By popular demand, an exciting new episode of Idle Speculation. You will have to make your own conversation starters – my focus has been elsewhere. I’m sure you’ll manage.
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Idle speculation: late March edition
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250 Comments
What Howard needs is a small war, a la Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands. That war certainly revived Thatchers career!
Maybe something in August/September.
Zimbabwe could be good. It wouldn’t be hard to overrun Mugabe, and everyone agrees he should go.
Parachute troops in to take a small airfield in a corner of the country. Then fly men and equipment in.
Mugabe would proably flee in no time and Howard would be the hero!
Not sure if you’ve noticed Guru, but Howard has already got a few wars going – Iraq and Afghanistan most obviously, though he’s also been keen to use our khaki boys and girls in East Timor and the Solomons. Not sure it’s doing him any good.
However, an invasion of Zimbabwe would probably appeal to Howard, as he could then ensure September’s cricket tour goes ahead.
Okey dokey, Peter Andren is making an announcement on Thursday. Any books open on what it will be? Macquarie or Calare? Calare or Macquarie?
Calare!
I’m going to have a stab and say Calare as well. He’ll get better media coverage there, whereas in Macquarie he’ll get swallowed up by the Sydney coverage. He’ll also be up against a locally popular candidate Bob Debus (so rumour has it) in Macquarie, so Calare seems a better bet for Andren.
I’m also tipping Calare.
But a strong showing (12%) by a little-known local independent in the Blue Mountains on Saturday might change his mind?
The point is that if he runs in Calare he will knock out a Nat and bring closer the possibility of himself and other indies having the balance of power. If he runs in Macquarie he helps the government and does nothing to help himself. Also I am not quite as certain as I was a few months ago that he would win Macquarie – if the Rudd juggernaut takes off he might get trampled in the rush. So my bet is on Calare..
(thinks: do juggernauts “take off”? Perhaps not)
No: a juggernaut is a larged wheeled chariot pulled through the streets during Hindu festivals. People get crushed beneath them, but they don’t take off
Juggernauts do not normally take off, but it appears that Rudd can do anything….
Is there any reason in principle why a jet engine could not be attached to a juggernaut? Or would it then cease to be a juggernaut?
Its Calare for me too.
I seem to remember Andren saying around the time of the redistribution that he would rather stay in Calare and show he could still win that larger seat.
That would defeat one of the purposes of the juggernaut for Hindus, which is to move towards nirvana by being meritoriously crushed beneath its wheels.
Well, here’s hoping that Howard reaches Nirvana this year….
Does Saturday’s poll tell us anything about Labor’s prospects in seats like Lindsay, Dobell and Eden-Monaro, which are must-wins for Labor?
Holding Monaro was a plus, though rumour had it that Steve Whan would be the ALP candidate for Eden-Monaro if he’d lost, so maybe it was a mixed blessing to hold on to it. An encouraging swing in Penrith, but Jackie Kelly is (inexplicably) popular, so it might take more than that to take Lindsay. Some evidence that WorkNoChoices is biting here, as it seems to be on the Central Coast, which can only help the ALP, as can Howard’s refusal to see anything wrong with his legislative baby (one year old today).
I think that if the Ruddslide really happens in Queensland, plus we win three in SA, two in Tas, and don’t lose any in WA, four in NSW (those three plus Parramatta) might almost get us there. The next level (Page, Robertson, Paterson) look much harder. (I am not counting Wentworth or Bennelong.)
I understood that the swing in Penrith was because our new candidate there made such a bad impression last time (and from what I saw on TV on Saturday night I can see why), and this was just a correction.
Your call of the board doesn’t have Labor regaining any in WA … is this feeling or polling and evidence based?
Adam is big on the idea that the Burke affair will damage Labor in WA. As an almost life-long resident of the State of the Excitement, I believe he is mistaken.
I would be surprised if Peter Andren chose to run in Calare. It is a huge if not enormous seat with very little commonality and Orange (where he is best known) is at the very South Eastern corner of it. Bathurst and Lithgow (where he is also well known are in the seat of Macquarie).
On the weekend in the state seat of Orange the local National Party member beat the Mayor of Orange (John Davis) standing as an independent with the preferences of both ALP and the Greens. Part of the reason that the independent did not succeed was because he was not known well in Wellington and Mudgee and was seen to be too Orange centric.
I think it would be a big ask to expect the voters of Forbes, Parkes, Condobolin, Lake Cargelligo, Narromine, Nyngan, White Cliffs, Brewarrina, Cobar, Bourke, Willcannia, Hillston and Grenfell to vote other than National or ALP.
One must also remember that Andren actually lives in what will be Macquarie. But I’m still placing bets on him contesting Calare… well not literally placing bets, figure of speech and all.
Adelaide’s Sunday Mail this week had a front page story on the Labor candidate for Makin, Tony Zappia, who some years ago gave a reference which was produced in court on behalf of a bikie drug dealer. Zappia says he didn’t know the reference would be presented in court but that it was a mistake to make it. The reference did say that the drug dealer was on a rehabilitation program at Zappia’s gym. Overall, it did not seem any more than a venial sin which Kevin Rudd had forgiven. But some ALP heavies apparently believe that Zappia, the popular mayor of Salisbury, should be replaced for the fight against moneybags Liberal Bob Day.
OK, if William is right then we can expect to win 2 in WA. Add to that 3 in SA, 2 in Tas and 1 in NT. That makes 8, which is halfway. If we win 4 in NSW we will need only 4 in Qld, and I think Rudd will do better than that in Qld. But I think 4 is the minimum we need in NSW. The 2 Tas seats are by no means guaranteed, and I know nothing about Solomon.
Holy moley, does Calare really run out to Brewarrina?
PS: Lindsay could swing to Labor, if there’s a good candidate. David Bradbury has pegged Kelly back of late.
I think Mr Andren the current member for Calare. will nominate again for calare.
Whatever the boundaries he would win calare.
The westernmost point of the new Calare is on the Darling near Menindee, although it seems that the town of Menindee is in Farrer.
Of course labor will pick up at least one WA seat. Probably not Hasluck, but Stirling (two-party preferred: keenan only holds it by 2%) is almost certain to swing back to ALPs, whose candidate is a stand-up character.
Solomon is reputed to be very wise.
I have long maintained that Mr Rudd will have a much better than average swing in Qld, votes wise, but it is very hard to predict, seats wise, when such large margins currently exist.
After Bonner and Moreton we have Blair 5.7%, Herbert 6.1%, Longman 6.6%, Petrie 7.9% (all Liberal) then Flynn 7.9% and Hinkler 8.8% (both National and unlikely to swing nearly as much as Liberal seats).
Fortunatly for Mr Rudd, the Qld branch of the Liberal Party continues to tear itself apart and the headlines in today’s Courier Mail…”Libs on brink of open warfare” says it all.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,21450953-3102,00.html
Interestingly, the Liberal member for Ryan, Michael Johnson, who has a margin of 10.5% was reported a week ago as saying that his chances of re-election were being damaged by the actions of some of his federal colleagues (re allowance investigations etc) so perhaps the Libs have some private polling showing that a very big swing is on the cards?
For my personal amusement, I have run a check on this site’s most prolific commenters. Interestingly, most of the front-runners only started poking their noses in relatively recently (or perhaps the plugin only checks back so far?). Note that this is distorted a little because people don’t always enter their details the same way:
* Adam (215)
* bill weller (121)
* Edward StJohn (83)
* Hugo (69)
* oakeshott country (66)
* Chris Curtis (62)
* William Bowe (51)
* Geoff Lambert (45)
* Evan (42)
* Ben Raue (42)
* Gary Bruce (39)
* Marcus (39)
* Sacha (39)
* bmwofoz (33)
* Charlie (29)
* Jason Briggs (29)
* Barry (29)
* Antony Green (27)
* Stewart (25)
* Leopold (24)
Yep, thought so. Those were just for the past few months. Here are the all-time figures:
* adam (536)
* Melb city (392)
* William Bowe (259)
* Antony Green (252)
* Melbcity (201)
* bill weller (171)
* Sacha (162)
* Chris Curtis (139)
* Geoff Lambert (135)
* Ben Raue (131)
* David Walsh (124)
* Gary Bruce (107)
* geoff R (105)
* bmwofoz (99)
* Hugo (97)
* Evan (95)
* Edward StJohn (94)
* Ray (91)
* oakeshott country (87)
* tom (85)
Dear William,
Re your “Adam is big on the idea that the Burke affair will damage Labor in WA. As an almost life-long resident of the State of the Excitement, I believe he is mistaken”.
Is your belief based on the recent WA state (Peel) byelection, or are there are there other factors drawing you to your cocnclusion?
All this talk of Andren reminds me why the Electoral Commission is pure evil manipulated by the government of the day. Rural electorates are marginalised into irrelevancy by the politicians and alleged apolitical public servants (at the AEC) who have a great knowledge disconnect.
Effectively rendering voting in rural areas, irrelevant.
I was originally of the opinion Andren should run in Macquarie because I thought he had a better chance of winning there and a parliament with Andren or an Independent in it is better than a parliament without one. However, I believe it was Antony Green that said Andren would get more coverage in Calare than in the ignorant Sydney areas.
On the Electorate redistributions, There were plenty of public submissions that provided a more equitable distribution. Did the AEC take notice? No. So much for democracy.
It is extremely silly when you have two very small geographical electorates next to each other on the coast with similar problems. It would make more sense for it to be one electorate regardless of the number of people.
As I understand it the new electorate redistributions don’t even follow the borders of LG areas – thats pretty stupid.
Other people’s mention of the Sydney election and the Orange electorate as a comparison to Andren is poor because Andren’s time as a Prime News Reader also reached a lot of the areas that the new Calare is in. A choice between John Cobb and Peter Andren in Calare regardless of distribution should see Andren as a shoe-in.
re WA: who is standing for the ALP in Stirling that they are a ’stand-up’ character – if they win they’d be a ’sit-down’ character surely…but seriously, who is the candidate this time round? Also, I realise that Randall in Canning looks unassailable, but he was sitting on a tiny margin last time – the swing could be repeated, no? And I would have thought Hasluck would be counted a winner, given that in the last state election I noticed that the ALP got 50% primary across East Metro (ensuring the re-election of Louise Pratt, soon to be a Senator), and its only held by 2% anyway. Kalgoorlie should also be considered in the maybe category, and I would like to think that even Moore was one to watch. If a genuine swing in WA emerges it could be magnified dependent on the district.
Actually, thinking about WA, maybe Moore and Kal are a bit too much to ask…
Fargo, the Peel by-election does have quite a lot to do with it. Plus the only WA-specific poll published since the three state ministers were sacked wasn’t so bad. The saga has been off the front pages for a month now and most people’s houses are still standing. You also need to consider that the scandal cost a WA Senator and a state Liberal MP their positions on front-bench, making the whole fiasco look bipartisan. But most importantly, it has to be appreciated how poisonous Mark Latham was for Labor over here. There were swings to the Coalition in every seat in 2004, as high as 9.6 per cent in previously marginal Canning. Labor was lucky to limit its losses to two seats – another 1 per cent and it would have been four. So there is almost as much slack for Labor to pick up in WA as in Queensland.
I have become much more chatty since I ceased being a parly staffer and became a gentleman of leisure at Xmas. But I’m off to foreign parts in a couple of weeks so I’ll have less time for chatting. I’ll keep you all posted on the French presidential election. Go Sego!
Gee guys have i said that much? Have a good one Adam, maybe when you get back ill be polling second in Kingston. HaHa
Did everyone read The Australian today? The story titled ‘Rudd set for brawl with left’. by Steve Lewis. this is exactly what ive been warning my fellow members about
We had a YR@W action today outside Richardson’s office with 50 people in attendance. Small yes but the support we are getting from passing motorists is huge. Rishworth nowhere to be seen
Hello 100th post.
When discussing a Country seat like Calare its important to remember that people travel greater distance when living in the Country, therefore news travels further, Peter Andren would have a high profile across Western NSW and I feel with ALP and Green Preferences would hold the seat.
David Bradbury in Lindsay – what a fourth go? Talk about new blood !
No wonder they” blow yet another election
Stewart J…
The ALP candidate for Stirling is Peter Tinley…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Tinley
Bmwofoz has hit a century congrats
The NSW election saw strong swings to the Coalition in seats like Mulgoa (Lindsay covers it federally). The Entrance, Wyong (Dobell).
Although Monaro and Bega (Eden-Monaro) had a swing towards Labor, so did Penrith (part of Lindsay). I think Parramatta is covered by bits of Baulkham Hills at a state level which recorded a strong swing to the Libs, while Parramatta recorded a tiny swing to Labor.
Interesting enough seats the Liberals already hold and the more middle class Labor electorates recorded big swings to the Liberals. While working class seats recorded little swing to the Liberals and even swings to Labor. Work Choices at work perhaps.
You got to remember the outer suburban electorates like Dobell and Lindsay aren’t very working class anymore, they are full of para-professionals and the self employed, who see themselves as middle class.
I think come the federal election, Labor will get the biggest swings in working class electorates. While middle class electorates could go the other way or record lower swings to Labor.
Wasn’t the ALP’s primary vote in WA only about 33% in 2004? That’s unnaturally low. The ALP have good candidates in both seats – Peter Tinley in Stirling and the former member Sharryn Jackson in Hasluck – and frankly, I just can’t imagine the ALP winning without taking those two seats.
I just been revising my predictions for the federal election. I orginally predicted for a 8 seat Coalition majority. Now I am expecting a 2 seat Labor majority, if they can win both Stirling and Hasluck (Hasluck more likely), that would make it a 4 seat majority. Well I am predicting a 3% swing to Labor on two party vote, with 7% in Queensland, only 2% elsewhere.
None in Victoria [theyve done enough] 3 in SA {Kingston, Wakefeild, Makin-forget Pynes seat, hes solid] , 2 in WA [Stirling and Hasluck], 2 in Tassie [make that a flush], maybe 3 in NSW [Eden Monaro, Greenway and perhaps Paige}, ..how many is that then.. 10 on my estimates...some see Red ties in Solomon {NT], so thats 11. That leaves this older ALP optimistic realist looking at his involuntary home state…Banana Land. Oh yes, unless Howard can find a few rabbits to pull out the hat and toss the Media’s way I am predicting a minimum 4.0 rabbit swing away from the blue ties. But then there is the question of not so sunny Qld. Some down south are looking to Mr Rudd to more than bring a tan to the Big House in Canberra. My squirrels are digging around– weve only been able to locate 1 seat {starting with a B] that is seriously up for grabs. The punters up here are happy to see the Liberal Party Machine self destruct and and mock the bespeckled leader, even in ASCOT, yet be wary of the Queenslander psyche- it dosent move an inch without a SIGNIFICANT amout of prodding, cause some discomfort up to the wallet and ur in trouble, nothing else matters too much when the sun is shining on Beatties Bald head and the bananas are back to affordable prices……….a net total of 72ish for the ALP, OH SO CLOSE !!
50.5-49.5 to the ALP, with a 2 seat Liberal majority. When was the last time we had uniform swings nationally?
Also when the NSW State government starts revealing the turds they have been hiding for the poll you can expect the ALP to gain zip in NSW
hang me- tis going to be the theme come Election night. I will leave the commentary box now and enjoy the discourse from my radio. NO RABBITS IN QLD.
Has anyone done a comparative analysis of the NSW upper-house vote to teach NSW Senate vote by low-house District? NSW tends to vote for the party that is not in power in the other level. IE if Liberals are in power Federally they tend to vote for Labor State and vice-a-versa. If there is a change and Liberals are elected in the State then they tend to vote Labor. This is just rule of idol observation and not backed up by any real research. I am curious if there is such a trend that effects the 5-10%of swinging voters..
William – I’m 7th – hah!
vee wrote in part “It is extremely silly when you have two very small geographical electorates next to each other on the coast with similar problems. It would make more sense for it to be one electorate regardless of the number of people.
As I understand it the new electorate redistributions don’t even follow the borders of LG areas – thats pretty stupid.”
vee, for many years the commonwealth electoral act has specified that electorates will, at least at the time of the redistribution (and since 1984, the idea is that this continues for 7 years) have roughly the same number of voters.
New electorate boundaries often follow local government boundaries, but it’s not uncommon for local government boundaries to be inappropriate to follow. Perhaps the local government has more voters than the electorate will, or maybe the distribution of voters means that one local govt has to be split between two or more electorates. This is not unusual.
To EdwardStJohn
In 2004 the state NSW labor government was unpopular, but Labor still managed to win seats federally (Richmond and Parramatta), although they lost Greenway. Labor has a good chance of picking up Parramatta (sitting Labor member, notionally liberal), Eden Monaro and maybe Page (Ian Causley is retiring).
Dear William,
Please find hereunder some figures shamelessly cut and pasted from Adam Carr’s site
( http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/ )
They show the split of coalition votes in 2004 compared to 20 years previously, in Qld.
1984…Liberal Party 19.2 %, National Party 31.7%,
2004…Liberal Party 39.4 %, National Party 9.7%
My point is that while a 2PP swing to the ALP of around 6% in Qld, which would only gain 3 seats, and would from memory, bring the Labor 2PP vote to around an historically high level, and presumably be difficult to better, might however, based on past observations that Liberal seats (and therefore votes) are relatively more prone to swing to the ALP than National ones , actually be ‘ripe’ to be bettered, (assuming favourable prevailing political winds continuing), on the basis that there is now an historically greater proportion of votes ‘available’ to swing.
In other words, the ALP ‘ceiling’ in Qld of around 50% of 2PP votes, may in 2007 be susceptible to some degree of lifting.
By the way, Mark Latham appears to have actually been received far more antagonistically in WA than Qld in 2004. The first preference ALP vote of 34.8% was the same in both states in 2004, but to get there, it increased by 0.1% in Qld and fell by 2.4% in WA. Presumably the 2PP vote fell in both states, but fell more in WA. If so, and if your thoughts about the ‘Brian Burke fallout’ being fairly limited in WA are correct (I hope I have phrased that ok) then perhaps the ALP is in the hunt to win some some Liberal seats, and maybe more than just the two most marginal ones.
I also suspect that any WA voters upset that Kim Beazley was not ALP leader in 2004, would have been far more likely to have been upset that the alternative then was Mark Latham, than they would be in 2007 that it is Kevin Rudd. In summary, I don’t think that the replacement of Mr Beazley by Mr Rudd will be much of an issue for WA voters. Any thoughts?
Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell and Page are all obvious seats for Labor to go after. I also happen to think they will win Bennelong and, whilst I’m not necessarily predicting they will fall, Robertson, Paterson and even Hughes aren’t out of reach with good local campaigns. I’m undecided on Gilmore – the margin is big but is almost entirely the result of the largest single-seat swing of the 2001 election… so it’s probably a bit softer than it looks.
Banks like Gondor is ready to fall! Banks is the new Greenway of this election cycle.
There is a terrible dilemma in Banks – the margin has been whittled away, will there be a new candidate or will Daryl Melham recommit to running again?
ESJ – I believe that you are suffering from what is called ‘cognitive dissonance’.
Be brave. The sky isn’t going to fall in the moment Rudd comes to power.
I’m predicting a 98-ish Howard win, with big swings against him in safe labor seats.
Labor will need to have 54+ 2PP when the election is called to win. A smaller lead and the pro-incumbent swing by undecideds will overwhelm it.
However my predictions are relatively bad so if I was a Labor supporter I wouldn’t be losing any sleep over it.
Just looking at my post, 98-ish means 1998, not 98 seats.
The ALP margin in Banks has increased.
Rumours abound that the ALP is going to be running a new candidate in Banks and that certain pretenders have moved into the seat with a view to this.
re WA Fed seats: Although I’m thinking that Moore and Kalgorlie would be the next seats to perhaps swing Labor’s way, I’d also put in a word for Pearce. Although with the creation of Hasluck the best ALP bits have been hived off, the results from 2 of the state seats (Swan Hills and Darling Range) that comprise Pearce would show some hope – SH was won by the ALP 53-47, DR by the Libs 47-53. The other two electorates that comprise much of Pearce are two smaller rural seats (a legacy of the old gerrymander, soon to be redistributed out of existence) both of which polled more like 65-35 to the coalition. My own sense is that the urban end of Pearce might go far more to the ALP, reducing the inflated margin of 60-40 much closer to what it was in 2001 (56-44) or even further. Noting the almost 10% swing in Canning (to the Libs) in the last election, they can go the other way too.
I also note that the state redistribution in WA should commence next month – it will be interesting to see how the new (non-gerrymandering) rules are applied – and what the difference will be in potential seat winners/losers. I was wondering if Antony G or others will be making submissions, and who (other than WAEC) will be looking at where the new numbers fall?
I think the Nats have a chance in Richmond
and i agree with ESJ on Banks, I think its a possible ALP loss
I also think this Andren is a shoe in stuff is a bit over the top, I think the Nats will take that seat
however i do believe its all over for bartlett in macquarie
David Bradbury in Lindsay – what a fourth go? Talk about new blood !
No wonder they†blow yet another election
I don’t think it would be his fourth go, maybe his third. The only other person sniffing around there that I am aware of is someone who contested and lost Macquarie last time around. You can take your pick of losers!!
But seriously, Bradbury has been solid and lived and worked in the area and in a country town like Penrith that actually counts. Still, hard to imagine they couldn’t knock Jackie Kelly off.
The Coalition victory in 2004 was on the back of a massive primary vote that is unlikely to be repeated. The weakness in their position is that in NSW and VIC they could easily lose more than enough seats so that Labor will need few if any gains from the South, the West and the North.
My bet is that if there is another interest rate rise before June, ‘grandpa’ will leave gracefully and Costello will reign till March 2008 (with a majority in the Senate why would you bother going any earlier?).
I agree, anonymousie, Bradbury would seem to be the most viable challenger to Kelly in Lindsay. At least he lives in the electorate, which puts him streets ahead of the other bloke they’ve been talking about.
Kelly is probably very wary of having to face him again, because he has had her measure at the last two polls, and recovered more ground in ‘04 than a lot of other candidates out there.
Labor’s showing in the State seats in Lindsay (Mulgoa, Penrith and Londonderry) would indicate it is competitive there. Tristan remarked about the swing to the Coalition in Mulgoa, but I think it’s fair to argue it reflected the state-wide trend and was coming off a high-water mark. In comparison, as Adam points out, Penrith copped a 10-point swing against it at the ‘03 poll, so a recovery of three points is still far off the margin it was sitting on at the height of the Carr Government’s popularity.
anonymousie is right – Bradbury has pegged Kelly back a bit. If you look at the primary vote figs for western Sydney in 2004 Bradbury was the only Labor candidate to record a strong positive swing – over 2.5 per cent – and that was in an electoral atmosphere where Latham recorded the lowest ALP primary vote since the elections of 1931 and 1934. His nearest ALP rival was Ptolemy who got a swing of 0.93 per cent to him in Macquarie. Bradbury achieved a pretty good result in the circumstances. In the neighbouring seat of Prospect where the sitting member Janice Crosio retired Labor’s Chris Bowen suffered a swing of more than 5 per cent against him.
I don’t think they can push the election out till March next year – I was under the impression that the last possible date was in mid-January, meaning that the last practical date would be early December.
The control of the Senate will be an interesting thing to watch, especially if the K-Rudd does take the Reps. The current Senate will remain there until July next year, and they will have to have a particularly poor result in the election this year to lose control after that. Double dissolution, anyone?
Oh Vee, your comments on the redistribution results in NSW – and the impact on Andren in Calare.
I’ve lived in three National Party seats (must be some sort of record), and always there is this complaint that those evil and lazy city dwellers get easy access to their local member because they live in postage stamp sized electorates while poor, hardworking, salt-of-the-earth (insert any other cliche) country people have to drive for days on end to see their local MP.
Sorry, it is just another case of the bush wanting a special deal so that they can have more political voice than the just as hardworking, salt-of-the-earth and poor people of western Sydney or western Melbourne.
If you can’t accept one vote one value, then head to a country where rural voters exert control out of proportion to their part of the democracy. Let’s think about the results – more AWBs than you could poke a stick at, more $10 billion handouts that will line the pockets of irrigators, more beautifully sealed roads which carry 10 cars a day…
I think the maligned former Liberal member for Parramatta, Ross Cameron, was on the ball with his argument that what’s the difference between a group of sheep/wheat/cattle farmers and a group of kebab shop owners. Nothing, except that the rural sector is organised politically – probably because the kebab shop owners are too busy.
By the way, Andren to stand against Cobb in Calare and to win. Another nail in the Nats coffin.
My favourite cliche: Farmers don’t want handouts.
Oh, that’s a good one!!
Ross Gittins’ article in the Herald today is about how drought relief should go on a HECS based system of forward loans, paid according to subsequent income. Not a bad idea.
It’s a little too early to be making predicitons. A lot can happen in 6 months, like another Tampa, a terrorist attack on Australian soil, Kevin Rudd either falling under a bus or imploding etc.
As a Labor supporter, I’m too used to the ALP losing previous elections, after having substantial leads in the polls a few months earlier.
Not getting too carried away with all the predictions of a “Ruddslide”.
If Kevin does win, it’ll only be a maximum majority of 10, at best.
Yes, Evan, I think your caution is well placed. The electoral maths are hard for Labor – 16 seats is a lot, and despite the poll leads at the moment, voters have a habit of coming back to the incumbent on election day. the most likely result (as much as it kills me to admit it) is that the government will be returned with a much reduced majority.
Having said all that, every ten elections or so some weird dynamics come forward, and so the normal rules don’t apply. Whether or not 2007 will be one such election remains to be seen.
re Queensland it is true that Labor rarely polls above 50% but when they do they tend to win half or close to half. I refer to 1961 & 1990. also look
at the pattern of swings eg leichardt , herbert blair @ last election. also
the labor vote in 2004 was very poor 42% 2ppp If you look at the last 3 Queensland elections you can see what is possible.
Re Banks I’m sure Daryl Melham will be the labor candidate AND that
he will win that seat.
I agree, anonymousie, Bradbury would seem to be the most viable challenger to Kelly in Lindsay. At least he lives in the electorate, which puts him streets ahead of the other bloke they’ve been talking about.
Kelly is probably very wary of having to face him again, because he has had her measure at the last two polls, and recovered more ground in ‘04 than a lot of other candidates out there.
Labor’s showing in the State seats in Lindsay (Mulgoa, Penrith and Londonderry) would indicate it is competitive there. Tristan remarked about the swing to the Coalition in Mulgoa, but I think it’s fair to argue it reflected the state-wide trend and was coming off a high-water mark. In comparison, as Adam points out, Penrith copped a 10-point swing against it at the ‘03 poll, so a recovery of three points is still far off the margin it was sitting on at the height of the Carr Government’s popularity.
With respect to the seats in WA:
Stirling – The ALP candidate is Peter Tinley, a former Major with the SAS, who was in charge of the team who boarded the Tampa when it was heading to X-mas Island. He has been brought in as a “cleanskin” with no links to Brian Burke so it would be hard to think there will be any fallout in that seat. Keenan got an easy run against Jan McFarlane last time and won’t hold the seat this time.
Hasluck – Stuart Henry, the local Lib member, got a real kick in the teeth when the Federal Govt decided to approve the construction of a brickworks on Federal Airport land despite the objections of the Local constitutents, Local Council and the State Govt who all expressed their concern about the impact on the air quality in the area. It did not help that the proponent of the Brickworks is long time Union basher and Liberal Party Supporter Len Buckeridge. Stuart Henry has been trying to get on board with the anti-brickworks campaign but will lose anyway.
Canning – Despite being held by over 9% by Liberal Don Randall should still be regarded as a marginal. The ALP ran former MLA Kay Hallahan last time after their preselected candidate, Cimilie Bowden, had a falling out with campaign co-ordinator and long time BB supporter, Shelley Archer. The resulting farce of a campaign saw a huge swing to the Libs. Expect a swing back the other way because Randall has done little to endear himself to the electorate.
Cowan – The ALP are losing their sitting member, Graham Edwards, who is retiring and has quite a large personal following. Will take a lot of work from the ALP to hold onto the seat in those circumstances.
Sacha, You mentioned that electorates are required to be roughly the same size. Compare the two ACT seats with those of the NT or Tasmania. ACT is long overdue for a third seat, but apparently doesn’t fit the formula to allow another seat to be created. It’s like cutting the people to fit the formula, not adapting the formula to accommodate the people. It’s totally unrepresentative. Of course, there are already two Labor seats in Canberra – and, heaven forbid if democracy was allowed to prevail there may be three!
Tina – the reason that Tasmania is over-represented is that their is a requirement in the Constitution that States have a minimum of 5 seats. Back in the days of a 75 member House (pre 1949), they were even more over-represented. Imagine if NT had carried the Statehood referendum a few years ago – they would be required to have 5 house seats and 12 Senators, which would be close to one representative per person!
Hugo – that only applies to “original states”, which the NT wouldn’t have been. My understanding is that the NT would have gained a third senator, but that’s about all.
Tina – the populations of Tas and the ACT are not absolutely hugely different, but Tasmania will always have at least five MPs due to a constitutional provision, regardless of its population (even if it falls to 10 000 people!) and the ACT currently has roughly 2.4 quotas of voters for MPs. There was a third ACT electorate for the 1996-98 parliament from memory (the ALP won all three).
Tina, it’s not completely straightforward:
1. MPs are allocated to the original states (the six states) according to relative populations.
2. But each original state is given a minimum of 5 MPs regardless.
3. Each state is divided into electorates where each electorate contains roughly the same number of voters (not people).
4. The territories are allocated MPs by population, relative to the population in the states (I think) and their electorates are drawn similarly as are state ones.
The big lesson from the NSW Election is that electors almost never kick out single term pollies. Shelley Hancock and Anthony Roberts for the Liberals got big swings towards them, despite portents of doom, and Karyn Paluzzano in Penrith defied the statewide trend and got a hefty swing to her.
Meanwhile plenty of MPs who were seen as excellent local Members but had been around for a while got thumping swings against them – Barry Collier, Alison Megarrity to name two. Familiarity eventually breeds contempt.
I think this is more applicable to State politics where local issues are more prominent, but it still holds that an MP who has worked hard in their first term is very very hard to dislodge and this needs to be taken into account Federally.
So to sum up I think Jackie Kelly is in all kinds of trouble, as is the PM, but Turnbull probably has a chance of surviving a big swing.
And in other news you have all missed Boothby in SA, which I think will go in a swing that will be almost as big as in Queensland.
Sacha’s correct. The third (and very ephemeral) ACT seat was Namadji. Named after the National Park, is my guess. I’m surprised the name wasn’t kept when the ACT went back to two seats. The AEC usually tries to keep aboriginal names, though there are exceptions: Corinella, Gwydir (sort of), etc. Besides, the name “Fraser” should be reserved as the name of a future Victorian seat.
ALP preselections have been called for Benenlong, Macquarie, Richmond and Parramatta.
The first two are not held. The last two are key marginals, won by bloody strong local campaigns off the Libs last time.
Surely Justine Elliott or Julie Owens wouldn’t face any difficulties. Neither will Maxine McKew.
The question is, who will stand for Macquarie? You would think it is Bob Debus, and that would explain why Mark Ptolemy has declared he will run for Lindsay. Ptolemy is apparently not well-liked in the Macquarie branches and wouldn’t have a chance against Debus, but you would think he had an even smaller chance for preselection in a seat he doesn’t even live in.
Does he have a wife called Cleopatra? Is she perchance his sister?
Thanks to Luke for some decent intelligence on the WA seats. I guess I am persuaded by him and William that BB will not prevent Labor winning Stirling and Hasluck. Luke is more pessimistic about Cowan – is Liz Prime not a good candidate? And what about Swan? Does Labor have a show in Kalgoorlie? (Does Labor have a candidate in Kalgoorlie??)
What has happened to Cathy O’Toole in Lindsay? I have always felt that her pre-selection at the 1998 election (at the behest of the ETU?) helped to create divisions in the branches and extend Jackie Kelly’s incumbence long beyond its natural expiry date>
No but he has a father who lives in Kempsey.
I wasn’t aware the rule of the Ptolemies extended as far as Kempsey.
Bob Debus is 63. Considering that ALP MPs are required to retire at 65 (or at the first election after turning 65, at any rate), what would be the point?
FrootLoop appears tohave nailed it in one – Ptolemy is trying to find a new political home with Debus set to run for Macquarie but I had no idea he didn’t live in the electorate, that would have to make it pretty difficult for him to get endorsement…they’d be much better off sticking with a local who is popular and has been a successful Mayor of Penrith.
Firstly exemptions to that rule can be given by the National Executive (and obviously would be in this case), and secondly that rule would not stand up in court if challenged on grounds of age discrimination, as George “Safe” Seitz never tires of pointing out.
Haven’t heard that one, Charlie. There’s no disputing Debus would be a quality candidate, and would contribute a lot to the Parliamentary party if he got up. And he has a longstanding connection with the electorate, which the ALP needs to have in its candidates if it wants to have a decent shot at winning key seats. McKew’s run in Bennelong is pure theatrics because they aren’t really expecting to win. In the key marginals, they need to be running locals with a bit of depth, or they are going to see massive swings against them on the local vote.
Cathy O’Toole was purged because she fell out with the Hutchins machine in Penrith even to the extent of losing preselection for the local council. Also her husband Peter Jones fell out with the CEPU and was lately pursuing litigation against the union.
Really 2 goes is fair enough for anybody isn’t it? If you cant win on the second go it really means the electorate doesnt like you for some reason. Surely the hour of the NUW has arrived?
Edward, Ricky Johnston ran for Canning for the Libs four times before she finally won it in 1996.
And she lost it in 1998 or 2001 didnt she? Hardly seems worth the effort, prbably didnt even get the pension?
She lost in 1998. I think she was a friend of NCB – nuff said.
Isn’t it true that, if the ACT was given a third seat the average number of voters per electorate would be even lower than in the NT? I haven’t looked at the figures, but if true it tells me that they’re simply at opposite ends of the fair range.
The fact is that it’s much harder to keep the numbers balanced in a small state like ACT than in NSW or Victoria. When you take one seat away from NSW the change in the average is quite small, yet when you increase the number of seats from 2 to 3 it’s a massive change.
I didn’t realise the National Executive would give exemptions. In that case, I agree that Debus is a good candidate.
“My understanding is that the NT would have gained a third senator, but that’s about all.”
Correct. Part of the deal for statehood was (still is) that the NT would not get the full compliment of 12 senators, and that the number of senators would only increase over time in line with population increases. And that is fair, given there is only around 200 000 people in the NT.
Interesting AMWU delegates conference i attended today with Doug Cameron and his views on his position within the ALP and his senate hopes
well don’t leave us dangling!!
William,
Shocked by the number of my posts in your count yesterday, don’t want to be a crashing bore so I am tuning out until the Federal election gets interesting probably when the next Tampa turns up (which should be soon given old David Hicks will be coming home to Adelaide for Easter).
I still think the rodent will win (sadly – believe it or not) as the ALP only wins when it is a genuine alternative (and yes I can still remember the sense of excitement in February 1983 – the messiah no less) and I just dont think the “small target I am conservative too” strategy works. The ALP needs a Whitlam to conduct a root and branch reform – hopefully Rudd will do so when he has a clear three years.
Good luck to you all,
ESJ
I agree ESJ and that was Cameron’s point. He wants to unify and build the left it the caucus. A voice for the workers. A thorn in the rights side
And like i have said he points to the fact that when the ALP win the fight goes on
The amount of AMWU members who where/are green voters was a shock. The Greens base is growing slowly but surely and the link between left wing unionism and the Greens is also growing. Read the AMWU policies on IR, Free trade, social justice etc and then compare it with the Greens. Not too much difference! The highlight for me was the cheers and support for David Hicks after the bad treatment he has suffered under Bush and Howard.
I hadn’t intended to give the impression that prolific commenters should pipe down, ESJ. Far from it. That said, I too will be spending the next month or two drawing my breath.
The funniest thing was when the AMWU photographer ( a mate) asked Cameron if he would like a photo with me. He said “your the Greens candidate”? Yes i replied He said “No way i would be committing political suicide”
ESJ posts are always well thought out and take everything he says on board
Note that both the Liberal Edward and the Marxo-Green bill want Rudd to morph into a Whitlam-Keating Big Picture leader. I don’t think that will happen. Rudd knows what the electorate will and won’t buy.
ESJ – I enjoy your posts, your knowledge is breathtaking. Thank you for the news on O’Toole and Jones. I guess even in Sussex St if you live by the sword, you have a good chance of dying by the sword.
Its great Adam, that your so easy to get to bite. Note that Marxo-Green bill and Lib ESJ from opposite end politically see the same ALP. A try hard Lib party and unless it looses that image it might win government once in awhile but eventually it will loose its core membership to either us or a new left party. Adam i am on the front line where workers eek out a living. I listen to them. The Rudd honeymoon wont last. Promoting liberal policies wont work. We want a share in the wealth not be the slave for the multinationals. Im not a big Cameron supporter but if he stays the same the ALP caucus wont know what hit them
bill weller Says:
ESJ posts are always well thought out and take everything he says on board
It should read and I take everything he says on board
What i like about this site is the knowledge of all the writers.To actually be able to write on the same pages as all of you and to see my name in the same column as the god of election analysts Antony Green is unbelievable All my life i wanted to help people, to make a difference to someone but being extremely shy and lacked the confidence i just dreamed. I met my wife a number of years ago and she turned my life upside down and made be believe in myself to the point where i have been the candidate in a State election, convener of my local branch and now Federal candidate. I have met many a pollie now, Had many items published in the local paper and people around Australia are reading what we write on here. Yes i am in a small party but its so me now. You cant hide when there isnt many to hide behind. Oh by the way i use to collect HTV cards when i was a kid and my sister and i use to remove them from the bins at the polling booths and hand them out ( yes for all the parties) until we got caught. was fun!
Yay Bill!!
Ah bill, your admiration for Edward’s vast erudition is touching. Obviously the Liberal-Green alliance, which has been firming up during recent state elections, is also developing here. It will come to full flower in the federal elections. In exchange for Liberal preferences in the Senate, the Greens – openly or covertly – will preference the Libs in key House of Reps marginals, united by their hatred for Labor.
Let 1000 flowers bloom on the Liberal-Green alliance!
Does anyone think Labor’s got a shot in Wentworth? Apparently a poll in the Wentworth courier put Labor’s apparent candidate, Waverley Mayor George Newhouse, ahead of Turnbull a few months back. Its also, technically, the most marginal liberal seat in NSW (Parramatta being a labor seat with a liberal margin).
I’d imagine that Turnbull would throw his vast fortune at retaining the seat, and historically its never really swung more than a couple of points at a time, and its margin is probably about 2-3% lower than what it should be because of the run by Peter King last time… but seats with higher socio-economic status have been consistently swinging to labor for some time now, so perhaps the ALP has a shot. Cruelly, if Labor does well enough they could rob the liberals of probably their best hope of leader post-costello.
Any other thoughts on NSW’s true marginal?
i dont have a hatred for the ALP just the right wing of it haha. I loathe the whole lib party
The right wing are in control as you have said many times. And Rishworth is the right wing of the right wing, as you know. You have said there is no difference between the Labor right and the Libs, so why not preference the Libs in Kingston and get Senate prefs in return? Hmm?
No.
The NT’s quota is right on the 1.5 tipping point. (Indeed I think it’s still slightly below 1.5; but there was a fudge created to keep the 2nd seat prior to the 2004 election.)
Further up the page, a figure of 2.4 was cited for the ACT.
Now let’s do a bit of maths.
1.5 divided by two seats works out to be 0.75 per seat.
2.4 divided by a theoretical three seats works out at 0.8 per seat.
So the ACT would still have more per seat than the NT even with a third seat.
Does any one know of the Polls for Stirling ,Hasluck,Cowan, Swan and Brand?
Ive heard Swan ,Cowan and Brand are key seats for the Libs..
Is there any connection with Gray and Burke in WA?
Grist for my mill from Newspoll. In WA, state Labor has gone from 49-51 behind in the previous quarter to 51-49 ahead in this one. Alan Carpenter’s approval rating is up from 52 per cent to 60 per cent; Paul Omodei’s is down from 37 per cent to 31 per cent; Carpenter’s better premier lead has widened from 54-17 to 63-14. Even worse figures for the Libs from SA.
Adam said
why not preference the Libs in Kingston and get Senate prefs in return? Hmm?
Not a bad idea and you can pref FF in the senate which will flow to the libs as well and then we can have more conservatives in parliament. Oh thats right you did that last time, made sure that Howard had the Senate.
William what figures do you have for SA?
“The NT’s quota is right on the 1.5 tipping point. (Indeed I think it’s still slightly below 1.5; but there was a fudge created to keep the 2nd seat prior to the 2004 election.)”
You betcha. There was some ostensible reasons that the AEC cited to justify the extra seat for NT; but it’s obvious that the only reason it actually happened was because of behind-the-scenes politicking. With two NT Divisions, there is a good chance that the ALP and CLP will each hold a seat (Lingiari/ALP, Solomon/CLP) – hence the bipartisan support. However, given that the ACT is ’safe’ Labor turf, three ACT seats would deliver an extra seat to the ALP. The Coalition would blackball a ‘freebie’ for the other side.
Hmmm, Greens on 10 in WA? sounds like a little bit of static on the poll line. The other figures match up more or less (ALP down a fraction) so maybe a mid-term primary wobble? 6% for the Greens in SA seems about right.
As to ALP-Green-Lib-FF deals, I hope that forests do not play a part in the negotiations, that the ALP does not wed itself to FF, that the Greens not do any sort of deal with the Libs (in fact not even talk to them if at all possible), and that the Democrats retain at least 1 Senator (they do have a role to play on the centre-right).
Max Baumann has a scan of the NewsPoll for SA and WA here:
http://maxbaumann.wordpress.com/2007/03/29/newspoll-democrats-at-4-in-sa/
After the débâcles of the 2004 Federal and 2006 Victorian polls regarding upper house preferences, we’d all hope that the ALP actually sticks to principle with its tickets. That said, on both occasions their preferences were about maximising opportunities for their own candidates (which, by itself, is perfectly understandable) based on a string of eventualities; when one of the elements went the wrong way (such as a softer-than-expected ALP primary vote or greater-than-expected leakage on below-the-line votes), then all sorts of unexpected events occurred (the Fundies in 2004, the Santas in West Vic and the Greens in West Met in 2006).
After all of that, I’d certainly expect the ALP not to deal with the Fundies (or the Santas, for that matter), and to at least preference a progressive ticket second if not the Greens themselves (that’s assuming that the Dems run a serious campaign, or Richard Franklin runs his Your Voice ticket again).
The Victorian State Government has just announced that it has set up joint house inquiry into the Victorian State Election. The committee will be calling for written submissions next week and is expected to conclude its enquiry and report back to the State Parliament after June 30, 2007
There are many issues that we have identified in relation to the conduct of the State election not the least issues related to the VEC failure to publish copies of detailed results of the election (Including polling place results for the Victorian Legislative Council – The media will come in for a bit of a serve here).
In addition issues of serious concern in relation to
1) the lack of full certification of software used in the conduct of the election
2) members of the VEC accessing the results of the e-voting centre polling places prior to the close of the poll on Saturday November 25, 2006 in the absence of scrutineers
3) VEC handling of FOI requests
4) review of the Victorian Ombudsman Act in order to ensure that the Ombudsman has jurisdiction over the Victorian Electoral Commission
and other issues.
The Parliament is expected to advertise the hearings next week.
Written submission can be forwarded to Mark Roberts, Executive Officer, Electoral Matters Committee, Parliament House, Spring Street East Melbourne.
No email address have been provided by copies of any submission could be also forward to the Speaker and President of the Parliament House.
I’ve always been a big believer that Labor has a shot in Wentworth, even if the chances are less than half. With the redistribution that punished Turnbull by bringing in swathes of solid Labor territory into Wentworth. His margin is now 2.3% – 2.6% (one or the other and I can’t be bothered checking). This is highly marginal territory no matter how blue-ribbon the seat is meant to be. That, and the anticipated swing away from the Gov’t should make this a possible win for Labor. Not certain, but definitely worth a shot.
The ALP hasn’t yet chosen its candidate for Wentworth. Many local Wentworthians apparently think that the area has many rusted-on conservative voters. Even if that is true, I suspect that there are many non-rusted on voters that would swing if the swing was on. I wouldn’t be surprised if voters in Woollahra municipality (excluding Paddington) are pretty rusted on conservative voters, but there are a lot of voters in Waverley and the new areas who might swing.
To all those who explained the constitutional inequities of Tasmania being guaranteed 5 seats, thankyou. I did know that. It still doesn’t make it right. Each of the ACT seats has well over 100000 voters. I think that Fraser may have as many as 118000. If there was a third seat,(and I lived in the late lamented electorate of Namadji) there would still be well in excess of the 60000 or less in the NT seats. Right now, an ACT vote is worth about 50-60% of a NT vote. I’m not interested in increasing the number of senators, even though it is totally ridiculous that there are 12 for each state and only 2 for the territories. Ideally there should be no more than six senators for each state, and yes I know that it’s also constitutionally pegged to the numbers in the Reps. The whole system is in some need of serious reform.
Andren has just announced he will stand for the Senate, rather than in the lower house.
Says he has been considering it for the past 12 months. Admits he probably won’t get quota first up, but will have to rely on preferences.
Also says that he is hoping a network of independents around the state will give him the support base he needs on polling day. Added that he expects a couple of high profile independents in Calare/Macquarie.
Effectively, admitted an independent in the lower house is not worth much, but better off as “balance of responsibility” in the senate.
Chalk up calare for the Nats
John Cobb lives to fight another day
Sacha has got it spot on regarding Wentworth. If the swing is on in NSW, Turnbull is in big trouble. Certainly I would have thought that if there is a swing big enough to consume Howard, Turnbull is gone as well.
For what its worth, 7 comments about Wentworth, the electorate I have lived in for the last 7 years:
Firstly (and please correct me if I am wrong on this), the western boundary of Wentworth has moved closer to the CBD and thus takes in more of the area heavily populated by the gay community – and they could be forgiven for thinking the Howard Government is the most homophobic in this nation’s history – and age groups and demographics where Howard’s support is weakest (late 20s to mid 40s, professional, non-mortgage belt);
Secondly, Wentworth is surely one of the most unstable electorates in terms of people moving in and out of the electorate (so many renters etc.) – so any loyalty to MT is going to be much less than for other Liberal MHRs;
Thirdly, the impression I get from my many left-leaning friends who loved MT during the Republic debate is that he is now no longer viewed as a progressive / moderate who they might make a special exception for when it comes to ensuring Howard is booted out;
Fourthly, the fact that MT is so vulnerable will surely mobilise the latte-set in the eastern suburbs who want to “do all they possibly can to elect Kevin Rudd” but don’t want to travel any further west that Balmain or any further south than the airport. On this last point, I am little surprised that the ALP hasn’t already chosen a candidate and started firing up with letterbox-drops etc ;
Fifthly, there are still a lot of bitter people in what I would refer to as the ‘King faction’ of the Liberal organisation in Wentworth who wil stay at home rather than get out and help;
Sixthly, my own observations of MT is that he is an awkward campaigner – he certainly didn’t have the outgoing nature of Peter King or (2004 ALP candidate) David Patch; and
Finally, Wentworth electors are far less likely to use the federal election to punish Iemma & co than voters in other seats for a number of reasons (transport stuff-ups not such an issue, high % of tertiary education = greater likelihood to differentiate between state and fed issues etc.)
So….if St Kevin still has something approaching a 2PP double-digit lead in 3 or 4 months, I would say MT is in huge trouble
Andren’s decision is staggering – a case of Janine Haines/Kingston/1990 in reverse!
We criticise elections from Florida to Zimbabwe, with good reason, but the Australian system is far from perfect either.
A vote for the House of Representatives cast by a resident of Darwin is double the value of a vote cast by a Canberra elector. It takes five South Australians to equal the voting power of three Northern Territorians.
There’s an even greater disparity in the Senate, where the number of people eligible to vote for six senators for New South Wales would elect 76 senators for Tasmania and 154 for the Northern Territory if strict proportionality applied. No wonder that former Prime Minister Paul Keating once called the Senate “unrepresentative swillâ€.
Australia’s electoral inequalities stem not from fraud or malfunction but from provisions enthroned in our horse-and-buggy Constitution.
House of Representatives seats are allotted to each state according to the number of people, not the number of electors, in that state. Thus a state like South Australia, with an aging population and a high proportion of enrolled voters, is at a disadvantage against more dynamic states with burgeoning young populations but a lower proportion of enrolled voters. These states may have disproportionately more seats but fewer voters in each. If number of electors were the criterion, South Australia might well be entitled to 12 seats instead of 11.
South Australia’s next problem is that because it only narrowly misses out on being eligible for an extra seat, a large pool of surplus voters has to be distributed among the state’s existing seats. The net result is that South Australia has more electors in each of its seats than occurs in any other part of Australia except the Australian Capital Territory.
We are supposed to have a one-person, one-vote system, but at the last federal election the Northern Territory’s two seats averaged 55,825 eligible electors – more than double the 112,448 average for the ACT’s two seats. The average in Tasmania’s five seats was 67,918 compared with 95,438 in South Australia, 82,490 in Western Australia and a reasonable equality across the other three states – Victoria 88,984, Queensland 87,979 and New South Wales 86,042.
There are special reasons for some of the worst disparities. The Australian Constitution says that Tasmania, as an original state, must have at least five seats despite having population shortfall. And Federal Parliament decreed that the Northern Territory should have two seats even though it fell a fraction short of a second quota. Sensing the chance to win both NT seats, politicians from opposite sides argued the possibility of statistical error to justify overturning the Australian Electoral Commission’s assessment that only one seat was warranted. But in the end their finagling was in vain as Labor and the Coalition won one seat each.
What can be done to iron out the kinks in House of Representatives elections?
1. It would help if the proportionality of seats was based on numbers of electors, not people. But since this would mean amending the Constitution, it’s not likely to happen.
2. Most problems would be solved if electorates could spill across state borders, so that surplus numbers in one state were mopped up in another. Ideally, Australia would be one giant electorate with proportional representation. But these are utopian solutions involving unrealistic constitutional change.
3. Fine tuning would be feasible if there were more seats to play with. But the Constitution says that the number of seats in the House of Representatives must be as near as practicable twice the number of seats in the Senate. Currently we have 76 senators and 150 members of the House of Representatives. To increase the size of the House of Representatives to, say, 176 members, Parliament would have to give each state two extra senators for a total of 88. That would be deeply unpopular. An alternative would be to break the constitutional nexus so that numbers in the House of Representatives could be increased while maintaining or even reducing numbers in the Senate. That was attempted by referendum in 1967 with the support of all the major parties, but the No case won the day by saying it would lead to more politicians. So we increased the size of the Senate and got more politicians!
If the states are mildly unrepresentative, the Senate is fundamentally flawed. As part of the federal compact, tiny Tasmania with fewer than 320,000 voters in 2004 is guaranteed the same number of senators as mighty New South Wales with nearly 3,850,000 voters. This would be all very well if the Senate operated as a genuine states house, as was originally intended, but now that it acts simply as another party house the disparity in representation is nothing less than electoral corruption on a grand scale..
Even Zimbabwe would be hard-pressed to beat it.
For crying out loud Melb City, noone gives a flying f*** about the Victorian state election. It’s over, it’s done with, this is a Federal election thread, please keep it to yourself!
And to keep on topic… Peter Garrett had his first big stuffup yesterday. Wonder if the Government is targetting him as a prelude to going after St Kevvie?
Chris: Firstly – Yes.
Secondly – there’s a huge turnover in population in the Kings Cross/Darlinghurst part, at least. The electorate overall has a huge number of units, which at a guess might contribute to a turnover of voters.
Thirdly – possibly true. He’s am ambitious Liberal who’s not a nasty right-winger.
Fourthly – quite possibly true, especially as the notional margin is so small. “On this last point, I am little surprised that the ALP hasn’t already chosen a candidate and started firing up with letterbox-drops etc ;”
I suspect that the ALP was 1. waiting for the redistribution to happen and 2. getting the state election over with. My understanding is that some ALP people are pushing for a candidate to be (pre)selected.
Fifthly – quite possibly. I was handing out HTV in Darling Pt in 2004 and was surprised at the venom from King volunteers towards MT.
Sixthly – people have said this to me too.
Finally – agree.
Jeez, that throws a spanner in the works?
Maybe he could be the one to absorb those more right-wing Democrats voters whose return to the Liberals helped them gain control of the senate.
It’s hard to tell where Andren would fit in. I could easily see the result of Andren winning alongside 2 Libs, and either 3 ALP or 2 ALP and 1 Green.
Then again, while he may be able to get primary votes from Liberals, he would need to get preferences from either Greens or ALP. I’d expect that the primary for the Greens or Andren would add up to no more than, say, slightly more than one quota.
Anyway, it will be interesting, and if they do fulfill the role of the Democrats previously of being relatively progressive but taking away votes from the coalition (which was a major reason for the Coalition not getting control of the Senate until 2004), that will bring them back to 38 seats, making it conceivable Labor and the Greens (maybe in Tassie) could knock off one more seat.
PS. No way will Turnbull lose, for two reasons. 1. The seat is only marginal because of Peter King, and 2. Now he’s no longer just a rich businessman but has been quite impressive policywise, and has made a mark as Environment Minister.
There is commentary pre-Federation that indicates the senate was never going to be a states house. I don’t have Hanks on Constitutional Law on my bookshelf here but I think there is a founding father quote on that issue in Hanks.
But your analysis seems to forget we are a Federation.
If you look at the States as primarily service delivery think how much better the Federation would work if we found a way to remove vertical fiscal imbalance. I think it is a real mistake to dismiss the States.
Ben Raue – the redistribution decreased the wentworth margin by about 2.5-3% and the margin after 2001 was 7.9% – so the seat is probably winnable for the ALP if a swing was on.
If I was Andren I wouldn’t bother with a preference deal with the Greens.
The Greens primary vote is high enough now that they normally finish 6th or 7th, thus their preferences are rarely distributed.
The only states where they were distributed were SA and NSW from memory. Even then there were few horses left in the race and it was obvious which way the Greens were going to preference, ie no deal required when you are facing Lib/FF.
The more likely scenario is Andren gets 2% and eliminated early.
Understandably Ben sees Andren as a source of preferences to get Nettle (who is unlikely to be returned) re-elected since One Nation isn’t there to elect her this time.
If I was Andren I’d target all the little parties and try not to alienate right or left. All the big players will put him ahead of their opponents even if he does nothing.
With Calare going National.. is that 17 seats Labor needs now to win government ?
Jack said
And to keep on topic… Peter Garrett had his first big stuffup yesterday. Wonder if the Government is targetting him as a prelude to going after St Kevvie?
Interesting to note at the AMWU delegates conference when Cameron showed us that Garrett was being targeted by the government and He ( Cameron) would have dealt with it a better way a few voices popped up stating that Garret was a sell out and a turn coat ( makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside)
No. 16 (76 in total) is the figure for an outright ALP majority.
anonymousie Says:
March 28th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
ALP preselections have been called for Benenlong, Macquarie, Richmond and Parramatta.
Parramatta was lost because Ross Cameron shot himself in the foot by admitting cheating on his pregnant wife just before the election. Parramatta has a significant working class Christian Conservative population who would have deserted Cameron. BTW I heard a rumour that the Libs are trying to get Tim Webster to run for Parramatta.
I’m surprised by the comment that it’s unlikely the conservatives will lose control of the Senate.
I would have thought that, on current trajectories, we’re very likely to see splits of 2 Lib, 3 ALP, 1 Grn in both WA and TAS. And there’s always now the possibility that Andren may help achieve similar in NSW. Although that’s more likely to go 2 Lib, 1 Nat, 3 ALP, along with QLD, Vic and SA. With 1 each in each territory, that’d remove conservative control, wouldn’t it?
Andren’s decision strikes me as downright bizarre. He’s taken a win-win situation and made it into a solid lose. I guess there’ll just be one less independent in the next parliament.
The Greens can’t do that Ben – as Adam says the Democrats could take votes away from the Coalition by being from the centre – the Greens are trying to do it from the left.
Adam Says: That would defeat one of the purposes of the juggernaut for Hindus, which is to move towards nirvana by being meritoriously crushed beneath its wheels.
I Say: Then it should be called an Arrgh-onaut.
Jasmine you are quite right – Deakin at least (and maybe other savvier/younger delegates like Higgins) predicted Senators would soon come to vote on party lines. That doesn’t mean they were opposed to the idea of state representation, just skeptical of the design or hopes of state-righters.
Peter’s correct – the Greens are a left party, not a centre party. Quite a few Democrats voters gave their second preference to the Libs.
16 for the ALP to win government. Are there any ALP marginals that could swing to the Libs?
ABC News just announced that Carmen Lawrence won’t be contesting the election.
I must admit i can’t follow Andren’s logic here. Surely it must be nigh-on impossible for an independent to attract enough votes across the whole state to win a Senate seat (it’s been done in Tasmania but you only neeed about 100 votes for a quota there…..). I expect Andren might get some votes from the Orange/Bathurst area, but where else? How many people in Sydney or the coast would even have heard of him?
Peter and Sacha, sure the Greens don’t take many votes from the conservatives (not many, although some), but Rudd is taking from them, not back from the Greens. The polls are showing this. Greens support is relatively steady against the Rudd-o-naught, but the Libs are dropping.
Surely that makes a 2Lib, 3 ALP, 1 Grn split in Tas and WA a real likelihood.
Peter and Sacha: I think you are referring to my second-to-last paragraph. I meant to be referring to Andren in that case, not the Greens. Obviously the Greens can’t do that, which is part of the reason why the coalition gained control of the Senate. But Andren could, if he gets sufficient coverage and support.
I could also see the scenario where the Greens and Andren are both in the last three candidates going for the last spot and, like the Greens and ALP in 2004, one is knocked out and elects the other. Considering the opacity of preference deals, and Andren’s previous sentiments (in his autobiography he referred to voting #2 for the Greens in his seat and in the upper house voting Greens) I wouldn’t be surprised.
Also I don’t think the preference deal between the ALP and the Greens in NSW prohibits the Greens preferencing someone else, eg. Andren, ahead of Labor in the Senate.
I would agree with the seeming consensus that Nettle will not be re-elected and come 1/7/08 there will be a new ALP Senator.
Someone mentioned WA as a possibility for the Greens – any news from there?
Andren will try and be a combination de facto Democrat candidate and a rural protest candidate. If he sticks to a heavily protectionist, buy back Telstra and Qantas etc etc etc and gets enough coverage, I think he might squeak in at the expense of either Nettle or the third coalition candidate
I don’t see how, objectively, people can say this far in advance that Kerry Nettle won’t be re-elected.
I’ll admit that she will have a harder time getting the votes than Greens candidates in some other states, in particular WA and Victoria and obviously Tasmania. But John Kaye came within about 40,000 votes of the ALP candidate in NSW, and recent results in NSW, Queensland and Victorian elections show the Greens vote going up, either by very small margins in NSW and Victoria or much more in Queensland and South Australia.
If you look at the last election, we had a good chance, and came close to winning in all states. In Queensland, until the last minute many were still talking about Drew Hutton winning the final spot, rather than Barnaby Joyce. In SA and Victoria, more favourable preference deals from the ALP and Democrats would have secured us those two seats, and in NSW we came close on the total primary vote.
So looking at it objectively, the Greens on the mainland are in a position where they could win Senate seats in all states or no states with a relatively small swing one way or the other in our primary vote.
So can someone please try and explain why the hell you would write off Kerry Nettle at the moment?
Just a brief correction
Russel Trood was the sixth senator from Queensland
Not Barnaby Joyce
And Nettle is a goose, she does more damage to the Green brand than anyone or anything else the parties deals with
the greens should hope for her to lose, for credibilities sake
Andrew: No, Joyce was the one in the death seat, not Trood. Trood was technically elected last, but it was Joyce’s seat that was in danger of going to Hutton due to the fall of preferences.
Peter Stephens: In 2004, the Democrat seat went fairly cleanly to the Greens. Short of some strange occurrence, I’d expect the same to happen again this year.
from the libs. targeting the hip pocket scare campaign
As reported in today’s media, a report commissioned by the State Labor Governments recommends an increase in the GST.
The report highlights the serious risk of a federal Labor government working hand in hand with its State Labor counterparts.
As the Treasurer said today,
“We, the Coalition, will not agree to an increase in the GST and we have the ability to veto any demand by the eight States and territories.
Of course, if Kevin Rudd is elected, if Labor forms Government federally, along with Labor Governments in all of the States and Territories they will be able to get unanimous agreement for an increase in the GST rate, there will be no checks and balances.
…whenever State Labor Governments make a demand on Mr Rudd, he bends over backwards to accommodate… his whole background as a State public servant means that when Premiers demand things he is an easy target.
…An inexperienced leader who has a history at rolling over to State demands is their best chance – wall to wall Labor, six States, two Territories and Federally – is the best chance that Labor will ever get to increase the GST rate.”
bill weller, but are people listening to them and/or believing them? The next lot of polls will be interesting. Really, what government in their right mind would suggest putting up the GST and expect to be returned the following election. It is so much BS.
Gary we know that but voters don’t re-Tampa, Iraq, IR, interest rates, etc
Nettle -might- be re-elected, but probably not.
Greens Odds IMHO:
Tas: 95%
WA: 50%
Vic: 40%
SA: 30%
NSW: 30%
QLD: 20%
ACT: 1%
NT: 0%
Reasons:
- Death of Dems = No Prefs
- ALP vote rise pushing Greens into 7/8th place
- Libs have started putting the Greens last
- DLP/FF/CDP always put the Greens last
- FF will double from 2 -> 4%, concentrated in SA and QLD with some Vic
- Federal Greens vote typically falls compared to state election result
- Labor voters are unlikely to punt on Greens when they are trying to oust Howard
- I would give the Greens 0% in Qld, except Pauline is running again. The only reason Drew Hutton came close was because of major party GTV coralling away from her last time.
- Labor will probably preference some other parties ahead of the Greens, resulting in preference starvation
Re Bennelong:
have quickly crunched booth by booth results from last Saturday and come up with the following result:
ALP 26765 38.71%
LIB 24108 34.87%
GRN 6637 9.60%
UNITY 2886 4.17%
DEM 1420 2.05%
CDP 2502 3.62%
OTH 4828 6.98%
69146 100.00%
On 2PP, depending on assumptions about preference flows – note that my mail has 30-40% exhausting – this is roughly:
ALP 53.5%
Lib 47.5%
Make of this what you will, but there were really only two major issues working in Labor’s favour on the weekend and one of them was Federal.
New to this forum but thought it was worth contributing
Completely bizarre decision from Andren. John Cobb won’t believe his luck.
Andren’s decision seems to me to be political suicide – especially given the chances of a hung lower house seem higher than normal at this election. His only chance of election would be to get preferenced by major parties ahead of the Greens/FF – and surviving long enough to get those preferences.
On WA, I’ve got a few thoughts. The Labor vote in WA was exceptionally low at the last Federal election, so there’s really only one way for it to go.
A few people have mentioned Graham Edwards personal vote in Cowan, but I’d think a vast majority of that vote would tend to be Labor voters anyway. As a consequence, I’d guess Cowan would remain Labor, but remain fairly marginal even if the swing is on in WA. Cowan is pure mortgage belt as well, and an interest rates rise would hurt the Libs in WA.
Stirling is a seat of contrasts, with as large strong Liberal section, a large strong Labor section, and the remaining bit being the swing section, around Scarborough/Doubleview/Innaloo. Demographic changes have certainly brought more money into this area of the electorate, but it’s also brought in a lot of the “left elite” if you like, making the area more similar to an inner-city electorate, holding up the Labor vote. It’s my electorate, and I’d guess it’s a likely Labor gain at this election, as the swinging section is the sort of area where environment will work, while Hicks and Iraq will work to some extent (and thus Tinley’s an inspired candidate).
Hasluck should be Labor heartland in many ways. With areas like Midland, Forrestfield, Maddington and Gosnells domainating the area which to me scream Labor heartland (if there was such a thing in WA), it’s hard to work out how the Libs won the seat. Add on to that the hills areas tending to be marginal at state level, and I’d think Labor would be confident of winning this seat.
In Swan, my gut feel is that interest rates could again come into play, as the demographic changes around Victoria Park in particular have brought a lot of recent homebuyers into the area. Given that, it’s hard to imagine it switching to the Libs if there’s a hint of movement upward there.
I saw someone earlier say that the Libs were thinking of targetting Brand. Whoever in the Libs thinks that’s worth the effort is insane and learnt nothing from the Peel by-election.
Other than those seats, there’s really nothing that’s in anyone’s targets.
Canning could be interesting – I’m convinced that 9.6% is completely unnatural margin, and if (and it’s a big IF) Labor were to get a 6% swing in WA, I’d actually think they’d win Canning – particularly given how poorly the Dawesville vote held up for the Libs at the last state election (yes, they won it, but…). The bulk of the seat is, again, territory where the interest rates campaign would have bitten hard, and it could swing savagely again.
Kalgoorlie is totally unpredictable. Don’t even try and guess what it will do – it could be a Labor seat or a safe Liberal seat after the election. The key I guess is how much of the mining boom centered around the electorate is actually flowing into the electorate. While it’s *the* electorate where the boom is happening, it’s worth noting the high number of fly-in-fly-out workers, most of who are based in Perth electorates don’t vote in Kal.
Moore is out of range for Labor I’d say at 10.8% – the only reason for that seat coming into play would be (again) interest rates, and if Moore swung that savagely, then you’d have to bring Tangney into question. Quite frankly, Labor will not hold those seats any time in the near future. I only mention it because Stewart J did earlier.
Forrest, based on the WA south-west is losing it’s sitting member, but it’s still at 10.5% – and Labor struggles to win any of the state seats in the area, so I’d think it near on impossible as well.
Of the rest? There’s no chance of any of Perth, Fremantle, Curtin, O’Connor or Pearce changing hands whatsoever. I would be intrigued to see if the Greens can get an improvement in their section of the vote in Perth, Fremantle and Curtin (and Swan and Stirling).
That ended up a lot longer than I intended….
I think on the balance of probability, Turnbull will retain Wentworth. Although I think that the demographics of Wentworth are changing -particularly because of the latest redistribution and perhaps it may have a Labor MP in the future -I don’t think it will change hands this time around or indeed as long as Turnbull is in Parliament. If Kevin Rudd wins in a landslide then, yes, it’s possible but I think Turnbull’s high profile and personal vote probably gives him the edge. The absence of Peter King will also make it easier for him to retain the seat
Andren’s decision to run for the Senate is bizzare -he obviously wants to become the new Brian Harradine or something. He may have enough of a personal vote statewide to be in competition but I think it’s going to take a lot of preference deals and good luck and personally I think he’s taking an awfully big and unecessary risk instead of recontesting Calare. I bet John Cobb’s a very happy man though
Labor’s prospects in Western Australia are not looking good. I think Labor is probably in a good position to win Stirling and for what it’s worth, I think it will probably keep Swan. If Kim Wilkie could survive 2001 and 2004 -even though I am aware of the argument that he survived in 2004 only because the Liberals didn’t field a good candidate-I think he’ll most probably survive this election
I think where Labor will most likely be in trouble is in Brand and Cowan. Both have sitting members with high personal votes who are retiring -I do believe that in all likelihood Labor would not have retained Cowan in 2004 if it wasn’t for Edwards’s personal vote -and I think the Burke factor and the absence of Beazley will count heavily against Labor. Labor must pick up Hasluck and possibly Canning to offset these two losses but Canning has such a huge margin, it will be exceedingly difficult.
Tasmania is also difficult for Labor. I’ve heard that there’s been some infighting about the candidate in Bass, which will not help their chances there (also don’t forget that the Liberals have held Bass for most of the past three decades). Franklin has a retiring Labor MP who has indicated that he is prepared to back the Liberal candidate over his own (or at least he was saying that a few months ago) and so nothing can be taken for granted there. For what it’s worth, I think Labor will probably win back Braddon if Sidebottom is the candidate
Quite frankly I don’t see Rudd having the numbers to form government. The fact that Labor is the incumbent party in all states will not help him and several seats in NSW, Victoria and Queensland that he needs to win (Dickson, Dobell, Herbert, McEwen and Patterson are just four that come to mind) have such inflated margins that even a substantial swing will be insufficient for the seat to change hands. I think there will be a swing to Labor and Labor will gain seats but probably not enough
I agree with The Speaker’s assessments of the Senate races. Because of the expected rise in the Labor primary vote and the disappearance of the Democrats, the Greens will be left stranded with no surpluses coming to them even if their primary vote goes, which I don’t think it will. I think Brown will be re-elected, but no other Green will get up. Nettle’s seat will go either to Labor or Andren.
Andren has effectively handed Calare back to the Nats. That makes no difference to the 16 seats Labor has to win to get a majority in the House. But it does mean that if Labot picks up 13 seats, the Coalition will have a majority. There will only be a hung parliament if Labor picks up 14 or 15 seats (assuming no other indies are elected).
that should read: “even if their primary vote goes UP.”
Where does Peter Andren think he is – Tasmania?
If he managed 2% in a statewide poll he’d be lucky. Even if he could get independents to put him on HTV cards in at least 50% of seats, he’d be struggling – and they would have to be manning every booth as well!!
And to Gary Bruce’s comments wall to wall ALP governments and the GST. It’s a definite possibility especially if there’s a budget crisis in NSW – always likely and Peter Beattie doesn’t want to raise his shamefully low state taxes.
I think that underrates his chances somewhat. He has a high profile and the media loves him, so he will get lots of free air. Running from the centre, he will be better placed to pick up the old Democrat centre vote than the feral Nettle. There are two ways he can win: Labor falls below expectations: say 2.5 quotas (36% primary), and gives Andren half a quota surplus. OR If Labor does very well and gets 3.5 quotas (50%), and again gives him half a quota surplus. He will certainly get everyone else’s preferences.
It would work the other way, too. If the Coalition only gets 2.5 he could half a quota surplus from them.
Just done a moderation cleanout – apologies to those whose comments were delayed.
All those with moderate opinions have been cleaned out?
If Labor gets a good primary vote in NSW, I’d expect Labor to pick up 3 senate seats. If the coalition gets a poor primary vote, say 35%, then the last Senate seat will be in play and would probably be a toss-up between the Greens, Andren and the 3rd coalition candidate. It all depends on how well Andren would do!
In Qld, unless Labor gets an extremely good primary vote, I’d expect them to win 2 senate seats and the coalition 3 – the Greens would pick up a seat if Labor doesn’t win a 3rd seat. (Labor has never won 3/6 senate seats in a half-senate election – the Dems picked up the 3rd non-coalition seat except for last time).
Chris from Edgecliff,
Thanks for your insights into the electorate of wentworth.
If Wentworth is, as you say, “surely one of the most unstable electorates in terms of people moving in and out of the electorate”… I think that this will actually work in Mr Turnbull’s favour, as due to the changed electoral Act, the roll closes 1 day after the election is announced, and this probably means that many potential ALP voters will not, in any case, be enrolled there. If enrolment figures mentioned sometime ago on another string on this site are indicative, they may not be enrolled anywhere.
I predict Andren will perform as well as Peter Lewis did in South Australia when he changed houses, ie unimpressively.
Admittedly Lewis only jumped at the last minute whereas Andren is planned however I don’t think that amidst the noise and emotion of a federal election an independent senate candidate can achieve traction, especially in NSW.
No, Labor doesn’t need a “extremely good” primary vote to win three seats in Queensland. Three quotas is 42.9%, so they only need to get to 40% or so and they can get the rest as preferences. In 2004 they only got 31.6%, so they need an increase of 8 or 9%. In 1983, 1990 and 1993 Labor’s Senate Queensland primary vote was 38-39%, and that was in the days when the Democrats were getting up to 10%. With the Dems gone, and if the Greens don’t do much better than the 5% they got last time, as I expect, Labor on current form can easily get 40% of the primary vote and win the 3rd seat.
William Bowe, re your post of March 29th, 2007 at 5:07 am …
Those poll figures would seem to be consistent with your earlier posts about the effect of ‘Brian Burke etc’ on the Federal Election being fairly limited, assuming the poll figures are not some sort of statistical abberation.
Have you any thoughts on whether or not many WA voters would be upset by the replacement of Mr Beazley by Mr Rudd?
Ah, William,
Not that it really matters a hoot, nor is a bother, but posts seem to be displayed as being posted an hour later than they actually were posted.
Maybe it has something to with you Australians playing with your clocks over summer, while we Queenslanders are content to leave them alone? I thought that everywhere except TAS was (is) back to proper time?
Ozpolitics.Info is having more DNS problems. My apologies that the site is off line at the moment.
Just had a ring around of members of the Greens Kingston branch, many with different community group ties. They are all saying the same thing. Richardson is working the electorate well and has helped many individuals. As for the ALP candidate she is a fish out of water ( not my words ) I suppose if you dont live in the electorate it would start to show up. I would not put Kingston down as a win just yet. Richardson has a few tricks up his sleeve. One is the moving of his office to a more visible position. If the ALP did not have the ACTUs YR@W campaign active here they would be gone. Rishworth if she wins owes us ( YR@W Kingston) big time.
I believe that the reason population, rather than the number of electors, was used to determine the number of seats in each state was that SA had votes for women at federation, but the other future states did not. Similarly, Aborigines had the vote in Victoria, but not in other parts of Australia, which is why they were not counted in the census.
Bill,
The claim that the federal government cannot increase the rate of the GST without the consent of the states has always been a furphy. The GST legislation does require that agreement, but the federal parliament can easily remove the requirement for the states’ agreement. Its only use is as a political debating point, which John Howard has latched onto. Those who produced the taxation report for Labor that gave him the opening should never get to do another report for any Labor government in the universe or even one outside it like the ACT’s.
I didn’t pick you as a hater, even of the ALP right. I suppose it is an article of faith with you that the “left†is progressive. I don’t see it. I certainly do not think a shift to the left will help Labor, not that I agree with some aspects of the current shift to the right, even though I think some of the reporting by The Australian is nothing but mischief-making.
Alex on the Bus Says,
There was no debacle in the 2004 Senate election or the 2006 Victorian Legislative Council election. As you recognise, the aim of any party’s preference negotiators is not to get candidates from someone else’s party elected who might share a few policy points with their own party but to get their own party’s candidates elected.
Given that, whether right or wrong in their votes, the Greens voted against the ALP in every Legislative Council vote as of last week, whereas the both Labor parties voted together five times, it seems that my statement last year that the ALP was disappointed it did not have two DLP MLCs elected is being proved correct. The Greens have voted with the DLP more than they have with ALP, so perhaps the DLP and the Greens could do a preference deal for the Senate this year.
I am assuming that your use of the term “Santas†is meant to refer to the DLP. I do not know if there is any connection between the current DLP and the NCC (which my reading suggest is more connected to the Liebral Party than anything else), but I can assure you that, if the NCC had had its way, it would have closed the DLP down long before 1978 and that the idea that Bob Santamaria controlled the DLP is false.
The 2004 ALP-DLP-FF deal was designed to elect Jacinta Collins (the No. 3 ALP candidate). It was reported in the press before the election. Any ALP member who did not know about it did not take enough interest in politics to justify being a member of a political party. I am certain there will not be the same deal this time, not because of anything to do with “progressive†policiesâ€, but because the practicalities of the next election will be different.
Thanks Fargo, I’ve corrected the time thing, and yes daylight saving was the culprit.
William, do you have any gossip on candidates in Fremantle? This is the only seat to have been held by four Labor cabinet ministers in a row (Curtin, Beazley senior, Dawkins, Lawrence). A first-rate candidate is called for.
William, do you have any gossip on Labor candidates in Fremantle? This is the only seat to have been held by four Labor Cabinet ministers in a row (Curtin, Beazley, Dawkins, Lawrence), so it demands a first-rate candidate.
William, do you have any gosip on Labor candidates in Fremantle? This is the only seat to have been held by four Labor Cabinet ministers in a row (Curtin, Beazley, Dawkins, Lawrence), so it demands a first-rate candidate.
I’d be curious to know what that claim regarding directability is based on. With the exceptions of Brisbane and Leichhardt in 2004, have Family First ever put the ALP ahead of the Libs? In neither seat did more than 20% of FFP votes go to the ALP.
Simply, Family First voters are conservatives. It’s a nonsense to suggest that they could (or even would) deliver Kingston or Makin to the ALP.
“I predict Andren will perform as well as Peter Lewis did in South Australia when he changed houses, ie unimpressively.”
I suspect Andren does have a South Australian precedent in mind, but it’s Nick Xenophon rather than Peter Lewis.
That’s a little weird, William – why did my last reply end up several posts before the post I was replying to?
If the current trend continues Labor won’t need anyone’s preferences to win three seats in Victoria because (as I keep saying) Labor will get three quotas or better on the primaries. The Democrat vote has collapsed and gone about 60/40 Labor/Liberal. The Greens can only hope to do better than their 10% of hardcore ferals if they move to the centre, which of course their rank-and-file won’t allow (just ask bill).
I’m sure if the ALP falls a seat or two short of winning the election, and an FF arrangement would have won the seat, the number crunchers will sit back and bask in their ideological purity, knowing they gave away government to help get another green senator elected.
(sarcastic)
I think there’ll be another deal somewhere, just not Victoria.
Err… lower house FFP preferences are never going to go to the ALP, so the above statement is nonsense.
Adam, Lawrence named her preferred successor as part of the Lateline report – I can’t recall her name but it’ll be in the transcript when its posted. A 40yo UN official who is returning to Australia after ten years abroad. Sounds like she will indeed be a first-rate candidate.
Bill
Your story re the report by the states recommending an increase in the GST is false.
Please provide the excerpt from the report that shows this recommendation. Such a recommendation only exists in the mind of Costello.
The author of the report was on the radio and stated the report made no such recommendation, it was an invention of Costello as part of the govt. latest scare campaign. The author likened Costello’s claim to something out of the Da Vinci Code and said it would mean the state premiers were the Knights Templar.
On the GST it would not matter who was in power, you must remember that the GST was approved by the state governments, liberal and labor , with a liberla federal government.
Costello stated that a liberal government would not increase the level of the GST, like they would never ever bring in a GST.
If a reelected Howard government proposed an increased GST to the states in exchange for business taxes being dropped and threatened the states by withholding GST unless they complied then an increased GST would be brought in.
This would benefit business to the detriment of consumers.
Charlie,
Somewhere on Mumble there is a post on the directability of FF how to vote cards. FF voters follow the HTVs very strongly and it turns out that in 2004 it would have been better for the ALP to have preferences from FF than for example The Greens in a number of seats (Kingston and Makin come to mind), so the possibility is open that the ALP may do a deal in the Senate in exchange for lower house preferences, maybe in SA.
Arbie
that report was from the Liberal party email news. I get email news/briefs from all the parties. I did not write it so if its false take it up with them. I was showing the Libs way of trying to gain support through the hip pocket
Adam said
The Greens can only hope to do better than their 10% of hardcore ferals if they move to the center, which of course their rank-and-file won’t allow (just ask bill).
Strangely I am attacked off this list as being to center or even rightist and attacked on this list as a commie. Goes to show i cant please anyone. If the Greens were to move to the center then there would be no point being a member. Might as well be in the ALP with no voice and pro big business.
BenC the ALP did deals with FF in the SA State Election and at the last minute FF changed its mind so i have been told by ALP members. FF is not a trustworthy party.
Bill
My apologies, I originally read your post as a fact from you,not as a report from the liberal party.
I think it is just the first in a long line of campaigns the libs will run to find an issue that will get the voters back to them.
We have had the “unions will run the country”, now the “GST will increase”, the next ones will be “labor is soft on drugs”, “labor will let more boats in”, “labor will allow gay marriages”, “labor will destroy the family unit” etc on interest rates, housing, health, muslims, our christian heritage, employment, industry …..
thats true Arbie but the thing that voters will be swayed is money or the possibility of loosing some of it
Bill
What are your thoughts on Humphries seat in the ACT.
I know a few people there and their thoughts are that Humphries is a bit on the nose, he is a failed local opposition leader and has not supported local government legislation that has been vetoed by Howard.
It is a big ask to get the 2nd seat, but ACT is a large public servant town and they are next in Howards work choices sights. My friends tell me that conditions are already being cut with penalty rates for shift work and public holidays significantly cut and it was Howard that ended the generous super scheme for new entrants to the PS.
Humphries did get an increased vote in 04, but I don’t think many could vote for mad mark in 04.
ACT is supposed to be environmentally aware, another plus for the greens.
Could the greens and labor work to get the second seat.
The Bass candidacy was originally handed to Steve Reissig in the factional carve-up of seats. Reissig narrowly failed to win a seat in state parliament at the 2006 state election. However, he pulled the plug not long after winning endorsement
Labor’s new candidate is Launceston Deputy Mayor Jodie Campbell. From afar, this seems like a good outcome the ALP, who have held the seat for three of the past five terms.
Retiring Labor MP Harry Quick is indeed backing Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin. But the only practical implications of this are that we can now tag Quick the Zell Miller of Australian politics. For Franklin is a seat safe within Labor’s keeping.
Arbie said
Could the greens and labor work to get the second seat.
At this point of time the ALP does not see the point of Green prefs and many Green candidates are getting the cold shoulder from them. The Libs in the Marginals are working hard for Green prefs
What is the earliest and latest that Howard can call an election?
The constant Green bashing on here by Adam in particular bothers me naught and is in fact a sign that opposite to what they are saying the Greens prefs are important otherwise why say its not constantly. The other point the ALP are showing by this form of bashing is that the Greens are a real threat to ALP seats in the future and maybe in this election due to polarization of the electorate the Greens vote may dip slightly or remain stagnant. ( i believe it will rise in some States considerably ) But in coming Elections both State and Federal we will start to see Green lower house breakthroughs the nightmare of every right wing ALP member
My personal opinion of Green preferences should be that they go to candidates in order of how they line up within Green principles and policies. There should not be an instant expectation that they will always go to the ALP.
And after reading the above that would be an central approach which should make Adam happy as he sees that as a way forward for the Greens. That would mean most of the parties would be sitting center right and whats the point of that especially when left wing parties worldwide are making a comeback with Socialist Parties moving into Green Party territory
While it is generally known that the Dutch share the nomenclature of
GREEN + LEFT in the form of the GroenLinks [Green Left]Party, this
article on the Durch SP is very interesting. It comes from the
Canadian based “Socialist Project” journal and I have adapted it from
its pdf roots:
http://urltea.com/23n
On the Senate people have mentioned Qld, Tas & NSW (in regards to the Greens), but not Vic or WA. These would be the two states I would think have the highest chance of electing Green candidates. Last election recorded no change to the ALP Senate vote in Vic (albeit 4% off from the 98 election). I’m not sure that the ALP will regain that 4% (assuming that at least some of it is now in the Green vote). In WA there was a swing against the ALP, which should be corrected, but the 98 vote was only 34.7% so I wouldn’t see the ALP vote going above 35-36% (and perhaps staying a little lower). The 98 result for SA was 32% also, so I actually think the ALP will be in trouble to pick up 3rd seats. I pick 98 because even with the Hanson vote, you can see much of it coming off the Libs, but not returning to the ALP in subsequent years. I personally don’t think the ALP vote will return to historic levels of 20 years ago (although this election might prove me wrong!!).
While not prepared to write off the Greens chances in NSW (the ALP’s vote is on the rise, but that as ON disappears, but now with AAFI coming back into play), I would still argue that (as others have said) Vic doesn’t offer too much in the way of extra votes for the ALP, and WA is still uncertain territory. And on NSW AAFI are now polling 1.5% (and Shooters 2.5%) in parts Western Sydney they poll even higher (on the Mac Fields booth I was on they polled 5.6%), so I think the ON vote is alive and well and being soaked up by assorted other rightwingers – they will direct to the Libs/Indies and only come into play in a tussle between the ALP & Greens.
Mr Q: nice analysis of WA, but I think you write off Pearce too early. I expect Moylan to lose 4-5% off her vote (bringing her to 55-45 on 2pp) and setting the seat up to fall in 2010. The urban end of the electorate is moving away from the Libs as it increases in population, and the rural end slowly depopulates (or re-populates with tree-changers, depending on where) this could have an interesting effect on the seat in future with more swinging voters and a less stable ‘core’ of ALP-Lib voters.
Finally, as to Adam’s post re the Greens moving to the centre – this is already happening, just as it is inevitable in any party as it matures/ages. Whether it happens much prior to this election, however, will be open to view when the policies are announced and when strategies become clear. But I would suggest that the days of dread-headed/brightly coloured candidates is over, and the days of suits are in. Certainly in most states other than NSW there has been some movement within in the party to soften policies and attitudes towards a number of controversial/contentious issues. How this is broadcast to the electorate remains to be seen.
Bill,
“Greens prefs are important otherwise why say its not constantly.”
umm because that’s what they think. It’s a little strange you think people are using reverse psychology in their opinions.
All research has shown that no matter which way the Greens preference, the voters tend to ignore it. It has a microscopic difference of like 10 votes.
Greens preferences are largely symbolic. Labor uses the Green/Lib preference deals as a way of attacking the greens to drive down the Green Primary vote and thus prop up the ALP primary.
Charlie,
Err… lower house FFP preferences are never going to go to the ALP, so the above statement is nonsense.
They did in marginals in SA and QLD.
So the above statement is nonsense.
re FFP preferences: the real question is did they follow the HTV when it directed them to preference the ALP.
PHON voters tended to follow the HTV quite well, such that when they produced their double-sided HTV the vote split almost exactly 50-50 (I scrutineered the Nedlands by-election in 01 and watched their count – interestingly about 15% of PHON voters went 2-Green). Whether FFP voters do I don’t know.
Yes, as per Bill’s question, I’m also wondering – what are the earliest and latest dates by which the election can/must be called?
Yes I’m aware of the proportionality thing Sacha, some seats don’t even meet anywhere near quota.
Coota, good for you, Nationals seats are typically pro-farmer and anti-townspeople. You did well to be able to afford to move from those seats. The one vote, one value is fine if there is equality of opportunity but as I said, the distribution marginalises voters – which is probably a good case for voluntary voting. I do find it interesting however when the “bush” makes a complaint, its whinging but when the exact same thing finally reaches the “city” people jump up and down. I understand it is a population thing but it shows you how the stigma the populous is spun works. I say this because I only began to follow politics a few years ago and heard the city/country thing so often – I dismissed it as nonsense but unfortunately its true as I’m now beginning to see. It is interesting to see what you think I implied.
I still think Ross Cameron should’ve won Parramatta – he came clean at least. Yes Cobb will probably win Calare now.
On towards the Federal Election.
Its true that Greens preferences are largely symbolic, but it can be one hell of a symbol.
If Howard trots out a few more policies like the international forestry agreement and the Greens decide to preference Libs over Labor it is reasonable to expect that it would have a effect on Labor’s primary vote, especially since Labor is working very hard to present themselves as an environmental party
# bill weller Says:
“What is the earliest and latest that Howard can call an election?”
I believe the latest possible date is 19th January 2008, but there’s never been a January Federal election before, so you’d assume early December is the latest likely date.
Oh, if you want to know when it has to be *called* by – that’s November 26th for an election between Dec 29th and Jan 19th.
I think an interesting implication for Andrens decision to run in the senate (and presumably organise a coalition of independents at the H. of Reps level so the ‘how to vote cards’ throughout the state can get him over the minimum 200 000 votes he needs) will be the possibility for these local independents who are affiliated with Andren to have their own profiles boosted. In particular, a popular independent who runs in the new Maquarie or Calare with Andrens backing may get up, or more likely, decide the outcome according to their preferences.
As Andren has now registered himself as party to get above the line on the senate ticket, the ‘coalition of independents’ may prove to be a formidal force for preferences in the semi-rural electorates.
Arbie Jay
“Under Labor you will do as you’re told.”
There are many they can use, no matter how exaggerated.
NEXT NEWSPOLL
It’s even how it will go. If in the next one Labor and Rudd’s numbers go up even slightly, as a neutural observer, Liberals and Howard should at least attempt to fix their perception problems. Unless the Budget is really good for them (and this will be delivered under pressure) they will lose, and lose heavily. I’m shocked if this polling continues, they don’t go start to go into damage control.
The ALP at is best?
This spate of major dramas in the ALP — in the seat of Newcastle –
and then the threats over the attempt to impose Greg Combet on Kelly
Hoare’s seat of Charlton is all very interesting as we approach next
month’s federal ALP conference.
But this expulsion
http://theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21474484-2702,00.html
in Tasmania of Terry Martin takes the cake.
ALP under attack?
Back in the eighties when George Georges said he would oppose the
Australia Card — then a project of the Hawke ALP government –they
threatened to expel him and in effect forced him to resign. Now a
certain starker realpolitick is asserting itself in the party — one
that has no allusions as to even the pretense of democratic process.
So theres’ a crasser and blunter autocracy in play here that has
transcended factional alignment and become totally consensual.
Look at Peter Garrett –see the man swing with the mode in play as
“toeing the line” is all that matters. Doublethink. And the ALP do it
so much better at it than the Coalition.
dave riley
C-Woo Rudd and co can only go one way and thats down. Its so early yet. Howard will have tricks up his sleeve. Money talks and im sure he will start up a interest rate type campaign a month before the election. Hes sitting back letting the ALP run out of steam ala tortoise and the Hare.
With the money situation, i’m not so sure. And Howard’s asking for a fifth term, it may be asking a lot.
Bill, another interest rate rise will take the wind out of Howard’s sails.
I really don’t think you are reading the signs (and there are many) if you believe Howard can do a Houdini this time. Tell me Bill, if the economy is uppermost in the minds of the masses and the coalition is seen as the better economic managers how come the polls are as they are now? Are people forgetting about the economy now and they need reminding during the election campaign. Doesn’t ring true to me. Something is working against this government this time.
Gary. C-Woo:
I hope so an ALP win by 2-3 seats would be good. We don’t need a landslide to produce another arrogant government
Bill
I reckon a landslide would be a good result, it would give the libs a good clean out and also serve as a reminder to most pollies that they cannnot take voters for granted no matter how large a margin they have.
Bill, I will gladly take a two or three seat win, just as long as it is a win.
Look at the current polls.
It all started to go pear-shaped for Howard after the Obama comment.
Anyone else agree with me?
Agreed. The Obama moment may just go down as Howard’s version of the Latham ‘Troops home by Xmas’ episode. Funnily enough, it was regarding the same thing and goes to show just how different the political landscape is in 2007 compared to 2004. The media have certaily cottoned on to the worsening situation in Iraq this time around and the ‘little dessicated coconut’ cant get himself out of his bind.
It’s not that what he said was bad, but it was the wrong thing to say at the wrong time. This won’t cost him his job (interest rates, climate change, Work Choices and a general feeling of restlessness with Howard could do him in), but it was the minute where the whole 2001-2007 pseudo cold warish stuff ended (if you get my drift). Like the muslim thing. In the last six months, it has died down. A year ago it would have been a election issue. But now (barring another terror attack) it does not look like it. And this, as a person who does not like racism at all, can only be for the better of this country and drag Australia kicking and screaming into the 21st century.
Terry hicks for bennelong – who is with me
I agree Joel.
As an Independent or a party?
i think as an independant
The public haven’t even heard of Obama.
I think the polls are the way they are because Rudd is steady, he’s a fresh face – the government is old and boring.
“The Greens can only hope to do better than their 10% of hardcore ferals if they move to the centre”
I am surprised that Adam thinks that hardcore ferals are as much as 10% of the electorate. One would expect softcore ferals to number as many as their hardcore brethren and ferally-sympathetic non-ferals to be at least twice as numerous.
That means that ferally-inclined people make up nearly half of the electorate. Perhaps the ALP should take them more seriously.
Dismissing Greens voters as “hardcore ferals” is frankly a ridiculous claim whose only discernible function is to annoy people like Bill. So I can’t *possibly* imagine why Adam would make such statements…
Rudd fresh face and boring like Howard. I hate to admit it but i was one of the people years ago who thought Rudd would have a chance against Howard. I miss the charismatic leader days
Leader of the Government in the Senate, Senator the Hon Nick Minchin, has released the following statement:
“On behalf of her family and friends, I regret to advise that Senator Jeannie Ferris passed away last night.
Jeannie died peacefully in hospital where she had been for several weeks, supported by her family and close friends.
Jeannie will be sadly missed by her family, her many friends and Parliamentary colleagues.
Jeannie served as a Liberal Senator for South Australia for almost eleven years, and has been Government Whip in the Senate since August 2002.
Jeannie was an extraordinary human being who served her nation, her State and her Party with great distinction.
Jeannie endured with typical fortitude her treatment for cancer in 2006, and her return to the Senate last year was courageous and warmly welcomed by all her Parliamentary colleagues.
Arrangements for Jeannie’s funeral will be advised as soon as possible.
Messages of condolence to Jeannie’s sons Robbie, Jeremy, and other family and friends should be sent to Jeannie’s Parliament House office.”
I recall reading that Terry Hicks ran against Alexander Downer and came second.
Brian Deegan ran against Alexander Downer, not Terry Hicks.
Sorry. Got them mixed up.
There were some rumours that Terry Hicks was going to run with the Dems in Mayo, then there was an article in the advertiser a few weeks later saying that Hicks had turned down a spot on the SA Dems senate ticket.
Gosh Adam,
Your surely not calling me a feral are you? That would be very very funny!
I’ve lived in Boohtby for 13 years and would like to point out some facts. Governments win on the back of local campaigns for seats. If you are going to write off Boothby how this for thought: I’ve never recevied ANY ALP material since moving here. According to the Advertiser, Senator Kirk turned down being the ALP candidate for Boothby, having been asked by Rudd. So that means there isn’t even a candidate with less than 9 months to the election. How can the ALP win the seat with an entrenched local candidate who has lived and worked in the area, and one who I receive material and see at the shopping centre? Remember that polls only cover national issues, not those that local MPs deal with.
Jack Says: March 29th, 2007 at 1:40 pm It not over and done with. The Electoral Matters Review commitee is on the way. It you not interested skip it and move on. It is an electoral matters forum. If you want to make a submisison then now is the time to do it.