‘Twas the night before Newspoll, and a new open thread was stirring.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
The night before Newspoll: episode two
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I saw Robert Manne, Judith Brett and Peter van Onselen at the Melbourne Writers’ festival on the weekend. Brett and van Onselen are convinced that Howard is going to lose, mainly because of Workchoices. van Onselen is predicting huge ructions in the Liberal Party afterwards as the wets finally payout on Howard and co.
I’m beginning to feel the love.
John Hewson? Alexander Downer? Tony Abbott?
Oh sorry, that was a rhetorical question…
Adam’s points are well made. Rudd has shown all year that when the attention is on him (even if it is negative), he performs well. Plenty of people I think are incorrectly assuming that Howard will come back during the campaign. Latham’s campaign was poor, particularly the complete failure to tackle the interest rate scare campaign
I think Rudd is going to win the campaign. Howard really needs to be in front at the start of the campaign. I think the only question will be, can Rudd win enough of the seats that count?
GO,
I see your point about bloated bureaucracy. It’s the same thing in unis; staff-student ratio blowing out at the same time that central admin is growing like the plague.
Anyway back to newpoll, my prediction is 54/46 – status quo.
I’d like to see some stats and facts on ‘Bloated Bureaucracy’ because it is an often repeated and challenged mantra. Again it is more of a bumper sticker but lets be frank only an a fool would expect ‘public service’ without a ‘public service’.
[Inflation still rising and interest rates tipped to rise sooner than later. Points to a short election campaign called soon to try to beat the expected rises.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22352907-462,00.html
I think this just rules out middle or late November. He could still call the election in late September, for an election day on November 3rd. Or the late option would be December 1st. I doubt he would want to go November 10th, 17th or 24th. The RBA announces their decisions on November 7th and December 5th.
http://www.rba.gov.au/EventsDiary/calendar_2007.html
Maybe this is all wrong, maybe Howard has research showing that interest rate rises help the government, making November 10 the perfect date.
With regard to polls, I wonder why the approach has not been taken that a lot of consumer groups take… having registered online surveys?
I do realise that you would not get a true representative sample, but there are debates that you do anyway. In addition, survey respondents get nothing for a FTF or Phone poll, so perhaps the answers aren’t as well thought out.
Instead, if, say a company like Morgan offered Australians to register (with their names and addresses like you do for an online marketing company, to avoid poll-stacking) and paid people $1-2 a poll, you could get results immediately, with a huge volume, at presumably lower cost.
You also tend to get more honest and thoughtful feedback online than over the phone (when your “down time” is being interrupted by a pesky pollster!!) Online surveys with invitations to mailboxes also give you some flexibility about when you reply to them.
Pollsters could also construct “representative invitations” for massive samples, based on pre-existing knowledge of demographics. You could even assess voter change over time.. how I feel now as opposed to last month.. the kind of longitudinal stuff you never get with standard polls.
Any thoughts?
I agree with jasmine (102).
G.O,
That’s what YouGov is planning to do very soon
Adam,
Couldn’t agree more.
It’s nonsense (and arrogant) to assume that the tories will automatically take votes off the ALP durng the election just because thats what happened last time. The tories have thrown the kitchen sink at him so far and nothing has worked, all Rudd has to do is appear positive, reassuring and keep repeating that line that ‘ the buck stops here’ (which is the most apparent difference in minds of the average punter to ‘everyone elses fault’ Howard) and he’s home and hosed.
Yes, there’s really no reason to suspect much will shift in the campaign. If anything, it will tend to focus voters’ minds – but in ways that reinforce current trends.
“Current trends” as far as I read them are:
- very high level of ‘decided’ swingers compared to previous elections
- major issues of IR, economy, climate change, health not working for government
- Libs having a hell of a time getting their primary above 41%.
- ALP primary on a solid base of 45+
- Tussle between ALP and Green for 2-3% primary above that
- Another 3-4% up for grabs betweren the majors. But the current ALP 2PP lead *could* even survive the (unlikely) loss of every vote in that category.
Paul Sheehan immediately after the 2004 election.
“On December 22, 2004 Howard will overhaul Bob Hawke as the second-longest serving leader in Australian history. This will leave him with only one achievable landmark: March 11, 2006, his 10th anniversary as PM. Later that year Howard, at age 66, will step aside for Costello, who will be only 49. Costello is already the most formidable performer in Federal Parliament….
As for Howard, he can begin to think about his legacy, which means he will be busier than ever. He has, at most, 24 months left. And there are clouds over his stewardship. Because of Howard’s adventure in Iraq, Australians are at greater risk of being murdered by medieval Islamic jihadists. And because he has not rung the alarm bell on Australia’s deteriorating landscape, if the wasting away continues to accelerate, broaden and worsen, Howard risks being seen, over time, as a leader who was inert at a time of an unfolding national crisis.”
And this from Alan Anderson (Ruddock advisor, amongst other, far right, things)
“A second crucial reform area is industrial relations. This is no time for half-measures. It is a once in a generation opportunity to reshape the nation’s legislative framework. A truly courageous Howard Government would abolish the antiquated award system and replace it with a simple minimum wage. What business is it of government to assess the economic value of different skills and trades? It would be consistent with Coalition principles – and Family First principles – to leave that decision to the market while maintaining a safety net based on people’s needs, not on an arbitrary government assessment of the “value” of their labour.”
They are so prescient, these commentators.
cheers, Alan H
Jasmine,
I agree with you on the public service. I don’t want to hijack this thread completely, so I will be brief. The Australian keeps repeating the mantra that the Labor states have squandered the GST rivers of gold on higher public sector wages because they are controlled by the unions. It has refused to publish my letters containing specific evidence to demolish this absurd claim. A teacher at the top of the scale in Victoria is paid $31,000 pa less relative to average male ordinary time earnings than in 1975. There are almost 2,000 fewer secondary teachers under Labor than were provided by Lindsay Thompson’s 1981 Liberal Government staffing ratio. Consequently, teaching loads and class sizes are higher. The government has comprehensively defeated teachers in the last two rounds of EBA negotiations.
Generic Oracle,
I read often of vague comments about how many administrators there are compared with front-line staff, but I suspect they are needed. Lots of administrators were cut out of the education department by both the Kennett and Bracks Governments, but all that has happened is that the work they used to do is no longer done at all or it has been transferred to the front-line staff – principals and teachers – in schools. This topic deserves a book, but I won’t get around to writing it till next year.
i took part in a phone poll a few weeks ago, i must admit i gave the first thing that came to mind, i’ve had heaps of angst over work choices because of it’s effect on my grandies, BUT not being given choices {i would have chosed WC’s if i had been} i said the first thing that popped into my head when asked what i considered important, the other questions were just factual ones, like who i voted for in 1994, who i’m voting for this time, is there a chance i would change my mind and how old i was, actually i nearly hung up in the beginning thinking it was one of those pesky ads, when i first answered the phone a tinny robotic voice told me there was an important announcement followed by a blast of music and THEN the questioner, surely they could do better than that!
This debate re the “bloated bureaucracy” is so old fashioned and politically counterproductive for the right wingers. Peter Debnam tried this tactic and was soundly beaten.
The voters aren’t stupid, if any conservative mentions the phrase “bloated bureaucracy” they know it’s code for slashing even more govt services, when the voters want more from govt not less.
Adam I strongly disagree with your comment at 95. On line 8 I would have had Tampa before 9/11.
I think Rudd will win the debate easily as well.
Newspoll 56/44.
Also, Hugh Mackay on the Monday after the election:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/10/1097346697099.html?from=storylhs
I agree that the assumption that the Coservatives will improve over the campain is questionable.
Over the past three months the govt has run a huge advertising campain (at tax payer expense) and this has had a surprisingly modest effect – particularily given the ALP have barely spent a dollar on advertising over the same period.
Once the campain start the Govt free adverting has to stop and the ALP’s campain will start.
Also, I think Rudd will campain well and is essentially just a lot more, reasoned, reasonable and likable than Howard.
I think the election is a long way from over but automatic assumption that it will tighten from here may not be correct. The largest ever ALP vote could be on the way – it’s there for the taking in the campain.
The government will go negative like the Latham L plate campaign. But it seems most people think Rudd will go OK as P.M., so it will just be seen as negative and carping, when the government should be outlining what they intend to do in the next term. The trouble is they’ve already privatised Tel$tra, so they can’t talk about that.
Hey Oakshot, I presume you mean Soviet history. . . Georgian Djugashvilii aka ‘Stalin’ ?
I have to draw your attention to Alan Ramsey’s thoughts on the election outcome. Ramsey is the Sydney Morning Herald political commentator he writes insightful and thought provoking columns and really knows his history. His final words in his column on Saturday were: “Kevin Rudd will be Prime Minister by Christmas. Bet on it!”
Ramsey said the same about Latham.
Election campaigns (IMO) are just about reinforcing the public perception that already exists. For example in 2004 both the ALP and Coalition campaigns seemed to complement each other perfectly – The Coalition ran ads saying Latham and labor can’t be trusted on the economy, Latham is ‘untried’ ‘untested’ ‘not ready’ ‘makes policy on the run’. At the same time Latham was doing exactly what the Coaliton wanted him to do which was to ‘make policy on the run’ – thus reinforcing the already held perception.
What is the public perception in 2007? ‘Time for a change’, ‘Howard is out of touch’ ‘Generational change’ – all Labor has to do is reinforce this perception and the result may already be a forgone conclusion.
Having said this I have just eaten chocolate, so my elevated serotonin could be giving me an inflated sense of optimism.
It seems Kath & Kim have deumped on Howard re Workchoices.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfYFPZirMvc
First Mcleods Daughters, now this – oh those Marxist, commo TV Writers
KATH: “Oh bloody Howard! I’d like to take away his toot breaks and see how he feels in his jolly lower house.”
Ha ha
Now will the coalition make the same mistake and complain about it – thereby ensuring it gets maximum air time.
simonr says at post 101:
“I saw Robert Manne, Judith Brett and Peter van Onselen at the Melbourne Writers’ festival on the weekend. Brett and van Onselen are convinced that Howard is going to lose, mainly because of Workchoices. van Onselen is predicting huge ructions in the Liberal Party afterwards as the wets finally payout on Howard and co.
I’m beginning to feel the love.”
While I’d like to think that the Libs will do a bit of deep soul searching after the fall and think about who they are and what they stand for, I somehow doubt that this will take place in the short to medium term.
Look at the State Liberals: A bigger bunch of unelectable wackos and religious nut jobs would be harder to find.
They should have romped it-in in the last NSW and Qld elections, but failed miserably. Why?
Well, it certainly wasn’t because the immense popularity of the State Labor governments they were challenging. They should have been easy meat.
No, it was because of their own unpopularity and un-electability.
That fact is that rather then embarking on a bit of self-examination and seeking to deal with the hard questions of what kind of party they wished to be and exactly what they stood for (philosophically and politically) after their previous losses, they just decided to punt for more of the same.
Rather than attempting to re-align themselves in the middle ground and get back to their small “l” roots, they positioned themselves at the Neo-Con ratbag end of the spectrum, every time.
Maybe this is Howard’s real legacy.
The State Liberal Parties couldn’t re-make themselves as small “l” types, so long as he occupied the wingnut fringe with his mate George Bush at a Federal level.
Well, hopefully, that’s about to change.
With Howard and the Federal Liberals gone, maybe they will (at last) do the necessary. Still, I doubt it will happen quickly.
They’ll probably elect some ex-Howard minister (like Costello or Abbott or-heaven forbid-Ruddock) as Opposition leader in the short to medium term and have to take a caning or two in successive Federal elections before they do any real thinking.
I hope they get back to what they once were: a wide church centrist outfit. However, I expect that this will take a lot of time.
They’ve got a helluva lot of baggage to ditch first.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22352973-12377,00.html
Survery re APEC.
Chris & Cortexvortex
Whilst I appreciate your comments, they miss the subtle difference in what I believe to be the root causes of our bureaucratic dilemma:
1. Chris, my beef is not with the extent of wages/claims with the Public Servant spend, it is with the sheer number employed, particularly “Behind the Curtain”. The Law of bureaucracy states that the number of near-meaningless activities will swell to fill the bureaucratic budget allocated. Before you know it, we all believe that it is necessary simply “because it is already there”. This is not expected in any other sphere of the community.
2. CV: Again, your comment exposes the idea that the relationship between bureaucracy and productivity is linear. I dispute this. Cutting jobs, does not necessarily mean cutting services, particularly if there is present ambiguity or overlap of governmental responsibility.
Here is an example:
When I came back from overseas, I applied for Centrelink for the first time ever, very eye-opening. I spent 2 hours on the phone in interviews with Families and then with Centrelink proper, filled in over 40 pages of forms, brought those in and had another one hour interview, where the bureaucrat entered in all my details (now for a fourth time) whilst I dictated. I had to bring in no fewer than 8 documents, a letter from a real estate agency, tax information and current bank statements. I had to ask her to repeat herself several times as I couldn’t hear over the general murmur of “desk stop visits”, coffee in hand.
I was then referred to a job seeking agency and did it all over again (graciously, it took 15 minutes there).
All in all, about 12 hours of “work”. I found myself a job in half an hour in the paper on the weekend and had the job by Friday. Then I spent another 8 hours trying to cancel the payments and stop the process. They overpaid me and eight months later, five letters, two phone calls and a personal visit later, they docked the amount from my tax return and I felt very relieved about our wonderful “safety net”!!!
Are you saying, in this age, that we couldn’t have done all that in less time, with less red tape?? I beg to differ. Sure I’m glad the services are there but I no longer resent the unemployed for sucking our tax, I resent each “go slow” bureaucrat costing 5 times as much.
Michael and Simon, (#122,& #123), Ramsay also predicted a Hewson win in 1993. I’d suggest Alan hates incumbent PM’s so much that he also tips against them, is spite of better judgement.
Chris, 114. Good point on salaries, the NT Little Children are Sacred report noted that the NT government struggles to attract police because salaries are uncompetitive.
Albert F Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 2:36 pm
I’ll bet the Govt’s ABC Attack dog will get all confuse and think the show is still on Aunty, and blame it on those evil lefties who have taken over the ABC – despite the fact that the show is on CH 7, owned by a major donor to the Liberal Party’s 500 club
Albert F at #119 said: “Once the campain start the Govt free adverting has to stop”
Is there something to prevent the government from continuing their taxpayer-funded ads once the election is called?
Hi Penriff ( I am an old Orchard Hills boy), Yes the Russian for “man of steel” is Stalin.
Evan (128),
“Look at the State Liberals: A bigger bunch of unelectable wackos and religious nut jobs would be harder to find. ”
Oh this is so true
…… Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland are the worst 
….. soon, oh so very soon, the Feberal Libs will find themselves in a not dissimilar position 
….. seeing as how the opinion polls are showing the government is looking down the barrels of sizeable loss, Howard could be leading the Federal Libs into the same black hole …
RX,
“Albert F at #119 said: “Once the campain start the Govt free adverting has to stopâ€
Is there something to prevent the government from continuing their taxpayer-funded ads once the election is called?”
I am not an expert on the laws or rules regarding this, have only been resident in Oz for 3 years. But using a calculated guess, I would say that it is because the government doesn’t then technically exist since things are in “caretaker” mode. Since they aren’t a government anymore and have been dissolved by the GG, they can’t use taxpayer funded monies and must use party coffers.
RX not that I know of. I remember those stupid terrorism hotline ads running well into the last week of the ‘04 campaign.
Saw the financial data above, which doesn’t include the effects of the last (August
interest rate rise. More than one Australian lender has already come out and said that the lender’s margins (difference between the cost of bank lending and the rate they charge borrowers) may need to increase due to the increased cost of money. That is, rates may rise even if the RBA does nothing.
Furthermore, the real possibility of a moderate recession in the United States raises the very real likelihood that Australia’s inflation issues will be sorted out by decreases in international demand, in the medium term. The RBA will at least want to see the effect of the most recent rise before deciding what, if anything, to do next.
With this in mind, the RBA is very unlikely to raise interest rates, unless some quite remarkable inflation figures are delivered for the September quarter. The likelihood of an interest rate rise before next year is less than 20%.
I still think 1 December. Howard doesn’t need to go earlier and he won’t go at all with the poll numbers where they are at the moment.
I think Howard can live with Rudd (and the lesser performing shadows) going around the country talking about delaying the election date. It gives scope for making the ALP look like a carping Crean-like opposition rather than the almost statesmanlike Rudd-led opposition. Howard could also turn that sort of talk around to making the ALP, rather than himself, look desperate.
It stands to reason that the Government will claw back support during the Campaign. Through their advertisements (if nothing else) they will finally be able to get their message out there – something that they’ve failed to do this year due being overwhelmed by a brilliant media campaign by Rudd and also a somewhat hostile media who themselves would not mind seeing a fresh landscape.
GO
I think one of the main reasons bureaucracy has swelled has been because of increasing amounts of paperwork. Ask teachers, police, lecturers etc how much time they spend on paperwork now compared with 10 years ago.
Sorry Greg? I don’t quite understand why it’s inevitable that their message will somehow get through during the campaign. I suppose you must be in the Tony Abbot “the public is sleep-walking” school of thought.
I suppose it’s a lot easier for you to assume that the problem the Coalition is facing is not of their making at all. It’s all down to that mean, nasty Kevin Rudd and the ‘hostile media’. Not to worry though, the public will see the light!
AK you are correct, my GP says he will be voting Labor this year for the first time. Because he spends his one day off a week filling in paperwork for the Federal Govt.
Caretaker conventions 6.1
News from the front in marginal Stirling, WA
Michael Keenan – pushing climate change. His flyer came out days after Garrett and Peter Tinley a hosted climate change meeting in electorate, I couldn’t attend, despite it being in the next street. My neighbour went along, she thought about 200 people attend, I guess they invited thousands along.
Is it worth the Libs running climate change, haven’t the ALP stolen a march on this issue??
On a positive note for Keenan, it was nice to see him address a national issue, rather than talking local council issues like graffiti.
Josh,
I’m with you. December 1 is the go (still a chance for nov 24, but i don’t think so). Howard will try to use the October sitting weeks to get some traction in the polls before calling it. October sitting weeks finish on 20 October – writs could be issued 29 October for a 1 December poll – gives Howard more time to grind Rudd down, find a legislative wedge to implement in the October sittings, make himself look more in control by passing some legislation and keep his fingers crossed just a wee bit longer. Having said that, Howard is the ultimate opportunist and if he sees an advantage pop up, he’ll run with it – first pick: 1 December – second pick: 24 November.
Anyone else?
I have finally figured Greg out, he is from Bizarro
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bizarro
where everything is the opposite of what it is here on Earth. On Bizarro, apparently, the entire Chodrum press is on the side of the evil Durr Nivek, and poor Drawoh Nhoj can’t get a word in sideways. On Bizarro, it seems that Senoj Nala and Enlim Nelg are shameless media whores for Nivek, and slander the virtuous Nhoj all the time. Also, it is the Bizzaro Rabol Party which has been soaking the media with taxpayer-funded propaganda all year, leaving the poor Larebils defenceless.
Gap narrowing?
Until the 1987 election, it was fairly true to say that the Coalition made gains during an election campaign (about 1% per week). Several subsequent elections (including 2001- oh yes!) put paid to that idea. One cannot even say these days that a Government usually gains at the expense of an Opposition during the campaign.
I nearly fell off my chair when I read this (from Greg): “Through their advertisments… they will finally be able to get their message out there – something that they’ve failed to do this year due being overwhelmed by a brilliant media campaign by Rudd…”
Whaddya talking about? We’ve been BOMBARDED with government advertising. What about those non-stop WorkChoices ‘infomercials’!? (The ‘mute’ button on my remote control is almost worn down to a nubbin!)
Yes I know these aren’t OFFICIALLY Liberal party election ads. And I know the IR policy is not called ‘WorkChoices’ any more. But call me a diehard cynic, but these IR ads look like, sound like and smell like political advertising. The govt “media campaign” is in full swing – and my taxes are paying for it. I’m guessing yours are too. Yes, the union commercials are just as bad (also a job for the ‘mute’ button) – but it’s the unions who are paying for those ads, not me.
Greg: If the Howard government can waste $2 billion on ads, including $800 million recently with no pickup in their vote, no amount of wasting our money can give them any hope.
You just need to look at the workchoices ad debacle and look at all that wasted taxpayers money the government could be putting instead wasting by putting into useless funds, when there is critical infrastructure that needs building.
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