Yesterday came Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, featuring state-by-state breakdowns and such; today comes marginal seat figures from The Australian. Analysis galore at Possum’s Pollytics and Oz Politics.
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116 Comments
I am fascinated by the bigger swing to Labor outside the capitals than inside them. As I never tire of saying, it is the Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party.
If labor win this election it will be fascinating to investigate the voters as to why the universal change. Is it a myriad of little things, a few major items like Climate Change and WorkChoices or have people become scared of the Govt/PM. It might be the later – the morals and methods of this govt.
See this exclusive in today’s The Age:
“THE Howard Government has set up a secret propaganda unit to attack Labor’s plan to build a $4.7 billion broadband network. The unit has been established within the Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts, with a staff of about 10 on short-term contracts…”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/1m-dirty-tricks-to-kill-alps-broadband/2007/07/14/1183833835482.html
If this is paid for by the taxpayer isn’t it illegal? Who follows that up? The AFP? Isn’t it rorting?
More interesting is Gregg Rudd quiting labor due to donatons to the coalition…
It will be a lot of headlines
Little impact tho. I mean nothing has had impact yet. And Greg jumped, didn’t wait to be pushed. Curiously on Friday, not news till Sunday.
Most will be on ‘unions hit back at Rudd’ etc…
Here we go again, the great Union bash continues
The Marginals are indeed terrifying and give Rudd lots of breathing space going into an election. It worries me about how extreme Howard’s tactics will be in response to this – just how far from reality have they got.
G Rudd: The lot of lobbying I guess must be making donations makes you look like a friendly. I wonder what the practice is of others that lobby? That is their business I guess. But of course you cant belong to one party and pay money to another. But really this is small beer.
Howard Govt dirt units:
However ‘dirt units’ that exist for political purposes and located within Govt Departments and paid by taxpayer MUST be illegal and require police investigation surely? It would make the Qld MP electoral rort allegations look minor in comparison.
Will be interesting to see if it goes anywhere.
I’m surprised that Rudd’s brother had to quit. Don Dunstan was for a short time a paid up member of the Liberal & Country League, but all he had to do was donate to the ALP the same amount that he had donated to the Liberals. He was never expelled.
To anyone interested Janelle Saffin has been confirmed as the ALPs candidate for Page.
Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet floating around somewhere of the 2004 Federal Election results that contain seats and primary votes?
That would be extremely useful.
Another right wing extremist wins preselection for a safe Liberal seat(Michael Towke in Cook) – will there be any moderates left in the Coalition?
I’m sure Howard is desperately searching for a new wedge issue – they must be hoping for a terrorist attack or another boat of asylum seekers.
4 months out from an election, the polls ain’t looking too flash for the government.
Dont worry, found one.
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseFirstPrefsTppByDivision-12246-NAT.htm
Chris
As to the bigger swing outside the capital cities.
Workchoices, it hits hard in country towns such as Cowra and Goulburn, as the ACTU ad says there are not alternative choices for work in those towns.
House prices, increased due to investors looking for the tax benefits and pricing the townsfolk and their children out of the market. This is an issue in WA with the number of eastern stater investors owing houses there and will lead to surprise results.
Environment to some extent with the water restrictions, health and telecommunication services and retail giants destroying local businesses.
Perhaps more seachangers moving and the lower population base means do not lead a large amount of people to produce a significant swing.
WA is of interest, Howard preferred PM has gone down 12 whilst Rudd is up 13 on what Beazley achieved, whilst Howard still leads there Rudd has a higher satisfaction rating with a high percentage undecided.
The increase in labors primary vote in WA puts 4 seats within reach, the preference flow based on the 2004 election could be misleading, I don’t see why those not prepared to vote for mad Mark in the first instance would be prepared to give him their preference in the second.
The takeover continues:
“But if dirt has been dished at Morrison during the campaign, there has been even more thrown at Towke. The only serious contender for Cook without any public profile, the security business operator remains a mystery figure, having only recently changed his name from Taouk. His threat to the blue-ribbon field of thoroughbreds is based on a campaign in which he recruited hundreds of new members, many of them from the Lebanese community, to the party’s Miranda branch. As a result, Miranda delegates loyal to Towke will have 39 votes in today’s preselection, compared with 71 votes distributed among the other 11 branches in the electorate.” (Steve Lewis and Imre Salusinszky, The Aust, June 23)
Looks like the coalition learnt nothing from the NSW election, the 3 big issues which saw Debnam go from favourite to also ran against a labor government that should not have been reelected are alive and well.
If the NSW newspoll results are anywhere close to the mark we will see the annihilation that Howard talks of, I think Turnball will keep his seat but we could see a real clean out of the libs in the election. All for the good, it will bring in new blood to the labor party and new, hopefully more liberal blood, to the libs at the subsequent election.
Ive put up a list of Coalition seats that have projected ALP primary votes at the next election should these swings hold, based on the combining of the marginal seat/safe seat newspoll and the demographic state by state newspoll.
Gives a sense of the depth of trouble the Coalition is in.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/07/15/margin-of-terror-2-the-dismembering/
As I’ve already commented on the Possum’s site, the regional swing reminds me of Victoria in 1999. Kennett’s privatisations, closure of rail-lines and mass sackings from the railways etc, compulsorary public tendering for council jobs etc all impacted on the unorganised rual workers. The 1999 election saw a small swing to Labor in Melbourne but Brack’s won a raft of rural seats that no-one predicted.
Nice work Possum, If those seats changed that would be the mother of all landslides.
I think the ALP will win between 15 – 30 seats, the problem for the ALP is many of the Liberal Party backbench have proven to be good local campaigners making winning seats like Deakin and Dunkley difficult, while the ALP have done themselves no favors in seats like Higgins with a dud candidate
Calling Ashburton Kath n Kim types isn’t smart considering the Ashburton and Alamain booths are Two booths that the ALP do very well in
The interesting thing about Newspoll’s numbers is the strength of the ALP vote in what we consider safe Liberal and non capital areas meaning we may have a repeat of the 1999 Victorian state poll when the Liberals lost seats they hadn’t lost in a great many years.
The reasons for this are varied but Kevin Rudd while some dismiss him as nerdy, but being a Social Conservative will carry much weight in rural areas and the small l Liberal in safe Blue seats will feel able to vote for him, also one thing he has done and that is leave Class based Politics at the door.
The Liberal Heartland is indeed waiting with baseball bats and while some have said the main problem for the Liberals is the lack of new faces, thats an interesting point for I saw a list of people in the First Hawke frontbench, most had gone by the early 1990s.
The Liberal heartland is waiting with baseball bats??? Where on earth did you get that idea from? Every Liberal I know strongly supports Howard and intends to vote for the party this coming election.
A-C ask where did I get the following from
The Liberal heartland is waiting with baseball bats???
1 – Every poll this year has had the Liberal Poarty losing the next Election.
2 – Newspoll has a 13.7% swing to the ALP in what it calls safe Liberal seats.
The Liberal ‘heartland’ in any meaningful sense of the term would only constitute at most about 30% of the electorate, and as such none of the data demonstrates them to be waiting with baseball bats.
But most swing voters in notionally safe Liberal seats are presently telling Newspoll they will vote Labor.
BM, I’m very hesitant when it comes to believing a poll (or any poll) which shows an unheard of swing (greater than 1975 levels) against a government with satisfactory approval, yet to go through a recession and hasn’t imploded through scandal or political division.
Yes the Liberals may well lose. But to say they’ll cop a 14% swing and completely lose the support of their heartland is wishful thinking.
So A-C you haven’t believed any of the four polling organisation results? The one thing you don’t mention however is that this is a government that believes it can win an election by going against public opinion on the main issues. Not a good career move.
A-C, the latest Newspoll conducted Apr-Jul had 3000+ voters from Lib seats held by 6%+ margins, and had Labor ahead 52-48 in those seats, a swing of 14.6%. The margin of error for such a large sample is only 2%. Remember that Bracks, Carr, Rann and Beattie at the State level have all won seats that would normally be regarded as Tory heartland.
Personally, I think it’s the climate change issue that is producing such a swing – people realise that Howard won’t do very much, while Rudd will be much more pro-active. In the regions, people are on much harsher water restrictions, and are blaming Howard for it.
Lord D, if people are going to toss out a government because the globe is supposedly getting warmer and they believe Australia can rectify it then Howard might as well book the movers now.
I’ve noted this on the earlier Morgan thread, but for those engaged in this thread, a 57% two party preferred vote for the ALP may not be the fantasy it seems to be. Have a look here,
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=117
I agree with Rudd as socially conservative; except for WA, the State Labor premiers have all won HUGE majorities by being socially conservative.
Latham and Beazley were seen as socially conservative as well.
For those with a slightly broader horizon,and an interest in what Oz coloies are up to – and yes I’m being (only slightly) ironic…- the PNG election results are slowly unfolding, using their new partial preferential system. Results are slowly coming through:
http://www.pngec.gov.pg/resultsNat2007/SummaryResults.htm
But of course, the AEC’s roll in some of the problems with this poll will be a subject of later debate I’m sure.
Latham was dammed by his behaviour which was based around Class based envy and his Policies were poor at best, at worst just outright crap
Beazley was damaged by his connection with the Keating Government and his weak effort at Policy development
Careful AC, we have a very definite stick with the theme of the hour mood amongst the posters on this blogs. Reality check comments like yours are most unwelcome.
The difference between the state premiers (Beattie, Rann, Bracks) winning huge majorities and the possibility of Ruddy winning a huge majority is that in each of their cases, their landslides were in the second term – they could exploit incumbency. In a Federal scenario, Rudd would be going in with a possible landslide. This of course would be in line with historical Federal changes of power, go in with big majority and see it whittled away.
If the ALP do win a large majority there will be two issues that could pan out to be extremely interesting in the long term:
1. The level of ALP hubris from a clean sweep may be debillitating to the ALP (especially from the boneheads in NSW)
2. The talented and ambitious staffers at state level will follow the real power and go to Canberra leaving state governments to make poor political choices.
I think the polls must bring a state of delirium for Howard haters – all those pet issues over the years and it feeds into the fantasy that finally it has all come home to roost for the Rodent.
Children overboard, IRAQ, AWB etc etc. Personally I think its outrage over ABC funding cuts that has produced the result predicted by PosseC of 1/3 of the seats in federal parliament changing hands.
I would hate to be there if Howard does win. It will definitely break a lot of hearts.
Ask yourself if you had a $100,000 would you put it all on Labor on Centrebet. I am willing to wager you wouldn’t at this point.
You can say its over when the rat test kicks in, ie Cabinet ministers start annoucing there not recontesting.
bbp and the state governments make good choices now?
I finally twigged to what you meant regarding the Minnesota DFL – Labor have been there before especially in NSW – McKell in 1941 left NSW Labor a long term rural electoral legacy and which effectively kept the ALP in power in the close years (1950) and still existed enough to give Neville Wran his majority in 1976. It was finally wiped out in 1988, and hasn’t really returned.
My question is – Where are these big non – metropolitan swings going to happen? Hinkler, Herbert, Leichardt – all feasible or the NSW North Coast?
I agree to some extent with Lord D that climate change is a sleeper issue that the Feds have ignored (probably at their peril). However, in Victoria at least any regional anger on water will be directed at the Bracks government who are taking a ‘lets piss off Northern Victoria because they won’t vote for us anyway’.
Following up on my earlier post, I am getting the feeling that the various state ALP governments are playing lots of politics with the Feds because they believe they can add to the general discomfiture – Bracks on the Murray Basin is a good example. What happens when Rudd gets elected – how will they differentiate in what will effectively be a one – party state?
ESJ that depends on your political point of view but their is only so much political talent and the states will be left in many cases with the Second XI.
Your point about people being heartbroken if JoHo is reelected. Yes they may be, but like it or lump it, the electorate will have spoken ….. and then the inevitable whines of We Wuzz Robbed ……
BBP In the Ivory Coast when there is a regime change the most loyal retainers throw themselves in the crocodile pool because they cannot bear life without the former president.
blackburnpseph
The other problem that will occur if there is a landslide is that Rudd will fail to reform the ALP to broaden its base. If he only wins by say 6 or 12 seats, then he will get stuck in to the party structure to ensure it is more representative of the community. If he wins by 20 seats, then he probably won’t bother. It is something that Hawke and Keating failed to do, which is why they have been in opposition so long.
The fact that Krudd’s own wife’s company made full use of WorkChoices and that his brother donates to the L/NP shows exactly how much ethical morality exists in Krudd’s family and show exactly why we should vote for the honest alternative – Howard.
I doubt anyone will miss Howard and co that badly. But if Howard loses Brian Loughnane and Tony Nutt will be fed to the crocodiles whether they like it or not.
SH – only a heartbreaker ie losing this year is going to force the ALP to reform – if they win the obvious question is going to be why change a winning formula
Would this be same Howard who bailed out his brother’s company after said brother had swindled his employees out of their entitlements?
Yes, the ALP is in such pressing need of reform – it has only won 20-something state elections in a row and has only leading the federal polls by a mile all year. What a terrible state to be in! Woe is us!
“Ask yourself if you had a $100,000 would you put it all on Labor on Centrebet. I am willing to wager you wouldn’t at this point.”
Probably not, Ted. Would you put half that amount on the Libs? Roy senior told me to never bet on anything that talks.
Did you get any comfort out of Little Glen in the Tele today? Three (count ‘em) barnstorming pro Lib articles plus an excellent chin out performance on Insiders, where Fran looked resigned and George was professional.
Latham sure was no conservative – he was a progressive atheist. Rudd however is just a little version of Howard, and with his Christian image has a good chance of winning the election – why for some reason people need to believe in the ritualistic, superstious nonsense called organized religion. Regardless, it seams to be working for Rudd, and is unfortunately a necessary prerequisite for Prime Minster of Australia
“And the day will come when the mystical generation of Jesus, by the supreme being as his father in the womb of a virgin will be classed with the fable of the generation of Minerva in the brain of Jupiter. But we may hope that the dawn of reason and freedom of thought in these United States will do away with all this artificial scaffolding, and restore to us the primitive and genuine doctrines of this the most venerated reformer of human errors.”
–Thomas Jefferson in a letter to John Adams, April 11, 1823
“a necessary prerequisite for Prime Minster of Australia”. Curtin and Chifley were atheists, as is Whitlam, and Hawke is an agnostic. In the latter two cases this was well known to the public.
Roy I am more a $1.07 odds type better. I honestly dont think anybody could call it now – though the polls would give you hope if believe the new mossiach is Kevin Rudd. Though I still believe on the policy positions/Sawford formula Howard should win.
20 state elections well I think winning one federal has got to be worth 100 tasmanian or 25 nsw elections. Its like saying who cares if the Republicans have dominated the US presidency but hey the democrats consistently win Mayor of San Francisco.
I’d say that being an atheist may have been OK in the past but no more – I suspect divorce, homosexuality would rule out political rulers these days given the increasingly sanctimonious American tone of our rhetoric on both sides.
If the Democrats held the governorships of all 50 states, and had done so for the past decade, and were leading by miles in the race for the next presidential election, I think any reasonable person would conclude that the Republicans were the party in need of reform, not the Democrats.
Neither divorce, nor homosexuality, nor atheism are any longer barriers to public office in Australia. Once again, Edward wrongly projects his own cynicism onto everyone else.
alphacoward Leave it alone mate. This is a political blog. Take your biases somewhere else.
Edward, to predict the return of the government based on the Sawford formula is to desperately clutch at straws. For a start, the inflation component of the formula may not be as clear cut as you imagine, which I explained in a previous post yesterday – you know where to find it. This means that it might actually predict a Rudd win.
But all that aside, we are not living in some kind of programmed, formulaic world where you can count on a particular electoral outcome simply by knowing whether there has been a particular movement on interest rates, unemployment, and inflation. Sure, there seems to be a correlation based on some (NOT all) elections in the past, but the political landscape changes. The reasons why people vote for a party do change, and it will not always come down to simple things like inflation.
I think one can never apply excessive cynicism to Australian politics. I take that as a compliment Adam.
I think the point about our Federalism is that the Libs are the Daddy party and Labor the Mommy party which is reflected in the division of responsibility between the Feds and the States. It’s just that in this family daddy has a lot more power and clout then mommy.
I dont think Kev going to supermarkets is going to change the fundamentals on economic management or for matter doing ads telling people how conservative he is. We all saw how well idealism went down with Medicare Gold though.
Or… maybe Australians are sick of Howard’s heavy-handed paternalism. They might be looking for a more compassionate government, or what you might call a “Mummy” government.
Noocat,
Its an interesting point, if Rudd wins I can see the editorials writing him up as a tactical genius and if he loses they probably will pick something mundane as the grocery prices stunt as the beginning of the end (although it should be Medicare Golds IR policy in fairness)
I am inclined to the Marxian determinist view of history, objective factors determine the outcome although I admit in some cases a particularly good or bad leader can affect an outcome.
Ted,
Re the Sawford formula. There used to be an NRL (nee ARL) formula that said that a team couldn’t win a grand final unless it had been in a losing grand final within the previous five years. That was true for about a million years and then along came Murdoch, of all people, who upended all formulae, kicked teams out, bought four or five teams of his own and basically said – “F**k formulae, I want the Melbourne Storm to win. And win they did. And formula driven football was lost forever. Even the Bunnies came back. So why would Federal Politics be any different? Hang your hat on an obscure 80% trusim all you like, but it means jack s**t at the counting house.
Blackburnpseph,
I can be a little obscure at times. If socio-economic grounds were all that counted, rural folk would, of course, vote Labor, but other factors come into play. One lesson from the 1999 Victorian election is the huge amount of work that John Brumby did in the bush to help get Steve Bracks across the line. This work paid off handsomely in the following 2002 and 2006 landslides to Labor. If federal Labor can do the same, it is home and hosed. That the polls are showing bigger swings in the bush than the city suggests an important shift, though we must be aware that the non-capital city category includes provincial cities and trendy coastal areas as well as the real bush. (I occasionally see some denizen of the bush write to complain about the bush being referred to as such. As a former resident of the bush, no one I knew ever had a PC problem with it.)
I have no idea where the big non-metro swings will happen.
Bill,
Given that Kevin Rudd’s brother has resigned from the ALP because he had made donations to other parties, do you think the AMWU will be disaffiliated because of the donation that you revealed it made to the Greens? Imagine the re-proportioning of internal power if that happened.
Simon Howson,
There is no need for the ALP to restructure if you mean reduce union influence. The fact that unions represent only 20 per cent of the working population has nothing to do with the ALP’s internal structures. One could argue that the almost 2,000,000 unionists in the country are way under-represented in the ALP in that they have only the same 50 per cent vote as the 40,000 or so full members. In any case, Labor voters are happy to elect unionists in election after election.
Instead of “As a former resident of the bush, no one I knew ever had a PC problem with it” – which is ungrammatical – I should have typed, “As a former resident of the bush, I never met anyone who had a PC problem with it”.
Edward, when I scratch a Liberal I always find a cynic like you, someone who thinks that the only things that motivate people are greed and fear, and whose political behaviour is governed by that belief. Thanks for confirming that. The reason I could never be a Liberal, despite my right-wing views on many issues, is that I can’t stand their cynical contempt for the Australian people. The Labor Party, for all its failings, at least tries to appeal to higher motives. You can scoff all you like about Medicare Gold, and I agree it was a badly thought-out policy, but I will defend its idealism – it would indeed be nice if we could give free health care to the elderly. If I had to choose either Medicare Gold or WorkChoices – stripping low-paid workers of their entitlements – as my political legacy, I know which one I’d choose.
I’ve been doing some thinking about this coming election – maybe an ALP win this year will be better for the Coalition in the long term…
bbp previously mentioned all the hubris which would inevitably come with controlling every single government in the nation. Who exactly could Labor blame for any bad outcomes? There’d be no one to pass the buck to. We’re also well overdue for an economic downturn… If Labor does win, then the State governments would start falling like dominos – this surely wouldn’t be a good look for Rudd.
Federal Labor is also running on a “we’re not planning on doing anything except signing Kyoto, bringing our IR laws back to the pre-Hawke era and watching grocery prices” ticket. In the long term, lack of a social revolutionary type program would surely disappoint the bleeding heart ‘true believers’ which make up most of the ALP…
Most ALP true believers just want Howard gone as number one priority. Social revolutions can wait a little longer and can be worked on in time.
Well said Adam. Like you i am surprised at the lack of thoughtful or compassionate liberals. Perhaps the overwhelming left view on this (and other) blogs puts of the decent ones, but all we seem to get is the right-wing idealogues. Those who have no real values outside of ‘I’m OK, screw you’, or the stupid reds-under-the-bed diehards.
I’m also right in many of my views, but like you and many thoughtful people I cannot stand this govt and it’s cynical manipulation any longer. Hopefully there are enough ‘real’ liberals out there who also think the same and who are switching votes this time. It’s only three years after all !
Adam, it’s impossible for the Left to understand the Right. What you guys mistake for “contempt for the ordinary folk”, greed, fear and “stripping entitlements” we view as fostering individualism, free enterprise and protecting the moral fabric of society.
On the other hand the Left loves “free health care for the elderly” (read: un-sustainability, higher taxes, tragedy of the commons), “idealism” (read: collectivism). Conservatives are sceptical of these motives because they generally involve larger government and/or social engineering.
by your logic
“Conservatives are sceptical of these motives because they generally involve larger government and/or social engineering.”
then i will be sceptical of J-HO and so will 58% of the people
Right and Left aside, the big differences between the two parties I see are the policies.
But this is a blog about polls. There’s plenty of others where people can flame each other all day about ideology.
A-C I agree with your opening sentence, and I dare say the reverse is also true. This explains the curious paradox of Australian political life. Although the policy differences between the two major parties are not all that great, the level of partisan animosity in Australia is as high as ever, maybe higher.
Recently in Britain a Conservative MP defected directly to the Labour Party, and several others did so over the Blair years. During the Thatcher years there was at least one defection in the opposite direction. I cannot recall such a thing happening in Australia, and I find it hard to imagine. MPs who leave their parties here usually become independents or join a minor party. The cultural gulf between “Labor people” and “Liberal people” is so wide that it is virtually impossible to cross it in one bound. (I suppose Brendan Nelson is the nearest approach, but he wasn’t in Parliament when he defected.)
# Grooski Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
Most ALP true believers just want Howard gone as number one priority. Social revolutions can wait a little longer and can be worked on in time.
Grooski there will be no social revolution under Labor. The worker will still have to work hard, the unemployed will still be, Homosexuality will still have little rights, Pensioners will still live on a pittance. Hospitals will still be in crisis etc etc. I see this as similar to a football grand final, great for the winning team, great for the supporters but then life goes on and nothing really changes. I am afraid the day of a party being something totally new is gone and both parties in the end will do as big business wants. ( a check on political donations will show what i mean ) Unions support the ALP at the moment but that will change too as the ALP outlaws the right to stike outside an EBA and will not tolerate a YR@W campaign. Interesting to note the union bosses who support the ACTUs YR@W campaign are running in seats for the ALP who will outlaw it. Seems that either they dont have a voice in the ALP or they have shafted the worker . Either way Howards Work choices or Rudds Work choices lite will serve the worker little good
With all respect A-C, I cannot believe that people would ever argue that losing an election would bring greater long term success. Silly people were saying that in relation to the ALP in the lead up to the 1998 election, the idea beaing that allowing Howard to implement the GST would lead to a backlash and an ALP government at the next election as well as a stack of GST revenue. Politics is not chess, its checkers.
Nostro, Rudd’s wife didn’t use WorkChoices old son. For someone who thinks they can tell the future you’re pretty hazy on the past. Time to move on before your brain turns to mush…
If the polls are saying that the ALP has a 56-44 2pp lead over the Coalition,I would be pretty confident that there would be some “right” leaning voters who are not going to vote for the Coalition.Just as some of the “left”voters have doubts over Labor.
Quote:That Guy Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
Right and Left aside, the big differences between the two parties I see are the policies.:End Quote:
Why are the polls so bad for the government?
The quote above is I believe to be a more correct assessment of the current thinking of the nation.My perception since Mr Rudd took over is that it is he that has been setting the policy agenda,Mr Howard is trying to react to polling that is not good for the government,trying to play catch-up,or as John Howard has said “irritants” to be checked off the list.
Therein may lie the difficulties for Mr Howard.What he may see as an irritant can be seen as big issues for people who go about their daily lives without taking too much notice of blogs such as these or politics in general.Some of my workmates for example have openly said “we’ll show him what an “irritant “is at the next election”.He may not have meant it in a derogatory manner,but that may be how he is being perceived.
Mr Howard has a lot of baggage which has been picked over his tenure in Parliament.He has a record of not being truthful or outright lying,all for the political gain of himself,his party,and it’s big business supporters.The No GST,We’ll never sell Teltsra,Children Overboard,Tampa,Iraq,AWB,Climate Change scepticism.and the grand daddy of them all-Workchoices.I think it was work choices which may have hardened people against the Coalition.It may not be the biggest single issue but it is possibly “the last straw which broke the camels back” for a lot of people.
I am not a leftie or rightie, but I am a supporter of Mr Rudd,I am not a memeber of a political party or a union,but only a family man with kids and a mortage who wants a different future than the one Mr Howard has for us.
alphacoward Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Latham sure was no conservative – he was a progressive atheist. Rudd however is just a little version of Howard, and with his Christian image has a good chance of winning the election –
How true!
sondeo de opinion Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
I am not a leftie or rightie, but I am a supporter of Mr Rudd,I am not a memeber of a political party or a union,but only a family man with kids and a mortage who wants a different future than the one Mr Howard has for us.
Can you tell us what the future Rudd has for us and how it will change largely for the better for most Australians? I just cant see where i will be better of apart from the maybe and thats a big maybe the removal of ALL AWAs
blackburnpseph Says:
If the ALP do win a large majority there will be two issues that could pan out to be extremely interesting in the long term:
2. The talented and ambitious staffers at state level will follow the real power and go to Canberra leaving state governments to make poor political choices.
It is already happening. I have a close relative high up in a (large) state government, and they are losing top people to the Rudd team every other day.
What time does AC Nielsen get released? And what are the predictions?
Timbo, yes I am interested that Janelle Saffin won pre-selection for Page.
Chalk that up for another strong possibility for Labor. She very popular, well known and a woman of great integrity. She performed very well in the NSW Legislative Council.
I had a conversation with an advertising heavy connected with political campaigning. He said the number one negative for Howard was his age.
The pendulum would have swung to Hewson in 93 if he hadn’t had the GST. Ten years of one government is usually enough. 11 and a half years is more than enough, particularly with an old stale team.
There should have been a leadership handover last year to Costello (or whoever) to allow the new leader to choose a new team and new direction.
I think it is likely that there will be one before the election now. It would be interesting to see what odds the bookmakers would give on it.
Bill, the short answer is because he isn’t John Howard.
Some people point out that union membership is very low in Australia. Then why is it that IR seems to be the big vote winner for the ALP? I believe it is mainly an electorate that is tired of Howard and i believe that this is shown by the ALPs choice of a Lib type ant union leader. Any leader that was more progressive would be struggling in the polls. But the ALP seems to like selling conservatism as the way to go. I can see more industrial action under Rudd if he wins as progressive unions will not lie down and take anti worker policies from him. That is why the ALP wants to water down workers rights to the point of what i would only expect from the Libs
Work Choices is a big winner because it is about EMPLOYMENT relations not INDUSTRIAL relations. Most Australians are not members of unions, but most Australians understand that there are bad bosses in the same way that there are bad employees. But bad bosses can treat you much worse than a bad employee will act.
People expect that the young will be looked after, but the evidence shows that the young are exploited badly under Work Choices. Older stronger more educated workers ordinarily have less to fear but the younger, the weaker do and this goes against Australians’ ideas of the Fair GO.
Although people have many negative views of unions, I think most people would believe that they will look after their members, workers.
Bill Weller in one of his rants above said inter alia: “there will be no social revolution under Labor. … Homosexuality will still have little rights.” I presume by “homosexuality” he means gay men and lesbians. In fact Labor is committed to the same policy it had in 2004, which is to remove all discrimination against gay men and lesbians, with the single exception of the definition of marriage in the Marriage Act. I saw that policy reconfirmed by Tanya Plibersek last week. Anyway it is not true to say that gay men and lesbians have “little rights” even now. As a gay man I can tell him that there are in practice very few rights which gay men and lesbians don’t have – thanks of course to state Labor governments which have passed various bills over the past decade removing legal discrimination.
Cynic? Moi
And the Australian Labor Party just wants to help? ROFLMAO
Yes I am from the government and I am here to help! You have to get out more Adam if you really believe that.
And the Liberal Party just wants to help? ROFLMAO
We could play this silly game all night…
My prediction on AC Nielson os 55/45 2pp!
I think 56 / 44 … I keep refreshing SMH.com.au to find out … and I want to go to bed too … Such dilemmas.
51-49TPP?
Only kidding!
My prediction is 56/44. Acnielsen’s TPP result can be a little unpredictable though due to how they allocate preferences. I don’t expect any primary vote movements outside the margin of error. (Although there was a lot of negative news for the government between Thursday and Saturday when the poll was taken)
Pseph: The Age usually updates first. Usually isnt untill around 12-12.30 though.
Thanks James J… looks like i’ll be hitting the sack then
Predicting the polls that predict the voting intentions that predict the election? Are we tragic yet?
We sure are
… about as tragic as talking politics at 11pm on a Sunday night on a blog …
Very, very tragic
Ill take your tragic and raise it to …to…okay cant raise it.. AC Neilsen- 56-44 2PP I say.
As a gay man, I with many many others would disagree with you Adam.
Acnielsen – 58/42 TPP
http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/07/15/1184438150774.html
AC Nielsen is up at The Age. Labor ahead 58\42 TPP an 49\39 Primary.
It just keeps coming…
WOAH
the Rudd juggernaut rolls along
and thier preferred pm goes 49 to 41 Rudds way
Will the Liberals panic and roll Howard? Big call.
“exhales”
Ok, thats better, now I understand whats probably happening….
Rudd looks set to win but Howard will probably make it over the line and get the polka hat.
Work choices and Climate change are the main doobies, except that Howard will release a big climate change “dosumthing” later on. (Costing about5biullion over 10 years) and that will sort that out. Work choices will be huge except that come Nov everybody will be bored of hearing about it by then.
Gov will beat shit out of evry/any body that looks like they might be worth a hit and Rudd will try to preempt this by drivebying them first.
Simple stuff
“sigh”
If Howard is to be replaced it needs to be done quickly. I doubt it would stop a defeat but it would prevent a rout.
I wont believe a Labor will win until I see the Fat Lady getting into her taxi, pay cheque in hand.
Howard and Co are trying their harderst to make a Terrorims Fear card out of the current issue of Haneef.
Ruddock trotts out regularly with up dates – the police role.
Howard going on about Terrorism.
Downer re-issuing the warning level for Indonesia.
The Australian in the previous week running a plethora of Terrorism stories
Haneef gets charge with ‘reckelessly’ giving his old sim card to a second cousin.
WA house get raided and Ruddock again intends to keep giving updates in place of the police and, drag it all out as long as possible..
And so on.
Seen it all before from this govt which seems to have no morals remaining: –
Tampa put up job, Baby Overboard lying, Hick’s indefinite incarceration, Habib’s torture, AWB bribery without accountability of Minister, character assasination of Justice Kirby on faked documents under parliamentary privilidge, Manildra coincidences, Cash for visas, incarceration and deportation of Australians, using refugess, xenophobia and intolerance, slaging off at Asian immigration and so on.
Thus making mileage out of Haneef would be second nature to them – lets see where they try and take it, lets see how brazen they will be in inventing or misconstruing information and so forth.
Oh no, I can see Shanahan’s headline now:
“RUDD STEALS HOWARD’S SAUSAGE, AND ASKS FOR MORE SAUCE”
… No, it isn’t meant to make any sense
The breakdown by State is too weird.
It’s early in the morning and I have just read “Labor Keeps Whopping lead” in The Age.
What I find surprising is pollsters running around saying “can’t work why labor support is so strong” and not asking questions about trust and morality.
At times this government has acted amorally; maybe too many Australians are now so seriously offended they won’t vote for them under any circumstance.
If this is the case then recent efforts by the Liberals (Budgets handout, Aboriginal land grab etc.) would have solidified the Labor vote not eroded it, further “union leaders under the bed” etc. just isn’t going to work as an election campaign theme.
The next twelve months are going to be interesting, will the liberal party be able to move back to the center after the election or is it too strongly capture by right wingers.
If the liberal party folds, what will replace it? Interesting times.
NSW is astronomically high, QLD is much lower than other polls, but this has been put down to a small sample size in that state.
My theory is to why the ALP appear to be headed for a landslide is that this is a long delayed response.
Remember how quickly Rudd became Preferred PM ? Latham also performed very well, very quickly, as soon as he took the job. He quickly became the most popular Opp Leader in history in Australian history IIRC, not quite topping Howard as Preferred PM, but close.
Why do Opposition Leaders get so popular, so quickly, in the Howard era? Basically because Australians have long been sick of Howard. It’s just that it’s taken this long for the ALP’s factional system to produce a decent alternative.
IMO.
This is election year politics – things have been stable like this for some time now (with the exception of the ineffective and highly dubious NT thing [This effects me personally as I’m a big kava fan and am I highly peeved they're banning it!]) but sooner or later somebody is going to have to make a BIG move and whatever effects it has could snowball and change this whole equation. Of course there’s no change yet: neither the coalition nor labor has brought out their really big guns yet (though I’m beginning to wonder whether the liberals have anything up their sleeves left without moving ever closer to fascism – yep Keating hinted at some truths there) and when the big guns do come out either a labor landslide or the coalition just hanging on to power could still happen. So don’t rule out Howard yet. At any rate that would give me the excuse to move to NZ that I’ve been looking for.
Wierd, wierd numbers in that AC Nielsen poll breakdown (48-52 Lib’s way in OLD? 62-38 ALP in NSW 70-30 ALP 18-24 year olds? 47-53 Libs 55+?). Seems like a whole lot of rubbish to me, though the headline (and preferences as in 2004) numbers in aggregate is at about the same level its been bouncing around recently, so overall it seems about right (which says so much about the sort of numbers Rudd’s been getting)
Wouldn’t Dennis be upset that last weeks preferred PM rating did not in fact presage a polling increase for the government, either then or now.
We hate to say we told you so but….
On another note, a mere 21% blaming interest rates for the price of houses makes one wonder about the efficacy of Labor’s line on this. That said, the 8% number who blame state governments is even worse for the Coalition.
Iraq numbers are (in a headline sense) a nightmare for the PM, as always.
Labor’s constitution states:
The Australian Labor Party is a democratic
socialist party and has the objective of the
democratic socialisation of industry, production,
distribution and exchange, to the extent
necessary to eliminate exploitation and other
anti-social features in these fields.
Yeah, flippin right! Labor long ago gave up on, it’s once true socialist principles (and if Rudd does move to reform the part this little exert could very easily be erased). The day is nigh, somewhere between 5 and 8 years from now, when large chunks of the trade union movement see labor for what it truly is: Menzies with a sock puppet and a Smiley Face! And on that day a party which truly does represent the interests of the worker will be the recipients of a large swing, maybe gaining around 25% of the primary vote! On this day a new era in Australian politics will dawn, when minority governments become the norm (as they often are in many nations), politics is actually covered on commercial TV news and workers get the treatment they deserve!
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Note: This is only one possible outcome. Another is that things continue on as they are; only the Left becomes increasingly disillusioned with our “democracy†(or would they say Murdochracy/ Packerocracy/ ACCIocracy) and only find cold comfort in saying “see I told you so about climate change, but would you listen? No, you wouldn’t: and now we’re all stuffedâ€.
Although again this is only one possibility and as you have probably already guessed, I’m full of $h1T. Other possible scenarios for 5 – 8 years from now are also possible. Democrats landslide??? LOL! Any other ideas…
Remember people, that when you break down a single poll into separate parts – whether by state or by demographics or whatever – the sample size of each component will be small and the margin of error therefore huge.
That’s why Newspoll presents its breakdowns not from one poll but from three months worth of polling.
Incidentally, I can’t find the referred to state-by-state breakdown from today’s Nielsen; only the city/rural and age breakdowns linked from The Age’s front page.
APEC should be really exciting! So many heads of state + rioting in Sydney! All just a matter of weeks before an election is called. What effect will any rioting have? what effect will any police brutality whilest stopping it have (probably not much)? What effects will some brakethrough agreement/ a brakedown in the talks have? Some have mentioned the possibility of a Sydney protocol on CC, how much could this soften anti-Howardism if the media portrays it as being significant?
And more importantly what ‘Australian clothes’ will the Asia-Pacific delegates be wearing for their photoes together? My bet is those hats with the corks around them. Thongs/ traditonal aboriginal clothes won’t be the image we will promote and i don’t think the government will try anything cutsie like clothes which demonstrate our multiculturalism (they’re phasing that idea out anyway).
Many of the parties could use APEC to springboard they’re campaign. Remember how last time George was in town the Greens had a bit of fun? Well, he could certainly play a part in their campaign, quite good timing for them, labor could leak. Do you folk agree?
All that just before the election. How can it not be reasonably significant? Personally I can’t wait to see what unfolds during it and what George, Hu and Helen (Hope she has to pronounce the word six again at some time – Chaser I love you) will have to say!
“With all respect A-C, I cannot believe that people would ever argue that losing an election would bring greater long term success. Silly people were saying that in relation to the ALP in the lead up to the 1998 election”
Nah, this silly person reckons it about the 1990 election
Peacock as PM would have been much less odious than Howard, who would have never got a second shot at the leadership. And Paul Keating would have had 6 years rather than 6 months to broaden his policy focus and gone on to lead a successful multi-term government
“Yes, the ALP is in such pressing need of reform – it has only won 20-something state elections in a row and has only leading the federal polls by a mile all year.”
And furthermore, which of the ALP’s failures over the last 15 years or so have really been failures.
There was no surprise in losing 96 – the surprise was winning 93.
Nor in 98, almost noone thought they could win – but nearly did.
So the ALP’s ‘terrible’ record federally in recent times really comes down to its failure in 2004, with a question mark over 2001, balancing against the Liberal’s real failure in 1993.
Martin B is right, but the significance of Howard winning in 2001 and 2004 is that it was with increased majorities. Although having a personal dislike for Howard, he is arguably the most successful PM. He is now the second longest serving PM after Menzies, and without the benefit of the DLP. It just goes to show that picking on helpless refugees will always be a vote winner.
“the significance of Howard winning in 2001 and 2004 is that it was with increased majorities”
2001 was only *barely* an increased majority.
2004 was certainly a failure, for this reason amongst others. IMO 2001 can plausibly be considered as either a failure by the ALP, or as an election with unusual circumstances.
“he is arguably the most successful PM”
What is unusual about Howard is that he has been more successful in the second half of his tenure than in the first.
Adam Says:
July 15th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Bill Weller in one of his rants above said
Oh Adan i just love it when you have a go its makes me feel that i am hitting a raw nerve. The only thing i have seen changed in the gay culture is that i don’t get bashed or threatened standing up for Gays or Aboriginals like i did 25 years ago. I find it strange the ALP doesn’t give Gays full rights as heterosexuals but when a party is moving to the right i suppose it would be going to far to make EVERYONE equal!
Oh well here goes and you’ll both hate me but Adam and Bill you are both right, Labor is essentially to thank for the fantastic progress we as a whole society have made on getting rid of stupid and unfair discrimation against homosexuals. That the Liberals have wedged labor on the word ‘marriage’ and that some rights still just aren’t equal for all people is a disgrace and a great shame to the Labor party.
In fact the pathetic and either homophobic or political cowardice of the whole ‘marriage’ word position is difficult to understand, and I have tried in more appropriate forums to have it debated but without any true luck. If ever there was a position lacking substance the marriage word thing is it.
sorry about my spelling a bit worked up.
Jasmine i don’t and never would hate anyone. I enjoy your posts and respect your knowledge