Comments on: Idle speculation: national conference edition

By: Evan

Evan — Tue, 08 May 2007 13:31:44 +0000

Will Howard and Costello get the predicted poll bounce from the budget?
If tax cut bribery doesn’t significantly narrow Rudd’s poll lead, the Libs are stuffed.

By: anonymousie

anonymousie — Tue, 08 May 2007 12:41:03 +0000

Peter Botsman had a list about two years ago. It’s changed a little since then.

By: jasmine_Anadyr

jasmine_Anadyr — Tue, 08 May 2007 10:41:14 +0000

Wouldn’t you write to the factional convenor / president / secretary and to remain accurate repeat monthy?

By: Alex Turvey

Alex Turvey — Tue, 08 May 2007 10:30:10 +0000

I am sorry – this is probably the wrong place for this – BUT is anyone able to say where one can get an authoritive list of which faction/sub-faction etc of the ALP, members of the NSW Legislative Assembly belong to ?

By: bill weller

bill weller — Tue, 08 May 2007 10:24:19 +0000

interesting to see what the budget does to the Libs standing. I still get the feeling Howard will fall over the line.

By: Simon Howson

Simon Howson — Tue, 08 May 2007 09:56:16 +0000

I beleive the ALP need at least 51.3% 2 party prefered. This would give them 75 seats on a uniform swing. However the last of those seats is Bennelong, which I don’t think Howard will lose. So in practice they would need a uniform 2PP vote of 52.1%. But this doesn’t really bare relation to practice. I think there will be a swing, but it needs to happen in the right places for the government to fall. Look what happened in 1990.

By: bill weller

bill weller — Tue, 08 May 2007 08:26:27 +0000

The ALP is at 57-43 at what stage will it be a close election? 54 -46 ? can anyone tell me what the minimum 2pp vote will get the ALP over the line. That if all ALP marginals stay ALP and the swing is uniform in the marginals needed

By: Peter Stephens

Peter Stephens — Tue, 08 May 2007 05:06:03 +0000

Is it almost time for “Idle Speculation: the Budget edition”?

By: Belowra Boy

Belowra Boy — Tue, 08 May 2007 03:52:06 +0000

Any discussion of deadwood in parliament has to mention Alby Schultz, he is too dead to use as firewood!
Wilson Tuckey would also get a mention and Annette Ellis from Canberra, who has health problems and would benefit the party enormously by giving up her ultra safe seat for a talented up and comer.

I believe that all parties should be compelled to cull 10% of members at each election. I know it would never happen, but it’s a great fantasy.

By: jasmine_Anadyr

jasmine_Anadyr — Tue, 08 May 2007 01:11:04 +0000

In relation to Julie Bishop your definition of quite rapidly and mine Adam are clearly quite different. She was held back for years as a Costello backer wasn’t she? I would compare her to Garrett and Turnbull, favorably, and they were a week or two more preferred weren’t they? I would do the maths but I can’t be bothered.

You can’t oppose affirmative action using as the sole base for your opposition the stupidy of the current male dominated cultures and systems that put in candidates that are just as bad as the kind of male candidates they replaced. If anything it is evidence for additional affirmative action not less.

And the whingy whiney labor boys I know to have been deprived by affirmative action (and there are that many there isn’t as much affirmative action as might be hoped for) are even stronger evidence of how good it has done for Labor. Mr Mundine would make a fantastic candidate and I hope he is found a seat.

I go back to my example of affirmative action, and that is a boys club partnership I had the honor of working for, they wouldn’t have in a million years had affirmative action into the partner ranks, but I sat in recruitment meeting after recruitment meeting where the intake was affirmatively actioned – to save the boys who were too lazy or too stupid to do as well at uni. Depending on the sophistication of the partner the excuse went from ‘maintaining a balance’ at the sophisticated end, to ’she will just leave us and have babies’ at the crude end.

I am glad I stumbled across that show last night … clearly some of you need to look for the repeat on ABC 2.