‘Twas the night before Newspoll, and a new open thread was stirring.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
The night before Newspoll: episode two
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Wide Bay now includes Noosa, Kate Malloy was kicked out of the Labor party.
If she takes votes it will be from Truss, people will think they are voting against the dam and amalgamation but all they will do is make Truss nervous.
If Labors primary vote can get above 33% it will be fun.
Interestingly, Bob Katter’s father was a member of the ALP and he is of Lebanese descent.
57 – 43
Katter was at U of Q at the same time as I was. Mad as a cut snake then as now. Cerainly provided as much fodder for satire, mirth for us loony lefties, as he does now. There’s a mate in FNQ who has a theory about the politics of FNQ, which goes like this: the squattocracy, and anyone else who could afford it, send their children off to boarding schools, where they mix with the like minded mostly. The brighter of them decide the back blocks aren’t for them when they get to Uni and marry each other, usually never going back permanently; the dimmer of them have simply been left at home or have to go back home where they then interbreed with each other, thus accounting for the collective IQ and voting of FNQ. The USA has its deep south, we have our deep north. I’m going 55/45 for Newspoll. Still think what I’ve read on all the psephology sites that have some gravitas, that the die is cast.
Why wouldn’t Kate Molloy pick up Labor votes, from Labor supporters who don’t want the Traveston Dam? Why would non-Labor voters switch to her, if they had Katter and a Nat to vote for?
Not being in Queensland (though desended from banana benders) though, I don’t know the lie of the land. Where do Katter and truss stand on the traveston dam?
Sorry ignore my previous post. Was sipping red wine at the time. Remove the words “Katter and” from the second and fourth lines of post no 205!
The fourth line on my screen does not have “Katter and” so I removed “Queesland” and replaced it with “Redneck heavan and god’s waiting room”
- it all makes sense now
55-45
No mention in the 730 Report either. Maybe the GG is a bit jealous of the ABC getting an early scoop. Curses! It really is getting like the night before Christmas. Can’t stand the suspense. We’ll really have to get a life soon!
The worst of it is that, even though he seems doomed, the Old Rodent is probably in his element. He’s really an electioneering nerd.
More ‘me-tooism’ from Kevin Rudd, if i were PM id do everything the same as Howard at APEC wow what vision from Rudd (did you hear him yelling who was the idiot who decided to do a media stump on the side of a highway????)
I can tell you one thing Howard did not engage during the 1996 in this gutless ‘me-tooism’ politics that Rudd is engaged in atm at least in 1996 Howard stood for something…if Rudd’s going to win he’s got to tell us what he’ll do with the economy in particular…ignoring it and hoping it will go away wont change the fact that the election will come down to economic management…
I thought Rudd would know better as an ex employee of DFAT that to get a binding agreements on emission targets is not possible to achieve the best result we can hope for is a binding a commitment to cut emissions but not with binding targets that would ruin some developing countries…Rudd wants us to sign up to Kyoto when there are no targets for developing countries…
Typical Michael Brissenden on 7:30 report tonight…another Rudd supporter and future ALP federal candidate who so candidly said Howard would get no benefit whatsoever from APEC if that’s the case ill eat my hat!
Lateline should have the results of the Newspoll 2.5hours to go everybody is Howard coming back again or is he on the ropes once again…time will tell…
prediction:
ALP 54
Coalition 46
Probably be 55-45 again. If it moves any further towards Labor, it really is all over. Sales of valium will be up for the next couple of months.
Generic Oracle (130),
I could say a lot more, but really this blog is about Newspoll, so I will leave it with this: There are inefficiencies in the public sector, but no more than tin the private sector if what I have experienced is any guide. The public sector that I worked in, that of schools, was full of incredibly hard-working people. The inefficiencies actually increased as it was forced to adopt the jargon and weird ways of the private sector.
John Howard will gain nothing from meeting with world leaders at APEC. He may gain something from the violent antics of the ferals if they can be associated in the public mind with the Labor Party. You can be sure that Kevin Rudd will effectively limit the Labor connection with any disruptive or violent behaviour. The more Greens signs and the fewer Labor ones at the protests, the better for the Labor Party!
Alan Ramsay’s glass doesn’t stay half-empty for long, if you know what I mean.
It amazes me you dummies out there dont’ even realise that while you guys are bickering over a poll that is due to come out that it doesn’t really make any difference. no one knows until the day of the election what will happen. GET OVER IT!!! GET ON WITH LIFE!!!
That post was an example of one of your poorer efforts.
Howard went ME TOO on nearly EVERYTHING that Keating said! Where did he differ? I guess on I.R. (which the average Joe hates), and he wanted to privatise Telstra, that was about the only difference. He knew that after 13 years, Keating was out of puff, Rudd realises the same is happening with Howard.
“wow what vision from Rudd (did you hear him yelling who was the idiot who decided to do a media stump on the side of a highway????)” – Glen
That was not a good look at all. Even ABC news couldn’t resist juxtaposing images of the PM strolling around outside the Opera House greeting people and Rudd at the side of a road screaming at reporters.
As for Newspoll, if an increase in Labor’s support were on the cards rest assured Kerry O’Brien would have been all over it.
Yes, Gary Bruce. It’s about “intelligenge sharing”, apparently. It’s obviously a ploy by Howard to big-note himself. Top spooks and old that, old chap. Hush hush stuff. Don’t think the punters will take any notice. In fact, it might scare the shite out of some of ‘em.
Re: Newspoll. Lateline had the break last time, as I recall.
Generic Oracle (130)
Has it occurred to you that the endless paperwork you had to fill out for Centrelink is as a result of current government policy, which demands an (unjustifiable) degree of intrusive paternalistic control over the unemployed (and disabled, single parents, etc)? Don’t complain about the public servants, or the PS bureaucracy, blame the government for requiring it and not funding the system properly.
Well Simon my poorer efforts still manage to make more sense than your empty Howard hating rants…
At least Howard had some vision, and a view to restore our economy by balancing the books and pay off Labor’s debt and he wanted less power for the Union movement and the introduction of AWAs…completely different to Labor’s IR and privatization of Telstra ect.
Answer me this Simon if Howard is so then why is Rudd copying the Prime Minister in just about everything except IR???
Howard is not out of puff and no matter how much you dislike him he’s not as hated like Keating was back in 1996…
If Rudd is exactly the same as Howard or a Howard lite why would people change when you put them next to each other…
I think its highly likely Howard will debate Rudd twice if he’s well behind in the polls and Rudd is likely to accept…then it will be make or break…
2hours to go until Newspoll…
Steven Kaye,
Didn’t you see Kerry’s red tie?
He seemed a lot happier than usual.
I noticed a little smile on his face too.
For someone who was Gough Whitlam’s media adviser no wonder Kerry is happy at the moment Fagin…it’s no secret he is a Labor voter just as Tony Jones is…Howard will close the gap on preferred PM and approval ratings after APEC that is a no brainer…
We’ll have Howard meeting and greeting world leaders and Rudd shouting from a freeway about how he’d do everything the same and would think APEC is dead if it didnt come up with a binding emission targets scheme…Rudd will get nothing out of APEC and the more violent APEC is the better for Howard also the security pact with the USA giving Australia more military technology secrets will reaffirm Howard’s credentials on defence and national security…
I think we are at the crossroads, and Newspoll will give some insight to which way we are headed.
The ALP have been way ahead all year, we have seen some movement towards the Govt, but more slowly than they would have liked.
Its been two weeks since the rate rise was announced, there is talk of another, the ALP have released good solid Health and I.R policies, while Howard is focusing on APEC, we have the issue of the Pulp Mill.
Generally I feel we will see a 55-45 Newspoll, although I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 53-47 or 56-44 if this is the case then I don’t think we will see much movement until the Election is called, I’m tipping Oct 27
The result will then result on both the over all national campaign and local, If Rudd wins that campaign 55–45 is a real possiblity meaning a massive landslide win.
If Howard wins campaign which mostly likey will happen if the ALP make a major gaffe then there is still a chance Howard could win.
Based on the trends I would expect the Election result to have the ALP anywhere between 52-55 but in saying this this Govt has won 4 elections so regardless of reasons behind those wins they know how to win.
Answer me this Glen, if Howard is so much better then why is Rudd is so far ahead in the polls especially since he is only or merely copying the Prime Minister in just about everything except IR???
Glen perhaps you can explain Howard’s enormous courage in 1996 in repeatedly denying that he would bring in the GST, when he fully intended doing so. That was a barefaced lie, because he knew the floaters wouldn’t float to him if they thought they were going to get a GST. And again in 2004, where was the promise to bring in these IR laws? Even Latham would have beaten Howard if the floaters had known what he had in store for them. He has consistently lied his way into office for the past decade.
Anita,
Everyone here has been going on about polls all year, I suspect nothing knew has been written since May LOL
Glen: APEC won’t be the election winner Howard and you Liberals are hoping for, in fact it’ll lose the Rodent votes in Sydney especially.
Sydneysiders are pissed off and a little alarmed at the over the top security being imposed on them.
Newspoll: 55-45
We’ve got the Glen and Steven K tag team back again. I’ve got plagiarism detection software. Careful boys and girls.
cheers,
Alan H
Your comment simply didn’t match with historical fact, no need to attack me personally. I thought you had turned a corner and were expressing your views in a more reasonable fashion, but I guess I was wrong.
The economy didn’t need restoring in 1996. Growth was 4.5%, inflation was 2.5%, productivity was 2%. Now growth is 3.5%, inflation 3%, productivity 0.5%. I know which numbers I prefer.
Because elections are a race to the centre. The parties realise that most voters want moderate policies, and that most of their judgement is actually based on emotive things, like whether they like the candidate or not. Obviously voters think Rudd is a more acceptable candidate than Beazley, Crean, Latham, and even Howard.
Howard moderated a lot as well remember. He repudiated his stance on the pace of Asian immigration, he realised that no government could be elected that wanted to get rid of Medicare so he stopped opposing it. He realised he couldn’t form government if he supported the GST, so again, he got rid of that, even though he wanted it.
So why have 1.2 million voters switched parties since 2005? Do you think, as Howard suggests, that it is all just a gag?
Howard will lose the debates, or at best, break even. Having two debates will just give Rudd more ’standing’ by showing him directly against Howard. He will not do this, at most there will be 1 debate, and it will be in the 1st or 2nd week of the campaign.
Adam, what about Beazley’s threat to “rollback” the GST when he had absolutely no intention of doing so?
I reckon the ALP is one of the most intellectually dishonest major parties in the English-speaking world.
Glen, there will be zero bounce for Apec for Howard. Most people couldn’t give a rats ass. Those that do are Sydney people and are right royally peeved.
People who are concerned about cost of living and interest rates care very little about a PM meeting a group of leaders head by the most unpopular president in US history about issues where NOTHING concrete will be finalised.
And the shirts. Don’t forget the shirts. Once Mr and Mrs Punter sees Howard lookin snazzy in one of those, his poll numbers will go north faster than a retired Victorian.
Actually it’s in Australia so what are they going to do? Mambo tshirts? Get everyone to wear hats with dagly corks?
Simon, that is what Glen does mate.
He slips in one rational, reasonable balanced comment to suck you into engaging with him, then off he goes on another 200 entry rant about how the sun shines out of Howards lower exit point and Rudd is the devil incarnate.
He has been doing this crap for months and has made a joke of this blogspace for rational, reasonable debate. I will never understand why the host has allowed this completely aimless crap to go on and on and on.
Your site William, your prerogative, your money.
I for one dont think is simply a matter of one Liberal voice of reason and debate being circled by Labor supporters, it is just utter crap and a waste of space…has been for months now.
When will you do something about it William ?
Glen at 221:
” the USA giving Australia more military technology secrets will reaffirm Howard’s credentials on defence and national security…”
Yes, I’m sure aircraft and guidance missile software codes will play miraculously well in the households of middle Australia (is there an emoticon that has one eyebrow raised while gagging with disbelief?)
As for the polls, is it just me, or does the the Coalition look like they are one rogue poll away from self immolation?
Some dodgy number like an ALP 61/39 would turn politics into a veritable circus about now.
I’d be tempted to cook some popcorn.
Ollie: Glen doesn’t worry me too much! I find I’m ignoring all the crap being spouted by Howard supporters these days. In their desperation, they are digging their own grave.
A-C, that was a perfectly honest commitment. If Beazley had won I’m sure there would have been significant changes to the GST brought in, although without control of the Senate it would have been difficult to unpick the deal that the Democrats did with Howard. This rather feeble diversion does nothing to answer my point about Howard and the GST in 1996. You can’t know what Beazley would have done, because he never became PM. We do know what Howard said, and what he did. He said he would “never ever” bring in a GST. That was a straightforward, calculated, conscious lie. He favoured it in 1993, he still favoured it in 1996, and as soon as he got into office he discarded “never ever” like a snake discards last year’s skin.
Here is my thinking
I took a look at the older Newspolls on their web page showing first prefernce (not TPP). I guessed an equivalent date to this poll and came up with the following polls and final first preferences (it will format poorly).
Newspoll April 3-5, 10-12 1987 43 46
Newspoll December 1-3 & 8-10 1989 40 43.5
Newspoll December 19-20 1992 42 44.3
Newspoll 15-17 December 1995 47 47
Newspoll 24-26 July 1998 35 39.5
Newspoll 10-12 August 2001 40 43.1
Newspoll 2-4 July 2004 43 46.7
The only time they didn’t increase by 3% was when they were already on 47% first preference.
I am guessing a 41 (46 TPP) will be reported in equivalent terms to an inevitable coalition win.
Adam: Workchoices at the very least will ensure the Coalition doesn’t have control of the senate again. Look what happens when a PM has too much power in this hands. The Rodent just couldn’t resist the opportunity to fulfill his lifelong dream – it’s a pity the Australian public weren’t told about this in 2004.
Ok one at a time Rudd Cheer squad….
Pauline is first…
“If Howard is so much better then why is Rudd is so far ahead in the polls especially since he is only or merely copying the Prime Minister in just about everything except IR?”
- Howard’s IR policy was mismanaged fairly and squarely i am big enough to admit that Pauline and clearly that policy designed to strengthen our economy has been seen as a very bad negative for the Government and has been ammunition for the ALP to bash the Howard Government for months and months…a vote winner for Labor not for Howard.
-Kim was unpopular and a drovers dog could of been more popular than him no offence because Kim would have been a better PM if the ALP does win later this year…
-Rudd has been media staged since he took office in 1998 and the plain and simple fact is the media have not held Rudd and his polices to account as they have done for the Howard Government…result Howard goes down in the polls.
-Boredom plain and simple people like the look of Rudd and are easily led into the trap by the media who say Howard is out of touch and old and tired and past his used by date…if Howard loses alot of the reasons for that loss will be because people got bored with how well Australia was going and felt like a change for changes sake…
OLLIE is next
“Bloody hell; another aimless pro Howard rant from Glen: pathetic in the extreme.”
Ollie if i didnt post anything supporting the Howard Government any outsider would see this blog as a part of Kevin O7 and not an independent all encompassing debate in politics…if you dont like people expressing their views which are different to yours perhaps you dont like democracy? Ollie im afraid that if i am to be labelled as a ranting pathetic Howard hugger they’d be a few posters who would take the baton as ranting pathetic Rudd huggers…
And finally my dear ‘friend’ Adam…
“Explain Howard’s enormous courage in 1996 in repeatedly denying that he would bring in the GST, when he fully intended doing so. That was a barefaced lie, because he knew the floaters wouldn’t float to him if they thought they were going to get a GST. And again in 2004, where was the promise to bring in these IR laws?”
- the GST cost the Libs the 1993 election that idiot Hewson should have been able to express a GST better and not single handedly destroy his campaign instead…
-Howard had no plans for a GST before the election but once in power saw how State taxes were crippling the Australian economy that something had to be done.
-With respect Adam…Howard did fight the 1998 election on this issue and the people decided and kept his Government in power…
-Adam i thought someone like you would know the meaning of a ‘non-core’ promise i mean what else was Howard’s pledge but a ‘non-core’ it was a negative with the public but it had to be done if he got into power to sought out the economy.
-In 2004 if Howard brought in his IR policy with unfair dismissal and AWAs with no-disadvantage tests he’d still have won the election…Howard failed when he didnt add the no-disadvantage test with pre-2005 AWAs…
-Also Adam any political pundit would know the Libs supported since 1996 greater de-regulation of the IR system and the privatisation of Telstra but couldnt do it because the Senate blocked our reforms time and time again…the people voted for it but we couldnt get it done so now that we could do it we did…
Ill keep this my last post until i comment on the polls later…to be continued…
What he said. It’s Time.
As for Possum’s comment in the post prior to that (234) – it makes me wonder what the tipping point might be for an immolation. 63-37? It won’t happen, as I think even a rogue poll perhaps won’t go over 60, I don’t think.
What if it did, though? What could the Libs possibly do about (i.e. a leadership challenge) while APEC is on? Maybe as the leaders are all driving to the airport, someone gets out the knife quickly before JWH can rush over to the GGs and start the election, just to save himself.
All speculation, though, and it won’t happen, but you can dream.
Glen says of Howard’s “never ever” pledge: “what else was Howard’s pledge but a ‘non-core’ it was a negative with the public but it had to be done if he got into power to sought [sic] out the economy.” Well. I didn’t expect Glen to admit so openly that it was a lie. I am impressed. I don’t think Lib Bloggers Central will be impressed, though. Glen might be recalled for reprogramming.
Glen spoils his record, however, with this absurdity: “Howard had no plans for a GST before the election but once in power saw how State taxes were crippling the Australian economy that something had to be done.”
Um, Howard only noticed in 1996 that “State taxes were crippling the Australian economy”? Funny, that’s what he and Hewson repeated ad nauseam in the 1993 campaign. It was a central premise of FightBack. Did he forget? Did it slip his mind in the excitement of becoming Leader? Had he had FightBack surgically removed from his brain? Come along, Glen, you’re no fun at all when you give us such tosh.
Glen boredom does not change the status quo on the contrary it enforces it as in ‘who cares’ and ‘what difference does it make?’ And in any case the boredom argument is the weakest of them all. It is a total and utter furphy and red herring.
It might help you feel better about the inevitable outcome but it won’t wash with the great unwashed. The polls do show that there is a higher than normal number of voters engaged and decided. When it comes down to personal issues such as interest rates, petrol and grocey prices, housing prices and job security than you have the attention of the voter. And they are all bad for the Govt. That’s why the polls are bad. And of course the little lying rodent can’t be trusted anymore after pulling the IR stunt and GST stunt etc on voters before.
Re Julie at #137 & Albert F at #119 on government advertising and the caretaker period.
Successive governments have followed the convention (not law) that, once the Parliament is dissolved, the government goes into ‘caretaker’ mode. The basic idea underlying the convention is that, with no Parliament, the Executive is no longer accountable and should not take decisions which would bind an incoming government.
When it comes to advertising, let me quote from the August advice issued by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (187kb .pdf)
The important thing to remember is that there is no legal basis for the convention, and that the interpretation and enforcement of the convention is ultimately a matter for the government itself, which is still in full legal command. The attitude of the bureaucracy to implementing the conventions will naturally depend on which way they see the political wind blowing…
#237 sorry ifonly, but first preferences for which party? what are final first preferences?
Im going to try here to save William 200-300 entries and present reasons Glen will give if the newspoll favours Labor and then the Coalition.
Glen just pick a number {coded it for you and all I have} and entry that as your contribution then go to bed and dream of being invited to Kirribilli.
Newspoll in Rudds favour
1. A rogue poll
2. A communist conspiracy between the ALP and newspoll
3. Kerry big ears paid them to get it wrong
4. Rudd is mini me [mee tooism]
5. Bush, yes thats it, Bush is in town
6. The media are biased towards the Rudd ster
7. Rudd is gutless and cant tie his own shoes laces [no experience]
8. My mum forgot to change my nappies and I am dribbling on my shirt
9. The union thugs have beaten the voters into voting for Labor
10. The voters are having a ‘bit of a joke’ with JWH, just kidding.
Newspoll in Howards favour
1. The true election poll, the first one all year, has finally come out
2. The electorate beleive JWH is the best Prime Minister this country ever had.
3. Rudd lost credibility with strippergate
4. John, oh John,, oh oh oh……….sorry where was I , oh yes,
5. APEC has reminded the Australian community of JWH high standing and influence [Ollie nearly puked writing that]in the international community
6. People know that global warning is actually a Labor party myth
7. John Hewson apologised for losing the unloseable election at last.
8. Peter Costello has declared he, indeed, is the greatest ever trevor esurer that ever existed
9. God is ‘on our side’
10. Rudd was exposed for not playing well with other children in kindergarten.
Choose Glen, punch in a number, then go to bed.. please !!
Glen, a majority of Australians voted against Howard in 1998. He had no mandate for the GST, even after the event. He lied about the GST, as Adam said, a deliberate, barefaced lie. He lied when he said he hadn’t made a decision on whether to back Bush’s stupid Iraq adventure. He had already told Bush, and Bush confirmed it in public, but Howard didn’t have the guts or decency to tell the Australian people. Another deliberate, barefaced lie. There are many of them. He’s gone, you know it, we all know it. A little, little man, the worst PM Australia has ever had, whose ‘vision’ never extended beyond the next election. His legacy, a regressive tax. Clap, Clap.
cheers,
Alan H
Simon i was trying to reply to others so i didnt see your post id be happy to answer some of your questions as reasonably and calmly as i can so that everybody wins…and no i am not a troll and i do want to engage you in debate whenever possible
Ok here we go…
Firstly i find it funny that i am considered rational and reasonable whenever i make a post that is either critical of John Howard and the Liberal Party or when i make no mention of Rudd or Labor’s failings…so the ‘beauty’ of a post is in the eye of the beholder.
Actually Simon the economy did need restoration…Interest rates at about 9%…inflation at the limit for the reserve bank at 3%…unemployment at 10% and net commonwealth debt at 96billion dollars with 8billion a year needed for interest payments on that debt
1996 Inflation 3%
Unemployment 10%
Interest Rates 8-9%
Productivity 2%
Net Debt – 96b
or 2007 Inflation 2.5-3%
Unemployment 4.4%
Interest Rates 6.5%
Productivity – 0% but predicted far higher in forward estimates
Net Gov Debt – 0
Budget surplus – 13.5b
I know which one id want…
Agree with your view about the race for the centre couldnt agree more about that statement…the GST was unpopular but necessary that’s why it was a ‘non-core’ promise and Beazley’s roll back lie was a joke…
We don’t know 1.2million voters have changed for sure i dont think its a gag at all clearly Howard is going to lose votes in 2007 just how many will decide the election.
If the polls dont move and Howard is facing for a loss i dont see the harm in going for two and hoping Rudd puts his foot in it…
Boll #246 sorry, Coalition
further to my comment at #246, I take it you`re predicting a mid-December election?
Do you think that if Howard waits too long to call the election it might give the impression he knows he’s going to lose?
If he gives off that impression he could lose the votes of those who like to back winners.
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