Comments on: Morgan: 59-41

By: STROP

STROP — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 21:40:07 +0000

Blacklight Says:

July 9th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
actually,

http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/06/03/1996-v-2007-similarities-and-differences/

Read your assessment Blacklight (above); brilliant !! Well done.

By: Martin B

Martin B — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 00:57:17 +0000

“government has not had any major scandals”

No major scandals that have had an immediate dramatic effect in the polls. However there have been plenty of scandals alright: WMD, children overboard, Reith’s phonecard, Rau & Solon, Hicks, AWB, Santoro’s shares. Do I need to go on?

It’s possible that these are all water under the bridge and will no longer be on people’s mind when they vote, in which case the govt might claw back to a victory.

However it’s also possible that while voters could forgive any individual one of these, they can see the accumulated baggage of these piled on the govt’s shoulders, in which case the govt are probably dead men walking.

By: Pseph

Pseph — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 22:01:15 +0000

Yay I was right on two counts… 1) Dennis’ headline in the Oz would focus on the preferred PM poll and 2) the Oz would do a second poll which it new the Gov’t would do well (indigenous policy for the NT) in to mask the bad news arising from the voting intentions. Whatever spin and gloss the Oz tries, it can’t eclipse yet another round of shocking news for the Gov’t.

By: paisley2436

paisley2436 — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:46:20 +0000

Further to above, don’t write off foreign policy blunders as an electoral issue. It’s not just the economy stupid!

By: paisley2436

paisley2436 — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:42:20 +0000

Considering poll numbers etc things are very quiet here in a so-called marginal (Boothby SA). The local member has no profile here whatsoever. . . maybe he knows something i don’t. Still things must look pretty good ALP wise in SA, no major stuff ups re the solidly entrenched ALP govt, ineffectual opposition, maybe more seats will fall here than predicted. Apart from the upset of Bill Weller winning Kingston, don’t write labor off in Mayo. Good riddance Alex!

By: Kina

Kina — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 15:28:56 +0000

The Newspoll has TPP 56/44 The Morgan Phone poll 59/41 [on the back of a face to face of 59/41 covering the previous two weeks] and as they have previously noted the phone poll gives a lower labor figure by at least one point. It would appear then that the Morgan should be 60/40.

It is interesting to view the Newspoll 56/44 against that. We shouldnt assume that the lower figure is the correct one. Morgan could well be right [it got the primary right last election and picked the State election primaries] in which case we have had a consistent 58/59 – 41 TPP

I know why. People are dead scared that the Howard govt will get back in and are making sure by not changing their vote to balance things up like they normally would. Howard should go to stop this phenomena. :]

By: Just Me

Just Me — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 14:04:56 +0000

Edward StJohn Says:
“I hear on the ABC the first child sex arrest has happened in the NT.”

Are you trying to claim that this is the first one ever? Or that this particular one is due to Howard’s ‘intervention’?

By: C-Woo

C-Woo — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 13:57:50 +0000

ELECTION UPDATE

This poll is good from a Labor supporters point of view. It’s more realistic. Howard though is in a kind of position where he is in control now.

By: Adam

Adam — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 13:38:53 +0000

Edward’s loopy conspiracy theory also requires us to believe that Howard is somehow in control of the timing of arrests by the NT police. You should watch out, Edward, or people will start to believe that you are really as stupid as you seem.

Off to the next thread >>>

By: Tim

Tim — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 13:32:14 +0000

Spot on Don. It takes two to tango (or wedge)

I think the Australian people expect any Government to arrest paedophiles wherever whenever. They won’t give you any political credit for doing it, although they’ll punish if you stuff it up.