Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: June 2007

WA redistributed

The draft boundaries for the one-vote one-value electoral redistribution in Western Australia have been unveiled. The table below lists Antony Green’s calculations of the new margins for each seat, along with its most likely contestant at the next election. As you can see, it’s been a pretty good day for the Western Australian ALP. On [...]

Galaxy Senate poll

GetUp!, a self-styled “new independent political movement to build a progressive Australia”, has commissioned the right-wing shills* at Galaxy Research to conduct a poll of Senate voting intentions. Conducted the weekend before last from a sample of 1100 “adults 16+”, the poll has Labor on 38 per cent compared with its 2004 Senate result of [...]

Steady as she goes

Roy Morgan has released results from a face-to-face survey of 1723 respondents conducted over the past two weekends, which has Labor’s primary vote down from 51 per cent to 48 per cent from the previous such poll a fortnight ago (which had only 909 respondents) and the Coalition’s down from 38 per cent to 37 [...]

Read all about it

Those with an interest in the state of Australian democracy could do a lot worse than to subscribe to the Democratic Audit of Australia’s email list, which offers electoral news along with updates of the Audit’s own activities. Talking points from the latest edition:
• Mumble man Peter Brent and Simon Jackman of Stanford University crunch [...]

Ongoing poll bonanza

A recent flurry of opinion polling today reaches a climax with results from ACNielsen and, unexpectedly, Newspoll, which normally reports on Tuesday. The former rains on the recent Coalition polling parade somewhat with a survey of 1403 voters showing no change in the primary vote situation from last month: Labor on 48 per cent, Coalition [...]

Map of Tassie

Better results for Labor in a poll today in Launceston’s Sunday Examiner by EMRS, who surveyed 200 voters in each of Tasmania’s five seats (hat tip to Stuart in comments). The small samples mean that the individual results can be taken with a grain of salt, but the overall picture gels with last week’s assessment [...]

The Right stuff

Andrew Landeryou reports that Alex Hawke, 29-year-old warlord of the Christian Right, has had a landslide win in today’s Liberal preselection for Mitchell. Sitting member Alan Cadman, a man old enough to be Hawke’s grandfather, withdrew yesterday rather than face a defeat everyone knew to be inevitable.
Hawke has worked in the past for federal MPs [...]

And now Morgan

We still need Newspoll to seal the deal, but it does seem that normality has returned to the opinion poll landscape: we are seeing Labor with slight to moderate leads plus a few per cent extra from Roy Morgan, just like old times. As it does each Friday, Morgan has published a telephone survey from [...]

Sunrise in the west

More good news for the Howard government from Patterson Market Research’s Westpoll, published in today’s West Australian. Surveys of three marginal seats, each from a sample of more than 400, show the Liberals set to maintain their tenuous hold on Stirling and Hasluck (which were won from Labor in 2004 with respective margins of 2.0 [...]

Other stuff

In order to spread the comments load, I have hived off those parts of Idle Speculation relating to individual seats from the poll results summary:
• The Liberals’ preselection vote for the blue-ribbon north Sydney seat of Mitchell will be held on Saturday. Sixty-nine year old incumbent Alan Cadman is running again, but only the most [...]