‘Twas the night before Newspoll, and a new open thread was stirring.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
The night before Newspoll: episode two
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345 Comments
I think it will be around the same as galaxy.
57-43 ALP
ALP Primary 48
Lib Primary 40
William, I’ve put out my stocking and I hope Santa brings me a healthy Labor lead in the next Newspoll.
Come on Ruddslide.
56-44, and panic stations for the government.
55-45
same old same old
Bah, with the Morgan Poll showing a significant drop in Labor’s primary i wouldn’t be surprised if Labor’s vote continued its fall south past 55-45 to a margin of 54-46…
A 2PP Labor vote at 57-43 is uber inflated and cannot be taken seriously if Labor’s vote is below 55-45 and with APEC as a plus for Howard he may close the gap further yet…
54 ALP
46 Coalition
I’d be happy with 2PP 55-45. I want Labor to be still on their toes. I haven’t forgotten that gentleman on Insight re Bennelong who said that he’d vote for the Libs if there was an indication of a Ruddslide.
I doubt there will be much change, but I’m usually wrong. I think things will drift along like this until the campaign proper begins. Then we will see who gets the break.
Baz
I liked your contributions on the Public Service debate over on the Lindsay thread, some things of interest:
1. I certainly agree that the status quo will be maintained, there is too much at stake for senior bureaucrats to suggest the scalpel..
2. Agreed about the future fund. Not a vote winning exercise. In truth, Peter Costello probably thinks it is a good idea (and it is) but it has the convenient effect of making Commonwealth public servants feel secure about retirement. I take your point about voting intention, it probably would not make it to the list (consciously at least).
Like many other Australians, whilst I certainly agree that some public servants are very hardworking (some of my friends are some), some have the rightly deserved reputation as economic leeches (some of my friends are some!:)).
Is there a reason why companies salivate over “government contracts” for tender? Time delays, inefficiency, duplication and paying over market price is par for the course when dealing with an Australian bureaucracy.
I brought a BMW back from Hong Kong and dealt with no fewer than 6 Commonwealth Departments. The car cost me less than $10000 in HK but I paid over $5500 in government charges, customs fees, administrative costs and even GST on the customs due!! (so much for not double dipping for GST.. the response from Customs “yeah, yeah whatever, see your MP about it, is that all?”).
Imagine what this country could do with a leaner, more efficient bureaucracy?
Is Newspoll due out tomorrow morning or tomorrow night?
The polls were interesting last week with Galaxy and Morgan showing large movements in opposite directions that effectively cancelled each other out in the poll average.
Newspoll on Tuesday will be very interesting to see if there has been, in fact, any real change from the steady 45-55 TPP.
What is equally interesting is how the News (Corp) media seems to have realised that an ALP victory is now almost inevitable. The Australian last week published a scathing editorial of the Government’s poor record of reform. We have not seen Shanahan raising his head lately, when through July he was leading the pro-Howard charge in the Oz. Even Piers Ackerman on Insiders this morning stated flatly the the ALP would win.
Whether this aceptance by News of the ALP’s supremacy will filter through to their pollster, and affect the way they ask their questions, and therefore the result of the poll will be interesting to see.
Tomorrow night – Lateline will probably have the results as part of their first story.
Wasn’t the last Newspoll released on a Monday morning?
Maybe I’m getting myself confused.
I can’t see much change from last time. We are in a holding patten until the election is announced in a few weeks.
Paul K
You speak from experience then. I take your point about City-state vs. Country-Continent however:
a) Our payroll spend (as you aptly referenced) is far greater than any gross infrastructure spend and citizen level delivery cost, so the beast is still really bloated.
b) We will never actually have enough infrastructure like roads. We can’t afford them. The space required for our traffic to move well cannot be afforded by the people that use them in Australia.
Per Capita Road Cost= Space required per vehicle (at average commuting speed) X cost of building road
Our road build costs are too high (Labour is too high, bureaucracy too inefficient) and our space required too large (mostly single occupant cars, too long a commute).
In Australia, the sad reality is that we will always have log-jams and over time these will get worse.
We would do far better to bite the bullet with subways in our cities and put severe restrictions on car use (high regos, limited parks etc). Your experience in HK, like mine, no doubt left you awestruck with the efficiency of the MTR in HK?
With a leaner public service, we could pay less for paper and more for rail perhaps?
last newspoll came out on Monday night – published in the Tuesday Oz.
When oh when is the next ACN?
Do not understand the nay sayers despite the polls, in threads other, esp if pivoting off comment emanating from certain of the Insiders.
Courage, all!
Michael Kroger looked and sounded so unhappy last week, and a little before in Fran Kelly’s Friday round up managed to insert the must be outdated by now ‘inexperienced Labor’ line. Not that the intent of these interviews are to provide a platform for party partisan Ra Ra.
The ever cautious Rod Cameron is closer to thinking it could be so. Seem to remember he thought otherwise not so long ago.
I remain confident of a 57% Newspoll Tpp Labor result.
JWH is doing himself no favours with APEC/Bush. Old strategy, been there. Esp in light of Lowy Institute report.
I think it will be 55 / 45. I’ll start getting nervous if the margin is less
7PM ABC News has lately been giving hints of the next day’s Newspoll, so it’d be an idea to tune in to Aunty a little earlier. If there’s a swing back to Howard, you can bet it’ll be their lead story.
Next ACN should be tomorrow week (10/9).
Question: Has Channel 7 turned against their former Sunrise pinup boy Kevin Rudd? That was a rather vicious piece from that hack Mark Reilly.
Meanwhile, in other people’s elections, when they don’t like a poll in Greece, they say so:
PASOK criticises opinion poll
Main opposition Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) on Wedensday sharply criticised a most recent opinion poll giving rival New Democracy, the ruling party, a 2-point lead, 35.2 percent to 33.2 percent for PASOK.
PASOK Secretary Nikos Athanassakis said the results appeared “outrageous” and “incomprehensible”. The PASOK cadre also took exception with results showing an almost identical negative opinion of both the ruling party and the main opposition.
The MRB firm, which conducted the poll for a local Athens television station, said that “it was the inalienable right of every political party or citizen not to accept results of an opinion poll. However, they should avoid disputing the professionalism and objectivity of respected polling firms because they disagree with the results”. The firm also referred to “slanderous statements” by the PASOK official.
Carrying on Adam’s theme: Rumours that UK PM Gordon Brown is about to call a snap election, to capitalise on Labor’s 10 point lead in the polls.
I would if I were him. The Tories installed that lightweight Cameron as a sort of ersatz Blair, but now Blair has gone and has taken all his baggage with him, and they are up against a heavyweight in Brown. He will do them.
My prediction for Newspoll
52/48 Headline: The Rodent Strikes Back.
After nearly a year of toying with the prospect of change the Australian people tell John Howard he is still in with a good chance.
This is actually cathartic. If it is 52/48 I wont be feeling so bad.
Adam, I think Brown will wait until next year. You’re correct, he’s an impressive man, and he’s surprised many people over there with his performance so far as PM.
My favourite election: the 1997 UK General Election – how I wish Howard would be swept aside by a similar landslide.
What did Channel 7 do?
Most political pros take the view that you should go when you’re ahead because you never know what might happen next year. If yon wee Cameron is allowed to stew for too long the Tories might axe him and come up with someone better, though goodness knows who that might be. I’m sure the hard-heads will be telling The Broon to “go the noo, laddie.”
William, well done on the so nostalgic heading. Certainly encapsulates the feeling of the times.
But surely, Generic Oracle #9, the Howard Government has had ample opportunity to deal with such inefficiencies? Managed to do heaps in regard to single parent, disabled, wilful unemployed and so on.
Reckon your GST implication is the master key. Why would the Government wish the bureaucrats to recommend reduction in revenue?
‘Imagine what this country could do with a leaner, more efficient bureaucracy’?
Imagine what this country could do without the force fed geese fattened in the various pens paid for those of us who may still be called ‘the taxpayer’. The consultants, the spinners, the lawyers, the public defenders et al.
No need to go on.
Kina if you go to the last thread and read my comment (158) it will give you some idea what the whole channel 7 thing was about. Just a bloody disgrace.
Me visiting my Scots ancestors a few months ago – a very dour lot.
http://www.adam-carr.net/mainphotofolder/carnwath.JPG
Can there ever be another Thatcherite in Britain or has the European Human Rights act etc put paid to that?
Getting this on Australia – will much of Howard’s policies survive a change of goverment, especially if the Greens gain the BOP in the Senate to pressure Labor?
Come on guys. The samples are around 1000, that means one percentage point represents the answer from 10 people. Ten people to represent the views of thousands.
The mathematics say the results are a bit rubbery and so does logic.
Yes, Charles, that’s how opinion polls work – a small number, if randomly chosen, does indeed represent a large number. Shock horror, what will they think of next?
charles, yeah, but it is momentum and pressure, so whether they have an intrinsic truth or not they do have an intrinsic value.
Charles is correct as we all know Tarot Cards and Tea Leaves are far more accurate than a scientifically tested system of sampling opinions.
That Marn Ferson’s a popular chap, isn’t he?
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/batmanbig.shtml
Two words: Des Corcoran.
I doubt that running a story on extra-public servants is going to create fear or any great concern that will stick in anyone’s head more than 2 minutes. There is going to be lots of electioneering noise about fairly soon. Sounds a lame story to me and if thats all they got. Now if they said cut jobs. Even the story ackerman is trying to run is silly and will look like a rolled gold government smear campaign of the lamest kind if they try to go with it.
I’m not sure that Corcoran would have won had he waited. It’s easy in hind sight to say he made a fundamental error but would he have done any better had he waited? We will never know. Gordon Brown may be in a similar position but again if he calls an early election we’ll never know if he would have been better off waiting.
I don’t think the tale of Des Wossname in South Australia is particularly important in the context of the UK. The British seem less concerned when elections are called–I suspect it is because they do not confuse the American system with their own as is wont to happen in our fair land; where there is an air of suspicion about early elections as some form of cheating.
The 1966 general election is a good example of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election%2C_1966
The irony is that while the Americans feared a powerful monarch, they effectively ended up with one through the expansion of Presidential power–an elected emperor, pretty much.
Whereas the British, who HAD a monarch (and obviously still do), effectively turned their king or queen into a well-paid ribbon cutter.
Regarding Brown calling an early election… the News International-stabled “News of the World” states that Brown will hold off on calling an election until 2008. According to their article, there never was any real prospect of holding an Autumn [Northern Hemisphere] election, but Brown wanted to scare the Conservatives [still with a big "c"] by suggesting that he would call one. In addition there is a lot of bad feeling about the Government refusing to allow a referendum on the EU Constitution and this will cost them votes, particularly as some of the larger Trades Unions have come out in favour of a referendum [or plebiscite in Howard-speak].
I don’t know whether I believe this newspaper any longer with its political comment as, not long ago, one of its correspondents – Fraser Nelson – said that Howard was on course for a fifth election win!
If there is an Autumn election in Britain then Labour will likely win.
The Herald Sun provided this interesting link today.
Gee, I might send to everyone I know.
Find out the facts that Mr Howard and his Government don’t want you
to know.
http://howardfacts.com/
I reckon it will remain 55/45 2pp, as this pretty-much represents the popularity flatline the Government’s been on sitting-on since March.
Everyone in the MSM (and a few here) seem to think there will be some movement back toward the coalition during the campaign, but I reckon this is likley wishful thinking.
The people pushing this idea are mostly the same jokers who have been assuring us for the last 6 months that a coalition “bounce” (and the end of Rudd’s honeymoon) was just around this or that corner.
Well, we’ve turned a crapload of these corners in that period and the polls have remained more or less the same.
This suggests to me that, barring the Second Coming of JC and a ringing endorsement of Team Rodent from the Big Guy hisself while walking on water across Sydeny Harbour, the Government’s jig is well-and-truly up.
(the Big Guy hisself while walking on water across Sydeny Harbour)
If He shows up during APEC He’ll be in a sh*t load of trouble with the cops shooting or arresting anything that moves. I can see the headlines. “Bearded terrorist/hippie type in long robes arrested while attempting to attack APEC leaders from Sydney waterside”
I reckon it will be another small step towards the coalition, say .5% to 1%.
As issues get more tightly defined in people’s minds you will see a tightening of the gap. In a 10 second sound grab, the opposition can get the message that it disagrees with an existing policy and gains support. An upcoming election means there is more analysis of their position.
eg
“we think there should be an Australian head of state”
becomes
“we think there should be an Australian head of state elected by a joint siiting of parliament”
The first statement might get 70% support, the second 30%
The punter effect should be of interest.
Looking more and more likely that Aqis was responsible for the equine flu getting loose from the eastern creek centre. Howard has said a retired judge will conduct an inquiry into if this is so.
Any hint that the Howard govt via Aqis was responsible for the flu getting loose will hurt them as Tyrone said.
It is not just the owners trainers and strappers, it is the bookies clerks, attendants, bar staff, tab workers. Plus all the pissed off punters who like a flutter, especially the spring carnival.
The compensation Howard offered is a joke, he gave more money in total to his brothers company to forestall a ASIC investigation.
So aside from upsetting a load of punters Howard has also managed insult the industry, should be some affect on the polls there.
Newspoll Prediction
Labor 54/46 Coalition
Next ACN 10/09/07
Galaxy 24/09/07
Further to the equine flu, this will hurt them.
THE Howard Government was warned repeatedly three years ago that changes to quarantine procedures on imported horses would expose the country to the kind of equine influenza epidemic that has devastated the $8billion industry.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22351517-601,00.html
Looks like Howard will have to increase the compensation, at the momment he is offering $50, fifty dollars, per person, 80,000 people depend on the industry for their livelihood.
Surely Howard hasn’t let his close association with the Exclusive Brethren and Family First affect his views on gambling?, his response to the crisis, the amount of compensation offered is puzzling.
haha Howard to blame for equine flu. Is there anything this man is not responsible for? Next they’ll be tying the outbreak back to WorkChoices.
Greg
Not so much as blaming Howard for everything, unfortunately it is just a sympton of his approach over the years, lazy and unresponsive.
“The Australian Racing Board yesterday produced letters sent to then agriculture minister Warren Truss in 2004 and 2005 confirming its opposition to the quarantine changes, particularly the use of private veterinarians to inspect horses coming into the country.
The letters warned the Government an EI outbreak “would close down racing and other horse events for several months, with catastrophic economic consequences”.
I wonder if Piers knew anything about Tomorrows Newspoll. He was looking awfully subdued, one may even say defeated on the insiders yesterday. 57-43 ALP – although these prediction pretty much change with my mood.
The question is whether the latest Galaxy and Phone Morgan polls were early indicators of a broad flattening of the coalitions slow improvement with the Morgan Face To Face pool being off the mark. Or were Galaxy and Morgan Phone just a couple statistical bobbles that accidently agreed?
I’m inclined to the later view and so most likley it’ll be 55/45 or 55.5/44.5.
Watch ABC News at 7PM – they usually give a hint of the next day’s newspoll.
Woohoo: it’s APEC week in Sydney. I can barely contain my excitement: the wall is up, Bush arrives tomorrow night, can it get any better than this? (note the sarcasm LOL).
On a good note: the Swans kicked Hawthorn’s arse yesterday!
As long as a certain team of drug cheats doesn’t win, I’ll be content.
ALP 52/48 COAL
55/45 which means anywhere from 52/48 to 58/42.
and howard hater – go those eagles who will probably meet those swans next week!
Two words: Des Corcoran.
LOL
Did anyone see the love-fest on KerriAnne?
Howard called Maxine McKew ‘an exercise in celebrity’
(or was it an experiment, forgot already) and managed to slip in a remark about her campaign being union-funded.
55/45 to ALP. That’s where the polls are stuck. Expect half the Libs to lash out and half to get more focussed on their post-politics careers.
BTW, great reactions when out leafleting for Maxine on Sunday. It’s her they are voting for as much as for the ALP or against the government. Howard is gone. And I always preferred Gordon to Tony.
Michael Proud: the Swans have to get over Collingwood first(not a given) before we start talking about any clash with West Coast.
Will APEC be a plus or a negative for Howard? I doubt it’ll win him many votes from inconvenienced Sydneysiders, and Bush is universally despised in Australia, so the Rodent would be advised to steer clear of him when possible.
With a looming ALP landslide in South Australia, and Port Adelaide with a home final, things are looking pretty good …
My prediction: 54.5 to 45.5
“55/45 which means anywhere from 52/48 to 58/42.”
Mr Proud nails it. Some of us are looking to Newspoll to tell us which way the trend is going, after Galaxy and Morgan have been bouncing around. But of course Newspoll may be just as bouncy bouncy. It’s a roller coaster, but mostly a fun one, so far.
The formidable Pru Goward tips Dec 1 for the poll date, fwiw.
Bennelong Resident, I presume Maxine has an army of volunteers. I offered to help a few months back as I speak a smattering of Asian languages, she did respond that she has to be preselected first but haven’t heard from her since. I was involved in the Not Happy John campaign. I think the Asian vote is critical in Bennelong. Rudd needs his son-in-law to help out.
I wonder whether there is any precedent for movements in the betting markets in the days prior to poll data being released (presumably as “insiders” attempt to lock in good odds prior to poll data coming out)?
labor 55 , libs 45
Let’s see, the APEC has landed and 75% of New South Welshpersons think it’s a waste of time & money. Horse flu is galloping across the country upsetting horsey types (predominantly coalition voters?).
Lab 57
Lib 43
My guess following Man of Steel endorsement: Morgan Phone: ALP 57 Lib/Nat 43. Election: ALP 59 Lib/Nat 41.
PMSL. That’s my electorate.
See you have to vote Greens there, otherwise the casual electoral staff wouldn’t earn any money at all…
With the polls still averaging around 55/45 I’d expect newspoll to be in that region as well. But there is a fair range of possibilites.
I think anything higher than 57/43 would set the horses running (wheezing a bit) and could see Howard out of the race at the end of APEC.
56 & 55 to the ALP would be seen as a not much changed result – but with a loud clock ticking away in the background.
54 would have the bookies easing the ALP’s odds a bit.
53 would be greeting with woops of joy from the consevatives and be seen to put the ALP well within striking distance during the campain.
I’m calling the ALP’s primary to drop to the 44 range and a result around 53 for TPP.
Personally i don’t think that the equine flu thing wil help the ALP in any shape or form, nor will it hurt the federal govt.
Arbie Jay #50
Howard was warned by the racing industry about
-Allowing horses into Australia from New Zealand based on their quarantine
-Allowing private vets employed by owners to certify as they may be influenced by their employer.
I have heard no suggestion that the flu came from NZ or that a horse with the flu was released from quarantine because of influence. The only suggestion I have heard is that someone carried the virus with them when they left.
So if the racing industry warned of an outcome but didn’t warn or anticipate the cause, it seems a little unrealistic to expect the government to have.
Howard Hater (55),
“Watch ABC News at 7PM – they usually give a hint of the next day’s newspoll.”
Will do, thanks much for the tip
:):)
“Woohoo: it’s APEC week in Sydney. I can barely contain my excitement: the wall is up, Bush arrives tomorrow night, can it get any better than this? (note the sarcasm LOL).”
I live in the greater Sydney area as well and while I don’t have to get into and out of the CBD for my daily business, I still wish they would just get a life and leave already. We have to get on with the real business, call the bloody election already PLEASE >;-( ……… and on a side note, the walls being put up really do add to the visual beauty of this ciy, what will the first time visitors amongst the APEC crowd think of Sydney when they see that? (my note of sarcasm)
“On a good note: the Swans kicked Hawthorn’s arse yesterday!
As long as a certain team of drug cheats doesn’t win, I’ll be content.”
Oh yes; in spades, hearts, clubs and diamonds
:):). I am a Kangaroos supporter and while we won yesterday, we wouldn’t be in 4th without the Swans help, I am saying my thankyou prayers today 
.
Julie
I presume those , including Bush, who call Howard ‘Man of Steel’ have no knowledge of Russian or Russian History. The irony is wonderful.
Nor should 53 be accepted with sighs of angst from ALP barrackers. Most informed (meaning non-wishful thinking) bloggers say Mr. Rudd will win the campaign.
Yikes, I could have proof read my last post. I can only plead crying baby at 3:00 AM.
I meant to go on to say….
If it’s 57/43 (i.e. agrees with Galaxy) expect some serious hand wringing in Government circles. Should be fun. And no, the man of steel endorsement won’t help at all.
Oh, and as for aspirant teams from Sydney and Perth (artificially assisted or not) meeting the Geebungs at the G in September won’t be fun. Those guys are on fire.
Yes, its interesting that a media frame has emerged – with very little historical evidence to support it – that
a. The 2PP inevitably narrows during a campaign
b. Howard is a good campaigner
In the case of this election, some of the crazy big 2PP numbers will drop off, yes, but thats a no-brainer, and a separate issue to whether the polls will close in a meaningful way through the campaign.
Frankly, most of the poll action lately is a “will I/ wont I” from Green/ ALP first pref waverers.
I’ll go with 56/44, I just received my interest rate increase in mail, so residula anger may still be there.
I guess 55:45; but on the public service and delivery bashing above I have to add my two euros worth. You let me pick a team of public servants and you pick a team from big business and I’ll bet on the public service team every time.
There are a number of problems with the public service all of which cost more money to fix, and quite frankly anyone who thinks you can reduce public spending funding and increase service to the public needs to go out a by a massive dose of realilty somewhere.
If you think the private sector already does the business of government better than government there is no hope for you at all, don’t bother with reality you like your little CCI / BCA world of disinformation too much to risk shocking yourself with reality.
1. Public service doesn’t have, and arguably shouldn’t have, the flexibility, the freedom of mateships and deals round the bar. Given as an assumption that government shouldn’t do shoddy round the bar deals, then flexibility is going to cost you more, as does being able to account for the public money.
2. Despite being ‘captured’ by the union movement state labor governments (and I assume the Feds, but I don’t know much about the Feds) don’t pay enough to keep all but a few of the most talented staff. Most find they can earn massively more in the market. Most go earn it. The flip side is you get a few really good guys staying, you get everyone the market wont pickup staying, so in the recruitment merry-go-round unlike most private enterprise you are going to have to keep you dud choices and are almost certain to lose your good choices.
I could go forever but anyone talking of less money into the public sector needs to be talking about services that are currently provided grinding to a halt. The myth of ‘less money’ ‘more service’ is just that a myth.
Now don’t get me wrong I’m not saying everything is perfect, far far from it, but I get to spend a lot of my time wandering through the accounts and staff of predominantly private enterprise, and I get to see inside some government and they are not that different; once you take point 1 and 2 above into account.
56/44, Rudd’s hospital and work choices policies he’s bought out since the last newspoll have to be a plus.
Im loving APEC. Its extraordinary how out of touch with voters Howard has become. It’s as though he *actually* believes the following will play well with Australian voters:
- Climate policies without targets. Bahaa!!
- Piccies with global loser and dill GWB. Pffft!
- Sydney harbour fireworks show for visiting dignitaries which excludes the public. (Hi John, we’re called “Australia”, have we met?)
No wonder he’s desperate to focus attention on these allegedly violent protesters.
Lefty E, I’m not sure APEC such a great thing for Howard.
In the last election campain Howard used evently like sending off troops and the Embassy bombing to suck the oxygen out of Latham’s campain and it worked well.
But this time the dynamics are different. Howard is a long way behind and simply occupying the stage is not enough.
This could make Howard go on October 20 to avoid CPI release on October 24.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/inflation-rise-rings-rates-alarm/2007/09/03/1188671836013.html
“Im loving APEC.”
No one living outside of Sydney is going to care about Sydney residents problems with APEC created traffic jams, etc.
The thing about APEC is that it has the potential to be an overall positive for the government. They’ll be able to control the news cycle with all sorts of announcements about how they intend to solve the problems of the world and dominate the nightly news shows with lots of photo opps. The problem for the government is that any high they get from APEC will be small and probably only temporary. Their challenge will be to cement the positive vibes into real votes. The other problem for the government is that it will also give Rudd an opportunity, especially when he meets with Bush.
Expect Howard to announce the election as soon as APEC is over while the eyes of the world’s media are still here.
As many other people have commented previously, I think it is a consequence of the commentariat “fighting the last election”.
Jasmine
I don’t believe I mentioned private enterprise in the public servant service delivery debate. Actually, my direct comparison was other bureaucrats overseas in places like Hong Kong and Singapore, where I have been.
Unless you have a system where you can quantify productivity and delivery, it is hard to compare the public and private sectors. Indeed the private sectors might also work better overseas. However, in the private sector, if you are atrocious, eventually it will show on the bottom line and your company as it presently is, will cease to exist. This is patently not true for the public service and is a key point of difference.
The public service exists as an entity on its own, independent of the ruling government of the day and the comments here are true, it has grown, not shrunk under Howard. Compared to our tax revenue as a proportion of GDP we spend more than 90% of other countries on the planet on our bureaucracy, though are down in the 20s & 30s (depending on the survey) on quality of life reviews. Thus our big tax take does not represent value for the citizen dollar.
No one has the appropriate anatomy, however, to take the status quo on. We could have roads, rail and half-decent broadband with the same tax take but we have committees, reviews, submissions and donuts for the coffee breaks.
Come on an election is like the olymipics for political and senior type reporters, it has to be close for them to get there time in the spotlight. If Rudd was polling 90 2 pp they’d still be talking surprise close elections.
I think the Morgan F2F poll was out; there weren’t enough people sampled, and the Labor “expect to win” percent decreased too much. With Galaxy saying 57-43 and Morgan ph saying 60-40, I think Newspoll will be around 57-43.
Sorry GO, I was trying to be impersonal and generalise the debate so it is possible you said none of the things I tackled at all.
I’m not sure about your bottom line analysis, that is I’m remained convinced there are people in private enterprise who are complete rubbish but who survive through one mechanism or the other. Networks keep a lot of rubbish people going. Neither economically efficient, nor necessary reflected in the bottom line. Equally some people survive in the public sector who shouldn’t, but the public sector also has some good mechanisms to get these people out of the way of good delivery of key services. So if you find your local government has a bizzare project taking up the time of one of its staff, odds are this project is where they are hiding the dead wood. Probably have the word ’strategic’ in the job title.
I couldn’t comment on the Feds with the same degree of certainty as State and Local. You are right about the tax take, but I question how much of that is going to real public sector; you’d have to be neck deep in the budget papers and lots of inside inf on what the departments were doing to even have a clue.
You raise, indirectly and perhaps without realising it, one of my pet hates / gripes. ‘Grants’ and not to the States, grants to everyone else. They are stupid, they take up huge amounts of everyones time and are based either on marginal electorate politics or a failed assumption that community groups with no obvious income stream and limited resources will be delivering services forever ’sustainably’ off a one-off $250,000 grant. It is really inefficient silly stuff.
Picking these polls is like interpreting entrails and (as we all know) about as reliable! The curious thing is that the betting stats are showing a steady decline in coalition hopes, while Bryan Palmer’s aggregate:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
..is showing that the coalition might squeeze out a victory if the election were in early December.
Someone, presumably, is wrong. I wonder whom? My money, however, would be with the betting… not the dodgy polls!
#65 – Lindsay Voter
Call Maxine’s office. Things are a bit chaotic with the volunteers, who do include the Asian community.
Also, try this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP0S4KmiWCU
Also also, I noticed the in-laws kept out of the publicity shots for Rudd’s daughter’s wedding. Was the husband even in the pictures ???
Kina, re the HowardFacts link, you might have noticed the authorising body at the bottom. That said, the approach seems to work better than having the whole lot carrying dirty great big ALP logos – and it allows separation between the negative campaign (HowardFacts) and the positive one (Kevin07), with the raw policy (most likely to be sited at ALP.org.au) allowed to sit by itself and without distraction.
As for those Batman figures (I’m also a resident of die Darebiner Demokratischerepublik), the complete sweep of 60%+ ALP 2PP booths masks some rather substantial swings towards the Libs in 2004. The largest swing to the blue occurred at the Ruthven booth – although it’s still debated whether that was down to the campaign itself or the presence of Peter ‘Tollroads’ Batchelor on the line during the busiest part of the day.
I have lived in Singapore and I think the whole public sector comparison misses the point – Asian countries have different expectations of indivduals/govenments than us. Families in Singapore provide many more services that in Australia the govt is expected to provide – even in Italy hospital patients are provided with food by family members! Welfare/disability services are non-existent because once again, family members would be expected to provide this. Ex-pats are largely shielded from this aspect of the country.
Hospitals/doctors/drugs are much more expensive than here. The govt, far from being “small”, regulates most aspects of people’s lives in a form of “social engineering” eg only married couples or people over a certain age are allowed to buy govt flats (private flats are very expensive.)
This type of system just would not work here in Australia. We would resent that amount of government interference, and we simply don’t have the family network to provide services that the govt currently provides.
Thanks Bennelong Resident for your youtube link. No, yet to see pictures of Rudd’s son-in-law in the MSM. I had to google to see if he just had an Asian surname or did look Asian.
looks like an october election, with the latest interest rates forcasts, the rodent wont want to be in election mode when the CPI data comes out on oct 24th, he was on telly this morning lauding Bush as an intelligent likeable man and waffling on about how much he likes his friend, that will go down like a lead balloon, we all know how much he likes him– enough to get us into an illigal invasion,Akerman looked decidedly sick on The Outsiders yesterday so he’s not getting any joy from the Morgan poll.
oh btw, i heard a rumour of a confected terrorist scare at APEC to help the rodent along– has anyone else heard it? that was tried re the Indonesia warning scare two months ago and fell flat, then Howard thought he had his Tampa with Haneef, we live in interesting times.
AK
Great point about families and I am aware of it. Indeed, we didn’t have a cloistered expat view, because at one stage our son was in a local hospital and we did feed him.
However, Australia is (thankfully) a melting pot of cultures, and many of us are immigrants with this same attitude. In any case, at no point have I really been talking about declining service provisions. Most Australians that I talk to are oblivious to the amount we don’t get at the coal face for our tax dollar.
When we have state health systems that run admin:hospital staff ratios of 2:1 (this includes management and bureaucrats), something is wrong. Any business run this way would have failed long ago.
There is little reason why we could have the same service provision with far less ambiguity, duplication, overlap and delays in government at most levels and achieve the same outcomes.
If we could swallow this pill, once and for all, we could be competitive in Asia without having to go the barbaric avenue of Work Choices.
Howard has fought five elections. I don’t really recall how he campaigned against Hawke in 1987, but his campaign was in any case wrecked by the Joh for Canberra circus, which resulted from a failure of leadership by him and his close ally Sinclair. In 1996 he made himself a small target and lied through his teeth (GST? Never ever!) and won the campaign since the public was sick of Keating and all he had to do was look modest and safe, which he did. In 1998 and 2001, he was comprehensively outcampaigned by Beazley. In 1998 he almost lost, quite an achievement when you’re a first term PM with a huge majority, and in 2001 he was saved from certain defeat only by 9/11 and Tampa. Even then Beazley brought Labor back from a rout to a respectable loss in a few weeks. In 2004 Howard certainly won the campaign against L*th*m, but then, who wouldn’t have? Even with L*th*m at the helm, Labor got 47% of the 2PV, showing that a lot of people voted Liberal only with reluctance. I have great confidence that if Labor goes into the campaign proper with anything better than 50%, Rudd will win the campaign and thus the election. And I think Howard will be very lucky if the Labor 2PV is below 52% at the start of the campaign – it will probably still be around 54%.
Inflation still rising and interest rates tipped to rise sooner than later. Points to a short election campaign called soon to try to beat the expected rises.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22352907-462,00.html
Tom.
i saw wedding pics of Rudd’s son in law so i certainly dont think he’s being hidden, most of the wedding pics were of Rudd leading his daughter in to the church and the happy couple coming out, i cant remember seeing one of Therese at all, like the groom’s parents i would bet she was there though lol.
I saw Robert Manne, Judith Brett and Peter van Onselen at the Melbourne Writers’ festival on the weekend. Brett and van Onselen are convinced that Howard is going to lose, mainly because of Workchoices. van Onselen is predicting huge ructions in the Liberal Party afterwards as the wets finally payout on Howard and co.
I’m beginning to feel the love.
John Hewson? Alexander Downer? Tony Abbott?
Oh sorry, that was a rhetorical question…
Adam’s points are well made. Rudd has shown all year that when the attention is on him (even if it is negative), he performs well. Plenty of people I think are incorrectly assuming that Howard will come back during the campaign. Latham’s campaign was poor, particularly the complete failure to tackle the interest rate scare campaign
I think Rudd is going to win the campaign. Howard really needs to be in front at the start of the campaign. I think the only question will be, can Rudd win enough of the seats that count?
GO,
I see your point about bloated bureaucracy. It’s the same thing in unis; staff-student ratio blowing out at the same time that central admin is growing like the plague.
Anyway back to newpoll, my prediction is 54/46 – status quo.
I’d like to see some stats and facts on ‘Bloated Bureaucracy’ because it is an often repeated and challenged mantra. Again it is more of a bumper sticker but lets be frank only an a fool would expect ‘public service’ without a ‘public service’.
[Inflation still rising and interest rates tipped to rise sooner than later. Points to a short election campaign called soon to try to beat the expected rises.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22352907-462,00.html
I think this just rules out middle or late November. He could still call the election in late September, for an election day on November 3rd. Or the late option would be December 1st. I doubt he would want to go November 10th, 17th or 24th. The RBA announces their decisions on November 7th and December 5th.
http://www.rba.gov.au/EventsDiary/calendar_2007.html
Maybe this is all wrong, maybe Howard has research showing that interest rate rises help the government, making November 10 the perfect date.
With regard to polls, I wonder why the approach has not been taken that a lot of consumer groups take… having registered online surveys?
I do realise that you would not get a true representative sample, but there are debates that you do anyway. In addition, survey respondents get nothing for a FTF or Phone poll, so perhaps the answers aren’t as well thought out.
Instead, if, say a company like Morgan offered Australians to register (with their names and addresses like you do for an online marketing company, to avoid poll-stacking) and paid people $1-2 a poll, you could get results immediately, with a huge volume, at presumably lower cost.
You also tend to get more honest and thoughtful feedback online than over the phone (when your “down time” is being interrupted by a pesky pollster!!) Online surveys with invitations to mailboxes also give you some flexibility about when you reply to them.
Pollsters could also construct “representative invitations” for massive samples, based on pre-existing knowledge of demographics. You could even assess voter change over time.. how I feel now as opposed to last month.. the kind of longitudinal stuff you never get with standard polls.
Any thoughts?
I agree with jasmine (102).
G.O,
That’s what YouGov is planning to do very soon
Adam,
Couldn’t agree more.
It’s nonsense (and arrogant) to assume that the tories will automatically take votes off the ALP durng the election just because thats what happened last time. The tories have thrown the kitchen sink at him so far and nothing has worked, all Rudd has to do is appear positive, reassuring and keep repeating that line that ‘ the buck stops here’ (which is the most apparent difference in minds of the average punter to ‘everyone elses fault’ Howard) and he’s home and hosed.
Yes, there’s really no reason to suspect much will shift in the campaign. If anything, it will tend to focus voters’ minds – but in ways that reinforce current trends.
“Current trends” as far as I read them are:
- very high level of ‘decided’ swingers compared to previous elections
- major issues of IR, economy, climate change, health not working for government
- Libs having a hell of a time getting their primary above 41%.
- ALP primary on a solid base of 45+
- Tussle between ALP and Green for 2-3% primary above that
- Another 3-4% up for grabs betweren the majors. But the current ALP 2PP lead *could* even survive the (unlikely) loss of every vote in that category.
Paul Sheehan immediately after the 2004 election.
“On December 22, 2004 Howard will overhaul Bob Hawke as the second-longest serving leader in Australian history. This will leave him with only one achievable landmark: March 11, 2006, his 10th anniversary as PM. Later that year Howard, at age 66, will step aside for Costello, who will be only 49. Costello is already the most formidable performer in Federal Parliament….
As for Howard, he can begin to think about his legacy, which means he will be busier than ever. He has, at most, 24 months left. And there are clouds over his stewardship. Because of Howard’s adventure in Iraq, Australians are at greater risk of being murdered by medieval Islamic jihadists. And because he has not rung the alarm bell on Australia’s deteriorating landscape, if the wasting away continues to accelerate, broaden and worsen, Howard risks being seen, over time, as a leader who was inert at a time of an unfolding national crisis.”
And this from Alan Anderson (Ruddock advisor, amongst other, far right, things)
“A second crucial reform area is industrial relations. This is no time for half-measures. It is a once in a generation opportunity to reshape the nation’s legislative framework. A truly courageous Howard Government would abolish the antiquated award system and replace it with a simple minimum wage. What business is it of government to assess the economic value of different skills and trades? It would be consistent with Coalition principles – and Family First principles – to leave that decision to the market while maintaining a safety net based on people’s needs, not on an arbitrary government assessment of the “value” of their labour.”
They are so prescient, these commentators.
cheers, Alan H
Jasmine,
I agree with you on the public service. I don’t want to hijack this thread completely, so I will be brief. The Australian keeps repeating the mantra that the Labor states have squandered the GST rivers of gold on higher public sector wages because they are controlled by the unions. It has refused to publish my letters containing specific evidence to demolish this absurd claim. A teacher at the top of the scale in Victoria is paid $31,000 pa less relative to average male ordinary time earnings than in 1975. There are almost 2,000 fewer secondary teachers under Labor than were provided by Lindsay Thompson’s 1981 Liberal Government staffing ratio. Consequently, teaching loads and class sizes are higher. The government has comprehensively defeated teachers in the last two rounds of EBA negotiations.
Generic Oracle,
I read often of vague comments about how many administrators there are compared with front-line staff, but I suspect they are needed. Lots of administrators were cut out of the education department by both the Kennett and Bracks Governments, but all that has happened is that the work they used to do is no longer done at all or it has been transferred to the front-line staff – principals and teachers – in schools. This topic deserves a book, but I won’t get around to writing it till next year.
i took part in a phone poll a few weeks ago, i must admit i gave the first thing that came to mind, i’ve had heaps of angst over work choices because of it’s effect on my grandies, BUT not being given choices {i would have chosed WC’s if i had been} i said the first thing that popped into my head when asked what i considered important, the other questions were just factual ones, like who i voted for in 1994, who i’m voting for this time, is there a chance i would change my mind and how old i was, actually i nearly hung up in the beginning thinking it was one of those pesky ads, when i first answered the phone a tinny robotic voice told me there was an important announcement followed by a blast of music and THEN the questioner, surely they could do better than that!
This debate re the “bloated bureaucracy” is so old fashioned and politically counterproductive for the right wingers. Peter Debnam tried this tactic and was soundly beaten.
The voters aren’t stupid, if any conservative mentions the phrase “bloated bureaucracy” they know it’s code for slashing even more govt services, when the voters want more from govt not less.
Adam I strongly disagree with your comment at 95. On line 8 I would have had Tampa before 9/11.
I think Rudd will win the debate easily as well.
Newspoll 56/44.
Also, Hugh Mackay on the Monday after the election:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/10/1097346697099.html?from=storylhs
I agree that the assumption that the Coservatives will improve over the campain is questionable.
Over the past three months the govt has run a huge advertising campain (at tax payer expense) and this has had a surprisingly modest effect – particularily given the ALP have barely spent a dollar on advertising over the same period.
Once the campain start the Govt free adverting has to stop and the ALP’s campain will start.
Also, I think Rudd will campain well and is essentially just a lot more, reasoned, reasonable and likable than Howard.
I think the election is a long way from over but automatic assumption that it will tighten from here may not be correct. The largest ever ALP vote could be on the way – it’s there for the taking in the campain.
The government will go negative like the Latham L plate campaign. But it seems most people think Rudd will go OK as P.M., so it will just be seen as negative and carping, when the government should be outlining what they intend to do in the next term. The trouble is they’ve already privatised Tel$tra, so they can’t talk about that.
Hey Oakshot, I presume you mean Soviet history. . . Georgian Djugashvilii aka ‘Stalin’ ?
I have to draw your attention to Alan Ramsey’s thoughts on the election outcome. Ramsey is the Sydney Morning Herald political commentator he writes insightful and thought provoking columns and really knows his history. His final words in his column on Saturday were: “Kevin Rudd will be Prime Minister by Christmas. Bet on it!”
Ramsey said the same about Latham.
Election campaigns (IMO) are just about reinforcing the public perception that already exists. For example in 2004 both the ALP and Coalition campaigns seemed to complement each other perfectly – The Coalition ran ads saying Latham and labor can’t be trusted on the economy, Latham is ‘untried’ ‘untested’ ‘not ready’ ‘makes policy on the run’. At the same time Latham was doing exactly what the Coaliton wanted him to do which was to ‘make policy on the run’ – thus reinforcing the already held perception.
What is the public perception in 2007? ‘Time for a change’, ‘Howard is out of touch’ ‘Generational change’ – all Labor has to do is reinforce this perception and the result may already be a forgone conclusion.
Having said this I have just eaten chocolate, so my elevated serotonin could be giving me an inflated sense of optimism.
It seems Kath & Kim have deumped on Howard re Workchoices.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfYFPZirMvc
First Mcleods Daughters, now this – oh those Marxist, commo TV Writers
KATH: “Oh bloody Howard! I’d like to take away his toot breaks and see how he feels in his jolly lower house.”
Ha ha
Now will the coalition make the same mistake and complain about it – thereby ensuring it gets maximum air time.
simonr says at post 101:
“I saw Robert Manne, Judith Brett and Peter van Onselen at the Melbourne Writers’ festival on the weekend. Brett and van Onselen are convinced that Howard is going to lose, mainly because of Workchoices. van Onselen is predicting huge ructions in the Liberal Party afterwards as the wets finally payout on Howard and co.
I’m beginning to feel the love.”
While I’d like to think that the Libs will do a bit of deep soul searching after the fall and think about who they are and what they stand for, I somehow doubt that this will take place in the short to medium term.
Look at the State Liberals: A bigger bunch of unelectable wackos and religious nut jobs would be harder to find.
They should have romped it-in in the last NSW and Qld elections, but failed miserably. Why?
Well, it certainly wasn’t because the immense popularity of the State Labor governments they were challenging. They should have been easy meat.
No, it was because of their own unpopularity and un-electability.
That fact is that rather then embarking on a bit of self-examination and seeking to deal with the hard questions of what kind of party they wished to be and exactly what they stood for (philosophically and politically) after their previous losses, they just decided to punt for more of the same.
Rather than attempting to re-align themselves in the middle ground and get back to their small “l” roots, they positioned themselves at the Neo-Con ratbag end of the spectrum, every time.
Maybe this is Howard’s real legacy.
The State Liberal Parties couldn’t re-make themselves as small “l” types, so long as he occupied the wingnut fringe with his mate George Bush at a Federal level.
Well, hopefully, that’s about to change.
With Howard and the Federal Liberals gone, maybe they will (at last) do the necessary. Still, I doubt it will happen quickly.
They’ll probably elect some ex-Howard minister (like Costello or Abbott or-heaven forbid-Ruddock) as Opposition leader in the short to medium term and have to take a caning or two in successive Federal elections before they do any real thinking.
I hope they get back to what they once were: a wide church centrist outfit. However, I expect that this will take a lot of time.
They’ve got a helluva lot of baggage to ditch first.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22352973-12377,00.html
Survery re APEC.
Chris & Cortexvortex
Whilst I appreciate your comments, they miss the subtle difference in what I believe to be the root causes of our bureaucratic dilemma:
1. Chris, my beef is not with the extent of wages/claims with the Public Servant spend, it is with the sheer number employed, particularly “Behind the Curtain”. The Law of bureaucracy states that the number of near-meaningless activities will swell to fill the bureaucratic budget allocated. Before you know it, we all believe that it is necessary simply “because it is already there”. This is not expected in any other sphere of the community.
2. CV: Again, your comment exposes the idea that the relationship between bureaucracy and productivity is linear. I dispute this. Cutting jobs, does not necessarily mean cutting services, particularly if there is present ambiguity or overlap of governmental responsibility.
Here is an example:
When I came back from overseas, I applied for Centrelink for the first time ever, very eye-opening. I spent 2 hours on the phone in interviews with Families and then with Centrelink proper, filled in over 40 pages of forms, brought those in and had another one hour interview, where the bureaucrat entered in all my details (now for a fourth time) whilst I dictated. I had to bring in no fewer than 8 documents, a letter from a real estate agency, tax information and current bank statements. I had to ask her to repeat herself several times as I couldn’t hear over the general murmur of “desk stop visits”, coffee in hand.
I was then referred to a job seeking agency and did it all over again (graciously, it took 15 minutes there).
All in all, about 12 hours of “work”. I found myself a job in half an hour in the paper on the weekend and had the job by Friday. Then I spent another 8 hours trying to cancel the payments and stop the process. They overpaid me and eight months later, five letters, two phone calls and a personal visit later, they docked the amount from my tax return and I felt very relieved about our wonderful “safety net”!!!
Are you saying, in this age, that we couldn’t have done all that in less time, with less red tape?? I beg to differ. Sure I’m glad the services are there but I no longer resent the unemployed for sucking our tax, I resent each “go slow” bureaucrat costing 5 times as much.
Michael and Simon, (#122,& #123), Ramsay also predicted a Hewson win in 1993. I’d suggest Alan hates incumbent PM’s so much that he also tips against them, is spite of better judgement.
Chris, 114. Good point on salaries, the NT Little Children are Sacred report noted that the NT government struggles to attract police because salaries are uncompetitive.
Albert F Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 2:36 pm
I’ll bet the Govt’s ABC Attack dog will get all confuse and think the show is still on Aunty, and blame it on those evil lefties who have taken over the ABC – despite the fact that the show is on CH 7, owned by a major donor to the Liberal Party’s 500 club
Albert F at #119 said: “Once the campain start the Govt free adverting has to stop”
Is there something to prevent the government from continuing their taxpayer-funded ads once the election is called?
Hi Penriff ( I am an old Orchard Hills boy), Yes the Russian for “man of steel” is Stalin.
Evan (128),
“Look at the State Liberals: A bigger bunch of unelectable wackos and religious nut jobs would be harder to find. ”
Oh this is so true
…… Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland are the worst 
….. soon, oh so very soon, the Feberal Libs will find themselves in a not dissimilar position 
….. seeing as how the opinion polls are showing the government is looking down the barrels of sizeable loss, Howard could be leading the Federal Libs into the same black hole …
RX,
“Albert F at #119 said: “Once the campain start the Govt free adverting has to stopâ€
Is there something to prevent the government from continuing their taxpayer-funded ads once the election is called?”
I am not an expert on the laws or rules regarding this, have only been resident in Oz for 3 years. But using a calculated guess, I would say that it is because the government doesn’t then technically exist since things are in “caretaker” mode. Since they aren’t a government anymore and have been dissolved by the GG, they can’t use taxpayer funded monies and must use party coffers.
RX not that I know of. I remember those stupid terrorism hotline ads running well into the last week of the ‘04 campaign.
Saw the financial data above, which doesn’t include the effects of the last (August
interest rate rise. More than one Australian lender has already come out and said that the lender’s margins (difference between the cost of bank lending and the rate they charge borrowers) may need to increase due to the increased cost of money. That is, rates may rise even if the RBA does nothing.
Furthermore, the real possibility of a moderate recession in the United States raises the very real likelihood that Australia’s inflation issues will be sorted out by decreases in international demand, in the medium term. The RBA will at least want to see the effect of the most recent rise before deciding what, if anything, to do next.
With this in mind, the RBA is very unlikely to raise interest rates, unless some quite remarkable inflation figures are delivered for the September quarter. The likelihood of an interest rate rise before next year is less than 20%.
I still think 1 December. Howard doesn’t need to go earlier and he won’t go at all with the poll numbers where they are at the moment.
I think Howard can live with Rudd (and the lesser performing shadows) going around the country talking about delaying the election date. It gives scope for making the ALP look like a carping Crean-like opposition rather than the almost statesmanlike Rudd-led opposition. Howard could also turn that sort of talk around to making the ALP, rather than himself, look desperate.
It stands to reason that the Government will claw back support during the Campaign. Through their advertisements (if nothing else) they will finally be able to get their message out there – something that they’ve failed to do this year due being overwhelmed by a brilliant media campaign by Rudd and also a somewhat hostile media who themselves would not mind seeing a fresh landscape.
GO
I think one of the main reasons bureaucracy has swelled has been because of increasing amounts of paperwork. Ask teachers, police, lecturers etc how much time they spend on paperwork now compared with 10 years ago.
Sorry Greg? I don’t quite understand why it’s inevitable that their message will somehow get through during the campaign. I suppose you must be in the Tony Abbot “the public is sleep-walking” school of thought.
I suppose it’s a lot easier for you to assume that the problem the Coalition is facing is not of their making at all. It’s all down to that mean, nasty Kevin Rudd and the ‘hostile media’. Not to worry though, the public will see the light!
AK you are correct, my GP says he will be voting Labor this year for the first time. Because he spends his one day off a week filling in paperwork for the Federal Govt.
Caretaker conventions 6.1
News from the front in marginal Stirling, WA
Michael Keenan – pushing climate change. His flyer came out days after Garrett and Peter Tinley a hosted climate change meeting in electorate, I couldn’t attend, despite it being in the next street. My neighbour went along, she thought about 200 people attend, I guess they invited thousands along.
Is it worth the Libs running climate change, haven’t the ALP stolen a march on this issue??
On a positive note for Keenan, it was nice to see him address a national issue, rather than talking local council issues like graffiti.
Josh,
I’m with you. December 1 is the go (still a chance for nov 24, but i don’t think so). Howard will try to use the October sitting weeks to get some traction in the polls before calling it. October sitting weeks finish on 20 October – writs could be issued 29 October for a 1 December poll – gives Howard more time to grind Rudd down, find a legislative wedge to implement in the October sittings, make himself look more in control by passing some legislation and keep his fingers crossed just a wee bit longer. Having said that, Howard is the ultimate opportunist and if he sees an advantage pop up, he’ll run with it – first pick: 1 December – second pick: 24 November.
Anyone else?
I have finally figured Greg out, he is from Bizarro
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bizarro
where everything is the opposite of what it is here on Earth. On Bizarro, apparently, the entire Chodrum press is on the side of the evil Durr Nivek, and poor Drawoh Nhoj can’t get a word in sideways. On Bizarro, it seems that Senoj Nala and Enlim Nelg are shameless media whores for Nivek, and slander the virtuous Nhoj all the time. Also, it is the Bizzaro Rabol Party which has been soaking the media with taxpayer-funded propaganda all year, leaving the poor Larebils defenceless.
Gap narrowing?
Until the 1987 election, it was fairly true to say that the Coalition made gains during an election campaign (about 1% per week). Several subsequent elections (including 2001- oh yes!) put paid to that idea. One cannot even say these days that a Government usually gains at the expense of an Opposition during the campaign.
I nearly fell off my chair when I read this (from Greg): “Through their advertisments… they will finally be able to get their message out there – something that they’ve failed to do this year due being overwhelmed by a brilliant media campaign by Rudd…”
Whaddya talking about? We’ve been BOMBARDED with government advertising. What about those non-stop WorkChoices ‘infomercials’!? (The ‘mute’ button on my remote control is almost worn down to a nubbin!)
Yes I know these aren’t OFFICIALLY Liberal party election ads. And I know the IR policy is not called ‘WorkChoices’ any more. But call me a diehard cynic, but these IR ads look like, sound like and smell like political advertising. The govt “media campaign” is in full swing – and my taxes are paying for it. I’m guessing yours are too. Yes, the union commercials are just as bad (also a job for the ‘mute’ button) – but it’s the unions who are paying for those ads, not me.
Greg: If the Howard government can waste $2 billion on ads, including $800 million recently with no pickup in their vote, no amount of wasting our money can give them any hope.
You just need to look at the workchoices ad debacle and look at all that wasted taxpayers money the government could be putting instead wasting by putting into useless funds, when there is critical infrastructure that needs building.
The election will be in late October – inflation figures due out then, sure to be interest rate rise in November
Alex,
George Megalogenis just said the same thing. You’re in good company.
I see your logic, but i think Howard will gamble on interest rates staying stable for the rest of ‘07. Either way, I guess we’ll find out before too long, eh?
I hope G Megalogenis is right. The sooner the better. Then I can get on with my other life!
Strippergate seems such a long time ago! Wonder what Dolly will make of this? One’s trash is another’s treasure.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22353912-12377,00.html
Optimist (146)
“Having said that, Howard is the ultimate opportunist and if he sees an advantage pop up, he’ll run with it – first pick: 1 December – second pick: 24 November.
Anyone else?”
I don’t care to guess too much about dates the election will be held, I am not very good at that [witness my poor record in tipping this footy season
]. However, I believe that the window is something like 33 to 68 days for the campaign. Could be off by a number or two on those, but to the point :
No matter when the election is actually held, I think that it will be called pretty much after APEC, perhaps at the end of the September parliament sitting dates. If he does that : a minimum campaign would take in the late October favored date and a maximum campaign runs into a late November election date. That way, he gets away from the constant cry of “when, when, when?” by everyone that is sure to start up the drum roll as soon as the last dignitary clears out of town up here in Sydney. We have had a phony election campaign since very early this year anyways, why not make it official?
My money is going on the date that the election is **called**, not what date it is actually held – September 20, last date of the Parliament sitting.
Film on TV news of Sydney. It looks like the wall between East and West Berlin during the Cold War. All the stations are predicting traffic chaos. The thing I didn’t think of is that instead of the Networks leading their nightly news programs with shots of Howard playing the world statesman, they’re more likely to lead with frustrated and angry Sydney commuters. So much for the Government being able to control the news cycle.
So long as the ferals don’t start a riot and actually kill or seriously injure someone, then the issue will become law ‘n’ order, which would be a distraction.
Question: will the police be able to use their horses for crowd control, or are they quarantined? I have fond memories of being trodden on by one at an anti-Springbok demo in 1971 (the only thugby match I have ever attended by the way).
Julie,
don’t know that i can agree there.
I see your point about him avoiding the “when, when, when” but I’m inclined to think that Howard wants to leave open the opportunity to make up more ground. The Government has tried everything but the kitchen sink and i can see them standing in the chamber in October to say…”Mr Speaker, I rise today to commend to the House the 2007 Kichen Sink Amendment.”
Just my take on it.
( 98
Adam Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Howard has fought five elections. )
Adam, I agree with your post about Howard’s real popularity. I think the real base line for working out which seats are marginal is not the 2004 election but the 2001 election. Take the Latham effect out of the picture and a lot more seats are marginal than most people assume.
Adam, there have been more than a few rumours around Sydney over the last week that the Equine Flu outbreak and APEC are semi-related. There have been some suggestions put about that EI was deliberately let loose at Centennial Park as that’s also very close to the police horse centre in Surry Hills (about 1km away), and so would adversely affect the cops’ preparations for crowd control at APEC. Personally I don’t think these rumours are true, but that’s never stopped me before from spreading juicy rumours.
A little something for us from Salon.com:
Rove ran around in September and October of 2006 insisting that the Republicans would win the midterm election. His certainty of victory was so great, including in private, that even the GOP establishment began whispering, with increasing anger, that he was delusional. His political strategy proved to be as inept as his predictions, as his political party suffered a crushing defeat of historic proportions in that election.
No police horse patrols will be used at APEC because of the horse flu outbreak. Not only are the horses within the Randwick lockdown area (10k radius I think) [although they aren't housed at Randwick directly], middle to late last week several of them actually came down with it themselves. Quarantine procedures say 30 days from the last verified case, so if they get it in tandem rather than all at once, they might not be using mounted police for anything in Sydney for months …..
158
Optimist Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 4:48 pm
“Julie, don’t know that i can agree there.
I see your point about him avoiding the “when, when, when†but I’m inclined to think that Howard wants to leave open the opportunity to make up more ground. The Government has tried everything but the kitchen sink and i can see them standing in the chamber in October to say…â€Mr Speaker, I rise today to commend to the House the 2007 Kichen Sink Amendment.†Just my take on it. ”
If that comes to pass, then take the video clip of parliament that day and submit it to Funniest Home Videos ;-D ………
Wide Bay just got a bit messy. High profile former ALP state member for Noosa Kate Malloy will run as an independent – in a new Bob Katter political “movement”.
Although wide bay looks safe it did go to preferences last election. Warren Truss may be a little concerned about this. The Katter factor may swing votes from him to Malloy.
After the redistribution Noosa is now in wide bay. One to watch.
Still don’t think the ALP can win Wide Bay. The state govt’s Traveston Dam proposal is very unpopular, might be the only seat in the state that records a swing to the Coalition.
(in a new Bob Katter political “movementâ€)
A new version of the DLP?
Shrek has responded to the Kath and Kim episode. I hope that means it gets a run on the news, or at least on channel 7:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22354516-5005962,00.html
Timbo my point exactly, Truss may lose votes to Malloy who has campaigned on the dam and amalgamation. Thus splitting the coaltion vote.
Not saying Labor will win, but it just got interesting.
I dont have Wide Bay even on my wish list, lol. I am more concerned about Longman, Petrie, Blair and Hinkler staying with the Composition due to the amalgamations fiasco. I
m hoping something else will be paramount in the swingers minds in those seats come election day; maybe promises to issue Barbara Streisand CDs to every electorate that stays with the Coalition; that oughta make them forget about amalgamations and preserve their property values instead.
The amalgamation votes are going to be held on October 20, I doubt Howard will want to go that early. So it will be all forgotten about a couple of weeks after then.
If the Libs lose the election we’ll be hearing that phrase “bloody Howard” a lot from conservatives.
The amalgamation plebicites will be a postal vote, most people will throw them in the bin as junk mail.
Not sure what Bob Katter’s political movement could be called with Monster Raving Loony Party already taken.
Yeah the hubby took a toilet break on the shop floor on Cath n Kim. Very political statements made last night by those 2.
It will be totally lame. They’ll get 30% of people responding, out of those a majority will probably say amalgamations are bad. Then they will claim that that is some definitive proof that the amalagamations shouldn’t go ahead, when most people couldn’t care less.
The feds are not alone on spending vast amounts of money on advertising. The Victorian Labor government has been shameless on adds touting what they’ve done, or what they have failed to do. No one has yet questioned how much advertising money was spent on the Water adds starring Steve Bracks. They went down the dunny with his resignation.
“Question: will the police be able to use their horses for crowd control, or are they quarantined? ”
See Bruce Petty’s take in today’s Age.
Newspoll? My expectation is 56-44. Given my expectation last time was 57-43 and it came out 56-44, that means it’ll probably come out 55-45.
the ‘bloody howard’ line featured in an earlier K&k series when Kel was trying to calculate the GST on a gourmet sausage.
Big ears should have the Newspoll result for the 7.30 report, Im sticking with a hope for 57-43 and reality 56-44 guesstimate. Get your final bids in now.
Who is more pathetic? Dolly Downer or Hockey? Something for us to ponder.
Greg: even more Howard government propoganda advertising on the way? How can I contain my excitement? Thank god for remote controls.
I’ll be pessimistic and go for 54-46, but I bet I’m very wrong.
Ruawake (sounds like an hawaiian island rather than a question),
I’ve never entertained the possibility of a Labor win there, but a high profile indy does complicate the situation. Isn’t Gympie the last remaining hotbed of one Nation? I wonder if they’ll put up a candidate also.
Spoke with the brother of balackburnpseph last week – he is resident in the electorate of Leichhardt FNQ. He is pleased by the council amalgamations but mentioned that the locals in his part of the world are not keen on the Beattie govt, and though they don’t mind Rudd, don’t want a Labor government at both levels, and hence will vote against KR.
Katter’s party is indeed the DLP – the Delusional Loony Party. If Molloy (note spelling) has got in bed with Katter (politically speaking), she is even sillier than I thought, and nearly as silly as her husband, Ivan “Milat” Molloy who was such a brilliant candidate for Fairfax last time (he of the MNLF photo, remember?). Katter has tried this before, don’t forget, and his candidates came nowhere.
blackburnpseph,
Wouldn’t it be a tragedy if the weakness of the Libs is what keeps them in power.
Timbo says:
The last remaining hotbed of One Nation is the seat of Tablelands west of Cairns. It lies within the Federal electorate of Kennedy.
Labor isn’t going to win Leichardt or Wide Bay.
Reported on PM that Howard will discuss “intelligence” matters with Bush during APEC. That’s really, really funny. “I’ll show you mine if …”
Ah yes a survey with a sample size of 1. Now that’s what I call reliable.
Jule @ 136:
If the Libs do get whacked then the members for Hillsong (ie. Markus, Morrison and Hawke) will make up a fair proportion of the Lib caucus. They will drift off to rabid right irrelevance.
Alan Ramsay gets up every morning, eats half a dozen lemons for breakfast, takes an hour long bath in his own bile and then sits and contemplates the half empty glass all day.
He can only see the worst in people and is a person who has gone sour because he has been around too long.
He also hitched his mast to Latham and has been trying to find excuses (other than the fact that the guy was a psycho) ever since.
Late mail from the punters – every so slight drift towards the ALP over the weekend. What does it mean? – not much except that the balance of expectation is for a 55/45 newspoll.
Interesting to see what spins out if its a long way from this. I get the sense that Howard is hoping to make some in-roads and call the election whilst still basking in the world leader glow from APEC. A poor poll here could sink that little plan.
I’ll go with 56-44.
whatever the poll, say he will still call it.
Cmon election and qld plebescites on the same day is just too tempting.
57.5/42.5 Oct 13 if Guy Fawkes comes to APEC. If not, Dec. 1.
‘Bush’ and ‘intelligence’ used in the same sentence? Hmm, must be a first.
Apparently the Police don’t like people taking photos of the fence in Sydney. I guess we’ll soon need a fence around the fence.
If Katter has recruited an ex-Labor MP for Wide Bay, wouldn’t that split the Labor vote, rather than the coalition vote? I can’t see Wide Bay voting for anyone but the Nats. I am descended from Gympie stock, and they have always been convinced that the ALP was a communist front.
Interestingly, Katter would probably lose his own seat of Kennedy to the Nats if the ALP gave the Nats its preferences. But they won’t. Unlike the Victorian seat of Shepparton, where Labor preferenced the Nats (I think) to help the win the seat against an independent, whom Labor accused of being a “Liberal stooge”.
The Victorian state situation has also put a thought into my mind, which I haven’t seen debated on this site. If the coalition loses the election, will the Federal Nats split from the coalition and go it alone, as they have done in some states?
Say what you like about Katter but I reckon he’s good entertainment value. Always gives us our monies worth in laughs. The only other one who gives us more laughs would be Downer. Now if you could get them both together in a TV sitcom you’d have a hit. Dumb and Dumber Down Under.
‘I am descended from Gympie stock, and they have always been convinced that the ALP was a communist front’.
OMG They’re on to us.
ABC News appears not to be showing anything on tomorrow’s poll. They sailed through all of the APEC crap with not a mention of it. Good to see Rudd got some air time in all of that, however, condemning violent protests.
I still think it’ll be 57-43. Of interest will be the preferred PM and primary vote numbers.
Wide Bay now includes Noosa, Kate Malloy was kicked out of the Labor party.
If she takes votes it will be from Truss, people will think they are voting against the dam and amalgamation but all they will do is make Truss nervous.
If Labors primary vote can get above 33% it will be fun.
Interestingly, Bob Katter’s father was a member of the ALP and he is of Lebanese descent.
57 – 43
Katter was at U of Q at the same time as I was. Mad as a cut snake then as now. Cerainly provided as much fodder for satire, mirth for us loony lefties, as he does now. There’s a mate in FNQ who has a theory about the politics of FNQ, which goes like this: the squattocracy, and anyone else who could afford it, send their children off to boarding schools, where they mix with the like minded mostly. The brighter of them decide the back blocks aren’t for them when they get to Uni and marry each other, usually never going back permanently; the dimmer of them have simply been left at home or have to go back home where they then interbreed with each other, thus accounting for the collective IQ and voting of FNQ. The USA has its deep south, we have our deep north. I’m going 55/45 for Newspoll. Still think what I’ve read on all the psephology sites that have some gravitas, that the die is cast.
Why wouldn’t Kate Molloy pick up Labor votes, from Labor supporters who don’t want the Traveston Dam? Why would non-Labor voters switch to her, if they had Katter and a Nat to vote for?
Not being in Queensland (though desended from banana benders) though, I don’t know the lie of the land. Where do Katter and truss stand on the traveston dam?
Sorry ignore my previous post. Was sipping red wine at the time. Remove the words “Katter and” from the second and fourth lines of post no 205!
The fourth line on my screen does not have “Katter and” so I removed “Queesland” and replaced it with “Redneck heavan and god’s waiting room”
- it all makes sense now
55-45
No mention in the 730 Report either. Maybe the GG is a bit jealous of the ABC getting an early scoop. Curses! It really is getting like the night before Christmas. Can’t stand the suspense. We’ll really have to get a life soon!
The worst of it is that, even though he seems doomed, the Old Rodent is probably in his element. He’s really an electioneering nerd.
More ‘me-tooism’ from Kevin Rudd, if i were PM id do everything the same as Howard at APEC wow what vision from Rudd (did you hear him yelling who was the idiot who decided to do a media stump on the side of a highway????)
I can tell you one thing Howard did not engage during the 1996 in this gutless ‘me-tooism’ politics that Rudd is engaged in atm at least in 1996 Howard stood for something…if Rudd’s going to win he’s got to tell us what he’ll do with the economy in particular…ignoring it and hoping it will go away wont change the fact that the election will come down to economic management…
I thought Rudd would know better as an ex employee of DFAT that to get a binding agreements on emission targets is not possible to achieve the best result we can hope for is a binding a commitment to cut emissions but not with binding targets that would ruin some developing countries…Rudd wants us to sign up to Kyoto when there are no targets for developing countries…
Typical Michael Brissenden on 7:30 report tonight…another Rudd supporter and future ALP federal candidate who so candidly said Howard would get no benefit whatsoever from APEC if that’s the case ill eat my hat!
Lateline should have the results of the Newspoll 2.5hours to go everybody is Howard coming back again or is he on the ropes once again…time will tell…
prediction:
ALP 54
Coalition 46
Probably be 55-45 again. If it moves any further towards Labor, it really is all over. Sales of valium will be up for the next couple of months.
Generic Oracle (130),
I could say a lot more, but really this blog is about Newspoll, so I will leave it with this: There are inefficiencies in the public sector, but no more than tin the private sector if what I have experienced is any guide. The public sector that I worked in, that of schools, was full of incredibly hard-working people. The inefficiencies actually increased as it was forced to adopt the jargon and weird ways of the private sector.
John Howard will gain nothing from meeting with world leaders at APEC. He may gain something from the violent antics of the ferals if they can be associated in the public mind with the Labor Party. You can be sure that Kevin Rudd will effectively limit the Labor connection with any disruptive or violent behaviour. The more Greens signs and the fewer Labor ones at the protests, the better for the Labor Party!
Alan Ramsay’s glass doesn’t stay half-empty for long, if you know what I mean.
It amazes me you dummies out there dont’ even realise that while you guys are bickering over a poll that is due to come out that it doesn’t really make any difference. no one knows until the day of the election what will happen. GET OVER IT!!! GET ON WITH LIFE!!!
That post was an example of one of your poorer efforts.
Howard went ME TOO on nearly EVERYTHING that Keating said! Where did he differ? I guess on I.R. (which the average Joe hates), and he wanted to privatise Telstra, that was about the only difference. He knew that after 13 years, Keating was out of puff, Rudd realises the same is happening with Howard.
“wow what vision from Rudd (did you hear him yelling who was the idiot who decided to do a media stump on the side of a highway????)” – Glen
That was not a good look at all. Even ABC news couldn’t resist juxtaposing images of the PM strolling around outside the Opera House greeting people and Rudd at the side of a road screaming at reporters.
As for Newspoll, if an increase in Labor’s support were on the cards rest assured Kerry O’Brien would have been all over it.
Yes, Gary Bruce. It’s about “intelligenge sharing”, apparently. It’s obviously a ploy by Howard to big-note himself. Top spooks and old that, old chap. Hush hush stuff. Don’t think the punters will take any notice. In fact, it might scare the shite out of some of ‘em.
Re: Newspoll. Lateline had the break last time, as I recall.
Generic Oracle (130)
Has it occurred to you that the endless paperwork you had to fill out for Centrelink is as a result of current government policy, which demands an (unjustifiable) degree of intrusive paternalistic control over the unemployed (and disabled, single parents, etc)? Don’t complain about the public servants, or the PS bureaucracy, blame the government for requiring it and not funding the system properly.
Well Simon my poorer efforts still manage to make more sense than your empty Howard hating rants…
At least Howard had some vision, and a view to restore our economy by balancing the books and pay off Labor’s debt and he wanted less power for the Union movement and the introduction of AWAs…completely different to Labor’s IR and privatization of Telstra ect.
Answer me this Simon if Howard is so then why is Rudd copying the Prime Minister in just about everything except IR???
Howard is not out of puff and no matter how much you dislike him he’s not as hated like Keating was back in 1996…
If Rudd is exactly the same as Howard or a Howard lite why would people change when you put them next to each other…
I think its highly likely Howard will debate Rudd twice if he’s well behind in the polls and Rudd is likely to accept…then it will be make or break…
2hours to go until Newspoll…
Steven Kaye,
Didn’t you see Kerry’s red tie?
He seemed a lot happier than usual.
I noticed a little smile on his face too.
For someone who was Gough Whitlam’s media adviser no wonder Kerry is happy at the moment Fagin…it’s no secret he is a Labor voter just as Tony Jones is…Howard will close the gap on preferred PM and approval ratings after APEC that is a no brainer…
We’ll have Howard meeting and greeting world leaders and Rudd shouting from a freeway about how he’d do everything the same and would think APEC is dead if it didnt come up with a binding emission targets scheme…Rudd will get nothing out of APEC and the more violent APEC is the better for Howard also the security pact with the USA giving Australia more military technology secrets will reaffirm Howard’s credentials on defence and national security…
I think we are at the crossroads, and Newspoll will give some insight to which way we are headed.
The ALP have been way ahead all year, we have seen some movement towards the Govt, but more slowly than they would have liked.
Its been two weeks since the rate rise was announced, there is talk of another, the ALP have released good solid Health and I.R policies, while Howard is focusing on APEC, we have the issue of the Pulp Mill.
Generally I feel we will see a 55-45 Newspoll, although I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 53-47 or 56-44 if this is the case then I don’t think we will see much movement until the Election is called, I’m tipping Oct 27
The result will then result on both the over all national campaign and local, If Rudd wins that campaign 55–45 is a real possiblity meaning a massive landslide win.
If Howard wins campaign which mostly likey will happen if the ALP make a major gaffe then there is still a chance Howard could win.
Based on the trends I would expect the Election result to have the ALP anywhere between 52-55 but in saying this this Govt has won 4 elections so regardless of reasons behind those wins they know how to win.
Answer me this Glen, if Howard is so much better then why is Rudd is so far ahead in the polls especially since he is only or merely copying the Prime Minister in just about everything except IR???
Glen perhaps you can explain Howard’s enormous courage in 1996 in repeatedly denying that he would bring in the GST, when he fully intended doing so. That was a barefaced lie, because he knew the floaters wouldn’t float to him if they thought they were going to get a GST. And again in 2004, where was the promise to bring in these IR laws? Even Latham would have beaten Howard if the floaters had known what he had in store for them. He has consistently lied his way into office for the past decade.
Anita,
Everyone here has been going on about polls all year, I suspect nothing knew has been written since May LOL
Glen: APEC won’t be the election winner Howard and you Liberals are hoping for, in fact it’ll lose the Rodent votes in Sydney especially.
Sydneysiders are pissed off and a little alarmed at the over the top security being imposed on them.
Newspoll: 55-45
We’ve got the Glen and Steven K tag team back again. I’ve got plagiarism detection software. Careful boys and girls.
cheers,
Alan H
Your comment simply didn’t match with historical fact, no need to attack me personally. I thought you had turned a corner and were expressing your views in a more reasonable fashion, but I guess I was wrong.
The economy didn’t need restoring in 1996. Growth was 4.5%, inflation was 2.5%, productivity was 2%. Now growth is 3.5%, inflation 3%, productivity 0.5%. I know which numbers I prefer.
Because elections are a race to the centre. The parties realise that most voters want moderate policies, and that most of their judgement is actually based on emotive things, like whether they like the candidate or not. Obviously voters think Rudd is a more acceptable candidate than Beazley, Crean, Latham, and even Howard.
Howard moderated a lot as well remember. He repudiated his stance on the pace of Asian immigration, he realised that no government could be elected that wanted to get rid of Medicare so he stopped opposing it. He realised he couldn’t form government if he supported the GST, so again, he got rid of that, even though he wanted it.
So why have 1.2 million voters switched parties since 2005? Do you think, as Howard suggests, that it is all just a gag?
Howard will lose the debates, or at best, break even. Having two debates will just give Rudd more ’standing’ by showing him directly against Howard. He will not do this, at most there will be 1 debate, and it will be in the 1st or 2nd week of the campaign.
Adam, what about Beazley’s threat to “rollback” the GST when he had absolutely no intention of doing so?
I reckon the ALP is one of the most intellectually dishonest major parties in the English-speaking world.
Glen, there will be zero bounce for Apec for Howard. Most people couldn’t give a rats ass. Those that do are Sydney people and are right royally peeved.
People who are concerned about cost of living and interest rates care very little about a PM meeting a group of leaders head by the most unpopular president in US history about issues where NOTHING concrete will be finalised.
And the shirts. Don’t forget the shirts. Once Mr and Mrs Punter sees Howard lookin snazzy in one of those, his poll numbers will go north faster than a retired Victorian.
Actually it’s in Australia so what are they going to do? Mambo tshirts? Get everyone to wear hats with dagly corks?
Simon, that is what Glen does mate.
He slips in one rational, reasonable balanced comment to suck you into engaging with him, then off he goes on another 200 entry rant about how the sun shines out of Howards lower exit point and Rudd is the devil incarnate.
He has been doing this crap for months and has made a joke of this blogspace for rational, reasonable debate. I will never understand why the host has allowed this completely aimless crap to go on and on and on.
Your site William, your prerogative, your money.
I for one dont think is simply a matter of one Liberal voice of reason and debate being circled by Labor supporters, it is just utter crap and a waste of space…has been for months now.
When will you do something about it William ?
Glen at 221:
” the USA giving Australia more military technology secrets will reaffirm Howard’s credentials on defence and national security…”
Yes, I’m sure aircraft and guidance missile software codes will play miraculously well in the households of middle Australia (is there an emoticon that has one eyebrow raised while gagging with disbelief?)
As for the polls, is it just me, or does the the Coalition look like they are one rogue poll away from self immolation?
Some dodgy number like an ALP 61/39 would turn politics into a veritable circus about now.
I’d be tempted to cook some popcorn.
Ollie: Glen doesn’t worry me too much! I find I’m ignoring all the crap being spouted by Howard supporters these days. In their desperation, they are digging their own grave.
A-C, that was a perfectly honest commitment. If Beazley had won I’m sure there would have been significant changes to the GST brought in, although without control of the Senate it would have been difficult to unpick the deal that the Democrats did with Howard. This rather feeble diversion does nothing to answer my point about Howard and the GST in 1996. You can’t know what Beazley would have done, because he never became PM. We do know what Howard said, and what he did. He said he would “never ever” bring in a GST. That was a straightforward, calculated, conscious lie. He favoured it in 1993, he still favoured it in 1996, and as soon as he got into office he discarded “never ever” like a snake discards last year’s skin.
Here is my thinking
I took a look at the older Newspolls on their web page showing first prefernce (not TPP). I guessed an equivalent date to this poll and came up with the following polls and final first preferences (it will format poorly).
Newspoll April 3-5, 10-12 1987 43 46
Newspoll December 1-3 & 8-10 1989 40 43.5
Newspoll December 19-20 1992 42 44.3
Newspoll 15-17 December 1995 47 47
Newspoll 24-26 July 1998 35 39.5
Newspoll 10-12 August 2001 40 43.1
Newspoll 2-4 July 2004 43 46.7
The only time they didn’t increase by 3% was when they were already on 47% first preference.
I am guessing a 41 (46 TPP) will be reported in equivalent terms to an inevitable coalition win.
Adam: Workchoices at the very least will ensure the Coalition doesn’t have control of the senate again. Look what happens when a PM has too much power in this hands. The Rodent just couldn’t resist the opportunity to fulfill his lifelong dream – it’s a pity the Australian public weren’t told about this in 2004.
Ok one at a time Rudd Cheer squad….
Pauline is first…
“If Howard is so much better then why is Rudd is so far ahead in the polls especially since he is only or merely copying the Prime Minister in just about everything except IR?”
- Howard’s IR policy was mismanaged fairly and squarely i am big enough to admit that Pauline and clearly that policy designed to strengthen our economy has been seen as a very bad negative for the Government and has been ammunition for the ALP to bash the Howard Government for months and months…a vote winner for Labor not for Howard.
-Kim was unpopular and a drovers dog could of been more popular than him no offence because Kim would have been a better PM if the ALP does win later this year…
-Rudd has been media staged since he took office in 1998 and the plain and simple fact is the media have not held Rudd and his polices to account as they have done for the Howard Government…result Howard goes down in the polls.
-Boredom plain and simple people like the look of Rudd and are easily led into the trap by the media who say Howard is out of touch and old and tired and past his used by date…if Howard loses alot of the reasons for that loss will be because people got bored with how well Australia was going and felt like a change for changes sake…
OLLIE is next
“Bloody hell; another aimless pro Howard rant from Glen: pathetic in the extreme.”
Ollie if i didnt post anything supporting the Howard Government any outsider would see this blog as a part of Kevin O7 and not an independent all encompassing debate in politics…if you dont like people expressing their views which are different to yours perhaps you dont like democracy? Ollie im afraid that if i am to be labelled as a ranting pathetic Howard hugger they’d be a few posters who would take the baton as ranting pathetic Rudd huggers…
And finally my dear ‘friend’ Adam…
“Explain Howard’s enormous courage in 1996 in repeatedly denying that he would bring in the GST, when he fully intended doing so. That was a barefaced lie, because he knew the floaters wouldn’t float to him if they thought they were going to get a GST. And again in 2004, where was the promise to bring in these IR laws?”
- the GST cost the Libs the 1993 election that idiot Hewson should have been able to express a GST better and not single handedly destroy his campaign instead…
-Howard had no plans for a GST before the election but once in power saw how State taxes were crippling the Australian economy that something had to be done.
-With respect Adam…Howard did fight the 1998 election on this issue and the people decided and kept his Government in power…
-Adam i thought someone like you would know the meaning of a ‘non-core’ promise i mean what else was Howard’s pledge but a ‘non-core’ it was a negative with the public but it had to be done if he got into power to sought out the economy.
-In 2004 if Howard brought in his IR policy with unfair dismissal and AWAs with no-disadvantage tests he’d still have won the election…Howard failed when he didnt add the no-disadvantage test with pre-2005 AWAs…
-Also Adam any political pundit would know the Libs supported since 1996 greater de-regulation of the IR system and the privatisation of Telstra but couldnt do it because the Senate blocked our reforms time and time again…the people voted for it but we couldnt get it done so now that we could do it we did…
Ill keep this my last post until i comment on the polls later…to be continued…
What he said. It’s Time.
As for Possum’s comment in the post prior to that (234) – it makes me wonder what the tipping point might be for an immolation. 63-37? It won’t happen, as I think even a rogue poll perhaps won’t go over 60, I don’t think.
What if it did, though? What could the Libs possibly do about (i.e. a leadership challenge) while APEC is on? Maybe as the leaders are all driving to the airport, someone gets out the knife quickly before JWH can rush over to the GGs and start the election, just to save himself.
All speculation, though, and it won’t happen, but you can dream.
Glen says of Howard’s “never ever” pledge: “what else was Howard’s pledge but a ‘non-core’ it was a negative with the public but it had to be done if he got into power to sought [sic] out the economy.” Well. I didn’t expect Glen to admit so openly that it was a lie. I am impressed. I don’t think Lib Bloggers Central will be impressed, though. Glen might be recalled for reprogramming.
Glen spoils his record, however, with this absurdity: “Howard had no plans for a GST before the election but once in power saw how State taxes were crippling the Australian economy that something had to be done.”
Um, Howard only noticed in 1996 that “State taxes were crippling the Australian economy”? Funny, that’s what he and Hewson repeated ad nauseam in the 1993 campaign. It was a central premise of FightBack. Did he forget? Did it slip his mind in the excitement of becoming Leader? Had he had FightBack surgically removed from his brain? Come along, Glen, you’re no fun at all when you give us such tosh.
Glen boredom does not change the status quo on the contrary it enforces it as in ‘who cares’ and ‘what difference does it make?’ And in any case the boredom argument is the weakest of them all. It is a total and utter furphy and red herring.
It might help you feel better about the inevitable outcome but it won’t wash with the great unwashed. The polls do show that there is a higher than normal number of voters engaged and decided. When it comes down to personal issues such as interest rates, petrol and grocey prices, housing prices and job security than you have the attention of the voter. And they are all bad for the Govt. That’s why the polls are bad. And of course the little lying rodent can’t be trusted anymore after pulling the IR stunt and GST stunt etc on voters before.
Re Julie at #137 & Albert F at #119 on government advertising and the caretaker period.
Successive governments have followed the convention (not law) that, once the Parliament is dissolved, the government goes into ‘caretaker’ mode. The basic idea underlying the convention is that, with no Parliament, the Executive is no longer accountable and should not take decisions which would bind an incoming government.
When it comes to advertising, let me quote from the August advice issued by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (187kb .pdf)
The important thing to remember is that there is no legal basis for the convention, and that the interpretation and enforcement of the convention is ultimately a matter for the government itself, which is still in full legal command. The attitude of the bureaucracy to implementing the conventions will naturally depend on which way they see the political wind blowing…
#237 sorry ifonly, but first preferences for which party? what are final first preferences?
Im going to try here to save William 200-300 entries and present reasons Glen will give if the newspoll favours Labor and then the Coalition.
Glen just pick a number {coded it for you and all I have} and entry that as your contribution then go to bed and dream of being invited to Kirribilli.
Newspoll in Rudds favour
1. A rogue poll
2. A communist conspiracy between the ALP and newspoll
3. Kerry big ears paid them to get it wrong
4. Rudd is mini me [mee tooism]
5. Bush, yes thats it, Bush is in town
6. The media are biased towards the Rudd ster
7. Rudd is gutless and cant tie his own shoes laces [no experience]
8. My mum forgot to change my nappies and I am dribbling on my shirt
9. The union thugs have beaten the voters into voting for Labor
10. The voters are having a ‘bit of a joke’ with JWH, just kidding.
Newspoll in Howards favour
1. The true election poll, the first one all year, has finally come out
2. The electorate beleive JWH is the best Prime Minister this country ever had.
3. Rudd lost credibility with strippergate
4. John, oh John,, oh oh oh……….sorry where was I , oh yes,
5. APEC has reminded the Australian community of JWH high standing and influence [Ollie nearly puked writing that]in the international community
6. People know that global warning is actually a Labor party myth
7. John Hewson apologised for losing the unloseable election at last.
8. Peter Costello has declared he, indeed, is the greatest ever trevor esurer that ever existed
9. God is ‘on our side’
10. Rudd was exposed for not playing well with other children in kindergarten.
Choose Glen, punch in a number, then go to bed.. please !!
Glen, a majority of Australians voted against Howard in 1998. He had no mandate for the GST, even after the event. He lied about the GST, as Adam said, a deliberate, barefaced lie. He lied when he said he hadn’t made a decision on whether to back Bush’s stupid Iraq adventure. He had already told Bush, and Bush confirmed it in public, but Howard didn’t have the guts or decency to tell the Australian people. Another deliberate, barefaced lie. There are many of them. He’s gone, you know it, we all know it. A little, little man, the worst PM Australia has ever had, whose ‘vision’ never extended beyond the next election. His legacy, a regressive tax. Clap, Clap.
cheers,
Alan H
Simon i was trying to reply to others so i didnt see your post id be happy to answer some of your questions as reasonably and calmly as i can so that everybody wins…and no i am not a troll and i do want to engage you in debate whenever possible
Ok here we go…
Firstly i find it funny that i am considered rational and reasonable whenever i make a post that is either critical of John Howard and the Liberal Party or when i make no mention of Rudd or Labor’s failings…so the ‘beauty’ of a post is in the eye of the beholder.
Actually Simon the economy did need restoration…Interest rates at about 9%…inflation at the limit for the reserve bank at 3%…unemployment at 10% and net commonwealth debt at 96billion dollars with 8billion a year needed for interest payments on that debt
1996 Inflation 3%
Unemployment 10%
Interest Rates 8-9%
Productivity 2%
Net Debt – 96b
or 2007 Inflation 2.5-3%
Unemployment 4.4%
Interest Rates 6.5%
Productivity – 0% but predicted far higher in forward estimates
Net Gov Debt – 0
Budget surplus – 13.5b
I know which one id want…
Agree with your view about the race for the centre couldnt agree more about that statement…the GST was unpopular but necessary that’s why it was a ‘non-core’ promise and Beazley’s roll back lie was a joke…
We don’t know 1.2million voters have changed for sure i dont think its a gag at all clearly Howard is going to lose votes in 2007 just how many will decide the election.
If the polls dont move and Howard is facing for a loss i dont see the harm in going for two and hoping Rudd puts his foot in it…
Boll #246 sorry, Coalition
further to my comment at #246, I take it you`re predicting a mid-December election?
Do you think that if Howard waits too long to call the election it might give the impression he knows he’s going to lose?
If he gives off that impression he could lose the votes of those who like to back winners.
I think Glen is a genius. He continues to expose the rancid soul of the Liberal Party.
Hearing on ABC Radio this afternoon a report on the impact of the APEC lockdown and how local cafes etc have lost 70% of business since the fences gone up, and they are contemplating whether to stay open, or just shut up shop for the duration.
I wonder how many of these owners are Liberal voters, and whether this will influence their vote ?
CTEP it is a catch-22 if he goes early and is too far behind he wont win…but if he waits longer people will think he’s hanging on for dear life and subverting democracy as Mr Rudd claims so…either way neither going early or late is guaranteed of success for Howard.
While he likes being the underdog there is such a thing as being seen to be a spent electoral force and Howard is working hard to insure this imagry is not with the voting public…whether it will work is another matter entirely…id rather be in Rudd’s position 10-12 points ahead against an incumbent government months away from a poll…im sure Howard does too…
Makes me think we’ve gone back to 2004 and the “27 Lies of Howard” document that was doing the rounds back then.
There are two sorts of lie in this world…I do and I did.
People who make a promise intended for the future will often find that their intentions change, are all divorcees liars? Clearly howard thought he would never ever intoduce a GST even though he, Keating and anyone else with any sense knew it was in the best interest of the nation. He found the need for Australia so went to the people with the policy (and probably thereby saved us from the worst of the Asian meltdown).
People who tell untruths about the past are different but there are normally verifiable facts. To lie about what you did or your life growing up is an “I did” not an “I do”.
Boll #251
I am thinking mid November.
Thanks Glen… that makes a lot of sense. I’d imagine there’s probably more in it for Howard to wait than to call early.
There’s always risks things could get worse though…
Yes, I think this. Glenn Milne wrote an article about this in the News Ltd. papers on Sunday.
To me this rules out a December election. The polls have be stuck at 55/45 all year, I don’t think they will change much. But I guess the News Poll in 1 hour could prove me completely wrong!
cheers, interesting stats.
I wonder if the Equine Flu inquiry will have an impact on the Election date and whether being in caretaker mode may result in any inquiries being able to continue during an election campaign ?
Ifonly says: “Clearly howard thought he would never ever intoduce a GST.” That is not clear at all. He intended all along to introduce a GST. He was in favour of a GST in 1993, and he was in favour of one in 1998. The only reason he pretended to be against one in 1996 was to get elected – Glen admitted as much a few minutes ago. You can argue if you like that this was a necessary lie to save the nation from bolshevism or whatever, but please don’t insult our intelligence with this silly claim that Howard changed his mind about the GST and then changed it back again. I doubt even he would claim that.
( Equine Flu inquiry )
They will delay any report on findings until after the election.
Yes but Adam at least Howard had the balls to do what was best for the country even though they didnt like it…it had to be done but Keating was gutless and did nothing…Hewson stuffed up the GST and gave it a bad name…the moral of the story is ‘never say never’….
Also i think it funny how you accuse Howard of lying but not Hawke, Keating, Beazley or Rudd of that same attribute…one should accept that all politicians do it because lets face it politics is dirty…
Chris
Yeah good point about the topic, I do tend to stray.. this one started on the Lindsay thread and we moved it over here but, to be honest, there are only so many comments one can make essentially reading entrails on Newspoll and reading Glen’s trolls
(Hey Glen, I do actually enjoy reading them, even the long ones!! Heck, I can’t talk!!).
Yeah, really this was not a public sector/private sector comparison, just commenting on our high taxation and (relatively) inefficient service delivery in Australia for that tax take, but, like many issues, I think we are comfortable in our fox holes. I have no time for the mindset of a bureaucrat and like forests too much to see them waste forests and eating donuts while I work until Tuesday afternoon each week to pay my government! So I’ll leave it there, mate!
Just Me
“Don’t complain about the public servants, or the PS bureaucracy, blame the government for requiring it and not funding the system properly.”
Sorry, a lame duck argument. Same argument can be used for pimps working down Kings Cross. Our public sector is large enough to swing governments without one other citizen changing a single mindset. You can’t work in a system, push the paper, take a snooze after lunch and say “it’s the government’s fault”. It’s the lowest common denominator, some people (I’d like to include me, when I was a PS) will always demand excellence and try to change the system, others (mostly) will cruise their way to retirement.
Both our parties are atrocious at calling the PS to account.
To be honest, it really amounts to theft. Other Australians work really hard so that (some) bureaucrats can either do very little or create meaningless work to justify their salaries. Yes it happens in private industry too, but the whole country doesn’t contribute to that, nor do they last forever in most companies. Jasmine made the point that the “dead wood” is put in a corner with a title generally with “strategic” in the title to keep them out of trouble. Exactly, thanks Jasmine, so why do we pay a cent EVER for deadwood. If they have that much time, they could join a centrelink queue (and probably have a job by 2019 or even earlier!!).
Chris, if you were in education, surely you remember that dark corner of the library where they store the dusty “Government information Packs”, with their glossy brochures, smarmy videos and (now defunct) helplines/websites that were bought with millions of taxpayer dollars for the latest initiative and were never once used in a classroom ever?
I do.
ALL pollies are liars. The point is not whether they lie but what is the effect of their lies. Howard is the only PM in recent history to lie about the reasons for going to war and therefore the reasons why our soldiers lives were put in danger. Rudd lies about seeing a pair of boobs at a strip club. Can you see the difference?
Glen, I sure you must have noticed that most of the left leaning and centre commenters on this, and all of the other blogs, can string an argument together, and spell drivel and hypocrisy and other hard words, while people like you, and the other Howard apologists, have trouble assembling your stream of self-contradictory garbage into meaningful sentences. The difference, it seems to me, is that we have the mental furniture to think for ourselves, arrive at logical conclusions based on the evidence, and express these opinions lucidly, and, on occasions, with wit. Whereas, you splutter and scrabble around, repeating the same monotonous untruths, so demonstrating the total bankruptcy of your intellectual foundation. Kevin Rudd is playing with your mind. Just imagine how John Howard feels.
cheers
Alan H
Glen you’re right. All politicians lie. It’s when the public get sick of one group of people lying to them and can’t distinguish truth from lies that it’s time for them to go. Then we can get lied to by another group of people until we get sick of that.
If we’re talking about P Keating being too gutless to initiate the GST, Howard was too gutless to initiate a lot of reform when he was Treasurer in the Frazer Government.
No, I don’t accept that all politicians are liars. Howard is a liar in a class of his own. However I don’t agree with Paul K about Iraq. I think Howard believed what he was told by Bush about Iraq’s WMD. After all, Rudd also said that Iraq had WMD. I think the villain in that story is Ahmed Chalabi, a Cheney protege, who cooked up fake info about Iraq’s WMD and fed it to the CIA, in the hope that Cheney would put him in power in Iraq after the invasion. Cheney also bullied the CIA into giving him the “facts” he wanted, which he then used to fool Bush (not hard), and also Powell, Blair, Howard and many others. Chalabi and Cheney ought to be on trial for war crimes – the crime of provoking a war. Bush is too stupid to bother with. Blair and Howard were duped.
Glenn won’t be around after the election results come in. He won’t be game to pop his head up. Then in January the big one starts. Heres a very good site for those that want to follow the US election. The owner is a Democrat. But he correctly predicted the two Bush victories. This might be a good link to have on this site permanently.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
I just saw the snippets of Kevin Rein’s press conference from today aired the 7:30 report, done on the edge of some highway somewhere, I presume near Sydney
It was truely appalling, ….just woeful…..he had to shout to be heard and came across as desperate. ON the few occasions when you could hear him properly, all he was saying was ” I agree with John Howard on APEC” or “I would do exactly the same as John Howard is doing….”
He appeared and sounded like a desperate man. Very out of character with his slick media persona to date.
Putting my own politics aside, whoever was responsible for this incompetent piece of image-making for Labor needs to be re-assigned.
It was totally against the play….
Paul K (OK I’ll say this and get painted as a Howard Lover but I’ll say it anyway).
I don’t know whether Howard DID lie about Iraq and I don’t know that you do either.
I suspect not, however. Think about it. It was a VERY unpopular decision (on polling, worse than Workchoices is now) and if he KNEW there were no WMDs when he called it… what a twit.
You invade, you don’t find WMDs and you have to explain it. You cannot have it both ways, Howard cannot be “mean and tricky” and make a stupid blunder like this knowingly.
It is a sensationalist thing to say. I’m sure they fudge the truth at times but this really doesn’t stack up. More likely, the “junior partner” in this foolhardy war was not privy to intelligence. I also think he has done the honourable thing in this complex situation with egg over his face for over three years now. The simplest political thing to do would have been to pull out and let it all fade away. Credit to him, he has stuck with it and worn the flak all this time. Poor decision? Yes. Lies? I think not.
The polling I’ve seen is 70% against the IR and 60% against Iraq. To keep on topic I think the poll will be no change.
The key Howard lie about Iraq was his denial that he had made a decision to join ‘The Coalition of the Gullible’.
At a press conference in Washington on 9 October 2003, when asked directly wheteher he had decided to jioin the coalition, he said “..Look, there have been contingency discussions going on between the American and the Australian military and it’s always important in these situations to leave those sorts of things to the militaries of the two countries.”
On the following day at a joint Bush-Howard press conference in the Oval Office, the following exchange took place:
Journalist: “Could you tell us whether you count Australia as part of the coalition of the willing?”
President Bush: “Yes, I do”.
A direct barefaced lie, by Howard.
cheers,
Alan H
Funny, I saw the Rudd interview with highway background noise. Didn’t strike me as particularly negative or positive. Probably just good for Rudd to keep his face in front of the camera while APEC is on even if it just to repeat some messages or just a little insert. Product recognition/reminder.
#271 I don`t think anyone has ever suggested that the Whitehouse knew there weren`t WMD`s in Iraq. What many people have suggested is that they thought there were, told us all they KNEW there were, concocted/cherrypicked/were spoonfed some soon to be refuted evidence to prove this, and passed it on to the public as fact.
If WMD`s had appeared as they expected, no-one would have disputed their initial claims. The fact is they didn`t surface and their claims of surety were shown to be what they always were – untruths.
That`s my take. Anyway, back to the polls…
Chris hey ill still be around if we lose god the Liberals will need some/any support if they get pumped come November…anyway if it happens they’ll be alot of change happening and alot to debate on the poll bludger…
Im sure if it does happen you will all have a laugh at my, steve and nostros expense but either way the election goes lets not go nuts…most of us should have another good 50 years of life left in us so thats ummmm another 18 elections at the least…
I dont think you can say Howard lied about Iraq he was getting info from the US, Russians and Brits which said he had them so its not his fault they all stuffed it up is it….still im glad Saddam is dead at least something good can come out of Iraq…
Adam and GO,
Howard lied about Iraq. Whether he believed that WMDs were in Iraq or not is irrelevant. He didn’t care if they had WMDs or not. His lies went far beyond WMDs. I don’t want to rehash old arguments about Iraq but he told many lies about Iraq, not just about WMDs.
Re: the Iraq decision being popular or not. They thought the war would be over in six weeks and that the people of Iraq would welcome them with roses and kisses. So they ignored popular opinion. They thought they end up being heroes.
Twas the night before Newspoll, and all over the nation
The bloggers were goggling in anticipation
Of a new poll, a Newspoll, the psephologists’ grail,
Which appears every fortnight, Monday night without fail.
The bloggers were placing their bets one and all:
The two-party vote, would it rise, would it fall?
Would it hit 55, 56, 57?
Would it move towards John, would it move back to Kevin?
I thought we weren’t discussing foreign affairs anymore.
Saddam, and what, a few hundred thousand other people? You bloody beauty!
Ollie, you are in no position to tell me that I should ban Glen or anyone else. Your comments are in no way superior to his. In fact, I just had to delete one of your comments because it consisted entirely of abuse with no political content. I don’t ever recall having the same issue with him (that’s not to say it hasn’t happened, just not in the past week or two).
Every one seems to forget that Howard was a lawyer before entering politics and would therefore be well versed in the difference hearsay and proof and I clearly remember Howard stating that “I have sighted the proof”. Also, why do you think that the coalition of the drilling were in such a hurry to get Blix out of the country – before he could declare Iraq was free of WMD’s.
Tom.
Glen if you want to find about the real facts about your hero Howard, check out this site: http://howardfacts.com/index.php
Finally the ALP is going on the attack. Howard has been getting away with too many lies, spin, distortions and myths. Here are some hard cold facts.
Paul K
No. I stand by original comments. I can’t see evidence of lies and you know as much as we do through the media, so it sounds more like your bias presented as evidence.
I also dispute your assertion that a world leader can march into a war, for which the public has given no support and expect to be crowned a hero, whether it took six weeks or six days (as another unpopular war did in the late 60s). Just not plausible.
Love him or hate him (presumably the groundswell sentiment here) Howard is an ideologue and a strong leader, insofar as he has made some unpopular decisions and worn them.
I agree with Adam, he did honestly think he was doing the right thing and (like Blair) now regrets it.
What people seem to forget, is that it is the government’s job to be right on matters of such import. It’s not good enough to saythe information was wrong, this is a war, not buying someone new shoes.
It doesn’t matter why you thought you were shooting someone in the face, if people warn you you are wrong, and you are, and you then shoot him, it’s simply not good enough. Same goes for many of the other lies, or lack of information – At the end of the day, even if they are not actively malicious in their intent, it is their job to get decisions that cover matters as important as war, gross corruption, national policy, it is their job to know, or say they don’t know, not to pretend to have knowledge.
We seem to have reached a climate where corruption and evil is wrong, but incompetence is ok.
But coalition v Labor has always been competent evil vs incompetent good intentions, so wheeeee!
anyone want to guess the time newspoll will break in the thread?
Adam#278
Love ya work
Oops, should read “difference between hearsay and…”
10:34
Newspoll will break in this thread at 10:39pm
Lateline is at 10:36pm
I think that even many Liberals agree that a defeat may be the best way to save their party lurching over the edge. There is only so far you can stretch a rubberband to the right – it will either snap back or completely break. Another 3 years of Howardism and it will be more than a snap back.
My SO wants to go to bed early but I sooo want to catch Tony Jones!
GO,
Believe what ever you want. History won’t be as kind to Howard’s foreign misadventures as you are.
If you were the Govt how much would you pay for even a fake 53/47? It would be worth every cent for them.
Saw the Rudd kerbside interview too, looked tacky and cheap. He had to shout to be heard above the highway din..Probably should have kept his comments to the issue he went there for [a new tunnel on Kessels Road] and left the other stuff to later in the day elsewhere.
Still, its the only tacky, non air brushed presentation of Rudd I have seen so far.. it won’t do him any harm.
Paul K
Thanks for the invitation. I think I will believe what I think is reasonable, as will we all.
History is good at story-telling but I think she is more of a journalist than a judge
Kina the best option for a political party is just never to lose an election. I somehow doubt many LP supporters will be praying for an election loss.
Although I can’t imagine how boring it must be to be a government backbencher. All those Dorothy Dixers and “we are great” speaches make me hurl.
OLLIE, I think the roadside interview may be an attempt to counter the attacks that Rudd is just an image politician. Road says in touch with the average punters, and going somewhere (sorry about the pun).
I think history will be extremely scathing about Iraq but it will pin 90% of the blame on Cheney and his puppet Bush. I think it will conclude that Blair and Howard were duped. The problem with saying that Howard lied about Iraq’s WMD is that you then have to say that Blair lied too, and I don’t believe that. Blair’s problem was his messiah complex, not dishonesty.
That was my shortest post ever. Ooops, no, this is
Hi Kina,
ON any other news night, I might agree with you totally, but…
This is not just the night before newspoll, it is the night before APEC and background Brand or Product recognition is a pretty low target for a marketer from a press conference from the next PM of Australia
Tonight, Kevin Rein looked a long way away from the next PM of Australia.
The footage is going to get repeated again on all the late night news slots——
There was a brief glimpse of incompetence within the KR camp today, and I hope someone is held accountable before another mistake is made
I was a Liberal party supporter – but can’t be again until they come back to the center.
Dont forget the codes Glen @245. And………action.
Newspoll ALP 59/41 according to Lateline
59-41 Yahoo!!!!!
Newspoll details:
2PP
—-
ALP 59
Coalition 41
Christ Almighty…..
Newspoll:59-41 ALP
59%. It’s all over.
Goooo Rudd go Rudd go Rudd go Rudd goooooooo RUDD gooooooooo RUDD.
Holy Crap
Just saw it
59-41 Labor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I AM NOT KIDDING
Mr Squiggle I think most people have switched off of politics completely. I avoid political news like the plague now and I’m mostly interested.
The 6 months of campaigning is just dreadful. The most common comments I hear are “I wish he’d just call it already”. Therefore I doubt K. Rudd looking a little frazzled in an interview is going to do irreperable damage.
omg
DANCE DANCE DANCE DANCE DANCE
Wow. 59-41… even if that’s a 3 point outlier it’s huge :O
Newspoll 59-41 tpp to labour
Dang
6 people beat me!
Wow 59 to 41. Not a statistically significant change, but enough to make the govt panic.
Wow
59….UR KIDDING
Newspoll is a nightmare for the government – 59 – 41 TPP
Holy Crap that was completely unexpected
Glen you best go to bed mate, even you can’t weasle your way out of 59-41 mate, that is devastating. GOOD NIGHT GLEN and GOODBYE JWH.
Holy god. Probably an outlier, but if it’s not… If this is confirmed by other polls, if this happened at an election, there would not be a functional opposition.
That must be a Primary vote back up to 50%
Any predicitions on Shanahan’s headline for 59-41?
I notice Downer is scraping the absolute bottom of the barrel now. Saying Rudd is going around telling people he has already won the election in a landslide.
59/41 2pp – OUCH!
This is will set this site into meltdown. If 59-41 was the result on election day, how many seats would the ALP win?
We ain’t seeing an October election now…..
Take a trip to the nearest strip club Johnny – pronto!
Fantastic!
Boy, I am enjoying this!
5 & 9 the Muslim Jockey Klub or bust now…
Hmmm, maybe someone should deliver a pair of brown trousers to Kirabilli House.
PPM 48/37 I think
2PP 59-41
And right in the middle of APEC, too. The last Morgan was obviously trailer trash.
Possum – this might be the immolation point you speak of. When both Galaxy AND Newspoll are well in excess of 55-45, this means history is in the making.
Will APEC bring these numbers back for the Coalition, or will it make them worse?
More info….
PPM 48-37
No mention of the primary vote
Yay! 59-41!
it is statistically significant – a 4% change
No wonder Kerry wore a red tie and made a joke about Michael being an aspirational reporter. It might be an outlier – but what an outlier!
:]
Any news about ambulance making a bee-line to any APEC dinners?
Everybody take a chill pill and lie down. The election was not tonight. It may or may not be called in the next 6 weeks (I thought it would be, given Turnbull’s decision to delay on the pulpmill). Howard may still hold off and go for a mid-December election. And the campaign will still be brutal.
C’mon Glen – tell us it’s just another rogue poll, or do we need to adjust it by 15% because of pro Labor bias?
Well, Rudd better scrap the Kevin07 t-shirts. Looks like were going for a January 19th election.
I think I speak for everyone hear when I plead to Kevin Rudd:
Don’t stuff it up!
ALP 59 41 Coal
Don’t worry, it’s just another rogue poll
Well, my prediction (at #4) was “56-44, and panic stations for the government”. I am happy to concede my prediction was half wrong. He he he.
Im almost in stitches watching all you poll nerds cheer and celebrate one lousy poll of 2000 people. I think alot of you are setting yourself up for a mighty fall.
I’ve opened a new thread, so I’m closing this one.