‘Twas the night before Newspoll, and a new open thread was stirring.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
The night before Newspoll: episode two
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The election will be in late October – inflation figures due out then, sure to be interest rate rise in November
Alex,
George Megalogenis just said the same thing. You’re in good company.
I see your logic, but i think Howard will gamble on interest rates staying stable for the rest of ‘07. Either way, I guess we’ll find out before too long, eh?
I hope G Megalogenis is right. The sooner the better. Then I can get on with my other life!
Strippergate seems such a long time ago! Wonder what Dolly will make of this? One’s trash is another’s treasure.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22353912-12377,00.html
Optimist (146)
“Having said that, Howard is the ultimate opportunist and if he sees an advantage pop up, he’ll run with it – first pick: 1 December – second pick: 24 November.
Anyone else?”
I don’t care to guess too much about dates the election will be held, I am not very good at that [witness my poor record in tipping this footy season
]. However, I believe that the window is something like 33 to 68 days for the campaign. Could be off by a number or two on those, but to the point :
No matter when the election is actually held, I think that it will be called pretty much after APEC, perhaps at the end of the September parliament sitting dates. If he does that : a minimum campaign would take in the late October favored date and a maximum campaign runs into a late November election date. That way, he gets away from the constant cry of “when, when, when?” by everyone that is sure to start up the drum roll as soon as the last dignitary clears out of town up here in Sydney. We have had a phony election campaign since very early this year anyways, why not make it official?
My money is going on the date that the election is **called**, not what date it is actually held – September 20, last date of the Parliament sitting.
Film on TV news of Sydney. It looks like the wall between East and West Berlin during the Cold War. All the stations are predicting traffic chaos. The thing I didn’t think of is that instead of the Networks leading their nightly news programs with shots of Howard playing the world statesman, they’re more likely to lead with frustrated and angry Sydney commuters. So much for the Government being able to control the news cycle.
So long as the ferals don’t start a riot and actually kill or seriously injure someone, then the issue will become law ‘n’ order, which would be a distraction.
Question: will the police be able to use their horses for crowd control, or are they quarantined? I have fond memories of being trodden on by one at an anti-Springbok demo in 1971 (the only thugby match I have ever attended by the way).
Julie,
don’t know that i can agree there.
I see your point about him avoiding the “when, when, when” but I’m inclined to think that Howard wants to leave open the opportunity to make up more ground. The Government has tried everything but the kitchen sink and i can see them standing in the chamber in October to say…”Mr Speaker, I rise today to commend to the House the 2007 Kichen Sink Amendment.”
Just my take on it.
( 98
Adam Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Howard has fought five elections. )
Adam, I agree with your post about Howard’s real popularity. I think the real base line for working out which seats are marginal is not the 2004 election but the 2001 election. Take the Latham effect out of the picture and a lot more seats are marginal than most people assume.
Adam, there have been more than a few rumours around Sydney over the last week that the Equine Flu outbreak and APEC are semi-related. There have been some suggestions put about that EI was deliberately let loose at Centennial Park as that’s also very close to the police horse centre in Surry Hills (about 1km away), and so would adversely affect the cops’ preparations for crowd control at APEC. Personally I don’t think these rumours are true, but that’s never stopped me before from spreading juicy rumours.
A little something for us from Salon.com:
Rove ran around in September and October of 2006 insisting that the Republicans would win the midterm election. His certainty of victory was so great, including in private, that even the GOP establishment began whispering, with increasing anger, that he was delusional. His political strategy proved to be as inept as his predictions, as his political party suffered a crushing defeat of historic proportions in that election.
No police horse patrols will be used at APEC because of the horse flu outbreak. Not only are the horses within the Randwick lockdown area (10k radius I think) [although they aren't housed at Randwick directly], middle to late last week several of them actually came down with it themselves. Quarantine procedures say 30 days from the last verified case, so if they get it in tandem rather than all at once, they might not be using mounted police for anything in Sydney for months …..
158
Optimist Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 4:48 pm
“Julie, don’t know that i can agree there.
I see your point about him avoiding the “when, when, when†but I’m inclined to think that Howard wants to leave open the opportunity to make up more ground. The Government has tried everything but the kitchen sink and i can see them standing in the chamber in October to say…â€Mr Speaker, I rise today to commend to the House the 2007 Kichen Sink Amendment.†Just my take on it. ”
If that comes to pass, then take the video clip of parliament that day and submit it to Funniest Home Videos ;-D ………
Wide Bay just got a bit messy. High profile former ALP state member for Noosa Kate Malloy will run as an independent – in a new Bob Katter political “movement”.
Although wide bay looks safe it did go to preferences last election. Warren Truss may be a little concerned about this. The Katter factor may swing votes from him to Malloy.
After the redistribution Noosa is now in wide bay. One to watch.
Still don’t think the ALP can win Wide Bay. The state govt’s Traveston Dam proposal is very unpopular, might be the only seat in the state that records a swing to the Coalition.
(in a new Bob Katter political “movementâ€)
A new version of the DLP?
Shrek has responded to the Kath and Kim episode. I hope that means it gets a run on the news, or at least on channel 7:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22354516-5005962,00.html
Timbo my point exactly, Truss may lose votes to Malloy who has campaigned on the dam and amalgamation. Thus splitting the coaltion vote.
Not saying Labor will win, but it just got interesting.
I dont have Wide Bay even on my wish list, lol. I am more concerned about Longman, Petrie, Blair and Hinkler staying with the Composition due to the amalgamations fiasco. I
m hoping something else will be paramount in the swingers minds in those seats come election day; maybe promises to issue Barbara Streisand CDs to every electorate that stays with the Coalition; that oughta make them forget about amalgamations and preserve their property values instead.
The amalgamation votes are going to be held on October 20, I doubt Howard will want to go that early. So it will be all forgotten about a couple of weeks after then.
If the Libs lose the election we’ll be hearing that phrase “bloody Howard” a lot from conservatives.
The amalgamation plebicites will be a postal vote, most people will throw them in the bin as junk mail.
Not sure what Bob Katter’s political movement could be called with Monster Raving Loony Party already taken.
Yeah the hubby took a toilet break on the shop floor on Cath n Kim. Very political statements made last night by those 2.
It will be totally lame. They’ll get 30% of people responding, out of those a majority will probably say amalgamations are bad. Then they will claim that that is some definitive proof that the amalagamations shouldn’t go ahead, when most people couldn’t care less.
The feds are not alone on spending vast amounts of money on advertising. The Victorian Labor government has been shameless on adds touting what they’ve done, or what they have failed to do. No one has yet questioned how much advertising money was spent on the Water adds starring Steve Bracks. They went down the dunny with his resignation.
“Question: will the police be able to use their horses for crowd control, or are they quarantined? ”
See Bruce Petty’s take in today’s Age.
Newspoll? My expectation is 56-44. Given my expectation last time was 57-43 and it came out 56-44, that means it’ll probably come out 55-45.
the ‘bloody howard’ line featured in an earlier K&k series when Kel was trying to calculate the GST on a gourmet sausage.
Big ears should have the Newspoll result for the 7.30 report, Im sticking with a hope for 57-43 and reality 56-44 guesstimate. Get your final bids in now.
Who is more pathetic? Dolly Downer or Hockey? Something for us to ponder.
Greg: even more Howard government propoganda advertising on the way? How can I contain my excitement? Thank god for remote controls.
I’ll be pessimistic and go for 54-46, but I bet I’m very wrong.
Ruawake (sounds like an hawaiian island rather than a question),
I’ve never entertained the possibility of a Labor win there, but a high profile indy does complicate the situation. Isn’t Gympie the last remaining hotbed of one Nation? I wonder if they’ll put up a candidate also.
Spoke with the brother of balackburnpseph last week – he is resident in the electorate of Leichhardt FNQ. He is pleased by the council amalgamations but mentioned that the locals in his part of the world are not keen on the Beattie govt, and though they don’t mind Rudd, don’t want a Labor government at both levels, and hence will vote against KR.
Katter’s party is indeed the DLP – the Delusional Loony Party. If Molloy (note spelling) has got in bed with Katter (politically speaking), she is even sillier than I thought, and nearly as silly as her husband, Ivan “Milat” Molloy who was such a brilliant candidate for Fairfax last time (he of the MNLF photo, remember?). Katter has tried this before, don’t forget, and his candidates came nowhere.
blackburnpseph,
Wouldn’t it be a tragedy if the weakness of the Libs is what keeps them in power.
Timbo says:
The last remaining hotbed of One Nation is the seat of Tablelands west of Cairns. It lies within the Federal electorate of Kennedy.
Labor isn’t going to win Leichardt or Wide Bay.
Reported on PM that Howard will discuss “intelligence” matters with Bush during APEC. That’s really, really funny. “I’ll show you mine if …”
Ah yes a survey with a sample size of 1. Now that’s what I call reliable.
Jule @ 136:
If the Libs do get whacked then the members for Hillsong (ie. Markus, Morrison and Hawke) will make up a fair proportion of the Lib caucus. They will drift off to rabid right irrelevance.
Alan Ramsay gets up every morning, eats half a dozen lemons for breakfast, takes an hour long bath in his own bile and then sits and contemplates the half empty glass all day.
He can only see the worst in people and is a person who has gone sour because he has been around too long.
He also hitched his mast to Latham and has been trying to find excuses (other than the fact that the guy was a psycho) ever since.
Late mail from the punters – every so slight drift towards the ALP over the weekend. What does it mean? – not much except that the balance of expectation is for a 55/45 newspoll.
Interesting to see what spins out if its a long way from this. I get the sense that Howard is hoping to make some in-roads and call the election whilst still basking in the world leader glow from APEC. A poor poll here could sink that little plan.
I’ll go with 56-44.
whatever the poll, say he will still call it.
Cmon election and qld plebescites on the same day is just too tempting.
57.5/42.5 Oct 13 if Guy Fawkes comes to APEC. If not, Dec. 1.
‘Bush’ and ‘intelligence’ used in the same sentence? Hmm, must be a first.
Apparently the Police don’t like people taking photos of the fence in Sydney. I guess we’ll soon need a fence around the fence.
If Katter has recruited an ex-Labor MP for Wide Bay, wouldn’t that split the Labor vote, rather than the coalition vote? I can’t see Wide Bay voting for anyone but the Nats. I am descended from Gympie stock, and they have always been convinced that the ALP was a communist front.
Interestingly, Katter would probably lose his own seat of Kennedy to the Nats if the ALP gave the Nats its preferences. But they won’t. Unlike the Victorian seat of Shepparton, where Labor preferenced the Nats (I think) to help the win the seat against an independent, whom Labor accused of being a “Liberal stooge”.
The Victorian state situation has also put a thought into my mind, which I haven’t seen debated on this site. If the coalition loses the election, will the Federal Nats split from the coalition and go it alone, as they have done in some states?
Say what you like about Katter but I reckon he’s good entertainment value. Always gives us our monies worth in laughs. The only other one who gives us more laughs would be Downer. Now if you could get them both together in a TV sitcom you’d have a hit. Dumb and Dumber Down Under.
‘I am descended from Gympie stock, and they have always been convinced that the ALP was a communist front’.
OMG They’re on to us.
ABC News appears not to be showing anything on tomorrow’s poll. They sailed through all of the APEC crap with not a mention of it. Good to see Rudd got some air time in all of that, however, condemning violent protests.
I still think it’ll be 57-43. Of interest will be the preferred PM and primary vote numbers.
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