Comments on: Galaxy Senate poll

By: Ronny

Ronny — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 09:04:24 +0000

Get ready for Pauline. The media has neglected her popularity with voters. Her Immigration policy is the reason why she will win a senate seat.
Why have Mr. Rudd and Mr. Howard neglected to tell voters where they stand on Immigration

By: Dario

Dario — Fri, 06 Jul 2007 03:46:10 +0000

No, the Morgan poll is now out

url="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/504"]http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/504[url

By: James J

James J — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 08:48:30 +0000

Phil: Morgan seem to have returned to their normal 2 week polling cycle. Should be one next Friday.

By: Adam

Adam — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 07:32:24 +0000

Well, I have explained about ten times why I don’t agree with that view, so I won’t bore everyone by doing so again.

I do agree that, on present polling, the Coalition would struggle to get three quotas in every state except WA. But I think their vote will improve by election day. They will also get preferences from various minor right-wing parties. But even if the Coalition falls short of three quotas, are they going to direct their surplus to the Greens? I doubt it. The beneficiary could be Family First, or even the Democrats if they can scrape up a reasonable primary vote.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 05:57:56 +0000

Adam, the problem with your argument is that you’re assuming that the Coalition will poll 43% in each state. Even if we recognise a certain degree of inaccuracy of Senate polls, there is still a big gap between 35% and 43%. If the Coalition polled, say, 40%, it would be enough in some states (because the vote would not be uniform) but in others it would not.

A 10% vote would be a very good result for the Greens and would be enough to at least increase the Greens representation in the Senate. Maybe I should have been more careful in my words in my last email. 10% may not be enough to guarantee six seats, but it would put us in a good position to win six spots and could be achieved from that position.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 04:03:10 +0000

I couldn’t see Pat Farmer running as an independent. He’s popular, but he’s never struck me as someone with much political savvy. I’ve also been hearing more and more people talking about him not being a particularly active or responsive local member, and in the crunch he probably wouldn’t have enough support to win in a 3-way race.

By: Phil Robins

Phil Robins — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 02:52:13 +0000

What happened to Morgan this week?

By: oakeshott country

oakeshott country — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 02:34:02 +0000

The most viewed story in the SMH today is the record number of repossessions and mortgagee sales in the west and south-west of Sydney. If the election is going to be all about the economy, then I suspect that this is the aspect of the economy which will have the greatest influence

By: blackburnpseph

blackburnpseph — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 00:26:05 +0000

It is now hypthetical of course as Pat Farmer has been reselected, but could Pat Farmer made a decent run at being an independent?

Agree with Ben above on the stupidity of the NSW Liberal right, to use an old fashioned expression – someone should bang their heads together until they see sense!!

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 29 Jun 2007 12:45:27 +0000

As much as a disaster Charlie Lynn would be for Macarthur, his preselection would probably have moved the seat back into the marginal seat columns. It’s a smart move by the NSW Liberal Party, and makes me wonder about how out of touch the Right and the local Liberals are. Pat Farmer first ran for Macarthur when it was notionally Labor in 2001, and has pushed it out of range for the ALP, mainly due to his popularity. I would expect if he got rolled for preselection the Liberals would lose his personal vote and face a backlash for kicking him out, enough to allow a good Labor candidate to win.