Roy Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face poll comes in at the lower end of market expectations for Labor, whose two-party lead has narrowed to 54.5-45.5 from 58.5-41.5 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49.5 per cent to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s up from 36.5 per cent to 41 per cent. This is from a sample of 1271 voters, which is unusually small for a Morgan face-to-face.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 54.5-45.5
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230 Comments
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Amen to that Adam – I love being part of the Labor Right!
Peter Stephens, I have never met Lee’s parents but so what if they are/were “cadres” of the Communist party? Jack Mundey was/is a Communist too and he is a folk hero. My parents were wealthy hard-line Conservatives involved in the armaments industry, so what?
I take Lee at face value and admire her immense courage standing up for causes the “Labor” Party once stood for but does no longer.
Check the Hansard and read the abuse heaped upon her from conservatives on both sides of the House. I wish there were more of her.
Quiz: what’s the difference between the Labor Right and the Liberal Party?
Labor Right is going to be in power real soon…
What part of the Liberal party?
You have Rudd at one end and Mussolini the other?
Richard Jones (103) – I suspect the answer in Catholicism.
Sorry – “is” not “in”.
Actually im just as sick of the Exclusive Brethren and i think they are a cult and im not happy Howard is meeting them…its all well and good to meet with the leaders of different faiths even though im not religious those people arent harming the community the Exclusive Brethren are bad news…the best the EB can do during elections is bang on about the Greens and all that junk…they have very little impact and dont win any votes after all i dont think they vote at all any way lol…
I think the Greens are the one minor party who is in a real pickle this election by all accounts their vote is down taken by Rudd and they are extremely disappointed with Labor’s decision to back the Gunns Pulp Mill…they’d never back Howard and dont like some of Rudd’s policies but will back him anyway…Could the Greens lose their NSW Senate spot if Labor’s vote surges in that state or could FF come from nowhere to clinch it i think we all thought Andren would somehow take that last spot but now its up for grabs…
Julie – Vintage Cellars sent their newsletter the other day, offering 3 bottles of NV Cattier for $100. I thought that looked like a pretty good investment for election night – I am tipping 1 December because I don’t think the polls will get any better for Howard.
Unity mate. Paint the town very moderately red.
I’d be highly surprised if the Greens got more than one Senator elected (Bob Brown must be a shoe-in), for reasons gone over ad nauseum previously (the consensus seems to be that each State expect Tassie will split 3-3). Glen is right to point out that the rise of Rudd Labor has won back a lot of those disaffected Labor voters, partly because they can see a winner. This could prove to be a very polarising election, where the minor parties get squeezed. There will no doubt then be much discussion about the demise of the minnows, though if Rudd does win, there is a pretty good chance of of DD soon after, where the minors could expect to make a bit of a comeback.
Richard Jones (103) – the difference is there are more class traitors in the Labor Right!
Even with the ALP leading in the polls at 55/45 (or thereabouts) there are two issues that will / may affect the ALP campaign that I have not seen mentioned on this blog.
1. The pulp mill – this is not doing the ALP any good, has given the Greens the perfect campaign weapon (the only party unsullied by the sorry saga), and Malcolm Turnbull is starting to wedge Labor over the issue. Whether it is the Geoffrey Cousins issue or not, MT has obviously been allowed the run of the issue by JWH. On the other hand, there can be no escaping that Paul Lennon’s (and hence by association the rest of the ALP) grubby hands are all over what is becoming a major issue. Peter Garrett is all at sea (he was dreadful on Radio National the other morning). The issue may also detach a few ‘doctors wives’ from at least giving the ALP their 2pp (after voting Green first) – and when you see Bob Brown giving the government credit for anything, well…If MT did rule out the pulp mill, pre election, he will have swept the carpet out from under the ALP, possibly kept Bass, possibly picked up Franklin (as Paul Lennon seems on the nose in Tas), and possibly delivered Denison to the Greens (anyone other Duncan Kerr would be worried). And even if, the ALP were included in the decision, it would provoke an almighty barney with the CFMEU. It would probably also deliver Wentworth back to MT, deliver Melbourne to the Greens and destabilise inner city seats (though I would imagine Tanya Plibersek to be safe). And lastly, if the libs were to win, MT would be hero of the moment and probably overtake Costello in the race for the leadership.
2. The Victorian Tattersalls allegations – this has probably got a long way to run, and could get a bit nasty for the state ALP and distract all and sundry during the campaign. Though it is probably better for the ALP that Bracksie has gone (did he know it was coming up now?) – the Libs are probably kicking themselves now that they don’t have a candidate in Albert Park.
Dont start dishing the unity faction people. It is where Mr Rudd comes from. You know, the Labor leader proposing an education revoultion, $2 billion solution to hospitals (with optional whacking stick), forward with fairness IR policy, staged withdrawal from Iraq, set targets to reduce climate change, increased R&D funding, just for starters.
Labor unity faction has taken the pulse of the general electorate, and responded with policies that are based on Labor’s moderate proggressive tradition.
Extremist populism can be left to the Howard’s of this world.
If the ALP win, Peter Garrett should ask for another portfolio rather than go to environment. At the moment, the hardheads have got him just where they need him, and he will be just held up to ridicule – it is starting to happen now – he’s smart, he could be given another portfolio.
Maybe Howard will be encourage by this poll and follow this advice:
PRESSURE is mounting on Prime Minister John Howard to go to the polls earlier than expected and call an October 20 election.
Key inflation figures that could damage the Federal Government’s re-election chances are to be released the following week.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22336778-953,00.html
“The Victorian Tattersalls allegations ” I have never heard of this.
————————–
On another subject. The Business Coalition are running their anti-Labor IR adds using quotes from newspapers, from business on business effects.
I wonder if Labor will now do the same, using quotes from BHP who said they can live with Labor’s IR policy.
Agree it was probably a mistake to give Garrett Environment. Turnbull (or was it Howard?) have been clever in extending the pulp mill decision date by 6 weeks. There is some chance that that will put it during the election campaign and ‘caretaker’ government period. Most commentators have not woken up to the fact that the decision cannot be further postponed – it is subject to a statutory time limit. The caretaker conventions will then require that the Minister consults the Opposition over the decision – in other words Labor will be compelled to agree with Turnbull’s decision. Turnbull/Howard have effectively cancelled the issue in Govt-Opposition terms and possibly created havoc with Green preferences as you (blackburnpseph) suggest.
blackburnpseph Says:If the ALP win, Peter Garrett should ask for another portfolio rather than go to environment.
I reckon aboriginal affairs. I really think that environmental issues are starting to become business issues, and I’m not sure that he has the experience to deal with the stakeholders. Unfortunately, aboriginal affairs is so far behind where it needs to be, that there needs to be a constant high-profile reminder of how important it is.
I’d like to be a fly on the wall when Bush meets Rudd…im sure it will be intense especially since Bush will have on hand General Petraeus’s report on hand…and much evidence available points to the ’surge’ having a positive impact…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22337285-601,00.html
Surge working: top US general
“General Petraeus told The Australian during a face-to-face interview at his Baghdad headquarters there had been a 75 per cent reduction in religious and ethnic killings since last year, a doubling in the seizure of insurgents’ weapons caches between January and August, a rise in the number of al-Qa’ida “kills and captures” and a fall in the number of coalition deaths from roadside bombings.”
Rudd would be careful to avoid talking much about Iraq least he repeat one of Mark Latham’s mistakes and vow to bring the troops home by Christmas…i wonder whether Rudd will redeploy the troops in Iraq to Afghanistan especially considering the Dutch are getting cold feet atm.
Any Green who preferences Coalition over Labor on this one issue would be stupid. The Coalition has done absolutely nothing for the environment in the 11 years it’s been in power. If they decide to do something now, it’ll be clear to the vast majority of Greenies that it’s only due to the election, just as it was clear to 52% that the NT intervention was only due to the election. Morgan trends have 80% of Greens prefs going to Labor; I don’t expect that to change at all.
A reminder also that this poll was done over TWO weekends; in one weekend, Newspoll had Labor up 55-45; in the 2nd, Galaxy had Labor up 57-43. In the same period, Morgan ph had Labor up 60-40. The real situation is probably about 57-43 Labor.
BigPictureGuy(81) – looks like I agree with you again. I well remember Labor’s attack ads back in the 1980’s. Crude, but effective. You have to make people sit up and take notice. Some nice polite, “vote for us please” ad is never going to be as effective as using a good old scare campaign, within reason.
Nice poll, much closer to the real state of affairs. After factoring in the usual Morgan madness, we have the Government on 46% and Labor on 41%, which is about what the election result will be. Krudd has hobbled himself with his ridiculous IR policy.
SK, where the H have you been since Monday????
Hello everyone, as “Stephen Phelps” I’ve been writing articles as about the Aussie Election on the UK’s politicalbetting.com site.
I’m as convinced as everyone here that Rudd is a shoe-in, but there’s one thing which I’m also convinced is going to happen that I haven’t factored in. A financial hiccup of major proportions, in October. Most big crashes occur in October, and the shenanigans of a couple of weeks ago are just a forewarning of what’s to come, in my opinion. The reasons are obvious – central bankers around the world are shit-scared, the US is heading for a recession, valuations in China are absurdly high and getting higher every day, etc etc. The implications of a sudden stop to the Chinese economic growth for the free-wheeling Aussie economy, which has gotten close to being dependent on high mineral prices, are big, to say the least. The Aussie dollar could easily take a massive and very sudden hit, much more than it did 10 or 12 days ago.
So what would be the electorate’s reaction? There are several possible scenarios, but if, for the sake of argument, the election had been announced for 3rd November and the biggest hit to the markets took place in the middle of October, then that would give everyone 2-3 weeks to think about it and it would almost certainly become the major issue. If Rudd isn’t preparing for such an eventuality, then he bloody well should be.
Any ideas?
libs have made a few mistakes sure but after 11 yrs u tell me one organisation that hasent.I agree workchoices went to far but the intent of a fair and flexibale workplace was there.Iraq could have been handled better but then again who for sure knew what that would turn out to be and as such i agree with with the better to be safe than sorry thesis.
just a few thoughts
Latham played silly buggers with the greens last election and lost two seats in Tassie.
The greens are irrelevant in the lower house, when will they realise this.
If the US Fed cut rates to maintain liquidity this will make our rates high in relative terms. Higher relative rates increase the value of the dollar and decrease the cost of imports (including petrol prices). Of course our reserve bank could respond and cut rates.
Conversation between George Bush and Kevin Rudd:
Kevin Rudd: ” I know you want to talk about Iraq”
George Bush: ” Hell boy, who gives a shite about Iraq. Tell me about the titties on those strippers at Scores. Were they big ones? “
That’s a very interesting scenario you make SP (126). Conventional wisdom suggests that the conservatives might benefit from a finacial shock, especially if it came so close to the election. I think Labor has been preparing for this, by talking about what happens after the commodities boom ends etc, but it would be a helluva thing to have to respond to in an election campaign.
Another reason why Howard should go earlier!
Paul K: George W knows a thing or two about strip clubs, alcohol, cocaine etc.
Are we all getting pollitis? Every new poll that comes out is analysed to the nth degree. Who on earth really knows what will happen on election day?
SP @ 126: That will be right. Labor gets into power whenever there is a recession in the air. Costello’s hot air about 15 years of Chinese unabated resources demand will look as short-sighted as it is. The Rudd message from the begining was looking beyond the mining boom will have more impact.
If it something like this happens in October then it will depend how long it takes to flow through to the economy. How fast would the hypothetical dominos fall USA – China – Aust?
I think it would be bad for the Govt who have squandered the decade of surpluses and relied on the resources industry – a message Labor will find easy to push is that of lazy and irresponsible govt.
AND if it is a real recession would you want to win power anyway? Wouldn’t take long before people worked out why the need unions.
Hmmm, I’d recommend some people here, Steven K. in particular, should have a look at Aristotle’s analyses, particularly the one on campaign fog. Also recommend Possum Comitatus for some very interesting analysis of possible sleepers which could cause the Coalition some heartburn. Kina, Bracks has just been on Stateline (local Vic. ABC version of 7.30 Report) giving very credible version of allegations raised about his giving Tatts the nod for further gaming licences. There have been rumblings around in Vic politics about whether this may have contributed to his decision to exit stage left. O.K. I know I’m biased but he certainly sounded and looked very believable (also have built in sceptic). Personally, I hope that Labor everywhere resist the temptation to dish the dirt and offer something more advanced than the mongrel behaviour excessively, repeatedly and hopefully, terminally contributory to their own demise as the LNP. Promise not to utter another adverb.
No body cares about Bracks. It’s a storm in a teacup except for the Journos who continue to bore us silly with the details.
1/ The election will be won and lost outside Victoria. Why would anybody think Bracks will upset seats outside of Victoria.
2/ No one in Victoria cares. The only things people in Melbourne are talking about is the Horse Flu and drugs in the AFL.
Bracks is another Sunrise or Brian Burke. No one cares.
I wonder what effect Bush conducting a bombing campaign on Iran would have?
Kina,
Love to debate it but we’ve been banned by William from discussing Iran or other foreign entanglements unless they directly involve Australia.
Why do people cite fluctuations in betting at one agency in an individual seat? (Eg Bennelong above?) Wouldn’t one decent size wager shift the odds?
ps – bets off (the nags) = bets on (the election)?
Is there an equivalent of equine virus for politicians?
Bush will not bomb Iran.. it is a game of bluff, if anyone does it will be Israel. On Bracks… I agree with you Paul K.. who cares.. nonetheless if Bracks has nothing to hide why doesn’t he front the inquiry.. smacks of arrogance and this is worry because that is why Kennett was defeated.
Or they share that government’s contempt for trust, integrity and democracy.
General Petraeus was hand-picked for his Bush-loyalty and his report is being written by the White House. It would be astonishing if he and it did not support the surge.
Paul K, Kina’s line of inquiry is fine: it is related directly to the election campaign.
Steven @ 124
Welcome back, Glen
True, by going to the electorate with WorkChoicesLite, Rudd gives people much less incentive to vote for him.
People who are relaxed and comfortable, except for WorkChoices anxiety might drift back to Howard.
anxiety, might
The election wont be won in Victoria because we already have a majority of A.L.P seats, so there’s not much more to add, 2-3 at the most.
To the person who suggested that Melbourne was only interested in AFL, I remind you that Melbourne is the centre of Australian Civilization, and the only European city on the continent.
John you are right… why did Labor change its’ IR policy whilst it was doing well in polls?
And where have the union ads gone… its alright to have business ads all over our screens but the union ads have dissappeared and why?
The unions will keep their powder dry for the campaign proper
If labour make the following gains;-
Bonner
Macquarie
Kingston
Wakefield
McMillan
Stirling
Hasluck
Bass
Braddon
and
Moreoin
Lindsay
Makin
Solomon
Eden Monaro
How long can Windsor & Katter support a minority government
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