Comments on: Other stuff

By: Peter Fuller

Peter Fuller — Sun, 17 Jun 2007 14:47:47 +0000

John,
I agree, it’s very unlikely to impact on the election outcome. My guesstimate was purely in the context of this thread, i.e. Tuesday’s Newspoll.

By: John

John — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 07:25:32 +0000

Peter Fuller,

It may affect the next poll but come election day do you really think voters will remember it? It’s a non-issue.

By: Peter Fuller

Peter Fuller — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 05:49:44 +0000

I think Newspoll will be 58-42 Labor’s way. I expect some reaction to the Kirribilli House budget buffet.

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 04:13:15 +0000

Martin B – to be fair to Edward he was only commenting on the next Newspoll. Noone believes such high figures for Labor will be achieved next election. The big question is what will Labor’s solid primary vote will be by the time the election comes around. I’m guessing 46/47, which will be more than enough for it to win the next election.

By: Martin B

Martin B — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 02:17:16 +0000

“Iâ€™m not quite sure about voluntary voting encouraging extremism.”

I think the point is that in voluntary systems there is an increased focus on mobilising your committed voters (who include some extremists) and correspondingly less focus on appealing to the uncommitted centre, who are more likely to just stay home in the middle of a confusing mud-fest. An example is the importance of appealing to the anti-abortion anti-evolution christian right for Republican candidates.

“I donâ€™t see how those pushing the â€œyou should already be correctly enrolledâ€ line can credibly argue that ordinary citizens should be more politically engaged than political parties.”

This is the same government that argues with a straight face that collective bargaining is important for small business, but unimportant for workers…

“Guess weâ€™ll all be pretty silly if its 59:41″

If the election ends up with a 2PP vote of 59/41 the Liberal Party will be dead as an effective organization and there won’t be enough chickens in the country to produce eggs for the faces of the mainstream media *and* the blogosphere…

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 02:11:59 +0000

57 – 43 – interestingly, most don’t seem to agree with Galaxy. Is ACNeilsen definitely due this week?
Hartcher, to me, always comes across as another cheerleader for the coalition. I think journalists would be on AWA’s wouldn’t they? Boy that hip pocket nerve must be shaking.

By: Edward StJohn

Edward StJohn — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 01:59:59 +0000

Interesting of 7 posts no one thinks the 2PP will stay at or near 60:40 its just a question of the degree it seems.

Guess we’ll all be pretty silly if its 59:41

By: Blacklight

Blacklight — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 01:49:19 +0000

ill say 55-45

there..all bases covered?

heh

By: Matt D

Matt D — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 01:49:07 +0000

I’ll go with Ed St John, 54-46.

I now think the election will end up being 50-50 with the ALP falling about six seats short.

By: Evan

Evan — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 01:47:09 +0000

According to Peter Hartcher in today’s SMH, the ALP ought to pack up and go home now: the economy will win Howard the election! Gee Pete, maybe I shouldn’t bother voting if it’s such a fait accompli.
Seriously, Rudd, Swan and co will need a very credible economic/tax policy, and some concessions to business on Industrial Relations. If that means Gillard and the union hacks of the ALP kick up a stink, so be it.
Newspoll prediction: ALP:55, Coalition: 45