superior, despite some very good talent on Sky. No prize for guessing what makes the difference: Antony Green. His presence and authority keeps the coverage focused on the actual election, whereas Sky was forced to fall back on tedious big-picture chat. If Sky hopes to establish its brand among political bigwigs – which seems to be the rationale behind things like NSW Votes 2007 and interactive election night coverage – it should appreciate that such people tune into election coverage for election results.
I got a bit cranky earlier on at the NSWEC for what I falsely diagnosed as a slowly updating XML feed and a "virtual tally room" that did not provide booth results. It turns out there were booth results, but to get them you had to click on a link identified as "Election Night". Why? As for the XML feed issue, this turned out to be limited to one page on the ABC website. So qualified apologies are in order.
Finally, bouquets to my spendid web hosts, Unlimited Space, who got an undeserved cranky email from me this morning and subsequently shamed me with the quality of their response. I am entirely lost for words in attempting to compare their performance with the incompetent scumbaggery I had to suffer from Lycos.
10.38pm. Tony Burke’s guess is that the Fishing Party and the Democrats, but not the Shooters Party, will win upper house seats.
10.29pm. Upper house count trending in favour of the Democrats. Please let it be …
10.26pm. Reader John Thompson, who seems well on top of the Newcastle count, says: "A few more preferences from Newcastle must have come through and put Gaudry ahead of Tate for 2nd place. And therefore Labor will retain. Assuming the indicative count is correct".
10.18pm. The Democrats and AAFI can by no means be ruled out for that last upper house seat; the Fishing Party have slipped a little with another 150,000 counted.
10.10pm. My hurried initial upper house assessment: Labor 8, Coalition 8, Greens 2, CDP 1, Shooters Party 1, Fishing Party (please, no …) 1.
10.04pm. Nearly 1 million votes counted in the upper house, and my prediction of an AAFI win is not looking good: they’re on 1.5 per cent.
10.01pm. Lot of talk still about Port Stephens – they lead 14,118 to 13,610 on the two-party count with two booths to come, but one of them is Tea Gardens, which is a weak booth for Labor.
9.53pm. News flash: Pru Goward now leads in Goulburn on the notional count with only one booth to go, 14,619 to 14,309. And shouldn’t she do well on pre-polls and postals?
9.50pm. Debman is trumpeting swings that have reduced margins to winnable levels, which is true up to a point, but there were also swings to Labor in important seats: Monaro, Penrith and Keira.
9.45pm. Peter Debnam isn’t talking like a man who’s about to surrender the leadership, or who in any way has anything to be ashamed of.
9.29pm. The invaluable Oakeshott Country in comments tells us that Labor’s vote "shot up with last booths to 40%". With Peter Blackmore on 27.1 per cent, he would need an extremely strong flow of preferences to get up.
9.25pm. Kerry Chikarovski’s observation just now of a 9.0 per cent Liberal swing in Lane Cove is not an isolated case. 8.1 per cent in Cronulla; 10.5 per cent in Epping; 10.6 per cent in Hawkesbury; 13.3 per cent in Hornsby; 10.2 per cent in Ku-ring-gai; 7.2 per cent in North Shore; 9.1 per cent in Vaucluse; 8.8 per cent in supposedly endangered Terrigal. These are incredible results, exactly where the party needed them least. Could it be that the Labor’s success in painting Peter Debnam as a Vaucluse toff prevented similar results elsewhere?
9.22pm. Nationals look to be recovering from their scare in Barwon.
9.18pm. Reader John Thompson has emailed me with an extrapolation from the Newcastle preference figures provided earlier by Anthony Llewellyn, which have Tate winning over Labor 13651 to 12695. But as Llewellyn himself notes in comments:"Word is the booth I was at is at the more conservative end of electorate. Pref flows better for alp elsewhere. In which case I may be vindicated in predicting alp retain. Still early days."
9.15pm. Actual two-party figures from Goulburn, with about 15 per cent of the booths still to come, including a few from Goulburn: Stephenson 7955, Goward 7791.
9.10pm. Looks like Pru’s stuffed, if talk on the ABC about a big flow of Greens preferences to the independent is anything to go by.
9.06pm. Geoff Provest credits his win in Tweed to the Casino to Murwillumbah rail closure. Yeah, I remember now, Charles Richardson – that was why I backed him.
9.05pm. Sorry, that Epping swing was based on the premise that independent Martin Levine would run second, which is way off the mark.
9.02pm. Some laughably big swings to the Liberals in their safe Sydney seats: 7.9 per cent in Castle Hill, 9.4 per cent in Cronulla … 16.8 per cent in Epping! Labor now home in Balmain.
8.58pm. ABC computer has independent Greg Piper 0.2 per cent ahead in Lake Macquarie, but there seems to be a perception preferences to Piper will be stronger than this assumes. Several days of fun await us from Goulburn: a double contest, with Labor threatening to beat the independent to second, and a tight contest between Goward and the independent.
8.57pm. Raw figures from Dubbo: Dawn Fardell 14,128, Nationals 14,655, Labor 3,819, CDP 726 votes, Greens 789 votes. Surely Fardell will get up on preferences.
8.55pm. Haven’t said anything about Dubbo for a while. The ABC computer 1.2 per cent ahead, but that may be based on speculative preference predictions.
8.51pm. Some Broken Hill booths finally in from Murray-Darling, and just looking at raw figures it appears the Labor vote has plunged here also (and the population of Broken Hill seems to have gone down by a third).
8.49pm. Nick Greiner on Sky News says he will “take a punt” on independents winning Maitland and Lake Macquarie. Bit of a repeat of 1988 with respect to the Hunter, if nothing else.
8.43pm. More from Leopold on Goulburn in comments: "Goward still 251 votes behind in Goulburn. Two very good booths for Goward, Bowral (3,200 votes) and Moss Vale Central (2,300 votes) yet to report 2PP. On the other hand, Goulburn High (2,500 votes) is very good for Stephenson and is also yet to report. May well not be decided tonight".
8.41pm. Was off line for about six minutes. What did I miss?
8.37pm. Tony Burke on Sky News observes that state Liberal governments have suffered from Coalition control of both houses at the federal level, leaving voters searching for other ways to redress the power balance.
8.30pm. Star comments performer Oakeshott Country says: “The Marrickville and Lewisham Booths are still out. I think Labor will be safe in Marrickville.”
8.27pm. The assessment on the ABC just then didn’t look so good for Labor in Marrickville, but we all know that the ABC computer is less reliable with no Labor-versus-Coalition contests.
8.25pm. Liberals definitely home in Pittwater, almost definitely in Manly.
8.22pm. ABC computer says Labor retain in Maitland, but it might be underestimating Liberal preference flows to Peter Blackmore. It seems Newcastle is down to who finishes second out of John Tate and Bryce Gaudry; if it’s Tate he’ll win, if Gaudry Labor will win.
8.20pm. Thanks to Adam for pointing out that the Nats are under the pump from independent Tim Horan in Barwon.
8.19pm. Big lead for the Nationals in Murray-Darling, but no Broken Hill booths in yet.
8.18pm. I came into Pru Goward on the ABC half way through.
8.16pm. Big reverse in Labor’s favour in the previously interesting Riverstone.
8.15pm. Leopold on Goulburn in comments: “a whopping booth in from somewhere – maybe Bowral, though for all I know it was a bunch of small booths. Unless the trend turns around later in the count, Goward should get home. Anything above 40% primary will be hard to beat under OPV.”
8.13pm. Anthony Llewellyn in comments: “Just finished scrutineering in a newc booth. Pref flows for libs 56 Tate 24 gaudry 16 exhaust 4 mckay. Greens 9 m 8 t 50 g 34 e. Gaudry 15 m 32 t 53 e. Tate 40m 25 g 35e”". Make of that what you will.
8.11pm. Returning to earth now with aggregate vote figures: Labor now down 4.8 per cent. Conspicuously lower lift for the Liberals than the Nationals. Other parties’ gains lower than I would have expected.
8.09pm. Andrew Stoner has conceded defeat.
8.09pm. Labor by no means out of the woods in Port Stephens, only 0.6 per cent ahead with 35.6 per cent counted.
8.07pm. Thanks to Rebecca in comments for calling attention to Lake Macquarie – drat, Antony’s discussing it now. Independent Greg Piper might get up, but it depends on unpredictable preferences. And as Antony says, booths to come are mining areas, so who knows.
8.06pm. Do I have this right – that the independent might lose in Goulburn because Labor might get ahead of him into second place on Greens preferences?
8.04pm. ABC computer’s call of Camden as a Labor gain looks bold – only 0.9 per cent ahead.
8.02pm. But the notional two-party count, which I don’t think you can argue with, shows the slightest narrowing the margin in Goulburn, in absolute if not relative terms – from 303 votes to 294 votes (comparing 4813 votes counted with 8308)
8.01pm. Too much chat on Sky News and not enough results.
7.59pm. Talk in comments about Pru Goward’s primary vote edging upwards. What was that Barry O’Farrell was saying about the Labor exhaustion rate? I only caught the odd phrase here and there.
7.58pm. Big swing still there in Riverstone, Labor leading to 2.6 per cent.
7.54pm. Goulburn notional two-party count has Goward trailing 2,558 to 2,255.
7.51pm. ABC computer has Newcastle down as a gain for John Tate.
7.49pm. No trouble in any of the other Liberal-held seats like Lane Cove, South Coast and Terrigal.
7.47pm. Interesting early figures from Riverstone – a huge swing to the Liberals. The booths are Marsden Park, Schofield and Vineyard. Anyone know about them?
7.44pm. Looking very grim for Pru Goward in Goulburn. I am greatly surprised. Barry O’Farrell pretending to be unhappy.
7.42pm. 4.4 per cent swing to Labor in Penrith, a correction after a big swing in 2003.
7.38pm. New figures at the ABC site: Close in Balmain, but Labor should get over the line. The computer has Labor winning Camden, Keira, Kiama, Menai, Miranda, Monaro and The Entrance. Liberals down as winning Pittwater.
7.38pm. Liberals well ahead in Wollondilly but only 3.0 per cent counted.
7.38pm. Liberals home in Hawkesbury.
7.37pm. Liberals looking pretty good in Manly.
7.36pm. STILL no new results on the ABC site. Liberals apparently home in Pittwater.
7.34pm. Aggregate figures are interesting: Labor down 7.0 per cent on the primary vote with 12.7 per cent counted, although there are a lot of rural booths here and it has been coming down.
7.33pm. Labor doing better than expected in Newcastle, but preferences are wildly unpredictable.
7.32pm. Turns out you can see booth results on the NSWEC site by clicking on “Election Night” on the electorate page.
7.26pm. Nationals chap (only listening, couldn’t see who it was) disagrees with Antony, talking of “a lot of seats that are coming across”. But he might be seeing a better performance from the Nationals than the Liberals, consistent with the Victorian election.
7.24pm. Sky News says the Nationals are well ahead in Monaro, though only from 2 per cent of the vote.
7.23pm. “No signs of Labor losing any seats at all, says Antony, whose figures are half an hour ahead of anything I have access to.
7.22pm. “Menai looking better than Miranda”, says Barry O’Farrell. Antony calls the election. Says Labor have lost Tweed, which is the first I have heard of this. Curse you, Charles Richardson …
7.21pm. Still no new results on the ABC site. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this the fault of the NSWEC XML feed? If so, they are doing an extremely poor job.
7.20pm. Labor in front in Miranda.
7.19pm. With 10 per cent counted, Pru Goward looks to be in trouble; but this is from Goulburn. I expect the northern areas to do better for her, and ABC talking heads concur. But a downcast Barry O’Farrell is talking of disappointing results at the other end of the seat. This is a big surprise for me.
7.19pm. Peter Blackmore looking very good in Maitland from about 4 per cent of the vote.
7.18pm. First booth in Pittwater has a massive Liberal primary vote; God knows where it is.
7.17pm. Nick Greiner says a booth in Miranda shows an 8 per cent swing with a “good” preference flow and high rate of Greens exhaustion, suggesting a close result perhaps favouring Liberal.
7.15pm. John Gatfield on Sky News is talking about Liberal confidence in Pittwater and a better than expected performance in the Hunter Valley.
7.14pm. Adam Carr hears the Greens are not as doing as well in Balmain as the first booth suggested.
7.13pm. Listening to Sky News now. Liberals looking very good in Miranda; 49.1 per cent on the primary vote from 5.9 per cent.
7.12pm. Slender lead to the Nationals in Tamworth, according to the ABC computer. Primary figures looked okay for the independent though.
7.10pm. Looks like the NSWEC have a slow-updating XML feed, and a website that doesn’t give booth results. The only way of knowing what’s going on is to watch ABC TV.
7.09pm. Chris Hartcher looking okay in Terrigal.
7.08pm. ABC site hasn’t updated for a while; I gather the XML feed is updating in fits and starts.
7.06pm. Early figures from Balmain looking almost interesting for the Greens, though we’ve been here before.
7.04pm. Very early booth in Hawkesbury has Pringle better than I would have expected.
7.02pm. As always, the first booths to come in have mostly been small rural ones; they point to swings to the Nationals in the 3 per cent to 4 per cent range.
7.01pm. Small early swing to the Nationals in independent-held Dubbo; on this indication, it should be close.
6.59pm. Apparently Antony said Labor looking good in Monaro.
6.58pm. Someone on Sky News was talking up Orange. God knows why; Nationals looking safe from independent John Davis.
6.57pm. The Murray-Darling swing to the Nationals is 16.1 per cent, though only from 1.5 per cent. “No particular swing in Lismore”; yeah, Labor looking okay in Bathurst.
6.56pm. General early impression is of small swings, consistent with the exit poll.
6.55pm. Also looking better for Labor in Bathurst.
6.54pm. Looking better for Peter Draper in Tamworth now.
6.53pm. Antony Green has called The Entrance for Labor. Slowly getting back into the loop here …
6.52pm. Sorry, offline for a while there.
6.50pm. Early figures from Murray-Darling look very good for the Nationals.
6.48pm. First very small booth in Camden has the Liberals slightly ahead – I’m just seeing this from Sky News though and it might be a raw figure.
6.44pm. Stephen Loosley talking about losing five seats on Sky News.
6.43pm. First booth in from Tweed, worth 0.9 per cent, shows 6 per cent swing to the Nationals, enough to cost Labor the seat.
6.39pm. Early swing to the Nationals in independent-held Tamworth. Most of the other seats with results in are not of interest.
6.37pm. A very early result from Murray-Darling shows a very small swing, enough to make it lineball.. Labor guy not sounding optimistic.
6.36pm. Antony discussing Goulburn on ABC TV. One very small booth in, and a great result for Pru Goward. Their Liberal talking head (can’t see him) saying another booth is also good. I can’t say I’m surprised.
6.33pm. ABC2 no good to me in Perth – apparently it’s delayed two hours, like everything else they broadcast. But as Adam tells us in comments, you can see it online here.
6.30pm. Bloody hell, no individual booth results from the NSWEC. There’s a tiny country booth in from Murrumbidgee, but no way of knowing which one.
5.38pm. The poll covered Oatley, Riverstone, Wyong, Londonderry, The Entrance, Miranda, Menai, Camden, Port Stephens, Monaro, Tweed and Penrith. The Coalition would have wanted to be looking at a 54-46 lead here to be on the track for a majority, but it’s actually the other way round. The primary vote was Labor 46 per cent, Coalition 41.1 per cent, which sounds disappointing from the perspective of the non-major parties.
5.30pm. Hawker Britton exit poll announced on Sky News, based on polling in 12 key seats, says a 5 per cent swing against Labor.
326 Comments
While we have surveys like the exit poll, something I like about elections is that you never actually know what the result will be until it comes in. Before then, it could be almost anything (especially in this election) !
A lone voice from South Australia shall have the first comment! I’m still predicting a sharp swing to the Liberals and the loss of quite a few more seats than predicted! Menai to fall I reckon!
Just a note for interstate psepho-tragics. You can access the ABC TV election coverage at the ABC website using RealPlayer and Windows.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2007/default.htm
First results in. A booth in Murrumbidgee. No suprises there but pretty efficient, within 20 minutes.
Although apparently you’ll have to watch the thugball first…
Adam, many thanks. Following from Vic is now a little easier
For those who are interested in the results without the commentaries, the NSW Electoral Commission has live updates on their website.
http://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/index.htm
For those of you with a life, go to the pub
I think we all know this is a hardcore tragics website
Our own dear Antony is now on air
I have to go to a mate’s 21st tonight but will be disappearing into the carpark to listen to news radio from time to time! A tragic indeed!
According to the Daily Telegraph ’s online poll, Liberal are 64% to Labors 46%
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/election/
Pringle doing very well in Hawkesbury
I didn’t realise that Pringle had the sort of local following that would enable him to get up!
Hawkesbury: I wouldn’t expect much booth by booth variation in Pringle’s vote so even this small sample is encouraging. I grew up in Hawkesbury ‘tiger country’ for Labor.
Antony is calling The Entrance for Labor
People Election night ends before midnight, leaving plenty of time to go out and have a bit of fun
ABC is reporting that Steve Whan is in very serious trouble in Monaro, as I’ve been predicting for a couple of months.
Good luck to everyone involved in this NSW election.
This IS having fun.
I just heard Antony say that Monaro was looking good for Labor.
Remebering Manaro at federal level is seen as going to whoever wins, does the area have the same status at state level.
ABC lists “69.1% swing” in Cessnock! Obviously one tiny Nats booth….
bmwofoz: Not really. Eden-Monaro covers a much larger area; Monaro at state level really only covers Queanbeyan and some surrounding rural areas. It has often been held by the party holding government, as a key marginal, but is no bellwether seat.
Could Cessnock be NSW’s Narracan
More likely a computer error, Marcus.
Thanks Rebecca
stephenson doing much better now in goulburn…will depend where they are coming from.
Gloomy for Bathurst? ABC says Labor retain with 2% swing against
what is the state swing at this early stage?
Early days, but Greens look like they’re giving Heathcote a shake…
Marcus: I accidentally uploaded an earlier page; back in the modern world now.
The Greens are apparently not doing well in Balmain or Marrickville, which supports my view that the Work Cover issue and the rise of Peter Garrett are bringing the “soft greeny” vote back to Labor
10.5% swing to Libs in a booth in Menai … I’m certain that seat will go to the Libs!
“Liberal are 64% to Labors 46%”
Craig,
Did you read that in the Telegraph of is that the truth?
Blackmore looking OK (assuming Lib prefs) in Maitland, but again early days
First results in Newcastle from Islington ( old labor becoming Yuppie) McKay in front at 36%
Booths in Maitland are not strong Labor usually.
2 Points.
1- The ABC site appears to have stopped working.
2- This Election looks a little like Victoria’s with bog swings to the Liberals in their own areas and in the area’s like Menei and Mirandi, but look like the Government will be returned.
It’s a pity they don’t have individual booth results, especially for seats like Heathcote, Londonderry and Menai with a diverse range of booths
ABC says booth in Menai is 10% to ALP.
The ozpolitics live commentary seems to have disappeared..
Click on individual seats within ABC site to get up-to-date stuff
O joy unbounded – Goward is not doing well
ABC showing Paul Stephenson ahead on 2PP, but the booths are from the Goulburn end, and he may not be doing quite well enough there to hang on when the Southern Highlands booths start coming in.
O’Barrell concedes no gains in Sydney
Marrickville is looking ok for the Greens
Anthony just called the election for Labor – Tweed only seat likely to loose.
ALP preference could get Stephenson over the line, but my money is on Pru
I can see individual booth results on the EC website just fine…look harder.
So is Anthony giving Miranda to the ALP
I don’t think Green has called Miranda. The ABC website gives it to Labor. O’Farrell clearly conceded “no gains in Sydney”
Nats are paranoid conspiracy theorists!
Libs are nasty to Antony!
I hate them!
You couldn’t be a bit more helpful, Alex?
Oh, I see, I have to click on “Election Night”. Of course.
Will someone tell the ABC that Duncan Gay is not the Deputy Opposition Leader?
He’s the deputy opposition leader in the upper house, presumably.
ABC now has Liberals retaining Hawkesbury
Pittwater to the Libs, Manly too close to call
William
Click on the individual seats names on ABC. You get current results there.
the ABC site frontpage just updated
It’s shaping up to be a pretty boring election night, I think. I predicted a similar result, but I was hoping there’d be at least a few changes of seats. It’s a bit of a shame to see a couple of the independents in trouble, too.
Labor very safe in Penrith – libs should have stuck with Big Jim Aitken
Looks like a near-universal swing to the Coalition, but not enough to change seats. 5% or so in The Entrance, Minai, Miranda and Camden for example. Also swings in Coalition marginals like South Coast and Terrigal.
Labor’s margin is narrower – that’ll be the best spin that Debnam can put out there. If Labor gets back with 54, as ABC is predicting, surely he will have to resign.
There is no such thing as a boring election night
Thanks Marcus.
Looks like Coalition have won back some of their heartland voters but not much progress beyond this.
“Goward in real trouble” – Anthony Green
Antony, sorry
Did I just hear O’brien say “The Prime Minister gave Pru Goward a helping hand”?
From a federal preceptive NSW and Victorian Elections are simular in the liberals getting good swings to them in areas that they needed except Penrith and these good swings for the Liberals are in areas that the ALP will need swings to win Canberra, what can we take from this.
Don’t get too excited. Wouldn’t be completely stunned if Goward losing Goulburn means that she heads another hour down the Hume Highway come October.
pru (Goulburn) is only on 37% thats a poor result
OC, yes. He didn’t say where the hand was placed.
Riverstone – few remaining rural booths.
What federal seat could Pru run in
Adam i see there a 10 percent swing to the Greens in marrickville what are your people on the ground saying?
bmwofoz (don’t I know you from somewhere?
) – I don’t have a specific seat in mind. She’s from Sydney, isn’t she? Perhaps if Cadman or Bishop finally get the tap on the shoulder. Or, for something completely left-field, would the Qld Liberal Party consider bringing her in for the Senate? Howard wants a high-profile outsider – she’d certainly fit that profile.
The ALP person on ABC Radio is claiming Merrickville
The ABC calls a 3.8 swing in Marrickville and ALP to retain. In Balmain a 2.2 swing and ALP retain.
Bill, the front page has earlier figure – click on the link and the swing is only 3.8 per cent.
What!! people read what I write LOL
I agree with Kieran about Nats being paranoid conspiracy theorists!
Just heard Duncan Gay on ABC radio claiming that ALP were handing out HTVs for independents. When I was a financial member of the Nats, the Nats handed out HTVs for independents running in ALP seats!
Wouldn’t be calling Goulburn just yet – Antony’s computer is far less reliable in 3rd-party contests and Goward has been extending her primary vote lead as counting continues.
ABC has Maitland down as ALP retain, but with only 35% of the vote. They musn’t be factoring Blackmore in.
The ABC computer is calling Goulburn for the Ind
Tweed is the only clear ALP loss at present
Only 6.5% counted according to ABC, but Mamdouh Habib has thus far polled only 4.9% even with the donkey vote coming his way.
Can’t say that I’m surprised.
Riverstone – wait for Bligh Park and riverstone booths,(largely commission housing )
1/3 of Labor votes exhausting. Labor may finish 2nd after green preferences (horror)
According to ABC, she might be doing better on primary votes, but her TPP is going the other way. Currently 56% to Stephenson, 44% to Goward.
One under the radar…Lake Macquarie could still go to the ind.
Evon donkeys won’t vote for a jackass
Here’s one nobody’s commented on
ABC has Port Stephens essentially neck-and-neck. Be interesting to know if the booths were mainly from the coastal or Hunter end of the electorate.
Marrickville looks dodgy for ALP but Marrickville Central is not in
The results for Lake Macquarie coming from the ABC computer sound rather interesting, and a bit of a surprise. It’d be nice to see a bit of analysis.
Mayfield is industrial Newcastle in seat of Port Stephens – it is not in.
I would wait for the mining towns in Lake Macquarie.
Typical. As soon as I say that, Goward rallies. Now at 48.1%. ALP’s strong performance could hurt Stephenson.
Just for the record, Peter K mentioned Lake Macquarie first, not me.
Just finished scrutineering in a newc booth. Pref flows for libs 56 Tate 24 gaudry 16 exhaust 4 mckay. Greens 9 m 8 t 50 g 34 e. Gaudry 15 m 32 t 53 e. Tate 40m 25 g 35e
You’re doing good, Oakeshott Country – answered a few questions before I got around to asking.
Goward just surged to a 3,300 vote lead on primaries, 40% to 25%.
I can see the preference count at 8,300 votes William, but the primary count is at 22,800 and she just got a whopping booth in from somewhere – maybe Bowral, though for all I know it was a bunch of small booths.
Unless the trend turns around later in the count, Goward should get home. Anything above 40% primary will be hard to beat under OPV.
Bligh Park is in- Riverstone now 54% Labor Primary.
God, Helen Coonan is sexy.
Has anyone heard anything from Maitland? The ABC computer results for that seat are completely messed up, as it’s still predicting it as Labor vs Liberal.
dear god
OC… that was very disturbing.
I think that Goulburn booth was Bowral – Heartland Liberal
Has anyone noticed the Nats are in trouble in Barwon?
Can I ask what is the typical rate of exhaustion for Labor in NSW?
My comments on Goulburn are based on my recollection that > 50% of labor votes usually exhaust under OPV. If that is not the case, she is more likely to lose.
Labor doing quite well in the Illawarra, contrast with the Hunter.
Maitland – the new poor housing estates are the booths standing out.
Coming in late here, but NSW election coverage is on ABC2 nationally at 6.30pm LOCAL time, which for those outside of NSW/Victoria, it will be on delay.
Barwon- Horan’s home booth Coonamble, is not in.
Maitland won’t have any TPP results for the indepdent because the SEQ won’t have asked the counters to count 2pp for Blackmore. Looking at the figures, Blackmore will win so it’s not really one to watch.
Yeah, I complained about that earlier Frank.
Goward now at 49.4% on TPP. Should get home from here. At least that keeps her out of Canberra.
Marrickville is looking a lot closer than I’d have expected.
The Daily Telegraph have jumped the gun on Goulburn:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,21440274-5001021,00.html
Tebbutt is only a whisker ahead in Marrickville, so I have to retract my earlier comment about the Greens
The Marrickville and Lewisham Booths are still out. I think Labor will be safe in Marrickville.
I am a little uncomfortable with the ABC preference predictions. Not sure how reliable they are, given optional preferential, and hidd how to vote cards.
I’m a bit surprised at the results from Epping – it looks like the Liberals worrying about Martin Levine’s independent candidacy was unnecessary, as he’s only polled 6%.
does anyone believe that the Nats are on 62.6% 2PV in Murray-Darling?
It certainly doesn’t look good for Black if that is true, but I’d be a bit curious about where those booths are coming from – Murray-Darling is a big seat, and they may be from the non-Broken Hill end of the electorate.
Adam, there’s still nothing in from Broken Hill in Murray-Darling.
http://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/lafirstcandidates.murray-darling.aspx
Goward still 251 votes behind in Goulburn.
Two very good booths for Goward, Bowral (3,200 votes) and Moss Vale Central (2,300 votes) yet to report 2PP.
On the other hand, Goulburn High (2,500 votes) is very good for Stephenson and is also yet to report. May well not be decided tonight.
Dubbo still neck and neck. Where is the Independent’s strength in that seat, and are those booths in yet?
Ah I didn’t realise that Broken Hills is 30 minutes behind the rest of the state so the BH booths aren’t in yet.
Surely Peter Blackmore and one of Tate/Gaudry are over the line in their respective seats? Or am I missing something?
Tenambit and Thorton are still out in Maitland – they are poor housing estates.
Goulborn is final for the night – Goward on 40%
Marcus, Dubbo has only one outstanding booth – Narromine.
Ind should get Labor preferences, so I say she is comfortably ahead.
The ABC website is still carrying a headline saying Black has conceded in Murray-Darling, but which gets a 404 error. Not sure what’s going on there.
Haven’t heard anything from Maitland in a while – the figures look very encouraging, however. I’d say Tate looks like he’s going to get up in Newcastle based on these figures – he’s gotten further in front of Gaudry. The ABC computer is bollocksed in both cases, so it’s hard to tell.
Have they stopped counting preferences as well?
Stephenson leads 7,484 to 7,258 if so – 226 vote difference after Bundanoon was added in.
That big swing in Riverstone seems to have vanished into the ether…….
Labor is back well in front in Marrickville
From the NSW Electoral Commission’s site, Phil Koperberg is going well in Blue Mountains.
Candidate Party % First Pref Votes
KOPERBERG ALP 41 12,166
PAAG LP 28 8,331
McINNES GRN 17 4,955
DWIGHT AAFI 2 553
WILCOX ORP 1 432
STOCK 12 3,588
Total Formal Votes Counted 30,025
Informal 657
Total Votes Counted 30,682
Word is the booth I was at is at the more conservative end of electorate. Pref flows better for alp elsewhere. In which case I may be vindicated in predicting alp retain. Still early days.
News just in from the ABC: John Watkins has just confirmed that preferences in Goulburn are *not* going to the ALP, but rather to Paul Stephenson. This removes one of the two big question marks over the result.
Did the Sydney ABC radio coverage end at 9pm? Suddenly I’m listening to Sam Neill prattling on about his wine label?
Sorry, that should be Green preferences…
Mayfield is now in for Port Stephens – I think its a Labor loss
Green preferences are going 2nd to stephenson in goulburn, then to ALP. In Newcastle they go 2nd to gaudry and then exhaust. Their full preferences are available on their website:
http://nsw.greens.org.au/materials/leaflets/A4%20Absentee%20Booklet.pdf
Yes I think Murray-Darling is gone – of course that’s not actually a loss, but it is disappointing. Broken Hll having had Labor representation since 1894.
Goward currently just 164 votes behind on TPP. I wouldn’t be expecting a result before mid-week at best.
It is so much like the Victorian election: big swings but not where it matters.
I guess the Lib spin will be that they have at least cut the margin in Miranda, Camden, Menai, Port Stephens and a few Central Coast seats to under 5%, which is gettable for 2011.
At least the Independent contests keep it interesting!
Greens preferences in Goulburn were directed to Stephenson, then Parker. Strong local branch with most booths having htvs in place all day.
Pip hinman is running 4th in Marrickville in front of the Dems
Marcus Says:
At least the Independent contests keep it interesting!
and the future
The ABC stopped, I’m now got the radio going and a good song for the Liberals – Little Acorns – Whitestripes.
A very poor result for the Liberals, but we have been seeing this result coming for sometime
Charlie, Sydney ABC Radio coverage is still going on 702AM
bmfwoz: If you’re interested, the ABC election coverage is still going on TV.
Another similarity with Victoria is that with only another 1-2% the Libs could have snapped up an extra couple of seats, probably being the difference between an ‘okay’ and a poor election.
Marrickville final for night ALP 47% primary
Well I am farked. In Riverstone Aquilina who is a nice bloke has actually increased his share of the vote. Looks like he picked them up from GRN and other minor party candidates.
That does me as an election prognosticator. For ever. Just cynical and irreverent comments from now on.
Jon Aquilina walks on water.
I’ve moved over to Radio National. I don’t know what was going on but I was getting Sam Neill, then a new single by Tim Finn on 702. Thanks Barry.
Maitland Final: Alps vote shot up with last booths to 40%
Murray-Darling is disappointing but expected. In 1920 Broken Hill elected the ‘Industrial Socialist Labor Party’ candidate, times change.
That’s OK, Not to be taken seriously. We didn’t.
I think this makes a Coalition win in 2011 near inevitable. Alot of seats with margins of say, 16pc have had swings to the Coalition of a 6, 7, 8 percent, so they’re reachable the next time around.
That woman in Penrith looks like a complete goose – but she won so who am I to criticise?
This surely must be a total disaster for the Lib/Nats in reality. Thry have picked up 10% swings in seats that didn’t matter. In places like Blacktown where, for the record, Greenway was centred, ZILCH. And that was with the ALP running a discredited and lazy candidate whose main campaign effort was putting his visage on posters in bus shelters.
I can’t see the Libs going anywhere in 2011.
2PP in Goulburn essentially 50-50
By that reckoning, Adam, Julia Irwin must be one of the best and brightest MPs in Australia.
Did I hear correctly, did the ABC and Chikka say Howard’s seat covers Lane Cove, I thought it was further West
NTBTS
It’s looking like the Libs will need to get something like 7-8 seats with a 4-ish% swing in 2011. God help them if they couldn’t do that against a 16 year old government.
Julia is not defending a marginal, whereas Ms Penrith did. But she needs to learn to answer questions and not just recite her lines.
Lane Cove is not in Bennelong.
An abysmal concession speech from Debnam!
Not a shock the ALP lost Tweed.
But, I’m surprised they won Penrith and Monaro so easily, held on to Camden & Wollindilly, and very probably could retain Miranda and Menai.
A 12 year old government, with obvious failures in many policy areas, should have done a lot worse tonight.
The Liberals blew this one, ladies and gentlemen!
I didn’t think Bennelong covered Lane Cove, but for a Jurno to ask Chikka what does the result in Lane Cove say for Howard in Bennenlong
Yeah, but what do you expect the loser to say on election night?
“We are crap and I’m a dud leader”???
The state seat of Lane Cove now covers about half of the abolished seat of Gladesville. This area is Labor leaning and within the Ryde Council area. It has little connection to Lane Cove as such, but is within the seat of Bennelong. Its inclusion is the reason the blue-ribbon Lane Cove seat has become marginal.
The lady doing floor interviews on the ABC (her name?) is a dill.
A pretty dismal coverage from the ABC tonight.
Quentin Dempster ought to retire, Lee Sayles ought to go back to Washington, and Kerry O’Brien very much out of his depth!
Thank goodness for Anthony Greene, and John Watkins/Barry O’Farrell.
Maitland – Why didn’t the Liberals run Blackmore as their candidate
Did Peter Debnam get a swing in his own seat?
Politicians are ALWAYS better election commentators than journalists.
In the upper house which group is first on the ballot paper?
Marcus: yes, big time. About 9 per cent. Same story in all safe Liberal Sydney seats.
same story as Vic – the Libs restore their base vote, but no real dent in the majority.
Bill,
Group A on LC ballot is a non registered party, they call themselves Carers.
Lee Rhiannon was interesting to listen to – or at least that bleat about “corporate donations” was for sheer unintentional entertainment.
If i remember correctly her parents were CPA members back in the day.
Adam said “same story as Vic – the Libs restore their base vote, but no real dent in the majority.” which is, Marcus, what I was trying to say to say but more succinctly. I can see the ALP running brilliant campaigns in their marginals (which is what they do best) and keeping power in 2011.
sorry i meant on top of this table the group who has 66665 votes
…. 66665 8.4 1.9 +4.1 positive swingpositive swing
A.A.F.I. 11795 1.5 0.3 +0.9 positive swingpositive swing
Aust. Democrats 12121 1.5 0.3 0.0 negative swingnegative swing
Christian Dems 31526 4.0 0.9 +1.0 positive swingpositive swing
Coalition 257436 32.6 7.2 -0.7 negative swingnegative swing
Dawn Fraser 651 0.1 0.0 +0.1 positive swingpositive swing
Fishing Party 13140 1.7 0.4 +1.3 positive swingpositive swing
Greens 63949 8.1 1.8 -0.5 negative swingnegative swing
Group A 4595 0.6 0.1 +0.6 positive swingpositive swing
Group F 3882 0.5 0.1 +0.5 positive swingpositive swing
Group H 678 0.1 0.0 +0.1 positive swingpositive swing
Group M 873 0.1 0.0 +0.1 positive swingpositive swing
Horse Riders/Outdoor Rec 4529 0.6 0.1 +0.2 positive swingpositive swing
Human Rights 2834 0.4 0.1 +0.1 positive swingpositive swing
Labor Party 273944 34.7 7.6 -8.9 negative swingnegative swing
Save Our Suburbs 1681 0.2 0.1 -0.3 negative swingnegative swing
Shooters Party 24309 3.1 0.7 +1.0 positive swingpositive swing
Socialist Alliance 2744 0.3 0.1 +0.2 positive swingpositive swing
Ungrouped 0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Unity 5657 0.7 0.2 -0.7 negative swingnegative swing
Workers Rights 7134 0.9 0.2 +0.9 positive swingpositive swing
Results Guide:
* Home
* Electorate Results
* Parties
* Changing Seats
* Doubtful Seats
* Legislative Council results
* ABC Online Home Page
© 2007 ABC | Privacy Policy
The other outstanding Pt Stephens booth is “Fingal Bay”. Anybody know anything about that area?
In Londonderry the Lib candidate increased the vote by 26.1% which puts Debbers somewhat in the shade. 2PP is 45/55 which is hardly marginal.
NTBTS
Yeah but Labor can’t run the “There’s more to do but we’re getting on with the job” line after 16 years!
Marcus, you can see a polling booth map here
The Libs didn’t run in Londonderry in 2003, did they? Wasn’t there a by-election because someone died?
Green bashing seems to be the go for some on here, yet the same ones cry foul if you don’t tow the ALP right line. Who cares is someones parents came from the CPA. There plenty of ex CPA and other Marxists in the ALP. Both the Greens and the ALP are multi dimensional and will have people of different backgrounds politically. What i think is funny the ALP see me as too left. the SA/DSP CPA etc see me as too right. Id hate to think what FF and libs think
So two Lib-leaning booth to come in Pt Stephens, eh? Might sustain interest for a while longer.
Marcus, Libs didn’t contest Londonderry byelection in 2003.
Just a pointer/thought. Unless I’m mistaken, the borders of Port Stephens and Newcastle changed around the suburb of Mayfield, so that it’s now split between the two whereas it was previously in Newcastle. Being an ALP stronghold, it may end up costing the ALP Newcastle to keep Port Stephens.
So how did the Greens fare overall ? an unbiased view
Hey Bill, my guess is roadkill
Barry
That’s what I meant. So their 30-odd % increase is off a base of 0.
I see the Greens do very well in Coogee, but somewhat less well in Drummoyne, I know they are on different sides of Sydney’s CBD, but I would have thought they would be simular areas.
The Greens are overrated for we have alway had third parties whom poll well.
Jim Anderson. the member for Londonderry died on the morning of the election (the same thing happenedwhen Bracks won in Vic – it must be stressful). The election was abandoned and the Libs didn’t contest the bye-election.
Fingal Bay is where workers from Newcastle retire – however, they often lose their heritage when they get there. I suspect it is a marginally liberal booth
William, don’t you like the Fishing Party?
Frankston “bloody” East, just my luck my old seat.
No, bmwofoz. I do not like the Fishing Party.
My calculations have the Dems winning the last upperhouse spot.. by only 0.03% so it could change very quickly.
In 2003, Fingal Bay voted:
ALP 441
Lib 327
GNS 30
ONN 12
Ind 11
AD 10
CDP 2
They do sound fishy but why don’t you like them?
Do the Greens do better in the more ALP type seats in NSW or Libs.In SA we seem to do better in the more affluent Lib areas
This is Lee Rhiannon’s mother:
http://www.womenaustralia.info/biogs/AWE1271b.htm
Not just any old CPA member but a leading cadre for many years and a very hardline Stalinist.
Maybe he doesn’t like those “I fish and I vote” bumper stickers.
A lifelong campaigner and activist, Freda Brown is a highly respected figure in the history of Australian women’s organizations. She was a Communist Party of Australia candidate for Newtown in 1947 and a Senate
candidate in 1949 and 1961.
Highly respected! seems good to me. Not many pollies are respected at all let alone highly
Assuming that the ALP retains Port Stephens, Fardell retains Dubbo and Goward wins Goulburn, the Coalition needs to win seven seats in 2011 for a hung parliament and 12 for a majority in their own right.
At this stage, current counting (as of a few minutes ago, at any rate) had the new figures looking like this:
Port Stephens – 0.1
Miranda – 0.7
Menai – 2.8
Wollondilly – 3.6
Camden – 4.1
Londonderry – 4.3
The Entrance – 4.8
———————
Gosford – 5.2
Wyong – 6.3
Monaro – 6.7
Coogee – 7.5
Heathcote – 8.0
An improvement, but still not exactly pleasant reading for the Coalition, which can probably only hope to take power with the help of independents. The ABC projections give a marginally more pessimistic outlook:
Port Stephens – 0.7
Miranda – 0.8
Menai – 2.5
Wollondilly – 2.8
Camden – 3.2
Gosford – 4.4
The Entrance – 4.9
———————
Monaro – 6.1
Wyong – 6.7
Londonderry – 7.3
Coogee – 7.5
Drummoyne – 8.1
Bill,
Greens do well in Inner City & Eastern suburbs (mostly ALP areas), Northern Rivers (National held seats – 20% in Ballina & 18% in Lismore), Blue Mountains (16%).
All the results are on Electoral Commission website.
Adam is there more anti Green ALP members in the Eastern States because here in SA there seems to be more friendly relationships between members and voters
thanks Barry
If the Coalition can get a 3% swing with Debnam as leader, if he’s not there four years down the track, they might have a shot at picking up those seats.
Assuming everything else stays constant. Which in politics, is a sure thing.
Mittagong South is a small booth, but good for Goward on primaries, so she should lead by about 400 when it comes in. I agree she should do well on postals. Her, Greg Smith and Mike Baird all entering parliament – some minor good news for the Liberals.
As for Debnam – the government is back with at most 3 seats lost, and while I haven’t spent the time to do a precise calculation, you’d be looking for a swing of at least 8% for a Coalition majority in 2011. If he calls that a good result, I hate to think what he bad one would look like.
Surely – surely – Debnam must be rolled and Barry O’Farrell take the leadership job. They would have to be barking mad to hang onto him – oh, I forgot, I’m talking about the NSW Liberals.
Has anyone got an overall 2-party figure or estimate? 53-47 would be my guess from the primaries.
In Victoria The Greens do best in the inner suburbs and the Dandenong/Yarra valley
bmwofoz Says:
March 24th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
In Victoria The Greens do best in the inner suburbs and the outer East and around the Dandenongs/Yarra valley
Greens booth coverage is very patchy outside inner city areas. They do better in booths whey they have someone to hand out HTVs. In areas in western Sydney where GRN booth coverage is good their vote improved. The GRNs had for the first time two full time area coordinators working in western and south western Sydney.
thanks bmwofoz
Bill:
I take it you don’t read Andrew Landeryou’s blog ? He’s ALP.
A comment he made today: ” good luck to all patriots of all parties except the Greens for whom we wish broken legs.”
bill, I don’t know in whose opinion Freda Brown is “highly respected”. Certainly not in mine, or anyone else who really knows her history, I suspect. She left the CPA in 1971 because she remained a hardline Stalinist and rejected the CPA’s criticisms of the Soviet Union, and specifically the invasion of Czechslovakia. She has spent the last 70 years defending Stalin and denying his crimes. If she was a diehard Nazi who denied the Holocaust you wouldn’t call her “highly respected,” yet her position is exactly analogous. Far too many people on the left STILL make apologies for Stalinism and old Stalinists like Brown.
“I guess the Lib spin will be that they have at least cut the margin in Miranda, Camden, Menai, Port Stephens and a few Central Coast seats to under 5%, which is gettable for 2011.”
So is Marcus writing for Debnam?
Is “5 seats under 5% margin” – when next time you need at least 8 for a moral victory and 12 for a real victory – not a pretty weak peg to hang ones hat on?
“first swing since 1988″ was a bit better, but only in a pathetic way…
Thats the thing in the last SA election where i had no no booth coverage my vote dropped by 2 % . . HTV cards can be worth up to 3% here
A Democrat win would indeed be an outstanding result for them.
Does anyone have a link to preference counts in the LC?
Stalin and Hitler where dictators. theres no refuting that. ps i am of Jewish background
Adam what union are you affiliated with?
Hmm,
Gratified by 53-47 (as predicted by moi) but thought they would do slightly better in terms of seats (1 – 3 more but then agan some were out by less than 1%)
Must hurt for the Libs to miss out on Miranda and Menai, will be very interesting what Morris does now he has 4 years. I suspect the swing/seats will be irrelevant if the Libs manage to stay united as it will be there time in 2011.
I suspect if the economy tanks (and therefore GST receipts drop) a lot of State governments will be screaming. I hope Iemma adopts a Keatingesque view of the world and decides to do some worthwhile things with the time he has got (although I doubt it) – after all he will have had 5 years as Premier and a pension to boot – he has a wonderful opportunity given to few people and after all what is the point of Government if you dont actually do something with it – amalgamate local councils, privatisation of electricity, build a truly multi-hub rail system, congestion charging in the Sydney CBD etc etc
Then you will like to know that Freda and Co also spent years denying Soviet anti-semitism. Since the reforming CPA leaders Aarons and Taft were both Jewish this was a big issue in the CPA split of 1971.
Just a thought on Lake Macquarie.
The electorate contains Cooranbong, the headquarters of the Seven Day Adventists. It is a ghost town on Saturdays.
My understanding is that SDAs vote but not on Saturdays- i.e. they postal vote. I also understand they vote strongly conservatively (the legendary Michael Chamberlain was the Liberal candidate in Lake Macquarie in 2003).
The point being that Hunter’s advantage as an incumbent in postal votes may not be so strong and it may be enough to tip the seat to Piper. This is all speculation and I can’t see a trend in the 2003 election – does anyone know
Yes but its history now. All i want is the ALP to move back to the left a bit and forge better ties with the Greens.
OC,
Lake Macquarie 2003 – postal votes went 55.11% ALP, 34.48% Lib.
2003 & 1999 results (at booth level) are on the EC website.
when i was growing up the ALP seemed to me to be alive and ever issue they tackled was exciting
FFS! The OC is nowhere near any of the action.
Cooranbong’s not much better the other six days of the week.
Thanks Barry and thanks William for a great sute.
William said:I got a bit cranky earlier on at the NSWEC for what I falsely diagnosed as a slowly updating XML feed and a “virtual tally room” that did not provide booth results. It turns out there were booth results, but to get them you had to click on a link identified as “Election Night”. Why? As for the XML feed issue, this turned out to be limited to one page on the ABC website. So qualified apologies are in order.
The XML feed on the ftp site worked well, except for the files with the booth data (”EMA”). Here there was a distinct difference between the trials and the real results, inasmuch as before a particular booth had reported in tonight, it appeared in the feed without the candidates’ names. I guess no-one else was using this data, but it sure threw my parser into a loop.
In the dreaded seat of Manly, TCP votes were delayed until about 10pm. The reason probably doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that some ROs decided to have a cup of tea and cake after they closed the doors and before they started counting. Oncxe all the TCP was in, by about 10:30, Baird is ahead 53:47. Absentees will pull him back, but it won’t be enough.
Sorry William, but it looks like the Fishers and Shooters and not the Dems will win in the LC. Poor old Arthur.
“looks like the Fishers and Shooters and not the Dems will win in the LC”
I think all three can win at once. The threat to the Dems is from AAFI.
Bill,
In 30 plus votes in the Victorian Legislative Council, the Greens have not voted with Labor once. The DLP has done so five times. To put it another way, the Greens have voted with the DLP far more than they have with the ALP. I’m not saying that the Greens were wrong in every vote as several of them are accountability votes, and I expect the Legislative Council to put pressure on the government. But you can see that there is no natural affinity between the Alp and the Greens.
Nor do I think the ALP’s going “left†is such a good idea, though on some things like PPPs, I would agree with you.
As Adam implies, there’s democracy and there’s dictatorship, and the communist dictatorships, whether Stalin’s, Mao’s or Castro’s, deserve not one second’s respect or excuse. The same goes for neo/quasi/ex-Marxists like the scum nutcase Mugabe.
Oakeshott country,
The SDA delegates were certainly voting on a Saturday at the ALP conference.
I’ll let you get back to the NSW election, which is not really good news for John Howard.
I think the ‘SDA’ that OC was referring to were Seventh-Day Adventists, not the Shoppies Union, Chris.
FFS!: The OC has no idea about anything in Piper Country.
The mean notional ALP TPP in the seats where they are one of the two, seems to be about 54.5%
This would be about 1.5% less than what the polls were finally pointing at this morning.
I think people have always overplayed the so called relationship between the Greens and the ALP, I feel this in part is because the media tends to want to simplify the ways of Politics.
The Greens are to the ALP what the Nats are to the Liberals
ABC2 coverage finished WAY too ealry at 9.30 WA time which means that we never got to see the concession and victory speeches, I don’t know why the ABC didn’t just run the whole coverage live in every state and finish the coverage when the NSW local coverage concluded.
Looking at this result for Federal implications.
This result is somewhat like the last Victorian Election both had nice swings to the Liberals, but failure to make gains in a climate of post I.R Laws, while Lemma is considered worst than Bracks the result for the ALP was better than the one obtained in Victoria which is interesting.
Lib/Nats made 7 gains in Victoria and a swing of 3% with much bigger swings in safe seats,
NSW Lib/Nats made 3 or 4 gains and a smaller swing, considering the Liberals won the Victorian campaign, and the Lemma Government are seen as a joke and this is Howards heartland with the near failure of a high profile Howard person in Pru Groward.
Geoff, the NSWEC has the Democrats on 40,626 and the Fishing Party on 38,074. Why would the Fishing Party be more likely to win?
Me writing for Debnam? Was the “we got a good swing in key seats that gives us a chance for next time” spiel not obvious?
Thanks, Charlie. I should have realised which group was meant from the statement that they vote strongly conservatively.
We don’t hear the name Bernie Taft often enough in election savant circles. Props to Adam.
One thing I’ve been meaning to ask you AC, is it true that Terry Lane once ran for ALP preselection.
Couldn’t add much tonight that hadn’t already been said except for some idle gossip, but again congratulations to William for his dilgence and attention to detail, to the above election savants and above all else to life-long Labor Right hack made good, Morris Iemma. Now like that other leader of Italian heritage, his priority must be to get the trains on time. Perhaps Mussolini’s methods might be an option.
And the chap pointing out the Vic Greens voting record is spot on, they are voting with the Libs very solidly, not just more than the DLP but more than sometime Coalition partners, in the National Party.
Click the link to download John Lenders’ (the patron ministerial saint of election savants btw) spreadsheet showing their voting record
http://www.apachost.com/Downloads/Legislative%20Council%20Divisions%20Chart.xls
As William Bowe says – if Dems are ahead of the Fishing party as group votes, won’t they get up. I would have guessed the dems would do better below the line.
The ABC website is giving Lake Macquarie definitely to the independent. OC you seem to have good local knowledge – do you confirm this?
Adam,
EC website has result after Notional distribution of preferences as:
HUnter (ALP) 14,799
Piper (IND) 14,641
This is all booths counted but no absentee, postals, pre-poll, section etc.
You’d have to vote for a man whose drink is a schooie of black.
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/03/24/philkoperbergbeer_wideweb__470×306,2.jpg
Someone farted…
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/03/24/prugoward_wideweb__470×311,0.jpg
I apologise but those links get a 404…
Try the articles to see the images
PK: http://preview.tinyurl.com/22w4ee
PG: http://tinyurl.com/2bqu7o
Besides the bleeding obvious that this was not a good result for the libs a few observations on the results to hand:
1. The North Coast seats all moved away the ALP (Myall Lakes excepted) with an average swing across the region of about 5% and provided in Tweed one of the few gains – was there any issue that provided what was a fairly large swing? Oakeshott your insights would be appreciated.
2. If the swings are compared between the outer west and south west of Sydney with the Central Coast – similar sorts of demographics, electoral Howardlands at fed level and where similar issues would resonate (transport ALP-, workchoices ALP+), the swings were low in W and SW Syd but noticeably better on the CC. Would this mean that the libs are seemingly more secure in Robertson and maybe Dobell than they would be in Macarthur and Lindsay?
3. The Sutherland Shire noticeably moved to the Libs though not by enough to deliver Miranda and Menai. A reaction by the ‘white’ Shire to post Cronulla disturbances?
4. The ALP did very poorly vis a vis the Greens in the safe liberal seats – the Greens outpolling Labor in Vaucluse and North Shore and coming close in Davidson and Ku Ring Gai – a new trend perhaps?
I’ve just liberated eight comments from moderation – sorry for the delay.
Penrith is interesting, I heard someone say Jackie Kelly took a high profile during the campaign.
Considering the nature of the campaign I can’t really read a federal message, while on Federal Politics I see the latest Morgan Poll has a sight swing back towards the Liberals, but still a massive lead for the ALP 58-42
Andrew, sorry I missed your earlier question.
Terry Lane sought ALP preselection for LaTrobe in 1980. It was something of an issue at the time because he was leading ABC Radio presnter at the time – I can’t remember if he was the Jon Faine or the Virginia Trioli of his day. Anyway he was beaten by Peter Milton, who went to defeat Marshall Baillieu (Ted’s uncle) for the seat.
blackburnpseph,
I grew up on the Northern Rivers & usually read the local papers online, so I hope you don’t mind me commenting on North Coast results.
1. Ballina – Greens polled 20% but didn’t direct preferences to ALP, so many votes exhausted.
2. Lismore – a 1.2% to Nats on 2PP. Last time there was a sitting ALP member in the areas added to the Northern end of the electorate.
3. Clarence – ALP didn’t put much money into the campaign. In 2003, ALP promised a new bridge in Grafton but in was put on hold, so there was a big swing in Grafton. Hospitals were also a big issue – A. Stoner promised a new hospital for almost every town in NSW if a coaltion Govt was elected. Cansdell has been tough on native flora and fauna during his first term – goes down well in this redneck electorate.
4. Coffs Harbour – I suspect that ALP tried to minimse their vote to finish behind Rhoades the independent. My perception is that Rhoades had a problem being Mayor and candidate at the same time. There was an issue before CH council about highrise development. The council was taking public submissions, so the mayor couldn’t express his opinion on the issue while the submission process was open. So Nats decided to oppose Highrise and claimed Rhoades was in favour. Pacific Hwy may also have been an issue even though Fraser was in Parliament for 5 yrs while Nats held roads portfolio in coalition Govt – he did nothing in this time.
5. Oxley is too far south for me to comment.
6. Tweed – a suprise result for me. Nats claim that it was cancellation of train service from Casino to Murwillumbah (train was replaced by coach from Casino to Tweed Heads). I doubt that, as Lismore didn’t swing to any great degree and airline prices are now so cheap that a 1hr flight from Coolangatta airport to Sydney is cheaper than a 15+ hour train ride. I suspect the main reason for the swing was demographic changes – new arrivals from Sydney expecting the facilities of a city of 4million in a town of 50,000. THe new arrivals wouldn’t be aware of how much things had improved in the last 10 years.
Also, in Tweed, Ballina & Coffs Harbour the Nats suddenly became environmently friendly. Even though in other parts of the state they were advocating grazing in National Parks and other similar policies.
With the Leg Council votes, does anyone have even a vague idea of how many of the “other” are informal and how many below the line.
If they’re mostly informal then the ALP and Lib proportions will rise as you take these out. If they’re mostly below the line ALP and Lib will do fairly badly here.
If it’s mostly informals I make the outcome ALP 9, Libs 7, Greens 2, CDP 1, Shooters 1, last one fought out between Libs, Dems, AAFI and Fishing. Libs and Dems to lead on primaries, but maybe some preference interchange between AAFI and Fishing Party (both right-wing and next to each other on ballot).
On the other hand, if there are a lot of below the lines I would expect the Dems to benefit and they would take that spot, and there is a chance the ALP will not get the ninth, leaving the AAFI and Fishing to fight that out.
Just a few quick comments:
1. George wins the award for the silliest comment of the night in calling a coalition win in 2011 “near inevitable”. Seemingly because they failed to take anywhere near the number of seats they needed, and in fact fewer than at least 50% of pundits predicted, but– hurrah!– they reduced the margin in a lot of seats that they lost.
2. Mea maxima culpa to ‘Dave’ (earlier commenter): his prediction of the ALP losing 11 seats was a little silly, but I especially mocked his prediction that the ALP would go down in Lake Macquarie. On the basis of no more than the fact that Centrebet couldn’t be bothered running a book on it. And it turned out to be one of the few that the ALP has (probably) lost.
3. The fact that ACE (Democrats) is in with a show at all is a minor miracle. Let alone him actually winning. My faith in stuff is restored. If he does, people can stop speculating, and confidently forecast the death of the parliamentary Democrats as occurring on a particular Saturday in late March 2015.
Blackburnpseph re the north coast.
As I said in one of the earlier discussions, there is now virtually no Labor infrastructure on the coast. This is the result of targeting marginal seats in the city and expecting independents to do Labor’s work in the country. For this policy to work Labor must run dead and this is the message we get from Sussex st.
It saddens me to say that this deadness extends to policy concerns as well – failure to restore the Murwillambah railway particularly when Qld is building a railway to the border and the Grafton Bridge are prime examples. Even good actions of the government e.g. rescuing Port Mac Base Hospital from private ownership get attributed to independents. This leaves very little room for Labor
The demographic changes that Labor should be taking advantage of are being wasted. Where Labor had 3 seats two elections ago (Tweed, Clarence and Port Stephens) – they are in a good position to have none this year.
The small swing in Myall Lakes was due to 2 strong independents in 2003 being replaced by the Mayor of Taree – whose qualifications for election are much more limited and the thinking protest voter therefore going to Labor. A very prominent GP who had been a Labor candidate on a number of occassions, died suddenly last night and the news went around Taree within hours – maybe there was a small sympathy vote.
Lake Macquarie- In 2003 Labor’s postal votes were about 10% less than the booth votes – this may be due to the Cooranbong branch of the SDA as suggested above. If this reoccurs this year Jeff Hunter is a goner
Simon, 8 years is a very long time in politics and anything could happen between now and then. I am hoping that ACE (Democrats) gets up. There is a good chance of the Democrats electing a Senator in either SA and QLD so don’t write them off yet.
Also 2010 SA election could be a comeback election for the Democrats in their homeland state as the Rann Government gets more and more arrogant with each passing day.
An ACE victory (if it happens) will be a turning point for the Democrats. He will be their first MP elected since 2002 for the Democrats.
My mistake it is actually the pre-poll that SDAs use. In 2003 Michael Chamberlain got 54% of these compared tp 30% of booth votes. The figures for Hunter were 36% and 55%. These are not in tonight’s figures and I think Lake Macquarie is the second Labor seat to fall – a big surprise to me.
Looking at 2003 the “other” vote in LC was 3/4 informal, 1/4 below the line.
On this basis Labor should manage 9 (although they will probably go down a little on absentees/postals/prepolls). I’d say the Dems probably lead the Libs and AAFI/Fishing by a whisker, but if the 3:1 ratio of informals to btl is right this is going down to the line – hope the Dems have some good scrutineers. If not I hope the NSW Greens do the right thing and lend them some (although having been too exhausted to scrutineer in Vic for the first week after the election that may be a big ask).
I agree with Max that if ACE can scrape in it actually might trigger a revival in the Democrats, but not in the way he suggests – I will post here or on Crikey about this at some point, but want to mull over my thoughts first because it’s a hypothesis likely to be laughed at if I don’t articulate it well (or perhaps even if I do).
Just looking at Antony’s guide – he is already aware of the heavy non-labor votes from Cooranbong in pre-poll
William, just to change the subject for a minute from the results (I see you HATE that!)
First, great coverage.
Your comment re flicking between two channels. When I worked at the Liberal opposition office here in Tas, we had several TVs set up next to each other. When the 6.00pm news came on, we used to watch both networks together. Both sight and sound.
Takes some getting used to, but does work. If had been able to do that, with some snappy use of the remote volumes, you might have found tracking both a bit a bit easier. Or it might have driven you mad. We only did it for 15 minutes of news; five hours might be a different thing.
My new upper house calculations that don’t use the SEO %s and instead remove the ‘Other’ votes:
Immediately:
Elected: Coalition 7 Seats
Elected: The Greens 1 Seats
Elected: Labor 8 Seats
5 Remain to be filled.
Elected: CDP with 4.39 Pct
Elected: The Greens with 3.62 Pct
Elected: Labor with 3.48 Pct
Elected: Shooters Party with 2.8 Pct
Elected: Coalition with 1.9 Pct
——————————
1.69 Democrats
1.56 AAFI
1.53 The Fishing Party
With Labor running dead in areas where independents are strong or have been éncouraged’ – New England at Fed, Northern Tablelands at State, or the Northern beaches – or the areas where the greens may overtake the ALP – lower North Shore – Is there not the risk that the ALP may actually disadvantage themsleves at statewide elections – LC or senate – because they cannot put people on the ground – leaving holes in HTV coverage etc?Surely in these areas the local ALP membership must get very disocuraged.
And before anyone says it, the ALP appear to have run down their organisation and are getting much lower votes than the Libs do in inner Sydney or Western Suburbs ALP strongholds.
Arghh all my clocks and computers have different times.
What the latest couple of state elections have showed us that governments dont have to do anything to win. Broken promises dis interested MPs seems the go around Australia and it is saddening that this is from the ALP. Could it be the weakness of the Libs in the States is due to the concentration of resources etc Federally. Will The federal ALP follow suit if it wins office and weaken the state governments?
What pressures are put on major parties to make them work for the people?
Bill,
Some people think federal government is more important than state and so the political talent goes there. I don’t agree with the first part of this and am not sure of the second. The Liberals did not get far in the Victorian election because they had a poor campaign. They said Labor had done nothing, easily refuted by the huge list of things Labor has actually done. They rightly attacked Labor over its broken promise on the Scoresby Freeway, then said they would drop tolls, then said they would have half-tolls for a few years and then said they would keep tolls. They go on about high taxes when state taxes have fallen from 5.8 per cent of GSP to 4.5 Per cent of GSP. They also carry the baggage of the last time they vandalised the state. I think this last point will be irrelevant by 2010.
They are already making similar mistakes in their federal campaign; e.g., saying Labor has no policies when Kevin Rudd has one with your breakfast cereal every morning.
blackburnpseph,
I agree entirely. It is a very short sighted policy. I expect it will only change when the LC/Senate vote appreciably declines of when a number of candidates get below the 4% threshold to attract election funding. It will be interesting to see the ALPs vote on a district level in the areas you name.
The biggest joke I’ve heard by some reporters in relation to the result of this election is that it will put a smile on John Howard’s face because it shows people in NSW prefer to vote ALP in the state and conservative federally. They use history as a guide. Unfortunately they leave out of that historical perspective the years between 1983 and 1988 where Labor governed both federally and in NSW. So much for that argument.
Bill,
The pressure put on major parties is the possibility of their losing votes. In the end, it is very simple. People get what they vote for. If they think they don’t they can vote for someone else or stand themselves.
Of course the NSW people had two elections to throw federal Labor out during that time (1984 and 1987) and didn’t.
Thats true Chris thats why i am standing myself and will keep doing that ( if i win pre selection for future elections) until i win! haha
Well, the return of another Labor government means that Howard can go on blaming “the states” for everything, which he couldn’t do if there was even one Liberal premier. Also he can run a scare campaign in October about “coast-to-coast Labor dominance”, which might have some effect in the Howard-bogans seats.
But all this offset by what seems to me clear evidence that the IR laws are dragging the Coalition to its doom at both state and federal level. People are willing to vote for a Labor government which can’t even make the trains run on time rather than for an opposition which wants to hand the state IR laws to Canberra. This may have been a symbolic question but it was a very potent symbol.
What i find sad is that the big issue worldwide is “can’t even make the trains run on time” Governments can fall on an issue of little importance compared to Global Warming, IR and Social Justice.
Adam,
What a load of bollocks you talk about IR, a big part of why Labor has lost the last 2 Federal elections is because LaborSupporters like you talk to other Labor supporters and find themselves in violent agreement on why the Rodent is so bad.
Ultimately its the bogan vote as you put it that counts and I think thats up in the air.
Now now Edward if you misbehave I will go and find all your predictions from last week about sweeping Liberal gains and last-minute swings etc etc.
On the expected LC results.
It seems like it might be a repeat of last election except the Coalition has pulled one seat off Labor.
So does the net effect mean that either The Greens or a combination of Shooters and Christian Democrats are in the “Balance of Power”?
Realistically this gives Labor in NSW 3 choices of LC support for legislation if it wanted to do something. Coalition, Greens or Christian/Shooters.
I don’t know why I find the notion of Christian-Shooters so amusing, maybe its the imminence of Easter.
I’m not sure there is a lot of common ground between the Christian Democrats and the Shooters Party, though. At least not anything that would not be common between the Liberals and the Greens.
smiles
Disasterboy
The power of the HtV
In some places, a how-to-vote card can really swing things. In Manly Barr (IND, Assembly) was persuaded to issue a HtV which recommended a Green vote in the LC. State-wide GRN in the LC was about 8.9%; in Manly, the LA GRN vote was abouut the same- 9.3%. But in the LC, the GRN vote in Manly averaged 20.2% across the booths and was as high as 32%.
Subtracting the GRN base vote of about 9%, it would seem that about one-third of Barr’s voters followed his HTV for the LC, even though it was in rather small print at the foot of his HtV.
Personally, I hope the conservatives keep on saying IR is not having any effect on their election chances. In that way they will go to the Federal election with it intact and suffer the consequences. I agree with Adam on this.
Sorry about the formatting, but below is a summary of votes, %ages, quotas, “won on primaries” and likely “won on remainders” for the LC. You can cut and paste into a Word table to get a viewable layout.
The numbers agree with The Speaker’s assessment above
Group Party name # Candidates Votes %AGE Quotas First pref seats Remainder to be filled Rank of remainder Another Seat? Total Seats Quota 133895
Total 2945676 22.000 16 5 5 21
GROUP A 16 18971 0.64% 0.142 0 0.142 12 0 0
GROUP B THE FISHING PARTY 20 44938 1.53% 0.336 0 0.336 8 0 0
GROUP C AUSTRALIANS AGAINST FURTHER IMMIGRATION 15 45898 1.56% 0.343 0 0.343 7 0 0
GROUP D 15 0 0.00% 0.000 0 0.000 20 0 0
GROUP E LIBERAL / NATIONALS 15 992994 33.71% 7.416 7 0.416 5 1 8
GROUP F 21 17891 0.61% 0.134 0 0.134 13 0 0
GROUP G AUSTRALIAN DEMOCRATS 16 49660 1.69% 0.371 0 0.371 6 0 0
GROUP H 15 3036 0.10% 0.023 0 0.023 18 0 0
GROUP I THE GREENS 21 263871 8.96% 1.971 1 0.971 1 1 2
GROUP J UNITY PARTY 18 37162 1.26% 0.278 0 0.278 9 0 0
GROUP K CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (FRED NILE GROUP) 21 129378 4.39% 0.966 0 0.966 2 1 1
GROUP L RESTORE THE WORKERS’ RIGHTS PARTY 18 27385 0.93% 0.205 0 0.205 10 0 0
GROUP M 15 3817 0.13% 0.029 0 0.029 17 0 0
GROUP N THE SHOOTERS PARTY 19 82351 2.80% 0.615 0 0.615 4 1 1
GROUP O LABOR 18 1173690 39.84% 8.766 8 0.766 3 1 9
GROUP P 15 19043 0.65% 0.142 0 0.142 11 0 0
GROUP Q SOCIALIST ALLIANCE 16 12394 0.42% 0.093 0 0.093 14 0 0
GROUP R SAVE OUR SUBURBS 17 9002 0.31% 0.067 0 0.067 16 0 0
GROUP S HUMAN RIGHTS PARTY 15 11743 0.40% 0.088 0 0.088 15 0 0
UNG 7 2452 0.08% 0.018 0 0.018 19 0 0
The Poll Bludger 250307 3
(NSW election live)
Gary,
I have been watching Insiders. Piers Ackermann referred to Greg Combet as a “union hackâ€. Given his articulate and reasonable line, he is as far from a hack as PA is from an unbiased journalist. The Liberals will run the anti-union line, but I don’t think it will bite at all.
In the table I just posted (which you can’t see, because William needs to moderate it), the %age votes are based on all votes except “Other including informal”. Stephen asked earlier about how much of this was “Informal”, I would suspect nearly all. If you view the VTR, the %ages given on the front page are %ages of the total vote, not %ages of the “Formal”. Given that there appear to be about a quarter of a million informals, everybodys’ %ages are dragged down somewhat on the VTR
Adam,
IMHO people don’t care if trains don’t run on time. They only care if the train they want to catch doesn’t run on time.
Adam,
My predictions were better than yours,
I think you’ll find I said 53-47 and 4-6 seats, so yes I was out but considering the closeness of Port Stephens and Miranda I think it was a reasonable prediciton on my part as it may still be 4 seats.
My prediction for Epping was right: Greg Smith retained the seat for the Liberals, with roughly the same margin as last time.
A big swing to the Liberals in Hornsby – presumably because Judy Hopwood is seen to be a hardworking local member.
Undoutably, WorkChoices was an issue in this election – the Conservatives are kidding themseves!
William, thanks for another informative election coverage!
This site and all the regulars here keep me coming back for more!
Any idea how postals and prepolls will go in Miranda? Barry Collier is far from safe!
In Queensland there are no bogans.
We call them Bevans.
Chris, I agree. This idea that everyone will be anti union enough to risk their and their children’s conditions and wages at the next election is fanciful. In fact I believe these IR laws are showing people why unions are relevant, even though many people choose not to be part of one. The fact is the government has gone too far and has frightened the horses. Not a wise political move. But let’s not try and wake them up to this shall we.
I love the line the federal government is pushing now after the NSW election. They claim Labor’s vote in the last week of the campaign dropped away once Labor’s IR ads kicked in over that week. There are so many holes in that argument. The fact that the government was returned with little damage speaks volumes for the campaign on IR.
Edward how did your theory stand up re Workchoices and western Sydney seats such as Camden and Wollondilly? I ask not as a smart alec comment but as one who is not familiar with the Sydney area at all.
GB,
Not sure. But I suspect the breakdown of the votes in those 2 seats will be keenly broken down in days to come.
I guess its the perennial problem of identifying why a swing occurred? Voters still dont have to give reasons for their vote.
None of the newspaper websites appear to have a call of the board – does anyone know where to find a full list of what’s won/lost/changed hands? Be great if a link could be posted in the main part of this blog.
If you look at broad aggregations across seats you may find the following:
The ALP vote held enough in traditional ALP areas to keep many Marginal seats in their hands (especially those with polar-LIB/ALP splits).
The Liberals polled strongly everywhere in northern Sydney, including seats in the Hills District, Epping, Ryde (well an improvement), Hornsby, Lane Cove, the Beaches, and the Entire North Shore.
In some of these seats the ALP has lost significant vote share for this election, and possibly for the term of this government.
The Liberals did not win any seats in the Howard Battler zones, partly because of good candidate selection by the ALP, and partly because of a poor understanding of these areas by existing Liberal MPs who live mainly in Northern Sydney.
Apart from that, the National Party made big gains (unexpectedly for Sydney people) against the ALP in the country, while it seems more Independants (and Greens) than ever are in the final 2PP counts.
Unfortunately for the Liberal party, this did not lead to many seat gains, but has them much better positioned for the next election both in terms of seats to defend and seats to win.
Better positioned, but certainly not well positioned. They will need to replicate this result with another 5% swing to force a hung parliament in 2011. They still need 8% to win government in their own right.
Toorak = Bogans
First thanks to William for his site
One thing which makes me made with Elections, if the Government suffers a swing people call it a protest, whatever happened to we don’t like the Government.
I.R was a factor, but I don’t think it hurt the Liberals as much as it will come Federal Election, by my rough guess the ALP on these results could pick up to 4 seats Edan Monaro, Lindsay, Hughes and McCarthur but would drop Richmond.
I feel the biggest factor in this result was the quality of the Two parties, which is poor at best.
The Federal Government advisors should read this blog and take notice of comments re: IR Law. They need to sell the reasons for making the changes to IR eg. helping struggling small businesses, and highlight the fact that not one nurse/teacher/policeman appears to have been sacked yet under their new regime. Small businesses are crippled by stupid State regulations.
How come I can see this so clearly, but expensive PR consultants can’t?
Meanwhile, I thought Independent Liberal Martin Levine would have done better than he did in Epping. Glad to see Rob Stokes take back Pittwater, and Judy Hopwood increase her margin from 4 to 13 per cent in Hornsby.Mrs Hopwood better watch her back though…
Not surprised the Nationals are regaining lost ground, given the drought.
bmwofoz,
The 2PP vote in Tweed was very similar to the 2PP vote in the those booths at last Federal election.
Nationals 2PP in Tweed 53.6%
Nationals 2PP for the same booths in 2004 Federal election 52.8%
bmwofoz, I stopped being worried about Richmond when it became clear that Larry Anthony would not be seeking preselection for the seat. That means that the personal vote built up by three generations of the Anthony family won’t be a factor in this election. Coupled with the renewed strength of the ALP, I don’t expect Richmond to fall to the Coalition.
PC: Levine was never going to be that effective. He had no real profile until the Hornsby Advocate and Stateline gave him one.
I am more surprised that the ALP only gained 25% of Primaries in Epping when there was supposedly a crazy fundamentalist Liberal running (though Greg Smith seems to be neither), in an area which overlaps with a seat the Prime Minister is supposedly about to lose, whereas many Liberals gained more than that in Safe ALP seats.
SkyNews Poll.
WorkChoices is having more of an effect than the economy. Let’s face it, as a neutural watcher, Howard is set to lose nearly every marginal seat in the country. It’s looking like Labor wall-to-wall and a massive Rudd victory.
Put your money on the Rodent now,
Has either major media proprietor come out and said how impressed they are with Kevin Rudd? No
IR is just like GST, Medicare Gold, Children overboard, tampa , the rusted on middle class lefty labor voters obsess about them but the great unwashed couldnt give a rats as long as the economy is ticking along
Of course IR is finally being revealed for what it is – job protection and career advancement for union officials. I guess its such a vital issue that at least 4 union secretaries have reluctantly decided to leave their unions to run for the federal poll – what a joke
I am tipping Banks to be the Greenway of 2004, anybody who thinks Hughes will go has rocks in their head.
re Casino to Murwillimah line
The issue of reopening this line is the combined responsibility of the NSW
and federal governments. The NSW government has asked for extra money from the Federal Goverment to facilitate the reopening so far the various
federal transport members Mr Truss and Mr Vaile have refused.
Maybe there needs to be a change of Federal Government with Labor MPS
for both Page & Richmond to bring about this change.
Why do folk persist in calling Pru Goward ‘high profile’?
To the .002% of us who are political wonks she is. But then primarily because some of us used to listen to Radio National, and others are lawyers. Sex Discrimination Commissioner ranks up there with Assistant Police Commissioner in the public mindframe, and she chose to be one of the quieter Commissioners in history, presumably to not offend her friendly master.
In terms of profile, Goward would rank about a half-a-McKew, and McKew about a quarter-of-a-Combet.
Ed StJohn: ‘Has either major media proprietor come out for Rudd?’
1. Read the Oz editorial from Saturday, it’s as close to an endorsement of Rudd as a News Ltd mouthpiece will ever come.
2. And expect Packer Jr to be backing him, if only for the broadband money.
Not that either have that much weight, although the Oz likes to chase bones. They are more likely to sniff the wind and follow it, than lead the trail.
Graeme,
If you recall 1996, Kezza did an interview on A Current Affair with Ray Martin extolling the virtues of the Rodent. – That’s what I mean by an endorsement or Tony Blair flying to the News Management Conference in FNQ in 1994. Those guys have real money riding on election results and are excellent at sniffing the wind.
When one of them comes out and makes a public endorsement of Rudd then you can say there is a real change in the works.
Edward StJohn Says:
Of course IR is finally being revealed for what it is – job protection and career advancement for union officials. I guess its such a vital issue that at least 4 union secretaries have reluctantly decided to leave their unions to run for the federal poll – what a joke
That is exactly how the swinging working class voters see it. The hostility the rank and file non activist union members have against the union bosses is big. People cannot believe that Doug Cameron from the AMWU is promoted by them to the hilt but a grass roots unionist who has no ambition to be a union boss has to fight to get acknowledged. The YR@W has been promoted as a anti Howard grouping yet in some of the marginals it has been totally hijacked by the ALP with a arrogance that smacks of Howardism. I have been involved in the YR@W and its predecessor here in Kingston for over 18 months. Thank god the ACTU organizer and The Fire Fighters union see the need to promote the Greens and others against neo conservatism. It would be interesting if i was a union boss running for the Greens how the Union hierarchy and ALP would react. I have the feeling that i am now being ignored by some union members as being too, how should i put it, non towing the ALP Union boss line. What they dont understand is that AMWU and other left union members are watching to see how they treat one of their own, someone who is known around the traps. The Union movement has a chance to become strong again or give it self up to the ever right moving ALP. I believe that the workers will suffer under Labor but by stealth and thats the message i am getting from members. Howards on the nose but it more to do with a tired government and arrogance rather than any real issue. I dont think we have ever had a opposition that is so similar to the Government ever and the same is happening in the States. Theres seems little choice anymore. I will be expecting a huge change for the workers when the ALP win as we have suffered enough
Yes, Ed, my memory is that long – not least as it was amusing at the time to realise how deluded Keating, Richo et al had been assuming Packer was a Labor ‘mate’.
Do you think it matters much who the moguls back, except to reveal their tip for who they think will win and who they think they can best cut a deal with on media law?
Ch 9, to the limited extent it does hard news/current affairs, is relatively balanced, and not agenda driven. That leaves Murdoch’s pack-dogs, the Tele and the Herald-Sun: true they’ve been faithful Howardistas, but even when bullying state govts, they’ve shown they have limited pulling power.
Here’s my assessment on the Legislative Council. Very interested to see if others agree:
The majority of the “other” votes will be informals, but 10-30% will be below the lines.
In this case the first 20 seats are clear.
On these figures the Libs lead the Democrats by about 1700 votes, with AAFi 4000 further back
Absentees/postals/prepolls will favour Libs, thus increasing their margin.
However, Dems will do better below the line than Libs (not in absolute terms, but after allowing for the Libs first seven quotas). AAFI and Fishing will do inbetween these two on btl.
Dems will pick up some preferences – Group F, Human Rights Party, Socialist Alliance. The higher of Fishing and AAFI will pick up even more (from the other one mostly). Libs will get very few – the only party likely to preference the Libs was the CDP and they won’t have anything left over when elected.
When these factors balanced out still very, very close
Does this sound right to people?
Stephen L:
You may well be right, but I don’t like it…I’m the poor bunny on the Coalition ticket thats seating blood.
Having been through a flogging at the hands of Tony Windsor at the last federal election I really didn’t need this cliffhanger to round out my political experiences.
By the way (putting aside the personal issues) this is a great site. I’ve been reading it for some time, but at least twice a day durung the election phase. Commentary has been informed and entertaining.
Trev
An early nominee for the most stupid comments made in the various media post election round ups must go to Imre Salusinszky.
No doubt to comply with the new ABC “fair and blanced” rules Salusinszky was included in the election wrap alongside our own dear Anthony. This is the only reason that I can up with as to why someone so partisan, porcine and petulant should be asked to comment on anything other than the weather but that is what we are now reduced to in the new Howard Australia.
Anyway, I digress. Towards the end of the segment Salusinszky opined that the SEC should take action to ensure that their should be no delays in the counting of postal and absent votes in the few remaining seats in doubt since this was unfair to the Liberal candidates who would not know their fate until all the postals had been counted. As someone who is paid to comment on NSW state politics you would think tha the would know that the speed of counting postal and absent votes is governed entirely by legislation and regulations made by parliament and entirely outside the control of the SEC.
I thouhgt he he looked a dill when he was a commentator on the amazingly behind the curve Sky election coverage but this confirms it.
ESJ, 2004 was the high water mark for the coalition in Banks. A favourable redistribution in the interim means Daryl Melham will be happily serving another 3 years in Canberra.
The Coalition will have a hard enough time defending its marginals to pour money into a race it can’t win.
bill well – what are you on about with doug cameron and the AMWU membership sitting back and waiting to see what happens? what happens with what?
The membership that i am involved in will be watching to see how the AMWU bosses treat me as a candidate compared to cameron
There are demographic shifts occuring in Banks – margin has gone down consistently since 1993.
BW is spot on – there is no internal democracy left in trade unions. It is the age of the crank n’vile for many union bosses.
The swings in Banks over the last decade-and-a-half have largely mirrored those of the nation. That’s not evidence of “demographic shifts”.
The generally strong swings to the Liberals in their own marginal and vaguely-marginal seats mirrors quite closely what happened in Victoria. In Victoria’s case the Liberals put a lot of resources (more than was sensible) into defending their own seats, and from what I’m seeing from a distance on this site it sounds like they were doing much the same in at least some parts of NSW.
Gee Andrew,
could it be that the Greens are pushing for an inquiry about the dodgy dealings of the ALP in relation to Gaming licenses?
reading into where the Greens voted against the ALP shows the Greens are actually dong the job of the house of review. Exactly what Labor wanted. Or have they changed their mind, if the reviews are of the ALP practices?
DW,
Banks is GONE, compare the swing in Banks to Barton in the last decade and you will see my point in spades. Something is rotten in Banks for Labor.
bill weller – where is that you are supposedly running and why are union bosses giving you a hard time?
I am the Green candidate for Kingston SA. The union bosses are not giving me a hard time, what members are watching is if i will get a good deal of promotion as people like Cameron will. ( i am just a shop delegate)
Some results from the 2004 election:
Barton swung to Labor by 1.5%
Banks swung to the Libs by 1.8%
The nation swung to the Libs by 1.8%
So Banks swung uniformly with the nation. The fact that Barton might be trending Labor is neither here nor there.
Given that the estimated new margin in Banks is 3.2%, the Coalition would require a national 2PP result of 56% to gain the seat should it once again swing uniformly with the nation.
Thus you’re assertion that Banks is “gone” is at best brave, and at worst pig ignorant.
“Me writing for Debnam? Was the “we got a good swing in key seats that gives us a chance for next time†spiel not obvious?”
Yes, but the precise formulation of it as “5 seats under 5%” slightly less so, so a reasonable tip.
Anyway, no offence intended
Bill you are running for the Greens?Why would they promote you when they desperately want the ALP to win? Why would they promote a Green only to potentially lose the House by 1 seat?
Barry. The union should support ALL its members. The Greens policy on IR is far superior to that of the ALP.All of the Greens policies are closer to AMWU policies then that of the ALP. My promotion will not loose the ALP the seat but it will put the ALP on notice that is must consider AMWU ideals as well as the ALPs candidates unions ideals. I dont know if there ever been two Unionist from two different parties running in the Federal election. ( I think there has been Independents vs ALP unionists and maybe DLP vs ALP) Adam and others on here with there wealth of info should be able to tell us
Bill,
The VSTA never supported me in any election I contested despite my being a member. It doesn’t work like that. A few AMWU members will no doubt support you, but your union is affiliated with the ALP. Many DLP candidates were unionists but they would not have got any support from their unions, unless they were in the FCU or the ATU.
I think if a member of a Union runs for parliament and their platform is pro union then they should be supported be they Greens, Democrat, DLP or ALP to not shows a total disregard of a members importance and goes against Union principles.