Reuters has just issued its semi-regular Poll Trend, a weighted composite of results from Morgan, Newspoll and ACNielsen (but not Galaxy, which has been kinder to the Coalition in recent months). Their current figure has Labor ahead 57.3-42.7; the long-term trend looks a little something like this:
Despite Monday’s ACNielsen, that much-touted trend towards the Prime Minister as preferred leader is evident in other polls:
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If you look at the primary figures, Nielsen 49\39, Newspoll 48\39 and Morgan 47.5\40.5 they are really not that different. It is important to remember that Morgan was taken face to face over two weekends and has picked up a movement not evident in Newspoll or Nielsen. Regardless they are all showing a hiding for the Coalition and I am sure the events of the last few days are not likely to improve things in Tuesdays Newspoll.
What this shows is that the movement back to the coalition prior to this week had not stalled and when you consider the tooing and froing of about 2% primary between Labor and Greens the ALP primary could be as low as 45
I’m not saying it’s an outlier vs other phone polls, but I think it’s an outlier vs the usual Morgan 2% pro-Labor bias. This bias has still been evident this year if you look at the graphs on Oz Politics under “Morgan Bias”. No doubt our Tory blogger will claim it really shows the govt ahead 51-49. If you take 2% off the Labor vote in this Morgan, it’s only 53-47 2PP, which I don’t like very much.
If this bounce was really caused by the Haneef affair, it is likely to be short lived. It appears now that the prosecution case was botched and may cannot be convicted on the evidence.
Also the Costello vs Howard kerfuffle will concentrate attention elsewhere.
Having said that I still believe the Coalition will make ground. These sort of results are just too good for Labor.
Lord D, the Storm should win the NRL title this year, assuming they aren’t hit with too many injuries.
Kevin Rudd was mobbed yesterday in Miranda – hardly a blue ribbon Labor area, although it’s a very marginal Labor seat at the state level.
It sure looks to me like Sydney’s DAILY TELEGRAPH newspaper is going to abandon Howard – Rudd’s getting some positive coverage, with the exception of Piers Zackermann’s weekly pro Liberal Party propoganda columns.
What it shows is that you shouldn’t take individual opinion polls too literally. Certainly the betting markets are heading south for the Coalition today with as much as 2.20 on offer. There wouldn’t be a better time to hook into the Coalition if people think they are on the brink of that big comeback.
blackburnpseph Says:
July 20th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Even if Fran Bailey should win McEwen this time – and I think McEwen and Corangamite are much more vulnerable than Deakin or McMillan – it will probably be her last term because it is hard not to see McEwen morphing into an outer suburban ALP seat after the next redistribution. …. and to be brutally honest …. she is no spring chicken ….
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The AEC may well make McEwen more suburban just like it did with Deakin some 30 years ago when they took the seat from the southern part of today’s McEwen and moved it into the Eastern Suburbs.
The last redribution acturally removed several suburbian booths from around Craigburn.
The problem against such a move is what does this do to seats like Indi, Bendigo, Ballarat and Murray, also based on inner city quotes I would expect some redrawing of several inner city seats i.e Kooyong is nearing the bottom of the quoter while Melbourne Ports is nearly over it if it isn’t already.
With population growth around areas like Melton, Werribee, Epping, Cranbourne, Narre Warrin and Berwick I suspect McEwen wont drift into Melbourne but may move toward Ballarat with Ballarat moving towards Melton (Northern end of Lalor
Some polling data summaries, primary votes.
Last 3 polls
Newspoll: ALP 48.8 Coalition 37.6
Morgan: ALP 48.7 Coalition 37.6
Nielsen: ALP 48.3 Coalition 39
Galaxy : ALP 46.3 Coalition 40.7
All pollsters.
May: ALP 49.7 Coalition 37.3
June: ALP 47.3 Coalition 39
July: ALP 48.2 Coalition 38.7
All polls since December
Morgan 22 polls: ALP 49.1 Coalition 37.8
Newspoll 15 polls: ALP 48 Coalition 37.6
Nielsen 7 polls: ALP 48.4 Coalition 37.7
Galaxy 4 polls: ALP 46.5 Coalition 39.8
All pollsters since Dec 48 polls: ALP 48.4 Coalition 37.9
All pollsters 48 polls TPP projection @ 58% flow to ALP 56.3/43.7
All pollsters June TPP projection @ 58% flow to the ALP 55.3/44.7
All pollsters July TPP projection @ 58% flow to the ALP 55.8/44.2
(Note, July is incomplete and June includes 2 Galaxy polls)
When the polls don’t go the way they desire “the come back is on” people argue that the polls indicate what is happening now and not what is going to happen. However when they move in the direction they desire all of a sudden the polls are telling us what is going to happen ie “the comeback is on”.
Does anyone know when we might here about possible charges being laid against the Queensland MPs?
A very interesting feature of the Morgan poll is the upwards trend in the “right direction” question. It now stands at around 55%. Evidently, the electorate isn’t in that sour a mood.
I would gladly take 53/47 at this point for the Coalition as a uniform swing of that nature would mean a net gain of 20 seats to Labor.However when you consider SA Tas probably still at 58/42(just a guess)and WA 50/50 does that mean NSW and/or QLD could be running better than 53/47.
The results that Aristotle has posted illustrates that there has been little change in the voting intentions all year. Whatever the “right direction” question might mean, at this point it does not seem to mean soft support for Labor.
A-C, maybe people think the country is headed in the right direction because they think Howard is on the way out. I think the question in the poll is meaningless and possibly misleading in terms of conclusions that might be drawn.
Aristotle, probably, it was certainly around that time. I tend to not remember the losses so well
Does any of the polling ask how the punter voted last time? While counting the number of people intending to vote ALP (say) is handy, it would be much more useful to count how many were intending to switch from ALP to LNC and from LNC to ALP. Change of government is by definition about change of vote.
The face to face is usually a few points higher than the phone polls so this TPP 55/45 would equate to a phone poll of TPP 53/47 for period 7/8 & 14/15 July and, I think never lower than their own Phone Polls which they admit understates the vote. Their own phone poll 57.5 against this Face-to-Face 55 doesn’t ring true – usually it would be the other way around.
The Morgan Phone Poll (11/12 July) was TPP 57.5/42.5 which is in line with the latest ACNielsen TPP 58/42 (12/14 July) in line with the last Newspoll 57/43 (10 July)
We have three Phone Polls between 10 July and 14 July – 57 & 57.5 & 58 AND this Morgan Face to Face covering basically the same period 55/45.
55/45 is still great numbers for Labor but, not to be a spoiler I think this certainly looks like an Outlier just as the Morgan had 20-28 January.
It is hard to believe the ‘terrorist’ thing caused such a dramatic shift as it seemed to be low keyed.
I will wait to see what the poll experts here say.
My own opinion is the voting intention hasnt shifted and may well worsen for the government at the next poll given the latest revelation with Haneef & Costello.
The next Newspoll I predict will be 57-58 / 42.
Are you all writing Rudd off because of one Morgan poll? LMAO
I’d trust Newspoll and AC Nielsen, even Galaxy instead of Roy Morgan.
If Newspoll shows a shift back to Howard, then I’ll believe it’s happening.
Here are two questions for you. When was the last time you saw a Morgan poll being headlined in another paper? Which paper do you think is crawling all over it now?
Well it will be good if the public think the gap is closing otherwise they would get worried in the gap being too wide and shift their votes back to the Govt.
Well, well, well, the Govt Gazette certainly looks like it’s quick on the uptake!! Will they ditch Newspoll and AC Nielson now?
The Australian discovers Morgan. This part is pretty misleading.
“The poll is the first mainstream opinion poll published since the appearance of Dr Mohamed Haneef in jail and his subsequent placing in immigration detention after a Brisbane Court awarded bail, pollster Gary Morgan noted.”
Of course the poll was taken well before these events. I suppose the emphasis is on “published” and “Gary Morgan noted”.
Actually the article is not as one sided or as misleading as the heading.
The Govt Gazette is desperate though.
Golly gosh there is nothing in this poll.
All these polls while great for talking about must be put into perspective, I’m sure somewhere in Australia there is a booth which will vote 60 – 40 Liberal while there will be a booth which will vote 60 – 40 for the ALP.
The Liberal Party is on the skids sure we expect the lead to narrow between now and Election night although I’ve seen nothing to suggest the Liberals will win.
The Morgan was taken over the last two weekends; on those two weekends Newspoll had Labor at 48 up 2 and AC Nielson had Labor at 49 up 1. The Labor down 3 in this poll disagrees with both of these mainstream phone polls.
From Gary Morgan comments.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4189/
“The first Australia-wide ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll after Brisbane doctor Mohammed Haneef was taken into custody finds the L-NP primary vote up 4.5% to 40.5%. ALP support is down 3% to 47.5%. The two-party preferred gap closed 8% to 10%: ALP 55%, L-NP 45% — the closest the two parties have been in the face-to-face Morgan Poll since late January.
Haneef was taken into custody on July 2 in connection with two failed terror plots in the UK. Haneef was eventually charged on July 14 with providing support to a terrorist group.”
It reads nothing like the article at “The Australian”. The immigration minister ordered the detention of Haneef on Monday (after the poll) but he is in fact being kept at Wolston Correctional Centre in Brisbane due to not having posted bail.
The Oz article contains two errors of fact.
It says “The poll is the first mainstream opinion poll published since the appearance of Dr Mohamed Haneef in jail and his subsequent placing in immigration detention after a Brisbane Court awarded bail, pollster Gary Morgan noted.â€
1) Gary Morgan did not say it was the first mainstream opinion poll published since the appearance of Dr Haneef in jail. He said it was “The first Australia-wide ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll after Brisbane doctor Mohammed Haneef was taken into custody “. In fact of course the two weekends on which polling was conducted coincided with the last Newspoll and ACNielsen polls.
2) There is no mention of the visa cancellation and immigration detention by Gary Morgan.
a bit of accuracy in reporting would be nice.
After all, Gary Bruce, the GG article was authored by the Poll Bludger forum’s very own Sid Marris (OK so he only posted once to tell William not to use Chris Mitchell’s name but I am sure the experience as part of the self-appointed online political commentariat was character building)
Exactly right Martin. Whether sloppy or deliberate it is misleading.
I wonder if Piers will be hypocritical enough to use Morgan as proof Howard is on the way back. he bags morgan unmercilessly.
I think the Australian is looking to support their man J.Howard over P.Costello.Any apparent rise is good news for the PM.!
Will this quell the leadership questions in the Coalition?
Is this just like the Galaxy poll.?
I am not doubting the integrity of Morgans polling.But for the Australian to be quoting it when they have rarely mentioned previuos polls Morgan Polls is quite significant.They seemed determined to do what they can to help the PM.
Has any one else noticed this about their new “exlusive”polling.So far this week we have had one on terror and one on the economy,and are issues that are supposed to be strong for the Coalition.
And if you partake in the polls you have enter your postcode to vote.I emailed them on Tuesday of this week and asked if they will be making available the breakdown of the postcodes and how many votes in each of the categories.
No answer.Interesting.
Has anyone read the article by David Briggs in the Herald Sun? I wonder who he supports?
Visa cancellation only happened last Sunday, so it would only cover 1 day in 4 of the polling period.
The visa was cancelled on Monday 16th July.
All this Morgan Poll has done is bring it into line with the other polls. The correction has been made.
Money must be pouring into Sportsbet for Labor. Now 1.67 – 2.20
This Morgan poll is depressing, labor would only win 94 seats on this result, still at least they would get Kalgoorlie.
I’ve had a look at Morgan’s website.
While the Liberals may appear to have improved a few little things jumped out.
- Morgan is back to where it was in Jan 2007.
- Compared to 12 months ago when the Liberals had there nose in front, today they sit 10 points behind on TPP.
- The Green vote looks a little low on 5%
- Family First voters appear to be moving their Preferences more towards the ALP than 12 months ago
- ALP Primary vote is 10 points up on last Election, matching the sorts of results the ALP have scored at State level
- While the poll looks okay for the Liberals but last time they appeared to be making headway with Morgen Polls, they quickly turned and reached new highs for the ALP
So Morgan has the Coalition at 40.5% and Labor at 47.5%, eh? Interesting. Now, all intelligent observers know that Morgan’s face-to-face methodology is flawed to the point of being utterly useless, but a true picture of the parties’ standings can nevertheless still be gleaned. According to this latest poll, then, the true picture is Coalition 45.5%, Labor 42.5%. And when you consider Mr Howard’s phenomenal popularity and the strength of the economy….
All I can say is that all those punters putting their hard-earned on Labor will once again be demonstrating the truth of that old saying. You know, something about fools and their money….
Yes, Steven, you just beat me to it, I was going to say the similar thing. The real picture is Coalition 45.5 Labor 42.5, and, the two party preferred figures are 52/48 in the Coalition’s favour, more than enough to retain a comfortable election-winning majority, with a swing against them of less than one percent.
Given that the Morgan poll immediately before the 2004 election was called had Labor nominally ahead 56 to 44 on 2pp, and the election result was an increased Howard majority, there’s nothing to suggest that a similar outcome isn’t going to occur this year, with the economy buoyant as ever and there being no discernible mood out there for change.
Yes, clearly these figures suggest we are heading for a landslide Liberal victory. Voters who were polled for the past 6 months were obviously doing a bit of ’sleepwalking’, and were momentarily too stupid to realise how wonderful nature of our incumbent government.
Hilarious ‘analysis’, guys.
Nah, Steven and Nos you have it all wrong. The poll actually has Labor 52% and coalition 37%. See I can make it up as I go along too. Just as long as it makes you feel better, that’s the main thing. Dream on.
Meanwhile, the dollar passed US88c earlier today, an amazing testament to the strength of our economy. At this rate we’ll hit parity in a month’s time.
Dear old Gary, just don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Yep, voters only make their election decisions after a close perusal of the Dow Jones figures, and with reference to the current standing of the Australian dollar.
Dear old Steven time to start thinking about getting to the party meeting isn’t it?
Hurray! A moderately ‘good’ poll for the Government and Nostradamus is back! Normality is resumed.
Are Stephen K and Nostradamus the same person? Surely there can’t be two people that stupid.
Steven kaye,
The Ozdollar at 88 US cents is no use to me. When is it going to rise to, say 50p?
I think Steven Kaye is stealing from the urinal…
You can fool some of the people all of the time…
When will you gulls realise that the punters being polled won’t actually have their votes counted in the election?? It’s much like the lotteries in Thailand where you have to have the “special” tickets if you want to actually be in the draw. The Coalition voters will largely be given the “special” ballot papers with a few handed out to Labor voters as well. This is why you should believe Nostradamus when he says. “The real picture is Coalition 45.5 Labor 42.5, and, the two party preferred figures are 52/48 in the Coalition’s favour”
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