Comments on: Blind date

By: JoelC

JoelC — Sun, 12 Aug 2007 04:39:30 +0000

If Costello were to take over leadership in the next few weeks would that then be justification to hold off till a 19th January election.

They could argue that Costello needed some time to bed things down hence the delay.

By: Michael Proud

Michael Proud — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 10:22:30 +0000

BenC – if WA goes to daylight saving – won’t this mean it will now have an hour less than normal at summer, since the polls in the South East corner used to close 3 hours before WA.

Now they will only close 2 hours before WA.

That 3 hour gap was terrible in 1996 – I didn’t even have time to get drunk before Captain Smirky was calling the poll.

By: Stephen Lloyd

Stephen Lloyd — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 18:23:22 +0000

My prediction, along with my reasoning, at my blog.

By: ph

ph — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 14:04:39 +0000

My Media buyer mate suggests November… based on AD space booked on 7 / 9 & 10 networks from late october – early NOV…fwiw

By: HooHo

HooHo — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 13:38:03 +0000

PREDICTION

It will be called a week after APEC and held on either the 21st or 28th of October.

RESULT

Labor by 38 Seats (Don’t laugh at me, but after today, this looks like a genuine possibility.)

By: BenC

BenC — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 12:04:50 +0000

October 20 or 27 would be interesting as daylight saving starts in WA on October 28. If the election was held on either of those days, electors in WA would have an extra hour to see how the count is going in the east to maybe affect the result especially in the marginals.

Are there any anecdotes discussing if this has happened in the past?

By: Sceptic

Sceptic — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 09:23:19 +0000

APEC ends on September 7/8. The Canadian PM addresses the parliament on the 12th. The election won’t be called before then.

If the PM calls the election as soon as Stephen Harper leaves Australia then he might sneak in the date of October 20th with an issue of writ date for September 17th. I suspect he’ll take his time and call the election for October 27th, with the issue of the writ on September 24th.

If the PM doesn’t call the election on September 24th then parliament is scheduled to sit. He won’t want to do that. The media in particular will be niggling the PM to call the election, his 3 years will be up and there may be an impression of clinging on to power.

October 27th is probably the best date to surprise us all. Once November arrives then no date is a surprise. The PM may also be worried that the reserve bank will move to increase interest rates in November.

By: Michael Proud

Michael Proud — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 07:24:19 +0000

I think he will go as late as possible but not going past the three years since parliament sat, so November 10. I hope so, it is my poor late mum’s birthday and she would have soooo happy to have that day celebrated with him losing since her birthday in 2001 was ruined.

By: Matt D

Matt D — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 06:30:40 +0000

Remembrance day is small time in this country. Anzac Day is the big one. The Cup’s on Tuesday. Not a factor as far as I am concerned.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Wed, 08 Aug 2007 05:02:11 +0000

the 2001 election was held on November 10, and, unless my memory is failing me, neither the dates for the Melbourne Cup or Rememberance Day have changed since then.