A recent flurry of opinion polling today reaches a climax with results from ACNielsen and, unexpectedly, Newspoll, which normally reports on Tuesday. The former rains on the recent Coalition polling parade somewhat with a survey of 1403 voters showing no change in the primary vote situation from last month: Labor on 48 per cent, Coalition on 39 per cent. Nonetheless, the two-party result has narrowed just slightly, from 58-42 to 57-43, while Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister lead is down from 51-43 to 48-42. Bryan Palmer’s newly updated graphs can be viewed here.
Newspoll offers a similar result, with Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred. However, it’s better news for the Coalition in relative terms – the previous Newspoll three weeks ago had Labor with a quirky-looking lead of 60-40. The Coalition primary vote is up from 35 per cent to 39 per cent; Labor’s is down from 52 per cent to 46 per cent; Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister lead is down from 47-38 to 46-40.
430 Comments
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Can we please not discuss State issues here – I am not interested nor do I come from the state in question but, it is filling up the whole blogg and makes annoying to come here.
Does anyone understand STROP’s posts? I certainly don’t.
Adam , Would that be because he is attacking your beloved ALP?
# Edward StJohn Says:
June 21st, 2007 at 9:22 am
Too late Evan, he’s locked in, He cannot take this risk before the election I think. Different story if he loses – it†be on for young and old in the ALP
Thats where the ALP will fragment. You cant have two parties that are very similar. The left wont stay in a dying party ( if the ALP looses which i believe they will ) Without the Unions the ALP cannot win and it seems with them they cant either.
Topics in my workplace today
1. Pollies pay rises and admiration for Parnell , Such , Xenophon , Brown on their stance
2. Union trouble for the ALP
No Bill, it’s probably because, like me, he finds them incomprehensible.
Isn’t it great though, that on a blog like this you can chose what you wish to read, ignoring the rest.
I suggest Kina might care to adopt my stragedy rather than get frustrated over the boring or the irrelevant.
The name of the poster is usually a good guide after the first post.
Is he? I have no idea what he is doing.
Bill, while you are here:
* The Greens WA website contains no mention of your Senate candidate Scott Ludlum, and I cannot find a photo of him anywhere. My email to the Greens WA has not been answered.
* The Vic Greens website contains nothing about the federal election or your candidate Richard di Natale.
* The NSW Greens website hasa general “vote Green in the Senate” blurb but nothing about Kerry Nettle.
* Only the Qld, SA, Tas and ACT websites even mention their lead Senate candidates.
* None of the state websites give any info on House of Reps candidates such as your goodself.
* I realise the Greens are not a wealthy party, but one of the good things about websites is they are relatively cheap, and surely the Greens have lots of young techy volunteers.
* The ALP has a full list of all its candidates, most with photos and biographies, at its website. So do the Qld and Vic Liberals.
Adam I just dont understand why they are so slow organizing themselves. I have been tweaking the electorate since the State election ( didnt have pre-selection at that time but was busy with YR@W as a Greens official and AMWU delegate) and it seems everyone else is still asleep in the other states.
Fulvio Sammut Says:
June 21st, 2007 at 7:29 pm
The name of the poster is usually a good guide after the first post.
Yes it is and their seems to be an influx of strange ones in here lately
Then may I suggest, in the nicest possible way, that you spend less time in premature obituaries for the ALP, and more time on getting your colleagues to get themselves in gear? You may not agree with my view that the Greens are going to be struggling this year, but I’m sure you will agree that Senate seats are not going to just fall into the Greens’ laps. The online community, which is growing exponentially, is surely a key Green constituency. I suspect the WA Greens at least are too furry to understand this.
Adam Says:
June 21st, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Does anyone understand STROP’s posts? I certainly don’t
I dont see anything difficult to understand about what I am posting, but Im happy to (a) put it in plainer language or (b) take my keyboard elsewhere if the general consensus is Im missing the point of this blogpace.
bill weller Says:
June 21st, 2007 at 7:14 pm
Adam , Would that be because he is attacking your beloved ALP?
Nope Bill, Im actually a commie leftie who votes ALP or donkey but Im not one-eyed.
Fulvio Sammut Says:
June 21st, 2007 at 7:29 pm
No Bill, it’s probably because, like me, he finds them incomprehensible.
Ill try to make my posts more comprehensible in future-no problem. You can ignore my posts, hell i would most of the time.
Strop
Vive la difference.
And yes i understand your posts
oh shoosh
tampa 2007 has happened
its over
Am I missing something?
NT ’state of emergency’
enter ‘the rabbit’
Yes. Tampa II … sigh
Kina,
It doesn’t happen that often. You’ve appeared at just one of the few occasions. Just skip what you don’t want to read. You’ll find there’ll be a few non-state posts you might choose to skip too.
Adam: Here’s some information about the WA Greens Senate Candidate to help you out:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_shakespeare_of_the_greens/
Strop: I understand you. Stick around and write write write.
PS. When I say it doesn’t happen that often, I mean on federal politics threads. State issues get discussed a lot on state election threads.
I spend a bit of time looking at blogs and enjoying the hyped-up language that many people use on them. I am particularly entertained by the Liberals’ anti-union campaign and by The Australian’s anti-Left campaign. But those playing this game need good intelligence. The ironies of history are a wonder to behold. It’s a bit hard to run a campaign against the “Left†when you don’t know who they are. The story, “PM delivers a lesson on history for schools†(The Australian, 21/6/2007), shows John Howard giving a history award to a well-known La Trobe University “Maoist†of old (for writing a book on democracy!). What would Julie Bishop think? I hope Kevin Rudd or Stephen Smith raises the matter in Parliament.
which old Maoist was this?
Rudd has endorsed the NT ’state of emergency’. Rabbit neutralised.
Blacklight- Are you suggesting the NT ‘State of Emergency’ issue is going to be “the rabbit” Mr Howard has pulled out his political hat to win the 2007 Federal Election ? I dont imagine Indigenous issues will rate that highly, “sorry”.
nothing to do with indigenous issues..all to do with ‘leadership’ and strutting
I do hope you are right STROP
Adam:
Picture of Scott Ludlam Greens WA Candidate in here:
http://members.iinet.net.au/~greenswa/gi/20070327GI.pdf
oh and:
“THE Federal Government has released a 200-page draft bill of its controversial access card just hours before Parliament took a six-week break for winter.
Human Services Minister Chris Ellison will give the community two months to comment on the draft legislation, which was released late today.
It almost guarantees that the Government won’t introduce the contentious new card before the next federal election, due to be held in October or November.”
Adam,
Peter Cochrane. He could have reformed, of curse. We don’t all stay true to our original beliefs like me.
Blacklight – The NT Rabbit will be forgotten quicker than Howard’s water initiative, with as much effect on the voters.
Thanks, but it’s a pdf and I cannot use the photo.
Maybe he can join Vic Zbar and I in “Ex-Maoists for a Right-wing Labor Government.” Albert Langer supported the Iraq War of course but he’s not quite ready to cross over yet.
Vic Zbar, there’s a blast from the past! Barry York, another LaTrobe Maoist, also supported the Iraq War on the grounds – I kid you not – that it’s right to rebel. I’ll get his letter to the editor when I have more time.
Adam, if the only problem with the photo is that it’s in a PDF, tools to extract images from PDFs are standard with Linux. I can email you the image if you want.
1. Adam/Bill
The Greens do seem to be struggling a bit since the last election, though we know minor party polling is notoriously inaccurate. Of course the Greens are about far more than the environment, but is a key platform that has become (tokenistically) mainstreamed by the duopoly(tics). Still think Bob will come up with his own “Common Bilby” out of his Akubra and galvanise sleeping Greens and sympathisers towards a common cause. He’s good at it.
2. The indigenous issue is of serious concern and nothing is new, though the extent of it just shows how we have all failed these people. No party has done the right thing and most of us (myself included) are in the 93% who live in our cities and rarely spare a thought and never visit these places. It does grieve me to see what mankind can do to itself whilst others look on.
I don’t even feel like debating politically on this one, demographically, i guess a lot of us here are fathers with kids (mine are young). We do tend to elevate our “rights and principles” above all else, even if they are not working. I must admit, for the life of me, I can’t see why we defend our “right” to pornography so vehemently. This latest admission is tantamount to saying that grog and porn are causative in this social degradation. I also find it curious that the ACT has the “second most relaxed laws” about porn and blood alcohol limits of 0.08 (are they still, Canberrans?).
Prohibition doesn’t change human nature but naiive (and mostly unchallenged) humanist dogma that says free people enshrined with their rights will naturally “fix themselves” has certainly not helped the Aboriginal people of our nation. Noel Pearson is a good man, with a clear head and a good heart. I hope more people will listen to him, the PM included.
I agree that, for want of a better term, “indigenous paedophilia” was an attempt at the wedge. The PMs “decisive action” (after 11 years) has all the qualities that appeal to the remaining Hansonites. However, it has failed, at least so far.
Howard’s disappointment when Rudd gave his full support in Parliament was palpable. The obvious questions of individual rights, state rights and paternalistic indigenous policy seem to have been ignored by all sections of Labor, presumably to ensure the greater good.
Only Bob Brown has raised these issues – as has been said before – Labor now outsources its left wing to the Greens.
I imagine I speak for many on the right wing of Labor when I say I support Brough’s tough policies on indigenous affairs 100% and only wonder why we put up with the failed policies of lefty ministers like Hand and Tickner for so long. Separatism has utterly failed, and now it’s full steam back to Paul Hasluck and integration. I would (a) ban alcohol sales to all indigenous people in the NT, Cape York and the Kimberley (b) remove children at risk from dysfunctional families on a two-strikes-and-you-lose-em basis (c) enforce primary education in English for all indigenous kids. Goodbye stolen generation, hello Rescued Generation.
Adam: I’ve taken the liberty of extracting the photo from the pdf for you. Resolution was better than expected.
Download from here:
http://www.upperhouse.info/wagrns.jpg
Many thanks
Rudd can’t say this and the State Premiers have been gutless so far so here is my response to Adam, and I don’t know about Bill’s two labor parties but for laughs while I know I am not state convenor of my faction and cannot and do not speak for anyone in the right it is where I am, like Adam. So discussion between brothers ((and sister)) at arms.
Adam
(a) ban alcohol sales to all indigenous people in the NT, Cape York and the Kimberley
Both prohibition and apartheid have a less than glorious history. Please explain in detail how and why they will work in anyway other than for the short term electoral glory of Howard? (And I’m in the wedge that wont work camp as explained above).
(b) remove children at risk from dysfunctional families on a two-strikes-and-you-lose-em basis
Agree 100% – but we tried this for a chunk of decades, including in my life time, so quite recently, not a big success, why will going back to a failed policy work this time?
(c) enforce primary education in English for all indigenous kids.
Please expand on ‘force’. Do we jail the kids or their parents or both when Howard realises that primary education isn’t currently voluntary already; and that there is both a problem and some genuine hurdles here. If there were no hurdles the Whitlam Government would have solved most of the problems and the Hawke / Keating Govts would have mopped up any outstanding issues.
I don’t know Adam, I know we have had disagreements before, but really you believe Howard has the answer and is the man with the solutions for this national crisis? It hasn’t occured to you that State and Federal Governments, unlike Howard over the last 11 years, have had genuine people who wanted to solve this issue?
Now Howard is right, they have failed, but not because it is an easy fix as Howard paints, it is largely in the too hard basket, because without massive resources it is too hard.
Adam,
I too support the measures that have been announced.
I would like to see, in addition, some positive measures like additional funding for housing for these communities.
There’s a big palm island aboriginal protest scheduled for lunchtime in Brisbane today. The new policies might cause an already angry crowd to get even angrier.
I’ll wander down and check it out while I grab lunch. (I work in a skyscaper in the city). If anything interesting is happening I’ll let you guys know.
I’ve already said too much for silent jas but none of the Howard solutions are massive resources; they are Hansonesque popular gimicks.
Something decisive has had to be done about the appalling lives many aborigines lead. Whether John Howard is right in each particular, I do not know, but I have never believed that he is the devil incarnate and I do believe that even the most cynical of politicians can have a genuine human dimension. In any case, politically the reaction he is getting from some will help him. I heard Bob Brown on TV last night call the government’s actions “racistâ€. We have the belief that he is appealing to the Hansonites expressed here. What better way to look mainstream than have all the usual suspects attack you! Mr Howard knows exactly which buttons to press to get a reaction from the “Leftâ€, which never fails to help him win votes. I’ve said it before: John Howard cannot beat Kevin Rudd, but the Left can.
Jasmine
Prohibition and apartheid: Indigenous people are facing extinction in one generation at the hands of their own social pathologies unless radical steps are taken. They cannot solve these problems themselves, and most of their self-appointed, corrupt and incompetent “leadership” refuses even to try, focussing on easy symbolic grievances instead. This is a race-based crisis and requires race-based solutions. In that sense I’m not afraid of “apartheid.” Yes prohibition has a sorry history but alcoholism is at the root of the indigenous social breakdown and since it isn’t possible to put 200,000 people into rehab tackling supply seems the only alternative. It can’t be enforced 100% but even 75% would be a big improvement.
Child removal: The previous policy didn’t fail, it was just abandoned. The aim of that policy was to “breed out” Aboriginality by placing the kids in white-run institutions or with white families. In its own terms it was a success – thousands of Indigenous kids were indeed removed from Indigenous society. The aim of removal now will be to rescue kids from dysfunctional families and communities where they are at acute danger of being beaten, raped and killed, and where they are being in turn rendered dysfunctional. I would place them with approved functional Indigenous families (of which there are many) or in Indigenous run institutions.
Enforce primary education: kids not in school would be removed as per (b)
Howard: I’m not interested in discussing this in party-political terms. This issue of such urgency I will support anyone who is doing the necessary. At the moment it’s Brough. “Genuine people who want to solve this issue” is not good enough. They have to be willing to ignore Pat Dodson and Lowitja O’Donohue etc and do what needs to be done.
Well Mr Howard has dissapointed the Miles Franklin winner.
“The winner of the prestigious Miles Franklin literary award says the Federal Government’s planned intervention in Northern Territory Aboriginal communities is a “sledgehammer” approach.
Last night author Alexis Wright was awarded this year’s Miles Franklin award for her novel Carpentaria set in traditional lands in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
A member of the Waanyi Nation, Wright says the Federal Government has ignored the recommendation of Indigenous conventions in the Territory, and is instead planning to impose its will on the people…….”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/22/1958723.htm
Chris, I agree Howard is not the devil incarnate…he’s just got the franchise for Australia.
I have it on good authority that before the 1996 election the devil appeared in Howard’s office and made a deal with him. He said “I’ll give you the PM’s chair, if you will give me your soul and the soul’s of you family for eternity.” Howard thought about this for a while before replying “OK, but what’s the catch?”
Oakeshott said “Only Bob Brown has raised these issues – as has been said before – Labor now outsources its left wing to the Greens.” Haha good one
Chris, I’m far from from being a Howard fan but believe he is doing the right thing here and so does Rudd and Labor. The political heat has already been neutalised. Brown doesn’t speak for Labor. Brown will be seen as out of touch and irrelevant by most on this as he is already on other issues. Also, for people to go running back to Howard fear has to be involved. I can’t see any fear element in this.
If Howard is on the nose, as I believe he is, this initiative will have a news shelf life of 3 or 4 days at best and other defining issues will dominate as usual.
Rob,
When I first heard that joke, it was about a film producer.
Gary,
I basically agree, but getting slagged off by the usual suspects never did John Howard any harm.
Brown is welcome to the 10% or so of the electorate who are “left” in any meaningful sense. And as a niche party, that Greens can achieve their objective (winning Senate seats) best by occupying the far corner of politics where they have no competition. Labor’s objective is to win a federal election by getting (at least) 50% of the 2PV. This will not be done by chasing a 10% minority up its tree – indeed that would be totally counter-productive, because the 90% who don’t vote Green actively dislike them. Labor needs to occupy the broad centre, as Rudd understands very well. (And the further to the right the Libs allow people like Alex Hawke to drag them, the easier that becomes.)
Incidentally, let’s open a book on the size of the 2-party swing to Labor in Mitchell, shall we? The current national Lib majority is 20.7%
10% anyone?
oops “national” = “notional”
Morgan 57.5/42.5 TPP
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4180/
I think Hawke would be rather representative of his community. Despite all the “extreme” tags I don’t think he’s any more conservative than the Prime Minister. He’s just a world away from his wet young Lib comrades.
No large swing either way. Certainly less than 5%.
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