I believe that Tony Abbott was a member of the Liquor trades Union and of the Australian Journalists Association. I wouldn’t read too much into it. It’s bit like Victorian principals being members of the AEU. Hardly any of them have any commitment to the principles of unionism, to the principles of their profession or to their classroom “colleagues”, but they still see benefits in being union members.

Bwomofz,

I am quite accepting of being excluded from he more experienced and respected pseph people, but I have already posted more than once my prediction that Labor will pick up 22 seats. This is not a call, but as the months roll by, it becomes less likely that John Howard can do a miracle, and a miracle is what it will take. If these figures occurred throughout the lead-up to the 1998 or 1996 or 1983 election, no one would be considering the possibility of a Liberal victory. It’s only Mr Howard’s miraculous clawbacks in 2001 and 2004 that make anyone consider him a possibility.

The state breakdowns in Newspoll are for three months and thus have larger samples, which should make them a little more reliable than ACNielsen breakdowns.

Some posters have made absurd statements about terrorist attacks being organised to help with the election, statements so nutty that they do not deserve a response. I am certainly not part of that conspiraphile group, but I wonder how the news of today’s ordered release of Dr Haneef on bail by the magistrate and his subsequent incarceration on the ministerial order of Kevin Andrews will play out politically. Given the evidence so far revealed in the public domain, it’s a big call, even Kafkaesque. Some may see it helping the government by creating fear in the community. I think it is more likely to create ridicule and outrage – and not just from the usual suspects.

Howard won’t go before APEC which means he is locked in for a 2007 election. The people are not listening anymore, even one of my mates who has been a Liberal voter all his life is saying Howard is gone and change of government is likely. The Government is in deep trouble.

That’s why Costello threatened the petrol companies with the big stick of the ACCC. Suddenly, there is no “weekly discount cycle”. Suddenly, prices are lower.

And don’t imagine for a moment that Costello didn’t know exactly what he was doing.

July 15th, 2007 at 1:45 pm

I understand your point, but I suspect Strop will know I was joking.

Well I was referring to people with sites who have clearly done alot of homework on this subject over some time, Adam etc. However, I also have a lot of respect for what your average joe (like I am) has to say IF theyve done their homework.

BMW I havent read you predicting the outcome – must have missed that. Its all good, and I encourage anyone with sense to have a go at putting up their homework on seats and what they think can/ought to happen with them- If nothing else it kills the boredom whilst we wait for the inevitable. I dont make a living out of this stuff, thank God, buts it a lot better than watching crap on TV with the populist journo’s churning out dribble.

Another interesting thing about the supposedly mega-popular Hawke – he wasn’t able to secure a swing to Labor in any of the 3 elections he contested as PM. Not one of them. Mr Howard, on the other hand, achieved swings to the Coalition twice in a row, a feat accomplished only twice since the introduction of the 2 party system in 1949.

Now, I highly doubt he’ll be able to do that a 3rd time, but he will win and will then retire in April or May of 2009, after celebrating the 13th anniversary of his first victory.