Welcome to the first episode of a new series in which the key seats for the federal election will be put under the microscope. And what better place to start than in the Perth northern suburbs electorate of Stirling, which was home to your correspondent from the ages of two to 23. Stirling was created at the 1955 election to cater for post-war suburban expansion, and roughly assumed its current dimensions following a redistribution in 1969. Subsequent growth in Perth’s northern corridor has been accommodated by drawing in the once semi-rural electorate of Moore, and through the creation of Cowan when parliament was enlarged in 1984. Stirling now extends from Scarborough, Trigg and North Beach on the coast through the light industrial areas of Balcatta and Osborne Park, on to low-income Balga and Mirrabooka and the more affluent Dianella nearer the city. This chart compares Labor’s two-party results since the seat’s creation with the corresponding state and national results; the figures in boxes indicate shifts resulting from redistributions.
This map shows the two-party vote by suburb at the 2004 election: red indicates a majority for Labor and blue for Liberal, with the size of the number varying as a rough indicator of the number of votes cast.
In its original incarnation, when it extended inland all the way to Guildford, Stirling was a Labor-leaning marginal held for all but one term by Harry Webb (not to be confused with this Harry Webb) from 1955 to 1972. The 1969 changes produced a 3.4 per cent shift that made the seat notionally Liberal, but Webb comfortably held the seat on the back of the 1969 pro-Whitlam swing, only to lose it in 1972 when Western Australia substantially bucked the national trend (another Labor casualty being Forrest). Ian Viner held the seat for the Liberals from 1972 until 1983, surviving by 12 votes in 1974 and going on to serve as Aboriginal Affairs Minister in the Fraser government. Stirling has since been remarkable for its adherence to the statewide swing, as indicated by this chart showing the deviation from the state and national swing to or from Labor. The range between plus and minus 2 per cent is coloured as this is within the standard deviation for Western Australian electorates from the statewide swing; notably, Stirling has fallen within this range at every election since 1975. In other words, Stirling has been of above-average averageness for 12 elections in a row.
In line with Labor’s strong overall performance, Stirling changed hands when the Hawke government was elected in 1983, with Ron Edwards winning the seat from Ian Viner. Despite an unfavourable redistribution in 1984, Edwards held the seat by narrow margins at the next three elections, surviving by just 234 votes in 1990. He finally lost to high-profile broadcaster Eoin Cameron in 1993, when WA again bucked a national pro-Labor trend. Throughout this period the coastal suburbs assumed an older and more Liberal-friendly profile, but this was counterbalanced by a series of redistributions beneficial to Labor, the most recent of which added Balga and Mirrabooka in 2001. Labor was thus able to regain the seat in 1998, when Cameron was defeated by Jann McFarlane.
Stirling changed hands for the third time in five elections in 2004, after another swing consistent with the statewide result. There were instructive variations in the swing within the electorate: a clear “doctors’ wives” effect can be discerned in the coastal suburbs, in contrast to the strong swings to the Liberals in lower income areas further inland.
The Liberals’ success came despite the embarrassing withdrawal of their candidate Paul Afkos eight months earlier, when it emerged he had borrowed $300,000 from a man he knew to be a convicted drug trafficker. Afkos stood aside and was replaced by Michael Keenan (right), real estate salesman, state party deputy director and former adviser to Amanda Vanstone and Alexander Downer. Labor suffered a slightly less dramatic embarrassment during the campaign period, when McFarlane told a talk radio caller (who proved to be Liberal activist Michelle Poor, later to run as the party’s candidate for Balcatta at the 2005 state election) that the party’s tax policy might need adjusting.
Michael Keenan has kept a fairly low profile in his first term in parliament, perhaps because his shaky hold on his seat has prompted him to tend to local matters. He faces a formidable Labor opponent in former SAS officer Peter Tinley (left), who was made a Member of the Order of Australia in 2003 after serving as deputy commander of the Special Forces Task Group in Iraq. He earlier served in Afghanistan and as the operations officer when the SAS intervened during the Tampa crisis. Tinley made headlines in November when he described the Iraq war as a “strategic and moral blunder”; he was promptly approached to run by Kim Beazley, then entering his final week as Labor leader. This thwarted the ambitions of Jim Murie, an official with the Left faction Communications Electrical Plumbing Union, who withdrew his nomination shortly before the preselection vote in February.
UPDATE: Mr Q at Eagles Flying High has helpfully overlaid the above map with state electoral boundaries.
108 Comments
This is a superb profile! Congrats. I do hope to see more of these seat-by-seat profiles in the coming months ahead.
Yes, fully agree – I reckon there are enough seats in play to have a new one every week! What do you think William?
Agreed. An excellent, comprehensive, in-depth and interesting summary and analysis of this seat. I look forward to seeing your profiles of other seats, William
Excellent William. If the Labor booths which swung to the Liberals by 3-6% in 2004 swing back to Labor, then Labor should regain the seat. Looking forward to your analysis of other seats as the year progresses.
Keep up the good work. I agree with the other respondents comments. Being a parochial Queenslander I am looking forward to the profiles of key Coalition seats in the Greater Brisbane metropolitan area.
Nice work. Can we have Bass next?
That is the most comprehensive analysis of a seat i have seen. Antony Green will be very proud of you, im sure.
Speaking of Antony Green…. does anybody know if the election will be broadcast live over the internet? i will be living overseas at the time and dont want to miss it LIVE.
HH, the ABC’s broadcast of the NSW election was online, so I think you can be pretty confident the federal one will be as well.
Congrats on very nice profile.
Interesting to see Innaloo and Yokine which I believe at state level are ALP (Please correct me if wrong)
I think this seat can’t be called until Election day but I suspect may full to the ALP.
Can I ask for one thing to be added have the correspondance state seat bountary drawn in the colour of the Party which hold it.
I’ve had to put up with the sight of Michael Keenan grinning at me from a billboard outside the City West shopping centre every day for the last 4 years, blandly assuring us commuters that he is “getting on with the job”.
Periodically it gets replaced due to defacement (throwing of paint, daubing of Nazi symbols on foreheads etc.), but after the latest attack about a month ago the poster was taken down and has yet to be replaced – just a black graffiti-daubed space remains.
I’m viewing this as a good omen. Since I’m resident in Curtin (Julie Bishop would need to be caught engineering a terrorist atrocity to be threatened there) I think I’ll be taking more interest in neighbouring marginals.
I notice that the strongest pro-Lib swings for 2004 were in lower-middle or working class areas like Balga and Mirrabooka. I suspect the mortgage rate campaign would have been particularly effective in these suburbs; I wonder how they’re feeling about the workplace changes, and what effect recent interest rate rises have had? While I have no proof for this statement, I suspect that Balga etc. hosts less of the fly-in fly-out resource industry workers who would have no complaints about their AWAs, given how much money they are being paid. These people could afford to set up house in more salubrious areas. Instead there might be a higher concentration of lower skilled workers employed around Perth, for whom the workplace changes have not been such good news.
Having said that though, the employment market is so tight in Perth now that I think any worker with their head screwed on properly can get a job with a salary well above market rates, due to demand. Therefore the general negative feeling about WorkChoices expressed in opinion polls could be diluted in WA electorates like Stirling.
PS: Could Deakin be next on the list please – my home electorate from the ages 0 to 24! To think we nearly had the pleasure of Ken Aldred’s return to the federal arena …
Bmwofoz: Innaloo was a marginal seat which Labor gained in 2001, and was abolished in 2005. Yokine was a formerly marginal seat that was made reasonably safe for Labor by the 2005 redistribution. Other corresponding state seats are Carine, which is safe Liberal; Churchlands, which would normally be safe Liberal but which is held securely by independent Liz Constable; and safe Labor Balcatta and Girrawheen (which takes in part of the north-eastern corner).
Yay, my electorate first up. I must admit, I always forget about the Yokine area being so marginal (with the corresponding state seat being fairly firmly Labor), and the Dianella vote really surprises me, but a superb review.
I’d think those same areas with big swings to the Libs at the last election would also be exactly the sorts of areas where IR could work for Labor, if it’s going to work anywhere in WA.
William may i suggest that if the minor party candidates are known that you could include them too?
Love your work, William.
The Queensland seats that strike me as most likely to be of interest are Herbert, Longman, Blair, Leichhardt and Capricornia. Bonner and Moreton are probably gone even if the national swing is relatively low. Dickson, Flynn and Petrie are probably safe in anything but a record-breaking result.
bmwofoz, for Stirling, the map against the State seats is as follows:
http://flag.eaglesflyinghigh.com/election/stirling_state.gif
Churchlands would be safe Liberal without Liz Constable, but with her there, the conservative vote goes all to her, so much so the ALP finished ahead of them. I’d guess it would be Lib by about 12% otherwise.
William you outdo yourself. I can’t imagine where you find the time.
WooHoo, Mine first!
As a Balcatta Lad, I too have noticed the proliferation of Michael Keenan Seat Ads.
One has to wonder why he would be spending so much money so early.
again more praise to quite a thorough profile – I hope you’re not aiming to take Antony’s job on at the abc
haha
Good work, Mr Q. Looks like I was wrong about Girrawheen, bmwofoz.
Not so, William.
Girrawheen overlaps with the north-east corner of Stirling.
Yeah, I got the order of two roads confused (for some reason I thought Beach Road was south of where it is). I’ll do a quick correction.
Corrected. That’ll teach me to automatically trust my geography (mind you, it would be the first time I’ve made a mistake about where a particular road is in Perth in years….
I’m surprised how many Stirling residents we have on this site!
Bill Weller, personally I think the articles should be focused on the candidates that can actually win
Chris is think democracy and equality recommends that all aspects of the electorate ( if known ) should be included
Since there are so many locals about, perhaps someone can offer some insight into why Gwelup has become such a Liberal stronghold. The place wasn’t too flash when I were a lad – home to a caravan park, some public housing and a swamp. I’m guessing a lot of heavily mortgaged urban infill has come along since then.
William: Since everyone is begging for their pet seat to be profiled next, can I suggest you go from most marginal to least ?
Are you interested in digital pics from any seat ? I can probably get you photos from Griffith, Bonner, Moreton, Bowman and Brisbane.. and Ryan.
Quite impressive, Mr B. With Tinley on-board as the ALP candidate I’d think there’s a lot of interest on previewing this seat. Does anyone know if any of the reputable polling outfits have looked at it lately?
If you’re looking at other seats, I’d be interested in your take on Bennelong. There’s been more punditry on it than any other seat I think, and you’ve put forwards your views on the McKew candidacy – what do you reckon?
You’re pretty much spot on William.Gwelup used to be a swamp, but these days it’s been filled in and covered with McMansions (well most of it anyway). I guess it’s location west of the freeway and relatively close to the city made it a developers dream. Notably the same thing is now happening to the similar area where the old market gardens were in Stirling.
William, with reference to Gwelup, not many of the Market Gardens, Soil Wholesalers or Caravan Parks remain, mostly all housing now.
The City of Stirling has a suburb profile on Gwelup (and all suburbs)
http://www.id.com.au/stirling/commprofile/default.asp?id=270&gid=170&pg=7
“There was a considerably larger percentage of households with high income levels in Gwelup than the City of Stirling in 2001 and a smaller share of low income households. This is indicative of the exclusivity of the area and its attractiveness to affluent households, as well as a reflection of factors such as lower unemployment rates and a greater share of persons with a bachelor degree.”
Excellent as usual. Stirling effort.
Bennalong time coming has it Barney?
I agree this is excellent coverage for stirling
could the 2pp for stirling be listed based on state results
please
If possible the overlay of state map for federal seat should be included
for future marginal seat coverage
Excellent reading William. I live in the Coalition’s most marginal seat: Kingston in southern Adelaide. A profile on it would be excellent.
Dave
I would have to second a motion for Kingston. A very interesting seat to watch, so many little variables.
congrats for this. Excellent work Mr Bludger. polls apart from other people!!
My feeling is Mr Tinley is the non-politician people are looking for. A good candidate who speaks well and directly.
I believe he has luck on his side though Fulvio. Werriwa’d we be without William? He’s usually the one makin whoopee with the puns. Hey that’s a long bow man!!
While we are putting in wish-lists – and that is fantastic, if WA is to get another excellent profile could it be Canning which is probably very safe Lib, rather than Hasluck which almost certainly should fall (unless Rudd Lathams) or Kalgoorlie which is less safe than Canning.
To my mind Canning has an interesting demographic mix and Labor had a candidate issue as well as a Latham issue last time.
I also thank you William for an excellent summary.
I second the Speaker’s motion that the reviews go in order of marginality – making my home of Swan due pretty soon – just after Kingston and Hindmarsh!
I agree that Michael Keenan will struggle to hang on. The seat was always a tough prospect, Michael hasn’t exactly out-performed and will know that he’ll have to put in the hard yards to hold the seat. This campaign will be a long and hard one.
LNumber of ways this can be done
1 In order of Margin
2 Alphabetical order
3 Go from state to state in Clockwise picking a different seat
4 Random by pulling a name out of a hat
5 A seat that has made the headlines that week
6 A seat that either Rudd or Howard have visited in the previous week
gee i think Kingston would be a good choice too but i cant put my finger on why
Bill old boy, do you have a campaign site either online or in the making? I’d be interested to have a look at it.
Im still waiting for that to happen Michael. Kingston has been a very inactive branch for many years and its only recently that the active members have grown.
In Kingston we could run a website easy on all the issues here. If the Party cant afford it ill look into doing it myself for the branch
I’m sure there’s a good pack of IT-competent Greens around who could help you design a top-notch website. Good luck.
*cough* Bonner *cough*
(cleverly concealed hint for William above)
Labor has looked outside the square and approached a glamorous, high profile person to run as its candidate in Boothby. Decision pending.
Two things:
As far as what seats William should do next, I reckon it’s a good idea to rotate between the states (although each state has different numbers of marginals, so this can’t be a hard and fast rule) but I mean really William, you should do whatever seats you want to, as I’m sure you’ll do.
Oh, and the other thing: does anyone have any idea who Labor is running in Macarthur against Pat Farmer?
So who is it, Phil? Any idea?
Yes, I have an idea, but we’ll have to wait and see if the person conc erned will go on with it. If so, it will create a bit of interest.
Oh come on, that’s just not cricket. You can’t half tell the story.
I agree. But it’s delicious to be sitting on a secret.
A hint? Is it someone that people outside SA should recognise?
People outside SA would certainly recognize the family name, but they wouldn’t associate it with politics. Nuff said.
Ok, so it’s not Natasha Stott Despoja or Brian Deegan.
Come on Phil, give us something to work with.
What industry/area are they known for? Acting, singing?
A Bonython?
That description would have (then) perfectly fitted Labor’s candidate for Boothby in 2004!
The most illustrious non-political name in Adelaide is Bradman, but in his unfortunate absence a Chappel would do. Greg is only 58.
Greg’s been a Queenslander for some decades however.
He’s also a Liberal voter.
Well that only leaves Bobby Helpmann and Bevan von Einem
I believe your secret is out on the 59-41 thread, Phil.
Nicole Cornes, perhaps?
I have to admit that I was thinking of big ‘family names’ in South Australian footy, and whilst I thought of Graham Cornes the idea of him running for Parliament struck me as ridiculous.
What does wife Nicole have to offer?
Can’t confim or deny. But Nicole Cornes has a weekly column in the Sunday Mail, she’s an attractive mother of two young children and she’s a mature age law student who regularly gets distinctions. Definitely not a union hack.
# Phil Robins Says:
April 28th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Can’t confim or deny. But Nicole Cornes has a weekly column in the Sunday Mail, she’s an attractive mother of two young children and she’s a mature age law student who regularly gets distinctions. Definitely not a union hack.
My wife is an attractive mature age student all of 29yo ( doing masters in primary health care ) regularly gets and has got distinctions and is not a union hack. To me its allot to offer but unlike Cornes my wifes not rich or married into fame.
“I’m sure there’s a good pack of IT-competent Greens around who could help you design a top-notch website. Good luck.”
Michael
This one http://mountdruitt.info/ was knocked up in a few minutes a few weeks ago
For the record the Greens vote in Mount Druitt has increased by 177% since 1999
“Nicole Cornes” – never heard of her, or her family.
They have in Adelaide.
Cornes are a legendary Aussie Rules family
Mr Speaker must be from nsw/qld….
Speaker- Graham cornes was the first coach of adelaide crows played for glenelg and north melbourne
His son Cain plays for Port Adelaide in the AFL
or is it Kane..
Chad and Kane Cornes both play for Port.
As for not being a union hack, Phil – certainly not. However, considering the quality of candidates being recruited by Labor around Australia (Dreyfus, Gray, Parke, Tinley, Combet, McKew, Daniels) and having read some of her articles… is this who SA Labor calls a ’star candidate’?
Nicole Cornes announced in her paper, the Sunday Mail today. Phil had good intelligence. Rudd also just mentioned the preselection on Insiders.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,21638676-5006301,00.html
dont thimk she will win boothby though
She’s voted for John Howard in the past? Interesting.
very interesting
Cornes hasn’t been picked so that she will win, she has been picked because she will get coverage due to her name that the Libs will have to match with paid advertising, I imagine Bill will be happy as a fair chunk of the Libs campaign funds will have to be shifted from Kingston to Boothby
I think that Nicole Cornes will be a very good fit for Boothby, especially in the aspirational Adelaide Hills and beachside suburbs. Let’s face it, Boothby has been a Liberal seat since 1949. Labor is hardly like to win it with a raging left-winger. The Cornes clan is better known than any other family in Adelaide. The name crops up every day in newspapers and on radio and TV. Nicole’s candidature is the front page splash in today’s Sunday Mail: NICOLE RUNS FOR LABOR. Inside is a sympathetic two-page spread. Husband Graham is a key member of 5AA’s high-rating daily sports programme and he has a rather philosophical sports column in The Advertiser every Saturday. He also has interests in the motor trade. Over the years he’s been mooted as a possible Liberal candidate but in the Sunday Mail today he says: “I had always voted Liberal until the last two elections but my allegiances have swung dramatically.” Graham’s sons Chad and Kane are stars with the Port Adelaide AFL team. Nicole says: “I voted for John Howard in the past but now I think it is time for a change.” Her weekly column in the Sunday Mail is certainly not heavyweight material but it does reflect the views of the “beautiful people” who are influential in Boothby.
another richy rich alp candidate
Well, it’s a matter of horses for courses, Bill. We now await with interest the announcement of an ALP candidate for Sturt. Meanwhile, here’s a look back to the days when Boothby was a Labor electorate:
Labor’s Egerton Lee Batchelor was elected the first member for Boothby in 1903. Batchelor had been the only Labor MHR elected in South Australia in the nation’s first federal election in 1901, when the whole state was one multi-member electorate. Before entering federal politics, Batchelor, a former railway engineer, had established his reputation as Minister of Education and Minister of Agriculture in the Holder government from December 1899 to 15 May 1901. The Labor Party supported his serving in that Liberal government so that the public could see that a Labor man could do the job. In 1903 Batchelor was offered the safe Labor seat of Hindmarsh but in the interests of the party opted for the riskier seat of Boothby, where he polled 55 per cent to defeat former premier and fellow foundation MHR Vaiben Solomon. In 1904, Prime Minister John Christian (Chris) Watson selected Batchelor as Minister for Home Affairs in the world’s first national Labor government. Batchelor was unopposed in Boothby in 1906 and served as Minister for External Affairs in the Fisher Labor government from 1908-10. He was easily re-elected in 1910 but died suddenly in 1911 and Boothby fell to the Liberals in a by-election that year.
Another Labor man, the German-born butcher George Dankel, won Boothby back in 1913 and retained it in 1914 but naturally, given his heritage, did not contest the wartime election of 1917, when the seat fell to the Nationalists.
Labor’s next victory in Boothby was in 1928 when the stone-mason John Lloyd Price – son of Tom Price, the first Labor man to be Premier of South Australia (1905-09) – scraped home by 84 votes. He boosted his margin in 1929 but then got caught up in the big Labor split over how to deal with the Great Depression. He joined the Independent Australia Party and held Boothby in 1931 as a candidate for the anti-Labor Emergency Committee. He was re-elected under the Liberal and Country League banner in 1934 and 1937 and as a United Australia Party member in 1940, dying in office in 1941.
Sir Archibald Price (no relation to J.L.Price) won the 1941 Boothby by-election for the UAP but was turfed out by Labor’s Tom Sheehy in the general election of 1943. Sheehy, a building contractor, trailed on primary votes but got over the line largely on the preferences of the popular Communist candidate, Dr Alan Finger. Sheehy improved his winning margin in 1946 but apparently did not like the subsequent redistribution and switched to the new seat of Kingston, which he lost narrowly in 1949. The Liberals won Boothby in 1949 and have held it ever since.
I’m noticing the ALP are pre-selecting a better range of people than in past Elections and better matching them with seats, they appear to be learning.
Boothsy will be a touch seat but only as in the ALP haven’t put the resources in that they look like they will this time.
A bit like the Liberals in Lindsay in 1996, but I’m not convinced the ALP can win this seat at this stage.
Cornes is the “Paris Hilton” candidate. Boothby isn’t an electorate full of idiots, so her candidacy means Southcott will enjoy a swing to him.
Nicole Cornes (unlike Paris Hilton) had humble beginnings and has achieved much that an aspirational electorate will recognize. Flinders Uni political analyst Haydon Manning says : “The Cornes name is so well known in SA it is a brand name. It might be enough to win the seat.”
comments on the Nicole Cornes Candidacy
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/comments/0,22638,21638676-5006301,00.html
Shes not a member of the ALP? thats a great way of picking candidates. Id hate to be in the Botthby branch and overlooked by a non member
Yes, but like Paris she is a gossiping ditz. No points.
Good move.
Boothby’s not a quintessential marginal. More of a typical Liberal seat.
Not unwinnable however: a quasi-celebrity candidate may just be the thing to tip this seat to Labor given the right conditions.
As for being a recent Labor convert, the ALP spin should be simple enough: “We need the votes of people who have previously voted for John Howard. It therefore makes perfect sense to stand at least one candidate who has previously voted for John Howard.”
I agree with David Walsh as far as to say Boothby is not ‘unwinnable’, and that the selection of someone of Cornes’ ilk is hardly surprising. I think the underlying theme of the ALP campaign has been that it’s time for a change, and that goes some way to reinforce the parties’ selection.
But seriously, the situation is typically ridiculous. Rudd’s been sold a political pup (see doorstop on ABC news for reference) by Foley and the state party who are becoming increasingly known for their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I mean this is as cruel as the current crop of reality tv. Shoving a naive, inexperienced outsider into the harsh reality of a campaign under the moniker of a serious challenger.
As Bill Weller mentioned, congratulations to her on earning a solid GPA while looking after a tot, but that doesn’t spell competency in this arena. It’d be nice if Rudd started being serious, gave us a candidate that lives in the electorate, is passionate about their beliefs and knows how to articulate her them in front of a camera.
* Yes bill, richy rich candidates is how we win richy rich seats. People in the Adelaide Hills are not going to vote for Fred Nurk of the Boilermakers Union (and yes I know Norm Foster won Sturt but that was 37 years ago). Unlike the Greens, the ALP is actually trying to win seats, and the choice of non-stereotypical candidates is a good way to do so. Like this colonel we are running apparently in Edn-Monaro, and McKew and Tinley.
* More broadly, this strategy creates a “bandwaggon effect” – everyone, even SAS colonels and former Liberal voters, are getting with the Ruddslide. This is clever politics folks. It worked very well in Victoria with Kirstie Marshall.
* Archibald Grenfell Price always used the given name Grenfell, and he wasn´t knighted til after he left politics, so he should be called Dr Grenfell Price in this context.
More on SA:
How do other blogsters feel that the ALP conference went? I realise that the commentariat is wistful for the good old days of union stoushes, but I suspect that, as a vehicle for launching the Rudd For The Lodge campaign, it served its purpose well.
I guess the next set piece is the budget, and it’s pretty crucial for both sides. Rudd’s reply will in reality be much more significant than the weekend just gone in the greater scheme of things. I think he still needs to reassure the great unwashed that he won’t send the countrty broke.
However, the budget is also the government’s last chance – if the people aren’t going to listen to you while you’re handing out wads of cash, it’s unlikely they’re going to at any other time.
Nicole Cornes has started shakily but she’s smart enough to improve rapidly. Mia Handshin, ten years a weekly columnist with The Advertiser, is more assured at this stage. Alexander Downer is carrying on about Labor’s opting for celebrity over substance. But wasn’t it the Liberals who selected the cyclist Hubert Opermann? The runner Pat Farmer? The gold medal shooter who failed to hit the target in Ballarat? The criticism used to be that Labor was picking party hacks instead of people with real life experience. You can’t win, it seems. Anyway, some outstanding candidates are flocking to Labor this time.
Hugo, will bribery work this time? I agree, if the Liberals don’t get a signifigant bounce in the polls from tax custs, they are stuffed!
According to today’s SMH: Greg Combet will get Charlton(N.S.W), Colonel Mike Kelly will get Labor preselection for Eden Monaro, Kevin Rudd wants a seat for George Williams(Academic and Constitutional Law expert) in N.S.W, and Julia Irwin will be another N.S.W MP to be dumped.
If the swing is on in SA, seats like Boothby and Sturt could be winnable.
At the very least, Labor would want to take Wakefield, Kingston and Makin off the Liberals.
IS it just me or does it bother anyone else here that a person being put up as a candidate of any ilk (and apparently a law student to boot) who apparently lives in South Australia can get away with saying that she voted for John Howard?
Is she enrolled to vote in Bennelong?
Ok, I know a great many people don’t differentiate but surely we could expect more of hopeful politicians (and law students who apparently garner the odd distinction)???
Or am I just crazy???
You can tell the Labor conference went well. The journalists are scathing of Rudd and Labor, particularly those who write for the Australian. It seems we have Labor versus business, political journalists and newspaper proprietors. Is this payback time and will it have any effect on the average person out there? I personally very much doubt it. Only political tragics like myself take any notice of this BS.
Just an aside, I managed to score a gig in the latest Newspoll survey. Anyone else been surveyed by any of the pollsters?
You’re a hero “scor(ing) a gig in the latest Newspoll survey”, Gary Bruce. I trust you answered the interviewer’s questions objectively and dispassionately.
I’ve never been surveyed by a polling company, but I worked for one for a few years.The one thing that I learnt is that responses as to how likely people are to change their minds are meaningless, while I was never allowed to try i was fairly certain that I could change at least a third of respondants votes with just a few comments
David Charles- actually that is the second time Newspoll have polled me. The last one was late last year I think. Most unusual to be polled twice I would have thought. David, of course I answered the interviewer’s questions objectively and dispassionately, just like you would have, oh and of course just like dovif would have.
*cough* China *cough* resources boom*
*cough* Kevins IR not very like the Accord era or before… In fact it is the Howard 97 model *cough*
So here goes the ON NOES HERE COME THE UNIONS from Howard and the Business Associations *cough* Unions *cough*
Union bosses dictating for the masses eh
Hendy.. Check
Ridout.. Check
So Dovif you are talking about the very short term construction costs and impacts. By that logic major infrastructure would always and only be built in a recession. Or have I missed something. The millions to build the technical colleges in marginal govt seats, producing and duplicating states services should not be happening either by your standard? Dreadfully irresponsible?
My understanding is that the current inflationary pressure (admittedly eased by bananas and petrol going down last quarter) is a result of insufficient investment, particularly in training and infrastructure, such that the economy reaches capacity constraints earlier than if the capacity had been appropriately expanded.
I don’t see how companies having to compete for labor is a terrible thing. Under worstchoices it is the only possible time employees get pay rises. And note retail workers still go backwards at this time so they are in for a really rough trot in a slow-down.
So if you are going to view this as dreadful you seem to be very uncomfortable with market forces and dreadfully uncomfortable with employees taking advantage of market forces (but I always expected worstchoices was a fully one way street).
But as a salute to my family (all of whom live in Stirling) thinking like that will see labor romping it home in Hasluck and Stirling and God willing Canning as well.
On another matter, I have met Colonel Mike Kelly, the next MP for Eden-Monaro, and heard him speak. He will be a dynamite candidate and a killer MP (puns fully intended). He is an exceptionally smart guy and tough as nails, and can speak about the Iraq debacle from extensive personal experience, unlike that great fraudulent ponce Downer, who wouldn´t know a gun from a swizzle-stick. Gary Nairn is a decent chap as Liberals go, but he can start dusting off his theodolite.
on 4 corners.
the Burke fiasco traversed both major WA parties.
basically they are BOTH corrupt.
Arse kicks all round are needed
I have never met Brown or Hoare, although I have spoken to Hoare maybe three times on the phone. I have nothing “personal” against them. My views on them are entirely political. Brown spent (from memory) 18 years in safe seats without making so much as a passing impression on the world, even as a (very junior) minister (Hawke made sure he never got anything important). My memory of him is mainly as a self-important blowhard. He then handed his seat on to his daughter, whose qualifications to be a federal MP are, shall we say, not immediately apparent. She has had three terms to demonstrate why she is occupying a prize safe seat, has failed to do so, and now is trotting out every victimhood line she can think of to stay on her paid vacation in Canberra for another term. Greg Combet is a vastly superior candidate – and I say that even though he is in the Left and I am a supporter of (although not actually a member of) the Right.
If the effect of “rank-and-file” preselections is to keep drones like Hoare and Irwin in safe seats, then that is an excellent argument for abolishing them. The fact is that Labor doesn´t really have a “rank and file” at all. Its branches are run by tiny cliques of factional fanatics, and are otherwise made up of pensioners, nostalgics and people with nothing better to do than go to branch meetings – which is quite an indictment on anybody. Union affiliation presents problems for Labor, to be sure, but at least the unions are real organisations that represent, however imperfectly, real people. Although, as I say, I favour primaries, which puts the power of selection in the hands of all Labor voters, I would MUCH rather have Labor candidates chosen by a junta of Bill Ludwig, Joe de Bruyn and Doug Cameron than by the “rank and file.”
Things are, I believe, much the same in the Liberal Party, except they don´t have the ballast that the unions give Labor to stop the fanatic cliques taking over, which is why they are in fact taking over.
Adam, I know quite a few people who are genuinely interested in politics and attend branch meetings, who aren’t in factional cliques or are people with nothing else in their lives. Are you saying that these people shouldn’t have a say in who the local candidate will be? Should factional organisers have most of the say? What, 10 odd people, who might not have any life outside organised (factional) politics, deciding who will be elected as a senator with all the footsoldiers who do have lives and contribute out of interest having no say?
As a side note I’m a fellow Stirling resident. My experience with the current member has been mixed (and somewhat less positive than with MacFarlane before him, who was very approachable) – he seems to be buried in a quagmire of spin and minders, and one never sees him in the electorate, he’s almost invisible apart from the bus seat ads and the “Keenan Report” (anyone checked out right.net.au’s expose on one article in there?). Any time I’ve enquired of his office about a matter (even just to find out what a government policy is) I’ve been left waiting months, and basically just got a non-answer from a minister with a cover note. Any of the “meet and greet” functions I’ve seen him at have been completely stage-managed from beginning to end by party minders. It’s sad, really – you’d expect better from a member sitting on just 2.0%. At this early stage I’ve already met Tinley and he seems an intelligent and dedicated person who can answer a question by himself, even if he’s somewhat to the right of myself politically. I feel almost bad supporting Labor given their woeful performance in state politics in WA, but in this seat with this candidate I would happily back this one over that one.