Comedy alert. What follows is a parody. It seems some readers actually thought it plausible that this was written by Chris Mitchell.
Guest post by Chris Mitchell, editor of The Australian.
Kevin Rudd’s prime ministerial ambitions lie in tatters today after yet another devastating opinion poll, this time from ACNielsen. For all the ignorant whingeing levelled at the government lately by out-of-touch ivory tower eggheads, loony left “web loggers”, civil libertarian do-gooders, bludgers and parasites from the Aboriginal industry and (SNIP – maybe I was a bit harsh on poor old Chris with this last one), the Coalition primary vote is still on 39 per cent. This is profoundly significant because, as those who really understand opinion polls can tell you, only four of the previous nine changes of government occurred after ruling party support remained steady in the last month before the election whose name began with a J.
Minor details of the poll include a Labor primary vote tapping on the door of 50 per cent, a further widening of the two-party gap from 57-43 to 58-42, growing opposition to Australian involvement in Iraq, little support for the notion that high house prices are caused by “inadequate land releases by governments”, and – this can’t be right – movements away from the Prime Minister on those all-important performance approval and preferred leader ratings.
In other news, it seems not even The Age can spell ACNielsen (I beg your pardon if this has been corrected by the time you read this).
166 Comments
This is election year politics – things have been stable like this for some time now (with the exception of the ineffective and highly dubious NT thing [This effects me personally as I’m a big kava fan and am I highly peeved they’re banning it!]) but sooner or later somebody is going to have to make a BIG move and whatever effects it has could snowball and change this whole equation. Of course there’s no change yet: neither the coalition nor labor has brought out their really big guns yet (though I’m beginning to wonder whether the liberals have anything up their sleeves left without moving ever closer to fascism – yep Keating hinted at some truths there) and when the big guns do come out either a labor landslide or the coalition just hanging on to power could still happen. So don’t rule out Howard yet. At any rate that would give me the excuse to move to NZ that I’ve been looking for.
1. Labor’s constitution states:
The Australian Labor Party is a democratic
socialist party and has the objective of the
democratic socialisation of industry, production,
distribution and exchange, to the extent
necessary to eliminate exploitation and other
anti-social features in these fields.
Yeah, flippin right! Labor long ago gave up on, it’s once true socialist principles (and if Rudd does move to reform the part this little exert could very easily be erased). The day is nigh, somewhere between 5 and 8 years from now, when large chunks of the trade union movement see labor for what it truly is: Menzies with a sock puppet and a Smiley Face! And on that day a party which truly does represent the interests of the worker will be the recipients of a large swing, maybe gaining around 25% of the primary vote! On this day a new era in Australian politics will dawn, when minority governments become the norm (as they often are in many nations), politics is actually covered on commercial TV news and workers get the treatment they deserve!
DISCLAIMER
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Note: This is only one possible outcome. Another is that things continue on as they are; only the Left becomes increasingly disillusioned with our “democracy†(or would they say Murdochracy/ Packerocracy/ ACCIocracy) and only find cold comfort in saying “see I told you so about climate change, but would you listen? No, you wouldn’t: and now we’re all stuffedâ€.
Although again this is only one possibility and as you have probably already guessed, I’m full of $h1T. Other possible scenarios for 5 – 8 years from now are also possible. Democrats landslide??? LOL! Any other ideas…
APEC should be really exciting! So many heads of state + rioting in Sydney! All just a matter of weeks before an election is called. What effect will any rioting have? what effect will any police brutality whilest stopping it have (probably not much)? What effects will some brakethrough agreement/ a brakedown in the talks have? Some have mentioned the possibility of a Sydney protocol on CC, how much could this soften anti-Howardism if the media portrays it as being significant?
And more importantly what ‘Australian clothes’ will the Asia-Pacific delegates be wearing for their photoes together? My bet is those hats with the corks around them. Thongs/ traditonal aboriginal clothes won’t be the image we will promote and i don’t think the government will try anything cutsie like clothes which demonstrate our multiculturalism (they’re phasing that idea out anyway).
Many of the parties could use APEC to springboard they’re campaign. Remember how last time George was in town the Greens had a bit of fun? Well, he could certainly play a part in their campaign, quite good timing for them, labor could leak. Do you folk agree?
All that just before the election. How can it not be reasonably significant? Personally I can’t wait to see what unfolds during it and what George, Hu and Helen (Hope she has to pronounce the word six again at some time – Chaser I love you) will have to say!
I think we are all being a little mean at poor old DS and the Oz.
He is not the only one who has been discounting Labor’s strong lead at the polls and looking for signs of its end. Most media commentators have been predicting Labor’s lead will inevitably erode based on little more reasoning than it has done so before … and I think a couple of those in the ‘alternative’ media have joined them.
Preference deals will obviously play a large part in this election and its an issue i’m keen to address in more detail at a later date. In the mean time here’s a link.
http://www.bobbrown.org.au/600_media_sub.php?deptItemID=2348
It simply points out what should be common sence (i hope) that Family First and the Greens will not swap preferences. No Dah! But it also leaves in doupt whether greens or FF will receive labor preferences. This issue is crucial.
People should stop falling for this idea that APEC will produce some type of great “breakthrough” on climate change, world trade talks, terrorism etc.
Everything that the APEC member economies agree to is not binding. That’s right, there’s no penalty for not going through with a proposal.
Ever wondered why continuing support for a successive conclusion to Doha has been in the last four APEC communiques – signed off by such free trading friends as Japan and Russia?
The same with climate change. No matter what they sign off on, the member economies don’t have to do a thing – and in the case of China, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and others, they won’t.
Great poll for Labor!!
Two months ago, Labor lead 48-39 on primary; that was unchanged in June. Now Labor leads 49-39. Another poll where the trend is back to Labor since June.
Gosh, isn’t Rudd in a lot of trouble now? And so is AC Neilsen, for that matter. Our latest excellent Newspoll showed Howard catching Rudd as preferred PM, but the AC Neilsen pollsters are obviously asking the wrong questions, or they would have confirmed that critically important fact.
In other news, Generallisimo El Busho confronts the Global Warmings! Click my link for the true facts, well not facts, but the hard truth that the pinko pansy leftists refuse to acknowledge!
NOTE: It apparently needs to be spelled out that this comment is not really from Dennis Shanahan.
When DS led with “”HOWARD CHECKS RUDD’S MARCH” what he in fact meant was that John was judging whether Rudd’s walking style was something he should copy.
That is all.
LOL…the art of media spin. You don’t think Howard is praying for a reversal of those numbers? (after his prayer for water of course)
As usual, when people have nothing really important to say the best they can do is call names – “out-of-touch ivory tower eggheads, loony left “web loggersâ€, civil libertarian do-gooders, bludgers and parasites from the Aboriginal industry” indeed. This from a guest editor of what is supposedly a responsible newspaper? Hah!
Molotov: thoughts on the impact that incidents at the APEC fringe festival will have on the campaign will have The Squeaker boycotting you.
APEC: little more than a photo opportunity for John Winston Howard!
I doubt anything of great substance will arise from this massive waste of time and police resources! And publicly crawling up Bush’s arse won’t do much for the rodent’s popularity.
The only good thing out of this for Howard is that Rudd won’t be invited.
Peter Hartcher: another one of the so called political experts who refuses to believe his own newspaper’s polling!
Real problem for the Coalition: their low primary vote, and the fact they are getting virtually no 2nd preferences from minor parties.
Fantastic analysis, Mr Mitchell
Love your work William.
DS and the OZ can expect this kind of response in spades. See Peter at Mumble.
Great leader Mr B! You’ll get your 6-figure salary at the GG in no time if you can keep it up!
Right, that’s it. It’s bad enough we have to put up with these kind of headlines at the Oz, now they’re writing pieces for the pollbludger. I want to complain, or is the room for insults?
Brecht had it right. Abbot should take note; it’s time to dissolve the people and elect another.
Howard’s job approval rating remains close to 50% (49 in this poll).
Either a strong plurality of voters still feel warmly to the old bugger, even as they prepare to vote against him, or incumbency remains a huge benefit for the person at the helm.
Any other explanations?
Graeme,
You can think someone is doing OK job but still perceive and prefer a better alternative.
Interesting that Stirton was quoted differently in The Age and the SMH.
In the Age ALP support has been “rock solid” for months.
In the SMH, ALP “peaked in March”, trended down at 1% per month until June and has now steadied.
Tsk, tsk, William, now you are just being provocative. And it is totally justified. Perhaps an opinion piece by a certain John Winston Howard next?
As you were.
Don’t you love the headlines? “Voters blame Howard for falling house prices”. The ALP previously spinned this as the “housing affordability crisis” which driving voters in droves away from the government. I guess Howard is damned either way.
I said a few times over at OzPolitics that we’d be able to tell a better story about what the polls were doing by mid-July. Well, now we can.
Labor started the year leading by about 56-44. Then surged to around 59-41 in March, and ebbed back a bit to 58-42 at budget time. IMHO, a careful reading of the polls (and a recognition that that 52-35 Newspoll was probably outside the MoE) suggests around a 2-point ‘budget bounce’ in the second half of May, back to 56-44.
And since the start of June? Nuffink. Nix. Nada. Polls going absolutely nowhere. There’s more of a case (but not much of one) for an increase in Labor’s vote than a decline over that period. A flat line would be my description. The Coalition is stuck at around 44% and not showing a hint of any kind of traction.
I have argued a) Howard will probably see off Rudd, b) Costello would be a better bet than Howard even at this late date. I’m starting to have doubts about a), and that is strengthening my belief in b). I reckon they’ve still got a fortnight to roll the PM if they’re smart. They probably aren’t.
And this ‘39′ sequence is quite fascinating… 4/5 Newspolls and 3/3 ACN’s since mid-May. Surely there must be a 38 or a 40 at some point?
“I think we are all being a little mean at poor old DS and the Oz.
He is not the only one who has been discounting Labor’s strong lead at the polls and looking for signs of its end. ”
If they just wanted to say that their intuition is that the ALP lead is soft, that it will fall before the election etc etc then that is fair enough. That is opinion clearly labelled as such.
What is risible is the attempts to spin the polls as showing some kind of *objective* support for such notions by inventing such ideas as ‘preferred pm 12 months out’ as an important predictor, indeed more important than ‘preferred pm 6 months out’, or the existence of a non-observed lag between increased preferred PM and increased voting intentions.
Molotov, you’ve been drinking too many cocktails at four in the morning!
This was a totally expected poll after the events of the past week.
It will reinforce that view that JWH is a lame duck PM, in spite of his dawn walks. This snowball is gathering more and more snow as it rolls down the hill towards the election. The momentum has probably become impossible to stop.
Now there will be open dissent in Liberal ranks, unless they are all on a suicide mission.
Peter the Pusillanimous should put on his cloak of courage and take up his sword of determination and confront the cause of the Coalition’s impending downfall.
Peter, this is your last chance to become PM mate. If you don’t strike now you can look forward to an early retirement with a tax free income of about $140,000 a year.
Do you really want to be PM or were you just pretending?
Do you have what it takes to become PM?
It’s now or never.
Is there anyone else in Coalition ranks who will take up the challenge?
Or are you all so cowed?
Malcolm, what about you? Do you have the courage to step forward when your party needs you? Or do you prefer to remain Opposition Leader for ten years?
Is there nobody?
Brecht had it right. Abbot should take note; it’s time to dissolve the people and elect another.
Possible Beobachter front-page editorial on election day: “You’re all f*cking crazy!!!”
Richard Jones, I have been arguing the Costello ‘roll’ for a while, but I gave up when he stated for a second time last month he wouldn’t be challenging. Whether he’s keeping his powder dry, or just hasn’t got the ticker, I don’t know. If Howard goes before the election it will have to be by stepping down.
How likely is that? I can’t see him stepping down, although his standard line is he’ll stay as long as the party needs him. If the backbenchers start getting jumpy (more jumpy), we could see pressure mount for an early retirement for JWH. If I was a backbencher I think I’d be pushing for that and not just sitting and waiting for electoral oblivion.
Tony Abbott’s comment reflects the problem of group think extended over a long enough period – you believe your own propaganda as defining the way the world works.
Governments need to have a licensed jester to remind them that reality is not in their control and will one day get up and mug them.
In regards to Coalition regime change, let’s consider the psychology of the people who will decide whether this happens or not; the backbench…
Currently we would have most backbenchers scared witless by the alarming uniformity of the polls, which all spell a Coalition train wreck. All those perks, super and prospects of career glory are evaporating before their eyes.
So it’s natural that some of them would start thinking about possible alternatives to turn the situation around.
But these are people that really do believe that John Howard really is a magician, who really can pull rabbits out of hats. But nagging doubts are starting to eat away at them as John is looking more and more like Bullwinkle (”that trick never works”) rather than Houdini.
But the obvious alternative is even scarier; an untried Peter Costello who is disliked by large swathes of the electorate. Plus these people really are conservative (even if the leadership is radical, albeit in a clever, subtle way).
So here we have some major internal tension amongst the backbenchers between their long held perception of how their world works (Howard in control, Coalition reigning supreme) and the cold poll reality smacking them in the face.
Psychological theory would call this a classic case of cognitive dissonance. And the theory of cognitive dissonance says that this is fertile ground to trigger new beliefs and new behaviours.
So I would say at the very least we will shortly see some more Coalition footsoldiers breaking the line and calling for leadership change, as the contagion of panic starts to take hold and spread.
Even though it will be a close election (I still think that), I am beginning to think of possibly allowing myself to perhaps wonder if maybe there’s a chance that Australians might finally toss out the most incompetent government of recent memory.
Federally that is … sorry NSW and TAS, you’re stuck with your state govs for a while yet…
I agree Rob. No challenge from Costello. That particular horse bolted a long time ago. Tuckey will continue to stir the pot, but not much else.
On another front… $10 says Bush does a no-show at APEC. He has a lot on his plate in September back home.
When do they start referring to it as “the deeply unpopular Howard government” and the “deeply unpopular Prime Minister”. I want a little less “statesman under seige” from the media and a little more “political hack with no friends”
At what point does the thinking in the Coalition bunker start to shift from ‘what do we have to do to win this?’ to ‘what do we have to do to avoid a blow-out?’.
This, I would humbly suggest, is an important factor someone should start to think about.
A small loss could see a coalition government back on the government benches in but a few years – a blow out could see it in the cheap seats for a decade or more…
So, what’s the thinking out there?
There are enough polls now confirming Rudd’s dominance for the Coalition footsoldiers to call for a leadership change.
Today’s “war” meeting called by Howard will allow them to air their grievances.
They may come to an agreement that Howard should step down.
I can’t understand why Costello doesn’t make a move now. What more incentive does he need?
There’s time for the dust to settle in the next four months.
Costello or Turnbull or whoever could reshuffle out the old faces, bring in some talented women – where are they – and reduce the average age of Cabinet by five to ten years, as Gordon Brown has done.
That’s absolutely the only thing that will save the jobs of some of those backbenchers.
Even if the new PM didn’t actually win, at least he would save some of his colleagues and be able to provide a decent and strong opposition.
It’s not in anyone’s interests to have a mere dispirited rump in opposition.
What a leadership change would also do would be to grab the headlines for a week or two as the media examine the new leader’s potential and also cover the host of new faces brought in.
John Howard should gracefully resign either for spurious health reasons or in a magnanimous gesture to save some of his colleagues from political oblivion. And he should do is soon.
There are enough polls now confirming Rudd’s dominance for the Coalition footsoldiers to call for a leadership change.
Today’s “war” meeting called by Howard will allow them to air their grievances.
They may come to an agreement that Howard should step down.
I can’t understand why Costello doesn’t make a move now. What more incentive does he need?
There’s time for the dust to settle in the next four months.
Costello or Turnbull or whoever could reshuffle out the old faces, bring in some talented women – where are they – and reduce the average age of Cabinet by five to ten years, as Gordon Brown has done.
That’s absolutely the only thing that will save the jobs of some of those backbenchers.
Even if the new PM didn’t actually win, at least he would save some of his colleagues and be able to provide a decent and strong opposition.
It’s not in anyone’s interests to have a mere dispirited rump in opposition.
What a leadership change would also do would be to grab the headlines for a week or two as the media examine the new leader’s potential and also cover the host of new faces brought in.
John Howard should gracefully resign either for spurious health reasons or in a magnanimous gesture to save some of his colleagues from political oblivion. And he should do it soon.
Sorry about that. I changed the penultimate word from is to it.
Howard’s not deeply unpopular, that’s the curious thing. At best it seems up to 50% think he’s doing a reasonable job, but are minded to retire him in a few months. Costello on the contrary is deeply unpopular: if he wasn’t I daresay the nervous nellies on the govt benches would have turned to him months ago.
As for Stirton’s comment that the polls are ‘rock solid’ I wonder if he was meaning ‘unshakeable in their consistency’? ‘Rock solid’ suggests immovable – I’d like to see any Neilsen data that showed Labor’s polling to be araldited.
Richard Jones said:
“Malcolm, what about you? Do you have the courage to step forward when your party needs you? Or do you prefer to remain Opposition Leader for ten years?”
If there is one thing Malcolm is *not*, it is a loser. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that right now he is having conversations behind closed doors trying to figure out if there is a way out of this mess, lead by him of course. Costello doesn’t have the cojones to do it, but Malcolm certainly does. His biggest problem is that many of the Libs don’t fully trust him and still see JWH as the saviour who lead the Coalition out of the wilderness in 1996 – there are many who simply wouldn’t turn against Howard.
I think it would be incredibly interesting if Malcolm does make a go – but before he does he will want to try and ensure he has a fairly stable support base behind him. One thing is for sure though, Malcolm will not be hanging out in Opposition for years on end – he will jump ship if it looks like his dreams of PM are going nowhere in the next 6 years. If he did roll Howard, I wouldn’t discount his chances – Malcolm is very savvy and I think he would end up appealing to a lot of punters. His core problem is the Bronwyn Bishops of the party. I think they would rather face a slaughter than give up on the Come-back Kid from Bennelong.
It tickles me pink that these Howard zealots must be driving Malcolm crazy right now!
Sideline Eye said:
“But the obvious alternative is even scarier; an untried Peter Costello who is disliked by large swathes of the electorate.”
Costello is never going to be leader – it just ain’t gonna happen. Abbott, Turnbull or Nelson will make the push. Nelson was looking like a safe bet (vocal support from Howard supporters like Bronwyn Bishop), but that seems to have evaporated over the past two months.
Fine analysis Mr Mitchell.
My only concern is that, by mistake our ‘inept’ opposion may yet win if the electorate continues to ’sleepwalk’ towards the election.
Possibly our good government could be recalled to simplify the voting system. Maybe by reducing the electorate to one? And I would be honoured to nominate you Mr Mitchell for that most important role. I know you haven’t made up your mind as to whom you will support
but I’m certain you would make the right decision when the time comes to re-elect and return our PM to Kirribili House in time for the cricket season and the Sydney Test.
AC Nielsen conducted its December 2006 poll on the weekend prior to the ALP leadership change, and in anticipation of Rudd taking over also asked how people would vote if Rudd became leader. The vote with Kim Beazley remaining was, ALP 41 Coalition 39, and with Rudd as leader was ALP 48 Coalition 39.
This July poll shows ALP 49 Coalition 39, what more is there to say.
What is more interesting is the comment (not shown in the tables) in The Age this morning of the state by state beakdown – NSW 63 – 37, Vic 54 – 46, QLD 52 – 48, though the latter is qualified by the statement that it is a small sample.
The question this raises is – How are state by state analyses done if there are small samples in the smaller states? and normally one wouldn’t have considered QLD to be small. How strict are the quotas on age, sex, location etc.??
In fact the way I read it in The Age the Gov’t was ahead in Qld 52-48.
Actually, I think Qld had Labor behind 52-48. Remember that the national sample is 1412, so less than 500 from NSW and about 300 from Vic and Qld.
John Howard seems to looking like Graham Arnold at present
“Costello is never going to be leader – it just ain’t gonna happen. Abbott, Turnbull or Nelson will make the push. ”
Abbot, Turnbull or Nelson are mad if they do. (And the rest of the party is mad if Abbott succeeds
If they do lose in November, the next leader of the Liberal Party will never be PM without creating history, or going the triple bypass route. There hasn’t been a one-term government since the Depression, and no federal leader of the Liberal Party (or its predecessors since Fusion) has ever lead the party to the next election after leading the party to a defeat.
If (i) Sampling was conducted in all states and territories and (ii) sample sizes in each state and territory were in proportion to votes cast in the 2004 election then the sample sizes would have been approx NSW 464, Vic 363, Qld 265, WA 132, SA 113, Tas 38, ACT
Sorry, pressed Submit by accident before completing.
The QLD sample of 265 has margin of error of 6% at 95% level.
If anyone can supply me with a decent photo of Janelle Saffin, or any photo at all of Colin Robinson or Michael Towke, I would be grateful. (The NSW Liberal webmaster obviously thinks the identity of their candidates is a state secret.)
The St George & Sutherland Shire Leader has Michael: http://www.theleader.com.au/2007/07/have_a_captain_cook_at_your_ne.php
“Howard’s job approval rating remains close to 50% (49 in this poll).”
Graeme, 49% of people polled approve of the job Howard is doing of getting himself kicked out.
Martin, thanks.
Adam (wrt Robinson) can you think of any Liberal parliamentarians, or prominent candidates, who have been members of a trade union? (excluding the AMA of course
No, but some must have been – those who have been police officers such as Wood and Parry, for example. Paul Marek (National, Capricornia 1996-98) was a local officeholder in the AMWU and a member of the CFMEU.
Yes, I didn’t think it would be unprecedented.
But it is certainly unusual.
The entry on your site is a fake. It has been repeated on other sites as it appears on yours. There is also a fake comment from Dennis Shanahan.
It would be reasonable to expect the entries be removed or marked as a fake.
Sid Marris
The Australian
Canberra
Abbott may well like to dissolve the people and elect a new bunch but they are only half way through repopulating Australia under the 457 visas and, half of them only speak Mandarin. Maybe he can transfer some across from his parallel universe.
Costello wont win and may do more damage than good. Turnbull is too new to gain the people’s confidence. The rest of the Rodent Pack are simply too frightening to consider. I suspect they are stuck with Howard who will be the best one to limit the damage.
Maybe they should take advantage of the bad situation to split the party into Facists and Liberals.
Well, there’s definitely a solid trend for the ALP here.
I don’t know what the betting market thinks it’s doing, but I’d say the smart money is on Labor at this point.
I prefer to think of it as a parody, Sid, but as you wish. I had actually noted this at the bottom of the post (belatedly I admit) – I have now moved it to the top and surrounded it with neon lights.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Perth
Thanks for the pointless interjection by Sid Marris. It seems more than a few at The Australia are still coming to grips with ‘the internets’, and the concept of satire.
I now understand what the infamous editorial meant when they said political bloggers are “self appointed”. The Australian wants the power to appoint and regulate them by determining what is “reasonable”, and determine what they can and can’t write on their own blogs!
Or maybe Sid Marris post in this thread was satire, and thus should be marked “FAKE”?
They are sensitive little petals at The Australian aren’t they?
There there Sid. Have a Bex and a good lie-down.
You’re telling me that WASNT Chris Mitchell?!?
But but but… it sounded exactly like him and everything.
I’m afraid the circle of trust has been broken William – I heard you were one of those online political bloggers that doesnt own Newspoll and thus doesnt understand the yooniverse.
Thank god Sid was around to save me from my own gullibility.
I’m canceling my subscription to this intertube site and am going to read a real journalist….. like Piers.
The essence of Shanahan’s rebuttal blog post last week was that he had to ignore margins of error because he had to report SOMETHING. In other words, in his view, the Truth should be subservient to confecting a story at all costs. With that sort of attitude he should be somewhere in France teaching post-modernism in a cultural studies institute.
Yet when obviously satirical material is posted on a blog, all of a sudden there should be disclaimers and provisos informing the public that the post doesn’t actually bare a relation to reality! If that standard applies, why don’t Shanahan’s articles appear on the opinion pages, or at least carry disclaimers that say “there is no statistical basis supporting the claims made in this article, this is an opinion piece”?
Martin B,
I believe that Tony Abbott was a member of the Liquor trades Union and of the Australian Journalists Association. I wouldn’t read too much into it. It’s bit like Victorian principals being members of the AEU. Hardly any of them have any commitment to the principles of unionism, to the principles of their profession or to their classroom “colleaguesâ€, but they still see benefits in being union members.
Bwomofz,
I am quite accepting of being excluded from he more experienced and respected pseph people, but I have already posted more than once my prediction that Labor will pick up 22 seats. This is not a call, but as the months roll by, it becomes less likely that John Howard can do a miracle, and a miracle is what it will take. If these figures occurred throughout the lead-up to the 1998 or 1996 or 1983 election, no one would be considering the possibility of a Liberal victory. It’s only Mr Howard’s miraculous clawbacks in 2001 and 2004 that make anyone consider him a possibility.
The state breakdowns in Newspoll are for three months and thus have larger samples, which should make them a little more reliable than ACNielsen breakdowns.
Some posters have made absurd statements about terrorist attacks being organised to help with the election, statements so nutty that they do not deserve a response. I am certainly not part of that conspiraphile group, but I wonder how the news of today’s ordered release of Dr Haneef on bail by the magistrate and his subsequent incarceration on the ministerial order of Kevin Andrews will play out politically. Given the evidence so far revealed in the public domain, it’s a big call, even Kafkaesque. Some may see it helping the government by creating fear in the community. I think it is more likely to create ridicule and outrage – and not just from the usual suspects.
sid marris is the Australians I.T. reporter(editor)
so i think he may be trying to help?
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,21425992-15306,00.html
? Help who, cynic? How?
Liberal union members: Dennis Napthine was a an office-bearer in the Victorian Public Service Association. I would presume that Liberal MPs who are ex-teachers were probably mostly former union members. From the 1980s it became Liberal policy to discourage union membership and thus Liberal candidates were less likely to have been union members but before then Liberal MPs from unionised occupations would probably have been union members.
Fulvio not all who work at the Oz are rightoid righties-some even have a sense of social justice-notice i said some!
Sid baits the blogosphere.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22082957-11949,00.html
I’ll have a quiet word with Sid next time I see him.
NOTE: The real Chris Mitchell probably doesn’t use a Hotmail address – PB
An agent of the GG posting to a blog to correct quite obvious satire… omg what is that proverb about interesting interesting days? Or is it a curse?
William can I write a fake editiorial from the AG suspending all legal processes in the country and determining that the AG will be the sole legal deciderer (Bush style)?
Steve,
It all becomes clear!
Sid was actually trolling pollbludger for hits.
Sid, mate – you have to leave a link first!
Its still all statistical piffle though.
They just don’t understand the internet. Putting blogs on your home page (then closing them after 16 comments) because they are kewl doesn’t automatically mean one has embraced the free exchange of ideas that, at its best, the internet enables.
“…can you think of any Liberal parliamentarians, or prominent candidates, who have been members of a trade union?”
It’s going back a long way now, but Askin was originally a bank clerks union (as I think it was called then) official. Askin claimed that he once tried to asffiliate with the trades & labour council but was ignored and/or laughed at. Then along came Chifley’s bank nationalisation attempt and most went firmly into the Liberal camp.
I noticed Sid Marris, made a complaint that the article at the top of this thread was a fake and,
“It would be reasonable to expect the entries be removed or marked as a fake”.
Now to be certain of the correct definiton of the word “fake”, I turned to my trusty Pocket Oxford Dictionary, fifth edition 1969.
After dusting off the cover and removing the beads, love, peace and flower stickers and other assorted regalia from that decade, including the phone no. of a girl named Mountain Dew, I looked up the word.
Fake = do up, make specious. So then I had to look up “specious”, which is defined as fair-seeming or plausible.
Now if I understand this correctly, the complaint is that the article is trying to “do up” the content and make it seem plausible and fair-seeming, which if logic follows; rather than William Bowe being censured for his efforts, he should be offered a position on staff at “The Australian”. Perhaps even the political correspondent, dare it be said?
This post has disappointed me.
I expect so much of pollbludger and to see juvenile villification of someone just because you disagree with them has really lowered my opinion of the site in general.
The post implies he holds these type of views, even if it is done tongue-in-cheek.
It’s very unfair and childish, and I think most of you realise this, behind all the schoolboy snickering.
Sorry, cynic, I read Sid Marris’ post as being accusatory rather than informative, but I now see both interpretations are open.
And I too am sure there are some good people at The Australian .
Who Fulvio, the cleaners?
To be fair, I think George Megalogensis is all right.
To Martin J and Lord D, thank you, I have misread the numbers it was Coalition 52 – ALP 48 reported in The Age for QLD tODAY.
Today’s Northern Star has a photo of Janelle Saffin.:
http://www.northernstar.com.au/localnews/storydisplay.cfm?storyid=3741598&thesection=localnews&thesubsection=&thesecondsubsection=
Maybe there is someone out there with a much better grasp of opinion polling stats than I have that can help …
If AC Neilsen samples are proportionally correct, there is something odd about the numbers given this morning.
Assuming that NSW is 33% of the sample, Vic 25% of the sample, and we have state breakdowns for those states, this leaves the ALP on 56 – 44 in the rest of the country. Now they have already said QLD on 48 (on a small sample), and it is generally accepted that WA is not good for the ALP, and they don’t poll in Tasmania or the ACT (as they always refer to 5 capital cities).
The question is …..
1. Is SA over represented?
2. Is NSW over represented?
3. Or has the sample generally gone a bit askew?
Fortune – everything we have written about DS and the GG over the past 12 months is of their own doing. A reasonably sound and accurate political analysis has been driven into self gratifying crock of bubbly poo. The stoush last week showed how incomprehensibly bad the journalism and editorial abilities had become. The retributive “attack” on Crikey, Mumble and bloggers in general was evidence of that.
The rubbish posted above by Sid only fans the flames. Personally, I thought the original post it quite clever.
It was a joke – obvious, tame and quite disproportionate to the reaction of yours. May I suggest we remember 2 things – you have don’t have to agree with what is written and you don’t have to come to the blog at all.
I just talked to a senior Liberal from Lismore whom I have known for many years and he believes Janelle Saffin will win. I think he’s right.
One would assume that Malcolm Turnbull’s plan to pipe Clarence River water to SEQ would help the coalition in Page.
This comment is a fake.
So is this one.
The problem with your introduction William is that it was TOO good. It sounded too much like a political analysis from the Australian, so the satire would have been lost on the poor little things
Oh well .. it’s good to know that they know we’re keeping an eye on their reporting. Who knows? We might be able to assist them in their commentary.
Anyway, my thoughts on AC Nielsen.. Howard’s history .. somethings gotta give soon… I’m amazed at how calm they all seem… at least in public. Except for Tuckey, but he’s a loose cannon at the best of times.
And has anyone noticed how quiet Rudd has been lately? Have I tuned out or do I detect a whiff of the small target strategy given his handy lead in the polls (and probably a little burnt from the IR policy fiasco, so not wanting to reveal too much that might be criticised)?
I wonder if the complaint came in, simply because Crikey picked up this thread on their Blogwatch? See here:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-and-Arts/20070716-Blogwatch.html
Thanks Oakeshott – um, how old is she?
That blog entry by Mr Marris is weird… ACN ‘vindicates’ the Oz? Bizarre. Truly bizarre.
If the polls are reflecting real voting intention, Rudd could go into a monastic retreat for the next four months and still have a good chance of winning.
Adam, I wont put words to what I think you’re thinking. Instead, I’ll put it down to a bad photo!
http://www.amwu.asn.au/images/sanews_0707.pdf
look at page 2
All I will say on the Government Gazette and their fragile egos is that if I hadn’t cancelled my subscription to their newspaper a few months ago, I would certainly be doing it now.
On the polls, it’s another shocker for Howard – but that’s hardly news. This government needs a COMPLETELY different strategy. The scare tactics, the character assassination, the heavy-handed paternalism, and all the war and terror talk is not working. The public has changed. They are not just looking for a set of new faces in the top jobs but a new brand of politics, especially one that does not involve lies, exploiting the weak and vulnerable, and appealing to the worst sides of human nature. People want to feel good again. They want HOPE, not fear. And they want to feel proud of their country, instead of being a weak and hopeless appendage to George Bush and the US Republican party just so Howard can have his little ego boost.
In short, the country has shifted a little to the left while Howard and his old dogs have shifted far to the right, almost in fascist territory. What did we do to deserve such a grubby government?
Frankly, I don’t think Howard knows how to be or do anything other than his old tricks. The Libs are now firmly stuck, that is, unless they get rid of Howard.
The Lib candidate in the 2006 SA state election for the seat of Kuarna was a union delegate so he told me
From the description of Michael Towke, I thought I might have tutored him in Engineering mathematics at Sydney Uni about 5 years agom and after seeing a photo from the link, yes, I did tutor him.
That’s the Liberal Party for you – nothing but union hacks!
Bill, thanks for the photo of Cathy Perry. Can anyone tell me how to extract photos from PDFs?
Adam, I do a screen capture, if that’s of use to you. This one’s good:
http://www.etrusoft.com/
Not Cathy ADAM me haha very funny
http://www.amwu.asn.au/images/sanews_0707.pdf
is the AMWU newsletter with my profile in it. Bad pic but good profile and support from the AMWU
William, brilliant! Thanks.
Oh and on the back page with the heading ‘ Campaign ramps another notch’ i was there too but on a later shift
Oh! Bill, I’m sorry, I assumed you were sending it to me because of the photo of Cathy Perry, who is No 3 on the ALP Senate ticket (and will probably take NSD’s seat), and I didn’t scroll down to the photo of you. I like the one you sent me before better.
Blackburnseph at 5:38
I agree with you that the results do look a bit strange. If sampling is restricted to the five mainland states and sample sizes based on the votes cast in 2004 then the results would have been approximately as follows
NSW 500 63% 2PP = 315
Vic 400 54% 2PP = 216
Qld 250 48% 2PP = 120
Total 1150 Resulting in 2PP of 651 = 56.5%
WA 140
SA 120
Now 58% of 1410 is 818 so to reach this figure the 2PP figure for SA and WA combined would need to be 167/260 = 64%. Given that WA at best for Labor would be 50:50 this is clearly impossible.
So do i Adam bad head day
But if i got you her pic as well then im not always that bad hey Adam
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/senate5.shtml
Bill you are a prince among far-left ratbags
wink
I can’t believe the twits who thought the faux Mitchell thingie was serious. I read it. I laughed. Does Mr. Marris have humour deficiency syndrome or what. What I find most amusing is that the GG having positioned themselves, on the whole, to be the GG, that they then don’t ‘get’ why they get as dumped upon as much as the Govt.. ROFL.
Just to puncture our cosy collective outrage about the evil rightwing press for a minute, tonight’s PM report on the Hanif case was a the most grossly one-sided piece of ABC leftwing propaganda I have heard for, oh, several days. Hanif’s lawyer and John Dowd were given five minutes each to say how wicked Hanif’s detention is. Andrews and Ruddock got about 10 seconds each, but they are politicians so they don’t count as balance against the lawyers. Tony Burke also got 10 seconds, *preceded* by an ABC journalist’s comment that of course he was only supporting Hanif’s detention out of political opportunism – an opinion presented as an unrebuttable fact. I do try to defend the ABC against its critics, but what can you say when they do stuff like this? And, unlike The Australian, all this editorialising is paid for by your taxes.
Bill, thanks for the photo of Cathy Perry. Can anyone tell me how to extract photos from PDFs?
Buy AcrobatPro then:
1. Save all images as TIFFs or
2. Use the crop tool to copy and paste
I’m looking forward to the Libs doing 3 terms in opposition because they are in denial [in de Egypt?] – look at Abbott, Hockey, spinning the economy and this Sawford rubbish from their supporters.
Abbott doesn’t even look slightly like he believes the polls, and will therefore learn nothing from defeat. They will drift further to the Right and away from any chance of winning. They will have Dutch Auctions on how many lesbians they can burn on one pyre.
They will regard the few seats they retain as “sacred ground” to be fought over by the factions and to hell with the traitorous remainder of what would otherwise be winnable seats. A bit like the Tory cast and crew who took until David Cameron to find someone to drop the shibboleths and kill the sacred cows before leading them back to sanity.
Another option, Geoff, though one that involves spending money. I thank you though for earlier informing me that this fine product could also be used for converting PDFs to HTML, allowing tables to be cut and pasted into Excel.
On the question of bias, did you see Tom Switzer’s attempt to mow down the ABC in today’s GG? Full of the usual furphies and concoctions – big Tom writing to the plebs from on high, posing as the most objective observer of politics in the land – he wishes! What gets me about these guys is that they never acknowledge their own biases as they go about lambasting everyone else’s – but I guess that’s the bliss of ignorance mixed with arrogance …
Mecurius – you crack me up man!
Colin Robinson, the Lib in Parramatta is a member of the ETU who, according to Graham Jaeske “supports John Howard’s Workchoices Legislation” This means that he should be either expelled from the ETU or resign his candidature in my mind.
Sid Marris is a fine man, just a little to defensive that’s all. We all get like that with our workmates..why I remember when I worked with…..
Towke was a member of the ALP which, I assume, means he must have been a member of a Union.
Bronwyn Bishop would have had to have been a member of Actors Equity when she starred on “People’s Court” in the late 60’s.
Alby Schultz was a member of the Butchers Union I think.
Mike Gallacher MLC (NSW) was a Executive Member of the Police Association (I think Peter Dutton was a member of the QLD Police Association).
The list goes on….
Rumour has it that a growing number of Liberals are saying they have to lose to ever get the NSW Branch back to normal.
Jas, perhaps you are thinking of the Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times”
Does anyone know anything about the process by which Michel Taouk, ALP member, became Michael Towke, Liberal candidate?
I like using Snippy for screen capture. Works a treat.
http://www.bhelpuri.net/Snippy/
Oh and may I say that Brent and Bowe should be political reporters at the Australian, it would be a seamless transition
I saw Kerry O’Briens attempt to nail Andrews to the wall over the Haneef fiasco on the 7.30 Report. Andrews did better sidestepping than most rugby leaguers. O’Brien got what he wanted though – a public airing of the concern that the magistrate allows him back into society and Andrews “overrules”.
In other words, the evidence was enough for the magistrate to allow this man back into society on a very minor bail where the government decides that the evidence is enough to keep him detained.
Coalition will have to do some fast talking for this to stay a plus. Potential to damage – especially if the guy is found not guilty on not enough evidence.
Adam – good question. All I know is that he ran a security guard business, had a very brief period in the Army Reserves and lives with his girlfriend in Redfern – meet the new Liberal Party Religious Right! Changed his name earlier this year (I didn’t think those in The Shire took kindly to our Lebenese Bretheren – wasn’t there a riot or something?) and hey presto – Marie Ficarra and David Clarke embrace the new Messiah. He wasn’t in the Liberal Party for long but I can;t find anyone in the ALP who remembers him. HOWEVER, I do know that the Labor Party have budgeted to poll Cook this week and may be putting up a star “Anglo” candidate – a former Australian cricketer who lives in the area maybe??
Adam asked:
um, how old is she?
Here is the answer: Janelle Saffin bio
Nick, according to the ALP website, the endorsed candidate for Cook is Mark Buttigieg, which I think is a Maltese name. Is he going to withdraw in favour of a star Anglo candidate, to help keep the wogs out of Sylvania Waters?
ALP is betting on Towke being unelectable given he is not from the Shire, fails the Shire pigmentation test and knocked out two or three of the Shire’s favourite sons, being Tynan, Speakman and to a lesser extent Fletcher. My snout tells me there’s a bloke who lives in the Shire, albeit the western end and just out of Cook (in Hughes) who would get the 14 percent swing before he got out of bed. You may of heard of him. Name of Waugh. Buttigieg will be retired hurt but may be called up for a later Sheffield Shield test.
How distasteful. Sometimes I’m glad to be a Mexican.
I understand Mark Buttigieg (who ran last election) is the endorsed ALP candidate for Cook.
Bit hard to undo this, but I guess anything is possible with a deal.
Would like to know how many times in the past endorsed candidates have stepped aside for celebrity parachutes.
A “Wetback”, you mean?
When was the last time a resident of Redfern was endorsed as a Liberal candidate?
Sideline – mate, that list is long but distinguished. In recent years it happened in Kingsford Smith (Garrett), Bennelong (McKew), Macarthur (Fahey)….
As they say in the ALP “In Mark We Trust”
Adam – to my recollection this must be a first. All very weird and surreal for long term Liberal watchers. Treachery is everywhere.
So what’s so wrong with this Towke guy anyway?
William could call his next thread “Don’t mention the Waugh”
Possum Comitatus Says:
July 16th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
You’re telling me that WASNT Chris Mitchell?!?
But but but… it sounded exactly like him and everything.
I’m afraid the circle of trust has been broken William – I heard you were one of those online political bloggers that doesnt own Newspoll and thus doesnt understand the yooniverse.
Thank god Sid was around to save me from my own gullibility.
I’m canceling my subscription to this intertube site and am going to read a real journalist….. like Piers.
POSSUM – That entry above was soooo funny I had to copy n paste it for anyone who missed it. thanks for giving me a laugh after a crappy Monday.
Yeah – Possum and Mecurius ROCK. They are better than The Simpsons.
I note that the probability (as measured by the bookie) of an ALP win has drifted up to 55% on the back of the Newspoll and ACNeilson data.
It does seem low given the margin and stability of the polls – but as others have noted the current poll give a conditional indication of the ALP vote. The key conditions being
1. No (effective) Wedge issue
2. No change of leadership
The bookie make a market on the unconditional probability – ie one of the above could happen.
I’d be interested in people’s option of the chances of these events, but by making up come guesstamates the conditional probablity of the ALP winning pops out at around 70%.
Which all goes to say that no news or minor news is good news for Rudd.
Which bookie Albert?
Centrebet has the ALP at $1.83 to the Coalition’s $1.95. Anybody know where Sussex Street is?
I noted above some reporting a poll suggesting Labor on the wrong side of, what was it, 52-48 in Queensland. BUNKUM !!
You can be assured from one who works in Swanny’s Street (Nundah:QLD) that a HUGE swing is on in QLD suburbia and even Beatties recalcitrance (refusing to step back from city council amalgamations) wont save some provincial/rual seats up here from getting a hell of a scare this time around.
Strop – Please Explain?
rual*rural, apologies (again) to the pedants.
PS: My money says Turnbull wont back a losing horse and will save his Turnbull for PM campaign for AFTER this one- He didnt become a gazillionairre by being stupid. Costello’s race is run, he didnt even get out of the stalls did he ?
Which bit do you want me to explain Nick ?
STROP,
The poll suggesting 48-52 in Qld wasn’t just “a poll”. It was the ACNielsen poll that we are talking about.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/labor-keeps-whopping-lead-in-opinion-polls/2007/07/15/1184438148702.html
I don’t believe it either and the point of my post is that the statewise figures given in the article seem to contradict an overall 58-42 2PP
Nick – Betfair – which generatly has the narrowest spread – has ALP @ 1.79 and Colalition @ 2.2
Martin J Says:
July 16th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
In fact the way I read it in The Age the Gov’t was ahead in Qld 52-48.
Lord D Says:
July 16th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Actually, I think Qld had Labor behind 52-48. Remember that the national sample is 1412, so less than 500 from NSW and about 300 from Vic and Qld
Does that (above) help Nick ?
Got it Martin, thanks mate.
Strop – which seats and how will it be a scare??
This last few days (Cook aside) I’m really starting to feel that there will be a change of Government and the longer Howards leaves it the more frustrated the electorate will get. Just can;t get excited about seeing Keating with a smile from ear to ear though.
My money is on Julie Bishop as Leader, Turnbull as Deputy and then after a few losses Turnbull and Robb as the new Liberal Dream team.
Something that we can thank the Australian for are the Nicholson animations. The current one of JWH singing “Yesterday” is a beauty.
It’s curious that no matter how right-wing newspapers are, they can’t find right-wing cartoonists. Nicholson started his career on Tribune, and Bill Leak is also a lefty. The last genuine right-wing cartoonist on a daily paper was the awful Larry Pickering (a Liberal candidate in 1974), whose idea of humour was drawing large penises everywhere. To find a *good* right-wing cartoonist you have to go back to George Molnar on the SMH in the 50s, and to the brilliant Ted Scorfield at the Bulletin, whose attacks on Evatt were legendary. Les Tanner started out as a right-winger, also at the Bulletin, but got more left-wing the older he got.
Although I’ve shared the consensus view that Turnbull will probably hold on, I’m beginning to question that assumption. If there’s anything like a 10 – 12% swing in NSW – as suggested by the State break-down from Newspoll (and given some dubious confirmation by Neilsen), it won’t matter what personal vote he can muster. So if he’s to be a near-future candidate for the leadership, he may first have to find a seat from fairly thin pickings.
In any case, if there is a serious wipe-out for the Government, would Malcolm be willing to do the hard yards of two or more terms in opposition?
Nick Says:
July 16th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
Strop – which seats and how will it be a scare??
Im going to keep this breif because Ive already posted 2-3 large blogs on this but here in QLD the non-scare (you can take it to the bank seats) on current indicators will be Blair, Bonner, Herbert, Longman, Moreton and Petrie(6)- and I am being conservative here.
If Laming (who survived being referred to the DPP but is now being questioned over other practices with a ‘ghost staff’ debacle) isnt JC himself you can add Bowman (7).
The ‘big scare’ seats will be Hinkler and the three vacant one’s Adam has mentioned elsewhere as within the bounds of possibility, Flynn (new), Forde and Leichhardt. I wouldnt be surprised if Labor wins any of these ‘big scare’ seats- Why a scare ? (a) These seats have 7.9 + 2PP notional margins and three of them have been in the Coalitions hands since 1996 or earlier.
Strop, Costello will accept the poisoned chalice and Turnbull will win his own tilt at a time of his choosing. Costello will lack the patience to do it all again and will accept some offers from the industry.
and.. I havent said anything about Ryan,Fairfax or Mcpherson.
Peter, why would Turnbull bail? He’s on a mission.
Amber Dekstris Says:
July 16th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
Strop, Costello will accept the poisoned chalice and Turnbull will win his own tilt at a time of his choosing. Costello will lack the patience to do it all again and will accept some offers from the industry.
I hope Costello accepts the chalice as you put it Amber-it would be read as ’saving face’ but splatter egg all over the Liberal Party. I hope your right.
I think STROP is right, Costello was too gutless to challenge Howard last year, and he would be too gutless to be opposition leader.
Would Costello want ‘I lead the Coalition to a loss akin to 1983′ on his CV; I dont think so, but politics is a strange animal to that will not be tamed.
STROP if there is a really big swing in Qld (and as always I say “if”), then Ryan will go. Michael Johnson is decidedly on the nose and Ryan is a classic “doctors wives” seat where issues like climate change will hurt the Libs. Don’t forget that Ryan was the only seat in Qld to vote for the republic in 1999.
By chalice I meant Opposition Leader not PM. Howard is man enough to lead to defeat, a quality Costello lacks. The machine will decide the battle is lost, allow Howard to lose, allow Costello to lead while in Opposition and allow Turnbull to have a tilt. Handing over to Costello will give the Libs the “makeover” that won’t wash this close to an election.
Howard doesn’t have many redeeming qualities but if he thinks a Costello defeat is a bigger disaster then a Howard defeat, Howard will take the ignominy for the sake of the party. He does believe some of the things he says.
Howard should’ve handed over last year — he would’ve ridden off into the sunset a true Liberal hero. His ego got in the way but he is prepared to pay the price.
Libs must regain power as soon as humanly possible so as to minimise the winding back by Labor of WorkChoices. This winding back will take time so Libs can afford to lose govt if they can regain it quickly and set in stone the new WC regime.
The question then becomes, when Libs do get back in, will the govt be dominated by people who care as much about WC as Howard did?
No it won’t and thus is writ the tragedy of JW Howard, the man with the tenacity to simply not go away, to become PM by default, to take advantage of opportunity and advice, to position himself as potentially a modern party hero, but ultimately to leave a legacy of … nothing of any consequence.
I think STROP is right, Costello was too gutless to challenge Howard last year….
Simon Howson
Don’t agree. Costello knew he didn’t have the public and hence party support to give him a hope in Hades of winning, and just accepted that fact. If he hadn’t, and had challenged, what sort of position would he be in now? Much worse. It all boils down to his lack of any substantial public popularity, which means he will never be PM in his own right.
Arbie, I’m not sure that Howard’s hanging on to the leadership is entirely ego. I think we tend to speculate too much on individual pollies’ psychology. I suspect Howard stayed on for lack of anything better. He was often a laughing stock prior to 1996, but since then, he’s managed to win several elections. He even managed to increase the Coalition’s majority in 2004, by which time his jingoistic ’statesmanship’ was well-known, and his government was laden with plenty of pretty ugly baggage.
I wouldn’t assume he’s worried about his ‘legacy’ – in his mind, he’s probably already acheived everything he wanted, particularly with his ideologically-charged legislation, passed with Senate control (VSU, Telstra, anti-terror laws, and IR, among others).
As for his actual legacy, I would argue it’s far from inconsequential. Australia is a different country for having been governed by Howard, and not, I believe, for the better. My perspective is partisan, but still – Other than ‘managing’ the economy (and managing it well, for the already-wealthy), and tightening gun laws, I stuggle to think of any great contribution that Howard has made.
He’s shown himself to be an astute observer of public opinion, and opportunistic at every turn. Given his ideological preoccupations, and the fact that he was able to successfully ride a wave of anti-Keating, anti-PC, Hansonite hysteria, he was a suitable leader of sorts. Nonetheless, the Australia that he leaves behind will be one that is diminished in every respect, other than its imported plasma televisions.
Sorry, that last comment was for Amber, not Arbie.
>Don’t agree. Costello knew he didn’t have the public and hence party >support to give him a hope in Hades of winning, and just accepted that >fact. If he hadn’t, and had challenged, what sort of position would he be >in now? Much worse. It all boils down to his lack of any substantial public >popularity, which means he will never be PM in his own right.
Was Keating that popular with the general public when he went after Hawke? His main popularity was with the NSW Right, the press gallery, and himself, but not necessarily in that order. Unlike Costello, Keating knew that he had a better chance of seeing of Hewson than Hawke. Now, allegedly Howard told Costello that he could dispense with Beazley easily, but Costello countered saying that he doubted that the ALP would retain Beazley as the leader for the election. In other words, Costello knew what was going to happen, but didn’t act on it. Costello should’ve done what Keating did, resign to the back bench, then challenge Howard again now.
I say this as a person that thinks Howard has stayed on too long, I don’t think voters like Governments who hang around for over 10 years, and certainly not a government with the same leader. I don’t think the ALPs policies are all that different to what they would’ve been under Beazley, I think what the polls are showing is that people simply think the ALP will be competent under Rudd, but the main problem is the Government has been around too long without renewel at the top end.
This thread is taking a vacation. The Australian issue has probably played out anyway (until next Tuesday at least), but I’d be happier if we laid off it for a bit, for what my opinion is worth to you.