We’re apparently back to the routine of fortnightly Tuesday Newspoll surveys. Tomorrow’s effort shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 56-44 and their primary vote up from 46 per cent to 48 per cent. The increase comes at the expense of minor parties and the Greens, with the Coalition vote unchanged at 39 per cent. Also featured are questions on the government’s intervention into Aboriginal communities (strong thumbs up) and whether troops should be returned from Iraq (two bob each way). The Prime Minister has at least narrowed the preferred leader deficit to 42-43, his best result since February.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 56-44
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A lovely set of numbers. They don’t appear to be moving much either. I loved Dennis Shanahans spin on the figures. As someone said on his blog today, he’d be great at writing resume’s.
I wonder why he never responds to peoples accusations of pro government bias. I wonder why I bother reading his columns.
With these poll figures as they are does everyone realise we could be in the last 100 days of the Howard Government?
Tick, Tick Tick……
Keep the predictions coming Adam, if you back it its sure to be the kiss of death! Dare I say it you are on-line Mackerras given your previous predictions.
mike Says:
July 10th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
…If the govt does not turn around these poll figures in the next 4-6 weeks, I can’t see how they could not consider dumping Howard.
I hope the Coalition election strategists pay attention to your notes on a Costello for PM option- PLEASE DO IT !!, but alas (a) JWH will go down swinging, if indeed he does go down (b) Costello is about as popular in the general electorate right now as Keating was before the 1996 election .
Lose this election and Costello will walk away, noone will want him anyway, electorate or his own party. Who else then if not Costello- Well, probably nobody- isnt that beautiful !!
I’m told there is now a Labor candidate in Page, does anyone know who it is? Neither the ALP website nor Google is enlightening me.
Adam, Where did you hear that?
As far as I know it is to be decided this week
“We all need to remind ourselves, every day, that The Australian is an elite paper which swinging voters in the marginals don’t read…”
But being an “elite” paper, you would expect that its readers are fairly literate and well-educated. They are probably not fools. And, yet, why does The Australian treat its readers as if they were fools? I mean, anyone with half a brain can see through the spin that some of the commentators and so-called “journalists” apply to political stories. In recent months, The Australian has morphed from being a right-wing rag that generally favoured the Howard government to a full-blown Howard cheer squad and an attack dog on anything that looks, moves, or breathes like Rudd or anyone else from the Labor party.
It is an insult to anyone’s intelligence that the editor there would think that his readership would simply swallow the rubbish that comes out of that newspaper. If it were not for those who read it for a bit of a laugh, then I find it hard to believe that The Australian would maintain its circulations figures (which are not that great anyway) with its current editorial policy.
Nothing on local ABC news, the Lismore Star or the Northern Rivers Echo – so it can’t be true. I agree the ALP NSW Administrative Committee meets this week to finalize all candidates.
Interesting story in the NR Echo that the Nat candidate for Richmond, Dr Sue Page, didn’t enrol to vote until she was 43. How can you spend 25 years off the roll? As it is compulsory, what does the AEC do to ensure all 18 year olds enrol? If someone this prominent – she has played AMA politics for years – is off the roll, how many thousands of others with terminal disinterest are also avoiding their democratic duty?
“Who else then if not Costello- Well, probably nobody- isnt that beautiful !!”
Malcolm Turnbull?
It just keeps getting better for the coalition…
On top of the most recent resounding poll comeback, brilliantly reported in The Australian by Mr Shanahan…
The local (QLD) coalition brains trust has decided that now would be a good time to again highlight concerns about the ‘leadership’ of the QLD Liberal party… “Seeney admits Flegg concern” … http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22045263-3102,00.html
As Dennis Atkins writes…”IF Jeff Seeney – and the rest of the gang who couldn’t shoot straight – think they are doing John Howard a favour by playing leadership games four months out from a federal election, they know less about politics than their inept performance suggests…”
The rest of the report may be found here… http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22045666-3102,00.html
the polls before seemed to be a 60/40 now they are approx 55/45
given that Labor probably needs 52/48 to win then the suggestions is
that there will be a change of government BUT there is 3-4 months before
the next election and what impact will campaigning make?
RE THE SENATE
unless there is a monumental shift the L_NP will retain their senate
majority due to the nature of half senate elections and the likelyhood that
both NT & ACT will split 1/1 each and the L-NP will win 3 seats in probably
all states
“If it were not for those who read it for a bit of a laugh”
Noocat, how do you know that’s not the intended audience?
More seriously, can anyone suggest a plausible reason for the odds quoted for the ALP in the seat of Brisbane, which when I last looked were $1.36?
This is seemingly rather long for a ‘held’ seat with a sitting member recontesting, in the home state of the apparently popular federal leader.
Could it be largely due to the anticipated effect of both the high rate of increased population of the area and the electoral act changes that may mean that those who have not paid attention to their enrolment may find that they are no longer enrolled, come election day?
If so, are there other seats that people can nominate in other states where there would be a similar ‘concern’ and does anyone think that there would be enough such seats to potentially (realistically) make the difference between overall victory and defeat?
“If it were not for those who read it for a bit of a laughâ€
Noocat, how do you know that’s not the intended audience?”
Amber, I seriously began to wonder that when I was writing it! But nah, I think the guys and gals at The Australian really do take themselves seriously.
Responding to jasmine, I saw the Bolter with George Megalogenis at an ALP fund raiser, debating “Should the ALP trust the media”
I thought the Bolter is very partisan, but he doesn’t strike me as stupid. He seems, for all his prejudices, to have at least one active neuron, unlike Zackerman, Shanahan and their ilk.
He twisted the debate topic into “The ALP should not trust the media, because it convinced them that the republic, reconciliation etc were goers, when they weren’t” which he argued competently, but this topic is a distortion of the clear intention of the organisers, to discuss whether News Ltd can be trusted to report the ALP fairly, which he dodged.
The Bolter apparently worked or volunteered for the ALP under Hawke – and has a lot in common with some of Hawkes fellow travellers eg Peter Walsh.
If you watch ABC insiders, you can also see Bolter at least can manage the occassional ironic smile, which is beyond Gerard Henderson and Piers it seems
For the record, Megalogenes is much more even handed and did suggest that News is partisan, but thinks the underlying problem is lazy journos who do what the incumbent tells them, for example, he says his first press conference was a Keating one, where Keating gave out a stack of ‘talking points’ for the journos to write how bad the then Liberal opposition economic policies were. He said many were copied verbatim.
In terms of laws and the Constitution, the next election can be held as late as 23 January 2008. The House of Reps can only last 3 years from the first day that it sat after the election. The election was on 9 October 04 and Parliament first sat on 16 November 2004. The latest an election can be held is then 68 days after the dissolution of Parliament, which is then January.
I cannot imagine JWH wanting to have an election campaign over Christmas and the summer holidays, so I expect it will be no later than 15 December 2007.
The shortest time possible is 33 days, so we may not know until 12 November.
Because APEC is on until 9 September, I expect we won’t hear about an election before that date.
I think therefore we are about 110-140 days from an election.
One thing we know for sure about The Oz is that they are trying to sell papers. Who to, I’m not so sure. Anyone who’ll buy one, I guess.
It goes without saying that a close and dramatic election “contest” will sell more papers than a straightforward one. The more drama, the better! So I don’t think it is correct to say The Oz is a right wing rag, although it certainly has its share of right wing writers. I think it’s more a case of — in the interests of closeness — Howard needing all the help he can get, and The Oz obliging. Lefties should take heart that Howard is deemed to require so much assistance.
Karma Policeman Says:
July 10th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
“Who else then if not Costello- Well, probably nobody- isnt that beautiful !!â€
Malcolm Turnbull?
Who knows- the first thing Malcolm has to do is keep the seat of Wentworth against ‘George Who’ with a 2.6 margin at current tote odds. A significant State wide swing in NSW could see him out of office, but Im with those who ‘doubt’ he is serious danger and then there is the question of whether or not he is from the right faction at the right time, etc. I was talking tongue in cheek-
However, I maintain JWH will see out the race and Costello would have been given the reins months ago if they thought he was a safe bet. He isnt and wont ever be- Imagine it, the Abbott and Costello show- nothing to laugh about if you ask me.
Fargo61 Says:
July 10th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
More seriously, can anyone suggest a plausible reason for the odds quoted for the ALP in the seat of Brisbane, which when I last looked were $1.36?
Fargo I would snap up that offer- QLD will give no joy to the Coalition at all this time around, nor will SA, the 2 places Labor failed miserably last time as noted here by several observers.
RE SEATS
John Howard will not lose Bennelong nor Will Malcolm Turnbull lose
Wentworth but both seats are marginal and they’ll need to spend time
in their local campaigns away from the main campaign
RE ABBOTT & COSTELLO
If there is any justice in the world they will be a double act as liberal party
leadership just think of the old comedy skits that could be dusted
off !!!
“given that Labor probably needs 52/48 to win”
This is discussed above.
Labor *probably* needs 50.001% to win.
Labor *could* win with 49%.
Labor *will* win if they get 51.5%.
Arbie Jay and others,
I have discussed the Senate on “Morgan: 59-41â€. Adam has done so in detail more than once. It is impossible for Labor to win control. It is almost impossible for the Greens to win the balance of power. The most likely result is the coalition to retain at least a blocking vote in its own right. We can hope, but hope leads only to disappointment.
Gary, Jasmine and Martin B,
This is for you:
“Labor fails in double dissolution
“Kevin Rudd’s failure to pick up more than ten House seats in the double dissolution election which he called because the Senate remain committed to workplace flexibility has brought to a halt his plans to reverse the necessary reforms of the Liberal Government. He also failed to win control of the Senate in the double dissolution and must rely on the seven Greens senators to have legislation passed. Labor has now failed three times in a row: it failed to win control of the Senate in 2007; it failed to win more than ten seats in the House of Representatives this year; and it failed – for the second time in a row – to win control of the Senate. This is a clear indication from the Australian people that reform must continue. Peter Costello has put the Liberals back in a winning position for the 2011 election, unless Mr Rudd can rid himself of the albatross of the unions and make further reforms to introduce more flexibility to the workplace. Mr Rudd now faces his most serious challenge yet: adapt to the changed circumstances or consign Labor to history.†(The Australian, ? December, 2008)
If the polls stay this way for another month, then electoral survival will drive the Liberals to consider asking John Howard to step down.
He repeatedly says he will only stay as long as his party wants him.
There is a possibility that there could be a breakout before then with a senior Liberal throwing his hat in the ring before a quiet take over by Peter Costello.
Malcolm Turnbull is mightily ambitious and did not just enter Parliament to stay as a minister. He knows he is quite capable of running the show (with good staff to keep him tidy!).
If Peter Costello doesn’t move then surely Malcolm will.
Janette Howard has had a serious health problem and all this stress can’t be doing her any good. If John really cared for her, more than his own ambitions, and if he really cared for his beloved Liberal Party he would be making plans right now to hand over in an orderly fashion.
It may not be so orderly though.
“I cannot imagine JWH wanting to have an election campaign over Christmas and the summer holidays, so I expect it will be no later than 15 December 2007.”
I agree with this comment, with Black Jack here: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/481#comment-14879
and (of courxe) with Antony Green here: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/486#comment-16250
The election will be called no earlier than 13 September and will be held no later than 15 December.
In fact Qld, WA, SA and the NT will all start school holidays on the 15th (or 14th) , and I agree with mysef here: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/486#comment-16342
so personally I would constrain it even further.
Barring some major development, IMO the election will be no earlier than 17 November and no later than 8 December.
Jasmine
Philip Adams ‘thinks’?
Evidence?
Hmm, my last post is awaiting moderation. Perhaps there were too many links (though all to here
) so I’ll just post the good bits and ou can come back to the references…
“I cannot imagine JWH wanting to have an election campaign over Christmas and the summer holidays, so I expect it will be no later than 15 December 2007.â€
Barring some major development, IMO the election will be no earlier than 17 November and no later than 8 December.
1. If Howard reads the polls and thinks he will probably lose; and
2. If Howard enjoys hanging on to power for as long as possible, then
why wouldn’t he think about going to the polls in January?
Sure, he might lose a few votes from a summer campaign. But if he’s going to lose anyway, why bring it on any earlier than necessary?
Upside: additional days as Prime Minister attending the cricket. Worse position for Peter Costello or whoever takes over after a loss. Marginal possibility that Rudd might do a Latham and implode. Longer time spent at Kirribilli House and enjoying its taxpayer-funded wine cellar.
Downside: worse loss for Coalition. But see second upside point above. Plus it makes his actual winning elections look better.
If you finish second, do you care about the margin?
Disclaimer: I think 24 November is the likely day for the election.
Lateline just starting, with Rudd wanting to press Howard on Iraq – quite rightly – the bloody mainstream press, in which I would include much of the so-called Federeal level ABC reporters, being apparently incapable of asking any peritnent questions remarked on by earlier posters. Lordy, as Lateline goes on, there’s just more, and more, about how wonderful JWH is. Could any of us be surprised?
When I see The Australian and Shanahan keep putting a positive spin on terrible poll results I keep thinking of that Iraqi defence? minister who kept on saying how well they were doing, even as the Americans were appearing over the horizon.
No matter when the election is Howard is finished… And the next leader of the Liberal party will be Costello but for how long is anyones’ guess as he is not a winner or looker… my guess the next person to watch is Turnbull.. he has everything charisma, personality and looks… and he has some ideas.. and is perhaps more left than Howard.. Personally i think he is arrogant and full of himself and is a typical Liberal.. full of money has never struggled in his life and lives and congregates with the well to do. The Liberal leadership will be the big political tussle in the years to come… and it will be interesting.
With so much of media in the right-wing basket, so much of the public service and military politicised can Australia’s democracy survive another Howard term. Is this our last chance at voting in an opposition before we descend into a Singaporean democracy?
All – My first post follows:
I read a number of comments on this site asking the question ” When will John-Boy pull the big rabbit out of his own personal rabbit hole?”
Well, let me tell you all, on 20 September the changes that are scheduled for the Centrelink assets test taper rate are significant, substantial, majorly effective and have been entirely absent from general comment in the media and ignored on blogs like this. I work in an industry that is clsoe to this issue and I’m working through case studies right now where existing pensioners are going to have income levels doubled (and even more).
Bear in mind this a group of voters who have entirely missed out on the economic growth in the last few years and, as retirees, have missed out on the benefit of costello’s tax cuts.
My guess is that the Libs have the grey vote marked down as their trump card. Whether its right or wrong, they believe this is the ace up thier sleeve and nobody else is getting ready for the time when it gets slammed dowm on the table.
If anybody gets thier hands on the voting intentions of retirees, thats going to be the swinging group of voters this time
I wish JWH would concentrate on running the country and give up writing the editorials for The Australian.
Mr Squiggle Howard has those voters in his pocket already. No change there.
I wonder if all political articles in The Oz have to go through the PM’s office first who then get the OK from the Business Unions.
Thanks Gary,
I’m a bit of newbie to this sort of thing, so maybe I don’t have the right perspective yet.
However, the only grey voters I know usually sit me down and explain how much they hate John-boy. Its usually over a sunday diner too.
Would still be very interested in any polling that shows how retirees are leaning in thier voting intentions, for a gov-t that is desparate, they may just tip the scales on election day
If the media was fair, equitable and truthful and held the government accountable there would be no way in this world Howard could win this election. However they will instead try and get Howard re-elected.
Instead of the question asked in Newspoll if people supported Howard’s intervention in the NT they asked “do you think children in NT Aboriginal communities should be helped” they would get the same result.
I wonder when Costello is going to bang Howard on the head? Must be only days away – Maybe next weeks Neilsen poll?
More hilarity from the Oz ensues here.
Apparently, the PM’s approval ratings are the key election predictor…
What on earth is going on when even Newspoll directors don’t know what their data shows?
Yes, just before reading your post here, Happy, I posted on O’shannessy’s
nonsense blog under the name”Where’s Cerdic?”.
All good for a laugh.
I posted under the name ShowsOn to point attention to 1996 where Howard led Keating as favouried P.M. for much of 1995, but then Keating took the lead in the months leading up to the election, but STILL LOST becuase it was like a “Better the devil you know” factor, that didn’t actually change how people decided to vote.
A response I posted on O’Shannessy’s blog
Other successful leaders who have proven the ‘Preferred PM’ is the key theory are John Hewson in 1993 and Paul Keating in 1996 the latter particularly so when he managed in the final months to reclaim this territory from Howard
Wait a minute….
In 1998 almost without exception, when the Howard’s preferred PM rating went up the very same poll the Coaltion’s primary vote did the same. An entirely different situation to yesterdays where Howards went up (by all of 2% I might add, which was within margin of error territory from the last one…) but more importantly, the Coaltion’s vote neither improved nor Labor’s fell. Similar story 3 weeks ago: Howard improved his standing in preferred PM, but whilst Labor’s primary vote came down from a stratospheric 50% it largely went to the Greens and thus returned to Labor in TPP terms through preferences.
I might add that despite being the preferred PM ratings being essentially neck and neck in late 1998, Labor got a 5.2% swing. Such a swing would mean an extremely tight situation with a probable narrow Labor victory (on paper a uniform swing of this would be enough to get 78 seats)
In 2004 Labor never polled a 48% primary vote, and certainly not consistently and not 4 months from an election, so one wonders what value a comparison makes.
In 2001 Howard’s recovery in the preferred PM stakes came AFTER the ALP’s vote started to fall and the Coaltions started to improve (the former happening in March but then fell again in April- whilst the voting intention position of the Coaltion improved with almost total consistency during this period)
Preferred PM is largely superficial, especially small movements that occur within the margins of error. Parties appear on the ballot paper, not Prime Ministers. Whilst people take into account the PM when voting, they are just as likely to do so when they are being polled about the political parties they lead.
MR SQUIGGLE says : When will John-Boy pull the big rabbit out of his own personal rabbit hole?†Well, let me tell you all, on 20 September the changes that are scheduled for the Centrelink assets test taper rate are significant….
You are right to point out that Grey voters are going to like the roll out of that policy through Centrelink in the coming months.
However, as has been the case with other $ wins for employees, the $500 one off boost for pensioners recently provided, and income tax cuts etc, all this will be in the voters pockets before the election; people dont have to wait for JWH to be re-elected to ensure they score that benefit and can still oust JWH without putting that ‘reward’ at risk.
Against this test taper rate for the Grey vote, July 1st saw the introduction of another new Centrelink policy- one that impacts on sole parent families
A woman who leaves her husband with her 3 kids over 8 years old through domestic violence, for example, will no longer get Single Parenting Payment.
She will have to apply for Newstart Allowance as a Jobseeker under a ‘primary care giver’ category which limits her working and job seeking our expectations to within school hours, yet for all intents and purposes she will be treated like any unemployed jobseeker.
Whatever you think of the merit of this policy, there will be a sole parent family backlash against JWH in marginal seats, some of which have a strong sole parent family representation- thus probably drawing back any electorol benefit you might expect for JWH from the generous assets taper rate being offered to the Grey voter. No rabbit there, just a small carrot.
Footnote: Centrelinks roll out of the changes for sole parent families was set for priority groups- the first being single family parents who are unemployed and not connected to education/training in any way-
Thousands of them were sent letters and asked to contact Centrelink and make appointments for a review process– Unfortunately, the list was wrong, and letters were sent to people in Priority groups 2, 3 and 4 instead.
Moreover, many of these sole parent family heads are in no state to be active jobseekers- mental health issues (often consequential to domestic violence trauma), poverty, a lack of resources (owning a car, for example), access to competitive child care placement and many other things will be ‘barriers’ to jobseeking- and 3 ‘participation failures’ inside 12 months means 8 weeks of non-payment. There are going to be alot of single parents out there unhappy with JWH by the time the election comes around.
Marginal Coalition seats with a higher than average sole parent family representation (16.3%) include Cowper, Dobell, Lindsay, Page, Robertson, Wakefeild, Herbert, Hasluck, Stirling, Bass, Braddon and Solomon.
See see George Megalones (Courier Mail, June 30th, p.24) for a convincing argument that the sole parent family may ‘blindside’ JWH at this election.
I think Ive made my point about sole parent families and JWH rabbits. Mr Squiggle, keep dipping your toes in mate, its all good if it contributes to the discussion of ‘rabbits’.
PREFERRED PM — Oh My, ShanaHoward is really clutching at straws now. JWH will have to do better than being one point behind Rudd as preferred PM (11.5 percentage points average better than Latham last time) to shift the landscape- wishful thinking I would have thought, but yes, good for a laugh.
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