Reuters has just issued its semi-regular Poll Trend, a weighted composite of results from Morgan, Newspoll and ACNielsen (but not Galaxy, which has been kinder to the Coalition in recent months). Their current figure has Labor ahead 57.3-42.7; the long-term trend looks a little something like this:
Despite Monday’s ACNielsen, that much-touted trend towards the Prime Minister as preferred leader is evident in other polls:
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A-C So anyone in the centre, like Bruce Baird for instance, are “lefties”.
Ayone with moderate views is a loony. It’s people like you who have caused Liberals to be out of government in every state and territory and shortly federally as well. You have done a lot of damage to a once proud Liberal Party.
There are certain seats I would be surprised in coming into Labor hands and Higgins (Costello), Wentworth (Turnbull), Bennelong (Howard) and Sturt (Christopher Pine) would be among them- then again, it is possible.
Apologies to the Pyne family. Christopher in particular (Pine-sheesh: ok I will spell check afore posting henceforth).
The Liberal Party does need a clean out, you have to concede that at least A-C, particularly in QLD and NSW ?
Strop It is hard to believe that Wentworth would fall even with a strong swing against the government but sometimes those swings don’t discriminate. It’s even more difficult to imagine that Bennelong would go. Same story. It just depends on how strong that swing is. The voters of Bennelong would probably assess that John Howard won’t remain their member for very long anyway after the election whether he wins or loses.
I can’t imagine him sitting on the back bench for a couple of years.
Hi Richard
I know, all the damage “we” people have caused is truly incomprehensible. Excluding the fact that the Libs have been in power federally for over a decade, excluding the fact that “moderate” (eg soft) Liberals have had control over most of the state oppositions with disastrous results, excluding the fact that St. Kevin is basically presenting himself as a Howard clone [note the fact that Howard stood as the antithesis of Paul Keating in 1996], Australian conservativism is really on the decline!
Please spare us from the gloating, sanctimonious preaching. Getting lectures on political appeal from a left-faction ALP hack (I’m just taking a stab here) is real waste of time.
re STROP
And the ALP doesn’t? Take a look at the seat of Franklin!
Strop You are right of course. I’m more familiar with the NSW scene but there it has been a disaster for the Liberal Party. I worked with a number of the moderate Liberals in the Greiner years. There were some excellent members – Tim Moore, Ted Pickering, Virginia Chadwick, John Ryan, Patricia Forsyth (later) and many others. Even Nick Greiner was a moderate compared to the mob who have taken over and he was a good manager with many sensible reforms. Ordinary Liberal Party members, the ones who do the grassroots work, are mightily disillusioned. The Liberal Party will have to scratch around to find enough people to hand out how to votes. You need these people in any party not just the extreme ideologues who have taken over the Liberal Party.
Just read the following article in the SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/libs-knew-laws-would-hurt-workers/2007/07/20/1184560040254.html
In particular, I quote the first two paragraphs:
“THE Federal Government introduced its Work Choices legislation into Parliament knowing it would leave some workers worse off, the new biography of John Howard reveals.
However, the Prime Minister ruled out further changes because he was keen to have the legislation passed. Time was short and Mr Howard wanted the laws bedded down politically well before this year’s election.”
Gee whiz. No wonder Howard’s on the skids. Fancy knowing the pain and hardship his laws would produce. Yet he couldn’t give a toss. He wasn’t prepared to get the legislation right and take the time to care for the very people who voted him into office.
That is why the battlers are deserting the government in the opinion polls. The surprise Senate majority in 2004 has motivated the emperor to disrobe in front of his subjects.
And the people don’t like what they see!
A-C You are so very wrong! I have never voted Labor in forty years and have never belonged to a union. You are so utterly blinkered you can’t see the truth. You’ll take the Party down with you.
Labor will not win Higgins – have a walk through Malvern and Toorak some day and see why. There is a Labor pocket in Prahran and a few marginal suburbs at the eastern end, but overall it is one of the SOLIDEST wealthy areas in Australia. Furthermore Costello is generally highly respected by upper middle class Melbourne people. That’s why some Labor MPs and candidates refused to use the anti-Costello bunting produced by head office in 2004.
Ditto for Goldstein. Labor will never win that.
Walk around Brighton, Hampton, Black Rock and Beaumaris.
STROP Says:
July 21st, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Im trying hard to keep the top on my bubbly: sense says one should pay heed to those who say .wait a minute,
(1) the election hasnt even been called yet, and
(2) the 20% swingers (?) havent put up their hands properly yet and
(3) alot can happen in politics in one day (Costello in JWHs biography for instance) and
(4) Morgan polls are at least 2% generous to Labor and
(5) Howards Preferred PM rating is on the up and
(6) dont forget the ‘incumbency’ factor and
(7) a national swing may not net enough actual seats for Labor and
(8) Rudd may trip up over something stupendous and
(9) JWH may yet find another rabbit or one might (unpredictably: eg Bali, 9/11 jump into his lap and, and, and.
and 10) oops – just used up my nie lives…
Tom.
nie=nine
oops!
funny Tom.
PS Adam: Ive taken a stroll around ‘Track’ etc, full on Liberal Territory and as you say Higgins is improbable. Lived in Malvern for awhile- renting of course.
“In Britain, a source close to the investigation confirmed the SIM card was found in Liverpool, and said the Australian police were considered a laughing stock by Britain’s Metropolitan Police for allowing “such a major cock-up” to happen. “Australian police have got their wires crossed. This is very embarrassing for them. The police here are laughing at the Australian police, saying, ‘What on earth have they done?’ [Haneef] is clearly more of a political case than a police case.”
As a lawyer I find this highly unnerving.
As a pollbludger, I realise that the govt cannot lose any support no matter how harshly it treats Dr Haneef. The media did its job in the first week and Haneef is forever labelled a ‘terror suspect’, whatever the courts say.
By the same token, whatever Howard/Brough achieve (or otherwise) in indigenous communities will not affect the government’s support.
My concern with the Haneef case now unravelling before the Govt’s eyes is that they did not bulk at manufacturing documents to character assassinate Justice Kirby under parliamentary privilege – and then later so ‘oh so sorry’.
I am just wondering that some parts of this government are so morally bankrupt that the no longer recognise what is moral and imoral.
The way the government has dealt with the Haneef case is truly disgusting. But, given the way they dealt with Hicks and have generally tried to ramp up the perceived threat of terrorism to scare the living daylights out of the population, well, it is very unsurprising.
The onus is now on Ruddock and Andrews to reveal their “secret” information about Haneef, that apparently was so damning that it justified a plan to lock him up indefinitely in detention, veto a decision made my magistrate regarding the case, and strip him of his visa, not to mention having his named and reputation dragged through the mud. So, Ruddock, given that the charge regarding the SIM card has fallen to pieces because it wasn’t true, what is your secret information?
It is now up to the government to justify their treatment of Haneef.
I’m not holding my breath. The government will try to move very quietly from this point on, hoping that the issue can be quickly dropped off the political radar.
I don’t know whether the Haneef case unravelling will lose the government votes, but it certainly would reinforce the cynical view the electorates takes of this government. That cynical view was illustrated by the 58% of respondents who thought Howard was not genuine in his response to the NT intervention. Everytime the government acts people are now looking for hidden motives and that can’t be good for a government that is trailing badly in all major opinion polls.
Unfortunately, on a political level, I think the Haneef case will not spring back on the government in any major way. Many voters might shake their heads at how the government mishandled the case, but some might also forgive them, feeling relieved that the government is prepared to take a very tough stand on anything that looks or smells like a link to terrorism.
A lot of people really don’t care about human rights, due process, and ethical behaviour if it means they are lulled into a false sense of security.
The only way that this will truly damage the government is if it turns out that Ruddock and Andrews lies about their “secret” information. But are there are journalists willing to really push them on this because unfortunately federal Labor dealt themselves out of this sorry saga when it first unfolded.
It is frustrating to say the least.
Drop, you are right. Howard has lost a lot of credibility and there are very few people left now who are willing to take him on his word on just about anything. We all KNOW that he often acts with ulterior motives, often to the detriment of this country.
But I don’t think the Haneef case will lead to a loss of votes. Some will be thankful for the tough stance on terrorism, even if the government has messed it up and even if they are transparently milking it for political gain. A lot of people just don’t bother with the details of issues like this.
Noocat, I don’t think it will cost them votes and really how much further can they drop in the polls anyway. My point was it just reinforces the view that everything they do has a political angle to it, whether it be talking nuclear power with the US or introducing legislation like “Workchoices”. It makes it hard for the government to sell new policy when the electorate is continually worried about any ulterior motives the government may have. I think the electorate are well and truly awake to the political games they play these days.
A-C, it is nonsense to suggest Howard stood as the ‘anti-Keating’. He mainly did so on atmospheric and symbolic issues. Outside that, he painted himself as a compassionate conservative, with few policies for significant change. He had no need to declare his hand and risk frightening some horses.
All he had to to was ride out the attacks on him being a policy free zone by not releasing details until late in the day. And why not – unlike Beazley (or Rudd) he was facing an old and unpopular government. Labor floundered to attack him as keen to sell Telstra, promote private health over Medicare, and sneak in a GST. Robb even courted the green vote especially TWS; Howard promised to keep the CGTax against his own wishes. All this is documented in ‘The Victory’.
But perhaps the Liberals on this site can speculate on who leaked the ‘Young turn against Howard’ polling data reported prominently today by News Ltd? http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22109137-2,00.html
There is a simple reason why injustice against a ‘terror suspect’ won’t hurt the government overall. And it’s the same reason the revelations about ‘children overboard’ etc didn’t bite.
The majority of people react positively to ANY authoritarian action disciplining immigrants, Muslims etc. To turn around and blame/critique the government would involve admitting that you yourself were wrong: the average Australian is inured now to feeling shame, and admitting you jumped to conclusions means saying sorry, however softly.
Only a major stuff-up like Iraq has any effect, and even then, it takes years for that to happen, and even then its salience is limited.
It’s pleasing to see that Rupert Murdoch has been so affected by the criticisms of The Australian at this site that he has ordered them to stop being so slavishly supportive of Howard. They have been highly critical of the government over the Haneef case, they have highlighted Abu Taouk’s record of lies, and today’s placard says YOUNG FLOCK TO RUDD.
Adam
The Sun King knows no displeasure only aslight dimming of his radiance
Oh and as i think was said before not everyone at the Oz is a closet fascisi
“It’s pleasing to see that Rupert Murdoch has been so affected by the criticisms of The Australian at this site that he has ordered them to stop being so slavishly supportive of Howard.”
Adam, yes, it is a welcome sign. Finally. Whether the subtle shift came from Rupert or not, who knows, but I have noticed that Shanahan has toned it down a bit and Albrechtsen is nowhere in sight (although the new website for The Australian is much harder to navigate and therefore easy to miss an article).
Nobody expects The Australian to suddenly give up their right-wing slant, but their commitment to Howard government cheerleading was taking them way out into the world of fantasy and irrationality.
Well, at least one good thing to come out of all of this is that “the War (on Terror) is within measurable distance of its end.” With Howard and Bush gone in 16 months, there’ll be no-one left to prosecute it.
While certainly there are genuine terrorists about who intend genuine harm, at least we the people will no longer be terrorised by our own govt (political beatups, excessive security checks etc), and the Federal Police and ASIO can be left alone to do their preventative work in low profile. Then we can stop holding our breaths and get on with living normal lives and maybe make the place a little bit happier to live in.
Nicely put, Amber.
In your dreams, Amber. The Demonrats are unelectable, and Howard will romp home a fifth term.
Thus spake Bizarro Nostradamus.
The Government will not be hurt by the Haneef affair – indeed, the Coalition’s ears on the ground report that the PM and his Government have benefited from their speedy and proper treatment of this creep. That’s why Fairfax and the ABC are trying like mad to discredit the case against him, because they know it’s helping Mr Howard.
Have you all noticed that your discussion of the L’Affaire Haneef is in terms of whether or not it will cost the government votes. Some years ago, the discussion would have been in terms of whether or not it would win the government votes.
The Australian is no longer “keeping the nation informedâ€, but “the heart of the nationâ€. Leftie soppiness has struck the citadel. I believe that The Australian would back Kevin Rudd in the election if only he would get Labor to drop its IR policy, which Labor cannot do and remain a Labor Party.
Isn’t it strange how Nos and Steve seem to work in tandem and both sprouting the same BS too. Same person?
Again the wise counsel of Noturanus bursts the bubble of “the real picture” advising (once again without anything to substantiate his predictions) that Howard will “romp home”. Thanks for the input; silly man.
Yeah, he has stopped using so many stupid metaphors. Maybe he read Orwell’s essay “Politics and the English Language”? See here:
http://www.george-orwell.org/Politics_and_the_English_Language/0.html
Funny guy! Haven’t you read that the prosecution have bungled the case, and it is now quite possible he will go free, EVEN IF HE WAS supporting terrorism. Maybe the coalition should get their ears off the ground, and start governming the country properly.
Might be the same person Gary: they certainly come from the same stratesphere- and it aint this one.
I am reminded of the comments of the French defeatists In 1940 after the fall of France, Petain I believe said Britain would have her neck wrung like a chicken.
As Winston Churchill reposted “some chicken some neck”
Bottom Line: don’t pop your cork too soon Strop
So the truth comes out with Workchoices. The government knew all along some workers would be worse off. Surprise, surprise. This will haunt Howard in the campaign.
Nostradamus: mate, what are you smoking? I see little evidence of a Howard landslide election victory. Will you be the last one to desert the sinking ship?
Steve, I agree that Haneef won’t cost votes, for reasons already put forward by others. However, the political expediency angle is highlighted yet again. Howard is building himself a persona that there is nothing he won’t do if it suits him. Now we have revelations that Howard knew the ill-effects of WorkChoices before it became law but he pressed again regardless in pursuit of a timetable (sound familiar?). Then when he announced the so-called fairness test he contradicted that position by saying he was unaware of any actual difficulties and was only fixing perceptions. He just says stuff. Whatever will do the job at the time. As confirmed by his wife, who can’t even appreciate the wrongheadedness of this mindset.
People are growing ever more cynical, the media are picking up on this and a groundswell against Howard is building.
oops, “pressed ahead”
A-C Says:
July 21st, 2007 at 12:35 pm
re STROP
And the ALP doesn’t? Take a look at the seat of Franklin! {Response to my suggestion that the Liberal Party needs a clean out, particularly in NSW and QLD}.
I presume you are referring to the pre-selection of the ex-ETU union man who is facing charges and the damage that might do to Rudd if/when the Coalition try to get some electoral mileage about “Unions = evil=economic disaster” again.
I wont bore myself with offering reasons why that card (the evil Unions) has not worked thusfar for the Coalition-sufficed to say that I hope that JWHs strategists have in their kit bag than negative messages about ‘those evil union people’ because (a) it wont win any significant bump in the polls and (b) TV is boring enough already- Please tell me they have something more than an anti-union theme to play with.
Incidently, how many seats in TASSIE (5) How many seats in NSW where the Liberal Party is ‘in crisis’ (10 times as many) and how many seats in QLD (29) where they have pinned their hopes on Bruce (that camera light is bright isnt it) Flegg and another nobody.
Objectively, congratulations to the Coalition for winning four straight Federal elections- no easy acheivement; the problem is they have overlooked what is happening at a State level and within these States (NSW/QLD/SA in particular) and forgotten the grass roots party member who set the platform for their National success. Now its time to pay the bill.
Havent popped my cork yet Edward- the bottle waits in the fridge.
Funny I could have sworn from your comments that you had
STROP says “Noturanus”
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Nice one.
I know it has been said before, but ol’ Nosty has to be a lefty plant to discredit conservatives, though I suspect Steven Kaye is the real deal.
The latest Morgan poll was before Costello confirmed Howard was a hopeless treasurer and before the revelations (duh!) that the government KNEW workers would be worse off under Worstchoices.
Expect a significant shift further towards Labour in the next poll.
Edward if you scroll back abit you will see I have listed 9 reasons why I havent popped my cork so to speak, yet. I could list 20 good reasons why the race isnt over yet- I just dont think any of them are convincing enough to shift the mood of the electorate significantly in the coming weeks/months.
Two points for tonight:
1. If Malcolm Turnbull should lose Wentworth, and assuming, he would want to continue a political career, either Berowra or Mackellar, would be a reasonably good fit, especially the latter. If Malcolm and Lucy don’t own a house in Palm Beach, one would be very surpised. And of course, Lucy’s old man Tom Hughes was the first member for Berowra, 1969 – 72. Good symmetry that.
2. On Peter Costello losing Higgins – in 2002 when the libs were annilhilated in Victoria at a state level – Robert Doyle still had a 15%+ majority in Malvern – a much greater majority than any other metropolitan seat. Enough said.
Earlier, I was suggesting that The Australian had perhaps started to do what good journalists do and investigate an issue, that is the Haneef case, rather than simply act as the government’s mouthpiece, which is the usual state of play for them.
But over at Road To Surfdom, Aussie Bob has an interesting theory:
“I’m thinking the Australian isn’t doing whatever they’re doing because they’ve suddenly got an attack of good-journalism-itis. I’m wondering whether they’re not trying to set a trap for all the lefties, defeatist lawyers and Kevin Rudd, in particular.”
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/07/21/the-thin-blue-line/#comment-321313
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