Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: July 2007

Seat of the week: Parramatta

With the Poll Bludger’s threadbare federal election guide nearing completion (to be fleshed out further in coming months as much as time permits), the time has come to reactivate the dormant Seat of the Week series. We return with the seat of Parramatta, where Labor member Julie Owens’ 0.8 per cent margin has turned into [...]

Galaxy: 54-46

As reported in various News Limited papers, a Galaxy poll conducted over the weekend shows Labor suffering a 2 per cent drop in the primary vote since the previous poll four weeks ago, and a slight narrowing of their two-party lead. Curiously, Galaxy’s figure of 10 per cent for the Greens is at least double [...]

Greatorex by-election live

7.44pm. Sadadeen booth now in, and CLP candidate Matt Conlan is home and hosed with 53.6 per cent of the primary vote. Paul Herrick now leads the Labor candidate 20.3 per cent to 16.5 per cent, while the Greens got a boost from Sadadeen to finish on 9.6 per cent, still down on 10.7 per [...]

Kingston and Wakefield

The Adelaide Advertiser has published a poll of federal voting intention in the marginal seats of Kingston and Wakefield, showing Labor with respective leads of 57-43 and 58-42. A similar poll published in January had Labor’s lead in Kingston at 56-44. Labor lost both Kingston and Wakefield at the 2004 election: Kingston by 119 votes [...]

Victoria and Albert (Park)

A black swan day in Victorian politics, with the wholly unheralded news that Premier Steve Bracks and Deputy Premier John Thwaites are calling it a day. Whither the Victorian government? Not my concern (not until 2010, anyway). What matters here is that two by-elections will soon be upon us. The Liberals could be forgiven for [...]

Gorgeous George

The previous thread on Tuesday’s Newspoll result took a turn to matters constitutional. What’s it all about? Beats the hell out of me. The important thing is that esteemed constitutional authority George Williams has put his two cents in, and anything he has to say deserves a better fate than delayed moderation and position 484 [...]

Morgan: 59-41

Today’s Roy Morgan phone poll of 572 voters has Labor leading 59-41 – a 1.5 per cent shift in Labor’s favour from the last phone poll two weeks ago, which complicates the picture presented by last week’s face-to-face poll showing a shift back to the Coalition. Respondents were asked how they would vote if alternative [...]

A by-election called Alice: form guide

The tea leaves will not be easy to read, but tomorrow’s Northern Territory by-election for the Alice Springs seat of Greatorex might be of broader interest as a test of the federal government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities. Here as elsewhere in Alice Springs, voters who were happy to back Labor at federal level have traditionally [...]

Crikey election bonanza

At the risk of turning this site into Amazon.com, a plug is in order for Crikey’s multi-media election blitz. Readers are invited to inspect my own contribution to the project at the Crikey website: 33 sets of marginal seat maps displaying booth-level two-party and swing results from 2004, as previewed earlier on this site’s long-lost [...]

Green is good

Gasp in awe at Antony Green’s gargantuan online compendium of New South Wales election results, the product of many months’ labour in conjunction with the state’s Department of Lands. Featured are district-level results going right back to the very beginning (1856), including all by-elections. What a Poll Bludger wouldn’t give for such a resource in [...]