I’m hearing it, but not quite yet believing it – Labor’s Newspoll lead has apparently widened to a breathtaking 59-41 (from 55-45 last time). Details to follow as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 46-39 to 48-37.
UPDATE 2: Comments thread rumours tell of a Labor primary vote of 51 per cent, against 37 per cent for the Coalition.
659 Comments
I am having difficulty digesting this myself. It just seems like it is too good to be true
PPM Rudd 48/37
Man, what a tool that aussies4anzus guy was on Lateline. Is it just the morons who are left supporting Bush?
Steveo says:
“59 – 41 This is an unexpected but welcomed result”
Reminds me of the night when JWH won control of the senate he spoke these words “an unexpected yet welcomed result”
Yikes. If true, it’s probably at least part rogue, so best not to get too jubilant about it. Then again, it’ll certainly be picked up by the media as ‘government in dire straits’, so that’ll set the tone for the gallery for the next week.
Dario, where are the primary numbers from?
I just read someone in the other thread scolding us for getting excited about a poll sampling a measley 2000 voters.
Need we go over the consistantly above 50% polls for over a year all over again.
They are preferred PM.
Can’t wait for Downer’s reaction.
Ouch that PPM is more significant than the 2PP. Wake me up when its over…WOW.
Glen go to post @245 on previous thread, punch in a number, take 3 panadol and go to bed mate. Good night Glen and goodbye JWH.
Under any other circumstances, this poll result would be labelled an outlier and dismissed. But it comes after last week’s Galaxy of 57-43 and a general drift back towards Labor over the last few weeks. Morgan’s result on Friday was probably the outlier.
This is a very damaging result for Howard, not just because of the lack of support for his government, but because of the negative headlines that will surface over the next couple of days related to this result, just when Howard was hoping for positive stories from APEC.
I can’t believe this poll. Can 41% of people really be that inbred?
Yikes.
I think this is all a fall-out from his disastrous War on States strategy. Textor/Crosby should be fired for suggesting it.
Little Johnnys gone gone gone.The look on Lord Downers face on lateline.Not a hint of his usual arrogance.Very pissed off.Bring on the election.
Since we were all fearing a drop and got a big rise I’m not taking a chill pill but enjoying the moment. Need to enjoy the journey.
How do we know? It might be, but then again it might not. What it DOES say is that, even if the margin of error is huge, the govt is in major, major trouble. The previous Newspoll showed a gap that was workable. This one doesn’t.
Oh dear, now they have Downer on Lateline to seal the deal…
Put down the glasses – it’s all over.
Shanahan tomorrow – “Coalition looking at big win in 2010″
GREAT!!! JUST GREAT!!! It’s in agreement with Morgan ph and Galaxy, so I don’t think it’s a complete rogue.
Spot on Noocat. This will take a lot of the focus away from APEC. Very hard for Howard to get anything out of this week now.
Galaxy was 57-43 so this is not necessarily a rogue poll. It’s a bit of a shock though. One interest rate rise and all the government gains of the last few months wiped out. It’s going to be hard for them to peg this one back. I think the government may just be history. I have my fingers crossed that I wil hear the rodent concede in the next 8 weeks.
Generic Oracle (230 on the thread that was open when I started typing and closed when I pushed submit),
Yes, I remember the glossy government brochures, booklets, CDs, etc -and the not-so-glossies of the same – unused and unwanted. I used to throw some stuff in the bin as soon as I got it in the Kennett years. But educational discourse is dominated by those who know nothing who have deliberately denigrated those who do know so that the latter’s credibility is reduced.
As for Newspoll, I didn’t see that coming – and I don’t believe it either. Labor is in front and will stay in front and will win, but 59-41 is Morganitic.
I’d think this poll is at the upper end of its margin of error as morgan was probably at the lower end – this still leaves a 2pp at 56 or 57 to with Howard running out of cards to play.
The “go to the polls after the APEC bounce” strategy is now dead. He’ll hang on – but he may just make it worse.
A bit late
Kevin 08
Could the poll reflect the Equine Flu disaster due to total and utter incompetence of this Govt?
Where is Glen? Is he hiding?
a uniform swing would give 119 seats
An extraordinary result and it looks like it might become a rout. It appears that there has been a small move to Labor over the last month, after a winter of flatlining. This could be bcause Rudd has annouonced a couple of big policies, the health takeover and IR. The latter was said to be Labor’s achilles heel, but it seems to have met with muted approval. Somoething to remember with IR, is that WorkChoices is poison in the electorate – they may not understand the intricacies, nor may it be affecting them particularly, but there is a deep-seated loathing of it. Every time IR is in the news, whatever the context, it is bad news for the government.
The down side is that this probably means the October election is off – on those numbers it’s easy to imagine the election on the 8th December, or even the 15th (surely the latest he could possibly go). Three more months of this – I’m not sure I can take it!
Crank up the shredders, Team Rodent!
We’re coming up the stairs.
Take one last look around, cos the last chopper’s to the Brisbane Lord mayoral office is leaving the roof, right about now.
taken with the 3 % Galaxy shift, this could be a trend
best result for ALP since May
preferred PM now 11% different
how will The Oz and Shanahan spin this and will they even bother
The Australian has an early report: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22356737-601,00.html
No mention of primaries, though.
No one knows the election result and I pray every day to see Howard lose.
Howard may still win. But I have decided that I am going to enjoy watching the downfall.
59/41 and PPM 48/37 is back in April territory. Fantastic result.
I am going to sleep soundly tonight and dream of Howards tears as I drift off.
c’mon Glen, i wait with baited breath for your spin
Thanks for the link Triangulum.
So have Morgan F2F changed something as they have recently given us three 55s? Even as their phone polls gave the usual high F2F level.
Even the Australian is calling it devastating:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22356737-601,00.html
I have to say that this poll has shocked me.I thought Mr Rudd had flatlined at about 55-56.
Wow !
If Howard delays until 2008 the margin might be 69-31 by then.
Everyone (like me) who enjoyed that, please use some of your goodwill and give William a donation for making this site the fun place that it is
This is just amazing. I want to see Shanahan write about how important the PPM figure is now that it is widening to disastrous proportions for the PM.
I know that it is extreme, but 59-41 is just under a 12% swing. This would be 57 seats gained.
This would translate into Labor winning 57 seats
It would be 117-31
This ain’t gonna happen, but it still could be a bloodbath….
Still in shock
Consistent with Galaxy.
I’ve never been so happy to be wrong (I’d expected 55/45, 2pp).
And poor old Howard wasting his time poncing around with APEC. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns.
Agree with Dario about the aussies4anzus people. All two of them.
AND the best bit, I am still waiting for Lateline to come but will know that it is good news coming! Oh the humanity!
This is the “OMG, OMG we are all going to die” poll. On these numbers the primary for Labor must be 50%.
This election has developed not necessarily to the Coaltion’s advantage.
What is the done thing for donations?
I’m only an occasional poster. How much should I pay?
I saw the new ACTU ad tonight – very effective! Has it been playing long enough to affect Newspoll results?
Are the latest Newspoll results enough for The Australian to give up its “the honeymoon must end/ Kevin Rudd is really under pressure now” spin? I think so – even Dennis Shanahan must face reality, though I think Malcolm Colless and Christopher Pearson will go down with the ship.
I think this makes December 1 or 8 more likely. There is possibly going to be an interest rate rise on November 7th, so there needs to be some distance from that.
If he waits until Dec 15th then surely he will be gone.
Someone in the previous thread asked what 59 / 41 would equate to in seat terms, it would be about 119, including half of ministry gone.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/election-calculator/
A surprising result, but not inconsistent with the trend. You’d have to think a few Lib MPs would be sounding out a new leader. Any other party (especially the ALP) would ditch its leader with such a gap on 2PP and preferred PM. Changing leaders may not work, but it’s hard to think of anything else that might.
Brown moleskins might be appropriate APEC photo op uniform.
I don’t think it’s about horse flu. I think it’s all about interest rates and IR.
Hi Call the election please
I agree with your comment in the last post, I didn’t mean to imply the highway press conference would have an impact, I just suggested steps should be taken to make sure it won’t happen again.
ON tonights poll – holy crap—its all over, 4% increase is just increadible.
At that margin, Kevin rein could do all his doorstops in a traffic island and still not lose the election
Terrific figures they might be …
but there are still hard yards to be done. If if you are not a member of a leftish party get out and letterbox, hand out HTVs at prepollls and on the day, screw in ear.
To all those in the east, thank you for the updates tonight.
I will enjoy my beer even more now waiting for Tony Jones in the soon to be safe Labor seat of Stirling.
The telling line in that early Australian response to the poll was the last one
“Polls usually move closer once the election is called, but this weekend’s result puts Labor much further ahead than John Howard was when he beat Labor prime minister Paul Keating in 1996″.
That reads as an obituary to me, but it aint till its over.
I fully support anyone donating towards the maintenance of William’s excellent site. Sir Eggo, you click the PayPal link at the top and go from there. I’m a big of an ignoamus when it comes to computers and I managed it, so it must be pretty easy….
Wooooo, mama. The mother of all electoral storms cometh.
Those baseball bats were a tea party.
(I didnt whisper this: but 4 senate seats in two states aint impossible.)
Even if you are not a member of a leftish party get out and letterbox, hand out HTVs at prepollls and on the day, screw in ear.
I think this result, including Galaxy, is coming from a combination of factors, some of which are owing to Howard’s lack of judgment or sheer recklessness, such as his War on the States and the Strippergate smear.
And of course, the interest rate rise has probably only added salt to the wound.
Is there anything positive coming from the government apart from attacking Labor or frightening the public?
Something else is coming in to play with the prefered P.M. figures (48 – 37), those stats are becoming self fullfilling. People want to vote for Labor, therefore they are marking Rudd higher, they are marking Rudd higher because they want to vote Labor.
Another very bad sign for Howard.
Whatever you think is reasonable, Sir Eggo (41), given what most online subscriptions are worth.
I agree with you Hoots
I cant believe that 41% of Australians are morons
Twenty bucks is plenty, Eggo.
Chris Curtis, haven’t seen the new ads myself. What was the angle of these ones?
Text Message from Coalition central to Glen-
‘Go to bed mate, we cant think of anything you can say this time’. Sorry, delete last word , we never say sorry.
Downer mouthing off Rudd saying he has been claiming victory already in private. Sounds like utter bs to me. Very sour grapes Dolly.
I thought some rogue poll of 61/39 would make the government self immolate.
While this one doesnt have the contagious insanity of a 6 in front of it, 59 will still make for some entertaining viewing.
Interest rates since 2003 have favoured the opposition and take nearly a month to flow through the system into Newspoll. If the punters liked the health blueprint, and the interest rate issue flowed through with the mortgage increase notifications from the banks – it makes perfect sense.
So saying – remember folks, this isnt necessarily the true estimation.The true estimation is somewhere between 56 and 62.
If the swing applied as 59/41 to Benelong it would become a safe Labor seat for an election or two (7.61%)
Cheers,
Tom.
Does Downer really believe that kind of argument will win them back the votes ? Pathetic.
Yeah I’m sure Rudd has been ringing Downer constantly to have chats… then Downer says “You hang up first” and Rudd says… “No you”… then Downer hangs up… picks up the phone and hears Rudd is still there and giggles.
And in the Downer light of making up any rubbish to make your enemy seem arrogant: John Howard rang me last week and told me he will win this election 95-5TPP.
Dario,
It was headed “Real people. real stories” I think. It gave the names of the couple on it and they gave their own story of being unjustly dismissed. No spin!
“Possum Comitatus Says:So saying – remember folks, this isnt necessarily the true estimation.The true estimation is somewhere between 56 and 62.”
Even 56 is still a lovely number Possum !
Twas the night of the Newspoll that hit 59
All the bloggers were goggled and rushed to opine
It’s all over for Rodent, they crowed from the left
And Lord Downer on Lateline appeared quite bereft.
And even poor Shanners was forced to concede
That things for the Rodent look quite bleak indeed
But one thing is certain, though we don’t know quite when
The cry will go up, “it’s all bullshit!” from Glen.
“this weekend’s result puts Labor much further ahead than John Howard was when he beat Labor prime minister Paul Keating in 1996.”
From the Australian.
It’s 1996 all over again except the parties are reversed.
Incidently, that blue shirt Leigh Sayles wore is awesome.
William
Many apologies. I actually gave you fifteen, before I saw your post (56).
The next one will be 5 dollars more
Keep the entertainment coming. Where’s Glen, he’s the funniest.
BTW, it’s Sir Eggo, not Eggo, I didn’t support put myself through the hell of supporting the Newcastle Knights this year without giving myself a knighthood
LOL
if
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too:
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;
If you can dream — and not make dreams your master;
If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim,
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same:
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ‘em up with worn-out tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings,
And never breathe a word about your loss:
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings — nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much:
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And — which is more — you’ll be a Man, my son!
— Rudyard Kipling
Listening to Downer while writing this. He’s running the usual line that people will come to their senses when the election is called. He also sounds pretty pissed off with Kevin Rudd, claiming he’s been telling Newspaper editors that he (Rudd) has already won the election.
As to the Newspoll result itself, I think this has to put paid to the theory that there is a slow drift back to the Coalition. If there ever was any such drift, it’s gone now. In fact, with Galaxy earlier this week on 57/43 maybe the drift is in the other direction…
Downer on Lateline – “Rudd has been going around privately to the business community saying they have already won the election”
On these figures your lordship, its fact…
If Howard is determined to remain leader for as long as his party wants him, how does he ascertain that the party still wants him? Will he ask it, in the light of this poll?
Hey you guys
Please be considerate with your exuberance.
With 59 TPP, and a uniform swing, I still miss out on winning my seat (Tangney) by 0.01% or 8 votes.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/election-calculator/
I’m not sure why everyone’s picking on Glen. I’ve heard him express pessimism on a number of occasions. The denialists are Stephen Kaye and Nostrodamus, one of whom has the saving grace of a sense of humour.
I just heard Lateline and could not believe it, was referred here for undeniable proof (different from WMD, proof). Consider me a declared donor and thanks for the site and the considered comment.
Glen, Nostrodamus, Steven Kaye: where are they?
Oh yes, I can’t wait to read Glen’s attempted pro Howard spin on this one LOL
Seriously: I’m really quite surprised! So that Morgan poll from Friday was a real rogue one?
I too can’t see the Rodent getting a thing out of APEC. If you watched any news bulletins in Sydney tonight, it’s clear Sydneysiders are peed off with Howard and his good mate Bush.
Rudd’s industrial relations policy announcement was obviously a plus also for him last week.
So the election date has now been pushed back into November?
Much too premature to start celebrating, but I’ll go to bed feeling a little happier.
I think the last two polls (Galaxy and Newspoll) are due mainly to the equine flu problem but there are meetings on this weekend in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne which should give a few points back. Any violent protests, which I would normally say would advantage the Govt, probably won’t due to the presence of Bush who is amazingly unpopular here.The Govt may ask the Business Council to stop advertising industrial reform as this merely reminds voters. They would be wise in any case not to antagonize the incoming Administration.
Are we seeing a more solid homogeneous ’swinging’ class made up of around 10% of the electorate? Are these the aspirationals both sides are enticing?
Do you like Kipling?
I dunno. I’ve never kippled.
No worries, I’ll ease up on Glen. Many apologies
The PPM figure is interesting.Recapping the Pollwars, PPM is both covariant with the primary vote (as in they move together at the same time) and PPM is also a trailing indicator (meaning that the primary vote changes first and the PPM plays catch up)
This suggests that Rudds vote is strengthening by people saying they’ll vote for him, and then confirming that support with the preferred PM measure.
Rudd is solidifying his vote.
59/41 : people have already come to their senses.
Thanks Chris, I’ll keep an eye out for it!
He reverted to some blatant personal attacks in the previous thread, which was irritating, after he was quite measured in expressing his views over the previous few of days.
Adam: Bravo mate! Well done!
A 12% 2PP swing to Labor would make my seat of Berowra very marginal – if Ruddock actually had to go to preferences for once in his life, I’d be getting plastered and doing the happy dance naked all over my suburb.
I can manage to live with a measly 56%, Possum. He he he.
Galaxy and Newspoll are both showing a strong movement to the opposition. It is hard, nigh impossible, to see the government being re-elected. Barring overwhelming Rudd hubris, a major scandal or an atomic bomb landing on the MCG on grand final day.
Alexander Downer has told Lateline that Rudd is telling everyone that the ALP has already won the election. Who knows if this is true but if Newspoll & Galaxy are accurate then I’m not bloody surprised Rudd is confident. Private polling would also be confirming this.
When will the election be called? Howard has to announce the election within a week after APEC. He really does. Speculation will be frenzied and it will drive everybody crazy. If the election isn’t called the PM will look like the araldite man. Time is up. Three years have come and gone.
The PM has flexibility with the campaign period. But I doubt he’ll want to risk delaying the election into November and face bad inflation figures or a possible interest rate rise. Time is not on his side. The PM must hope he can campaign like a hero and claw back the ALP lead.
Surely the election will be during late October and I believe there will be at least two national debates. The government reminds me of a football team that is seven goals down at 3/4 time and is kicking into the wind in the last quarter. It has to take risks and discard political orthodoxy.
Delaying the election will not help
Can’t see why the IR policy would have helped Rudd, it did no more than neutralise a potential negative as far as I can see. The Hospital plan would have been better. I think the interest rates were helpful, less because they went up, more cos Howard didn’t look in control of it.
Yeah, I saw Downer on Lateline. I seriously doubt the truth behind his claims about Rudd telling people that he has the election in the bag. It’s just another smear attempt to make Rudd look arrogant and cocky, knowing that Australians detest arrogance.
Downer is probably just trying to make up for the disaster he created for the coalition with his strippergate smear attempt.
All up, just a big dose of sour grapes on his part, and probably also quite a few other government members, especially but not including Abbott.
Glen’s alright. I don’t agree with his politics but he’s more use in political discussions than any other Lib blogger I’ve seen.
77: I’m sceptical of whether equine flu counts as a political issue. Media coverage had hardly focused on whether or not the government is to blame. As to violent protests, I doubt they’ll have much impact: people may not like APEC disruptions, but they also don’t like anarchists smashing up their city.
Have seen that Rudd road-side interview a number of times now. I think some of you are just too close to the issue – it wasn’t that bad. AND it is something different, a Rudd among the real world. You wouldn’t want all your media statements like that of course.
Now will this become a self-fullfilling prophecy – the PM looks like a lame duck and none like to follow lame ducks. That may help keep the margin high.
HOLY SH*T
Dario, here is the link to the Real People, Real Choices Ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaZkakmENYs
JWH at a news conference shortly after APEC.
“While it has always been my intension to contest the next election it is clear the country has a mood for change – to pass the baton to the next generation of leaders. My own concerns are of no matter compared to that of the country. I feel it is best to allow the nation to choose change that does not threaten all the advances we have achievied over the last decade.
Therefore I am stepping down as Prime Minister and [ ] will contest the next election. In order to allow the good people of Australia a chance to get to know the new prime minister the next election not be held uptil next year…..”
Just day dreaming … what idiot would want to step up at this point?
Rudd had a good line last week about it being 3 years since Howard called the last election. He will ramp up the “he’s scared to go to the voters” line as soon as the APEC hoo-ha dies down.
Howard will have to call the election before 9th October, ie 3 years after the last election. Otherwise even the most ambivalent voter will realise the 3-year term has expired and Howard is just clinging on. No-one cares about or respects the consitutional trivia of January 2008.
So with a 6-week campaign as the last desperate throw of the dice, the election will be in November for sure.
But frankly this will just drive up Rudd’s numbers. So at which point will National MPs outnumber the Libs ?
A Queensland PM turning the whole country into the Banana State ! Live long enough, you see everything.
If anyone thinks APEC will provide a fillip for Howard, I recall New Zealand, 1999. Shipley hosted the APEC summit then lost in a landslide two months later.
This poll is boring simply bc there’s no competition in this election anymore. The big question now is will Howard lose his seat too?
Downer’s antipathy to Rudd is based on parallel carreers, Rudd’s unrelenting camapign against him personally over AWB and the growing reality that Labor is going to win.
Basically, it’s a big dummy spit.
Yes, William, you’re absolutely right. But Glen’s just so damn entertaining.
If I may on Glen’s behalf:
But, but, but…
Don’t people realise that Rudd saw nude female strippers? Completely naked they were! Anyway once the Budget bounce comes along everything will be fine for the Libs.
I disagree with you folks who say this poll will push the election date back. That won’t achieve anything except make Johnny look like a coward. His best hope, in my opinion, is to change the dynamics by calling the election, and lay out his agenda for the next term, including how long he plans to stay in the leadership. That would put the focus back on the government and the PM, and get the media coverage focused on the daily campaigning and fresh policies.
There will be an awful vacuum after APEC otherwise, which I’m sure Labor will enjoy filling.
I’m still predicting an Oct 20th or Oct 27th election, unless the Libs change leaders.
I see that poor old Dolly on Lateline was pushng the “things will change once the campaign starts” line for all it was worth.
Understandable, really. What else could he do?
For what it’s worth, I reckon that people have already made up their minds about Team Rodent, which is why we are seeing these consistently devastating poll figures.
I think Howard will go for a late October poll, rather than chance another interest rate rise a week or two out from a November election. He can’t really go in December. The last thing people want at that time of year is a Federal poll. They’re too busy getting loaded at the office Christmas party and trying to score with that chick from accounts.
They’ll punish anyone who tries to interfere with the merriment.
If he does do a Micawber, and hang on to December waiting for “something to turn-up”, I reckon the Labor 2pp could well exceed 60%. That would be pretty-well an Extinction Level Event for the Liberal party.
No. He’ll go in October to try and minimise the damage.
Leigh Sales. Loose, half open satin shirt. Arrrrrrrggggghhhh!
I agree with Kina (#91) about the Rudd road-side interview. I don’t think it was bad at all. I’d read the comments in the previous thread before seeing the interview and was expecting something horrendous. When I saw it, I wondered what all the fuss was about.
oh gawd i’m just watching Downer now- he looks like death warmed up, he cant be getting much sleep he’s got huge bags under his eyes.
So Downer says Rudd is telling people that he is going to win. I thought Rupert told everyone in the Oz editorial last week that Rudd is going to win.
I don’t think this has anything to do with horse flu at all. It MAY reflect Sydney people pissed off at APEC, which in turn reflects loathing of Bush – they don’t mind disruption when it’s for the Olympics or the Mardi Gras.
But I still think it’s 90% WorkChoices, and maybe interest rates now as well – a toxic brew. That’s what’s flipped the “Howard battlers” back to Labor.
Need a strip club Just Me?
Are they holding the council amalgamation polls in Qld on the 20th?
Albert F – you ask “what idiot would step up at that point?”
How about Malcolm Turnbull? Leadership would certainly help him retain his own seat, at the very least.
BTW I’m not suggesting Turnbull is an idiot. He certainly isn’t. But he’d be an idiot if he didn’t do something soon to stop the rot, and so would Costello.
I think Possum may well be proven correct in his prediction that McPherson may fall – you’ve got to think that Leichardt and Fairfax are also vulnerable now as well…
What will irk Howard is that the media will be far more interested in Rudd’s meeting with Bush on Thursday.
If Labor does win the election, how many of us “True Believers” will be sober enough to remember it? Thank god for video, youtube, the internet etc.
You say Murdoch, Downer says Rudd, let’s call the whole thing off!
I thought it made Rudd sound kinda tough for a change. Nice to know he can throw his voice.
But seriously, do you reckon Howard will stage dive like an Italian forward when they do the morning radio handshake?
“oww, my handsseesss!”
#97. Pseph, you can count on Howard losing Bennelong. Even if the TPP gap narrows, Maxine is attracting a huge personal vote.
Downer was trying to flirt with Leigh Sales: what a slimeball!
BTW, they should dump Tony Jones and give Leigh the job instead.
What has happened to the objectivity on these boards? There are over a hundred posts that essentially boil down to “yay Howard’s going to lose.” I’ve been reading this site for a few months now and have appreciated the analysis and insight of the posters here. Recently, however, this seems to have been replaced by self satisfied gloating and overt political bias.
William, are you Glen?
Possum. Loved your earlier post. Break out the popcorn and hide the knives.
59-41 is devastating. There is no other reasonable interpretation. It can’t be sold as rogue when it accords with most other current polls (within the MOE) and at worst it points to a moderate trend away from the coalition. At best it suggests a strong trend away.
Will be interesting to see if there’s a breakout of leadership speculation. I think they’ll stick with JWH even though it’s now clear their best chance to minimise the losses is for him to step down. There’s probably a lot of backbenchers cursing JWH for staying, and also cursing Costello for not challenging last year.
I know Howard doesn’t need to call an election legally until mid-November and then it doesn’t have to be until January, so how will it play if he delays calling an election.
I am torn, I think he can argue that he has the law on his side etc (this is understood only by psephs and politco-junkies) and then it plays badly with everyone else who knows it is due
This result looks good for my $10 bet on Julie Bishop becoming the next leader of the liberal party.
Downer just made that up to try to get the Newspoll results off the front page. It won’t work.
It looked better than Howard strolling around the Sydney “Green Zone”.
So if Howard admits to having been in a strip club whilst drunk and gets a resultant rise in the polls do we call this the tits bounce…..
Sorry, couln’t help myself…
Tom.
Regarding the ‘fantastic’ poll for the Coalition i have this statement….
Weak…seriously weak you guys i am so seriously pissed off right about now!
The best this poll can do (if it is legitimate) for Howard is rally the base in anticipation of a pumping…The worst this poll can do is get the media out trumpeting that Howard is a goner and once again come up with the phrase ‘its been another bad day for the Government’
But just to keep you all happy…General Wenck will come he’s got to or else we’ll be up s&$t creek without a paddle almost as bad as the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party.
Wow what a country i have to look forward too….if Rudd gets in…
Fair Work Australia and the Unions back in Town!
A Government Ministry 70% full of Union leaders
A Government Ministry that half the Labor supporters cant name!
A Republic + Changing the Flag
Surrendering to Terrorism abroad
Anti-Americanism
A Bill of Rights
All Levels of Government of the One Party
High Interest Rates
High Unemployment
High Inflation
An inexperienced Government as bad as Whitlam’s
A demoralized Opposition wondering why after all its good work it still got pumped…
On these polling figures though i’d better put some money on the ALP…that is if they’re still taking bets…
Adam, Newspoll has been showing the swing is strongest in safe government seats, not you ‘Howard battlers’. I agree with Mumble on this, the whole concept of Howard battlers is largely a myth.
For all you late night bloggers …
Watch Bob Hawke in Bennelong last week. Over a 100 hits since I uploaded it last night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP0S4KmiWCU
The issue now is that no one in their right mind will want the job. They’ll be focussing on saving their own seats first, then fighting over the scraps.
Nope: its Howard at the helm as Ship Rodent goes down.
hahaha Glen thats gold!
So funny to see Downer talking about Climate Change issues when not that long ago the Govt was denying its validity. Then again WorkChoices was unchangeable until they changed it.
How long before the ‘bloody Howard’ T-shirts come out?
I sort of agree – but I also think Howard is now deep in the bunker and beyond rational predictions.
What may be a rational damage control approach is not how he will react.
If ‘others’ are 10%, as for most recent Newspolls, then with prefs split 70:30 then primaries should be 52:38, if 60:40, then, obviously 53:37.
If others have grown a lot, which may be the case given the pulp mill angst, then probably both primaries will be lower. Perhaps the Greens have gone through the roof.
cheers,
Alan H
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22356737-601,00.html
Australian story up
Cheer up Glen, there’s no way this will be as bad as the Canadian Progressive Conservatives in 1993 (and I know you know it).
The Liberals, at worst, will be in no worse situation than the ALP after 1996 – soundly defeated, but remember they almost took government in 1998.
I don’t think this election is over (yet) – I want to see what happens with APEC and the first round of government election advertising – if there’s no bounce after the first week of the campaign, it will then definitely be over
Downer is starting to sound disturbed.
Is Centrebet doing any odds on which Coalition M.P. will be first caught drink driving after suffering R.D.S. (Relevance Deprivation Syndrome) due to being bundled into opposition?
TofK Says: Need a strip club Just Me?
Touché. LOL
I particularly like the ’surrendering to terrorism’ one.
If this political contest was a horse race then Kevin Rudd has just kicked 3 lengths clear at the top of the straight with John Howard not finding anything under heavy pressure.
It may not be a case of shut the gate just yet, but on this result and last week’s Galaxy poll you would be tempted to say (in the words of Wayne Wilson), “if you’ve back the favourite, get in the queue!”
Glen having a tantrum: very amusing!
Howard Hater at #112 – I have already decided to tape the election result that I can watch it over sober and watch the good moments. (Assuming they are good ones.)
My favourite election night moment ever was the 2001 WA election when Graham Kierath was the Liberal party commentator on the ABC and he lost his own seat – that was priceless!
I know Adam warned me about planning my drinkies – but Adam, maybe I can at least think about it now.
J @ 117, you probably want to give this place a wide berth on Newspoll night. It’s like when there’s a full moon out.
The internet is a wonderful tool, a couple of searches and I find the registered address of:
http://www.aussies4anzus.com
John Ruddick, (Address deleted – PB) New South Wales, 2060, Australia
John Ruddick, a member of the Liberal Party and national convenor of Young Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy.
Perhaps you need a house loan
http://jrhl.com/about.html
I agree, Alan H. There seems to be a lot of preferences helping Labor to 59% 2PP. And I wonder if some of it is related to the pulp mill. That’s been the most prominent issue in the last week or so. And if former Howard adviser Geoff Cousins hates the pulp mill, you’d have to think there are a lot of other Libs who do too. They may switch to voting Green with preferences to Labor, rather than switch straight to Labor.
Still, I think there’s a hard-core Labor vote there for WorkChoices and interest rates.
Bennelong Resident, thanks for that clip of Hawke on Iraq. Does anyone remember him being that clear when he supported the first venture in ‘91?
Newspoll lead story on ch 9 news…….love it
Please spare a thought for all the Business Lobbies who have spent millions of their big fat corporate dollars on pedestrian corporate mining IR ads and all this to have the polls nosedive for them to %41.
You got to ask which side are they helping and which side are they on?
Shrike, that’s my view, it’s been my view all year and I ain’t budging from it. If Mumble said that, Mumble is wrong. You can’t explain the behaviour of a seat like Lindsay any other way. There is of course a doctor’s wives swing on in their safe seats as well – the Libs are, if I may put it this way, being screwed from both ends.
I think its the red moon! we;ve all gone mad!
Ok now thats out of my system
Leadership speculation if the AC that comes out is 60/40 more than likely given this poll will they change leaders…they should do something so radical as to make Julie Bishop Prime Minister our first female Prime Minister would be so out there it really couldnt hurt and if these figures were uniform on election night Curtin would be a marginal seat lol who knows but…it’s either a rogue poll but Labor still rock solid at 55-45 or Labor’s support is going through the stratosphere….
Gee Howard needs some big points on APEC because if by the end of September he’s still more than 10 points down im half way to conceding the election….
Personally i wouldnt be surprised if Rudd is telling people he’s going to win in a Ruddslide i mean if you were ahead by 18 points in the polls a terrorist nuclear strike on Canberra is just about the only thing to bring the polls back in the Governments favour so of course he’d be saying this to influential people…it shores up his support and would explain why the Australian so uncharacteristically attacked Howard last week…
I think it was different, because Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the security council voted for the U.N. to intervene. There was no security council vote for the second Gulf War, becuase the U.S. new it was going to fail.
Joe Hockey would lose his seat if the uniform swing was 12%, unlikely as that seems.
I’ve worked out how The Australian will spin the result: “Mr Rudd’s backdown on IR brings those reluctant to support unions to his side”.
Watching Downer right now. He is shocking. Grabbing onto every piece of empty clichéd political rhetoric he can in a desperate attempt to smear his opponents.
Yeah, I predict business will stop wasting their ad money (and testing the next governments “good will”) shortly.
I also predict the Government will continue to waste our tax dollars on their pointless, counterproductive saturation campaign.
Glen… Julie Bishop as PM would be dire right now. It would be the most confusing moment in Australia political history.
Wow, just after I convinced myself that I could live with 54-46. This is even better than the post-Burke NewsPoll (also 59 I think), and the Budget MasterClass (TM) NewsPoll (57?).
Looks like Subdued Piers on Insiders was the telling factor after all. In the 5 stages of grief he is obviously up to stage 4 now (resignation). Downer is still at Stage 2 (Anger) – may he stay at that level for all eternity. I suspect Costello made it all the way to Stage 5 (Acceptance) the NewsPoll after the Budget.
Think I’ll sample of a bit of Dolly Delusion on LateLine now …
Glen you just want Julie Bishop to be Pm because she turns you on.
Yes but CTEP what a way to get back the initiative and lets not forget the doctor’s wives they vote too…maybe the Liberals need a Maggie Thatcher to get them rolling again because more polling like this and its half way over..
I said some time back that The Australian would probably back Labor if Kevin Rudd backed down on IR. I think he has backed down far enough for it to do so.
Are you infatuated by Julie Bishop? She is a hopeless debater, Rudd would rip her to shreds. It’s either Howard, or Howard at this stage. Well, unless he dies. In that case it would be Costello.
He won’t get anything. Rudd doing a press stop next to a main road will pull more votes.
I’m with Adam at 144.There are Howard battlers in the sense of low-middle income households switching to Howard, they just might not fit the stereotype all of the time and they often get washed out at the seat level with aggregation bias.But Workchoices has torn that demographic a new one, and for those that hated it but werent comfortable voting for the Bomber – the Rudd leadership opened the door for them.
julie Bishop has weird eyes but her politics are weirder
Glen, think about it this way – in all seriousness, a demolition would be a great chance for rejuvenation in the coalition, a great chance to clear out the old structure, and bring in a new, truly honest, conservative approach. They have a chance to be reborn as a party of vision, and a chance to lose all the frankly unappealing aspects of the Abbott’s, Downer’s. I’m not suggesting those two will lose their seats necessarily, what I am saying is an influx of fresh political blood can only help the coalition and politics in Australia in general.
OK, I know many of us are happy tonight, but let’s not get too carried away and celebrate victory prematurely.
Remember the golden rule: NEVER, NEVER UNDERESTIMATE JOHN WINSTON HOWARD! Rudd has got to campaign like he’s the underdog and a fair way behind. No early triumphalism, a la Neil Kinnock in 1992, and we all know what happened to him.
Glen,
Full marks to you mate. You’re still commenting and having your say.
It’s easy to comment when the chips are up, but another when the chips are down.
But your suggestion about Julie Bishop! (sigh!!!!!!!!!!)
Considering her age and when you compare her to ALP members her age there is no comparing Nath its nice to see you have some good taste in older women its a side of you i havent seen lol.
I agree with this. The editorial writers (Chris Mitchell) realise Rudd has moved as far as he can on I.R., including junking some policies that Labor has had for 85 years. The editorial last week was obviously ground work. They showed Howard up for what he is – a do nothing opportunist with no real convinctions other than being P.M.
If you’re talking eye candy, the ALP member for Adelaide comes to mind.
Hi Adam, perhaps you’re mis-reading what I (and at the risk of paraphrasing the master, Mumble) are saying. I’m not doubting that there is swing on in the mortgage belt and more middle-lower income seats, although it looks to be larger in safe seats. But the ‘Howard battler’ term comes from the supposed special power of Howard to get ordinary working class voters to vote Liberal. Fraser arguably made more inroads when he was PM. Working voters were getting fed up with Labor well within the Hawke years. (Simon I think Kuwaiti sovereignty was about as meaningful as WMDs. I don’t remember Hawke saying Saddam was a CIA stooge in 1991).
Jubilation! Just viewed Lateline!
Suffice to repeat NBNP Episode 2 ‘I remain confident of a 57% Newspoll Tpp Labor result’.
Innate caution prevented my returning to my tip 58% previous Newspoll.
What a pleasure to watch Alex the Grate on Lateline!
Despatched more or less this to the GG earlier.
Golly, OZ
I spent several hours going through the recent and politically related blogs in the Australian. Just in the interests of my own straw poll.
Matt Price muses that maybe it’s only the Press Gallery, politicians et al who are observant of politics. I wonder where the bloggers fall in that scenario.
Whatever, the bloggers overwhelmingly want to see the back of John Howard. And they generally cite their reasons.
Leaving aside the big numbers eg Work Choices, Iraq, AWB and so, the tenor is the most striking theme. Use of fear as control, general unfairness, politician’s self interest and troughing, lies, deception, arrogance, past good luck, political chicanery, pork barrels, tired of same old etc.
The Oz must be aghast! Little wonder the paper is somewhat less disposed of late to bash Kevin Rudd. The bloggers have very long memories too, it appears. Despite the conventional wisdom. Nor has APEC got into full swing as yet, with man’s best friend yet to appear. Well, maybe one man’s. According to Lowy. According to almost anyone. Even if the terrorists show up, g forbid, it’s pretty clear that fear ain’t no longer a goer. Guess who will cop the blame?
The electorate may be chewing its nails, but I reckon the lead in the pencil will be the striking factor on the Big Day – OUT!
I await tomorrow’s Newspoll. Always exciting!
Will see if the Oz has the grace to allow that blog!
On Julie Bishop – I love Aussie Bobs description of many moons age:
“Cover girl for Hypnotism Monthly Magazine”.
It’s them eyes.
It’s been hard to pay attention to whatever she’s been saying since
Julie Bishop has that special appeal, just look at http://stilgherrian.com/politics/julie_bishop_neocon_sex_kitten/ …
Yes, I think this poll is too good to be true, but I am naturally a pessimist.
It would be very interesting to get a state by state and metro vs regions breakdown of the Newspoll. If it’s true that the swing is strongest in safe Lib seats, the margins might actually protect a lot of members, and Labor might not win as many seats as if the swing was uniform.
A 59% Labor vote would surely suggest that all states, including WA, must be swinging strongly to Rudd?
And I enjoyed the psychoanalysis from Ophuph Hucksake (153). Is Howard still at Stage 1?
How old is Julie Bishop?
primary
ALP 51
Gov 37
A good night with polls and everyone is getting horny.
I hope Turnbull can hold on to Wentworth and rebuild the Liberal Party. I’ll be happy to see some of these guys lose their seats, but there needs to be a credible opposition left when Election Night is over.
Pardon, William posted on wrong thread.
Jubilation! Just viewed Lateline!
Suffice to repeat NBNP Episode 2 ‘I remain confident of a 57% Newspoll Tpp Labor result’.
Innate caution prevented my returning to my tip 58% previous Newspoll.
What a pleasure to watch Alex the Grate on Lateline!
Despatched more or less this to the GG earlier.
Golly, OZ
I spent several hours going through the recent and politically related blogs in the Australian. Just in the interests of my own straw poll.
Matt Price muses that maybe it’s only the Press Gallery, politicians et al who are observant of politics. I wonder where the bloggers fall in that scenario.
Whatever, the bloggers overwhelmingly want to see the back of John Howard. And they generally cite their reasons.
Leaving aside the big numbers eg Work Choices, Iraq, AWB and so, the tenor is the most striking theme. Use of fear as control, general unfairness, politician’s self interest and troughing, lies, deception, arrogance, past good luck, political chicanery, pork barrels, tired of same old etc.
The Oz must be aghast! Little wonder the paper is somewhat less disposed of late to bash Kevin Rudd. The bloggers have very long memories too, it appears. Despite the conventional wisdom. Nor has APEC got into full swing as yet, with man’s best friend yet to appear. Well, maybe one man’s. According to Lowy. According to almost anyone. Even if the terrorists show up, g forbid, it’s pretty clear that fear ain’t no longer a goer. Guess who will cop the blame?
The electorate may be chewing its nails, but I reckon the lead in the pencil will be the striking factor on the Big Day – OUT!
I await tomorrow’s Newspoll. Always exciting!
Will see if the Oz has the grace to allow that blog!
I wonder if murdoch gets additional polls done to know what the real situation is? Maybe he knows Rudd has it by a big margin and is preparing a new bed.
Time for Costello to twist the knife and enjoy the dance.
EMAC we could have done that with a leadership change but oh well that’s hindsight oh well the worst we get is 3 terms of Rudd and by that stage Peter Dutton will be leading the Liberal Party that’s if he’s re-elected this year lol…
Well Neil im out here representing the ’silent minority’…which is unfortunately getting smaller as we speak…
Well if we do get a pumping like the PC of Canada in the 1993 Federal Election ill be the first to say bring back the good old United Australia Party or Nationalist Party because it’s not often one party is removed from office everywhere…
Still if the polls can go up that much in a short time frame they can come down just as fast…here’s hoping for a Ruddslip…
barbara, from Wikipedia.
Julie Isabel Bishop (born 17 July 1956)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julie_Bishop
BTW, ther is speculation that her current squeeze, Peter Natrass, will not be seeking re-election as Perth’s Lord Mayor (he is a LOT older than she is).
I’d bet the election is on December 8th, giving a 5 week campaign without a rate rise.
The point about the equine flu is that the majority of punters are pissed off that there are no races to bet on. They look for someone to blame which is the Govt through their dodgy quarantine procedures. I know many in the industry who believe this, true or not. While the mainstream media haven’t placed the blame anywhere, the callers to talkback on the National Racing Radio Network (yes, unbelievably there is one) continually blame the Govt for saving(!) their money. This is not an issue that will move the votes of 20% but it does affect a good 4-5%.
I agree Adam that the main reason for the consistently high ALP vote is WorkChoices. People want job security in a rising rate environment.
I cannot see the Coalition getting out of this one.
Shrike – the big swings in the safe government seats is nearly all in NSW and Qld.The non-rural safe gov seats in Qld arent homogenous, so large movements in relatively small demographic segments can deliver that Qld swing that Newspoll identified.
In NSW its more complicated because of the number and nature of the safe government seats – unfortunately we dont know which of those seats have the big swings, but low to middle income workers with 1.5 jobs, a mortgage and a household income of around 1000 to 1200 bucks a week will eat that weight for breakfast.
No other cohort in NSW will unless the safest of city based blue ribbon seats are swinging.
A 59:41 win to Labor would in terms of seats won equate to:
ALP: 104
COALITION: 44
INDEPENDENTS: 2
Pie in the sky stuff, but fun to dream about!
That’s an interesting idea. What would Rudd have to do to lose a 18 point lead over the course of (say) a 5 week campaign. In terms of pure hypotheticals, it’s obvious nothing personal could do it, simply because personal things now always appear as dirt. Unless he was a crossdresser I suppose.
No, for me, it would be unveiling one policy too far, something on the scale of the hospital takeover, but massively flawed and unthought out, something so obviously (key point, must be obvious to observers) flawed, that noone could vote for him in clear conscience. Anyone got any ideas of how to lose 18 points in 5 weeks? (sounds like a weight loss plan)
It will be interesting to see if a post-APEC leadership spill happens for the government. I know it seems highly unlikely because it would look very desperate, but the Liberals just might think that they have nothing to lose by at least trying to get a circuit breaker from a new leader.
And talk about deadwood on the front bench.
Ruddock’s had his day, Abbott’s too right wing for the public, Downer’s a national embarassment, Tinhead in Defence is a joke that, Andrews is a straight-up idiot, and Minchin is far too evil looking to be used in public.
That leaves Costello, Turnbull and Coonan as the presentable brains trust.
My own view is that Costello and Turnbull are their only real hope. Those two can find a ‘centre’ to put the Liberals back in: neoliberal, not socially conservative, and moderate republican.
Which of course, means the Rodent legacy wont even be written, let alone recalled fondly.
Anyone else, and the federal liberal party is going down for a generation, ALP 50s split style.
Next thing you know Downer will be using this website to crow about how Kevin Rudd’s supporters are towing his message about how certain they are of an ALP win.
Thanks Frank Calabrese. So Julie Bishop is of a Costelloesque vintage.
yep and replace them with…
Markus
Hawke
Morrison
Pyne
Of course Lefty on this poll, Costello and Turnbull are both looking for new jobs.
Where did PH get those primary figures from?
I agree with Piping Shrike and Mumble. The biggest swings agianst Labor in safe Labor seats occurred in the late 1980s. The 1987 and 1990 Federal elections for example saw huge swings in industrial and heavily unionised areas like the Hunter. Labor’s vote increased in those seats in the 1990s as the Greiner and Kennett governments got stuck into changing IR laws. I’ve always criticised the mis-use of the term ‘heartland’ in reference to Lindsay. If Lindsay was ‘heartland’ in 1996, what were the 49 seats Labor did win at that election? Lindsay was in Macquarie in 1975 and 1977 when it voted Liberal.
I wrote a long piece on the mis-use of ‘battler’ and ‘heartland’ by the media in Australian Quarterly in 1996/7. It come about because people confuse occupational and social status defintions of class. It is true the Australian Election Study in 1996 saw the occupational class variable explain very little difference in voting patterns. But its significance came roaring back in 1998, but the mortgage belt didn’t. The political beauty of the term battler is that it can apply to anyone struggling to make their ingoings and outgoings match, whatever their level of income.
My one caveat on 1996. There is a stronger argument for the class/battler equating in Queensland results than any other state, with at least one very good analysis of booth swing patterns being published on the subject.
Emac – my thoughts.
1. Stock Market Crash- Great Depression order of magnitude – say 9 points.
2. Iran nukes or is nuked – say another 9 points.
3. Credible witnesses and photographs of Mr. Rudd pimping transvestite dwarves… nah, in this climate that’d probably get Rudd back another 6 points to win the election comfortably. I can’t see how Mr. Rudd can stuff it up.
Antonio #110
Yep, I agree. I think it is Malcom’s moment. Even if he looses the elections he still retails his seat and he is a trickly target for the ALP.
Will he step up?
Visit 18 different strip clubs, in 18 different electorates?
Antony is right, you could never call a puter suburban seat an ALP heartland. Batman is the heartland of the ALP. Believe.
Opinion Piece from Sid Morris.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22339946-17803,00.html
Pussum Coitus, honestly, you are flogging that data in a manner that should only be done by consenting adults in private! Though I won’t nominate how many consenting adults.
188
From my mole inside The Australian.
Albert F – Turnbull will win if his margin is “really or truly” greater on an unaffected ALP/Lib split than the 2.6% margin we currently have. He then needs to get a swing lower than average and much lower than average if the Newspoll is correct. I think he would find it hard to withstand a national 12-13% swing.
I am thinking the swing might be 6-7% and end up 54/55%, which leaves a good majority. Turnbull could survive against this swing, but he is not in Gilmore up against the worst candidate ever.
thanks ph
Please let these figures carry till election day because I want to slap a yellow post-it note on Howards bald head that says “p-ss off, FACT”
Can you imagine television without John Howards head all over it. Ah the serenity.
Albert F. Probably not. I am just amazed at (and somewhat admiring of) the coalition’s unity. It would require a few backbenchers to speak out publicly, and say they were in deep shit and it was time for a new leader. I really can’t see anyone challenging Howard, because whoever did would probably still lose the election, and would get blamed for it. It would need Howard to step down for the good of the party.
Don’t forget that Howard predicted “anihilation” earlier in the year, but still didn’t step down.
I wonder how many parents who have “Saddle Club” kids are extracting revenge on Howard because of Equine Flu – imagine these parents trying to placate those crying kids when told they can’t go horse-riding etc.
Antony,
Getting back to Lindsay – I think any comparision with this area between 1975 and 1996 is difficult given the enormous increase in population in those 21 years.
For the same reason I also believe that it is wrong to call this a Labor heartland seat. As the price of housing became unachievable in inner and middle Sydney a significant number of people from the upper middle and professional classes moved to the west. Demographic evidence for this has existed since at least the middle nineties – I remember because I was in an article about the phenomenon that appeared in the SMH in 1993.
Those getting annoyed at all this Labor triumphalism – which I agree is a tad premature, but hard to resist – need to remember that it’s been a long time between drinks for ALP supporters, and that for 11 years we have been slandered as union hacks and thugs and unAustralian and supporters of terrorism and every other insult in the book. This government and its supporters have become extremely arrogant, hubristic and patronising, particularly since they won both Houses in 2004. Just watch some tapes of QT over the past two years. Downer and Abbott, in particular, but nearly all of them at times, have indulged themselves in sneering condescension and abuse of a most unseemly kind, condoned by the weakest Speaker in my memory. But hubris is always followed by nemesis. If this really is the end of the line for Howard, we can and will gloat, just as Liberals gloated in 1996. (And I don’t deny that Keating succumbed to hubris after 1993 as well). This is the nature of politics, and provided it is kept within the bounds of civilised conduct it does no harm. Get used to it.
Bennelong Resident,
Thanks for the clip on Hawke at Bennelong. He still has life in him and he made a lot of sense. Actually I have to admit I never voted for him but I should have.
Albert says:
“They have a chance to be reborn as a party of vision, and a chance to lose all the frankly unappealing aspects of the Abbott’s, Downer’s.
yep and replace them with…
Markus
Hawke
Morrison
Pyne”
Droll, very droll.
I’m not sure the Country is ready for a Hillsong Happy Clapper Opposition just yet.
Plus, that wouldn’t make the Exclusive Bretheren happy. They’d feel so left out.
Re: the Sid Morris piece.
Why do I get the feeling that Frank Luntz guy was sent over by Rupert to confirm his suspicions?
And the Shamaham has spoken
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22358688-17301,00.html
Well said Adam. We have all suffered terribly these past years, particularly since Tampa. If Howard had just stuck to the economy and not engaged in all the cultural wars, Work choices and Tampa, given us a republic, it would have been a better government.
Howard Hater says:
“if Ruddock actually had to go to preferences for once in his life, I’d be getting plastered and doing the happy dance naked all over my suburb”
I’ll be looking for the news coverage.
I think ACNielsen should be polling for Fairfax this weekend. If their result returns to 57 or 58 ALP 2PP after the previous 55 (it had been 57% or above all year up ’till then) then there’s really nothing left for Howard to do.
I disagree with those commenters tonight who think the election will be called immediately after APEC because the pressure on Howard will become too great otherwise. Howard has no interest in minimising Liberal losses. He only has one interest – his own personal one. Leaving the election date open means there is still the possibility of a miracle occurring. And that is his only hope now. He should have taken Arthur Sinodinos’ advice last year and retired gracefully. But, being a politician, he didn’t. They rarely do.
Amen Adam, amen.
Glen, (#147) rest assured that none of your seventeen personalities will ever be “half way to conceding the election”….
I’d like to put forward the idea that the commentariat and associated political blogosphere have grossly under-rated the impact of the Workchoices legislation because it doesn’t directly effect them.
I suspect most of us posters on these types of forums don’t work in a position that is covered by an industrial award and that Workchoices, however bad it is, will never touch us.
But put yourself in the poistion of a ‘Howard battler’ who does work under an award and voted for him in 2004.
In 2004 the ‘Howard battler’ followed the election campaign and got Honest John’s main message loud and clear; “you can only trust me on interest rates”. Nowhere in the campaign did the battler hear Howard talk about the urgent need to radically reform workplace relations and remove safeguards for minimum conditions and the ability to negotiate as a collective in the workplace.
Then a few weeks after winning control of both houses of parliament the battler then hears Howard saying that radical reform of workplace relations is now a must. Joining the dots, it now becomes obvious to the battler that he is at risk of being islolated in negotiating pay and conditions at work and that people like him will be forced onto AWA’s and have his pay screwed down to benefit business owners.
How would you think this battler feels?
Betrayed, had, screwed over or just a bit ambivalent?
I think this sort of voter forms the core of the proportion of people who have switched to Labor and are not going back to Howard no matter what he says or does. I also think this demographic underpins the rock solid 55%+ 2PP share of the vote Rudd has enjoyed for the last 6-7 months.
Adam, can you tell the tale of Stanley Melbourne Bruce. Then I will go to bed.
I like to think we are a sensible lot and this is the stripper-gate poll bounce.
That article of Shannahan’s is pure waffle. He couldn’t bring himself to say anything negative about the Howard’s position, other than that they had ‘run out of time’. How the hell does he get paid for that rubbish?
Antony – I have to flog it, sometimes within an inch of its life, simply because it is the only real time data we have.
I’m not a political scientist, dont pretend to be and fully realise that what I’m doing p*sses some of you guys off chronically. But quite frankly, using ambiguous real time polling data to tease out info about the underlying true state of the electorates voting intention and the composition of those intentions is no different to using consumer surveys, sub-market analysis or any number of areas that rely on using samples of real time data replete with uncertainty to project an underlying reality onto a broader population.
Good point canberra boy, Howard has a habit of clinging on, but Shanahan also makes one of his lonely coherent points of the year.
hmm, this won’t help Howard
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/03/2023067.htm
You mean stuff like “In the end Howard will be pragmatic and will go when he thinks he has his best chance, notwithstanding the public polls. ”
Oh really! And here I was thinking Howard would make the election when he thought he had the best chance of losing by as big a margin as possible.
Shanahan’s article might be a lot of waffle but it is a signal that the pressure on Howard to call the election from Labor, the media, and even the public is about to increase. Howard will not be able to escape this. He will have to call the election, if only for a long election campaign to begin.
But there is an additional pressure. Howard also needs to craft a whole new message. Clearly, his fear-mongering over the effects of a Labor government on the economy is not working, which has further been indicated by some recent surveys that suggest that Labor is gaining considerable ground on the “economic management” question.
Howard needs to find something new, but if he is forced to call the election in a week or two, he might end up going into the campaign still not knowing exactly what to run on.
Glen, I was wrong. One of the seventeen just has (#178)….
The prospect of Lord Alexander Downer being booted out of Mayo is so pleasurable there should be, and possibly soon will be, a law against it.
However my enjoyment is tempered by the propect that he may actually emerge from his role in this war and other atrocities triumphant, even if he losses Mayo.
Appointed as foreign affairs adviser or national security director for the Iraqi governent ?
Two elections after the tragedy of his narrow win over the Democrats, can anyone confirm whether with a swing of this magnitude the good people of Mayo may realise for me my dream of life in Australia without the insufferable Lord Alexander ‘Billy Bunter’ Downer.
He needs an a whole agenda. I mean, I heard something about “aspirational nationalism” for about two days before that got junked. I’ve heard about selling uranium to anyone who wants it (OK, sans-Iran), but what else is the government doing?
There is a fusion happening between wanting to vote for someone other than Howard, plus an absolutely lack of knowing what Howard wants to do. Those two things together is shifting votes to Rudd.
If I were a Liberal, I would be very angry that the government had wasted nine precious months in ineffective campaigning on non-issues and personal attacks.
I agree with Paul. We will not see the end of the Fu Manchu spectre of Downer. Like the cold, dead hand of Geoff Lake he will re-emerge in the hills of Adelaide, renamed the National Redoubt where he will hook up with former Leage of Rights associates in a last ditch attempt to save the Australian flag.
He could try incentinationalism.
Antony,
On another (poll-related) matter…
Can you explain to me why haven’t any polling companies ever tried to exit poll pre-poll voters during an election campaign?
Having worked on election campaigns for the last 20 years, I’ve seen the rise in popularity of pre-poll voting as more and more people discover it as a good way to avoid the hassle of polling day.
It occurred to me in the late 90’s that pre-poll voting now has a significant and representative sample of the voting public (especially in suburban electorates where it’s easy to get to a pre-polling booth) and that exit polling these voters would provide a valuable insight into how the rest of the electorate would vote on polling day.
My thinking here is based on the fact that this would be the only poll before an election that could remove the variable of voting intention changing between when participants were polled and polling day, because they have already actually voted.
I would have thought conducting this sort of poll in marginal, “bellwhether” electorates in the last week before polling day would make a great news story.
I can’t imagine any laws prohibiting this sort of poll, jsut as there are now laws prohibiting exit polls on polling day.
Am I missing something here or is it a good idea that Messrs Morgan, Lebovic & co. haven’t thought of?
The punters have pushed ALP’s chances of winning up to 70%. (betfair.com)
To put that in perspective its three-quarter time – 4 goals up.
Big last quarter required from team rodent – but I suspect they are out of legs.
aspiratiovation?
People have forgotten how bad it was under Labor the last time they were in office. 11 years is a long time and time heals all wounds and i guess people dont care about how bad things were under Keating…i suppose the average life span of a Government is 10-13 years at the maximum anyway i fear no political party will emulate the success Menzies in the 1950s and 1960s ever in Australian politics…
Adam i think it is a bit rich to talk about hubris when Rudd is going to the tabloids and to business people saying he’s going to win in a landslide…look hubris is a part of politics and neither side is free of it…
Paul Kavanagh i seriously doubt Downer would lose Mayo even in a Ruddslide…One reason the Coalition is behind is because they have been devoid of any grand policies (Murray Darling was one but Bracks put a stop to it)…sure investment funds are all well and good but people dont give a toss about them and it wins no votes no matter how many billion you put in them they want things they can get now and if they dont bring out anything soon they’ll truly be finished…they want something different and something fresh and atm Howard looks like neither either he needs an uber make over and new radically popular policies or the Liberal Party will be down to a rump come 2008.
It’s too late. The Libs have to run with what they’ve got. How often have we heard that you can’t fatten the pig on market day. Their best hope is that Labor makes a fundamental mistake.
securanationism
Glen Downer almost lost his seat once… doubt it’ll happen this election… but it did happen.
Also your source for Rudd going around talking about winning is Downer. Not reliable.
antiterrorprotectionism
Incentivation. For those that can remember Future Directions.
Simon, you are absolutely right. One of Howard’s big problems is that he has no obvious policy agenda for another term. He has spent this entire year attacking Rudd and Labor, hoping that he will make them look like the worst of two evils.
On top of this, he and his ministers seem to think that they are simply owed another term as some kind of reward for what they believe has been good economic management (which is an absolute joke, in my opinion). This has been clear from the comments from Abbott, Costello, and Downer, which have only fueled the general impression that they are all out of touch.
Why would Downer make that up im sure Downer knows people working in the tabloids and business executives who may have told him this i wouldnt be surprised if it were true…like 85% on this blog the election is already over for them…and when Beazley comes out and says he could of won the election its fair to say Rudd thinks he’ll be PM soon enough…
I wonder if this is a change from the aspirational voter (battle who doesn’t live on struggle street), have they achieved what they aspired to and now want to lock it in.
Also, it probably also represents the fact that the 18-30 can hardly remember a time when JH wasn’t in charge so are willing to give the other side a go. Its not a matter of “its time” like Gough, more a matter of “I wonder what it tastes like”
The biggest risk for Labor is that Rudd will make a mistake in trying to redress so many years and in the process make their only experience a negative one and thereby lock Labor out for another 3 terms.
Stop regurgitating Downer’s crap, it isn’t good for your health.
Votechoices!
Sign this pre-filled standard form.
Why would Downer make that up?
Glen,
That can’t be a serious question even from you.
This really is a bleak day for Shanahan, he suggests Howard should go ASAP, else he may face a challenge!
“The more time before an election is called, the greater the risk of panic-stricken Coalition MPs demanding a change of leadership.”
As I said(42), Malcolm Colless is going down with the ship:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/crunch_time_arrives_for_battered_pm/
Paul k if the hubris displayed by you and others on this blog is anything to go by you’d have to be nuts not to think Rudd is flamboyantly going around town saying he’s going to be the next top dog…god if you guys are getting so excited about one political opinion poll how over the moon must Rudd be…Downer is one of the more admirable members of the Coalition and one of the most honest members at that in my opinion…i have no reason to doubt what Lord Volde…i mean Lord Downer says.
Sorry – this is the correct one:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22356187-7583,00.html
What about Howard calling the election, and on the same day resigning to an organised transfer to Costello.
Kind of like Hayden to Hawke but in reverse.
If there internal polling is REALLY bad, then I think they will try anything.
Glen, Downer is the biggest embarassment to ever become a govt minister and there have been many. How can you believe a single word that comes out that buffoon’s mouth?
Next thing we know, you’d tell us that his Dept was not responsible for approving the $300 million bribes to Saddam Hussein.
Glen, you can make any argument you want but please use someone with a hint of credibility as a reference.
This is the typical hypocrtical crap Liberals spew forth. If a Labor leader doesn’t meet with business, then they are accussed of being too left wing to be P.M.. But if said Labor MP visits business leaders, or people in the media, then supposedly they are bragging about winning an election that has yet been called.
Why do Labor M.P.s have to live up to higher standards than Liberals?
He should have taken Arthur Sinodinos’ advice last year and retired gracefully. But, being a politician, he didn’t. They rarely do.
Canberra Boy 210
Pretty obvious now which of the two was the political brains behind the operation, and was smart enough to get out with his record intact.
Why would Downer make that up
Glen 238
Gee, Glen, I’m racking my brains real hard (truly), but just can’t imagine why.
How can he be responsible for something that the AWB did for God Sakes BPG get with the program!!!!!!
Please give these guys a fair go i know you hate them all but seriously for people who support a fair go why not show it when you sprout your hatefilled posts aimed at nothing more than personal character assassination…
I’m going to go watch the 2004 Election night coverage…that will cheer me up lol Watching Bob cringe at the figures come in will do more to ease this restless spirit as his hopes for General Wenck dims………………
That should be ‘Glen 240′.
Glen,
The good thing about being full of hubris is that I have the luxury of ignoring you, in the same way that most Australians are ignoring the Man of Steel. Howard is on the verge of making the Libs irrelevant. When they dump his far right wing policies maybe the people will listen again. But until then it’s over.
Glen, see I predicted your predictable response.
Again: Next thing we know, you’d tell us that his Dept was not responsible for approving the $300 million bribes to Saddam Hussein.
There was a process here that the Dept had to follow and it had to ensure Australia adheres to the UN Sanction Regime. Who was in charge of it in Australia? Could it be DFAT and Lord Dolly Downer?
AWB did the bribing under whose watch again, Glen???
With figures like this, even allowing for MOE, Labor’s gotta be on at least 56/57%.
I’m off to tropial FNQ for a holiday from 19th September, so if The Rodent goes early (as I suspect he must, now), I might just be sitting on a beach in Port Douglas, sipping those colourful drinks with the unbrellas in ‘em while the political equivalent of sack of Rome takes place in Canberra.
Pity, would have liked to have seen that.
I suppose I can get it all on the Kero telly.
Howard is not far right Paul K he may be of the dry’s of the Libs but that doesnt make him an extreme right winger…
Ha so you admit to your hubris…i knew you were full of it and now there it is straight from the horses mouth!
The Libs are by far irrelevant Paul and you shouldnt underestimate Howard regardless of how the rogue poll looks…
To BPG…
AWB conned everybody…did Downer tell them to do it…did Downer pocket any of the kick backs…did Downer find out about it and then cover it up….of course NOT…You’ll be wishing you had a true diplomat as Foreign Affairs Minister instead of that fool McClelland wow wont he be just fantastic!
Alexander Downer says Kevin Rudd has been telling newspaper editors that he’s going to win the election. I’m confused, why wouldn’t those newspapers publish stories about Rudd’s arrogant hubris? Oh… wait… it was “off-the-record”, right? So according to Tony Abbott it didn’t happen?
Glen,there has to be reason why the polls have been so bad for the Coalition for so long.You can’t say to the Australian people you think they’re having one big joke with you or sleepwalking their way to an election and not expect them to be a little p*ssed off.
Do you think the government should of been concentrating on policy rather than playing the man for the past 8 months?
Do you agree that the government going around saying that the world will go to hell under Labor,instead of concentrating on what they would do,has hurt them.?
The governments messages has been very confused of late Glen.
John Howard introduced WorkChoices and for 2 years refused point blank to admit that some people were going to be worse off,or that some Employers were going to use the changes to shaft people.It’s only when the polls were showing he was in deep trouble that he introduced his “Safety Net”.No other reason.
The Prime Minister had openly stated he was a Climate Change sceptic.Yet when the polls are showing this as an election issue he has a sudden conversion to the “Green Side”.But he won’t commit to any reduction targets.
The Prime Minister intervened in the amalgamations of Councils in Queensland and said that he would allow local people to vote in polls to decide if they wanted them or not,but then the Prime Minister stated that the location of Nuclear Power Stations would be decided by companies and no polls on their locations would held.A week later he retracted that and said he would.
Can you see where the PM is having a credibility problem.?The polls are reflecting this at the present.
Not Glen 240, Just Me, Glen 20. You know, that product used to cover up a bad smell. And Glen has been engaged in a mighty fine effort in attempting to cover up the stench emanating from a putrid and decaying Coalition.
sondeo,
Haven’t you heard? It’s a vast left wing conspiracy but all the Commies in the media. Can’t be anything that Howard has done.
So AWB conned Downer on bribes and Bush conned Howard on WMD?
Who conned who on interest rates, WorstChoices, Children Overboard, Solon, Haneef, GST and Quarantine Changes? It seems incompetence and mediocrity are still the best qualities of this Govt.
Of course if this is your benchmark Glen of good governance, Downer is a shining light. But then I really can’t understand why they are being trashed at the polls.
I agree the Libs are far from irrelevant: The Lord Mayor of Brisbane has a more constituents than the Tasmanian Premier.
But seriously, the Libs vacated the centre with Dorkchoices. And now they’ll pay the price.
Put those NSW Uglies out to pasture if you want an electoral future.
Absolutely. And that’s why people like me deserted them and will never go back until they dump all this right wing rubbish and get back to being the Liberal Party and not the Conservative Party. Once the election is over, let the purge of the right wingers begin in the Liberal Party begin.
I think that will only happen if Turnbull is leader, with say Andrew Robb as deputy.
Costello is a social moderate, but too gutless to take anyone on, especially Howard.
Yes, definitely Just Me #252 and whomever else.
Long thought that Mr Arthur Sinodinos’ gentle protestations that Howard, not he, nominated the game plan of the day was a modest gesture.
Mr Sinodinos’ departure heralded Howard’s demise. He got out I think, shortly after Kevin Rudd arrived on the leader scene?
Howard has not put a foot right, ever since. So, yep.
Here’s the Newspoll figures:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/4sep-newspoll.jpg
Meh bring back the United Australia Party or the Nationalists if that’s the case….
Viva Joseph Lyons and Stanley Melbourne Bruce
Howard is no saint but at least i know what im getting from him fiscal conservatism, strong defence and national security and tough immigration controls what do we get with Rudd a pipe dream…Rudd being elected Prime Minister with so little inexperience will end up being a Dudd and full of Krudd…How stupid can you be to say Rudd is a leader and has experience i mean for God’s Sake! to elect a man whose been a leader of anything for less than 10 months…quite frankly you get what you pay for and if the Australian people want inexperience you can get the result of inexperience….and as usual they’ll come crying back into the arms of the Coalition when Labor have given us another recession…
A lotof Horse owners in Gippsland.. McGauran may be feeling the cold winds of change! Gippsland was notionally marginal in 2004 before the Latham implosion, and fear of interest rises. Also turmoil in the ALP branches in TRaralgon, and the timber industry backlash there and in the East of the seat are factors that won’t repeat this time. A seat to watch!
BTW, nice one, Lexy #259.. the technical phrase is “hoisting them on their own petard”
Also, re Glen: General Grant said of the Confederate soldiers : “They fought bravely for their cause, although it was the worst cause anyone ever fought for” Roll on Appomatox!
I predict they may possibly need at least one more election loss before they come to their senses. There’ll be all kinds of excuses on why they lost this one which they’ll use until the penny drops. They just need the correct leader to take them back to their roots. The days of the Neo Coms are fading all over the world.
Glen,
Look on the bright side. Things can’t get much worse for the Libs.
Performance RUDD
+: 66! (This is the highest since it was 68 on the 11 – 13 of May)
-: 19
Performance HOWARD
+: 46
-: 44
Thanks Simon Howson
Sweeter than pork crackle.
Labor rat – enough said.
Only experience Howard had before becoming P.M. was being a failed treasurer in a failed government.
If the U.S. and Japan go into recession, then we will too. A big problem with the current government is that it has taken a lot of credit for things it wasn’t responsible for. Now bad things have happened it is getting the blame even though in some circumstances it didn’t cause them. But that’s what you get for running such a cynical poll driven government that lacks new ideas or the ticker to do tough things.
Its this late i feel like a little German to lift my spirits…
Ha poll driven that’s Rudd to a tee he wouldnt know what side of the bed to get out of every morning if the pollsters havent told him!
Wenck kommt und er holt Zerstörung nach der ArbeitsPartei und ihre Nachfolger… die Anschlüße willen bankrott dieses Land und alle Ausführungen Howard’s sind verlorene… Schraube dieses im, also das Bumsen pissed weg von im Augenblick… verdienen uns nicht, uns zu verlieren haben getan nichts mögliche Wahlen Arbeit des falschen Stabes, aber thats eine Last des Mistah Gottfluches, den sie zu Hölle im bumsendem Krankem zum Tod des Debattierens von Politik, wenn du mich für Sein konservativ dort einsackst nichts falsch mit Sein konservatives Rudd ist, zerstören Australien und krankes Lachen, wenn er es allen oben bummelt!
Gute Nacht grausame Welt, die ich am thee ersteche
269 Glen:
Howard is not a fiscal conservative. He’s a dangerous fiscal radical. He’s the biggest spending PM in history.
His spending over the last 5 years can only be described as reckless and irresponsible. Treasury warned him that his huge spending sprees will put upward pressure on inflation and thereby interest rates, and he ignored this advice.
Put simply, he puts his own interests in relection above the national interest and the hundreds of thousands of families that depend on interest rates not rising.
And BTW the idea that his government has wiped out the Federal Government’s debt is a lie perpetuated by Costello. The Federal Government currently has $56 billion in debt outstanding. Go here to see for yourself: http://www.aofm.gov.au/content/debt_issuance.asp.
All that Glen to say “Libs rooted”
Oom Pa Pa Oom Pa Pa
That’s how it goes
Oom Pa Pa Oom Pa Pa
Every one knows
LOL! Bush cosying up to Rudd:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5638780,00.jpg
So what has happened to the Greens: 3% in the newspoll
leaves some room for improvement
2% went from the greens to ALP primary
2% went from the liberals to ALP primary
Time for bed. But tomorrow will go down to the cellar to dust off that jeroboam of champagne. Got a feeling I might be using it in a couple of months.
paul k writes:
“Absolutely. And that’s why people like me deserted them and will never go back until they dump all this right wing rubbish and get back to being the Liberal Party and not the Conservative Party. Once the election is over, let the purge of the right wingers begin in the Liberal Party begin.”
Do you really think it can happen? I think the Labor party has become the liberal party and the Liberal party has become the conservative party.
It would be simpler to change the party names.
For the Liberal Party to move back to the center the bitter conservatives have to quickly leave stage right (without a fight) and new middle of the road members have to enter stage left.
The issue is, why would a reasonable person bother getting involved. I think it will be like England. The conservatives will put their bitterness before winning elections and Labor will continue to distance itself from the unions.
The center has won, the losers are the extreme left and the union movement because they lost their party to the center and liberals (small l) because they have to move to the Labor party. The extreme right has claimed the Liberal party and I doubt they will give it up without a fight.
One nation has shown us that the extreme right is worth about 10% of the vote, I expect the Liberals over time to claim that percentage and leave the stage in much the same way the country party has. After this election the Liberals will not be in power in any state or federally, they have destroyed their heritage. There are some quality people in the party but in this ideologically driven government you find them on the back bench.
Will the quality stay
Menzie must be rotating in his grave.
Not Glen 240, Just Me, Glen 20. You know, that product used to cover up a bad smell. And Glen has been engaged in a mighty fine effort in attempting to cover up the stench emanating from a putrid and decaying Coalition.
Fulvio Sammut 261
Ha ha ha. You gotta admire Glen’s tenacity in the face of hard reality. Full points there. He is a good little foot soldier. Don’t worry, Glen, spending time in the wilderness is good for one’s soul.
I notice that his fellow travellers, Nostradamus and Mr Kaye, have been remarkably quiet of late.
Dorkchoices
Lefty E 264
Ha ha ha. Good one.
Mr Sinodinos’ departure heralded Howard’s demise.
Crikey Whitey 267
It could be that Mr Sinodino’s departure sealed Howard’s demise.
Look on the bright side. Things can’t get much worse for the Libs.
paul k 272
Oh yes they can. If it turns out to be a rout, then watch for the post-election fun and games as they try to find an electorally acceptable leader.
Crikey Whitey 279
Oom Pa Pa Oom Pa Pa
That’s how it goes
Oom Pa Pa Oom Pa Pa
Every one knows
They all suppose what they want to suppose
When they hear Oom Pa Pa
nice summary Charles, very cogent for this time of night! The Libs are in trouble aren’t they…
Is it just me, or on Lateline tonight did Downer tell everyone in Sydney to get stuffed?
They were discussing the Fence and its impact on Sydneysiders… and Downer basically said quite undiplomatically that ‘there are more people who live outside Sydney than live there’ and that they weren’t troubled by the Fence. I was quite surprised at the language.
I’ve only ever come to Downer’s defence once before, and that was when he was being criticised for shedding tears over the death and injury of journalists in the Indonesian air disaster. I said at the time his distress was genuine, and it was.
And now I must do so a second time. Some scallywag on this thread suggested earlier that the good Lord was lewdly lusting and leering over the lovely Leigh in the Lateline interview. I didn’t think so. Honi soit qui mal y pense. A quick perve at the luscious cleavage perhaps, but that’s all. What man wouldn’t?
Sorry, I’m forgetting Kev.
This Newspoll is a ROGUE it is way out of line to all the other polls and you leftist trolls are deluded in thinking that there has been any movement over the last few weeks to your rump of a team.
It does show, however, that Mr Howard has a net approval of +2 after 11 and a half years in office, these figures are absolutely sensational when you consider that he has been in the top job for that long. On the other hand, Krudd has NO experience NO policy NO vision, would turn Australia back into a union rats nest, appease the terrorists, allow the nation to be overrun with refugees (after Dullard chose to end the Pacific Solution), force a republic on us after the people unequivocably voted against one only 8 years ago, and cause double digit interest rates, double digit unemployment, double digit inflation. Only people with double digit IQs will vote Labor.
Of course, Australians as a whole are not that stupid, and that is why Howard will be reelected…… And a conservative Republican will get in for US next year as well. Indeed, this is not the end, even when Howard retires, of his own accord, his reign will only be the beginning of a Conservative Golden Era for our Great Commonwealth…..
Glen:
If the Liberals are going to recover from this there has to be a little bit of honesty.
Every government in my lifetime ( including Whitlam) has contributed to our well being. Whitlam reduced our tariff barriers and opened up diplomatic ties with China. If we move to the two recent governments, Keating gave us compulsory superannuation ( we have a small hope of saving the capital needed to run the country), pulled the teeth of the union movement and opened up the financial markets. From the recent Government we got the GST, with the service economy becoming bigger and bigger it was unfair and damaging to manufacture to have such a narrow tax base.
Looking back on the last 11 years there is very little else the current government can be proud of; unless you support a foreign debt that is at the highest level ever ; or support a higher proportion of the GDP being used by the government .
The current front bench are a bunch of intellectual lightweights, there pandering to our zenaphobic tendencies to win elections has damaged our society and our international reputation.
There are many changes that this country needs to move forward successfully. Further increasing our saving rate, dealing with the impending age care crises are examples. Unions bashing, denigrating sections of our society, wasting billions on Bush’s crusade are not.
The current government has proved they don’t have the ability to make the changes needed. the Liberal party has proved they aren’t capable of making the people changes needed. The electorate is going to do it for them.
Will Rudds Govermnent do better? Who knows, but based on previous Labor Government performance they will do good thing, they will make mistakes, just like Liberal Governments. However based on previous Federal Labor Governments I do expect they will try new ideas, some will work, some won’t.
If the Liberal Party is going to recover from this you are going to have to find a well of bright people to tap. You are not going to tap that well if the bright people first have to deal with a bunch of air heads whose thought process hasn’t got past 1950 and whose only contribution to the debate is union, union, union; stripper stripper stripper. .
Rinky dinky Pop pip and HEY HO!
Nostradamus has arrived in style, and has performed a half-twist with a pike (hold the mayo)! Before shouting at some cashew nuts and putting the bricks to bed, he finds time in his busy schedule to announce an imminent crushing defeat in the polls for the ALP!
Off you go now, nostro! I hear the baby vacuum cleaner crying for his bottle of cat juice!
Nostradamus:
Grow up. The Liberal party are going to lose this election and they are going to lose it hard. Based on the performance of the front bench over the last few months they deserve to.
Trying to run over the states, alienating more minority groups in an attempt to find a wedge and carrying on like a bunch of sanctimonious twits over a visit to a bar that has strippers. It’s gone past being entertaining it’s a bloody embarrassment.
Yes, indeed. Plans are afoot to dispense with democracy altogether. In its place all enrolled voters will receive a picture of a kitten. Any time you feel the urge to not vote liberal, you’ll be subtly reminded: LOOK AT THE KITTEN!! THIS KITTEN WILL PROBABLY DIE IF VOTE FOR THE LABOR PARTY!!
Actually, when I think of it, this sounds like the Singaporean model.
“And a conservative Republican will get in for US next year as well.”
As someone who actually lives in the United States, I can assure you that you are full of shit. Mitt Romney, who will likely win the primary, is a Mormon, which will harm him in the South, which the GOP needs to sweep to win. His flip-flops on abortion and gay rights will also hurt him against the hard right that he needs to court. In the event that he does not win the primary, Rudy Giuliani is pretty socially liberal, and his constant referencing of 9/11 will backfire like John Kerry’s constant referencing of Vietnam did him in. Fred Thompson, who is to announce on Sept. 6, is sort of an empty suit that disillusioned GOP voters are casting their hopes upon (very much like Francois Bayrou in France was to many voters), but will likely fizzle as well.
Moreover, a recent Pew (I believe) poll showed that ~50% of Americans now consider themselves Democrats, as opposed to ~35% for Republicans.
SirEggo Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 10:35 pm
“This is will set this site into meltdown. If 59-41 was the result on election day, how many seats would the ALP win?
We ain’t seeing an October election now….. ”
I might be bucking the trend here, but I think he will go in October or early November. Waiting will ONLY make it worse. I don’t think that the coalition will want it even worse than this (59/41) but that is what is staring them in the face. The interest rates will go up in November and that won’t help the coalition. The public would crucify him even MORE if he had an election over the Christmas holiday period. There is NO potential for any good to come from waiting. Oh, the folks who are out of business albeit temporarily in NSW and QLD due to the horse flu – for every day he waits past the earliest possible election date (assuming calling next week after APEC and minimum campaign period), he will lose more and more of their votes.
He is done and dusted, there is no white horse coming in on the political horizon to save him. His only potential white horse [in his opinion] is GWB and if anything, GWB will help him with the shovel to dig his own grave even further ;-D …..
Re (123),
” Wow what a country i have to look forward too….if Rudd gets in
…….. A Republic + Changing the Flag …….. ”
There is absolutely nothing wrong with either of these. I am a dual citizen (USA) and if I wanted to live in a country where the Queen was HOS I would have moved to England. I didn’t and consider myself now Australian although I retain USA citizenship [just so I can enjoy the pleasure of voting against the Republicans]. If there is anyone here who is a monarchist, suggest you move back to England when the Republic comes to pass if you don’t like it.
Nostradamus #289 – keep those satirical comments coming! I haven’t laughed so much in ages.
Perhaps you could further bolster your flair for political comedy by teaming up on Election Night with fellow eccentrics Glen and Cerdic Conan and entertaining us all with spoof predictions of a very late undetected swing to the Coalition which will get them an unprecedented landslide victory.
I’m sure the latest Newspoll was a “rogue poll” just like the most recent Galaxy, Morgan (phone poll), AC Nielsen …
Re (Michael @ 138),
” I have already decided to tape the election result that I can watch it over sober and watch the good moments. (Assuming they are good ones.)”
I usually like to work at elections. I worked at the NSW state election in March 2007 this year. However, if I am offered a spot working at the Federal election this year, I am turning it down. Do NOT want to miss watching the returns and hearing the speeches this election night. I don’t need several hundred dollars that badly ;-D …..
170 posts in the first hour of this thread……is that a record?
hmmmmm
*Looks at polling, shakes head in disbelief, decides to ignore all future polling and wait for election*
This poll is not an outlier, it would have been affected by the Equine Flu.
Howard’s poor reaction to this national crisis, his initial inertia whilst he cast aound for blame and his paltry offer to those affected will count hard against him.
Howard has finally admitted that his cuts to the quarantine facility were something the racing industry warned him not to do and produced the letters to prove it.
This crisis will drag on and will affect the Melbourne Cup with no chance of overseas horses making it and slim chance of interstate horses being there.. Sydneys spring carnival is dead and Qld has been badly hit.
Howard may even go before November 6 to avoid further anger over a 2nd rate Cup day.
Howard underestimated the affect on people from the virus, it is not just the 80,000 directly employed by the industry who he offered a paltry $50 each, it is the hospitality workers also and the TAB staff and of course the punters who look forward to a flutter on the horses and trots. Did Howard’s close association with the Exclusive Brethren and Family First cloud his judgment on this, did he feel gambling is bad and people should be spending time with their families so this flu was not such a bad thing.
The racing industry pumps 12 billion a year into the economy and Howard has treated them very shabbily.
Centrebet now has the Coalition at 2.70 – the ALP at 1.47
Ouch
There do seem to be inexplicable movements in the polls, which is either noise, or softish support.
But the ’softness’ appears mostly on the government side. Unless something dramatic occurs, Labor is getting close to locking in a landslide outcome.
Even if there is a major ‘correction’ during or because of the calling of the campaign, the Coalition is (gauging by Rod Cameron’s ‘leak’) nearly 3% shy of the position they need to be in to even have a sniff of winning.
Ooh-aaah ! Cbet 7.30 am est.
Team Rodent: $2.70
Team Ruddster: $1.47
Just another one of those pesky “minor aberrations” eh, Glen?
Glen,
Howard himself said that he is the most conservative PM the country has ever seen. If its OK with the Rodent, it should be OK with you.
And the pressure must be getting to Dolly Downer. He looked seriously second hand tonight. Half moons under each eye, hair that should have been trimmed three weeks ago and wearing a horse blanket that looked like it had been slept in. I think there is some back room info that baby Alex isn’t sharing with us.
Seen SK about?
Heading off to lawn bowls today.
:) … Using that to frame an analogy, there are 2 ends to go in their (Rudd and Howard) singles match. Rudd is ahead by a dozen. Even a couple of successful drives by Howard to get 8 in the last 2 ends won’t help him.
GONE …….
Shrike (and Peter B) – i luvs yr blogs for their alternative insights and style.
But the denialism about IR being a positive for Labor is as bad as the reverse spectre of unionists who’ll be saying Rudd owes them the election.
* ‘WorkChoices’ was an unnecessary (as you blog) step too far by Howard. That ‘too far’ is important: the ACTU campaign was critical in establishing it in the zeitgeist. It certainly dealt Beazley back into the game. Possum’s graphs seem to demonstrate it was worth close to an enduring 2% for Labor.
* Howard battlers may be inflated by the media. But there are studies showing that a surprising number of unionists voted Liberal in the past few elections. Remember this is off a record low union base – ie these are NOT closed-shop union conscripts, but core unionists who in previous generations were not inclined to vote conservative. It is daft to suggest IR hasn’t been important in shifting these voters, even if it is true that the decline in the ‘war on terror’ has contributed. These are voters Howard couldn’t afford to alienate given the steady and continuing shift of higher income/professionals/urbans to Labor.
* The constant refrain that ‘WorkChoices’ hasn’t hurt millions of people or that Rudd’s policy is not radical ‘rollback’ (for reasons of the business orientation of modern Labor more than a defensive poll-driven measure) are beside the point. Always have been.
Beazley’s ’slow burn’ was right. Outside the blogosphere you realise how people see IR as emblematic, not an issue limited to itself: emblematic of a concern that economics don’t trump society/family time etc. You also realise how many middle class folk resent seeing their kids lose penalty rates etc, at the time in their life when they are teaching them the protestant values. And people aren’t dumb: they know IR reform was about insulating profitability in the next downturn. That’s why it is feared: and perversely, it was Howard’s best chance to defend it (’Only I make the tough calls; we need to ensure employment stays high if the economy tanks’). Instead the LIberals have focused on a weak union movement, and metaphors about a forumula 1 economy, which only leave people wondering why, if things are so great, their pay packets aren’t burgeoning in line with profits.
Maybe the man of steel is getting rusty? Lateline is on the ABC site for those who missed the Leigh Sales shirt.
Changing leadership won’t help. They have to ditch their policies. IR, nuclear power plants, Iraq and sign Kyoto. That will look like sheer desperation. Which still won’t work.
For disenfranchised Gippslander 270. Maffra had a swing of 16% to the independents in Kennetts loss. After they sold off the Water Commission. So McGuaren may go as well. I think his seat needs a swing under 5%.
I’d say the problem is almost 90% leadership. People are just sick of being lied to by Howard and seeing him on every news for 11 years, sometimes in the most tangential stories.
The Libs problem is that they haven’t really bothered to think about future leadership and to prepare a handover. They literally have noone. I personally think Malcolm Turnbull is a dud and will flop as an Opposition leader much as Beasley did, he doesn’t have the common touch. Abbot is revolting, Nelson and Bishop are nobodies. Downer? You have to admit it’d be a laugh!
There must be some massive swings taking place somewhere. A uniform swing of the magnitude suggested in this poll would see Costello lose Higgins, highly unlikely.
So where are these massive swings happening? Or will this be the first time a leader and treasurer lose their seats?
Enjoyed your comments, Julie. (I also enjoy voting against the Republicans in US elections.) This remark caught my attention: “Oh, the folks who are out of business albeit temporarily in NSW and QLD due to the horse flu – for every day he waits past the earliest possible election date … he will lose more and more of their votes.” I tend to agree. For NSW, a disproportionate number of those voters reside in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, in the vicinity of Randwick Racecourse. There are two federal seats that take in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs: Wentworth and Kingsford Smith. Just what Turnbull needs!
McGauran’s margin has been eroded by recent re-distributions of Gippsland. Not sure of the exact margin, but 5% is in the ballpark.
Fly on the wall says:-
The knives are being unsheathed and sharpened.
Who will make the first move?
I do enjoy Nostradamus’ posts (#289). I vaguely remember reading somewhere that he is actually an ALP supporter who trolls this and other blogs for a bit of fun. Of course I know that one should not feed the trolls but I have to express my (quite sincere) admiration for today’s effort.
I loved “…these figures are absolutely sensational…” and “…the beginning of a Conservative Golden Era for our Great Commonwealth.” I could almost hear him cackling as he wrote it.
Marvellous stuff.
Now I am looking forward to the post-election ‘war-crime’ trials; Howard for lying about Iraq, Ruddock for Tampa, Downer for AWB. Sorry, just dreaming.
Nostrodamus: you’re good for entertainment value at least.
I seriously doubt Costello or Downer will lose their seats, but if I was a Coalition backbencher on a 5-10% margin, I’d be getting seriously concerned right now. Seats like Cook or Hughes in N.S.W could be ones to watch on election night.
3 N.S.W seats that Labor must have a realistic chance of winning: Page, Patterson and Robertson.
I think Parramatta, Lindsay, Macquarie, Eden Monaro AND Bennelong are potential pickups for Rudd.
Ruawake,
It is interesting to speculate on where the swings will occour. At the moment the ALP seems to be getting a “Goldilocks” swing (ie just right). The ALP is getting big swings in exactly the areas where there are a lot of seats to be won (NSW, QLD coalition seats).
The swings in Vic are not big enough to worry Costello – but there are up to 6 seats that could fall (I expect that ALP is only budgeting on 1 or 2 in Victoria). SA will deliver 3 or 4, WA might cough up 1 or 2 and TAS will be a clean sweep.
It the current voting pattern combines with a high 2PP to the ALP then Rudd could be heading to a record ALP victory.
Long way to go though.
I’m reminded of Dolly Downer being practically in tears on the 7.30 Report after the 57/43 Galaxy Poll. It has now been all confirmed with this 59/41 Newspoll.
Glen, Nostral, Steven & Cerdic, remember the good old days “We decide who comes to this country and the circumstances which they come”.
Now it’s “The buck stops with me”.
So beautifully said Prime Minister Rudd.
Betfair: ALP 1.46 / LIB 2.96. Yep it’s getting ugly. LOL.
Has anybody noticed the IR adds by the Nurses Association. They are going to cut through with the people real bad. This could end up being an Australian record landslide win. UO BYO TAY.
If Downer and Vaile didn’t know what was happening with AWB then the best that could be said of them is they are incompetent. Under any halfway serious application of the conventions of responsible government they would have resigned.
Downer is in no danger in Mao. The democrats at their zenith with a popular candidate in John Schumann appealing to the centre and preferenced from the left forced him to preferences but the current fringe dwelling Democrat rump have a snowball’s chance in Hades of mounting any sort of serious challenge now.
Newspoll seems a little way out, even with a trend back to the ALP and at the limits of margin of error it does seem rogue. There really hasn’t been any new major issues over the last few weeks to cause such a movement.
“”People will also ask themselves whether it is worth the risk of handing over the management of this country to an inexperienced group of people, and ending up with a situation where every government in this country is a Labor government. They are things that will work in our favour as the election comes closer.”
Seems Howard has given up on union-bashing. Looks like the latest fear-mongering is wall-to-wall Labor governments and the old line about inexperience.
His re-election platform is getting VERY thin.
Victoria is a mystery: will the ALP pick up any more seats from that state? Perhaps only Deakin, La Trobe and Corrangamite look like possibilities. I’d forget about Higgins.
Kevin Andrew’s seat of Menzies: maybe a decent swing against him there over the Haneef stuffup?
Aagghhhh….. must not feed trolls!
OK Nostra, I’ll bite. How will Australia be overrun with refugees if the “Pacific Solution” is unwound? Feel free to use actual figures on refugee numbers through the nineties (hell, extrapolate them logarithmically, if you want) and don’t forget to reference the economic impact of refugees that are welcomed and integrated into a society rather than shut in cages.
There’s no such a thing as a rogue poll?
Googling on that phrase brings up, among other things, the following at :
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2006/01/polls-and-pundits.html
“Second, there’s no such thing as the 1 in 20 poll. It’s a hypothetical concept. What a true rogue poll is is a poll in which everything was done correctly, and a result outside of the margin of error occurs. Show me a poll that was wrong, and I’ll show you a mistake that a pollster made (question wording, sample design, interviewer bias, timing, etc).”
If you look at the years and years of fortnightly polling that have accumulated in Australia, “rogue polls†are hard to find. In the past 6 months there have been 45 poll results published and only 2 of them have fallen on or outside the 95% confidence limits about the trend line. Today’s Newspoll is not one of them (they were the Galaxy in June and the most recent Morgan phone poll). Two polls outside the limits is exactly what you’d expect if the statistics behave normally and there are no errors by the pollsters. But even these are NOT “rogue†polls anyway- they are reporting accurately what was in the sample, they’re not “wrong†even in the sense of “sampling errorâ€.
The 95% confidence limits on the predicted ALP TPP for mid-November are currently (50.5% – 58.6%), which is looking a tad uncomfortable for the Government, but still somewhat open. IF things keep going the way they have been, and a dozen other caveats turn out to be baseless, and we assume the Government needs to haul the Australia-wide ALP TPP back to about 51% to scrape in, then one could say that the probability of a Labor victory is about 90%.
Each poll is an incremental grain of sand onto the balance and it is not worth staying up late with your heart in your mouth wondering what Newspoll is going to show and especially not frothing at the mouth about whether it is a “rogue†or not.
Looks like Dennis Shanahan was right after all about the importance of the preferred prime minister ratings.
Kevin Rudd’s rating is 48% and John Howard’s 37%, ALP primary is 51%, Coalition’s 37%.
We have a presidential style election.
It seems the electorate prefers the younger version of John Howard.
Final result? I would guess 53% ALP to 47% Coalition now.
nostradamus “these figures are absolutely sensational”. First time I’ve agreed with you, but they are sensational for Labor, you fool. Your comments are hilarious
In regard to John Howard’s claims of experience on the ALP front bench I refer him to his own comments on the Today Show on 6 October 1997.
Leibmann: This is it the, this is the Ministry that’s going to restore public confidence in your leadership, in your government and get you to the next election.
PM: Well I don’t believe there’s a lack of public confidence in either, certainly not…
Leibmann: Well I’d argue on that.
PM: Well we might, but it’s a very strong team, it contains mroe changes than people expected. I’ve promoted some people who have performed exceptionally well and I’ve altered the responsibilities of other and I think, overall, it’s a very strong team.
Leibmann: You’ve had to dig pretty deap though, Mark Vaile last Friday as a humble back bencher, four years experience in the Parliament. He’s gone from being one fo the troops sitting around the boardroom table and young Mr Thomson, Andrew Thomson, he’s only been in Parliament…
PM: Well that doesn’t matter. I remember a bloke who entered Parliament in 1974 who was reasurer in 1977, so there’s nothing unusal about that…
So Howard himself says experience is not necessary, at least parliamentary. He himself isn’t exactly the most experienced person in the world. Costello? Not him either.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Howard-hints-he-will-stay-on-in-politics/2007/09/04/1188783197003.html
“Prime Minister John Howard has hinted he has no plans to leave national politics for several years.
In an interview to mark the 40th anniversary of ABC radio’s AM program, the 68-year-old prime minister said he hoped to continue his regular appearances on the agenda-setting show.
“I can remember in opposition, on issues like industrial relations the AM program was a great vehicle for arguing the case of a freer industrial relations system. Still is,” Mr Howard told ABC radio.
“I’m still planning to appear on it for some years yet, so I look forward to the next interview.”
The comment suggests retirement may not be in Mr Howard’s mind if he wins the upcoming election.
Leadership tensions erupted again last month when it was revealed Treasurer Peter Costello told journalists in 2005 that he planned to “destroy” Mr Howard’s leadership if he did not hand over the top job the following year.”
So, does this suggest that Howard is going to guarantee he will serve out a full term if re-elected? Is this part of the strategy now? Costello will be happy…
John Howard may replace John Laws later this year. Wouldn’t that be great?
Howard Hater Says:
“Victoria is a mystery: will the ALP pick up any more seats from that state? Perhaps only Deakin, La Trobe and Corrangamite look like possibilities. I’d forget about Higgins.”
I don’t believe the swing will be as large in Victoria ( Labor already has a fair share of seats) , and I still don’t believe the Liberals will lose Corrangamite. However the member ( Stewart McArthur) should have been retired and if the swing is more than 6% he will be.
The Equine Flu inquiry is going to work against Howard et al. Another story about the cynical nature of Howard.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/04/2023203.htm
Tom
Howard Hater Says:
“Victoria is a mystery: will the ALP pick up any more seats from that state? Perhaps only Deakin, La Trobe and Corrangamite look like possibilities. I’d forget about Higgins.â€
I’m in Deakin (Chisholm just over the road). We haven’t been hearing so much from our member lately. There was a time when the local paper had a picture of Phil Baressi on nearly every page. Now, you never hear nor see him anywhere.
I reckon Baressi will lose. In the 2001 election Deakin was a marginal seat (1.7%). But in 2004, Latham scared everyone I know out here in the ‘burbs and pushed the margin to 5% making it a safe-ish seat. Consequently, I suspect much of that 5% is ’soft’ and if there’s a national swing, the seat will go to the ALP fairly readily.
However, there is the disturbing fact that Deakin has only ever been won by the ALP once in its seventy year history. Also, the candidate is some union hack I’ve never heard of. I’ll vote for him, but I wish they could have found someone else.
J, William
Yeah, I wonder whether they hand out a link to this website at ALP branch meetings, LOL, there certainly is a lot of champagne tonight!!
I agree with Possum, Adam, even with a pessimistic view of the poll it still confirms the “bedrock” 10 point (or so) margin to the ALP at this stage.
I disagree, however, that one poll being so strong “must mean” that even the WA has swung Labor. That is really pulling one out of an orifice. Assuming an even spread across Australia for this sample, the sample size is far too small (and not given by state anyway!) to assume this. On the basis of commentary and local polling, it would appear that:
WA: Still quite keen for the coalition. Mining & Labor’s IR Laws a sticker here.
NSW: Hard core Labor at this stage
VIC: Quite good support for ALP, particularly a chance in marginal Lib seats
SA: Hard core Labor, particularly after Rann’s good showing and high support levels
TAS: Lib seats a “Latham gift” and will return.. Labor
QLD: Wild card. Always is. Schizophrenic voters and largely dependent on showbags handed out in election. Labor with 6 out of 29 seats. It is no mistake at all that Labor chose a Queenslander for this tilt. My guess is, with some redistributions and a high proportion of “battlers” migrating to paradise that Labor has a strong chance. Even stronger given FFPs current stronger affinity for the ALP. They have been burnt by Howard and the Libs and are not happy at all with the tidal wave to the right. IR policies show a lack of compassion and the FFP is sick of loyalty to Banks and Big Business from the Libs that impacts our weekly budgets.
ACT: Labor, strongly so.
NT: Wild card, Interventions: mixed view but fed up with Labor government too. May squeeze home Coalition.
Greens should be worried. Labor needs to do not one single deal with them to get over the line on these results. Green preference deals are simply irrelevant. By contrast, FFP preferences will bleed more from the coalition.
Geoff,
I am not sure of the assumptions you are making in your post 234.
As you point out there have been 45 polls in six months, with a mean sample size of around 1400. If we assume that voting intention at the time each poll was taken is a good predictor of voter behaviour at the election, then we have a sample of around 65,000, with a weighted average TPP of almost exactly 56% ALP and 44% Coalition. As you have pointed out, almost none of the individual polls have fallen outside the individual 95% confidence interval (for each poll) from this mean, which leads to a reasonable assumption that they are measuring the same thing. A sample size of 65,000 produces a 0.5 confidence interval, at a 99% confidence level. If we are right in assuming that the polls are all measuring the same thing, then we can have 99% confidence that whatever it is, it lies between (for the ALP) 55.5% and 56.5%, not 50.5% and 58.5% at a 95% confidence level, as you stated.
cheers,
Alan H
Geoff, that’s your post 324 of course.
I would be interested in reading what all of you think of Rudd as a campaigner.
There was some discussion on Radio National Breakfast between Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan said that inevitably the polls will get closer during the election campaign because Howard is an experienced campaigner and Rudd is the first time.
In my opinion that may be true. However Rudd is not completely a novice as he has campaigned as shadow foreign minister.
One thing you can’t deny about Beazley was that he was great during election campaigns. I think he always improved Labor’s position at election time.
As an aside I think that once Kath and Kim are getting annoyed at Howard because of WorkChoices then it’s all over!
Opinion polls aside the press in papers like The Herald Sun has not been good for John Howard at APEC, today’s headline talked about the millions being wasted hosting the event.
Not a good sign.
Primary numbers are from Shanahan’s report.
Since he won Griffith in 1998, Rudd has improved his margin of victory to 5% in 2001 and 9% in 2004. He is renowned as a good campaigner in his local seat. Based on that, I’ve no doubt he’ll campaign just as well in a general election. The Liberals are deluding themselves if they think Kev will fall apart like Latham.
How is Howard a good campaigner anyhow? What does he do that’s so brilliant?
Latham did more damage to himself than Howard and the Liberal Party.
Glen
A couple of things.
Firstly, i love your work. I don’t agree with you (ever, really) but i love that you contribute to this site. If everyone looked the same, we’d get tired of looking at each other. This is an apt description of the comments section of this site. Some people here tend to bait you. Do not take the bait. They denegrate their own views by trudging such paths.
Secondly, i feel its my duty to contend your argument that Howard is a fiscal conservative. His spending habits have been anything but conservative and he has presided over an increase of the public service expenditure to massive levels. That he does it in the name of ‘national security’ does not alter his radical nature.
GO@333 To mind my there have been one or two westpolls that might indicate that Hasluck and Stirling wont return to labor, and equally that Cowan was at some risk.
There has been nothing reliable that suggests this and most polling that I can remember, on a uniform swing basis would lead Labor to expect Hasluck and Stirling to return. You have the Latham factor (in retrospect only) two really ordinary members and massive swings indicated elsewhere in the Country; so I don’t get more upbeat than 2+ in WA, but on a really good day I think of Labor’s disaster in Canning last time, look at the kind of booths that massively increased Randal’s margin and pray to the gods that Mr Randal is unseated, as a special sign that not only the President of China but the gods themselves understand WA’s importance in the world and give us a little token of their enduring love.
I do wonder if APEC will give those in the Libs interested in knifing Howard the opportunity to muster some numbers whiole Howard is busy with Bush – especially after these numbers. Probably a bit too late for a challenge though, they may have to get the numbers and then tap him on the shoulder saying ‘you had you Bushfest now, how about an honourable retirement for health reasons’…
Interestingly Matt Price posted the Newspoll primary votes and the Greens are running at 3% according to it which makes me wonder about the poll.
@114
Lefty E Says:
September 3rd, 2007 at 11:21 pm
“I thought it made Rudd sound kinda tough for a change. Nice to know he can throw his voice.â€
Yes, the contrast with El Rodente on the TV news posing solo in his APEC high-chair, surrounded by what appeared to be a rejected set from Star Trek, could not have been more stark.
Nothing like a bit of a roadside mongrel from a working boy made good to emphasize the point. Dolly’s Antoinettish dummy spit on Lateline further highlighted the choice facing the electorate.
Glen, your reference to General Wenck was just a Reichian slip, right? Anyhow, re Newspoll, perhaps Mr. Howard is relying on a surge from CORE NASPROS aka National ASPiRatiOnalistS. That’ll incentivizate the electorate for sure.
Whaddya reckon, sunshine? `
Some updates from Portlandbet this morning. Some massive movements to the ALP:
Gilmore: $3.75 in from $6.50
Hughes: $2.65 in from $4.00
Macarthur: $4.40 (not sure of previous)
Forde: $4.75 in from $9.00
McPherson: $5.00 in from $8.00
Wide Bay: $7.00 in from $9.00
the newspoll Green vote has been low and trending down all year. It is consistent with previous Newspolls over tha pst few months.
Morgan and Galaxy (I think) have been recording Green votes at about 7-8%. Newspoll has always underestimated the Green vote.
the only recent state level polls we have are from Tasmania which showed a Green vote of about 11%, suggesting that at a national level on this issue morgan is closer to reality than newspoll
Mr Howard has been on the radio this morning saying that the election will be held “Well before Christmas”. That must mean December 8 at the latest.
That story re the “Well before Christmas” election date is at:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/04/2023208.htm
If the polls bear out at the election has there ever been an incumbent government trounced like this??
334Alan H Said:Geoff, I am not sure of the assumptions you are making in your post
Took the 45 polls, grouped them by fortnight, ran a regression on them with 2 to 5 replications at each date, tested for linearity of the trend, created a 95% tolerance limit envelope from the regression (same regression as a couple of weeks ago, but a few more points in it).
The “rogues” are the ones that fall outside the tolerance envelope.
The 95% range at the election is an extrapolation of the tolerance envelope to mid November. Risky, subject to those dozen caveats I mentioned, but a “maximum likelihood” estimate. The tolerance envelope blows out as you leave the sample period behind, of course. At its “waist”, the tolerance envelope lies about +/- 3.5% from the mean- this is bigger than the limits expected from binomial probability of individual polls, largely because of the “house effect” between pollsters.
If you just take the overall mean of those 45 polls, the mean and limits are as you say…. but you can’t lump 45 polls together as one, especially when there might be an underlying time-based change in the TPP.
We all know Howard’s definitions of phrases are loose to say the least.
Therefore “well before Christmas” could mean a week before Christmas. I could mean “well before Christmas 2008″. He could reclassify his “not in January” comment to be a non-core commitment.
Howard will call it when he thinks he can win it best. I’d say a lot of this would be based on internal polling too. If he gets some polling suggesting he’ll hang onto enough marginals he’ll call quick-smart.
Please help.
Somewhere on line, about a month ago, I saw a site that had a ’sticky’ type guide to the demographics of every federal electorate.
It contained information such as breakdowns on no.s of persons in various age categories, occupations, mortagages I think, income etc..
I thought it was SMH or even New Matilda but not so.
I haven’t been able to find it since.
Anybody got a link?
Geoff, Thanks for the reply. I can, and have, lumped all of the polls together as one, because I do not believe there is any ‘time based’ movement in TPP that is discernible, and I believe also that there is no discernible house effect. All of the accepted wisdom about bias by Galaxy, Morgan, ACN and Newspoll has been shown to be bumph by the last three months results, which have gone markedly against the so-called biases. All of the pollsters ask essentially the same question, and if there are sampling and demographic adjustment biases it is likely that they will be cancelled out to a large extent by aggregation. As my prof in the MBA program pointed out very strongly, the only thing directly correlated with time is age.
I cannot understand why people love regressions so much. On what basis do you believe that there is a trend to be found, and if there is one, why do you think it will continue? Why did you pick six months ago as your starting point? Why not when Rudd took over, or the last election? Surely the most clear thing about the polls over the past several months is their stability, not their movement.
cheers,
Alan H
I wonder when it will start to occur to Coalition MPs in marginal seats that Howard may not necessarily have their best interests as his number 1 priority and may instead be simply flooring it and hoping for the best, Mr Magoo-like?
http://www.jimhillmedia.com/mb/images/upload/1962-acc-b-web.jpg
Fred
try mumbles site
george megalongis has done a full demographic breakdown and a link was provided from there
ps expected 62/38 but such is life
Thanks gus.
Will check and get back.
Amused @ 332. You are right, Phil Barresi (Liberal, Deakin) has been very quiet whereas Mike Symon (union hack that he is) has, to his credit, been campaigning for some months (maybe he will get more ETU money now that Kevin Harkins has been dropped). However, I did see Phil B. in the ‘nodding dog’ role on TV with JWH last week. BTW, whoever invented the ‘nodding dog’ has a lot to answer for, as it just makes everybody bar the speaker – usually JWH or KR – look stupid to some degree. Maybe, the libs are holding off until the campaign proper. A few months ago, I would have thought that the libs 5.0% buffer would be enough, but I am not now convinced.
BTW, when do we get the next state by state breakdowns?
I’m reminded of the 1997 UK general election: prosperous economy, but the Conservatives thrown out of office due to a time for a change mood, a fresh new Labor leader and a dissatisfaction with Government scandals/sleaze. Tony Blair won a 179 seat majority that year.
Similarites with Australia in September 2007 are very striking.
Thanks gus, that was’nt it but Adam Carr’s site will suit my purpose.
Portland betting on N.S.W seats: very interesting!
Page looking like a potential pickup for Labor:
https://www.portlandbet.com/index.php?cPath=3852&event_id=ALL&market_type_id=-
#289 I always new Nostradamus was a load of rubbish. Hasn’t got any of his predictions right in his book.
blackburnpseph at 361
The 3rd quarter data for Newspoll ends with the next Newspoll.With any luck we might get it in the last couple of weeks of September or early October.
I can’t wait for the last two weeks of the campaign, the unions, the Conservation organisations and the Labor Party are all going to run the biggest scare campaigns ever seen in this country. Even the blue rinse set may consider changing parties. Go Kevin!!
More trouble for Howard and he can’t do a thing about it.
:):)
“The Daily Telegraph can reveal that the Chinese Embassy has lodged an official objection to an anti-Chinese human rights protest function to be hosted by a NSW MP inside Parliament House on Wednesday …… Premier Morris Iemma, who is hosting a dinner for President Hu that same evening only streets away at the Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, last night said he had no control over other MPs expressing their democratic rights. ……”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22357396-5001021,00.html
Heads up,guys. Gippsland is a seat to watch if there’s a swing on.
a) Before Latham, it was about 4% swing..Latham helped blow that to about 8%
b) Tensions between Trades Union and some ALP members in the Latrobe Valley caused a drift away from ALP. ( nearby State Seats lost as well). These tensions seem to have relaxed.
c) Timber industry workers important in Traralgon, as well as East Gippsland. Look for a “Bass/ Braddon” effect.
d) McGauran is minister responsible for quarantine ( Equine Flu).
e) An effective independant state member has “unrusted” a few “rural socialist” National voters.
The nervous-nelly Coalition MPs in marginal seats have only themselves to blame. Like Costello, they didn’t have the cajones (metaphorically speaking) to strike at Howard and bring about a leadership spill.
I like Mike Carlton’s take on this. Costello only had the courage to wound, not strike.
As Jasmine suggests, only one of the last five Westpolls have shown a movement to the coalition. Four out of five have shown a movement to ALP that would see the two marginals (at least) fall.
So local polling shows WA swinging less than the rest of the country, and even a smallish overall majority of 2PP votes for the coalition. But “quite keen for the coalition” is a bit excessive.
“Why would Downer make that up?” asks Glen.
Maybe because he hates Rudd with a passion.
Maybe because he thinks attacking Rudd on the basis of arrogance will slow down the avalanche.
Or, if I might channel Herr Doktor Freud, perhaps Downer is suffering from projection. He’s an arrogant gobshite, and thus perceives arrogant gobshitery in his opponents.
Bugger, sorry about that. Last part reposted. [crosses fingers]
Since some pseph pedant would no doubt soon point out that big Mal went to the voters in 1975 as PM, I will say that the biggest defeat for a party-with-a-majority-in-the-lower-house since the war was in 1975 when the estimated 2PP vote was 44.3/55.7.
The 72, 83 and 96 changes of government were all around the 53/47 mark, give or take (52.7, 53.2, 53.7 respectively for the winners).
The 49 change of government was considerably closer, estimated at 51/49.
The biggest (estimated) margin at all since the war was in 1966 when the Lib govt was returned with 56.9% of the 2PP vote.
As someone else correctly noted, if those WA ALP margies didn’t fall under Latho, they aint going anywhere under Kevin. Getten sie real.
This is, I believe, the latest manifestation of a stream of General Wenck delusions.
The ALP need a 2PP swing of more than 7.4% to beat the previous record (in 1975) which they would do with a national 2PP vote of 54.8.
The numbers make a lot of sense.
On the policy issues that count, it is hard to find a single one running for the govt this time – IR, the environment, foreign policy & military/security issues, health, education, tax & fiscal policy, interest rates & household living standards are all pitfalls for the Liberals. On the economy in general, it seems voters, while happy enough, are unwilling to award the government too much credit: afterall, John Howard doesn’t run the Chinese economy or the US Federal Reserve Board.
On the key issue of the leadership itself, the contrast between a youthful, smart, determined and resilient challenger and a croaky, cantakerous and vulnerable old schemer is really quite vivid. The choice has already been made – apparently – by the relatively younger cohorts in the electorate, who have mentally swapped Howard for Rudd en masse.
This is looking almost terminal for the PM, especially in view of his fragile grip on Bennelong. If voters form the view that the Liberals are likely to lose their leader as well as the election, the election will become a very one-sided contest. The issue will not merely be whether Rudd or Howard is better-equipped to lead, but whether the Liberals will have a viable leader at all. The matter of leadership is fast becoming a fait accompli: if not Rudd, then who? In the absence of Howard, the Liberals have no proven leaders on offer: only the enfeebled Costello is a contender.
Faced with such an elementary question, there will be a run away vote for Labor. Such a watershed is in the making. It is goes a long way towards explaining the leap in stated primary support for Labor. Voters, seeing the Liberals as the uncertain runners, are almost magentically attracted to the re-assurance as well as renewal offered by Labor.
In this respect, the dissipation of The Green’s primary support is especially interesting: are these the cohorts of once-disaffected Labor voters? The prodigal sons and daughters coming home for the celebration? If so, Labor will be in a truly formidable position: Add some Green primary support to that recruited from the Coalition and the prospect of an accelerating Labor victory will become self-reinforcing, irresistable and overwhelming.
What a splendid prospect.
One of our ‘men of steel’, Foreign Minister Downer (by name and by nature), was reduced to an incoherent, quivering, babbling wreck on Lateline last night, mind you if I was sitting that close to Leigh Sales I’m not sure I’d fare a whole lot better.
For all interested parties, there’s a summary of these prime numbers for the ALP.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=412
Peter – you took the words right out of my mouth. To top it all off, when asked about Rudd, Downer sounded like a taddle-tale school kid tugging at the teacher’s skirt. “Look Miss – see what that mean boy Kev is doing. He’s saying mean things about me to Business. He should be smacked!”
Downer’s posture was also awful. I don’t mean his ideology… I mean the guy was slouching. He probably really needed a nap. He’d had a hard day, poor chap.
Re: Posts about the West.
A couple of things worth remembering about WA.
Latest Westpoll (as volatile as always) had the ALP at 54% 2PP and
Newspoll quartley WA breakdown (published back July) had the ALP 50% 2PP. Not stellar figures but off a low base in 2004 of 44.6%.
Both these results put Hasluck and Stirling back in the ALP pile and dashes Liberal hopes in Cowan and Swan. It might be a bridge too far to ponder Kalgoorlie and Canning, but these have been held by the ALP in the past.
Anyone who tells you the West will hold for Howard is wrong.
I contacted Newspoll a couple of months ago and confirmed the exact wording of their federal voting intention question, and it is weighted against The Greens.
Newspoll’s emailed response was:
“Currently in our federal polling, the respondent is asked if they would
vote for the Labor Party, Nationals, Liberal Party or another party or
an Independent. Respondents who would vote for ‘another party or an
Independent’ are asked for the name of the party/Independent – if they
have not already volunteered the name upfront.”
So The Greens are not presented up front to the “voter” as a possible answer! This is clearly an advantage to the major parties, especially Labor who most Green sympathisers would support in the absence of The Greens being an option.
The way the poll question and results are presented by Newspoll and The Australian leads the public to incorrectly conclude that The Greens are offered to the voter as a possible choice.
They do not publish the full question, only an inaccurate summary – “which one of the following would you vote for?” – which leads people to look at the parties listed in the presentation of results.
The Greens appear in the results, despite not being mentioned in the question, because a significant number of people have nevertheless independently stated that The Greens would receive their first preference vote.
I suspect the Newspoll question is flawed in the same way at a state level. The 2007 NSW election result illustrates how Newspoll has been underestimating The Greens vote. On the morning of the election Newspoll had The Greens polling 6%, but The Greens actually received 9% of the vote in both the NSW lower house and upper house elections.
Its time Newspoll and its client The Australain improved its question.
What I want to know is what’s going on in the Liberal Party HQ right now?
Do they have a plan B, C, D or E?
Will anyone have the mettle to tell it like it is?
Glen @ #253
“How can he be responsible for something that the AWB did for God Sakesâ€
Because Mr Downer is the Minister responsible.
He has two choices;
1) He knew about it and is therefore dishonest,
or
2) He did not know about it (but should have) and as such is not
fit to run a chook raffle let alone a Government Department.
So what is it to be dishonest or stupid?
Another own goal from Downer
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/04/2023621.htm
First he funds Saddam.
Now he’s selling uranium to the Russians (who are openly supporting Iran’s nuclear program).
It is a critical matter of national security that this dangerous fool be immediately removed from the post of Foreign Minister.
While I am heartened by this poll, the margin of error means it is just as likely to be 55/45, consistent with the long-term trend.
What gives me pause for concern is the low Green vote. 3% does seem 2%-4% lower than most people would agree, although the “other” vote is still 10%.
I wish there was more polling of the Upper House (or a breakdown of the “other” vote), as I feel there is definitely a small swing back to the Democrats in the air (at least in Victoria I think they could be on 2-3%).
I await the results of the Albert Park by-election in Victoria, as I think it will be a good indication of Green (and Democrat) support for the forthcoming election.
With Rudd putting in performances like this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB7cg4INxos) I think the 3rd party vote might not collapse as much as I expected this election.
Martin B, Tim
Yes, fair comment about my assertion that the West was “fairly keen for the coalition”, I retract!
More precisely:
West Australia has been least enamoured with Kevin Rudd and the new Labor bench than any other state.
In all my assessments of the way these states may fall, I was, of course, fast forwarding to the election proper, where we will always tend to see a closing of TPP figures. On this basis, with WA so close (relatively) on TPP now, I would expect a tight finish but favouring incumbents.. all things being equal (which might, in itself be a big assumption!!).
We have not seen Kev campaign before and I would still worry about his team. Garrett is muzzled, Wayne Swan is as interesting as my grandfather when he speaks (my grandfather has been dead for years) and Julia Gillard puts Labor back about 2 weeks, every time Kevin lets her out for a run. Tony Jones ate her alive last week!!
Now the Libs are sounding more and more strident as well. Downer was squealing last night. All this “Well Kevin said this, he really did, he did!” doesn’t generally go down well. John Howard, in a very uncharacteristic way, told us last week what a strong leader he was and they are travelling badly. A negative campaign may backfire badly as well.
It will be unlikely, at this stage that the Coalition will hold this ship together, I would imagine. They have a very different (though inexperienced) opponent in Rudd. I would still think Rudd’s “team” might scare the rabbits away if he’s not careful.
Tim (382),
No hope of alternative option plans for the Libs. Their only two viable options (putting myself into their shoes) are Costello who has opted out already and Turnbull who is too self centered to go there, so has also opted out. If either had the chutzpah to do it, it would have happened already. They will have to wait until the dust settles from the polling booths and then pick their leader from amongst those pins left standing. I don’t think that this will be as bad as Canada in the early 1990’s (because while heaps of Libs will lose seats, there will still be more left standing than there were in Canada then). Amongst the inner cabinet, the most safe ministers from the top working down are the following – MacFarlane [18.9 margin], Nelson [18.5 margin] and Bishop [14.6 margin]. Vaile is at 13.0 but for purposes of this model, he doesn’t count. Next is Truss at 12.9 but he is also a National. Next on the Libs list in order is Ruddock at 12.2 and Downer at 11.8. Andrews, Abbot and Hockey are all in the 10% range. I reckon if the current trends hold, you won’t see much lower than that still standing. Even Costello may bomb out and if that happens, won’t he spend the rest of his life regretting the biggest mistake of his life [not challenging Howard] as it will have cost him his job to boot.
NT: Wild card, Interventions: mixed view but fed up with Labor government too. May squeeze home Coalition.
Generic Oracle
Dream on.
The Territory electorate is well aware of the problems in some Aboriginal communities, has been for many years, and it is already factored into voting patterns.
The Martin Labor government is certainly taking some flack at the moment, but not on any serious issues, and there is not a hope in Hades of them losing the next Territory election, though they will certainly have their margin reduced.
Territorians, like most of Australia, usually draw a clear distinction between local and federal politics.
The two Senate seats will be split, as usual, but Snowdon (Labor) will hold his Reps seat, and the other Reps seats (currently held for the Coalition by an ineffectual clown, Tollner, on a slim margin) looks increasingly like being lost to Labor’s novice, Hale.
I’m sorry Generic Oracle but I just can’t let some of your assumtions go unchallenged. To say Julia Gillard is unpopular is your own personal feeling at best. Every time I’ve seen her interviewed she has performed very well. Where is the proof of her being disliked by most or even large numbers? I haven’t seen it. I happen to believe the opposite is the case.
Garrett muzzled? Hardly, he is a team player as they all are. If he wasn’t he would be criticised for not being so. Again, where is the proof Garrett is a liability? Swan I’m prepared to concede.
This lack of experience argument is a bit much too. Hell, take it to its logical conclusion and an opposition would never be voted in. Total BS.
My understanding is that Garrett is spending a lot of time in seminars in marginal electorates and doing well. A swinging voter from Hasluck, who has indicated he is intending to vote against the Conservatives this time, attended out of interest and said that Garrett performed perfectly. Every issue tuned and resonating from why nuclear is a bad idea to why Kyoto was a good idea missed by Howard for a week or two or 11 years.
It is possible that he is running a very good marginal electorate campaign role and merely upsetting the people who want him all over the news.
Lets compare front benches.
Or we can play the fun game of linking front bench ministers to scandals.
AWB Downer
Haneef Andrews
Hicks Turnbull
Hornets Nelson
Water Mill Turnbull
Howard leadership tussle Costello
Share scandal Santoro/Pyne
Lack of Broadband – Coonan
Swan is a walking embodiment of what Rudd needs to achieve across key economic portfolios at this point of the cycle – a boring, safe look.
I think his contribution to the package is probably underrated. Old laborites (remember them, from Ipswich) don’t mind the guy at all. eg He’s not remotely associated with Keating’s social progressivism.
Do most people really care about Rudd’s shadow ministry team?
Only Swan, Smith, Gillard, Garrett and Roxon will be sighted during the campaign, if at all! Robert McCelland is a competent chap, but foreign affairs won’t get much of a look in.
On the other side, I sense there is general boredom with Costello, Abbott, Downer, Nelson and a few others.
There seems to the belief that all the government has to do is call the election and, zip, masses of people will switch to the coalition. Where does this assumption come from? Has it been historically so? Does every federal election see a swing to the conservatives as soon as the election is announced? Please tell me the issue or issues that will result in these masses of votes flooding back to the coalition in the campaign. IR? Iraq? Interest rates? APEC? Nuclear Power? The conservatives fear campaign will be matched, if not bettered by Labor.
I have to concur with Gary.
I didn’t see that Lateline interview and am happy to consider that she had a shocker. But when I have seen her either alone or debating Hockey she has been very good. I have seen her absolutely devour Hockey (IMO).
I suspect she is still quite popular and used appropriately will provide a considerable boost to the ALP’s campaign.
Of course we will be seeing mostly Rudd in the campaign. What do people expect? Was it really any different with Latham or Beazley, or before that Keating or Hawke?
The others will get just as much of a look in as required.
Hi Gary!
1. Julia Gillard cannot keep a secret. Tony Jones levelled the rumours at Julia that Kevin Rudd’s advisors had given the Shadow cabinet a bollocking for being invisible. Julia dropped that ball. Many on this site saw it and both sides would agree was not handled well. He ended up virtually squeezing out of her that not only did it happen but it was also unfair because they all work so very hard and are very visible. I also refer to the “AFL analogy” & threats after the unveiling of the ALPs alternative for IR. Just the kind of behaviour the public was already concerned about with a Union influence. This was followed by an apology.
Gary, if a politician ever, EVER, apologises, they have been bollocked by the leader. You should know that. She was then silent in all papers for three weeks after that.
2. Peter Garrett is a phantom. It’s a real shame, I’d like to hear more from him. If he is not up to being an ALP media tart yet, he should be hauled up for a boot camp with Mr Beattie, who has a PhD in courting the media.
3. You can call the “incumbency argument” BS all you like Gary but it is one of the best documented psephological effects we have. It is hard to beat and oppositions work damn hard to get elected.
How do you beat incumbency?
a) The government can run out of steam themselves/get too complacent
b) The incumbent party, over time, swings policies further and further to their ideological extreme until the public realises “the pot is hot” and jump out.
c) A newer, poorer leader in goverment, mid-term and an attractive/credible alternative
You can dismiss the “inexperienced” argument all you like but polls show it and so do elections. Federal government is big bikkies and people get nervous with new teams at the helm… particularly when things are not falling apart. Do the shadow cabinet have any with experience in government?
Which elections show a significant effect from the shadow cabinet over and above that of the leader?
Which federal elections in Australia have seen an opposition defeated where the government is unpopular and the opposition leader is broadly seen as competent but the shadow cabinet is seen as inexperienced?
Not quite related to this thread but thought I’d throw it in as it has something to say about our great economic managers.
Hope this works.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22356293-5003680,00.html
Howard himself stated, in 1996, that his own inexperienced opposition front bench was not an issue.
Q. Why is that Rudd’s inexperienced opposition front bench is an issue?
A. Because the government and its supporters are clutching at straws.
Generic Oracle (396),
” How do you beat incumbency?
a) The government can run out of steam themselves/get too complacent
b) The incumbent party, over time, swings policies further and further to their ideological extreme until the public realises “the pot is hot†and jump out.
c) A newer, poorer leader in goverment, mid-term and an attractive/credible alternative ”
Current government in power can claim excuse # B for their soon to be official downfall
:)
Generic Oracle:
(whilst my previous post is awaiting moderation regarding the Howard front bench)
As Obama said, you can contrast experience with judgment.
Would you prefer a government that is experienced by way of making countless mistakes, refusing to take blame, and then repeating the mistakes?
Suffice to say, under the Howard front bench is abysmal and you would have at least 3 ministers fired under any form of Ministerial accountability (another non-core promise).
The ALP front bench may be inexperienced but the Government front bench has Tony Abbot, Phillip Ruddock, Peter Costello and Alexander Downer.
I rest my case.
Alan, 356. I agree with your criticism of running regressions against time. Unless you have an underlying hypothesis that you are trying to test it is a pointless procedure. There is no ‘trend’ existing apart from what voters think at any one time. beware of what Galvano della Vlope called hypostatisation.
All these polls are very bad news for the Nationals, and I should have an article in tomorrow’s Age on this.
Martin
Sorry mate, this:
“Which federal elections in Australia have seen an opposition defeated where the government is unpopular and the opposition leader is broadly seen as competent but the shadow cabinet is seen as inexperienced?”
is a gift. 1993, John Hewson in the “unlosable” election. This was precisely that and shows both the power of incumbency and fear of the untested. Polls showed clearly that Australia was sick of Keating. As they show with many state Labor governments over the last three years. Lack of credible opposition and the power of incumbency do return governments.
In refererence to this:
“Which elections show a significant effect from the shadow cabinet over and above that of the leader?”
I submit to you Andrew Peacock 1984(?) against Bob Hawke. Andrew Peacock was a popular leader with the voters but the shadow cabinet was in disarray and not well-liked by the public. Andrew Peacock lost the election and the leadership.
Gary
Nowhere was I talking about the coalition and incumbency. Where did you get that?? I was talking about ANY government in power over the long term in our system: Menzies, Thatcher, Blair, Howard all benefitted from incumbency against inexperienced opposition.
Your point about individual issues is moot as well. Under the circumstances above, often a galvanising issue (like Keating’s “no GST” in 1993) can herd voters back into the flock at the midnight hour. Don’t kid yourself, Gary, it DOES happen.
Now before the brickbats come out about me “defending the coalition” and “bashing the poor ALP” can we, for once on this site, stop the party-polarisation?? I am not a coalition supporter any more than an ALP supporter and I DON’T think that the government WILL be saved at this stage, all this was in reference to why I thought that WA is not necessarily “in the can” as some ALP supporters were deliriously stating earlier. I stand by it. They have their poorest chance in that state presently.
No, that is an election affected by the opposition leader, not by the shadow cabinet.
I accept that the quality of the OL has an effect. However your claim goes beyond that.
1984 is closer, but like 1998 I think there is more of an effect in that people give one term governments another go.
Jasmine (341) you mention “one or two Westpolls”… as causing you some doubt about the ALP regaining Stirling. Believe NOTHING you read in the West Australian! Peter Tinley will regain Stirling for Labor, and the margin will ensure it stays a safe-ish Labor seat for elections to come. The word on Stirling streets is that Howard’s had it -and hardly anyone’s even heard of their local (Lib) member, Michael Keenan. It’s all about WorkChoices, interest rates and the punteres being heartily sick of broken promises and weasel words.
Asanque, Call etc
Froth. Really is. Your comments just show partisan bias with little substance.
It doesn’t matter what I prefer, this is irrelevant, I don’t shape the reality for Australia. It doesn’t matter whom I like or want or don’t want in power. Generic Oracle will vote once.
My comments were about what actually happens. Sure you love the ALP, but not all of Australia does and some Australians would rather the “devil they know”. This is not me “being biased”. I’m not partisan LIB nor ALP. This is just what sometimes happens. Deal with it.
If I was campaigning ON EITHER SIDE, I would not be counting any poultry before the nest was jiggling.
Generic Oracle… I agree with you that the ALP should be hoping to hold all their seats in WA, with anything else a surprising bonus.
However I don’t really understand how your ‘experienced team’ discussion has anything at all specifically to do with WA. Do you imagine WA is the only state in Australia that has somehow decided to look at Rudd’s team?
I think the experienced team argument is seriously flawed. You couldn’t point at one election where the shadow bench has factored in largely. The buck always stops with the leader. In fact, you’re lucky to see anything but the leaders during the election campaign. Do you remember seeing Abbot, Downer et al during the last campaign? Nope… not to a large degree.
The only time I’ve noticed the front bench coming into play was at a recent State election where the leader was so weak they dropped the idea of campaigning on the leader and instead ran on a “strong team” theme. Unsurprisingly it flopped.
The people who decide elections are mostly not all that interested in politics and couldn’t name many of the government minister’s, let alone the shadow ministers. In fact the ALP is doing well that most people even know who Kevin Rudd is.
I couldn’t name many of the Coalition Opposition Leaders and wouldn’t expect most regular people to either.
Generic Oracle for someone who protests at being labelled so much you’re mighty quick to label other people. I have never voted ALP in my life.
However, you’re deluding yourself if you think the Coalition front bench does them any favours. At very best you could describe the public’s reaction to them as neutral.
Like you, I’m just calling things as I see them… I’m not beholden to any particular party or ideology. Please learn to respect other people’s opinions.
So what does all this mean for timing?
Sportingbet seems pretty stable, with odds still pointing to an early November election.
Also – current odds have Labor picking up – Blair, Eden-Monaro, Moreton, Hasluck, Kingston, Bonner, Dobell, Wakefield, Makin, Stirling, Solomon, Braddon, Parramatta, Lindsay and Bass – but not really in the hunt anywhere else… if anything this displays the mammoth task ahead for K-Rudd et al.
That’s only fifteen seats… anyone like to suggest how the electoral math is going to fall for a K-Rudd win?
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=189195&l3id=630850
Exactly call the election, Generic, I am not an ALP supporter either, and have not voted for them in the last 2 elections. (I have never voted Howard either).
However, you cannot criticise the Shadow Front Bench without similarly criticising the Howard Front Bench.
Your statements are not backed up by anything other then your own perceived bias.
Call
Ok, good “call” about the ALP tag, I apologise for that and do try at all costs not to fall into that trap and I respect those who can argue objectively, you certainly did a good job of at least defending the ALP here!
Some of the issue have been “muddied” here but there’s no delusion about coalition favours on the front bench. If we take your assertion that the public is neutral on the coalition front bench, my argument is simply that this might be enough to counter an inexperienced shadow cabinet in a Federal election.
If I were Rudd, I’d be hiding that team for the moment. He is great in public and on the Hustings, I used to be in his electorate and he writes the book on winning hearts locally.
I also agree that maybe Peter Garrett has been doing a fine job securing his seat and maybe has lacked the publicity. I certainly hope, for his sake, he hasn’t been muzzled. He has a lot of good that the Australian people could well hear if given a chance.
Re (404),
“Now before the brickbats come out about me “defending the coalition†and “bashing the poor ALP†can we, for once on this site, stop the party-polarisation?? I am not a coalition supporter any more than an ALP supporter…….. ”
Ok, you are a swinging voter? No worries
. I am a Labor voter and while I am happy as a camper about the current state of things, I am generally a laid back person and won’t get into it with people. I can, though, appreciate the position of those voters who are Labor and want to wear their “heart” on their sleeve. Prior to 1994, my life was heading in a different direction and I really had no clue about things Australian. However, I lived through all 4 of Howards previous elections and had to deal with the emotions of defeat from afar. I couldn’t tell you which of them felt the worst to me. But to be out of the power loop for that long does create a lot of pent up frustration in the average voter of the losing party. I think being so far away from the local scene, not being able to watch TV news locally nor see the usual election night programs, etc. etc. makes the disappointment, if it comes to that, worse to bear. Perhaps T.W who is also a dual citizen with the USA as am I can comment here. Therefore, while I won’t go over the top and will more or less keep my feelings to myself, I don’t mind the polarizing comments of those even more leftwing than myself. I can empathize with them 
:)
Generic… I can certainly agree it wouldn’t make sense for the ALP to put their front bench in the spotlight. I can see several of them being unpopular Ministers in the future should they win Government.
Re: Peter Garret, I can imagine that almost all front benchers, Liberal, National or Labor disagree strongly on some items of party policy. However, one of fundamental principles of cabinet solidarity is that you support all decisions of cabinet regardless of your approval. I can imagine there are a number of issues where Howard Minister’s disagree, yet in order to ensure stable Government they publicly support all cabinet decisions.
I think Garret’s mismatched in the environment portfolio to be honest. I’d have preferred him in Education or Health.
Abbot’s in Denial again over Newspoll.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22359904-5005361,00.html
New ALP Ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dU02l8savA
Tim @ 382?
Maybe it’s starting. Abbott today did not deny the bad news of the polls. It is staring them in the face and their faces reveal what they know.
The question is: what will they do? What does any pack animal do in its death throes?
Generic, I don’t give a continental what side you support. I’m more concerned at addressing some of the points you categorically made without evidence.
“Your point about individual issues is moot as well. Under the circumstances above, often a galvanising issue (like Keating’s “no GST†in 1993) can herd voters back into the flock at the midnight hour. Don’t kid yourself, Gary, it DOES happen.” Well, it happened in 1993, any other election where this happened? Hewson had a very big suicide note afterall. Now tell me, what issue will have this effect in 2007? Name one.
FC 415
A good ad, meshes together a lot of themes into 60 seconds. Will makes people think at least Rudd understands.
Andrew A (322) – you say that Downer is in no danger in Mayo, but I wouldn’t be too certain about that.
Possum will tell you that the polls are showing the largest anti-Lib swings are in the safe Liberal seats. Downer has a margin of 12% or something, and this time he has a strong ALP candidate against him and one who is actually out there campaigning right now. I have received two things in the post from her; one flyer introducing her and another talking about IR. She is also part of the “doctors’ wives” demographic – she is an ex-nurse and her brother-in-law is a prominant local doctor. From what I have been told, she gets a good reception everywhere she goes and if she can translate that to votes on election day – particularly if she can push Downer to preferences – then it is entirely possible that she can win, especially given the usually large Green and Democrat vote in this seat (who strongly preference to Labor).
And trust me, Downer’s constant sour grapes and ill-advised rantings of late aren’t helping his cause one bit. Every time he’s been seen in public lately he has been looking decidedly rattled – and not surprisingly. He hasn’t looked this worried since John Schumann ran against him.
What do folks reckon about Howard having to call the election before 9th October ? That’ll be 3 years since the last election and it won’t help Howard to be seen to have still not named the day.
I fully expect a 6-week campaign to try and wear Rudd down. But how soon after APEC and the Parliament addresses will Howard wait before naming the day ?
My election day tip: Possibly last weekend in October but any viable Saturday in November. I’m not across all the sporting fixtures and state-based events.
Bahaha!
Yep, APEC going swimmingly for Team Rodent.
“But Malaysia’s Trade Minister says Australia lacks the credentials to deal with the issue because it still refuses to sign the Kyoto Protocol and has accused Australia of “hijacking” the debate.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/04/2023958.htm
oh lefty, its just the recalcitrants are playing up again
Generic Oracle,
Your assessment of the value/worth and performance is like beauty … it is in the eye of the beholder.
One only has to go back to ’96 and reread the assessment of the first Howard front bench to realise how inaccurate were the assessments by the Labor Party at that time.
One in particular that was ridiculed incessantly was Fisher (the then leader of the Nationals) and I would say that he has been one of the success story of that Government. This has been reflected in his life after politics as well.
I think that a lot of the assessments are made on spurious grounds.
Take your assessment of Gillard in her interview with Tony Jones of Laterline. I too saw that interview and got a completely different opinion of her performance. She was asked the same question about 5 times and for 4 of those she gave the same answer on the final occasion she changed the warding however the meaning was still the same. Now maybe she should have just re-repeated her answer but in no way did she overtly or covertly agree with Jones’s hypothesis.
When you look at her overall performance she performs just as well as Rudd, Howard or any of them. The message is usually clear and well articulated. The only difference between her and the majority of the political performers is that she is a woman and as such cannot be as “macho†as the guys – nor should she. She is a female and she must act as one.
My guess is that your criticism of her is based more on style than substance.
I have the same problem with Abbott. His style annoys the shit out of me and I cant wait for him to get off the TV screen. There is something about him that leads me to believe that he is lecturing me and that he believes that he has the right and the knowledge to do so. It is a bit like a cross between a priest or teacher and a parent – a full-blown know-it-all with a superiority complex. However, if you put the style to one side you find that you know exactly what he is on about regardless of your agreement or otherwise with his point of vies.
The similarity with the first Howard front bench and the current Rudd (hopefully) front bench is that we were and are not familiar with them, their styles and quirks. I believe that assuming Labor does win later this year that in 12 months time you will be surprised how quickly that have improved and how professional they then perform.
McCrann tips rates to stay the same – a sure sign that they are on the rise again.
http://media.news.com.au/multimedia/mediaplayer/smp/index.html?id=370
Tom.
Everybody is talking about an interest rate rise or it staying the same BUT what if there were an interest rate cut? Could that save Howard’s bacon and could he engineer a cut?
Lefty E: Good link.
The Howard Government’s inaction on Climate change and refusal to ratify Kyoto will stand as one of many indictments of their time in power.
We have a framework in Kyoto, it just beggars belief that Howard feels the need to try and set up his own scheme. Newsflash: JWH, 175 countries have signed Kyoto. 2 haven’t being Australia and the US.
Paul K, with inflation at 3% there is zero chance of a rate cut
Geoff Ash, Hi! Of course the Greens vote is very much underestimated as is the Nationals vote, for different reasons. Both will be higher than these figures.
If it really is a Labor landslide there is a good chance that the Greens will hold the balance in the Senate.
Then we might get some genuine green policies from the ALP.
With a bit of luck the Democrats will do well as well and hold two or three of their seats.
The greater the gap between Labor and the Coalition the greater chance that people will feel they have the “luxury” of voting minor party. If it’s very close then the minors will get squeezed. It’s frustrating that many people don’t understand that they can vote Green or Democrat in the House of Reps and give their preferences at full value to a major, if the Green or Democrat is not elected.
At this stage is doesn’t look like it’s going to be very close.
The trouble for the Coalition is that they are beginning to look like losers. They are going around with glum faces. They simply don’t look like winners. Kevin Rudd looks like a winner.
Bennelong Resident, there will be pressure for John Howard to announce the election date before then. He will look desperate if he delays too much and will be increasingly asked by the media when is he going to call it? He can’t keep obfuscating. He may well have a long election in the belief he will claw back voters when the “real” campaign is on. I can’t see he will though.
Grey is a seat that I have not seen mentioned on this site as a possible ALP win – especially with the polls as they are and that SA is seen as strong for the ALP.
Despite its boundaries having changed before 2004 to take in a lot of the old Wakefield there are a few factors helping the ALP here: retiring sitting MP who has built up a big personal vote since 1993, good ALP core in Whyalla, Port Pirie, Port Augusta etc – places that workchoices would be expected to resonate.
No background information on this seat, but the factors above could put it in play.
Agree with Richard, the coalition are looking spooked. I don’t recall a government looking this spooked since NSW Labor in 1988 or Vic Labor in 1992.
Channel 9 News: The lame duck president flies in to meet the dead duck prime minister. They also showed Howard walking past a sign saying demolition in progress.
” demolition in progress ”
How apt.
Just saw footage (ABC news promo) of John Howard scuttling around on his morning walk. He was dressed in bright canary yellow, all floppy. What a sad attempt to make him look young and vital. His advisors should be taken out and dealt with … to dress an old man as a scate boarder has to be treason, or something.
Rats
Style vs substance debate.. No, on the contrary, I find it hollow when citizens say of a leader “He’s too fat”, “Her hair is ugly”, “He is short with big eyebrows”. To be frank, I don’t care what our leaders look like, I am interested in both policy and politics.
Julia is poor, often, but not always, on both counts.
She stands by Medicare Gold but, honestly it was near-universally panned and ill-conceived. As far as the “macho” thing goes, actually, my reflection of her style is that it is too confrontational. More than once, she has made threats, to the business community at the IR unveiling and just last week to the senate with her “if we get elected, don’t you senators dare try to stop my IR laws, we have a mandate!!!”.
Tony Jones also interviewed her in June and probed about how much she had consulted with business to make changes to the IR laws and it was obvious, again from her style (real deer caught in headlights stuff!) that she hadn’t really.
Grandstanding about how much the policy would stand as is was just poor politics in an election year, with a party in opposition for 11 years. They need to get over that line. Now, the policy has been watered through several revisions and what can she say?
Now Lindsay Tanner is, by contrast, a very shrewd operator and handles his communication and politics well. I also agree with comments that Peter Garrett’s portfolio is, ironically, a poor fit. I would love to see him on indigenous affairs. He would have good freedom to move there and real sincerity with the issues.
I repeat my challenge to list an election when the ‘inexperienced shadow cabinet’ was a genuine election issue.
To say that the ‘93 election was decided by people not liking Jim Carlton, Peter Reith and Alexander Downer, when they really quite fancied Hewson, is absurd.
And to say that inexperience cost the ‘84 election – when the shadow cabinet was as full with experienced ex-ministers as possible – doesn’t make sense.
So when has this factor been clearly demonstrated?
re Grey:
Possum put it into his original Pollycide list as a possible win to the ALP.
It would require a big swing but the ALP candidate seems strong, with long term roots in the area and presents well where as the Libs have replaced a farmer with yet another farmer.
In additiion the Nationals have entered the fray which may split the Coalition vote somewhat with preference leakage.
The mooting of Pt. Augusta as a potential site for a nuclear power station [an American consultant was paid $4,000,000 to check the site out] may not be good news for the Coalition.
Grey going to the ALP may be a stretch but it could be worth keeping an eye on it.
blackburnpseph, I remember the lead up to 88 really well and had several meetings with Barry Unsworth before the election. They were truly spooked. They thought the gun ban would be a winner! It backfired badly and left them with soot all over their faces. They too were desperate but nothing could save them.
Should have seen them in the House afterwards on the opposition benches for the first time in twelve years. They just slumped there. They couldn’t rally themselves together for quite a while to be an effective opposition.
I imagine a similar thing is about to happen to John Howard and co but it is likely that he won’t actually be there.
I am incredulous that the Coalition is so one-eyed about the nuclear option. Interest in it pre-dates climate change concerns but it would be a very shrewd political move for the Labor party to follow Peter Beattie’s glowing support for the highly successful indications in early work for clean coal technologies.
Martin Oettinger from Zero-Gen has been working with the State Government on a process which deals with CO2 before the coal is even burnt and sequestering it below the surface. Such a process deals with Sulfur directly (Sulfate fertilisers and Sulfuric Acid can be made directly pre-combustion), Carbon entirely and allows the very real possibility of using Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology in the generation.
Some advantages:
1. One of only three viable options that provides BaseLoad Power and the most green.
2. Likely to be as cheap or cheaper than nuclear and FAR safer.
3. Technology very saleable to China/India and we have 400 years of reserves, not 46 years
Admittedly, I’d like to see Australia leading the world in solar/geo/Fuel cell technology but we are a LONG way from this just yet. Clean coal could be rolled out in under 10 years.
Really? That’s the most optimistic estimate I’ve ever heard from anyone and I work in the power industry.
‘likely that he won’t actually be there’ – that is a really interesting observation; not new or startling but interesting. None of his team could seriously be considering stabbing him in the back. Maybe he will enjoy APEC call an election and go through the motions. Why try rabbits from the hat it just draws more attention to him and his issues.
Who should be most scarred? People who expect to be there. Downer. Turnbull (maybe). Hockey (maybe). Has Bishops being quiet enough to actually be hoping it goes as badly as possible to give her maximum chance to pick up the pieces?
It is very interesting indeed. But they can’t change leader, the front bench is melting down slowly on TV, they must be um well unhappy campers today, but they must look confident and go through the motions.
I am just ranting I know, but I can’t help but feel it is past the time for the PM to even be looking for rabbits; or them. We are in chin up old boy time – aren’t we? But someone does need to tell them they have to stop looking like a Carlton forward on a bad kicking day.
I liked the ALP ad. Rudd comes up well on the telly, natural and approachable. I agree that the ad ties a few threads together.
A few interesting aspects….the ad shows Wayne Swan, so obviously Labor doesn’t think he’s a waste of space. And it mentions the cost of child care, which is certainly a big issue for the aspirationals.
And Rudd specifically promises to look after first home buyers. That makes me think he has a major promise lined up for release soon.
On a couple of other issues…I agree that it’s worth keeping an eye on Grey.
And in defence of Julia Gillard, I think she’s quite admired by a lot of single women, who may not take much notice of her policies, but like the idea of one of their peers being fiesty and in power. I think we’ll see more of her in the campaign.
As for the rest of the Labor frontbench…Garrett is popular and should do more, Tanner is capable and should do more, and where on earth is Stephen Smith? He has a crucial portfolio, but I haven’t sighted him. Unless he’s over in Perth running local campaigns, I think he’s letting the side down. Kerry O’Brien is a hack, and Labor could be making more impact on the equine flu issue (even though I don’t think it’s a serious vote-changer).
One opposition fronbencher I don’t hear mentioned much is Tony Burke. I’ve seen him speak on television quite a few times and he always comes across as very bright and articulate. Does anyone else agree? He was only elected in 2004 after being in the NSW LC and was very swiftly promoted to the fron bench.
Martin B
I won’t take your challenge because you’re right. The only way the Liberal Party can win with inexperience is to tag Rudd, and I think they’re failing at this task at the moment.
Attacking a bunch of people no-ones heard of before won’t work. I know lots of (all?) politicians, Ministers and their shadows all like to think they are well known. They are wrong. It’s about leadership. You become famous when you stuff up – think Downer in stockings, think Rudd in Scores, think Abbott and his son (?), etc
A staffer who works for a Liberal member in WA tells me constantly that the punters aren’t engaged. People run around after their kids, family, dog, listen to FM radio, watch “Who want to Dance with a Millionaire Batchelor Survivor Special”.
Present company excluded of course……
Hence Rudd appearing on FM Morning Crew type shows where the listeners are. Sure they are puff pieces but AM Talk radio is the providence of the over 40 rusted on liberals, where as the young aspirationals listen to 2Day FM etc.
Also, that was why Rudd successfully used his appearance on Sunrise to raise his profile with the Mel & Kochie crowd, where as Howard prefers to appear on the staid and low-rating Today Show. Pity Shrek didn’t learn from his appearances on Sunrise.
Experience in the Howard govt.
How about McGauran and Truss, the ministers responsible for quarantine, warned about changes that would see the horse flu come into Australia.
These jokers have brought a $12 billion a year industry to its knees. For the first time in 120 years the Birdsville races did not run and the Melbourne Cup in November is looking more and more like a 2nd rate cup.
And the experienced response of Howard, a paltry $50 to those affected and the inquiry
“It’s clear that the Howard Government is manoeuvring to protect senior ministers from the reach of the Callinan horse flu inquiry, because last night Mr McGauran announced that Justice Callinan will only inquire into the cause of the outbreak and make recommendations to prevent and eradicate the disease in Australia.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/04/2023203.htm?section=justin
Who ever heard of an inquiry into an action that brought a $12 billion industry to its knees that does not look at why it happened.
Experience of the Howard ministers?
The only experience they have is avoiding blame.
Channel 2 news: The voters have cut and run from Howard.
The whole ‘who can trust the opposition in government – they are so inexperienced’ argument is just a crock. And both sides of politics are guilty of using it at some time or another. If you follow the logic aof the stupid argument through you would never have a change of government, and even the most one-eyed bloggers on this site would agree that changes of government are actually good for democracy.
Indeed.
For example the Libs in 72, the ALP in 96 and the Libs again in 2007.
I wonder if there’s a pattern?
Um, Q above is me. It’s not some obscure Trekkian reference, just little fingers trying to get in on the keyboard action…
But since Q won’t get his say for awhile I’ll repeat myself.
Indeed.
For example the Libs in 72, the ALP in 96 and the Libs again in 2007.
I wonder if there’s a pattern?
blackburnpseph
I’ll tell you one this the experience argument is not a crock…it cost both Hewson and Latham a shot at being Prime Minister…
Look had Rudd been Opposition leader since the 2004 election loss he’d have had just enough leadership experience…but he’s been a ‘leader’ for less than 1 year and yet people think he’ll do a good job as Prime Minister are you kidding??? Had Beazley still been the leader the experience argument couldnt be used but Rudd is inexperienced and it can and should be used against him…not to mention more than half of his invisible front bench!
When i use the experience argument i dont mean there shouldnt be any changes of Government but for Gods Sake put someone in whose been leader for more than a year and in Parliament for more than 10 years at least…Rudd fails both categories and so the experience argument will hurt him if the Libs can hit him in the campaign…
I just received an email from Portlandbet with updated odds. Here are the meaty bits (their words, not mine):
The flow of money this week has been for Labor and not only in seats considered marginal. The Labor go has included many so-called safe Coalition seats and it has been across the country. No seat seems safe for the Coalition.
Seats where Labor has been backed as a hefty outsider include:
Gilmore $12 to $3.75
Hughes $12 to $2.65
Dawson $11 to $4.75
Fairfax $10 to $7
Leichhardt $8 to $2.80
McPherson $12 to $5
Wide Bay $11 to $7
Boothby $5.50 to $3.30
Aston $12 to $11
Canning $3.65 to $3.25
The most interesting go has been in the seat of Hughes, where Labor has been backed from $12 to $2.65. The seat of Hughes is currently held by Danna Vale, who has held the seat since 1996 when the Howard-led Coalition swept to power after thirteen years in opposition. The money certainly suggests Ms. Vale may be considering retirement. Such a move could be seen as someone deserting a sinking ship. Perhaps Ms. Vale sees the writing on the wall with all signs pointing to an ALP election victory.
Experience!
The experience of Howard, brought in Work Choices without warning without consultation, railed against the unions for 18 months when they said it was unfair and people were being ripped off.
Finally bowed to pressure due to poor polls and introduced a “Fairless Test” as aknowledgment that people were being ripped off and being treated unfairly. Yet the “Fairless Test” has so many holes in it it may as well not been brought in and it also excluded the 350,000 previously signed up under Work Choices from the “Fairless Test”.
A major policy change, hurriedly introduced, no consultations, it’s failings and unfairness ignored until pressure from the polls brought cosmetic changes.
This sort of experience we do not need.
“When people talk about experience, what they really want to know is, ‘Does he have good judgment?’” Obama said.
One hopes that more experience means better judgment, he said, but “everybody knows a lot of 50-, 60- and 70-year-olds that don’t have good judgment, because they keep on making the same mistakes over and over again.”
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?articleId=2002cf48-eadc-4ec5-a96a-c07284392477&headline=Obama+says+judgment%2C+not+just+experience%2C+is+key
“I love when people criticize me about my foreign policy experience when they got either snowed into or intimidated into supporting the biggest foreign policy disaster in a generation, and I’m thinking well what good was your experience if you showed such poor judgment?” Obama said at a house party in Bedford.
Experience!
The experience of Howard and house prices and his investor friendly policies that saw prices skyrocket.
“JOHN HOWARD: And I haven’t found anybody in seven-and-a-half years shake their fist at me and say, Howard, I’m angry with you for letting the value of my house increase.”
“JOHN HOWARD: You haven’t actually complained. What you’re really saying is the value of our house hasn’t gone up enough (laughs).
PHYLLIS: No, no, no, no. I disagree.
JOHN HOWARD: I’m sorry.
PHYLLIS: I think that it’s ridiculous with the inflation of the housing prices…
JOHN HOWARD: So, you’d like to…
PHYLLIS: …because what about our grandchildren?
JOHN HOWARD: Well, look, look, that is a valid point.”
Yeah a really valid point, what about our grandchildren and our children, how are they going to be able to afford to buy a house.
Just think without the EXPERIENCE of Howard we would still have affordable housing today.
#411 Paul, you mention the 15 seats which Labor are currently predicted to gain according to sportingbet. I`m not sure why you say they are not in the hunt anywhere else though. Here are 10 seats in NSW and Qld alone in which portlandbet has the ALP at $2.50 or better – Bowman, Flynn, Herbert, Hinkler, Bennelong, Greenway, Page, Paterson, Robertson, Wentworth.
julia killed shreck on the 7.30 report. arrogant out of touch the libs what a shame
I don’t know if it has been mentioned, but Martin O’Shannessy, CEO of Newspoll, was interviewed on NewsRadio today. He is now predicting Labor to win the election. He says that is now the “most likely” outcome.
Woah! Gillard just tore Schrek a new green *sshole on 7.5
This is the killer problem for Howard on house prices. Not so much whether they are going up or even whether people can afford them, but that he is out of touch (and appears it) to what rising house prices can mean. For someone who won power on this ‘Battler’ image, he is handling this very badly. His advice must be terrible these days.
Julia Gillard just shredded Joe Hockey on 7.30 report, who was Joe looking at off camera to give him the answers?
I admit he only said union bosses once.
Won’t be any worse than Howard, most likely will be a lot better.
What a ramshackle IR policy the ALP has i dont think one Australia actually understands their policy that still keeps so much of workchoices in place…
Gillard has shown why she needs to be hidden by the ALP during the election campaign…she’s not articulate, she’s monotone and whiny and can’t keep her sentences together…and for crying out loud could she have have a worse hair cut i mean seriously at least Julie Bishop tries to look half decent and feminine…i know Hockey’s a fat man and is setting a bad example because of that but Gillard could scrub up better for a 7:30report debate…
Both sides have got IR wrong as far as im concerned….
The ALP policy brings back the good old days for the Union bosses…and will increase unemployment in this country
The Coalition’s policy didnt have enough safeguards in place for the original laws…
It’s interesting to watch the Libs cast around for a reason that their polling is so dire. But it’s simple – it’s WorkChoices. People hate it and are fearful of what it means in the future. What’s more, WCs is proving to be a lightning rod for all of people’s anxieties about work. There don’t appear any upsides to it (unlike, say, the GST, which came with big fat tax cuts) for normal people. Throw in a credible and likeable Labor leader, and it’s easy to see why the government is doomed.
Gillard – 1 Hockey – 0
Piping
Howard actually laughed during the interview when he thought the woman was complaing about house prices, he thought she was saying they hadn’t gone up enough when she was complaining her grandkids would not be able to buy a house.
I will post a link to the interview later and you can hear him laugh,
High house prices hahahahahhaha
people can’t buy houses hahahahahahaha
Jackie Kelly has eight hahahahahahahaha
I support Peter Debnam sacking 20,000 public servants so that investors can get relief from stamp duty to buy another 8 houses hahahahahaha.
The EXPERIENCE Howard and his mob of cronies has is at looking after themselves and their mates and stuff the rest.
Why hasn’t anyone on this pseph-site questioned the sample size of this newspoll?
Am I missing something here?
When Morgan came out last week reporting 54.5% for Labor, there was a heap of posts about the suspect sample size of 1271.
Now this Newspoll says the sample size was just 1147, approximately 10% less??? (Including a green primary vote that is less than half of its 2PP at 2004 election, which is about a credible as a “dodgy brothers” advertisment)
Where have all the critics gone?
Don’t get me wrong, this poll is bad for the libs, but even so, some cold analysis and unbiased critisim wouldn’t go astray
Don’t forget rising rents, as well as rising house prices. Not only are rents practically unaffordable in the same areas as houses are unaffordable, but the process of applying for a tenancy in a landlord’s market is humiliating. I have seen queues several blocks long to inspect a vacant flat. And a real estate agent told me that there are often several DOZEN suitable tenants for every vacancy, and the agents spend half their time consoling perfectly good potential tenants that there was really nothing wrong with their applications, it’s just that the landlord chose someone else. God knows how students manage to rent in the city.
And if people struggle to pay the rent, they won’t save anything towards a house. So the issues are interconnected.
I don’t think there’s much Rudd can do about rents, house prices, petrol prices or rising food prices in the short term. But he has acknowledged the problem. That may well be enough to swing the voters. How a Labor Government would deal with these problems is a matter for the NEXT election campaign, I think.
Fagin at 454,
There’s a few other seats that have had big movements towards Labor in the last couple of days:
Cook from about $11 to $4.75
Macarthur from $9 to $4.40
North Sydney from $11 to $9
Casey from $10+ to $4.75
Dunkley from $9 to $3.50
Forde from $9 to $4.75
There’s quite a few others (like Sturt and Paterson) that have also shifted significantly over the last couple of days, but I can’t remember what the odds were before.
All up, every betting market seems to have been flooded with bets on Labor since the Newspoll came up yesterday – and I’m expecting more movements tomorrow as the news continues to sink in.
Julia lacking? That performance tonight was first rate. Therein lies the problem with your argument Glen – the team is only as good as the leadership. Gillard and Rudd have performed very well and promoted themselves as a strong viable alternative. With that in mind, the public needs a negative to move away from Howard and they have one in the mother of them all – Workchoices.
First rule of product marketing – never give the customer a need or desire to look at alternatives.
Yeah, this government will leave a shocking legacy on house prices. That stupid 7k subsidy just had the net effect of boosting prices by, wow, 7k, plus several more in creating a demand bubble around the initial closing date.
Coupled with the ridiculous decision to halve capital gains, they have created an entirely unproductive speculation boom by investor-buyers, which has cut out first home buyers. Why their earnings get taxed less than my wage is beyond me.
At the same time, our banks have been borrowing from the US at 2.5% – *massively* inflating the trade deficit; then passing it on at cartel rates of 7+%.
Where’s the FTA when you need it? Not for us, apparently.
Sound economic managers my ars*!
I noticed Hockey looking to the side. It was strange. Someone giving him his answers? Can’t he think for himself?
Joe was sturggling, Julia fairly much on song and, clear.
Yes, she needs a new hairdo.
Chris
I noticed that, the eye movement. Yes, strange. Julia looked less strident. Joe had nowhere to go except the old line about union – yawn – bosses.
Julia wiped the floor with Shrek. Take away all the arrogance and bluster, and this government is fast becoming a rabble.
Squiggle – this was a fairly normal sample size for Newspoll. Last week’s Morgan was small for a Morgan.
Hughes is my prediction for a surprise Labor gain on election night.
Interestingly, the Liberals are said to be still worried about Cook.
Would Leichhardt still be considered a surprise Labor gain? Coz that’s my pick for the surprise Labor gain (10.3% margin v 8.8% for Hughes)
Chris others
avuncular joe was looking around for donkey to blame
arbie
chill pill time- most people dont care about house prices and rents J-HO has given us the “greed is good” experience to replace the old ‘fair go for all” and unfortunately the plight of the less well off aint on the libs radar
the real cage rattler is WORSTCHOICES -i think the polls prove that
Hi Brian
Good to know, thnak you, but it doesn’t help me.
Why would Newspoll be more accurate with a smaller sample size?
Are Morgan’s questions more loaded towards a particular answer?
I hate to say it, but to my inexeperienced eyes, this Newspoll is close to being an outlier…
Roll on AC – or should I check for the sample size there as well
The show was almost tranquil compared to their other discussions, especially Julia, more relaxed and targeted her comments perfectly.
If Costello wants to get his name in the ledger as a PM he has only 3 months left to achieve it.
On the issue of the Green vote in Newspoll – the fgren figure for this Newspoll was not much different from previous Newspolls. but is is reasonably consistent and is no reason to suspect the overall outcome.
Newspoll seems to systemically undersetimate the Green vote.
Morgan recently had the Greens around 7-8%
I thought Pauline was trying to resurrect the UAP
Just saw 7.30 Report (I’m in SA) and I must say that Julia pretty much wiped the floor of Hockey. He looked ill-prepared and panicky, frankly, which isn’t a good look for the incumbent minister.
By contrast, she was calm, clear and articulate.
As someone said earlier – Gillard 1, Hockey 0.
She’s cant resurrect the old UAP David…the AEC were idiots for allowing her to besmirch the good names of Lyons and Menzies by ruining the name of the precursor to the Liberal Party…
It was a better name than the Liberal Party ill admit to that….
Why hasn’t anyone on this pseph-site questioned the sample size of this newspoll? Am I missing something here?
This is a standard Newspoll number. They aim to interview about 1200+ people, but some have to be thrown away for various reasons. The “throwing away” is supposed to be, and probably is, unbiased. The average number in recent Newspolls has been 1155- and never lower than 1140, never higher than 1168.
Yeah, but she doesn’t have to promote a dog of a policy. That’s a big advantage over Hockey.
When the liberal party was formed there was too much government in many countries. So I think the name “liberal” was used in the negative sense, i.e., the right of people to be left alone by excessive government meddling. This is opposed to the U.S. meaning of the term, which generally means more government provision to stamp out inequality.
OMG … how many of you normally read Crikey website? I am not a subscriber BUT I read their free stuff. This one showed up today and describes how many will lose their seats based up on last nights newspoll.
Titled “Joe Hockey, Tony Abbot: welcome to Death Row”
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070904-Welcome-to-death-row-Joe-Tony-.html
Mr Squiggle, Newspoll underestimate Green votes because they don’t include them in the nominated choices in the main ‘how will you vote’ question, only in the follow-up if the respondent says none of Labor, Lib or Nats. Morgan gives a ballot paper in F to F which includes Greens, Dems and FF, and includes them in the question in telephone polls.
There is no reason why Newspoll is regarded as being ‘better’ than Morgan except prejudice. Gary Morgan has made a goose of himself at election time by ignoring the margin of error of his polling, and placing too much credence in preference allocations of his ‘other party’ respondents, but the actual accuracy of his polls has been just as good as any of the others.
cheers
Alan H
Glen at 487: there’s nothing the AEC could do about it, I’m afraid. The UAP predates the Commission by a couple of decades, and the name is out of copyright.
But at least you get to call her “Pig Iron Pauline”.
A punt at some surprise Labor gains in the regions….Kalgoorlie, Sturt, Cowper and Flynn. Maybe Gippsland too.
I think that, in the mining seats, for every miner raking it the bucks on an AWA, there’s a dozen teachers, police officers, KFC workers, supermarket checkout chicks, bar attendants and nurses trying to live on a standard wage in a town where you can’t even find or afford a tent space at the caravan park.
They buggered up Sturt, that’s Christopher Pyne’s seat.
Today I received a letter from him asking me to fill in a petition blaming the state government for water shortages. Which is interesting, because I think it is actually caused by a lack of rain.
He proposes that S.A. should have a desalinisation plant, but has previously attacked the state government for borrowing money to build a new hospital.
#409 – the obscurity of the state Opposition leaders is perfectly illustrated by a quiz night I organised for an ALP branch a few months back, in which one of the questions was to name any five of the seven state/territory Opposition leaders outside Victoria. The highest score any table got was two.
#439 – can see where you’re coming from on Grey, but the big industrial towns are a much smaller share of the population than they were when Labor last held the seat – Whyalla (whose population has declined by something like 30% in the last 30 years) especially so. Such growth as there is in the seat is happening in places like Port Lincoln. Not impossible – with the polls the way they are at present nothing is really impossible – but if one were compiling a list of seats on double-digit margins which are a chance to fall I wouldn’t have Grey near the top of it.
Ok, so a bit more on the experience.
For baseline: prior to Rudd there have been 16 OLs since WWII.
5 of these have won elections, while 2 have never contested an election.
There have been 5 OLs without ministerial experience prior to becoming OL.
So the first main points are that ‘inexperienced’ OLs rarely get elected because
a) only 1 in 3 of all OLs get elected
b) ‘inexperienced’ people rarlely get selected as OL anyway.
Of the 5 OLs without ministerial experience prior to becoming OL, 2 have won elections (1 of these at the second attempt) and 1 never contested an election.
public
So the second main points are that
a) it’s ambitious to see much of a pattern with small numbers like this; but
b) these raw numbers don’t scream that there is a major difference.
But if we go further into it, apparently (according to some) we need to credit Hawke with prior learning while he was a union boss, and to be as conservative as possible we only consider Whitlams first election, a loss.
This then leaves us with three election losses in the hands of inexperienced opposition losses: 1969, 1993 and 2004.
1969 I’m not convinced that inexperience was a crucial factor but perhaps others can speak more knowledgeably.
1993 I’ve mentioned above: while political inexperience may be a valid reason for explaining why Hewson acted as he did, to claim that it was perceptions of inxperience per se that led to the loss is IMO perverse.
2004 inexperience was certainly (one of a number of devices) used to attack Latham with some success, I would think that it was really only because he was open to attack for other reasons that this was successful.
So the final main point is that inexperience is a charge that can, and is deployed as a political weapon, and there is some evidence that in the right circumstances this attack can be made successfully, there is little by the way of evidence in the history that inexperience of itself is punished by the electorate.
Down and Out Of Sà i Gòn I still thinks its crap they let her have that name instead of the Ginger Sepratist Movement Party…
I mean it was the name of a former Party and its just sticking her name on the end of it i mean its like the Liberals for Forests…
You all realize that even if Rudd wins in a landslide and the Libs have less than 50 seats like Labor in 1996 in 2010 we’ll win back most if not all of those seats ala 1998….Kalgoorlie, Sturt, Cowper and Flynn. Maybe Gippsland too Antonio are not Labor seats i am sorry to say and they’ll come back to the flock if they decide to drop kick Howard and the Coalition at this election…
I’d still think you should be careful about calling the election lest you sound too cocky about being in the winning position…there is such a thing as winning gracefully and that is how either righties or lefties should act whoever wins the election.
5,000 reason for Howard to delay the election.
Every week that Howard delays the election past the due date of October 3rd means an extra $5,000 dollars for him in his wage as PM, plus the associated super, plus the free rent, food and wine at Kirribill, plus the free car, electoral perks, phone, travel etc etc etc . There is also all the ministers who benefit by about $4,000 a week for each week he delays the election plus the backbenchers expected to lose their seats plus their staff plus their advisors.
For Howard alone delaying the election until December means around $45,000 to him in extra salary plus benfits. Delay it until December and Howard gets to spend one last christmas in Kirribilli. I can’t see labor kicking Howard out of Kirribilli just before christmas if Howard loses, it would be an act of bastardry that only the liberals would be capable of.
I’m tipping late Oct early Nov election for several reason’s.
1-The longer it takes the greater the chance of a leadership spill
2-The poll trend, what I suspect has happened we had late last year the election of Rudd to ALP leadership giving the voters a leader whom was
Socially and fiscally conservative while being socially Liberal enough not to be a pinko hippie but be more socially liberal than Howard.
So we had a big swing toward the ALP with a consistently massive lead, and as predicted after the budget and as policy debate intendiflied mainly around I.R we saw movement back towards the Liberals for the ALP appeared to upset the business community with its response.
Now the ALP have released some solid policies on Health and I.R which as eased Business concern a little also have remained a positive opposition while the Govt have been rather negative, joined with an interest rate rise and talk of another along with leadership tensions between Howard and Costello.
The polls have started to drift back toward the ALP.
In another thread we discussed Public Servants, now I know many people both in the Public and Private sector on $40,000 – $60,000 not Union members, many wanting to buy a home but frozen out now what are these people hearing.
“Union’s this Unions that”
While the ALP have resisted their traditional class crap instead focused on solid policies, now these people mostly live in Liberal seats, don’t march down Bourke St which explains why many say Howard isn’t hated.
I suspect the ALP may go close to matching Holt’s 66 record, and while we say people vote differently at State level, in order for the result to match the polls the next federal electrical map will look somewhat similar to the State maps.
I reckon if the polls hold and they may well especially if rates rise again then we may see some results which will surprise if not shock.
I’m not convinced that Victoria is barely moving for how can Howard’s weakness state not move when his strongest are belting him.
Considering City link tolls are not the issue they were in 04, Rudd is more electable and the ALP have very good candidate in seats like Goldstein and Kooyong.
I also suspect the Herald Sun is running cold with Howard and this is the largest selling newspaper in the country with the likes of Bolt writing Howard off.
I reckon if Rudd continues to run a positive campaign minus speaking class crap and any major policy stuffs and they have released the two most important with no major holes (Health & IR) they also have released some welfare and Education policies as well and as long as the Govt continue to behave like losers then a 10 point plus TPP is quite possible.
I doubt it. Depends on if the new Opposition Leader unites the party.
I doubt Rudd will go to an election with a stupid policy such as a new broad base consumption tax.
If Pyne loses Sturt, he won’t get it back in a hurry. Handshin is a great candidate, a former young South Australian of the year.
Why is it that you repeat whatever Dolly Downer is saying on any particular day?
I remember the libs winning control of the senate and their “graceful” behaviour.
McGauran of “horse flu” fame showed the opposition members the finger as the Work Choices legislation was rammed through the senate.
Isn’t that the brother of horse flu guy? You know, the one that jumped the sinking National Party ship to become a Liberal.
Yep, that is indeed correct. Talk about backing the winning side
I’m not calling the election, Glen. I’m interpreting the polls. That’s what we do on this site, isn’t it?
On the issue of Opposition Leaders’ inexperience…I think Latham was a classic case in point. You could also make a case for Hewson.
But there have also been quite a few Opposition Leaders who DID have ministerial experience, who lost elections. Good examples are Kim Beazley, Andrew Peacock and John Howard (initially).
Steve Bracks and Neville Wran are good examples of successful Premiers who came to power in a short time, with no ministerial experience (though they certainly had talent).
It’s hard to generalise. And many on this blig have made the obvious point that no government would ever lose an election, if experience was the key criterion for election.
with some funny irony, I suspect the Nat’s wont do as badly as the Liberals, in both the last Victorian and NSW state polls the Nats did quite well.
i checked out the booths in grey,a lot of towns vote liberal 60%+
i think at best grey could become marginal liberal, as an electorate grey could do with some pork barreling, neither party has spent much money in it
howard is not popular with the local’s whether that converts to labor votes only polling day will tell
Simon it doesnt take a genius to see that most Labor supporters on this blog have begun to get extremely cocky about the supposed Rudd ‘victory’ this year…it may come as a surprise Simon but ive been saying this longer than Downer has…
The Liberals were not cocky about wiping the floor with Labor in 2004 whatsoever Arbie and i can attest to that…hubris is a deadly sin and one that many Labor supporters on this blog should be warned about…
The election is by no means over no matter what Mr Rudd may have you believe…there is something truly wrong with this country if when on a day when the June quarter national accounts were released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.9 per cent, seasonally adjusted…and yet the Government is still behind in the polls…i wouldnt be expecting a whole lot of economic reforms to come out of that ‘master mind’ Wayne Swan if Labor wins he’ll be the laughing stock of question time lol.
Blig not blog! And Julian not Peter McGauran in the Senate.
Glen,
Wayne Swan is already a laughing stock, the MP for Lilley will no Willy
“Global Warming” is not really an issue in the forthcoming election (whenever that is finally called),since both parties have “got the religion on climate change,” so to speak.
The world hasn’t been warming for the last 50 years or so, if anything it’s probably been cooling. But who cares! Warming makes a much better media and political story.
Carbon dioxide is not a poison, it’s actually essential for human life, and tree life if it comes to that, and an increase in carbon dioxide levels would actually be good for most of us on this planet.
I’m sorry to see that JWH has succumbed to the media and grant-driven hype ( by self-interested so-called scientists) about the issue of “how bad the western world is in creating all these catastrophic greenhouse gases” . Still I suppose that’s not really so remarkable, as all politicians are fundamentally poll driven, regardless of what they actually think!!!
Are you in the poll, Brother?
King O’Malley’s great election clarion call to the miners of Tasmania’s West Coast was “Are you on the roll, Brother?”
Well, on further number-crunching, it would appear that over 1 million Australians have been polled by the pollsters in the last 10 years. That’s about 1 in 12 voters.
Were you in the poll Brother?
Howard has been calling Rudd cocky, and accusing him of hubris since at least May. It’s a common tactic used by P.M.s when they know there government is sinking.
They certainly were cocky, so cocky that they shoved WorkChoices through the parliament without any consultation. That cockiness is going to kill off the government.
This is simply going to lead to more inflation, and another interest rate rise either in October or November. This statistic simply demonstrates the fact the government has wasted billions getting re-elected, instead of investing it wisely in areas that would increase the capacity of the economy. THis is the standard Tory approach, they don’t actually ever have a plan for the country, their only plan is getting re-elected. That sort of do nothing Fraser / Howard approach works for a few terms, but eventually people want better.
More Howard and McGauran consequences.
“FOR the first time its 150-year history, the Melbourne Show will be without horses because of the equine influenza (EI) outbreak.”
and
“Although EI is rife in Queensland and New South Wales, it has not yet spread to Victoria, where it could threaten the Spring Carnival featuring prestige races like the Cox Plate and Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.”
The Melbourne Cup has been run through two world wars, depressions and recessions if those scumsucking, sleazy, sly souless d*ckheads in the lib party cause the Melbourne Cup to be cancelled for the first time ever I will be seriously p*ssed off and will start actively campaigning against this mob of incompetant a*seholes.
Glen you don’t think I was being cocky with my 9.25am No321 comment do you.
Howard should cheer up, he will get to break some record at least. Not the longest serving PM, or the first PM to lose his seat, but the greatest ever defeat. LOL
Centre i didnt say all i said most so i didnt mean to target you per say Centre…but your 514 post id have to say that some hubris was on display there…
Funny how Rudd doesnt have any plans for the future…the Tory approach is that ‘its the economy stupid’ unless you have a strong economy you can’t spend any money on health, education or infrastructure…the Socialist approach is to make outlandish proposals and spend all the money the Tory’s have saved and bankrupt the country with poor economic management….Ha people want better…how can they get better with Labor…more unemployment…higher interest rates and higher inflation that’s all the Australian people will get more of with our nation being led by one party!
Centre,
Or even worse, the man whoconsigned the L-CP to the scrap heap!
arbie
sbs news showed a trainer in albury whose’ horseys had the flu
bye bye to the Melb Cup last of the aussie institutions to be buggered up by these oxygen thieves
seems all J-HO wants for his legacy is scorched hearts and minds
right bastard if you ask me
We Sandgropers have just had our turn to watch the Julia and Joe show on the 7:30 report. I can’t understand why Joe Hockey is not called on to say what is planned for Nick Minchin’s promised next wave of work place changes. I don’t see a lot of television, but I don’t recall anyone from the Government saying that more significant changes are not planned if they win another term.
Glen, any chance that your statements could be comprehensible (re-read the first line of #515) and not merely repeat the stuff you`ve been coming out with for months (higher inflation etc.) ? Might find you save a lot of space.
Gillard implied it. Look for some attack adds quoting Minchin during the campaign.
The Liberal candidate for Makin is a guy named Bob Day who is a founding member of the H.R. Nichols society. He things it is perfectly OK for juniors to be paid $4 an hour.
Boll i wouldnt expect a socialist to understand the approach of Tory’s…so it doesnt surprise me you dont understand that you need a strong economy first before you start thinking about spending that money…
The only socialists in the Australian parliament are the Greens.
But Simon i thought Rudd said he was a Christian Socialist???
Wasn`t talking about the Tories, Glen, nor the economy – just your often repetitive, sometimes incomprehensible posts.
When you leave that crap out, you`ve often got very pertinent comments to make.
When ever you see Hockey try and defend Workchoices it’s like watching him eat a shit sandwich.
Labor has never been a socialist party, it has always believed in capitalism, but with the hard edges knocked off. Initially this involved extensive market and industry regulation, but later it was realised that the a greater reliance on the market, and competition can be useful.
Painting the party of Hawke and Keating as socialist is comical, it’s a rhetorical tactic that bares little relation to reality.
Rudd was simply expressing the fact religion shouldn’t simply be used as a tool by reactionaries to descriminate against minorities. Rudd is sick of the idea that only conservatives have “family values”, and opposes the idea that progressives were all delivered by storks.
That makes perfect sense to me.
Malcolm Makerras has got it right. Workchoices was never raised in the 2004 election and then it was dropped on the public and it goes to one of our core values – job security (whether its reality or preception). Workchoices is not like privatising Telstra or similar. It is what brings in the $ to the household and combine that with rising interest rates and whamo! It is just so easy for the ALP to argue, you weren’t told about WC last time, what will they do this time with your job security? But Kevin hasn’t just relied upon this line, he is out there saying what he is going to do, accept responsibility (the buck stops with him unlike JWH). Thats why he has maintained his 10 point lead (now 18 and pinch me!) – he isn’t Latham and now the people are comfortable with him (and going to a strip joint helps even further!). Rudd is the family man with christian values whilst Gillard is the aspirational young woman – a good team and they are reasonating with all demographics.
Have said previously that election will see 53-47 2PP, will now say 54-46 and JWH will become the second PM to lose his seat.
Arbie
Anti-Howard rants don’t add substance to the experience debate you bought into. It really doesn’t matter whether you think “Howard’s Experience” is good, bad or ugly. This is irrelevant to the proposition, which was:
Incumbency brings with it political advantage particularly when an opposition is in opposition for a long time and has shadow ministers with no experience.
Arbie, you don’t decide elections. Nor do most people on this site. We are political tragics who know more than one minister in government. Joe Average, the swinging voter decides who gets power and can (and has) been convinced to stick with a government (even one it hates). Queensland did it for Beattie in 2006 and NSW did it for Iemma in 2007, Australia did it for Keating in 1993, Victoria did it for Kennett through most of the 1990s.
I have said all along this thread that I don’t actually think JWH will do it this election (at this very early stage) but I wouldn’t count on states like WA swinging Labor just yet, if only because of the incumbent effect.
Now many have railed about how evil Howard is here and how shocking his experience is but you’ve missed the point entirely. The ones that hated Beattie last year (for Hospitals, Energex, Rail, Road etc etc) that swore to take him down, “Baulked at the troph” and let him in.
Interviews afterwards in the Courier Mail to explain it simply said, “no credible opposition”, “untested”, “what if they stuff it up worse”. These all reveal an incumbent effect.
Glen, sometimes you are hilarious. If I thought for one nanosecond that, if the coalition wins on election night, you wouldn’t be rubbing it in the faces of many a poster here I’d take your comments on winning with dignity seriously.
David -510 – I try not to feed trolls. However, please post with references, including explaining in full why thousands of scientists and more than a hundred, if not hundreds, of organisations, are incorrect in believeing climate change is occuring. If you don’t have anything to add beyond what most here have probably already read at wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_debate
I’d suggest you’re wasting your and everyone else’s time.
Generic Oracke,
Victorians did not “stick with” Jeff Kennett for “most of the 1990s”. They “stuck with” him once, in 1996. They removed his government in 1999 and they have never looked back.
Housing Affordability is always, I find an interesting premise and Australia is perhaps the only developed country in the world that more or less sees this as a “right”. Europeans just don’t understand our entitlement mentality with land acquisition.
I am certainly perplexed when they blame governments for housing issues. Australians did it to Keating in the 1990s when house prices went DOWN and now to Howard when house prices go UP. I think the main issue is that Aussies always want to be able to move on housing NOW.. not have to wait. It is not a hard one, really..
1. If owning a home costs more than renting, then rent until it doesn’t.
2. If renting is more expensive than owning a home then try buying one.
3. If you are really smart, buy two cheaper houses, rent them out, then rent yourself a really cool house with the extra money/Tax savings and you also have two assets not one fat liability! ( A very NON Australian dream)
Ironically, there is a party that has suggested:
1. Tax breaks for first home buyers (like investors get) which would save a family $96 a week on average and cost 2.5 billion over 5 years.
2. Fairness for workers with Penalty rates back in, public holidays, redundancy and meal breaks but leaving the unfair dismissal laws as is to help out small businesses (and no changes to union rules under WC)
3. Killing predatory pricing and the squeeze of supermarket giants
4. Making banks accountable for outrageous fees.
Sounds like a party that might make it easier for all kinds of households to manage housing affordability a lot more sensibly!
Actually Chris Curtis the people of Victoria didnt remove him from power the independents did Kennett in when they said they wouldnt support his minority Government…
Now we have a reject as our Premier…wow we sure havent looked back eh…
Chris Curtis
Actually, overshot my experience there (you can tell I’m not Victorian!) Sorry, I thought he survived two terms!
Personally, Ill be winning with as little dignity as possible.
Viz, legless, possibly wearing a toilet seat, running naked through the streets yelling etc.
Waking up in park optional.
Generic Oracle – the thinking man’s Glen.
Did anyone else notice that the PM looked too relaxed today despite the poll results? Methinks that he will be stepping down for family/health reasons soon after APEC.
Glen,
Nice of you to finally admit that the Libs under Howard have swung to the hard right. If Menzies had wanted the Libs to be far right wingers he would have name the party after the Conservative Party in Britain instead of naming it after Britain’s Liberal Party. Menzies would be mortified to hear his party call Tories by anyone who supported the party.
Glen, if your man Howard was leading 59-41, I bet you’d be crowing loudly and attacking Rudd supporters. The most arrogant people tend to be members of the Howard government – it’s that “born to rule” mentality.
Not all Laborites are getting cocky! I’m heartened by the polls, but I’d never underestimate the capacity of the rodent to find one more political wedge or mount the greatest dirty tricks campaign ever.
Generic @528
“Interviews afterwards in the Courier Mail to explain it simply said, “no credible oppositionâ€, “untestedâ€, “what if they stuff it up worseâ€. These all reveal an incumbent effect.”
actually i think you meant incompetent ala debnam et al
incumbency is great when their is no credible opposition other than that it is fallacious in the current tumult
i actually think some marginals eg dobell will stay with the libs but some ‘blue ribbons” will fall so in part i agree with some of your analysis but the mood is there and actually the “aspirationals” are going to bite the libs on the bum
Fulvio
I did laugh! … though I’m not sure I want the “honour”, nor would Glen want the competition, LOL
We’re not back on the shadow cabinet with no experience again, are we? This is a very dead parrot.
* Shadow cabinets almost by definition lack experience. If we accept this logic no government would ever change.
* Being a minister isn’t all that hard – lots of people with no experience do it perfectly well. Being a union secretary is just as good training to be a minister as being a lawyer or a farmer is – in some ways better.
* There is no way of knowing in advance who will be a good minister and who won’t.
* The current shadow ministry is no better or worse than any other. I know most of them at least slightly, and some of them quite well. A few are brilliant, a few are dopes, most are average folks.
* In any case, the voters couldn’t care less – 80% vote for their party regardless, and the remaining 20% vote for or against the two party leaders. The floaters, who decide every election, couldn’t name either the ministry or the shadow ministry to save their lives.
This issue won’t fly no matter how many times you rattle its cage.
Gus
Well, yes, I think I agree with you. In the current Federal sense, we have a very real (and I think great) option for an alternative PM in Mr Rudd, so it is not the lack of credible opposition with Kevin’s case.
However, in Australia we do get Labor/Lib migration over time. In the 90s, we had fairly solid coalition support from voters for their state governments. For aspiring Labor politicians, the place to go was Canberra.
Now, we have the reverse. If you really want a tilt as a coalition, you go federal, so finding the quality candidates you need to challenge the Premiers is difficult. Again, add to this incumbent effects and you really have a hard job breaking in.
If Labor begins a new Federal reign with Rudd, then I’d expect it to become easier to topple the states with coalition governments.. Aussies (particularly Queenslanders!!) like this polarity in their governments.
I remember the libs winning control of the senate and their “graceful†behaviour.
McGauran of “horse flu†fame showed the opposition members the finger as the Work Choices legislation was rammed through the senate.
Arbie Jay 501
And I recall that arrogant bullyboy arsehole John Moore’s behaviour on the ‘96 election night in the ABC tally room. It accurately forewarned the nature of the new Howard government.
Personally, Ill be winning with as little dignity as possible.
Viz, legless, possibly wearing a toilet seat, running naked through the streets yelling etc.
Waking up in park optional.
Lefty E 534
LOL. You will not be alone.
Glen, you seem to have a problem with Brumby because he once lost an election to Kennett. (Now we have a reject as our Premier…wow we sure havent looked back eh…)
What do you think of Lazarus with a triple bypass?
Have you got any idea what you are arguing or do you just write the first illogical thought that comes into your mind?
Lefty E: I’ll have to stay very sober on the night of a Rudd victory, so I can actually believe it’s happening. OK, who am I trying to kid? I’ll be completely plastered HA HA
Pauline…
Brumby is no Howard…
Howard would have given Hawke a good shake in 87 had it not been for that idiot Joh! Also Howard had been a Minister and Opposition leader for longer than Brumby was before taking over…i rest my case.
Baz (529)
There are many skeptics about global warming. You might care to logon to some of the following sites and actually read them. That is if your mind is not already made up.
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=3
http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/Boon_To_Man.html
http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/WegmanReport.pdf.
I could give you a a lot more!
The Oregon Petition was signed by over 17000 scientists, doctors, professors, PhD’s etc, who disagreed with the proposition that man-made emissions of carbon dioxide were likely to cause catastrophic consequences in terms of temperature increase, melting glaciers, sea level rises, etc. i.e. the litany of the Al Gore clique.
Who knows? Al Gore and his followers (mostly other politicians, media people or pseudo scientific people looking for a research grant) might be right. On the other hand they could be perpetrating the greatest scientific fraud since the “discovery” of the Piltdown man!
David
He gave it as good a shake as he could, and promptly lost by 24 seats.
And don’t forget his time as a failed treasurer in the failed Fraser government.
Your case always rests very quickly as you never finish the arguments to their logical conclusions. You usually bail early and never concede when you lose. In any case your argument is purely based on bias and tribalism as a Howard Hugger and not on the logic of whether someone who has lost an election or the leadership can be an effective leader. Remember Kennett and how many leadership and elections he lost until he finally won. Your argument is so weak you can drive a truck through it.
No more global warning please, unless directly relevant to the election.
William, since you’re over there in Perth, can you find out who the No 3 Liberal Senate candidate is? Ring up NCB and ask would be the simplest thing to do – no doubt you know him
. Obviously they’re never going to put it at their crappy website. (Stray thought: do we really want to trust our internet future to a party whose own websites are so abysmal?)
David says to William Bowe (550)
Howard, Rudd, Turnbull, Garret, Bush, etc are all on the Global Warming bandwagon. Of course it’s an issue!
Re Eden Monaro. I spoke to an elderly couple today who I have been friends with for many years. They live in Eden Monaro, and I would have thought that if the conservative candidate only received 5% of the vote they would have still been among that 5%. Absolutely died in the wool!
Apparently they have met the ALP candidate (Col. Mike Kelly, Phd.) and have been converted. His military bearing, no nonsense speaking and generally strong conservative views have won them over.
Take Eden Monaro off the doubtfull list, it is as good as won. Kelly will be a minister in three years or so!
There goes the bellweather!
Mike Cusack…you and the rest of the left wing bloggers who continually say they’ve met or know people who were Liberal voters but now are voting for the ALP is a joke and since nobody can substantiate your ’stories’ you are only using them for political point scoring it is a pathetic attempt to show how Rudd is ‘popular’…
I could just as easily say i’ve met some Labor voters who say Rudd is so inexperienced that they are going to vote for Howard i mean Mike seriously i think you can add more to the political debate than ‘made up’ stories of people converting to the ALP…
Kelly should never be the member for Eden Monaro…for God’s Sake Mike he couldnt even pronounce the name of the electorate!!!!
Gary Nairn is a good local MP and to right him off would be fool hardy…
Glen,
Prey tell. How does one prove how he voted? How we know you actually voted for Howard?
You may get a rude surprise on election night.
The contention that the inexperience/ineptness of the backbench of a party would keep them from winning an election is fatuous. Nearly 60% of people have stated in this recent poll that they would vote for the ALP if an election was held last weekend. The great majority of the people polled would not have had any idea of who made up the potential ALP ministry, but still overwhelmingly gave them their tick.
Gough Whitlam won Govt with a shadow cabinet that was notably and predictably inept, and had been out of Govt for 23 years. That fact should kill this line of argument stone dead.
I heard Mike Kelly speak at a fundraiser recently and Mike Cusack is quite right, Kelly is a very smart guy and a very straight talker. His description of how badly Bush and Rumsfeld cocked up Iraq by ignoring what the professionals on the ground (such as him) told them, and how Howard and a succession of dud Liberal defence ministers just accepted whatever pap the US gave them would make your hair stand on end. With Kelly, Tinley and Cocks in the House Labor will expose the Liberals’ bogus national security credentials so thoroughly they will not recover for a decade.
If the experience factor is no biggy for Labor then Mike why dont you name 6 ALP front benchers who’ve been in the same portfolio for more than 5 years and been in Parliament for more than 10 years…without using Crean or McMullan???
There is nothing special about a freedom hating…terrorist sympathising…anti-american Labor Party candidate for an election Adam…Kelly and Tinley have simply exploited their positions in the military to embarrass the Government just as Wilkie did in the civil service…
Glen those last two posts are totally profoundly moronic even by your standards of stupidity. Well done.
David. The Oregon Petition has been comprehensively disembowelled. Nobody takes it seriously, or ever did. And you know it.
Glen 560. Kelly is ten times the man you will ever be. And he will win.
Oh Dear, there has been a security breach already at APEC with the theft of a Bulletproof vest and a Police Portable digitally encrypted radio.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22345595-5006009,00.html
See i knew you couldnt name the 6…just admit that the Labor Party have an inexperienced front bench its ok to tell the truth Adam…time to face facts…the ALP front bench are not ready to govern…but the people of Australia seem intent on giving them that power…the ‘it’s time factor’ is hurting Howard…
I think I have had enough of gutless Glen. Making accusations against people as ‘terrorist sympathisers’ on a blogspace is one thing, saying it face to face to a man is another. You wouldn’t dare Glen.
You hide behind anonmyity and spew out your hatred and bile day in day out and think yourself a man doing that- you are pathetic, as is Williams willingness to put up with your relentless crap on this blogspace.
It has lost its value for me and many others- I will take my politics and intelligence elsewhere- obviously trolling is acceptable practice here. Ciao.
Glen. I will not get into an argument with you, on this or any other point.
You are correct of course that I cannot prove that what I have posted is correct. I see no point in posting lies. False hope for partisan supporters is of no use to anyone, and may even be counterproductive. I seldom make comment on this or any other blog, and did not do so lightly on this occasion. I thought in doing so I was adding something to the thread.
I am not a “left winger”. I am purely an “anyone but Howard ” voter. I despise what he has done to what was an admirable party.
Whether Nairn wins or loses (and as I concluded my post, I believe he will lose), is of no great concern to me. He will not be much missed if he does lose. He is apparently neither particularly liked nor disliked, neither admired nor not. He is apparently just a bit of a non-event, precisely as he struck me on the one occasion I met him. A bit aloof, a bit forced friendly, a bit distracted seeming. Most people feel a bit sorry for him for the sad loss of his wife last year. A term after his eventual defeat he will be forgotten by all except the trivia kings such as Adam.
I object to your accusation of dishonesty. I have written what I have heard. If you don’t like what I have written, refute it. Don’t call me a liar.
My Grandad was a very experienced driver. We hauled him off the road when he started turning right with the left blinker on.
Incidentally, Glen: name 5 Howard Ministers in the same portfolio for 5 years, without naming Howard or Downer.
I dare you, Glen, to call Mike Kelly a “a freedom hating…terrorist sympathising…anti-american Labor Party candidate” to his face. He would tear you to bits, you disgusting gutless worm. He has killed real terrorists face to face – you’d piss your pants before you got out of the plane.
Actually Just Me i think i already am 10 times the man Colonel Mike Kelly is…i believe this to be true because unlike Colonel Kelly i think our soldiers overseas do more than just ‘flag waving’ i think i have a higher degree of moral decency than Colonel Kelly who deliberately denigrates the service of our brave men and women who fight for our country all for political gain by slandering their commitment to defending freedom and democracy…
Can it Glen, you’re making a fool of yourself. Ollie, I’m as devastated now as I was all the other times you said you were never coming back.
The “we’re hopelessly corrupt, incompetent and have no policies” is what is hurting Howard.
Experience. Well, that argument means that under the circumstances we should return to feudal absolutism. That would ensure no government would be inexperienced, they would have been born into their hegemony and trained for years to serve the interests of the people, right?
Glen, are you supposing we never vote for an opposition party on the basis of perceived inexperience? Or are you just advocating a return to autocracy: fascist, communist, feudal or otherwise?
Gosh.
Sadly Ollie, I had to delete your second farewell comment for the evening. It was ten times dumber and uglier than anything Glen has ever said.
I will take my interest elsewhere, maybe to Possums place. Cheers people, and lets hope for a Ruddslide so pathetic people like Glen stfu for awhile at least.
Left E…to answer your question yes i can name 6…
Costello
Minchin
Vaile
Macfarlane
Truss
Ellison
Anyone who supports Howard is morally bankrupt. Howard is a fear mongering xenophobic fundamentalist neoconservative who even Pauline Hanson has claimed stole her policies.
His scare tactics, wedge politics and blatant bribes may have led to attracting the gullible vote for the last few elections, but ultimately it looks like leading to the largest ever defeat by a government in such fine economic times.
See Glen, anyone can use hyperbole to denigrate.
Whats all this talk about Kelly? Wasn’t the Howard govt willing to sacrifice the lives of Australian soldiers and Iraqi civilians all for the sake of a little reflected glory off Bush? They were willing to let our soldiers die to make themselves look tough and, for two leaders to masturbate two egos.
Glen: “Gary Nairn is a good local MP and to right him off would be fool hardy…”
Write you are, Glen. You tell ‘em all about it, mate.
Ollie, I’m getting sick of deleting all your “last comments ever”.
Glen: When Howard took power in 1996 only two members of the incoming Coalition Government had any previous ministerial experience, Howard and John Moore.
So obviously you would have voted for Keating at the time.
Go fuck yourself William, loser. Delete that too.. are you Glen ?
Guys,
How can you take anything Glen says seriously when he spouts this sort of rubbish. Can’t you see Glen is only here to stir things up. Ignore him. His rants aren’t worth getting upset over.
TofK No i have never advocated one party staying in forever, it is a bad thing for democracy…had Kim Beazley still been the leader i could not attack him for lack of experience…i dare say Mr Beazley would have done a better job than Rudd if the ALP were to win this year…but you cannot run away from the fact Rudd has been a leader for less than 10 months and he’ll have a lot of responsibilities as Prime Minister…the question is…is he and his front bench up for it?
William i appologise for my comments on Colonel Kelly…they were completely biased and out of line despite my differences in policy with him and the ALP there are more civilised ways of making a point.
I wonder how long till AC comes out if it goes in Labor’s direction i am going to put 100 bucks on them to win…i might as well get something out of a Ruddslide if that happens…
Ollie #582: I think I might leave that one in. Possum will be so pleased that he has you to himself now.
Thanks Glen.
Thats one gutless, no iceberg non-starter; one “workchoices is just the beginning, sorry HR Nicholls” cat-debagger; two clowns up to their eyeballs in the AWB Saddam-funding scandal; one currently under the pump over Equine flu; and one loser no-one’s ever heard of.
Kind of sums up the problems in your argument. The ‘experience’ has left the voting public cold.
Attacks on Mike Kelly’s integrity are disingenuous, cast the first stone and all that.
What Mr Kelly is lamenting is the Bush White Houses inability to manage post war operations, which is THE major cause of losing the peace. What he is proposing is, not to “cut and run” (Latham’s Christmas present, Howard’s fear campaign gift), but to replace a failing and locally resented US occupation with a multilateral UN commitment, something which a Rudd Labor government would most likely support, considering its preference for multilateral diplomacy and a stronger role for the UN.
Generic Oracle,
I am afraid that the style you are relating to is not in fact the style to which I was referring.
One of the important job of a politician is to communicate and it is the style of the communication that I was referring to. I find it amazing that you would think that I was referring to the physical attributes of any politician i.e. if they are fat thin dark or blond etc.
If you had done any formal debating you would have come in contact with the 3 areas under which the adjudicator would judge you and your argument and one of those is manner or in other words style. That is how one interacts with the audience – see http://www.actdu.org.au/archives/actein_site/basicskills_.html#method – for more details .
Now I know that it is some 40 add years since I did debating at school but I don’t think that it has changed all that much.
I am unsure how M/s Gillard goes as far as political skills are concerned but surviving in the ALP and being from the left faction she cannot be bereft of such talent. Hopefully, her contribution in that area will be limited. I find that political skill is what Howard has and what Downer thinks he has but hasn’t and I am sure there are enough hard heads in the ALP with political skill to burn. I find those with political skill are not the sort of people I want to be associated with for they are usually more interested in themselves and the deception/manipulation of others and have little interest in anything else. This is not saying that a political party does not need them but Howard is a good example of what one gets when one who excels in political skill reaches the top.
Your criticism of M/s Gillard’s style as being too confrontational is one that a lot of women, that are making inroads in to the male clubs, are tagged with. She is playing with the big boys and if she is to survive she has to stand up for herself I must admit that I much prefer M/s Gillard’s style that that of the senior women on the other side of the house M/s Bishop.
Can I assume that you assessment of the woman with a tremendous success in politics is/was one of the most aggressive people I have ever encountered (Mrs Thatcher). I have only seen her on TV and she scared the pants of me. However, I assume that you discount her tenure as Brittain’s PM because of her aggressiveness.
I am unable to judge the interview held in June as I either never saw it or cant remember seeing it. I contend that you assessment of the Gillard/Jones interview that I have seen to be missed judged and poorly understood by you.
As an example of how well she performs I would recommend her debate with Mr Hockey tonight on the 7.30 Report where I believed she outperformed him at every turn. Not a bad effort for such a poor performer (in your eyes) up against a Liberal heavyweight (no pun intended) and in some peoples eyes a possible leader of the Liberals down the track
PS.
With tea and all out of the way I have had a chance to think a bit more about how aggressive M/s Gillard is and if you compared her public persona against the aggressiveness of the women I know I would have to say that she was a little reserved compared to them – but maybe I just like women that are prepared to stand on the hind legs and howl (as my departed father use to say). Now maybe she is more aggressive in private but that is something that you and I will never be in a position to judge
I think that this may be a topic that you and I will never agree on.
Left E it just goes to show that 11 years is a long time in Government and no Government is perfect or comes away after 11 years being squeaky clean if you think thats possible i sure dont…
If its any consolation i dont like the HR Nicholls society or Minchins support of them…but i dont think its fair to put so much blame on Vaile for the AWB scandal and i think Chris Ellison would take offence to being called a loser just because he’s in the Senate doesnt make him a loser…but it does make him somebody not making people have heard of.
William I will honor my commitment to contribute some $$ to your site but I can not tolerate a site that allows people like Glen to make bs accusations about good people being terrorist sympathisers and you dont delete that or moderate that. Congratulations, you HAD a very good blog space, once.
Ciao.
Rudd’s gone! With Sydney in lock-down, any Australian living more than 50 km from Sydney will be in raptures with the rodent’s decision to hold APEC in Sydney, rewarding him, the HIH specialist and Lord Downer with a massive swing.
Hawke was leader for how long? His government initiated much needed social and economic reforms, the benefits of which we continue to reap daily. Leaders are not born into their position, which sounds like what you are intimating. Rudd has been shadow foreign minister for 6 years, which (in addition to his extensive diplomatic career, and experience as Goss’s COS) will serve Australia very well in an era of international insecurity.
Nothing like some nice Buxtehude and a cup of tea and a butternut snap to calm the nerves after a bout of vigorous name-calling. I recommend it to all…
TofK Hawke was a trade union leader of the ACTU for decades before being Prime Minister i count that as leadership experience…Rudd has none except in 2006-2007…Rudd just doesnt have enough leadership experience and has nobody to take over from him if god forbid he won and got hit by a bus…Gillard will our Prime Minister when he’s overseas i dont doubt her intelligence one little bit she’s a sharp politician but she’s not a leader…
Dont worry William, unity still loves ya’, even if you conduct the occasional knifing.
I’d say being a Premier’s chief of staff, and key policy advisor requires alot of leadership, in substance rather than image, both of which Mr Rudd has mastered effortlessly. Personally, I think Rudd’s leadership since taking the helm in December has been better than any Labor leader since Hawke.
gotta zzzzz, read your rebuttal maybe later, hey, maybe not at all.
But wait Glen, what happens if the entire ALP front bench gets hit by a bus?
What if Howard actually grew a conscience and some accountability.
Why raise unlikely scenarios?
I’m just saying who else but Rudd could lead the ALP if he wasnt there its a valid question asanque i think you should try to answer it….
If Howard went the Liberals have
Costello
Turnbull
Nelson
Julie Bishop
I’m sure the Labor Party must have some potential leaders i none come to mind though you might be able to fill in the blanks?
Newsflash:
In the latest polls, Liberal supporters have gained hope with the latest polls showing John Howard gaining 2% over Gillard as the preferred PM should Rudd get hit by a bus.
John Howard’s preferred PM level is now 27%. Liberal supporters are now pushing for more balanced media reporting that takes into account Gillard being hit by a bus.
Frankly, as a member of the ALP, and someone formerly intimate with student politics, I am sick of lefty crybabies taking blog postings so serious that they run off crying. Toughen up, for God’s sake.
Glen: I think Gillard would do a fine job as leader of the ALP.
As Howard has shown, its not that tough to be the Prime Minister. You get all the million dollar perks and you just blame everyone else for your own mistakes.
That’s why we need for hardline rightwingers in the ALP, like Mike Kelly.
Ruawake,
I must have watched a different 7.30 Report to you. I got annoyed with Hockey because it seemed that every answer has the words “union bosses†in it somewhere.
The nervous nellies are starting to bolt!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22365129-601,00.html
“Government MPs were shell-shocked by the [59 / 41] poll. One minister said he had the impression that many in the Government, particularly nervous backbenchers, had accepted a “swing was on” and the Coalition was finished.”
No, what is needed is more lefties with a thick skin and a backbone.
Get used it Rats, they will be banging on about union bosses every ten seconds till election day. It’s all they can think of, even though there is no evidence at all that the punters give a toss about it.
You are not going to believe this. After all that crap about bloggers not understanding newspoll, Shanahan has called the accuracy of newspoll into question. The man has no shame.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/polling_accuracy_a_matter_of_opinion/
At least as PM you never have to say sorry.
Nostradamus will love it! The Libs are trailing Labor because of the “Do not call registry!”
I can’t laugh too loud, as I will wake up my wife. But JESUS!
He raises the idea that young people only have mobiles, but he forgets that that demographic is showing a 10% swing to Labor. Does he think it is actually 15%?
Isn’t Labor the original broad church party. There has been a huge diversity of opinion housed in one party. I’m thinking of people like Peter Walsh and John Dawkins who came from Liberal backgrounds, but joined Labor in uni.
We know Newspoll is crap, cos we own it!
LOL!
Here’s some Paul Kelly in today’s Oz.
“Since his 1996 election, Howard has presided over a fall in unemployment from 8.5 per cent to 4.3 per cent. Such a result would have been inconceivable when Howard was first elected. Yet the inconceivable is now assumed. ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22364265-7583,00.html
Why was it “inconceivable” that unemployment would fall? The reforms of the 1980s, and enterprise bargaining, killed off inflation. Is it that surprising that growth led to jobs?
The trouble now is that the government has wasted billions trying to get re-elected, which is pushing on inflation.
Good old Shannas a Saltwart till the end…
What is puzzling is that our economy and nation has been going from strength to strength since Howard took office and i know the left winger say this is bull dust but consider the facts…Since 1996, Howard has presided over the creation of 2.2 million jobs, the decisive factor for prosperity and equity, low interest rates, low inflation and even the current national accounts released show an economy growing at 4.3 per cent over the year.
In spite of all this Howard still faces annihilation….i can only say it is puzzling because William McMahon and Malcolm Fraser were not as far behind as Howard is at the moment 2PP and yet those two failures were still competitive in the polls until they were beaten.
If Rudd does win and its looking more likely each day…he’ll have re-written the school books on how to win an election because…even if the economy is going well and even if an Opposition leader has been around for less than a year it is still possible to beat an 11 year incumbent Government…But as we say of all Governments that lose…the Opposition weren’t voted for the people voted against the Government…
My contribution to Dennis “three wise monkeys” Shanahan
The BBC international news is reporting that Bush has arrived in Australia for talks with John Howard and Kevin Rudd on Iraq. Equal billing for Rudd with Howard on the international news. Not bad.
More Kelly:
“Howard has decided that the only way the polls will turn is by calling the election.”
Interesting, that means November 3 is most likely. There is an interest rate announcement on the 7th, so I think that rules the 10th out.
But this is my favourite line in the article:
“It is true that Rudd’s vote may be soft. ”
Can I also add that it is true that Rudd’s vote may be hard?
Also: “There may be a defect with polling methodology this year.”
Can I also add there may not be a defect wtih polling methodology this year.
WOW, and Kelly ends by suggesting Howard should resign if the party thinks it is going to lose:
“But if the Liberal Party really believes the election is lost, then Howard must consider his responsibility as leader. He needs, at least, to re-examine his position and decide whether its logic remains valid.”
Does this article count as an Opinion-Editorial, or is it an Opinion-Speculation? Has Kelly invented a new Op-Spec genre? Maybe, or maybe not. I don’t know.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22364265-7583,00.html
Stop it Glen. You’re going to make my cry. Poor little Johnnie.Those horrible ungrateful Australian voters.
Glen: You’ve summed it up in a nutshell.
Howard is presiding over one of the best economies in Australia’s history, yet the polls aren’t even close. Howard looks to lose in an absolute avalanche.
It takes someone of truly spectacular incompetency to take such a great advantage as a booming economy, and incumbency and be so far behind. All Howard had to do was look after a booming economy, yet his legacy will be inaction on critical infrastructure and reform, and abysmal foreign and domestic policy.
The best run economy in the world will not save a corrupt, deceptive, decrepit government that has lost all morality, accountability and credibility.
If you were a true Liberal supporter, you would remove the blindfold and critically analyse the Howard government’s time in power. It has been scandal after scandal full of broken promises and mismanagement.
Time to stop sucking up to Howard as the messiah and start looking at ways to regain the public’s trust.
Well Asanque your bias is quite evident in your post…but i would not expect you to think that Howard did anything right so ill leave it at that…i think it is a little rich for the Labor supporters to say we arent real Liberal supporters if we dont believe that the Howard years have been ’spectacular incompetency’ if that is the case then i would hate to see your assessment of the Keating years…
Actually, Simon, “op-ed” comes from a time when an opinion contrary to the editorial was placed next to it or on the next page. Sorry to be a pedant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Op-ed
Which makes the term “op-ed” meaningless in the context of the drivel in the Oz
The trouble with you Glen is you equate anyone that doesn’t agree with your position as an ALP member. You are a paid Liberal member. I have not voted ALP in the last 2 elections (nor did I vote for Howard) and I’m definitely not an ALP member nor a contributor.
I have previously challenged you to list Howard’s great accomplishments and you have failed to answer that challenge. It can’t be that tough can it?
What other reasons can you dig up to explain exactly why Howard is so far behind with the economy going so well?
And bias isn’t present in any of your posts!?
But doesn’t Shamaham realise that Political Parties and Opinion Pollsters are EXEMPT from the Do Not Call Register.
To use an Italian Swear word, he is a Testa Di Cazzo (Dickhead)
BUSH to HOWARD: “41%! Ah dream of numbers like that!”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,5640382,00.jpg
I didnt say u were an ALP member asanque but you are a left winger…
Howard has a lot to be happy about achieving in 11 years of Government…
Gun Control
East Timor
Waterfront
GST – yes it was a good idea
2.2 million new jobs
Home loan interest rates have averaged 7.25% since March 1996.
Paying Off Labor’s 96billion dollar debt thus 8b extra to spend on infrastructure
Unemployment 4.4%
Real wages increasing by 17.9%
The Family Tax Benefit
Defence funding at a record $19.6 billion in 2006-07.
Workplace Reforms that have contributed to low unemployment thanks mainly to the removal of unfair dismissal laws.
Commonwealth funding for the higher education sector in 2006 was $7.8 billion, up from $5.4 billion in 1996 (an increase of 21% in real terms).
Tough Immigration laws and the halting of people smuggling
The establishment of 28 Australian Technical Colleges
Comm. Government spending on Health and Ageing $47.6 billion (06-07) a 139% increase since 1995-96
National Action Plan on Mental Health
Superannuation Reforms
Solomon Island’s assistance mission
Stronger ties with Asia…Indonesia and Japan as well as China.
FTA with the USA and Singapore and other countries.
Auslink National Land Transport Program and Roads to Recovery programs
10b Murray-Darling River Plan
Australian Government Water Fund
Greater investment in Clean Coal Technology
Low Emissions Technology Demonstration Fund
Multi billion dollar Higher Education Endowment Fund and Health Fund
Being a part of the ASEAN Regional Forum
A stronger alliance with the United States of America
Liberation of Afghanistan and Iraq from tyrannical regimes and ongoing commitment to freedom in the world and to fight global islamic fundamentalist terrorism
Aboriginal intervention in Northern Territory
Glen,
You left out that before there was John Howard, the people had nothing. No water or food or electricity. We were all poor dumb peasants without a hope in the world. We should call him Saint John. Didn’t someone say he cured cancer as well?
I merely am pointing out Paul that Howard has done a lot of good for our country over 11 years in office despite what you and your fellow Howard haters say…
time for bed zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
At least on that we can agree.
Red Wombat at post 525, I dips me lid to ya.
This has gotta be the quote of the evening:
“When ever you see Hockey try and defend Workchoices it’s like watching him eat a shit sandwich”
Outstanding.
Adam,
No need to sate the bleeding obvious
The point was that Ruawake said that the phrase “union bosses†was only mentioned once. I think he must have been involved in something rather important to miss the other “union bosses†spewed out by Mr Hockey.
I have no choice but to “get use to it†but I will be buggered if I will like it.
If it looks like dog shit, smells like dog shit, feels like dog shit and tastes like dog shit it must be dog shit and if people don’t like me calling it dog shit …tough.
So for everyone benefit …….. IT IS DOG SHIT
366 Thank you Possum for informing us when the 3rd quarter Newspoll detail was due. The last one showed the significant movement of voting intention against the Coalition in the marginal seats (8-10%) and safe Coalition seats (10-14%). If memory serves, these results came from the April/June quarter when the ALP vote was at it’s highest but rough calculations indicate a drop of around 1-2% for this quarter. For me the interesting data is always where the swing is; state-wise and seat-wise.
IMHO, the Coalition have a 3-fold problem with unemployment, WorkChoices and interest rates: firstly, 4.4% unemployment is an excellent result but is largely locked-in while the Boom is on, and has had an effect on the 3.2% who are now employed for the first-time in a long time or ever, since they either had to (due to social security reform) or have picked up relatively low paid jobs (including those in IT) – not as many in this position see this as a positive as the Gov’t would like (bludgers!) although the general populace do but are seeing the economy as indestructible (there is an interesting effect here where strong growth boosts confidence yet deepens insecurities due to possible inflationary pressures on interest rates);
secondly, those in a job would generally like to keep their job – pay rises are good but job security is most important especially in an environment of rising interst rates and high personal debt;
and finally we have interest rates themselves – this includes 30% with mortgages and many of the rest with credit cards, especially those who never pay them off – and the promises of the last election; one of my strong memories of these rises has been the PM and Treasurer repeatedly stating that they weren’t required and looking quite helpless and powerless when they came. This is the collective political memory that has come back to haunt them . . . . and there is nothing they can do about it.
Most other issues aren’t primary because they don’t affect the hip-pocket nerve (will they dare offer tax cuts and risk the Reserve Bank raising rates in advance?) but the secondary issues add to the perception:
my boss can’t believe he got away with going to war (this from a conservative war veteran!),
my racing friends for the EI debachle,
my empathic friends for the Pacific (final?!) Solution,
and me for the fact that JWH is a lying rodent.
All the little(!) things add up when the major issues push people away and can be used to justify changes of opinion/position.
For myself, I thought when they got control of the Senate they’d do far more damage (yes, I know they’ve done a lot but I was expecting far worse!). Politically speaking, they really took their eyes off the ball.
Oh! and I’m looking forward to seeing the new trend lines!
‘Rats
I was wrong Joe Hockey said “union bosses” twice in the 7.30 rpt interview, he mentioned unions 16 times. (check the transcript)
My point is that someone has whispered in his ear to drop the bosses line.
Glen: You reached a new low last night! I thought you were a cut above Nostrodamus and Steven Kaye: obviously not!
Ollie: don’t leave! We need you over here!
Coalition marginal seat holders ought to be shitting themselves: if the polls are correct, they are goners.
I can’t wait, it’s the Howard/Bush love in today.
Simon 627: LOL
Glen:
From your list:
1. Gun Control – Good initiative
2. East Timor – Also a positive
3. Waterfront – be more specific
4. GST – debateable and the implementation process was flawed. It has also failed to make good on the promise of a simpler tax system. The original GST before Democrat intervention was okay, afterwards, the system was a mess.
5. What reforms did John Howard do to create these jobs?
6. Howard does not control interest rates
7. Selling assets to pay debts does not make good policy.
8. Same as 5
9. What reforms did Howard do to cause this?
10. Inconsistent welfare policy
11. Waste of money
12. There is a reason it was called ‘unfair dismissal’.
13. Eductation funding has been haphazard and is a known problem with the Howard government
14. 28 failing technical colleges
15. Election bribes
16. Okay
17. Keating started superannuation
18. Okay
19. Pre-emptive strikes. I also disagree with better Asian relationships, especially given John Howard’s xenophobia.
20. A flawed FTA with the US where Australia lost out
21. Pork barreling extraordinare
22. No consultation with anyone and due in High Court
23. Too little too late
24-25. Extremely poor environment record
26. Another fund and no fixing of infrastructure
27. Really?
28. At the expense of our international prestige with a lame duck president.
29. Absolute unmitigated disaster
30. Ignore a problem for 10 years and then use it as an election stunt.
I’ll give you 3/30 Glen.
What is notable is the key elements I raise before. Lack of infrastructure and economic reform. Howard’s 11 years will be known as the ‘wasted years’.
Glen gets facts wrong
“Also Howard had been a Minister and Opposition leader for longer than Brumby was before taking over…i rest my case.”
Howard pre-PM: OL for 4yr 10m (total); minister 7yr 3m, 5yr 3m as treasurer.
Brumby pre-Premier: OL for 5yr 9m; minister for 7yr 10m, 7yr 2m as treasurer.
Glen cannot understand logical arguments
“If the experience factor is no biggy for Labor then Mike why dont you name 6 ALP front benchers”
Glen regurgitates propaganda
Anyone who opposes the Iraq war is a “a freedom hating…terrorist sympathising…anti-american”.
Glen it is not your conservative politics that make you a laughing stock here, it is your inability to get your facts correct, to understand or construct logical arguments and your constant parroting of simplistic propaganda.
I would like to take exception with the low unemployment statistics. When I lived in Sydney I knew of at least 5 guys locally (in my pub trivia team) that were unemployed, but not counted in any statistics as they were not registered, as they worked very sporadically .
The definition of unemployment for statistical purposes is now , anyone working less than 1 hour a week. Goodness me, of course the rate has fallen is it was originally counted as more than 1 hour!
My husband was unemployed recently but never registered for the dole (as I work and we are paying off a mortgage he wouldn’t get benefits) and was also told therefore he would not get assistance to find work. So he was never in the unemployment stats either. Unemployment is worse than these stats, and I supect the terms of measurement have changed so things appear more favourable than they are.
Yes Glen, the Labour Party have an inexperienced front bench and it’s ok.
Concealed in your blizzards of invective, slander and foaming-at-the-mouth wishful thinking there are a few snowflakes of truth. Or is that an illusion?
Seriously comrade, punctuation was invented for a reason.
I think the Labor Party wrote George Bush’s speech. He reminded every one of three of the four top issues. He mentioned climate change. Then George encouraged us to embrace nuclear power. Next covering Iraq. Kevin would be upset George didn’t work in the IR issue for a clean sweep. But 3 out of 4 ain’t bad.
The old “inexperience” argument that Glen constantly pushes really only points to the fact that the Libs can’t given any legitimate or compelling reasons not to vote Labor.
If you have to resort to such logically empty arguments, then you are only highlighting just how ELECTABLE Labor has become.
This is the BIG problem the Libs now have. They and their government seem to only stand on a platform of illogical, irrational, and mostly deceitful arguments for why they should remain in power. And now that the public have become highly skeptical and cynical of anything that Howard and his ministers say and do, as they should, they have now become more awake than ever before to the flaws in their arguments.
This is why union-bashing has failed. It is why smear and fear has generally failed. And it is even why myths of superiority in economic management are finally starting to crumble.
Glen is symptomatic of the core problem within today’s Liberal Party. Howard and all the rest assume that they can trot out any old lie and just expect the public to believe and agree with it! This is hopelessly naive and grossly out of touch.
The Liberal Party need massive reform before it becomes completely irrelevant to mainstream Australian society. And Glen, if you are reading this, then your efforts would be much better directed towards trying to understand why and how your party is losing its relevance and how to repair it rather than contributing even further to its fundamental problems and therefore its ultimate demise.
Rats
Actually, thanks for framing the argument the way you did, you, no doubt do show debating skills and craft your responses very well!
This is a blog and I don’t like to reveal much about myself, we all thrive on our anonymity in blogspace (no?) but I do have a background in debating and, shall we say, speaking to large groups…
I wasn’t sure if you were referring to physical/personal attributes with regard to how well a politician is perceived to present his or herself. Actually, I was just letting you know that I certainly wasn’t. I am a firm believer in meritorious promotion and do realise how damned tough it is for a woman to get ahead in “boy’s clubs”.
Having said this, those who do make it often have to (quite wrongly) prove themselves. Trades, Unions, Law and Politics are all spheres where it can resemble a war zone at times. Julia Gillard is no stranger to any of these domains but I wonder if she “overshoots the mark” with defensiveness and aggression in the public arena. I make no judgments about her in private life (my political friends on that side assure me that she is delightful and witty!) but politics is largely the public face.
Thatcher? Ooops yes, I just wet myself.. still happens at times. She scares me too and I found her abrasive and arrogant much of the time.
The other, rather contentious, think I will assert is that sometimes in politics, women can be promoted for reasons other than merit and it is a good political tactic to make to present women as candidates and portfolio holders, where possible. They often appeal to both men and women voters. Thus, we usually have a slight over-representation in portfolio positions on both sides. The contentious part is this: sometimes, they are not promoted because they are good, but because they are women. This is a shame, because I am very sympathetic to the cause of increasing female representation in politics and it can even reinforce the stereotype of women not performing as well as men.
I submit Wilson Tuckey, whom I believe would be superior in policy-writing, public presentation, handling Tony Joneses and advocating the Labor Party to average Australians. He would be great in IR.
The experience thing won’t even register on the election radar. Don’t know why anyone bothers answering Glens prognostications. Not even a blip. Let him rave on about nothing. It makes him feel useful.
What impresses me is the warm glowing praise John Howard got from an extremely unpopular president. His unpopularity is equal to Richard Nixon’s lowest ever. 27%. Funny its the same party.
Would you go to a job interview with references from an employer whom everyone despised?
Paul Keating has hit the nail on the head.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/howard-no-binding-force-keating/2007/09/05/1188783275941.html
To put it another way, one too many wedgies.
Generic Oracle
Thanks for you comments.
I think that women have a real problem in adapting to the “men’s club†environment and simply for the reason that they have a distinct lack of role models. It becomes a real problem for them in developing and presenting a persona that fills all the requirements that us men put on them.
How often have we heard that she is too ………….. (please fill in the quality/weakness of your choice). However, for men we seem to use different criteria. We say Howard is dishonest or a fighter but we hardly ever say that he is “too†something.
From a distance, the women at the moment that seems to have a good balance is M/s Clinton but maybe if I was more interested in US politics that opinion would change. Maybe in 100 years women will have had enough time to have developed role models that have developed a persona that men are comfortable with. Then again maybe it is just men that have to develop an understanding of women.
Your assertion about the advancement of women has some validity. I have known some to get promoted because they have a very nice body and a nice smile but they are in the minority. Women are like men in that they are ambitious and will use all their abilities to gain an advantage, just like men. However, for each woman that got advancement for reasons other than skill there are 100 guys who got ahead because of reasons other than skill. Such things as playing the right sport or going to the right pub/club/university or because they are very good at the politics of the “game†rather than the game itself.
The placing of women in inappropriate roles I think is a men’s problem rather than one for women. How often have you seen women placed in control of areas that could be classed as social? An example of this was Carmen Lawrence who was made shadow Health Minister (as was Gillard). Now Lawrence was an ex premier use to the hard decision of running a state but she was not considered for one of the “hard†areas of the federal arena. The only reason that Gillard got IR in Rudds team was that she worked in IR prior to politics and because she had a choice as deputy leader.
I find that a biggest thing holding back women is themselves. All the women that I know well have a common flaw (if that is the right word) -they all feel guilty. Now I have to admit that I don’t understand but every one was guilty (in her own mind) about something. Maybe it was the kids or hubby or something else.
I don’t understand but I just know they all feel/felt guilty.
However I feel that if a women gets to the top she has done so on merit (in the vast majority of cases) and very hard work under conditions that most men do not understand and until women as a grope start to feel comfortable in these new roles they should be given encouragement rather than roadblocks. They have a lot to offer and society can benefit greatly for their involvement.
I would have to echo your comments about Thatcher but in a couple of hundred years I bet she will be regarded as one of Britains greatest PM along with Churchill and others. I say this even though I disliked he politics.
Once again thanks – this little discussion has been enjoyable.
Amazing blog William. Thanks.
Let us know when you need a dollar top up.
Ruawake,
I will take your word for the number of times that Hockey mentioned “union bossesâ€.
I have to admit that I though it was more.
However, maybe I am just showing a distinct lack of tolerance to the dog shit that Hockey and his mates spew forth.
Maybe I need some sensitivity training:):)
ROFLOL!!
What a gaffe!! At the risk of ever having this glaring error quoted back at me, please let me make a correction!!
My comment in #644:
“I submit Wilson Tuckey, whom I believe would be superior in policy-writing, public presentation, handling Tony Joneses and advocating the Labor Party to average Australians. He would be great in IR.”
I would not wish Wilson Tuckey on the Labor Party at all!! I do, of course mean Lindsay Tanner!!
Rats
Actually you make a valid point about the type of portfolios often given to women, Health & “Social” portfolios would be more common, now that you mention it.
I also agree that Gillard picked her portfolio, my guess would be due to her (justifiable) expertise in the field and admittedly, a very sincere passion for the rights of workers. In part, this can be attributed to her respect for her father, the Welsh mining background.
I think, just like the AFL, the match-ups need to be right and Gillard does a formidable job on Hockey, who often looks like a fish out of water.
Ironically, Turnbull would not have been my choice for an Environment portfolio (not sure who would be in the Libs, actually!!), nevertheless, for a variety of reasons, he has had more traction that Peter Garrett.
I think Costello EATS Swan and Tony Abbott is a greyhound to Nicola Roxon’s rabbit… not that Joe Punter really cares about parliamentary reparte.
I don’t think Gillard has the same political awareness that Rudd has, but I do think, in some areas (Health certainly NOT one of them) she does have sincerity of purpose and knowledge (whereas Rudd is yet to show passion for a singular cause… possibly education??).
Rudd was smart to allow Julia the IR portfolio. He is no friend of Unions and making it quite clear that it was “Julia’s baby” was a masterstroke. If the original policy flew, it was one less headache, if it didn’t (as was the case), he could swoop in and play hero, appeasing the business community, appearing tough on Unions (who are really painted into a corner and may even retaliate, albeit in vain, through the Greens) and coming across as a leader strong at negotiation.
Unfortunately for the ALP, I have to admit, the IR alternative is neither fish nor fowl. It leaves in the tourniquet of unfair dismissal for small business, frustrates the unions with ROE rules, confuses the public (how is it different, can someone explain AWA’s with Kevin again??) and more like Chemotherapy to cancer…
All in all, it is not a good look for Julia and a bit of DeJaVu (Medicare Gold?).
Kevin, on the other hand, is roses. That’s why he is the leader
2. East Timor – Also a positive
Uhh, Howard had to be dragged kicking and screaming by overwhelming and very strong public opinion into that one.
However, he did finally agree to it.
So definitely not 3/30, but maybe 2.5/30.
Ruawake,
NP
:)
I knew you must be making a point but I could not work it out so I just let it lie where it was.
I suffer from foot in mouth without doing it deliberately so I thought the discretion was the better part of valour.
Tanner is fine and I think that he has a big future in the Labor Party
However, running a political party is like running a football team. One not only play the best players one must also balance the team.
I think Gillard has it over Tanner in IR simply on the basis of her experience outside politics. I am not sure of Tanners experience but being a partner in a leading law firm specialising in IR is exceedingly hard to beat.
Gillard’s experience would have encountered all aspects of IR developing and policy analysis.
Maybe Tanner has this experience but it has escaped my attention if he has.
It is also an example of pushing women off into the “soft†areas of politics that I mentioned previously.
PS
I did not know of Gillard’s personal experience and her family’s background in the mining industry.
When evaluating any party’s platform one must be mindful of what they are trying to do. In this case Labor is trying to get elected after a long period and eventual period in opposition.. Everything else takes a back seat to that. This is the first rule of any political party. The rest is just froth and bubbles.
This is where I think Howard has come undone – he forgot the golden rule and went off on a private sojourn to get his IR policy up in what has turned out to be the face of very angry electorate who will in the next couple of months put him out to pasture for trying on this little daydream.
Though you appear disillusioned with Labor’s IR policy remember that once in and in the years ahead they will be in a position to ever so solely change the IR laws to whatever they want so long as they don’t scare the horses.
To this end Rudd has positioned himself to play the Master Coach role. I would bet pounds to peanuts that Rudd and the shadow cabinet have given the OK everything that Gillard has done. However, if something does not work Rudd can come in over the top, play the decisive leader role and change things without the party loosing face.
This is a tough role for Gillard but as they say in the classics –“someone has to do itâ€- and leaves Rudd as you noted in your last line smelling of roses. This in the nature of current campaigning style (ie Presidential) with the Leader out in front the rest trailing along behind.
I think that to understand Labor’s IR policy you only have to remember two things.
1) There are no AWA’s
2) The unfair dismissals laws are back but easier to live with (i.e. do not apply within the first 12-month, does not apply to business with less than 15 employees.
The over $100,00 rule are more like common law contracts than AWA’s and without going into the differences between common law employment contracts and AWA’s we should accept them as such.
Now I know this is a very skimpy outline but can you list any other policy from any other party on any issue that contained mush more detail i.e. the GST which though trumpeted as simple is a very complex piece of legislation which will not be fully understood for quite some time to come –ie till we have had a couple of hundred court cases decided on this piece of legislation.
As an addendum I would say that business get off real easy in respect of its responsibility to workers. There are two areas that need urgent attention. Firstly, with at least one employee being killed at work each week we need industrial manslaughter legislation. Secondly, employee entitlements should be protected with the business being required to put away actual cash (not provisions) to cover all entitlements. It is not their money. It is the employees money however the current accounting standards and the law treats this money as though it is still the businesses with only provisions being made in the businesses books.
However, this is a long and detailed discussion and I think more than a little bit off topis and I “may†be pushing Williams “goodwill†with my current comments.
Glen (532),
The people of Victoria voted for the independents too. They put their cards on the table for a number of issues such as reform of the Upper House (Liberal policy in 1973) and Labor came through. The rightness of their decision was confirmed by the results of the subsequent by-elections in Benalla and Burwood and of the Big Ones in 2002 and 2006.
When I say we haven’t looked back, I am referring to the extra police, nurses and teachers, the reform to the constitution, the massive re-investment in schools ($1.4 billion so far an $1.9 billion this term), the re-introduction of proper academic disciplines like history and geography instead of the trendy Liberal mess of SOSE – now to be followed by all the other states and territories – except NSW, which had the good sense not to adopt SOSE in the first place because the Right rules Labor there!
Generic Oracle (533),
My apologies for misspelling your nom de screen. Not everyone can be a Victorian. Jeff Kennett did survive two terms, but the first was not the people “sticking with†him. As a matter of strict logic, only the second can be so described.
Barbara (640),
The unemployment statistics do not come from registrations but from random surveys by the ABS. According to Ross Gittins, the one-hour boundary for unemployment has been the same for over 30 years. It was not the invention of the Howard Government, even though I keep reading that it was.
One of the betting agencies said on the radio,”the punters always get it right”. In regard to betting on elections.
Chris
LOL, well, only the punters that picked the one which actually wins!!
Glen Says: But Simon i thought Rudd said he was a Christian Socialist???
Maybe you should look up the definition of ‘liberal’ some time Glen.
Hey stop giving Glen a hard time. He’s providing a running commentary on just exactly why the liberals are heading towards decimation. Without him around, people might forget.
Alexander Downer actually cracked a funny joke, when talking about panders someone said they only mate once a year. Downer said I’m glad I’m not a pander. Mind you Peter McGaren last week was talking about stud horses serving five times a day. In reference to losses from horse flu. Red Symonds made a few comments, but he left that one alone.