I’m hearing it, but not quite yet believing it – Labor’s Newspoll lead has apparently widened to a breathtaking 59-41 (from 55-45 last time). Details to follow as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 46-39 to 48-37.
UPDATE 2: Comments thread rumours tell of a Labor primary vote of 51 per cent, against 37 per cent for the Coalition.
659 Comments
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Indeed.
For example the Libs in 72, the ALP in 96 and the Libs again in 2007.
I wonder if there’s a pattern?
Um, Q above is me. It’s not some obscure Trekkian reference, just little fingers trying to get in on the keyboard action…
But since Q won’t get his say for awhile I’ll repeat myself.
Indeed.
For example the Libs in 72, the ALP in 96 and the Libs again in 2007.
I wonder if there’s a pattern?
blackburnpseph
I’ll tell you one this the experience argument is not a crock…it cost both Hewson and Latham a shot at being Prime Minister…
Look had Rudd been Opposition leader since the 2004 election loss he’d have had just enough leadership experience…but he’s been a ‘leader’ for less than 1 year and yet people think he’ll do a good job as Prime Minister are you kidding??? Had Beazley still been the leader the experience argument couldnt be used but Rudd is inexperienced and it can and should be used against him…not to mention more than half of his invisible front bench!
When i use the experience argument i dont mean there shouldnt be any changes of Government but for Gods Sake put someone in whose been leader for more than a year and in Parliament for more than 10 years at least…Rudd fails both categories and so the experience argument will hurt him if the Libs can hit him in the campaign…
I just received an email from Portlandbet with updated odds. Here are the meaty bits (their words, not mine):
The flow of money this week has been for Labor and not only in seats considered marginal. The Labor go has included many so-called safe Coalition seats and it has been across the country. No seat seems safe for the Coalition.
Seats where Labor has been backed as a hefty outsider include:
Gilmore $12 to $3.75
Hughes $12 to $2.65
Dawson $11 to $4.75
Fairfax $10 to $7
Leichhardt $8 to $2.80
McPherson $12 to $5
Wide Bay $11 to $7
Boothby $5.50 to $3.30
Aston $12 to $11
Canning $3.65 to $3.25
The most interesting go has been in the seat of Hughes, where Labor has been backed from $12 to $2.65. The seat of Hughes is currently held by Danna Vale, who has held the seat since 1996 when the Howard-led Coalition swept to power after thirteen years in opposition. The money certainly suggests Ms. Vale may be considering retirement. Such a move could be seen as someone deserting a sinking ship. Perhaps Ms. Vale sees the writing on the wall with all signs pointing to an ALP election victory.
Experience!
The experience of Howard, brought in Work Choices without warning without consultation, railed against the unions for 18 months when they said it was unfair and people were being ripped off.
Finally bowed to pressure due to poor polls and introduced a “Fairless Test” as aknowledgment that people were being ripped off and being treated unfairly. Yet the “Fairless Test” has so many holes in it it may as well not been brought in and it also excluded the 350,000 previously signed up under Work Choices from the “Fairless Test”.
A major policy change, hurriedly introduced, no consultations, it’s failings and unfairness ignored until pressure from the polls brought cosmetic changes.
This sort of experience we do not need.
“When people talk about experience, what they really want to know is, ‘Does he have good judgment?’” Obama said.
One hopes that more experience means better judgment, he said, but “everybody knows a lot of 50-, 60- and 70-year-olds that don’t have good judgment, because they keep on making the same mistakes over and over again.”
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?articleId=2002cf48-eadc-4ec5-a96a-c07284392477&headline=Obama+says+judgment%2C+not+just+experience%2C+is+key
“I love when people criticize me about my foreign policy experience when they got either snowed into or intimidated into supporting the biggest foreign policy disaster in a generation, and I’m thinking well what good was your experience if you showed such poor judgment?” Obama said at a house party in Bedford.
Experience!
The experience of Howard and house prices and his investor friendly policies that saw prices skyrocket.
“JOHN HOWARD: And I haven’t found anybody in seven-and-a-half years shake their fist at me and say, Howard, I’m angry with you for letting the value of my house increase.”
“JOHN HOWARD: You haven’t actually complained. What you’re really saying is the value of our house hasn’t gone up enough (laughs).
PHYLLIS: No, no, no, no. I disagree.
JOHN HOWARD: I’m sorry.
PHYLLIS: I think that it’s ridiculous with the inflation of the housing prices…
JOHN HOWARD: So, you’d like to…
PHYLLIS: …because what about our grandchildren?
JOHN HOWARD: Well, look, look, that is a valid point.”
Yeah a really valid point, what about our grandchildren and our children, how are they going to be able to afford to buy a house.
Just think without the EXPERIENCE of Howard we would still have affordable housing today.
#411 Paul, you mention the 15 seats which Labor are currently predicted to gain according to sportingbet. I`m not sure why you say they are not in the hunt anywhere else though. Here are 10 seats in NSW and Qld alone in which portlandbet has the ALP at $2.50 or better – Bowman, Flynn, Herbert, Hinkler, Bennelong, Greenway, Page, Paterson, Robertson, Wentworth.
julia killed shreck on the 7.30 report. arrogant out of touch the libs what a shame
I don’t know if it has been mentioned, but Martin O’Shannessy, CEO of Newspoll, was interviewed on NewsRadio today. He is now predicting Labor to win the election. He says that is now the “most likely” outcome.
Woah! Gillard just tore Schrek a new green *sshole on 7.5
This is the killer problem for Howard on house prices. Not so much whether they are going up or even whether people can afford them, but that he is out of touch (and appears it) to what rising house prices can mean. For someone who won power on this ‘Battler’ image, he is handling this very badly. His advice must be terrible these days.
Julia Gillard just shredded Joe Hockey on 7.30 report, who was Joe looking at off camera to give him the answers?
I admit he only said union bosses once.
Won’t be any worse than Howard, most likely will be a lot better.
What a ramshackle IR policy the ALP has i dont think one Australia actually understands their policy that still keeps so much of workchoices in place…
Gillard has shown why she needs to be hidden by the ALP during the election campaign…she’s not articulate, she’s monotone and whiny and can’t keep her sentences together…and for crying out loud could she have have a worse hair cut i mean seriously at least Julie Bishop tries to look half decent and feminine…i know Hockey’s a fat man and is setting a bad example because of that but Gillard could scrub up better for a 7:30report debate…
Both sides have got IR wrong as far as im concerned….
The ALP policy brings back the good old days for the Union bosses…and will increase unemployment in this country
The Coalition’s policy didnt have enough safeguards in place for the original laws…
It’s interesting to watch the Libs cast around for a reason that their polling is so dire. But it’s simple – it’s WorkChoices. People hate it and are fearful of what it means in the future. What’s more, WCs is proving to be a lightning rod for all of people’s anxieties about work. There don’t appear any upsides to it (unlike, say, the GST, which came with big fat tax cuts) for normal people. Throw in a credible and likeable Labor leader, and it’s easy to see why the government is doomed.
Gillard – 1 Hockey – 0
Piping
Howard actually laughed during the interview when he thought the woman was complaing about house prices, he thought she was saying they hadn’t gone up enough when she was complaining her grandkids would not be able to buy a house.
I will post a link to the interview later and you can hear him laugh,
High house prices hahahahahhaha
people can’t buy houses hahahahahahaha
Jackie Kelly has eight hahahahahahahaha
I support Peter Debnam sacking 20,000 public servants so that investors can get relief from stamp duty to buy another 8 houses hahahahahaha.
The EXPERIENCE Howard and his mob of cronies has is at looking after themselves and their mates and stuff the rest.
Why hasn’t anyone on this pseph-site questioned the sample size of this newspoll?
Am I missing something here?
When Morgan came out last week reporting 54.5% for Labor, there was a heap of posts about the suspect sample size of 1271.
Now this Newspoll says the sample size was just 1147, approximately 10% less??? (Including a green primary vote that is less than half of its 2PP at 2004 election, which is about a credible as a “dodgy brothers” advertisment)
Where have all the critics gone?
Don’t get me wrong, this poll is bad for the libs, but even so, some cold analysis and unbiased critisim wouldn’t go astray
Don’t forget rising rents, as well as rising house prices. Not only are rents practically unaffordable in the same areas as houses are unaffordable, but the process of applying for a tenancy in a landlord’s market is humiliating. I have seen queues several blocks long to inspect a vacant flat. And a real estate agent told me that there are often several DOZEN suitable tenants for every vacancy, and the agents spend half their time consoling perfectly good potential tenants that there was really nothing wrong with their applications, it’s just that the landlord chose someone else. God knows how students manage to rent in the city.
And if people struggle to pay the rent, they won’t save anything towards a house. So the issues are interconnected.
I don’t think there’s much Rudd can do about rents, house prices, petrol prices or rising food prices in the short term. But he has acknowledged the problem. That may well be enough to swing the voters. How a Labor Government would deal with these problems is a matter for the NEXT election campaign, I think.
Fagin at 454,
There’s a few other seats that have had big movements towards Labor in the last couple of days:
Cook from about $11 to $4.75
Macarthur from $9 to $4.40
North Sydney from $11 to $9
Casey from $10+ to $4.75
Dunkley from $9 to $3.50
Forde from $9 to $4.75
There’s quite a few others (like Sturt and Paterson) that have also shifted significantly over the last couple of days, but I can’t remember what the odds were before.
All up, every betting market seems to have been flooded with bets on Labor since the Newspoll came up yesterday – and I’m expecting more movements tomorrow as the news continues to sink in.
Julia lacking? That performance tonight was first rate. Therein lies the problem with your argument Glen – the team is only as good as the leadership. Gillard and Rudd have performed very well and promoted themselves as a strong viable alternative. With that in mind, the public needs a negative to move away from Howard and they have one in the mother of them all – Workchoices.
First rule of product marketing – never give the customer a need or desire to look at alternatives.
Yeah, this government will leave a shocking legacy on house prices. That stupid 7k subsidy just had the net effect of boosting prices by, wow, 7k, plus several more in creating a demand bubble around the initial closing date.
Coupled with the ridiculous decision to halve capital gains, they have created an entirely unproductive speculation boom by investor-buyers, which has cut out first home buyers. Why their earnings get taxed less than my wage is beyond me.
At the same time, our banks have been borrowing from the US at 2.5% – *massively* inflating the trade deficit; then passing it on at cartel rates of 7+%.
Where’s the FTA when you need it? Not for us, apparently.
Sound economic managers my ars*!
I noticed Hockey looking to the side. It was strange. Someone giving him his answers? Can’t he think for himself?
Joe was sturggling, Julia fairly much on song and, clear.
Yes, she needs a new hairdo.
Chris
I noticed that, the eye movement. Yes, strange. Julia looked less strident. Joe had nowhere to go except the old line about union – yawn – bosses.
Julia wiped the floor with Shrek. Take away all the arrogance and bluster, and this government is fast becoming a rabble.
Squiggle – this was a fairly normal sample size for Newspoll. Last week’s Morgan was small for a Morgan.
Hughes is my prediction for a surprise Labor gain on election night.
Interestingly, the Liberals are said to be still worried about Cook.
Would Leichhardt still be considered a surprise Labor gain? Coz that’s my pick for the surprise Labor gain (10.3% margin v 8.8% for Hughes)
Chris others
avuncular joe was looking around for donkey to blame
arbie
chill pill time- most people dont care about house prices and rents J-HO has given us the “greed is good” experience to replace the old ‘fair go for all” and unfortunately the plight of the less well off aint on the libs radar
the real cage rattler is WORSTCHOICES -i think the polls prove that
Hi Brian
Good to know, thnak you, but it doesn’t help me.
Why would Newspoll be more accurate with a smaller sample size?
Are Morgan’s questions more loaded towards a particular answer?
I hate to say it, but to my inexeperienced eyes, this Newspoll is close to being an outlier…
Roll on AC – or should I check for the sample size there as well
The show was almost tranquil compared to their other discussions, especially Julia, more relaxed and targeted her comments perfectly.
If Costello wants to get his name in the ledger as a PM he has only 3 months left to achieve it.
On the issue of the Green vote in Newspoll – the fgren figure for this Newspoll was not much different from previous Newspolls. but is is reasonably consistent and is no reason to suspect the overall outcome.
Newspoll seems to systemically undersetimate the Green vote.
Morgan recently had the Greens around 7-8%
I thought Pauline was trying to resurrect the UAP
Just saw 7.30 Report (I’m in SA) and I must say that Julia pretty much wiped the floor of Hockey. He looked ill-prepared and panicky, frankly, which isn’t a good look for the incumbent minister.
By contrast, she was calm, clear and articulate.
As someone said earlier – Gillard 1, Hockey 0.
She’s cant resurrect the old UAP David…the AEC were idiots for allowing her to besmirch the good names of Lyons and Menzies by ruining the name of the precursor to the Liberal Party…
It was a better name than the Liberal Party ill admit to that….
Why hasn’t anyone on this pseph-site questioned the sample size of this newspoll? Am I missing something here?
This is a standard Newspoll number. They aim to interview about 1200+ people, but some have to be thrown away for various reasons. The “throwing away” is supposed to be, and probably is, unbiased. The average number in recent Newspolls has been 1155- and never lower than 1140, never higher than 1168.
Yeah, but she doesn’t have to promote a dog of a policy. That’s a big advantage over Hockey.
When the liberal party was formed there was too much government in many countries. So I think the name “liberal” was used in the negative sense, i.e., the right of people to be left alone by excessive government meddling. This is opposed to the U.S. meaning of the term, which generally means more government provision to stamp out inequality.
OMG … how many of you normally read Crikey website? I am not a subscriber BUT I read their free stuff. This one showed up today and describes how many will lose their seats based up on last nights newspoll.
Titled “Joe Hockey, Tony Abbot: welcome to Death Row”
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070904-Welcome-to-death-row-Joe-Tony-.html
Mr Squiggle, Newspoll underestimate Green votes because they don’t include them in the nominated choices in the main ‘how will you vote’ question, only in the follow-up if the respondent says none of Labor, Lib or Nats. Morgan gives a ballot paper in F to F which includes Greens, Dems and FF, and includes them in the question in telephone polls.
There is no reason why Newspoll is regarded as being ‘better’ than Morgan except prejudice. Gary Morgan has made a goose of himself at election time by ignoring the margin of error of his polling, and placing too much credence in preference allocations of his ‘other party’ respondents, but the actual accuracy of his polls has been just as good as any of the others.
cheers
Alan H
Glen at 487: there’s nothing the AEC could do about it, I’m afraid. The UAP predates the Commission by a couple of decades, and the name is out of copyright.
But at least you get to call her “Pig Iron Pauline”.
A punt at some surprise Labor gains in the regions….Kalgoorlie, Sturt, Cowper and Flynn. Maybe Gippsland too.
I think that, in the mining seats, for every miner raking it the bucks on an AWA, there’s a dozen teachers, police officers, KFC workers, supermarket checkout chicks, bar attendants and nurses trying to live on a standard wage in a town where you can’t even find or afford a tent space at the caravan park.
They buggered up Sturt, that’s Christopher Pyne’s seat.
Today I received a letter from him asking me to fill in a petition blaming the state government for water shortages. Which is interesting, because I think it is actually caused by a lack of rain.
He proposes that S.A. should have a desalinisation plant, but has previously attacked the state government for borrowing money to build a new hospital.
#409 – the obscurity of the state Opposition leaders is perfectly illustrated by a quiz night I organised for an ALP branch a few months back, in which one of the questions was to name any five of the seven state/territory Opposition leaders outside Victoria. The highest score any table got was two.
#439 – can see where you’re coming from on Grey, but the big industrial towns are a much smaller share of the population than they were when Labor last held the seat – Whyalla (whose population has declined by something like 30% in the last 30 years) especially so. Such growth as there is in the seat is happening in places like Port Lincoln. Not impossible – with the polls the way they are at present nothing is really impossible – but if one were compiling a list of seats on double-digit margins which are a chance to fall I wouldn’t have Grey near the top of it.
Ok, so a bit more on the experience.
For baseline: prior to Rudd there have been 16 OLs since WWII.
5 of these have won elections, while 2 have never contested an election.
There have been 5 OLs without ministerial experience prior to becoming OL.
So the first main points are that ‘inexperienced’ OLs rarely get elected because
a) only 1 in 3 of all OLs get elected
b) ‘inexperienced’ people rarlely get selected as OL anyway.
Of the 5 OLs without ministerial experience prior to becoming OL, 2 have won elections (1 of these at the second attempt) and 1 never contested an election.
public
So the second main points are that
a) it’s ambitious to see much of a pattern with small numbers like this; but
b) these raw numbers don’t scream that there is a major difference.
But if we go further into it, apparently (according to some) we need to credit Hawke with prior learning while he was a union boss, and to be as conservative as possible we only consider Whitlams first election, a loss.
This then leaves us with three election losses in the hands of inexperienced opposition losses: 1969, 1993 and 2004.
1969 I’m not convinced that inexperience was a crucial factor but perhaps others can speak more knowledgeably.
1993 I’ve mentioned above: while political inexperience may be a valid reason for explaining why Hewson acted as he did, to claim that it was perceptions of inxperience per se that led to the loss is IMO perverse.
2004 inexperience was certainly (one of a number of devices) used to attack Latham with some success, I would think that it was really only because he was open to attack for other reasons that this was successful.
So the final main point is that inexperience is a charge that can, and is deployed as a political weapon, and there is some evidence that in the right circumstances this attack can be made successfully, there is little by the way of evidence in the history that inexperience of itself is punished by the electorate.
Down and Out Of Sà i Gòn I still thinks its crap they let her have that name instead of the Ginger Sepratist Movement Party…
I mean it was the name of a former Party and its just sticking her name on the end of it i mean its like the Liberals for Forests…
You all realize that even if Rudd wins in a landslide and the Libs have less than 50 seats like Labor in 1996 in 2010 we’ll win back most if not all of those seats ala 1998….Kalgoorlie, Sturt, Cowper and Flynn. Maybe Gippsland too Antonio are not Labor seats i am sorry to say and they’ll come back to the flock if they decide to drop kick Howard and the Coalition at this election…
I’d still think you should be careful about calling the election lest you sound too cocky about being in the winning position…there is such a thing as winning gracefully and that is how either righties or lefties should act whoever wins the election.
5,000 reason for Howard to delay the election.
Every week that Howard delays the election past the due date of October 3rd means an extra $5,000 dollars for him in his wage as PM, plus the associated super, plus the free rent, food and wine at Kirribill, plus the free car, electoral perks, phone, travel etc etc etc . There is also all the ministers who benefit by about $4,000 a week for each week he delays the election plus the backbenchers expected to lose their seats plus their staff plus their advisors.
For Howard alone delaying the election until December means around $45,000 to him in extra salary plus benfits. Delay it until December and Howard gets to spend one last christmas in Kirribilli. I can’t see labor kicking Howard out of Kirribilli just before christmas if Howard loses, it would be an act of bastardry that only the liberals would be capable of.
I’m tipping late Oct early Nov election for several reason’s.
1-The longer it takes the greater the chance of a leadership spill
2-The poll trend, what I suspect has happened we had late last year the election of Rudd to ALP leadership giving the voters a leader whom was
Socially and fiscally conservative while being socially Liberal enough not to be a pinko hippie but be more socially liberal than Howard.
So we had a big swing toward the ALP with a consistently massive lead, and as predicted after the budget and as policy debate intendiflied mainly around I.R we saw movement back towards the Liberals for the ALP appeared to upset the business community with its response.
Now the ALP have released some solid policies on Health and I.R which as eased Business concern a little also have remained a positive opposition while the Govt have been rather negative, joined with an interest rate rise and talk of another along with leadership tensions between Howard and Costello.
The polls have started to drift back toward the ALP.
In another thread we discussed Public Servants, now I know many people both in the Public and Private sector on $40,000 – $60,000 not Union members, many wanting to buy a home but frozen out now what are these people hearing.
“Union’s this Unions that”
While the ALP have resisted their traditional class crap instead focused on solid policies, now these people mostly live in Liberal seats, don’t march down Bourke St which explains why many say Howard isn’t hated.
I suspect the ALP may go close to matching Holt’s 66 record, and while we say people vote differently at State level, in order for the result to match the polls the next federal electrical map will look somewhat similar to the State maps.
I reckon if the polls hold and they may well especially if rates rise again then we may see some results which will surprise if not shock.
I’m not convinced that Victoria is barely moving for how can Howard’s weakness state not move when his strongest are belting him.
Considering City link tolls are not the issue they were in 04, Rudd is more electable and the ALP have very good candidate in seats like Goldstein and Kooyong.
I also suspect the Herald Sun is running cold with Howard and this is the largest selling newspaper in the country with the likes of Bolt writing Howard off.
I reckon if Rudd continues to run a positive campaign minus speaking class crap and any major policy stuffs and they have released the two most important with no major holes (Health & IR) they also have released some welfare and Education policies as well and as long as the Govt continue to behave like losers then a 10 point plus TPP is quite possible.
I doubt it. Depends on if the new Opposition Leader unites the party.
I doubt Rudd will go to an election with a stupid policy such as a new broad base consumption tax.
If Pyne loses Sturt, he won’t get it back in a hurry. Handshin is a great candidate, a former young South Australian of the year.
Why is it that you repeat whatever Dolly Downer is saying on any particular day?
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