Roy Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll comes in at the lower end of market expectations for Labor, whose two-party lead has narrowed to 54.5-45.5 from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49.5 per cent to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s up from 36.5 per cent to 41 per cent. This is from a sample of 1271 voters, which is unusually small for a Morgan face-to-face.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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230 Comments
May be get a first comment?
Seems weird because it is such a big change from previous Morgan F2F, and out of step with other recent polls: Newspoll and Galaxy. Does that mean this is more likely a rogue poll?
On the positive side, may be it will encourage Howard to call the election earlier, ie soon after APEC, and we can get it over and done with: the faux campaign has gone long enough!
wonder if this willl get any press (although Morgan rarely does) as it is a 4 point improvement for the govt (as opposed to Galaxy’s 3 point ALP improvement). Despite the volatility the vote looks rock solid at around 55/44
sorry i meant 55/45
Last Morgan F2F probably overstated labors lead, this one understates it. The average of the two is 48/39, which is in line with recent Gallaxy and Neswpolls. No Change
Results look similar to Morgan results for July ‘07.
What this poll might suggest is that the previous Morgan overstated the ALP vote, whereas this one understates it. Net result: More of the same.
However, if we are to read more into this than statistical noise, it does lend some credence to the theory that economic troubles might conversely help the government. But it’s also worth pointing out that Labor is still a mile in front and has been for 8 months.
Morgan’s been volatile the last two months. Looking at the year’s graph for 2PP the last Morgan and the one in early July now seem to be outliers… the long trend line points to today’s result, or about 55/45 anyway. Still solid for Rudd, but I think the trend would encourage Howard to wait until late November now.
Damn, I was hoping he’d really go for it and we’d get Oct 20.
Hugo, Galaxy has moved 3 points the other way which kind of kills the economic troubles theory. That being said, neither side should get excited about either poll, its the trend that matters and next week’s Newspoll will be instructive
The previous Morgan obviously overstated Labor support and if you take out that poll then allow for moe, then this aligns with the previous three Morgan face to face polls as well as most the other published opinion polls.
I’m amazed that Newspoll can put the Green vote at 4.5-5%, Morgan at 6.5-7.5% and Galaxy and Nelson close to or at 10%. And they’re all so consistant with their minor party numbers, I don’t understand.
A very good friend of mine who works for Ian McFarlane said that unless a big event happens Howard wants November 3 to avoid a potential interest rate rise on November 6 mid-election campaign.
Is this the best Morgan result for the Coalition since March?
Phile # 10
I have heard similar, still hope the official campaign starts soon though.
Pretty much the same as Newspoll 17-19 August.
“This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of August 18/19 & 25/26, 2007″
91 seats to Labor
(sorry about the duplication).
AC
It is the best poll for the coalition since July 21/22 & 28/29, 2007 45.5 54.5
Next best was July 7/8 & 14/15, 2007 45 55
Very similar reslts nothing is happening.
This is the best Morgan F2F for the government since Rudd took over.
Yep, so the polls demonstrate that Labor has around an 8-10 lead going about 2-2.5 months from an election. This means the Government has to claw back around 4 points in that time to pull through. Can it happen? Since they’re the incumbents, anything is possible. If they were in opposition, they’d may as well give up the fight.
Strangely enough, a poll like this is sobering for those Laborites celebrating prematurely and getting carried away with predictions of landslide victories(regardless of whether or not it’s accurate). This will be a bloody hard election for the Ruddster to win, and one can never underestimate Howard. Newspoll next Tuesday will confirm if this reflects a definite move back to the Coalition.
Dunno: Early November risks pissing off punters whose Melbourne Cup etc have been ruined by Team Rodent’s slashing of customs and quarantine resources.
I note Kroger favors October or December.
This poll makes me less nervous than the absolute apathy and confusion on show at the Voter’s Verdict forum!
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/projects/voters/voter.html
Note the sample size of only 1271 over two weekends, when the normal sample size is around 1700. Also, note that the Labor “think will win” is down 5% since the last poll, and 3% since late July, when Labor had the same 2PP. The last Newspoll had Labor “think will win” at 57%. The sample size may indicate that they had some sample problems; maybe they didn’t sample enough Labor areas. After being stable since March, this poll has been all over the place since the end of June.
Yep, it ain’t over till its over. Rather be Rudd though!
And Id say this: Ive been watching various polls all year, and ALP Primary drifts between 46 and 49; Coalition’s between 39 and 41. As with this poll.
If those low 46 and high 41 are rusted on, and they may be, its going to be pretty damn hard for Howard to hold on.
He’s going to have to do better than that.
Melbourne cup might not be on…
Anyway, sorry to repeat from another thread but: (copy/paste)
A question. I am going overseas for a few months to a remote area where I won’t be able to cast an overseas vote, but I expect the election to be called before I leave.
For pre-poll votes, how would that work. Will an AEC office just spring up in my electorate or do I get a postal vote from the post office or somewhere?
Thanks in advance.
HH you are right a sobering poll in many respects.
HH, this poll was taken over the same two weekends when Newspoll had Labor up 55-45 and Galaxy had Labor up 57-43. It’s also the same period when Morgan ph had Labor up 60-40. I do agree that Newspoll will be interesting now, but I expect a swing to Labor, due to interest rates and Labor’s IR policy.
I hope it is November 3 as I’ll be going overseas 2 days afterwards and want to be here on election day.
Phil – I’m pretty sure you can download postal voting forms off the net now. Check out the aec website.
The last 4 Morgans read
55
55
58.5
54.5
Looks like stability around 55 with a random lurch last fortnight. But that’s really odd, because that’s what ACN, Galaxy and Newspoll are showing as well… and normally Morgan is at least a point or two to the left.
Colour me puzzled. Has Gary changed his ’secret recipe’ of weightings in such a way as to eliminate his historical ‘bias’ and just failed to mention it to anyone?
Also, I don’t know for sure, but I won’t be surprised if once Bryan Palmer whacks this one onto his Morgan ‘chicken entrails’ graph since May, it actually looks better for the Coalition than the other 3. Which would add to the general bizarreness of recent Morgans.
There have been a number of 3-4 point movements in the polls (bar Newspoll) over the last month. Just noise, or is there some sudden skittishness in voterland generating these gyrations? Probably the former.
I was involved in a Morgan face to face poll a few years ago(2003 or 2004) – I had to fill out a ballot paper and put it in their ballot box, as well as answering a whole lot of questions. I live in a safe Liberal electorate.
Phil: I presume you can apply for a postal vote already?
I’d try the aec website.
Like I’ve been saying – anyone putting cash on the election being more than 1-2% either way is a mug.
I agree with Drop By. The most likely scenario is that the previous Morgan FTF was a slight outlier. The current results continue a general 55-45 trend over the past couple of months.
Also, don’t forget that last week’s phone poll was conducted AFTER the start of this latest FTF poll. In other words, this poll might be influenced by something that was happening before the phone poll.
I’m quite pleased with this result, because if people think the government are still in the game, then they are less likely to do a protest vote against Labor having a big win. Then again, most people will never know about this poll because the media pretty much ignore Morgan!
Next week’s Newspoll will be very interesting to see if it goes the way of Morgan or Galaxy…
Hopefully this will curtail some of the more exuberant predictions on this board!
Tell that to Mumble, BV.
Can’t believe it, but i think i agree with Michael Kroger’s assesment last night on Lateline – 1 December for polling day.
I have a problem with Morgan’s conclusion:
“The recent financial scare on the Australian share market has pushed some swinging voters back to the Coalition. The scare, which was sparked by concerns with the US sub-prime mortgage market, was looked upon by many as a long overdue correction; however, it concerned the large number of ‘mum and dad’ investors, who in a few days saw a significant drop in the value of shares and the Australian dollar.
The financial scare happened in and around August 15 but the subprime scare has been feeding through the system for about 1 month. So I find it hard to see this conclusion as explaining the drop.
The phone poll last week was supposedly tracking voter reaction to the strip club visit. This F2F poll is supposedly tracking an event which also happened around the same time but with opposite conclusions? Go and figure.
The figures are whatever they are based on the polling methodology used and within their margin of error. Not sure there is necessary any single event that stands out which explains everything. The reality is normally a lot more complex than this.
dembo
This poll shows a 7.24% swing to labor since the last election. No matter how anyone spins it, it is another shocking poll for the Coalition.
I think 1 Dec would actually be a very good polling day (from Howard’s perspective). It gives him time to gain some momentum and claw back Rudd’s lead. It also occurs around a month after a possible interest rate rise which would surely alter the dynamics of the race. In that period of time it may be possible for him to spin a rate rise into something more favourable: ie. “a tightning economy requires the guidence of a more experienced team at the helm.”
Lefty E @19
Yes, I was wondering when the cuts to resources thing would crop up. Staff numbers? Perfect op for a whistleblower.
A-C,
indeed, i agree. Surely with the virtual standstill in the polls, the P.M is motivated to go longer in waiting to call the poll. Anything after 1 December would likely tick off holidaying punters – I suspect he’s waiting/hoping for at least a little shift (firmly reflected in at least a couple of polls) back toward the coalition before starting a relatively long campaign period which will focus heavily on attacking Rudd as leader. I’m not ready to drop the rabbit in the hat idea just yet. A 1 December poll would give the P.M the two October sitting weeks to try out a couple more tricks (writs would need to be issued by 29 October)…maybe even have Abbott launch an outrageous slur against Rudd under the protection of Parliamentary privelege – who knows what might get tossed out there? The Government is looking increasingly desperate and I can’t see any advantage for them in not waiting until late Nov / 1 Dec. Any negative economic news (as you’ve said A-C) could likely be spun in the Government’s favour as cause for caution on changing teams. I suspect there might be people in the Coalition advising Howard that he needs to get himself and his team looking more like a Goverment that is in control and on the move etc….the additional sitting weeks in October might just be an opportunity to try that out.
Just a thought.
yo friken yo
58 was silly 54.5..erm
lets say 55.5. ans say no more
next is newspoll, then morgan phone, then another newspoll, ac nielsen, galaxy…
finally a big poll of 13 million voters in 150 electorates.
The more the months change, the more the polls stay the same.
For the information of members and their guests.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=375
Let’s not forget that polls are only a guide. The polls will become more reflective of the actual outcome of the election THE closer to the election.
It cannot be denied that Rudd is in a very strong position to be our next PM. How could any swinging voter be serious about voting for the liberals where they do not even have a plan for their own leadership in the next term of office. All this talk about Howard where we don’t know if he will be there or not? Honestly it’s BLOODY RIDICULOUS.
So how does Rudd truly stand at the moment judged by the opinions of the people who are in the business of getting it right, and the many people who are prepared to put their money where there mouth is:
Corporate Bookmakers – ALP 1.55 / LIB 2.48.
Betfair – ALP 1.60 / LIB 2.50.
BigPictureGuy (35) – I agree with the fact the Morgan’s reasoning behind the shift is suspect. It could be any one of a number of factors.
We have to be careful of reading too much into this. Yes it is a blow for ALP supports, as much as the last Galaxy poll was exciting for Labor supporters. However, two factors are important about ALL of these polls:
1. Margin of Error
2. Overall trend
This poll could have been understated due to the MoE, as much as the last Galaxy could have been overstated. The reverse could even be true – that the Galaxy was understated and this one is overstated. Or this one is accurate and Galaxy was overstated. Or any combination thereof.
I also disagree with Morgan’s method of calculating the “soft” votes. he says a soft ALP vote means a voting intention for the ALP, couple with a Yes answer to the “Country is headed in the right direction” question.
I say that people who responded this way could most certainly be saying “I like where Australia is going, but I want the ALP to keep it going that way” or words to that effect.
A sobering poll to be sure, for ALP supporters, but far from definitive.
Scotty (43)
Yes the Morgan soft voters concept is a pretty useless.
I myself would say ‘yes’ to the country heading in the right direction if only because for the last 8 months the polls have all been pointing to a change of govt at the end of the year. You cannot get a better direction than that IMO.
A Liberal voter like Glen would also say ‘yes’ to the same question as he thinks Howard has done a good job and the direction is right.
So talk about a flawed and soft concept…
Ironic that it’s now Galaxy that seems to be overstating Labor’s vote, and Morgan underestimating it!
And Centrebet is still holding at $1.50 ALP, $2.60 Coalition
Anyone know the bookies’ favourite election date?
Centrebet also currently has Maxine at $2.50 in Bennelong. I think that was $2.15 a few weeks ago.
Are we seeing some pre-election tightening of the vote at the moment?
I still wouldn’t be the Coalition for all the tea in China, but it does appear as if a few subtle changes are afoot.
Lefty a week ago it was Nov 10, followed by Oct 20, followed by all other November dates.
Bryan P has a table if you scroll down.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
What about that idiot (Dubya) trying to tell Rudd what to do.
Who is really the Man Of Steel?
The one who licks your arse or the one who uses common sense, acts in the best interests of our nation and the planet, and has the courage to disagree with your stupidity?
Should be a positive for (a truly strong leader) Rudd in the next set of polls.
Morgan’s polls aren’t worth much, and his commentary on his polls are worth even less. Let’s see what happens with Newspoll.
Adam,
Will you be adding Paterson to your maps soon? This could be interesting to watch on election night.
OK I will do Paterson next
The TREND doesn’t gel with its own Phone polls, the other polls (Galaxy, Newspoll) and is inconsistent with its own F2F except with 4 polls ago when there was a sudden dip, yet to be explained.
AND I recall that the F2F was all year 2 points above the phone polls until these changes. A think we have a change in Morgan’s methods. If it is a new method then these results are meaningless until the method proves itself. Anyone been polled lately by Morgan F2F? Seems they tried their new method a couple of times, then their old one and now their new method again. OR is it something else.
We also have the matter of people thinking the Coalition doesn’t have such an advantage on economic matters (the only positive they really have on labor). This has to indicate the public looking more favourably on Labor or discounting the Govts credentials – either way it should firm up the Labor vote not cause a sudden large dip.
Time to abandon the Morgan F2F and follow the phone polls instead.
Can’t say that I believe anything has changed.
Probably a TPP 55-57/43
Hi Kina (54), your selectivity and wishful thinking make you far worse (and less funny) than another poster on this website who’ll remain nameless.
A-C: To be consistent a Morgan F2F of 54.5 would be similar to a Newspoll of 53/47 – but Newspoll has been firm on 55-56 for most of the year. Thus the sudden number of low Morgans indicate new method or MEO operating each time. Not selective, looking for consistency and logic.
MOE
“I’m amazed that Newspoll can put the Green vote at 4.5-5%, Morgan at 6.5-7.5% and Galaxy and Nelson close to or at 10%.”
Newspoll has had a systematic bias that underestimates the Green vote by about 2%. Paul Norton went over it at LP a few months ago: http://larvatusprodeo.net/2007/04/17/newspoll-and-the-greens/
If you look at the charts at Ozpolitics (http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/#green), you can see the Morgan and Newspoll moving averages are pretty in sync, just 2% apart. Nielsen has historically overestimated the Green vote, but since the Rudd ascension, it’s been pretty close to Morgan.
d
The difference between Rudd and Latham is that Rudd will be polite and couch his opposition to the Iraq war in diplomatic language – the man is an experienced foreign diplomat, used to handling people like Bush.
And, every time George W pokes his nose into Australian politics, it hurts his mate the rodent.
So, I don’t see this as a negative for the Ruddster.
These charts clearly demonstrate Morgan F2F has for some years polled at around 2 points different to Newspoll. Hence the current oddity with the past 4 F2F. If there has been no change in method then applying MOE to maintain consistency and correlation this Morgan should be around 56.5/43.5
Labor
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-labor-ma.png
Govt
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-coalition-ma.png
I don’t dispute the fact that the polls will move towards the govt at some stage and that the election may well be a close and hard battle considering Labor have the ground to make up.
You are all getting too fixated on the 2pp.
The consistent, unchanging result across all the polls is a Labor primary circa 47%, with outliers only being 1 or 2 points above or below. We can infer that the ALP has locked in at least 44% of the primary vote, which is pretty impressive.
Howard will go early. Anymore and the voters will get impatient. He should go straight after APEC just to get it over and done with, rather than waiting till November. That way, if he gets back in, time for the HOR to sit again before Christmas and if Rudd wins, give him time to organise a new cabinet and to let them settle in. (He won’t do what Whitlam did in ‘72, he’ll be more of a moderate reformer than a revolutionary.)
We’ll ill be i guess im going to be the first to eat my words about the polls…i was wrong to call any particular poll biased…and isnt it funny the poll the Rudd Huggers hate gives him an astronomical lead and the poll the Howard Lovers hate gives Howard a brief glimpse of salvation…while this is a wonderful poll for the Coalition (still a landslide victory for Labor mind you)…Morgan has once again undervalued the National Party vote at 2.5% when they have polled 6% in 2004 now granted alot of people polled might say Liberal when they only have a Nat to vote for but 2.5% seems rather low indeed…
But as noted already the next newspoll will be crucial if it is below 55-45 then there has been some movement in the polls…this could be a one off but Howard needs everything to go his way so a tightening of the polls is one thing he needs badly at the moment…
If the Liberal Party can score a primary vote in the 40s they’ve got a chance slim though it may be of winning…if its below the Coalition will struggle…the ALP can win seats with less primary vote than the Liberal or Nationals candidate because they receive 3/4 of Greens preferences so if the Coalition is going to have a chance in November/December they’ll need to claw back alot more support on primaries…
Still lets not go nuts about this poll it still shows Labor winning in a landslide of biblical proportions so i’d rather be in Labor’s position at the moment but nevertheless a 4% rise could be either a decisive shift in voter sentiment or a rogue poll take your pick…im hoping its the former…and im also interested in this poll because it was a face-to-face poll and most F2F polls arent really supportive of the Coalition…(nobody likes to admit they are a conservative lol)…
Scotty@48:
About a week ago, Scotty, Maxine was in to $2.10 on CBet. And now, as you point out Max is at $2.50
Max’s $2.10 “board odds” was squirm territory for El Rodente, especially if she remained there long enough for the punters to notice. Somebody has been backing Bennelong John with serious fat. Enough for Maxine to drift 36% in the betting on the southern hemisphere’s largest perimutuel election pool.
Nah, they wouldn’t would they? Just to make him look a little better?
Still, whoever poulticed The Rodent always has the option of “off-loading” on Maxine come election eve if circumstances warrant. This is pure speculation on my part, but one can’t entirely eliminate the possibily that “sources close to the PM” had a bit of a lash. For the good of The Party, naturally.
With Labor’s IR policy upgrade getting some form support from BHP, most papers and begrudging support from other areas; the report that showed poverty has increased to 10%; polls that show improvement in Labor’s economic credentials; the negative atmosphere surrounding horse flu developments and, Howard getting little oxygen on positive issues you would have to think votes could still be leaking away from the Govt.
There is so far only one reason I can see for the voter to move back to the govt, fear of change.
Unless Howard has some big rabbits to pull out of the hat I think waiting could cost him further votes.
Does anyone know if the WA Libs have finalised their Senate ticket yet? There’s nothing about it at their website, but that’s not very surprising.
While i have lambasted the media for Howard’s perilous position at the moment…there are other reasons…if Howard cannot stop people being bored with his leadership/government then he’ll lose…simple as that boredom will be the biggest killer of Howard and i think the main reason why he’s still so far behind…Rudd is fresh new bright people have warmed to him…Howard needs a revamp maybe ministerial before the election…something to instil some renewal in his team if he’s to attempt to stop the Australian public being bored with his Government and give him a shot at a 5th term…
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Bunnyeared-woman-strips-for-Rudd/2007/08/31/1188067342449.html
Bunny-eared woman strips for Rudd
Heheh how funny the Chasers will be worth watching just to see Rudd lol you wouldnt get someone doing that for Howard though so it could end up being another vote winner for Rudd lol
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/clear-me-says-lib-mp-over-police-raid/2007/08/30/1188067278078.html
Clear me, says Lib MP over police raid
Seems Gary Hardgrave want them to clear him before the election…i wonder why its taking the DPP so long its either a good thing or a very bad thing…
I wonder what the Exclusive Brethren’s position on gambling is.
Glen, the coalition is going to have to do better than 40%. Any primary lead the ALP has nationwide is only going to be more exacerbated in the 5 big metro areas around Australia. I would guess the primary split is even more horrendous than the 46-39 average in the polls.
If you factor in that WA is probably dampening the ALP vote in the national polls, and Vic is status quo, that’s a big worry for Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide seats for the libs.
Factor in Uncle Rupert’s conversion to Kevinism, which is especially reflected in the rags on the eastern seaboard. Big trouble.
I reckon some of these political commentators must live in a vaccum or believe that corrupt government doesn’t bother people.
They dont face the fact that maybe this government deserves to get booted out and that many of the people think so to. Some of these so called political commentators say the people are just getting bored with the govt and, refuse to acknowledge a littany of disgraceful government actions and actions for which they refuse to admit responsibility, or blame or accountability. Poeple don’t care about these? They don’t work against the govt?
Iraq ware Lies on WMD;
Foreign policy decided by BUsh and Cheney;
Hicks trashing of justice;
Refugees as political toys;
Heavey handed immigration deporting our own citizens;
Tamapa debacle orchestrated by the govt;
Children Overboard Lies by govt ministers;
AWB bribery sponsored by the govt and lies by govt ministers;
Racism and Xenophobia promotion;
Manildra;
Cash for visas
Climate Change – deliberate ignorance and delay 10 years;
Iraq – staying there to support Bush;
Haneef frame up;
Persecution of persons who disagree with govt ie Justice Kirby, Andrew Wilkie
Interest rate rises – because of Howard’s stupid pork barreling every 3 years
WorkChoices – handing the australian worker over to business bound hand and foot and gagged
Politicisation of the Public Service, Military, Security Services, Non-Govt funded agencies etc
And probably others I cant think of. The govt has shown itself to be simply corrupting democracy, honesty, decency and so forth.
Almost each one of these issues is enough to bring down a govt or lead to mass Minster dismissals (which never happened). People dont trust Howard for a reason. It is amazing that some of these political commentators refuse to refer to all these things when saying – the people are bored. The people might just be sick of a selfish PM and govt only interested in Big Industry and staying in power indefinately.
We only need to remeber the John Howard and this ministers of November 2006 before he came under Rudd pressure. They were totally arrogant, threatening, intimidating and dismissive of the Australian people, transparency etc. Given another 3 years?
It appears that dirty politics is once again on hand and while no party has clean hands the ALP have show with their latest indiscretion that they are not beyond dirt politics…
ALP defends ad attack on Ballarat Liberal candidate
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/31/2020711.htm
The Labor Party is defending a new television advertisement.
The election commercial shows the home of Samantha McIntosh, the Liberal candidate for Ballarat, in central Victoria, with a luxury car parked in the driveway.
The home is also the family business and is up for sale for more than $2 million.
The ad portrays Mrs McIntosh as wealthy and says she is out of touch with housing affordability issues.
The car in the ad does not belong to Mrs McIntosh, but the ALP’s campaign director for the electorate, Don Nardella, defends the use of it in the commercial.
“The Mercedes Benz was parked in the driveway when our camera crew were out there and it took a shot of the Mercedes Benz in the driveway,” he said.
“We’re not saying it’s her car at all. It was a shot of the house and the vehicle was parked in the driveway, we took a shot of it.”
Grubby
Tony Smith, the parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister and MP for Casey, says Catherine King’s attack on her federal election rival is grubby.
“What it signals is this. It is no secret in Canberra that the Labor Party are worried about the seat of Ballarat because Catherine King hasn’t done the work and because Sam McIntosh is a quality candidate with a great history in the Ballarat area, who is well known and is working extremely hard,” he said.
Now while no Party is immune from dirt politics is it clear the ALP are so worried about Ballarat which could fall to the Coalition at the election with a swing of less than 1 or 2 percent…that they have had to get dirt under their fingernails early in the ‘campaign’…
On a previous thread the possibility of Hughes falling was discussed. This afternoon at Portland the odds for the ALP have moved from $6.50 to $4.00. Someone is having some serious money on Hughes. It opened on Portland at $11.00 in July.
Kina (71),
Speaking of “Hicks trashing of justice” that is all the more reason to make sure the election is held before the end of the year. Howard has said he would do this (yesterday guaranteed a poll prior to years end). Hicks gag order is up sometime in December I don’t know the exact date. Does anyone else know? Also, why isn’t anyone making a bigger deal out of why it took so long in the first place? I don’t think it takes Blind Freddy to realize that if not for the fact that we are having an election this year that Hicks would still be over there and not in Adelaide …..
:( Julie
Glen, was the Mercedes NOT parked in Samantha McIntosh’s driveway?
If it was, then that is a factual photo? What’s wrong with presenting facts?
Is her house up for sale for more than $2 million or not?
If it is, then that is a correctly reported fact.
Glen, have you got problems with FACTS???
Its pretty sad, that politics in Australia has degenerated to such a stage, that dirt politics is so commonplace. We can only blame John Howard and his government for taking dirt politics to a new level. Although dirt politics will likely never go away, the sooner we vote out the main instigators (being those parties that use people like Textor), the better.
There is only one residence in Ballarat that is anywhere near $2 million (according to realestate.com)
Ballarat’s Grandest Residence
$2,285,000
This Grand Victorian residence is set on approx 1 acre and is arguably one of Ballarat’s finest Victorian homes.
The home is located in one of Ballarats finest tree lined streets meters from the lake, close to shops, cafe’s, restaurants, schools and hospitals. Positioned amongst magnificent established gardens this residence is approximately 70 squares of living and 20 squares of cellar space. Features include; a stunning formal lounge room, huge formal dining room, sunlit breakfast room, a study, a family room that was once a ballroom and includes a kitchen designed for the serious chef.
There is a large master bedroom with ensuite & numerous bedrooms & bathrooms throughout this impressive home. The property also includes 2 self contained units ideal for guests. The many original features of the home include ruby glass door surrounds, tiled fireplaces, ornate plaster ceilings & wrought iron balustrades that have been lovingly restored to enhance the elegance of this magnificent home. Opportunities to secure a residence such as this are rare.
Property Summary:
Category: House Bedrooms: 10 Bathrooms: 5
Hardly a place that a Merc would feel out of place.
Although I do like my SLK
Asanque lets just hope it doesnt degenerate into US politics of smear and scandal that’s all we can hope for…the problem is dirt politics is effective more often than not and politicians being politicians are willing to do what it takes to win despite morality…i dont think its fair to put the blame on Howard or Textor for that matter…no one party has a completely clean record on dirt politics…
Talking about Dirt Politics and politicised govt and non-govt funded organisations the Govt has been good at victimising those that present a dissenting voice, from threats against the local Red Cross, neutering CSIRO scientists, an attack on Justice Kirby in Parliament on falisfied documentation AND of course Ian Thorpe.
Ian Thorpe is part of the GetUp action web site [196,000 members now] which is really a big pain for the Govt. Not surprising then that there were allegations of drug cheating against him in order to ruin his reputation aka Kirby & Wilkie:
http://www.getup.org.au/
Thorpe cleared of doping violations:
ASADA launched an investigation in April after Thorpe returned a sample with elevated hormone levels in May last year. The former athlete has since been subjected to no-notice drug tests.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/31/2020637.htm
Glen
I find your stuff funny but please attempt some form of punctuation. The full point is a good place to start.
It looks like he ALP are finally coming out of their shell and going on the attack. The Libs have been doing the real dirty stuff for years and years on Labor and Green candidates. Labor has been too shy and too scared for too long to dish out the dirt. What is needed is a bit of assertiveness and a bit of mongrel to tell King Howard that he has no clothes on and his cohorts that they are on the nose.
I have a distaste for the Greens because, as Adam has said, they are a magnet for Marxists and Trotskyists like Lee Rhiannon and Kerry Nettle. It’s the NDP all over again.
At least the Democrats were a party of review from the centre rather than the far left like the Greens.
What centre or centre-right Democrats voter would want the balance of power over either a Liberal or Labor government held by the far left?
Glen: Thanks to Textor and the Howard government its all about smear and scandal and nothing about policies.
The Government’s entire line of argument against Rudd is all about scare tactics, from unions, to destruction of the economy, to all ALP governments, to an increase in GST. Throw in a scandal or two such as Scores, and you have Howard’s entire campaign strategy.
However, I haven’t seen Rudd use too many issues of scandal and smear. Please correct me if I am wrong.
This entire election campaign so far has been an amazing lack of planning for the future from both sides. For me, Rudd has been far more credible in at least outlining some initiatives for the future. Howard has done little but pork barrel.
Please…Howard no clothes on. Dirt campaigns turn into an arms race of how low you can go. I prefer to leave that to the rodents of the world.
Politics is a dirty game. It’s quite disgusting actually. This will be a very dirty campaign, that’s already obvious. There will be untold lies told by both majors. One wonders what the fallout will be at the end.
You’ll notice in other campaigns how the polls are all over the place during the campaign proper. I just hope the people can see through all the lies and dirt. I for one will not be giving my first vote to either major party.
This poll may be a rogue or it may be exactly right. Next Newspoll and Nielsen will give a better indication. In any case it’s very likely the gap will close more than this. It would be very unlikely that the final result would be
54.5% to 45.5%, most likely a couple of points closer.
If the other polls show this result, then John Howard will indeed tough it out to the end. Could well be only three or four seats in it.
Richard.
The minor parties are not clean skins, they are just as capable of dirt campaigns.
I have worked alongside Lee Rhiannon and she is the conscience of the House. She says things others fear to say. She certainly riles the so-called Hard Left of the Labor Party who are actually right wingers.
Imagine, Michael Costa was a Trotskyite once! You could hardly find someone further right or more anti-green now.
Lee Rhiannon actually does stand up for the down-trodden and really does care unlike so many of the Labor members who constantly put her down.
I wish there were many more of her calibre in both the state parliament and the federal parliament.
Kina @ 79
” … Thorpe is part of the GetUp action web site …”
Really!? Is this public knowledge or have I been under a rock? So, he’s not a fish, he’s human …
This implies Howard believes the bank will — ie. is unafraid to — increase rates a few days before an election (if it was hypothetically held 10th November). Interesting.
I think a rate rise days before an election will decide its outcome (in favour of Rudd). Either I’m wrong or Phil’s friend is wrong.
I think we should applaud the new GLEN for his rational comments of late. sure most of us disagree with his political leanings but at least he is now adding to the debate and not just rambling party political lines.SO good on you GLEN speak up for your beliefs I dont agree with them but you have every right to express them.may the best team {labour} win.
I take all this back if you start rambling again.
‘Privatise Costa’ Hardly a parliamentary statement.
Imagine, Michael Costa was a Trotskyite once! You could hardly find someone further right or more anti-green now.
A suprisingly common transformation. Piers Ackerman and PP McGuiness were once hard left Marxists/Trotskyites (I can never remember which). The ’spiked’ gang in the UK (a particularly nasty bunch). Rupert Murdoch had a bust of Marx in his room when at Oxford Uni. And so on.
I suspect we’re all reading too much into this poll. After all Galaxy, showing a big swing TO Labor, was not even a week ago. This poll is still within the MOE of just about every other poll, and I would want to see it repeated for a couple of weeks before I would think there would be anything resembling a trend. A poll on its own is largely meaningless.
The other mistake we’re all making is focussing on the 2PP – it’s the primaries that set the base for a win, and here Labor is still some 5-9 points clear (as it has been all year). In previous elections commentators would talk about the low ALP primary vote in polling, and talk about how they needed to get it to, say, 42%. This poll says Labor has over 46% of primary votes, and it’s very much at the lower end of the spectrum. Polling companies really indulge in informed guesswork when allocating preferences, so the 2PP in opinion polls is at best tenuous.
Finally, we all need to remember that any swing that does happen won’t be uniform. There might be big swings in safe seats, and not not in the marginals, or vice versa, and some States look like they will swing more than others. All of this skews the headline figure.
One more thing – there’s still a ways to go till polling day (at least 6 weeks and possibly up to 3 and half months), and anything could happen in that time to change (or harden) the dynamic. It certainly appears that Labor is on course for an historic and comprehensive victory, but I won’t be putting the champagne on ice just yet.
Richard – the same Lee Rhiannon whose parents were important cadres of the Communist Party of Australia – her mother in particular is a notorious Stalinist and Soviet apologist.
Us ex-Comms make the best right-wingers
As far as I’m concerned Hicks can rot in jail unti he recants his Islamo-fascist anti-Semite views, and Sheikh Hilali can join him. Is that right-wing enough for you Glen?
Skunkrat sez…
Not sure, Skunkrat. Was thinking more along the lines of a wager written with Textor-Colour.
Hugo (93),
Re. ” One more thing – there’s still a ways to go till polling day (at least 6 weeks and possibly up to 3 and half months), and anything could happen in that time to change (or harden) the dynamic. It certainly appears that Labor is on course for an historic and comprehensive victory, but I won’t be putting the champagne on ice just yet. ”
While that well may be true, it hasn’t stopped me from planning my shopping list for Dan Murphy’s
……. Julie
With views like that Adam surely you should be applying to his branch for membership? Or was that a joke. It is late on Friday my humor and irony detectors in text are down for maintenance …
It’s interesting that political debate, here and elsewhere, is so polarised between the far Left and the Liberal Party. The views that never get articulated, and never get any respect, are the those of the right wing of the Labor Party, even though they are the closest to the majority of public opinion. Never mind, we don’t care – we’ll take the power and leave the ideological cat-fighting to the extremes.
Lefty E
I went and looked at the accounts for Customs, they only go back to 99 (showing previous year 98)
In 1998
227 million on employees
192 million on suppliers
I suspect some services have since been contracted out but….
In 2006
396 million on employees
472 million on suppliers
I make the “cutback” as an increase of about 100%
Amen to that Adam – I love being part of the Labor Right!
Peter Stephens, I have never met Lee’s parents but so what if they are/were “cadres” of the Communist party? Jack Mundey was/is a Communist too and he is a folk hero. My parents were wealthy hard-line Conservatives involved in the armaments industry, so what?
I take Lee at face value and admire her immense courage standing up for causes the “Labor” Party once stood for but does no longer.
Check the Hansard and read the abuse heaped upon her from conservatives on both sides of the House. I wish there were more of her.
Quiz: what’s the difference between the Labor Right and the Liberal Party?
Labor Right is going to be in power real soon…
What part of the Liberal party?
You have Rudd at one end and Mussolini the other?
Richard Jones (103) – I suspect the answer in Catholicism.
Sorry – “is” not “in”.
Actually im just as sick of the Exclusive Brethren and i think they are a cult and im not happy Howard is meeting them…its all well and good to meet with the leaders of different faiths even though im not religious those people arent harming the community the Exclusive Brethren are bad news…the best the EB can do during elections is bang on about the Greens and all that junk…they have very little impact and dont win any votes after all i dont think they vote at all any way lol…
I think the Greens are the one minor party who is in a real pickle this election by all accounts their vote is down taken by Rudd and they are extremely disappointed with Labor’s decision to back the Gunns Pulp Mill…they’d never back Howard and dont like some of Rudd’s policies but will back him anyway…Could the Greens lose their NSW Senate spot if Labor’s vote surges in that state or could FF come from nowhere to clinch it i think we all thought Andren would somehow take that last spot but now its up for grabs…
Julie – Vintage Cellars sent their newsletter the other day, offering 3 bottles of NV Cattier for $100. I thought that looked like a pretty good investment for election night – I am tipping 1 December because I don’t think the polls will get any better for Howard.
Unity mate. Paint the town very moderately red.
I’d be highly surprised if the Greens got more than one Senator elected (Bob Brown must be a shoe-in), for reasons gone over ad nauseum previously (the consensus seems to be that each State expect Tassie will split 3-3). Glen is right to point out that the rise of Rudd Labor has won back a lot of those disaffected Labor voters, partly because they can see a winner. This could prove to be a very polarising election, where the minor parties get squeezed. There will no doubt then be much discussion about the demise of the minnows, though if Rudd does win, there is a pretty good chance of of DD soon after, where the minors could expect to make a bit of a comeback.
Richard Jones (103) – the difference is there are more class traitors in the Labor Right!
Even with the ALP leading in the polls at 55/45 (or thereabouts) there are two issues that will / may affect the ALP campaign that I have not seen mentioned on this blog.
1. The pulp mill – this is not doing the ALP any good, has given the Greens the perfect campaign weapon (the only party unsullied by the sorry saga), and Malcolm Turnbull is starting to wedge Labor over the issue. Whether it is the Geoffrey Cousins issue or not, MT has obviously been allowed the run of the issue by JWH. On the other hand, there can be no escaping that Paul Lennon’s (and hence by association the rest of the ALP) grubby hands are all over what is becoming a major issue. Peter Garrett is all at sea (he was dreadful on Radio National the other morning). The issue may also detach a few ‘doctors wives’ from at least giving the ALP their 2pp (after voting Green first) – and when you see Bob Brown giving the government credit for anything, well…If MT did rule out the pulp mill, pre election, he will have swept the carpet out from under the ALP, possibly kept Bass, possibly picked up Franklin (as Paul Lennon seems on the nose in Tas), and possibly delivered Denison to the Greens (anyone other Duncan Kerr would be worried). And even if, the ALP were included in the decision, it would provoke an almighty barney with the CFMEU. It would probably also deliver Wentworth back to MT, deliver Melbourne to the Greens and destabilise inner city seats (though I would imagine Tanya Plibersek to be safe). And lastly, if the libs were to win, MT would be hero of the moment and probably overtake Costello in the race for the leadership.
2. The Victorian Tattersalls allegations – this has probably got a long way to run, and could get a bit nasty for the state ALP and distract all and sundry during the campaign. Though it is probably better for the ALP that Bracksie has gone (did he know it was coming up now?) – the Libs are probably kicking themselves now that they don’t have a candidate in Albert Park.
Dont start dishing the unity faction people. It is where Mr Rudd comes from. You know, the Labor leader proposing an education revoultion, $2 billion solution to hospitals (with optional whacking stick), forward with fairness IR policy, staged withdrawal from Iraq, set targets to reduce climate change, increased R&D funding, just for starters.
Labor unity faction has taken the pulse of the general electorate, and responded with policies that are based on Labor’s moderate proggressive tradition.
Extremist populism can be left to the Howard’s of this world.
If the ALP win, Peter Garrett should ask for another portfolio rather than go to environment. At the moment, the hardheads have got him just where they need him, and he will be just held up to ridicule – it is starting to happen now – he’s smart, he could be given another portfolio.
Maybe Howard will be encourage by this poll and follow this advice:
PRESSURE is mounting on Prime Minister John Howard to go to the polls earlier than expected and call an October 20 election.
Key inflation figures that could damage the Federal Government’s re-election chances are to be released the following week.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22336778-953,00.html
“The Victorian Tattersalls allegations ” I have never heard of this.
————————–
On another subject. The Business Coalition are running their anti-Labor IR adds using quotes from newspapers, from business on business effects.
I wonder if Labor will now do the same, using quotes from BHP who said they can live with Labor’s IR policy.
Agree it was probably a mistake to give Garrett Environment. Turnbull (or was it Howard?) have been clever in extending the pulp mill decision date by 6 weeks. There is some chance that that will put it during the election campaign and ‘caretaker’ government period. Most commentators have not woken up to the fact that the decision cannot be further postponed – it is subject to a statutory time limit. The caretaker conventions will then require that the Minister consults the Opposition over the decision – in other words Labor will be compelled to agree with Turnbull’s decision. Turnbull/Howard have effectively cancelled the issue in Govt-Opposition terms and possibly created havoc with Green preferences as you (blackburnpseph) suggest.
blackburnpseph Says:If the ALP win, Peter Garrett should ask for another portfolio rather than go to environment.
I reckon aboriginal affairs. I really think that environmental issues are starting to become business issues, and I’m not sure that he has the experience to deal with the stakeholders. Unfortunately, aboriginal affairs is so far behind where it needs to be, that there needs to be a constant high-profile reminder of how important it is.
I’d like to be a fly on the wall when Bush meets Rudd…im sure it will be intense especially since Bush will have on hand General Petraeus’s report on hand…and much evidence available points to the ’surge’ having a positive impact…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22337285-601,00.html
Surge working: top US general
“General Petraeus told The Australian during a face-to-face interview at his Baghdad headquarters there had been a 75 per cent reduction in religious and ethnic killings since last year, a doubling in the seizure of insurgents’ weapons caches between January and August, a rise in the number of al-Qa’ida “kills and captures” and a fall in the number of coalition deaths from roadside bombings.”
Rudd would be careful to avoid talking much about Iraq least he repeat one of Mark Latham’s mistakes and vow to bring the troops home by Christmas…i wonder whether Rudd will redeploy the troops in Iraq to Afghanistan especially considering the Dutch are getting cold feet atm.
Any Green who preferences Coalition over Labor on this one issue would be stupid. The Coalition has done absolutely nothing for the environment in the 11 years it’s been in power. If they decide to do something now, it’ll be clear to the vast majority of Greenies that it’s only due to the election, just as it was clear to 52% that the NT intervention was only due to the election. Morgan trends have 80% of Greens prefs going to Labor; I don’t expect that to change at all.
A reminder also that this poll was done over TWO weekends; in one weekend, Newspoll had Labor up 55-45; in the 2nd, Galaxy had Labor up 57-43. In the same period, Morgan ph had Labor up 60-40. The real situation is probably about 57-43 Labor.
BigPictureGuy(81) – looks like I agree with you again. I well remember Labor’s attack ads back in the 1980’s. Crude, but effective. You have to make people sit up and take notice. Some nice polite, “vote for us please” ad is never going to be as effective as using a good old scare campaign, within reason.
Nice poll, much closer to the real state of affairs. After factoring in the usual Morgan madness, we have the Government on 46% and Labor on 41%, which is about what the election result will be. Krudd has hobbled himself with his ridiculous IR policy.
SK, where the H have you been since Monday????
Hello everyone, as “Stephen Phelps” I’ve been writing articles as about the Aussie Election on the UK’s politicalbetting.com site.
I’m as convinced as everyone here that Rudd is a shoe-in, but there’s one thing which I’m also convinced is going to happen that I haven’t factored in. A financial hiccup of major proportions, in October. Most big crashes occur in October, and the shenanigans of a couple of weeks ago are just a forewarning of what’s to come, in my opinion. The reasons are obvious – central bankers around the world are shit-scared, the US is heading for a recession, valuations in China are absurdly high and getting higher every day, etc etc. The implications of a sudden stop to the Chinese economic growth for the free-wheeling Aussie economy, which has gotten close to being dependent on high mineral prices, are big, to say the least. The Aussie dollar could easily take a massive and very sudden hit, much more than it did 10 or 12 days ago.
So what would be the electorate’s reaction? There are several possible scenarios, but if, for the sake of argument, the election had been announced for 3rd November and the biggest hit to the markets took place in the middle of October, then that would give everyone 2-3 weeks to think about it and it would almost certainly become the major issue. If Rudd isn’t preparing for such an eventuality, then he bloody well should be.
Any ideas?
libs have made a few mistakes sure but after 11 yrs u tell me one organisation that hasent.I agree workchoices went to far but the intent of a fair and flexibale workplace was there.Iraq could have been handled better but then again who for sure knew what that would turn out to be and as such i agree with with the better to be safe than sorry thesis.
just a few thoughts
Latham played silly buggers with the greens last election and lost two seats in Tassie.
The greens are irrelevant in the lower house, when will they realise this.
If the US Fed cut rates to maintain liquidity this will make our rates high in relative terms. Higher relative rates increase the value of the dollar and decrease the cost of imports (including petrol prices). Of course our reserve bank could respond and cut rates.
Conversation between George Bush and Kevin Rudd:
Kevin Rudd: ” I know you want to talk about Iraq”
George Bush: ” Hell boy, who gives a shite about Iraq. Tell me about the titties on those strippers at Scores. Were they big ones? “
That’s a very interesting scenario you make SP (126). Conventional wisdom suggests that the conservatives might benefit from a finacial shock, especially if it came so close to the election. I think Labor has been preparing for this, by talking about what happens after the commodities boom ends etc, but it would be a helluva thing to have to respond to in an election campaign.
Another reason why Howard should go earlier!
Paul K: George W knows a thing or two about strip clubs, alcohol, cocaine etc.
Are we all getting pollitis? Every new poll that comes out is analysed to the nth degree. Who on earth really knows what will happen on election day?
SP @ 126: That will be right. Labor gets into power whenever there is a recession in the air. Costello’s hot air about 15 years of Chinese unabated resources demand will look as short-sighted as it is. The Rudd message from the begining was looking beyond the mining boom will have more impact.
If it something like this happens in October then it will depend how long it takes to flow through to the economy. How fast would the hypothetical dominos fall USA – China – Aust?
I think it would be bad for the Govt who have squandered the decade of surpluses and relied on the resources industry – a message Labor will find easy to push is that of lazy and irresponsible govt.
AND if it is a real recession would you want to win power anyway? Wouldn’t take long before people worked out why the need unions.
Hmmm, I’d recommend some people here, Steven K. in particular, should have a look at Aristotle’s analyses, particularly the one on campaign fog. Also recommend Possum Comitatus for some very interesting analysis of possible sleepers which could cause the Coalition some heartburn. Kina, Bracks has just been on Stateline (local Vic. ABC version of 7.30 Report) giving very credible version of allegations raised about his giving Tatts the nod for further gaming licences. There have been rumblings around in Vic politics about whether this may have contributed to his decision to exit stage left. O.K. I know I’m biased but he certainly sounded and looked very believable (also have built in sceptic). Personally, I hope that Labor everywhere resist the temptation to dish the dirt and offer something more advanced than the mongrel behaviour excessively, repeatedly and hopefully, terminally contributory to their own demise as the LNP. Promise not to utter another adverb.
No body cares about Bracks. It’s a storm in a teacup except for the Journos who continue to bore us silly with the details.
1/ The election will be won and lost outside Victoria. Why would anybody think Bracks will upset seats outside of Victoria.
2/ No one in Victoria cares. The only things people in Melbourne are talking about is the Horse Flu and drugs in the AFL.
Bracks is another Sunrise or Brian Burke. No one cares.
I wonder what effect Bush conducting a bombing campaign on Iran would have?
Kina,
Love to debate it but we’ve been banned by William from discussing Iran or other foreign entanglements unless they directly involve Australia.
Why do people cite fluctuations in betting at one agency in an individual seat? (Eg Bennelong above?) Wouldn’t one decent size wager shift the odds?
ps – bets off (the nags) = bets on (the election)?
Is there an equivalent of equine virus for politicians?
Bush will not bomb Iran.. it is a game of bluff, if anyone does it will be Israel. On Bracks… I agree with you Paul K.. who cares.. nonetheless if Bracks has nothing to hide why doesn’t he front the inquiry.. smacks of arrogance and this is worry because that is why Kennett was defeated.
Or they share that government’s contempt for trust, integrity and democracy.
General Petraeus was hand-picked for his Bush-loyalty and his report is being written by the White House. It would be astonishing if he and it did not support the surge.
Paul K, Kina’s line of inquiry is fine: it is related directly to the election campaign.
Steven @ 124
Welcome back, Glen
True, by going to the electorate with WorkChoicesLite, Rudd gives people much less incentive to vote for him.
People who are relaxed and comfortable, except for WorkChoices anxiety might drift back to Howard.
anxiety, might
The election wont be won in Victoria because we already have a majority of A.L.P seats, so there’s not much more to add, 2-3 at the most.
To the person who suggested that Melbourne was only interested in AFL, I remind you that Melbourne is the centre of Australian Civilization, and the only European city on the continent.
John you are right… why did Labor change its’ IR policy whilst it was doing well in polls?
And where have the union ads gone… its alright to have business ads all over our screens but the union ads have dissappeared and why?
The unions will keep their powder dry for the campaign proper
If labour make the following gains;-
Bonner
Macquarie
Kingston
Wakefield
McMillan
Stirling
Hasluck
Bass
Braddon
and
Moreoin
Lindsay
Makin
Solomon
Eden Monaro
How long can Windsor & Katter support a minority government
If Howard or Howard and his successor happen to win this election, it will be the end of the polls as a predictor more than say a month before any election in future.
I cannot believe that some Greens are contemplating giving their preferences to Howard. It’s John McEnroe stuff. YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!
If the Greens voters are serious, fair dinkum, they could’nt win a veggie tray at the local pub.
They just do not know how to win.
On Iraq, Rudd’s policy is not immediate withdrawal, but rather for “a staged, planned phaseout in consultation with our allies.” That is code for a withdrawal in tandem with the US, who as everyone knows will be pulling out in stages after the current “surge” ends sometime early next year. The Republican Party wants the US well out of Iraq by next November, and we will withdraw as they do. This is a very conservative policy when you consider the highly anti-Bush and antiwar views of most Labor voters, and indeed of many others. Rudd is as pro-US alliance any PM Australia has had. If a Democrat wins the White House next year, as seems likely, Australia and the US will again be in perfect concert, and it will be the Libs who will be out in the cold. Howard’s attack on Obama was very stupid politics from that point of view.
Paul K, I am puzzled by your last comment, which had nothing at all to do with the election (and which I have deleted).
did i read correctly?? glen not happy with something JWH did (meeting
exclusive brethren)? This, along with the Oz writing a critical editorial, what’s happening to the right wing???!!!
come to mention glen and steven kaye, can anyone recall a few months from the 1996 election, were ALP supporters defending Keating, predicting a comeback, disbelieving the polls etc etc like the Libs are now???
and steven kaye re: IR, get over it, workchoices is a dog, rudd got as positive a response as he could have expected eg. BHP said they could live with it, Oz editorial was complementary etc. If you really think IR is a loser for Rudd and a winner for Howard, you may as well plan your opposition line up from now
William,
I was just having fun with you. I knew it was off topic but I couldn’t resist being “naughty”.
146
John Withheld :
It is Hardly WorkChoices lite – it achieves the fundamental and most important goals
1. collective baragaining for those that need it most [ie workers are no longer bound hand and foot and gagged when negotiating conditions and wages - the real reason Workchoices was unacceptable]
2. Unfair dismissal laws
Other things can be easily dealt with later and in degrees to achieve the ultimate ends. The fundamental change is what it is about.
People should look at this battle in the long term not just in the light of election conditions.
Rudd’s is a clever strategic policy.
Opposition Shadow Ministry 2009:
Leader of the Opposition: Wilson Tuckey
Deputy Leader and Shadow Treasurer: Bronwyn Bishop
Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs: Bill Heffernan
Shadow Minister for Industrial Relations: Sophie Mirabopoulos
Shadow Minister for Defence: Ross Lightfoot
Shadow Minister for Environment and Nuclear Power Stations: Dennis Jensen
Shadow Minister for Handouts to Farmers: Alby Schultz
Shadow Minister for Everything Else: Danna Vale
It seems Noel Brunning is NOT pulling out.
http://www.noelbrunning.com.au/Campaign%20News/Article?news_id=2273
For celebration and commiseration alike:Pol Roger NV: simply superb. Or Gosset, if you can track some down. If you want to blow the bank, Krug. Leave DP, Moet, Cristal and Veuve (especially Veuve!) to others.
To deal with the topic: Has Morgan been within 55-58 most of the year?
Shadow minister for Defence: Ross Lightfoot
OH God;OH God We are all going to die ( Apologies to Joss Wheedon)
Nath @ 148
That’s a BS – ” the centre of Australian Civilisation … ” but after living in Sydney for a coupla years after Melbourne, I’m inclined to agree.
Is Iran Howard’s rabbit from the hat? If so, the punters won’t wear it. Another war, another scare campaign? Besides which, we do not have the military capacity.
” 160
Adam Says:
August 31st, 2007 at 9:10 pm
Opposition Shadow Ministry 2009:”
Adam,
I would have thought that Bill Heffernan would get Shadow Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Women’s Issues
Here is Bush’s Briefing on APEC.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/08/20070830-2.html
I of course forgot:
Leader of the Nationals and Shadow Minister for Ports and Rorts: Barnaby Joyce
Deputy Leader of the Nationals and Shadow Minister for Health and Fitness: Ron Boswell
Why does Morgan bother, seriously? Interestingly, in NZ his is the one poll that is taken seriously. Is it because Morgan has a different survey methodology over the Tasman or because NZ lacks other credible pollsters?
On Monday, the Adelaide edition of Today Tonight is running a puff piece on Nicole Cornes. She is the ALP candidate for Boothby, and wife of famous Green voting, Vietnam Veteran, AM radio host, Advertiser columnist, former SANFL footballer/AFL coach, Graeme.
This one is funnier:
http://www.whitehouse.org/
Re comment 131 above – I am awake, and it took me only a few seconds to find that comment 131 is pretty much a copy of a post dated 26 Aug at topstocks.com.au. What ruawake neglected to tell us here is that two responses were posted in the same thread (on 27 & 31 Aug) which rebut the claims. The second of these provided this link to a very credible non-conspiracy explanation.
Pi
Now Peter Garrett for Indigenous Affairs would be outstanding. He has a great heart for Social Justice and at the moment, his choice for a spot on the bed inside with a muzzle seems to have been a mistake, when good old Peter could have been barking like mad from his own leaky kennel outside… Bob Brown, maybe your wisdom should have prevailed here…
I like Peter and one day he will do remarkable good. He is a visionary.
To all and Sundry
I don’t make a lot of this poll (or many others) lately. Only us tragics really care, I think the whole electorate is getting election fatigue and it hasn’t even begun yet (officially).
The IR issue is intriguing. Certainly a dead weight for the coalition, yet Labor, being Labor 2007, has not been able to capitalise on it. The electorate has swung right since 1996 and Labor has skewed to catch the swings but the end result of the IR alternative is perhaps a little too messy for the electorate.
Remember the Hewson lesson: Joe Punter does not like detail. Julia Gillard came perilously close to lighting candles on a birthday cake with Tony Jones on Wednesday night about AWA’s. I barely understood and I track it daily!
If the electorate gets really bored and thinks that the two majors are too similar, we could get a 1998 breakout like Pauline got with disenchanted voters feeling the “sameness” of the big two. Greens, FF and (especially) Dems might be beneficiaries. This is unlikely to change to lower house but may affect the upper.
I’d like a pseph here to recalibrate some TPPs not on preferences from last election but current likely preferences weighted by voter support (by party) for HTVs.
In other words, I wonder what it would look like across the Senate with this current (fairly stable) Labor margin, but with Greens on open ticket (perhaps), FFP preferencing Labor (quite possible), Dems preferencing Labor and all weighted by HTV obedience (say on the last Federal election)??
I think there would be (of course) an excellent chance of Labor in HOR but perhaps even, shall we say, a non-coalition controlled senate.
(If you wanted it even more realistic, factor in a poll margin shrink aggregated on the last four feds)
Any takers?
Paul K, doing what I asked you not to do does not amuse me. I have just deleted some tinfoil hat conspiracy theorising from ruawake (which I glazed over the first time I read it – thank you for alerting me, Canberra Boy) and an utterly off topic comment by Kina (who was doing this last night as well).
Kina (133)
I can see it all now. Crash in Late October, Rudd takes office in early November.
Then the conservatives start with their bulls**t and tell us it was Labor’s fault.
Like Scullian and the 1929 stock market crash…
I don’t think the electorate is ‘bored’ with Howard and am not sure that they have taken much notice of things yet except to think Howard’s various BS has annoyed them enough times in the past as to want to get rid of him. They are probably also thinking the China boom is why the economy is good. AND Rudd looks sort of OK and has some good sounding ideas and is getting rid of that terrible WorkChoices.
Bored is the concept the Govt supporting commentators invented to not face the fact that it is the things the govt has done that has actually put them on the nose. Abbott’s ’sleep walking’ statement does the same, ignores the various things they have done in the past that has left an indelible negative impression. Denial.
It is only those taking a closer interest in things that are getting frustrated with this long ‘election’ campaign.
The average punter will tune in more once the election is called. The only thing happening at the moment is that they are getting used to Rudd being around and probably accepting him more. AND to that end much of the govt’s natural advantage has been eroded – economy, interest rates and security [not to mention that unpleasant Bush guy].
George Bush thinks Howard might win the election. With an endorsement like that, I guess, it’s all over for Rudd. Labor might as well pack up their bags.
Paul k George Bush merely pointed out the obvious that Howard has always been behind in the polls leading up to an election bar 1996 and has come from behind to win…anyway of course Bush would want the Man of Steel to be elected…and Rudd will be more anti-American than Big Kim would have been because there are alot of hard left wingers on his front bench Gillard included…
I think APEC will be a plus for Howard…Rudd will be on the outer whining about how its an irrelevant body while Howard makes a concerted effort towards an agreement on a shared goal for emission targets…It also reasserts his stateman like image to the public…i cant see APEC being a positive for Kevin Rudd except for the old line that he’ll stand up to Bush…there goes more votes from the Greens lol.
There is no way Howard will significatly delay calling the election after APEC.
- His 3 years is virtually up. Everybody knows it.
- The public are sick of the phoney campaign. Since February.
- Delaying the election makes him look like “Mr Araldite”.
- The media will go crackers with frenzied speculation on dates and this will make the PM look tricky by postponing what everybody wants.
- The ALP can smear the PM as a desperate old man who doesn’t want to give up power and face the people.
There is nothing in it for the PM to hang on. Especially when has said in recent days that he doesn’t think the polls will change until the campaign proper begins.
Consider an announcement shortly after APEC. A six week campaign for an election date of October 27th. A extra week of campaigning may offset some of the focus paid to the boring football finals in late September. (Sorry, but footballers are a bunch of arrogant poncing prima donnas wrapped up in their own imagined self-importance).
The benefits for Howard calling the election soon includes:
1. Keeping the element of surprise
2. Clearing the air and neutralising bad publicity
3. Facing the inevitable with decisive action
4. Avoiding a possible interest rate increase in November
5. Avoiding any disruption to holiday plans centered on the wonderful racing carnival in Victoria. People may also start to question possible incompetence within the ministry resposible for quarantine management.
See, I’m not completely anti-sport. Anyone for tennis?
71
Kina Says:
August 31st, 2007 at 4:43 pm
” I reckon some of these political commentators must live in a vaccum or believe that corrupt government doesn’t bother people. They dont face the fact that maybe this government deserves to get booted out and that many of the people think so too”
I share your sentiment Kina, but the last 3 elections indicate a government that is “corrupt” and probably “deserves to get booted out” has not been evicted from office.
The impressive list of evidence substantiating your view could be 1000 pages long {I thought of quite a few myself}.
Unfortunately, I take the sad but realist view that the hip pocket nerve {wallet/purse} and the well being of those within eye shot of our disengaged world view will be the subjective motivator of our ‘vote’ at elections.
I think this is primarily so because we live in an imperfect, competitive world where my gain will too often be at your expense.
The Howard battlers may well be concerned about and very aware of the corrupt and inexorable list of Howard’s failings and even the pork barrelling I keep reminding us about.
However, I still beleive many will vote for Howard again if they think he is the safest bet on economic security and Rudd’s IR policy is either poorly presented by Labor or infused with enough doubt and fear that it becomes too much of a gamble for them.
Still, I would like to think that some will have had enough, that Howard has gone too far with his morally and ethically bankrupt pork barrelling and the youth vote and those of their parents will get Rudd across the line.
that 54.5 for Rudd on this Morgan poll is way too close to the 53-47 2PP cdomfort zone I was/am hoping can keep ahead of, at least until the wash out of APEC has had its run in the polls.
Glen, it’s S C U L L I N.
The fate of the Scullin government will no doubt be on Rudd’s mind. Scullin came to office facing an economic crisis and a hostile Senate. He was urged to go for a double dissolution in 1930, but he lacked the nerve, and as a result the Senate rejected Theodore’s Fiduciary Notes bill, the world’s first attempt at a Keynesian counter-cyclical response to the depression. Who knows what might have happened if Scullin had taken the plunge? This lesson was not lost on Whitlam, who at the first whiff of Senate obstructionism in 1974 went straight to Yarralumla for a double dissolution. I’m sure Rudd will be aware of these historical lessons, and if he isn’t I’ll remind him.
Shoud read
That 54.5 for Rudd on this Morgan poll is way too close to the 53-47 2PP comfort zone I was/am hoping Rudd could keep well ahead of at least until the wash out of APEC has had its run in the polls.
Some right wing Laborites just don’t get it. A right win Labor government will differ only marginally from a Howard government. I would bet that Kevin Rudd would also have gone into Iraq if he had been PM at the time.
It’s politically convenient now to make noises like American Democrats.
What is the point in Greens giving preferences to a conservative Labor Party which differs so little from the Howard government? Wouldn’t it be better to preference the Liberals, knowing John Howard will go anyway in a year and be replaced by someone more moderate than Kevin Rudd? It may be worth keeping Kevin Rudd out so that we can get someone who actually cares for the environment, as opposition leader and then PM.
Bob Brown won’t need to advise Green voters to preference other than Labor. Voters will make up their own minds. It might just bring Labor back to the middle ground.
that’s right wing
Keen on thoughts about Beattie and the council amalgamations.
Local issues have cost Wayne Goss the Premiership in 1996, Rattled Noosa in 2006 and will they have any impact on Federal voting intention in 2007?
We know that Queensland is quite bipolar with State and Federal voting… any impact here? What is Beattie playing at??
(Kevin Rudd would also have gone into Iraq if he had been PM at the time)
Rudd may have made a token contribution just like Hawke did in the first Gulf War but I doubt he would have gone in boots and all like Howard did.
Clap Clap Adam wow i couldnt remember how to spell the name of a Prime Minister who last took power more than 70 years ago…its nice to have people to point out innocent spelling mistakes where would we be without you…
I’ve said ideally Howard needs to be 53-47 behind the ALP to have enough time in the campaign to pull back support…Morgan’s numbers are encouraging if you call a landslide victory to the ALP encouraging from my point of view of course not…Nevertheless im sure we’ll all be waiting on the next polls and they are likely to show a swing back to the government as the last polls were in the middle of the Costello Dinner/Book affair…
Rudd should be very wary of a concerted L-plate campaign against him because i am almost certain one is in the pipe works…God even Latham ran a council (unsuccessfully) Rudd’s not run anything and his leadership or lack of leadership experience will be the one thing the Coalition has to hit on in its advertising if its to have any chance of stopping a Labor victory…
“What is Beattie playing at??”
Didn’t Beattie and Goss have a falling out in 1994?
Wasn’t Rudd the chief of staff for Goss in 1994?
Could be some personal history between them.
Is anyone else watching the athletics on SBS? Have you noticed how many Howard government progoganda ads they are running in the commercial breaks? Is the head of SBS a paid up member of the Liberal Party?
Some say it would be advantagous for Rudd to get the ‘2 strikes’ on IR and have a DD election because ALL the senate seats are up for grabs and on current trends Labor might actually grab a senate majority and not have to play footsies with the likes of Katter.
With that advantage he could shove a heap of reforms through both houses and construct them so well that they can not be substantially deconstructed by the Coalition when they get back in, taking a leaf out of their own book.
But there is that annoying HOR and half senate election to win first; damn it.
Who cares (well for tonight at least), South Sydney have just made the finals for the first time since 1989 and may even finish as high as 4th!!!
Go the Rabbitohs.
HH, they are running lots of Workchoices ads on C9 as well during the Rugby League broadcast as well.
So glad John & Peter are spending our money so wisely.
Why would Rudd be guaranteed a Senate majority if he had a DD election??? It didnt work for Fraser why should it work for Rudd what would happen if the ALP still couldnt get any policy through… Governor General – Major-General Michael Jeffery might have to send Rudd packing and install another Malcolm to power…
I just think it would be fool hardy and a waste of money to have a DD election also if the result was so close Rudd could lose power like Canadian Progressive Conservative Joe Clark did after winning office in 1979 as a minority government then lost a no-confidence motion and then lost badly in 1980 against the Liberals…thus a DD election after a closely fought Federal Election would be dangerous for Rudd people may feel like they’ve got rid of Howard but want the Coalition back running things…
There you go again Glen, playing the man and not the ball. 1 rational, almost balanced post followed by 50 repetetive, baseless rants. Boring !
I think all commercial channels are in Howard Propaganda mode atm, and no doubt will increase next week as footy finals get into full swing.
Also, those workchoice ads have a Barbara Bennett sound-alike voice-over as well, no doubt the original ads with her on them got pulled cos of the controversy of having her as the face of the ads.
Glen that was 30 years ago mate, get real please. Fraser is not Howard and Rudd is not Gough.
Then again, the way things are going all Rudd will have to do is campaign right ‘You cant just spend, spend, spend ‘ {Malcolm Fraser} and drive a wedge between the electorate and big spending JWH on economic sobriety and it will be all over. Rudd is not stupid mate, you under estimate him too often.
Ollie,
I don’t buy the DD theory. I reckon the Libs will negotiate with Rudd to pass Labor’s legislation. Consider the following:
1/ Howard will be gone and his IR policies will get a large chunk of the blame.
2/ Will the new Leader of the Opposition really want to take on Rudd, possibly in a Honeymoon period on an issue like IR again? If he loses the DD election the knives will be out.
3/ The Libs will want to dump Work Choices as it’s a loser’s policy. The Libs hate Medicare but they’ve changed their position on it as to oppose it would be suicide. Same with Rudd’s IR policies. The Libs will hate it but they’ll swallow it because they have to.
Good night. Happy Father’s day to those who have sporned breeders.
Ollie i could call your Howard bashing posts boring or repetitive but i dont mate…I am merely pointing out that a DD election is no guarantee for success…i think there’s been enough Howard bashing on this blog to last a lifetime so i dont think im playing the man compared to others…
I’m not underestimating Rudd at all i dont think he’s stupid or he wouldnt be 10 points ahead of an 11 year incumbent government with a good economic record…Rudd will break the record books by beating Howard…even i know he’s no Latham which makes it all the more difficult for Howard to win…
Wonder when Newspoll will be out next??
Glen I didn’ t ascribe to the theory, I stated “some say” and I didnt say Rudd would be guarenteed a senate majority anyway, I state he MIGHT. If you are going to debate people try reading their text carefully first mate, it might give you some base of credibility from which to build an argument.
Here ends the lesson.
Good night all.
PS Paul K, an interesting alternative perspective.
People seem to forget the make up of the Labor party and, that it is not simply Rudd though he has his head during the election campaign. You will quickly realise that there are green friendly people making up the party and they are not passive whimps. It nonsense to suggest that Rudd will follow a psuedo-Howard right-wing line based on what you are seeing in the election period. The idea that Greens may as well preference Howard is a vote for a nuclear industry, fake Climate Change policy, WorkChoice part 2 and nothing particularly green friendly if it is opposed to business intersest. How quickly the nature of Howard and Co is forgotten.
Hmmmm………
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22343218-601,00.html
Now Turnbull really does have his balls in a vise. If he doesn’t approve the mill, Howard, the Tasmanian government, the timber union and the business lobby will beat up on him – quite a combination. If he approves the mill, he will probably lose his seat – Wentworth is full of rich greenies who don’t need to work in pulp mills. My spies in Sydney today told me that they already believe he is, quote, cactus, and a rich-greeny revolt in Rose Bay is all he needs to tip him over the edge. Labor’s line is that we support a mill in principle, because we support jobs for Tasmanian workers. But we are sceptical about the fast-track approval process for this mill in this location, so we are not approving the current proposal just yet. Of course, we don’t have to make a decision, because we are in opposition. Turnbull does have to make a decision, and soon. But whichever way he jumps he lands in deep doodoo.
Glen
Tell me, what you know of this story that the SA Govt has employed the services of Crosby Textor?
If it is true, what is your considered opinion?
Maybe Turnbull can be heroic, challenge Howard, win and carry the day.
I wonder…….
Re (176),
” I think APEC will be a plus for Howard ….”
It won’t get him any votes anywhere in the greater Sydney area. Bush’s phony apology about being “sorry for the problems his visit will cause” was TOO much >;-(
I live in SW Sydney and even out here (Werriwa electorate) we want it to all go away. The disruptions and problems will not gain Howard any favorable light. The only thing we are thinking up here is that we want APEC to bloody be over so that JH can get onto the real business of calling the election ;-D ….. Julie
This imagery from 2004 contributed to the downfall of Latham and the Labor brand at the 2004 election, and, some argue, swung the vote against Labor in Braddon and {not again, please} Bass by depicting Labor as anti- jobs and Howard as pro-jobs.
Howard said:
“I still remain very optimistic that this pulp mill can and will be built,†the Prime Minister said. “It is very important for jobs in Tasmania and I am pro-jobs. I demonstrated three years ago (in the 2004 forestry election policy) that I’m a better friend of the workers in the timber industry in Tasmania than anyone in the ALP.â€
He tried to do same, ironically in the timber industry again, in the Coalition marginal seat of Eden Monaro, by claiming the NSW State Government was going to be the blame for the loss of 130 timber workers jobs if they chose not to guarentee access to timber controlled by the State Government.
In 2004, Howard depicted Labor as ‘anti logging’ and ‘anti jobs’. A complete lie in fact, but the damage was done. There was the camera crews happily presenting an image of JWH ’saving jobs’ and getting a grateful pat on the back from Union officials of all people a week out from the election.
This time around, Labor has taken the middle ground but should be aiming at the ‘alternative site’ scenario: good for jobs, good for business and the Tasmanian economy, and good for environmental tourism as well.
If I was Howard, I would have made a hero of myself by ordering Turnbull to approve the mill at the alternative site in order to protect Turnbull from extinction in Wentworth, remind the electorate in Bass that the Labor brand put jobs at risk in Bass in 2004, and try to con the electorate general that he is not ALWAYS going to favor business interests ahead of everthing and everyone else.
But no, he is prepared to sacrifice Turnbull and his seat of Wentworth to put this issue to bed because it is damaging the Coalition brand amongst the mainland electorate and ascribing anti-Coalition sentiment to ‘popular’ Australians such as Kate Blanchett. Remember the ‘Its time’ campaign ?
John Howard no longer supports his Environment Minister. His nerve has failed. Malcolm Turnbull will still most likely do the right thing, that is look very carefully at the impacts of the dioxin etc and make his decision based on those impacts. I doubt if he will be that influenced by John Howard. It’s an interesting showdown. Malcolm is after all wishing to replace John Howard.
It’s good that finally finally Peter Garrett has spoken out about the old growth forests. He may have been stung by the article in the Australian yesterday. Peter may just have avoided the wedge.
Now it’s Malcolm who is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
So, John Howard is still pretending to be the best friend of the CFMEU.
What a joke. John Howard is John Howard’s best friend.
“John Howard is John Howard’s best friend.”
Actually, I think this year has proven that John Howard has become his own worst enemy. How many gaffes and miscalculations have we had so far?
113 gaffes and miscalculations, just a guess.
“Oh wherefore art thou Arthur, my scheming knight, when I needst thou most? Why hast thou deserted me? Wouldst thou leave thy friend in the midst of the battlefield surrounded by dead bodies with but a lame horse to keep me company?”
And by scheduling his decision during the real election campaign, Turnbull is using the caretaker convention to handcuff himself to Garret as he makes that jump.
Garret &/or Rudd will be forced to announce a decision and no matter if they say ‘yes’, ‘no’ or ‘wait’ Turnbull &/or Howard can use it to beat them up. I predict a Rudddism:
“Do we have all the information available to the government assessment process? No we don’t. Are we certain this is the right decision? No we’re not. Will we support it anyway? Yes we will.”
Which will mean that the final decision, made by Howard and endorsed by Rudd, is craven and poll-driven and not based on science and what’s best for the nation and planet.
Ain’t democracy grand?
Richard I honestly believe that a country like the US would never have gone to war with another country based on false intelligence. They knew there were no WMDs and so did Howard. Proven by the fact that Hans Blix was not given another two weeks to finish his job. (Hussein was on the verge of being declared disarmed, so they had to act when they did). I agree with the comments of Paul K at 185.
Maybe if the liberals could be honest (that’s a big call) or had a plan for their succession of leadership, Greens voters could entertain the thought of preferencing liberal. Otherwise it’s still John McEnroe – YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS.
I would urge every (100%) Greens voter to preference labor.
“John Howard is John Howard’s best friend.”
Arthur Sindonis was John Howard’s best (political) friend.
Amazing what a difference one news article makes. We go from “Howard/Turnbull using the Grens to lead the ALP into a trap” to “Howard has sold Turnbull up the river, and he is now cactus”.
I suspect nobody has any real idea how this will translate vote-wise, either in Tas or Wentworth or elsewhere, and that includes the political protagonists! The pulp mill issue looks like a hand grenade with the pin removed, frantically tossed between the ALP and the Libs.
Sorry, but this is slightly off topic. If Joe Hockey wants to scare people with footage of union bosses coercing their work colleagues, he should start talking to Fox8:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RBskUggDpg
The bloody Labor Right is what’s wrong with this country. Tory’s bloody tory’s. We live in an extremist nation and they don’t do a thing.
Here’s the actual make up of parlament:
HoR: Tory:149, other 1
Senate: Tory:70, other 6 (greens + Bartlet and Natasha)
At the adelaide uni the two major parties are Activate (labor left backing) and Pulse (Labor right backing). Last year the Libs didn’t run because as Pulse was running on privitizing the campus bar they didn’t need to (this year Pulse, which didn’t win control last time is running anti privitization so the libs are running). Point is Labor right such as Rudd is RIGHT. probably slightly more right than liberal left.
Come back Gough!
What would have happened if he hadn’t listened and asked Kerr to resign instead? Short lived small scale civil war?
Rudd is a sex symbol thats why Labors ahead. Its worth a good 7% of the vote.
Richard Jones writes:
“What is the point in Greens giving preferences to a conservative Labor Party which differs so little from the Howard government? Wouldn’t it be better to preference the Liberals”.
Suggesting it was the silliest thing Bob Brown has done. They won’t do it of cause, but suggesting it in this environment probable lost the Greens several points. The Howard Government has done many things that the average Green voter should and I would suggest does find difficult to swallow.
That one action moved my senate vote back to the Democrats ( I don’t believe either major party should have a majority in the senate).
This year will be good for the Greens because:
1. Pulp Mill is of Franklon proportions (and an even worse idea)
2. Rudd is an economic conservitive and a social conservitive. Labor left is dead and a lot of people are beginning to wake up to the fact that there are only so many Penny Wong’s in Caucus.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE! The only issue that actually matters. You don’t have to be left to realise this and some right wingers will vote Green so that the economy is not in a serious crisis 25 yrs from now! Think about it what else matters? This is big.
4. Water, sustainability
5. The pigs (labor) have finaly got up on their hind legs. Some Animals are more equal than others. Their IR policy is far-right (by European standards anyway) and the unions are increasingly donating to the Greens. Many concerned about workchoices will vote green not labor.
Therefore after minusing off the ‘Rudd personality cult factor’ and the fact that the smears will be no worse than in the past and you have a 1.5% swing to the Greens.
Charles, just between you and me, as is widely known the Greens will never ever ever preference lib above lab. Just don’t tell Labor this. It is however a good move by Brown coz it makes a split/open ticket more conseivable and leads to a better preference deal with labor. Split ticket is not only possible it is likely
If suggesting a deal with the liberals makes the greens vote drop slightly now, that drop will rise back up again when they don’t actually preference the liberals. The Greens should run an open ticket in all safe House seats. That ought to get Labor serious about prefencing the greens and acting on the environment (well no it wont but ummm you know…).
It hurts the most when Laborites make far right comments. You have to expect it from Glen, Nostra. etc. but it hurts more when Adam talks so openly of mistreating Hicks. It just goes to highlight that those glory days when Labor stood up for oppressed people is gone. just like in the Uk with Tony Blair, sorry i mean Tory Blair.
Molotov, a little more economy with your commenting please.
Richard Jones writes:
“What is the point in Greens giving preferences to a conservative Labor Party which differs so little from the Howard government? Wouldn’t it be better to preference the Liberalsâ€.
Richard, you and I and everyone else knows that in politics the choices are often between the lesser of two evils. ‘Twas always thus, and thus shall always be. (Apologies to ‘Dead Poet’s Society’.)
If the Greens vote conservative, especially Howard conservative, they are only going to further seriously damage their cause. There is no realistic alternative for them but to support Labor in the lower house (if only via preferences), and make their protest vote in the upper house where it might actually count. Any other position is self-defeating, in both the short and long term. And I bet 90% plus of Greens voters know that, and will vote accordingly.
Not saying I like that situation, but it is the truth about the current Oz politial scene.
The Greens have, and always have had, 2 main problems as I see it as a former Green.
1. Everyone knows most of the votes will end up with the ALP.
The solutions are either tactical voting (vote Lib in ALP safe seats to show it can happen), or open/split tickets.
However most Green voters will vote ALP despite the HTV (preferencing Libs could hurt anyway)
2. The Greens need to be seen to be more then single issue.
The problem is that the Greens are good with the environment message so use what little coverage they get putting that message across. The media generally also usually only ask a Green MP to comment on enviro issues.
The options I can think of are both very difficult.
a. Drop the enviro issues and run on the other stuff. (If voters aren’t aware that the Greens are pro-environment, dont know how anything will change that) There are way too many greenies for this to happen anytime soon.
b. Spit the party in two. The Greens and the Welfare/Education/Health Party. Make an allience. Not enough members, funds, etc.
Sorry about being off topic, but until these two things change, the chances of the Greens getting more then 2-3 reps and 6 senators per election is virtually impossible.
Most Greens will preference the ALP, not because they like them but, as has been mentioned before, because they are the lesser of two evils. The same will go for the bulk of Green HTV’s distributed. But lets be clear, many Greens also remember very well various state ALP sell outs and questionable local council decisions, and so will always have that in the back of their minds.
As to splitting into 2 parties, it wouldn’t work – the power of the ALP/Coalition in being able to blanket the media and advertising means there is a need for progressives to band together to get a word (or advert) in edgeways. And as to dropping the environmental platform, well, you’re right Bert, that aint happening any time soon, if only because its one of the 4 principles of the party. That said, many Greens MPs do spend a lot of time campaigning on health/education/welfare etc, but it has more to do with the philosophy than anything else – our relations with each other also determine out relations with the environment – if we think we can exploit each other we wont worry about exploiting nature etc.
Bert
Some astute reasoning there, I would say. The Greens had a clear role in being the “Left Ballast” as the Labor party was shifting right to re-capture the Blue collars now living in mansions and sending their kids to private schools.
Most commentators admit that Latham was a liability in many ways but he most seriously damaged the Labor party politically. A lack of understanding of core demographics would have shown him that some of the fastest growing areas of Australia are dominated by outer-suburban developments with many newly affluent tradies… choosing to send their kids to low-mid fee independent schools. Thus the “private schools hit list” was as much a death knell for winning this group as the ill-fated forests push was irrelevant to them (Doctor’s wives aren’t abundant by any means).
Now, there is a serious issue with the Greens, of the same type that Pauline’s One Nation party faced on the right, they are a group of barbarians. I most certainly don’t mean that in the derogoratory sense, simply that they are many “tribes” under the one disaffected banner.
In the 1990s, with the fall of many socialist powers, the shrinkage of the parties in democracies led to retreat, largely under “Green movements” which became politicised. These parties were now far more left than the previous non-political movements and policies blended many old-school socialist ideals. Some “greens” (small g) weren’t (and still aren’t) happy about this but felt that it was a necessary evil to finally find their voice democratically.
Over time, majors (worldwide and in OZ) have had to become environmentally aware, so the ennvironmental message is diluted. Still most extreme in the greens but most parties now have a solid platform. With the wind out of their sails, some (small g) greens have retreated to the politics of the ALP.
This may explain the stabilised but lower Green vote (6-8%) since 2004, nowhere near the 10% desired. Subsequent State elections since 2004 have also been disappointing for the Greens. If this continues, it will go the way of ONP, with the loudest voices causing splits and fractures. The recent call for the unions to go Green is an example of this. Many Greens find the industries represented by trade unions as some of the greatest causes of wildlife destruction, erosion, contaminated waterways and greenhouse emissions. Very strange bedfellows indeed, despite the “left” politics of both..
This election will be interesting as a barometer of the future of Green influence in our politics.
Where else can the left vote but with the greens? Socialist Alliance will never be electable and who else is there on the left? HEMP (single issue)and the Progresive Labor Party (are they running), thats about it. The Greens only get on with certain unions in environmentaly friendly industries. What does our good friend Bill Weller of the AMWU have to say?
William sorry for my excesives. I also tone down some of my comments (214, 222) in the sober hindsight of the morn.
Fly on the wall says:-
Did Malcolm Turnbull phone John Howard and give him an almighty blast about his contradictory comments on the pulp mill?
Did Malcolm Turnbull threaten to resign if John Howard didn’t immediately
publish a clarification of his comments and support his process?
Is John Howard now back in his box on this issue?
Has Malcolm Turnbull saved his seat and wedged Peter Garrett?
Is John Howard demonstrating that he is now just a dithering old man?
What will Labor do if it wins the election, and it has to make the final decision on whether a pulp mill can be built in the Tamar Valley? We just don’t know, and I doubt that Rudd and Garrett can fart around till election day without answering this question.
I think Howard is a small-picture politician, who’ll see the pulp mill issue in terms of how it will swing votes in Bass and Braddon. That’s not a criticism – just my perception of how Howard thinks. I think Turnbull is a broader thinker, who worries about the national perception, but also doesn’t want to lose his seat.
I don’t think Howard is really worried about losing his seat. winning the election is, understandably, what matters to him, and what will determine his place in history.
But it’s still not impossible for the coalition to win the election, while Howard loses his seat. That situation would be fascinating, and unprecedented.