Reuters has just issued its semi-regular Poll Trend, a weighted composite of results from Morgan, Newspoll and ACNielsen (but not Galaxy, which has been kinder to the Coalition in recent months). Their current figure has Labor ahead 57.3-42.7; the long-term trend looks a little something like this:
Despite Monday’s ACNielsen, that much-touted trend towards the Prime Minister as preferred leader is evident in other polls:
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Aristotle and Hugo: another South Sydney tragic here. But the Rabbitohs lost in 1969 because Balmain lay all over them, and a dodgy ref let it happen. On present indications, the AEC would have to abandon 100 years of independence for the Coalition to do a similar trick.
Ed St Jn: no one in Labor was ‘measuring curtains’ in 1969. I read the campaign coverage of 1969 recently for a Canberra Times puff-piece, pointing out the similarities between today (old govt/strong economy likely to suffer big swing to new, intellectual, right wing Labor leader etc). If Labor sounds cocky today – and nothing I see shows hubris of the sort that the public would detect – they certainly weren’t in ‘69. In ‘69 the ALP won because of a collapse in support of a stale government over a failing war, and Whitlam presenting fresh policies of urban and social renewal.
Stephen Kaye: The dollar is high because the greenback is sh*te and our interest rates are high by world standards!
It has been fascinating watching the Libs eat their own over the winter thus far. I can’t believe that talk about leadership change is starting to get traction. To change leaders at this point would look like panic (because that’s what it would be) and this would further feed into the dynamic that seems to have developed during 2007 that the government is on the way out. Dumping Howard now would just confirm that idea in the electorate’s minds.
Mind you, it’s hard not to think they’d be rooted either way. Personally I think that a late leadership switch will only add to the Labor landslide. The only chance the government has is to “stay strong” and hope something turns up. It’s still long enough till the election for something to come along out of left field (or should that be “right field”?).
But it’s hard to see what.
What a joke – The Australian (aka Government Gazette) leaps on this latest Morgan poll, when, as Gary says, they have never reported on it before. The Morgan Poll is usually ignored by the media. If ever you wanted confirmation of their pro-Howard agenda, this is it.
Before Nostra and Steven get too excited (by the way, Steven, didn’t you say that you were never going to comment on polls because you thought they were all a load of crap?), let’s just wait and see what next week’s Newspoll brings. The fact is you can’t judge whether a single poll result is an outlier or not until you can establish a clear trend, which of course requires more than one poll.
Nostradamus Says:
July 20th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
Yes, Steven, you just beat me to it, I was going to say the similar thing. The real picture is Coalition 45.5 Labor 42.5, and, the two party preferred figures are 52/48 in the Coalition’s favour, more than enough to retain a comfortable election-winning majority, with a swing against them of less than one percent.
I have booked you into the Mental Health ward Nostradamus. The “real picture” is you have your head up your backside and it should stay there so you cant talk such rubbish. Cheers.
Dont worry Nostradamus, Ive booked the bed next to you for that other delusionional nutcase trying to tell us about the “real picture”, master Kaye.
yeah i tossed in a couple of extra letters in delusional but you 2 wouldnt notice it anyway; its not in the Liberal Party Handbook.
Na, people with genuine mental health issues dont deserve to have u 2 imposed on them….stay home.
Had a couple after work, have we Strop?:)
listen leftoid lefty delusionals here is the drum
johnny is the greatest stings like a butterfly and he floats like a bee
the public in a delirium of joy will suitably reward the Gvt with posies of fresh flowers and scented oils for their delight
Libs 77% deluded ninnys 23%
Fulvio Sammut said: “I think Steven Kaye is stealing from the urinal…”
Speaking of urinals, how’s your Mum, Fulvio?
I just saw one of Nostradumus’s postings on another blog (an Oz opinion piece I think). It was a long, Liberal PR piece, unrelated to the opinion piece. Mate, for an old seer, you are a strange beast! You aren’t going to change one vote by posting to blogs, so stick to analysis, however partisan.
Morgan’s 4% change: that is statistically significant. Short of it being a ‘rogue’ poll, or Mr GM having adjusted his methods to produce a more Liberal friendly primary vote, how is it explicable?
Is the old Bugger attracting a sympathy vote? It would not surprise me. Between the camps of Howad Huggers and Haters lies a large plurality, in which he is far from unpopular, just coming to be seen as past his ‘best before’ date.
I anticipate a healthy correction in the polls to the government; but not at this point.
And just what will cause that correction Graeme?
THIS lasts face to face as has been noted was right in the middle of all these other polls and gives a totally differnt answer. These phone polls are usually roughly 2% less than the phone polls. [See Oz Politics analysis of Morgan -v- Phone polls]
Thus adding 2% to see what the corresponding Morgan ‘Face To Face’ would be is thus:
12/14 July ACNeilsen 58/42 = 60/40
11/12 July Morgan 57.5/42.5 = 59.5/40.5
10 July Newspoll 56/44 = 58/42
The Last ‘Face to Face’ was 7-15 July 55/44 this is reduction of between 3% and 5% in the midst of polls taken at the same time. Only one day (15 July) falls outside the other polls. Any event affecting this poll should have affected at least one of the others.
Anyway the point is this latest Morgan does appear to be the Outlier even with margin for error. But I will let the maths people deal with that.
The polls probably haven’t changed and if anything you would think an increase for Labor less gravity.
Taking in the huge embarassment of the Haneef ‘fix’ and Costello’s attack on Howard I would predict the next Newspoll at 58/42 but maybe ‘reported’ as 57/43.
The best thing is if the Govt takes the Morgan too seriously and feel like they are achieving something with their Haneef nonsense and thus decide to push it even harder – thereby pissing eveyone off even more.
that shoud be Face to Face -v- Phone Poll
Where would we be without our favourite Liberal Party wacko Nostradamus? Methinks he might be in for a rude shock on election day!
LOL
Gary, my apologies. I should have said ‘overestimate’ rather than ‘correction’.
The government is in deep poo-poo, but it will not lose by 10 or more percent. Opinion polls give voters a chance to kick the beast. This government is ailing, but it is far from incontinent, unlike conservative oppositions around the country. It still has a residue to tap into, of a benign economy, incumbency benefits and a grudgingly respected leader, to ensure its vote doesn’t slip below about 46-47 TPP.
“Taking the piss” Stephen Kaye. Lighten up.
Or maybe you weren’t….
Graeme, I tend to agree with you but to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if the swing is bigger than we imagine.
Every election there are rogue polls which seem to suddenly change the whole picture. This new Morgan poll may be one of those or it may well be a snapshot of how people were feeling on those days. You simply cannot judge by one or two polls.
You need to look at long term trends taking into account all polls.
In the past 48 hours betting by “fools” is heavily on Labor and has pushed them to firm favourites.
This latest round of appalling publicity for Howard and Costello a few weeks before the election could be the final nail in the coffin.
It will most likely set the trend back a point or two in Labor’s favour.
Going by the Morgan poll alone, which of course is inadvisable, the Coalition would need to claw back one percentage point a month by the election. With this latest mess, they will probably need to claw back one and a half points per month. It’s unlikely they could do that.
The poll trend for all polls is sideways. There hasn’t been a trend back, notwithstanding the latest Morgan poll.
On election day, the result will almost certainly be closer than either the Morgan or any other current poll. I still expect a 53-52.5% ALP- 47-47.5% Coalition final result. The majority of punters also feel it will be more like that than the other way. They are prepared to put their money on it.
Yeah there might have been a bit of a spike for the government with their ruthless tactics against the Indian doctor bloke who gave his terrorist cousin his UK sim card last year. After all, none of us want to get blown up.
Perhaps someone can help me out. I’m sure that I read somewhere that the last few times when there have been major terrorism issues, the government’s resulting opinion poll spikes had been growing less and of shorter duration?
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I wouldn’t have thought that this has been one of the government’s greatest weeks.
If it emerges that Dr Haneef is actually guilty of something, the government might well get a bounce for nabbing him. At the moment that doesn’t seem likely.
Well if they do have something they have made a mess of making something out of it. The focus is now on the mess the AFP has made of the investigation and evidence so far and that on top of Costello’s attack on Howard.
I guess it is possible the govt is sitting on something hoping to wedge Rudd, but Rudd is not biting.
This is election time so I will view with suspicion everything the govt is up to.
I don’t doubt that the AFP arrested Haneef in good faith – he does have connections of some sort with the doctors involved in the UK bombings, and leaving with one-way ticket does seem, prima facie, suspicious. But Howard, Ruddock and Andrews have been so keen to be “seen to be tough” in the hope of “doing a Tampa” that they have committed what is now seen as a major injustice, and unless evidence of Haneef’s guilt is produced very quickly they will get no political benefit at all. Rudd has not risen to the bait, despite what must be considerable pressure to come out against the government.
Just saw Gerard Henderson and Robert Mann on Lateline re: Haneef.
I need not elaborate further as it can be assumed what was said by Gerard and Robert.
As far as the general public is concerned [if they have paid attention long enough to get all the facts] it is pretty obvious Haneef has got a pretty raw deal. He may be getting some sympathy from among the general populous and that is a negative to Andrews.
It would be very amusing indeed if the Govt took the latest Morgan as evidence of a swing because of Haneef etc… and went even harder on it. I am not sure that the public has a stomach for more of this type of stuff. And I doubt that this Morgan Face-To-Face is reflecting the current position given that it was in the middle of other polls that gave a different figure [after adjusting 2% as per Ozpolitics].
The govt could end up making a big prick out of itself on terrorism on the mistaken belief that it is wining rather than costing them support.
Kina,
It’s always fun to see two graduates of the DLP philosophy on opposite sides. I thought Gerard would not have been supportive of the government on this one, given how dodgy it is, but he was. We will have to wait to see the overall effect on the government’s fortunes of its treatment of Dr Haneef, but I would be surprised if there was a decimal point of the long-awaited and often promised just-around-the-corner honeymoon-ending bounce.
Liberals delay final decision on Cook candidate
A Liberal Party meeting to decide whether to dump its newly preselected candidate for the Federal seat of Cook has broken up, without making a decision on his future.
Michael Towke, 31, beat a strong field to be preselected for the seat vacated by Bruce Baird.
But concerns have been raised about his suitability after he was accused of paying thousands of dollars to recruit new members within the southern Sydney electorate.
A spokesman for the New South Wales Liberal Party says the matter has been adjourned.
He says the decision was made to allow party directors to investigate the allegations and allow Mr Towke to respond.
The Australian was having difficulties contacting Mr. Towke recently. Maybe the Liberals have had the same problems.
Was he present at the meeting? If so, one would have expected some immediate and vigorous, if not bellicose, response from him, unless of course the allegations against him have substance.
If he did not attend, I would have thought the case against him would ipso facto be considered established.
I don’t accept that over the days in which the complaints have been aired the Liberals with their Governmental resources would not have been able to come to a definitive assessment. After all, most of the issues are either matters of public record or internal Party record.
The Liberals machinate in strange ways…
Presumably the Urbanchich-Clarke faction have enough numbers on the executive to stonewall any move to dump Towke. This will put Howard in a very awkward position.
It appears to me that the Haneef imbroglio has all the hallmarks of a wedge attempt gone disasterously wrong.
True it is that the initial information from Britain required immediate and thorough investigation. However that investigation could have been properly and discretely carried out without the blaze of publicity
which has accompanied it.
I suspect that if the Federal Police, and no doubt ASIO, had been permitted to do their job without political pressure and interference Dr Haneef would have been detained for two to four days, then released without charge after the inquiry was completed.
But the Liberals, desperate for an issue, any issue, which smelt remotely like Tampa, seized on the vague connection referred by British Intelligence for follow up as a potential lead, and turned it into a fait accompli. Howard though he had caught his wedge rabbit and proceeded to casserole it for all it (he thought) was worth.
Having the interrogation in the public arena, and being harrassed for the response the Government wanted, the Federal Police supplied a nebulous assessment that pleased its masters, an assessment not at all based on the facts it uncovered, facts which revealed Dr. Haneef to be an innocent victim of circumstances, not the international terrorist so desperately needed by Howard.
From there it snowballed out of control, the Goverment continued to stir its casserole furiously (Ruddock, Andrews and co) and the Federal Police attempting to justify the case that its sow’s ear was in fact a silk purse.
And then for the first time in many years, the Media, and in particular The Australian, whether from the stirring of a long dormant sense of unease and injustice, or more likely as a result of the undeniable evidence of the Transcript of Interview and the exposure by the ABC of the lie about where the sim card was found, suddenly and inexorably revealed the truth; the cassarole contained no rabbit and tasted and smelt more of rat.
And from there the Indian Government, seething with indignation at the abominable treatment meted to one of its citizens, did what every civilized Government does but which Australia does not, it went to his aid of and pressured Australia with its not inconsiderable financial and political clout for Dr. Haneef’s release.
Australia has been left with the ignominity of its abuse of the rule of law, interference by the executive in the administration of justice, political manipulation of its Immigration controls, International contempt and ridicule and a thinking population who no longer trust their system of Government.
And for what? To protect the political interests of a petty political party and its overwhelming lust to hang onto the trappings of power for the glorification of an insignificant and entirely loathsome leadership.Thats what.
Jesus, I hope this guy is a bloodthirsty, open mouth, double fanged slavering terrorist. If not, can you imagine what it must be like to be him. My God. He must have been sh!ting big ones.
If he even knows of the latest revalations, he must be thinking.. OMG, can I really be the lucky one that “isn’t” going to get screwed”
I was thinking about this and then I considered my immediate thought/emotion response. How there’s always this thing I have in the back of my mind these days. “Mayby there’s a rabbit in the hat about him”..
Then I considered the ALP’s chances, polls to die for. Costello smacking Howard “closed fist” on the front page. For the first time in years at my PS job we’re being told to do all things in duplicate,
1. As usual
2. When the NEW Gov comes
I should be elated but,… I always wonder “Mayby there’s a ….”
I guess I’m not so “relaxed and comfortable anymore”
“And from there the Indian Government, seething with indignation at the abominable treatment meted to one of its citizens, did what every civilized Government does but which Australia does not, it went to his aid of and pressured Australia with its not inconsiderable financial and political clout for Dr. Haneef’s release.”
What?! A national government going in to bat for one of its citizens?! Outrageous.
Fulvio Sammut Says:
July 20th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
Had a couple after work, have we Strop?:)
Ah yes mate, more than a couple actually. Apologies for the crass character assasination of master kaye and notradanus. Strop will refrain from logging on when ‘charged’ in future….until Labor win an ELection.
I think we may be getting abit paranoid if we start seriously thinking the Haneef affair can/will be used as some sort of political ‘wedge’ for the Coalition.
I agree with Adam’s assessment. If he does get whacked with charges that stick it will win some brownie points for the Government being ‘awake at wheel’ on Terrorism at least.
Against that, reports in the Australian today indicating the ‘younger’ voter is swinging away from the Coalition and some of that may be due to the perception that the Howard Government is ‘asleep at the wheel’ on climate change issues.
How much of this ’shift’ in the younger vote is a consequence of the recent ‘Live Earth’ event and the raising of youth consciousness on the issue and the extent to which that ’shift’ will stick come election time is another question altogether.
I think it is a young voter swinger/winner for Labor if for no other reason than to register a protest vote against a Government that has been lame on the issue for some time and, until recently, openly dismissive of global warming discourse.
Logic would dictate that those protest votes would go to the Greens who are more easily identified as aligned with concerns about global warming and the environment than is Labor or the Coalition. If nothing else, I suspect that the Green vote will not suffer as much of downturn in their percentage of the primary vote as some have predicted.
I would be looking for other reasons other than global warming/environment issues to explore reasons why the younger voter appears to be shifting to Labor, at least a significant proportion of them. A single (global warming/environment) causal factor would be niaive.
Amber Dekstris Says:
July 17th, 2007 at 12:29 am
By chalice I meant Opposition Leader not PM. Howard is man enough to lead to defeat, a quality Costello lacks. The machine will decide the battle is lost, allow Howard to lose, allow Costello to lead while in Opposition and allow Turnbull to have a tilt. Handing over to Costello will give the Libs the “makeover†that won’t wash this close to an election.
Seems you were right Amber: Costello made a public declaration yesterday that he will not be challenging for the leadership and JWH is the best man to lead the Coalition to the Election (read:into oblivion). Will that put an end to the underlying dissent in Coalition ranks and the leaking of further speculation ? I doubt it.
It is quite right that John Howard leads the libs to defeat as it is he who is the root and cause of the problem by staying around too long.
Here’s a hypothetical situation
Howard sees the cause is lost, and decides to retire, only to put Costello in charge (why is he so adamant that Costllo is his successor?). Come election time, Costello gets thrashed by Rudd, and is stuffed for the rest of his career as he perceived as a loser (Beazley’s problem). Is this possible – Howard going and Costello getting taken out with him.
Also, all this succession talk if the libs lose is based on Costello winning Higgins (probable but not certain) and Turnbull winning Wentworth (only a 2.6% margin I think) A really bad result could a Lib in a very safe seat (e.g. Brendan Nelson) as Opposition leader in charge.
This is extreme, but it could happen – any thoughts
Pardon my grammar, I have only just woken up!
Another Nail in the Coffin, in today’s Errorgraph sorry Terrorgraph sorry Telegraph
JOHN Howard faces a new crisis within his own party with a messy battle over the seat of Cook escalating last night and, worse for the Prime Minister, prolonging the pain for another week.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22106600-5006009,00.html
Thanks for the link Eddie- My favourite section says
Already facing a leadership split, Mr Howard’s senior NSW colleagues have now declared the party in “crisis”. Oh really, now thats a surprise DUHH.
Cook is a bloody mess isnt it- I wonder what the betting people are going to say about Towke’s chances of surviving the scrutiny.
SirEggo –the smart money says Howard will stay till the end and Costello will be the babysitter (leader) after this election until Turnbull is ready to put his hand up when they think they can win again- probably let Costello lose one (2010) then boot him out- question is how patient in Malcolm Turnbull going to be for acheiving his ultimate goal ?
in*is
It is possible Turnbull could lose Wentworth but hed just shove some else into retirement (with alot of help from those who see him as the next great hope), win a by election and get up and running again. No fault, no foul.
Re Cook preselection
Anything that vaguely looks like a stuff up by the libs is going to be all over the news and portrayed badly, I cannot seriously believe a party who is been so electorally brilliant for so long be so stupid.
Re Turnbull
Ambition can stuff up patience sometimes, just look at Costello and his biography quotes.
Re Howard’s Biography
Why have I got a feeling we’re going to keep hearing more “good stuff” from the bio (i.e. Costello thinks he’s a goose, he knew that Workchoices could be bad….what next?) SMH is still going to try to sell papers, so their not going to use up all of their ammo, anyone heard any tips on what could come next?
Anyone agree/disagree with these analyses?
Costello might be leader for the probable double dissolution next year (if he does not loose his seat).
The staff in Malcolm Turnbull’s office don’t regard him as Minister for the Environment but as Prime Minister-in-waiting.
On reflection, I think Peter Costello will never be prime minister. The only way he could be would be if, as John Howard says, he falls under a bus.
I agree that Costello may become caretaker for a few months but I can’t see him lasting till the next following election, which may be sooner than we think.
It’s much less likely that Turnbull will initiate a challenge now before the election. Imagine if he did and was successful and then lost heavily. He would not last beyond the election.
On the other hand if his colleagues were to draft him into the position because the polls worsen, even if he were to lose he wouldn’t be blamed for the destabilisation. It still might not be a good career move.
I think the Libs will have to resign themselves to defeat and then sort it all out afterwards.
How can anyone be surprised that the youth are deserting Howard in droves? He’s an old man. He’s 68. Australia is a young country, with a young image and a powerful youth culture.
The young are on to their issues – inability to ever own a house, global warming destroying their future and an old man who doesn’t care, industrial relations legislation which removes all those rights their fathers and grandfathers fought for.
All you Liberal apparatchiks who blog here must be losing heart in spite of your bravado. What you need to do is to reform your party so that right wing loonies no longer have control. Rediscover what being Liberal really means. Recruit young genuinely liberal people to take over.
In a couple of elections you may have another chance.
“Recruit young genuinely liberal people to take over.”
read: recruit lefties which conform to my ideological bend.
Im trying hard to keep the top on my bubbly: sense says one should pay heed to those who say .wait a minute,
(1) the election hasnt even been called yet, and
(2) the 20% swingers (?) havent put up their hands properly yet and
(3) alot can happen in politics in one day (Costello in JWHs biography for instance) and
(4) Morgan polls are at least 2% generous to Labor and
(5) Howards Preferred PM rating is on the up and
(6) dont forget the ‘incumbency’ factor and
(7) a national swing may not net enough actual seats for Labor and
(8) Rudd may trip up over something stupendous and
(9) JWH may yet find another rabbit or one might (unpredictably: eg Bali, 911) jump into his lap and, and, and.
A ratioanal person could probably scrounge up ‘20 good reasons’ why the race isnt over yet. None of them convincing- Still, I leave my bubbly in the fridge and crack the top of a beer, waiting !!
Okay, rational for ratioanal. sorry pedants.
Tom Says:
July 21st, 2007 at 11:08 am
Costello might be leader for the probable double dissolution next year (if he does not loose his seat).
Yes. aka Turnbull might get a shot after that and not have to wait forever…good point Tom.
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