Roy Morgan has broken its usual pattern by publishing a second face-to-face survey in successive weeks, from a sample of 915 voters. As the headline makes clear, it’s another disaster for the Coalition: Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 60-40 from a relatively mild 54.5-45.5 last time. Also up by 5.5 per cent is the number of people expecting Labor to win, from 55 per cent to 60.5 per cent; the number expecting a Coalition win is down from 31.5 per cent 26.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is up from 46 per cent to 49 per cent, while the Coalition has plunged from 41 per cent to 34.5 per cent, returning it to the previous lows of March and April.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, Morgan also has Senate voting intention figures aggregated from the past two months’ polling. As usual, these overstate the likely combined minor party vote, particularly for the Democrats.
405 Comments
Yay!
Memo to Kevin Rudd from the Australian people:
Don’t stuff it up!
I do love some of Morgan’s completely spurious explanations for the numbers…
William, my seat has the Nationals running a candidate for the first time.
Whereas Morgan does not differentiate between the 2 Coalition partners simply lumping them as the “Coalition”.
In such a seat as mine can we assume that there will be no preference flow of the lesser Coalition partner [probably the Nats in this case] AWAY from the other [Libs.]?
That is, there will be nil leakage to the ALP in such a case?
This confirms the last Newspoll of Labor leading 59-41 2PP.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; this wont be a close election – it will be a Ruddslide of biblical proportions.
Howard staying the course wont work as too many swingers have already made up their mind that it’s time for change and are no longer listening to Howard. Changing leaders wont work for the Libs either because the replacement, Costello, is an electoral negative.
I also think the theory of Labor’s lead narrowing during the formal campaign is also unfounded because if anything, Rudd is clearly the better performer in the media and is preferred by more people than Howard or Costello. So it’s more likely that he’ll win the campaign and if anything, extend his lead.
Morgan says:
Why?
Rogue
Reason 1: The Liberal Party has a larger base of political support than 34.5%
Reason 2: The Nationals polled 6% in the last election and yet Morgan has them on 1.5% go figure
While i accept the Coalition is far behind this poll is just bullcrap!
Denial stunkrat – just too hard to believe. If the last 9 months of polling has caused one to wonder about a landslide election then God himself appearing and telling you it will be a landslide isn’t going to help.
But polling companies and the media have to have a ‘close’ election … or else all that money spent on pretty graphics goes to waste.
What’s the figures then? If you say anything less than 55/45 you’ll be laughed at.
55 means Labor will win about 95 seats, which is a thumping.
Got any evidence for reason 1 Glen?
And we know the Lib / Nat coalition polling issue, it has been canvassed many times before and if you hope for the primary to be understated by 4% because of this you should go buy a lotto ticket.
No matter what he margin of win/loss, whether narrow or landslide, the Howard era is drawing to a close and no government in the future will attempt another Work Choices and will think twice about sending our troops to far off lands. Whether Rudd squanders a golden opportunity to cement Labor into a position of power or not, Australia is about to change for good and there is no going back.
Glen,
where does your “base” figure come from and why do you insist on believing that it’s correct?
Why will the actual Election be closer than the polls?
Its all relative, but even if the ALP sustains a national 2PP of 60:40 there is the issue of the gerrymander that has been built up over subsequent Federal Elections by virtue of the Liberals marginal seat campaigning, porkbarrelling and criminal postal and printing allowances to sitting members.
To actually win Government in its own right the ALP I believe from previous discussions has to achieve 51.4% of the TPP in a straight national swing.
However, the ALP and Unions have been working quite hard on a targeted marginal seat campaign and the number of “marginal seats” to defend is blowing out every day for the Coalition. So whose to say the ALP might actually reverse the trend and actually take more seats from the 2004 pendulum than its national 2PP vote?
What is interesting is the question of who is most likely to lead the Libs after the Election? With a 60:40 even Costello’s seat is in doubt. Whom does that leave amongst the rest?
A likely Lib leader pendulum would be great.
Jasmine the last time the Liberal Party at an election got anywhere near 34% was 1998 (Just an anti-GST vote) and before that 1983-1990
In 1996 Howard got 38.7% in 2001 Howard got 37.1% and in 2004 Howard got 40% thus 34% is between 6% and 3% lower than in previous elections…
How can you think that a poll that has the Nats on 1.5% is credible are you crazy!
Who will win the 2007 Australian Federal Election?
ALP
66.26%
Coalition
33.74%
Sporting Bet –
So maybe the coalitions support is lower, only 33.74%
I think the sample is a little on the left here. The Coalition numbers are made up of both (with the nats in brackets). The nats have consistantly got 2.5-3% for quite a while and now they have dropped to 1.5%.
The Greens have been polling 6.5%-7% have suddenly jumped to 9%.
I suspect that Morgan do some weighting when they produce these numbers. Eg if they end up with 40% men they will increase their vote and decrease the women’s vote so they are equivalent to 50/50.
They interview 915 people but I suspect 9% doesn’t mean 81 people said they would vote green. They might only get 40 people in country areas and weight their selections accordingly. I suspect they did a country area and hit Nimbin or somewhere increasing the green vote and dropping Nats.
I am not saying this poll is insignificant but such a sudden change in two minor parties seems unusual and suggests it may not be sustained.
Glen
Newspoll has gone from 55/45 to 59/41
Galaxy from 55/45 to 57/43
Morgan from 54.5/45.5 to 60/40
Stop embarrasing yourself
Glen,
Maybe you’d be better off directing some of that anger at the Party Leaders who put the Liberal Party in this position.
Stop fishing in the RW pond, there is only one fish left, and its got alot of hook marks.
.
Back to reality, this poll backs up newspoll as a true figure on the weekend, not the contrast that was between Galaxy and Morgan last week.
Still, complacency is poison. The electoral changes will disenfranchise hundreds of thousands, if anyone you know isn’t enrolled, get them a form! Labor never turns away campaign volunteers either
Glen: Bolt and Albrechtsen have aleady left the sinking ship.
Get on the lifeboats before its too late!
Asanque and to the rest of the Rudd huggers…is a poll that has the National Party on 1.5% credible?
More to the point, is the National Party credible? Think the poll answers that one!
Is a Prime Minister who thinks Work Choices will win him votes credible?
Glen, people have explained how that Nat/Liberal split works. It’s be done multiple times, in language simple enough that even you can understand.
A few months back someone was making an analogy between the coalition government and Hitler’s last days in his Berlin bunker and his delusional reliance upon phantom armies materialising out of thin air coming to save Berlin. Over the past year we have had a succession of pundits and the coalition brains trust (surely an oxymoron) touting the following as causes for the imminent turnaround that received wisdom knew had to be just around the corner:honeymoon over, budget bounce, Rudd stumble, APEC, people coming to their senses.
I think the polls of the last fortnight allow us to take that bunker analogy to the next stage. There must have come a moment in late April 1945 when Hitler realised it was all over and that his hope and belief in relief was in vain, when reality came rushing in overwhelming those delusions. That moment has arrived for the coalition. It is now dawning on them that there is no phantom army, no escape, no redemption, no TAMPA to reverse the tide. As somebody else said, what they face is a wipeout of biblical proportions.
“Asanque and to the rest of the Rudd huggers…is a poll that has the National Party on 1.5% credible?”
With Mark Vaille as leader – Yes
Oh Glen give it up please…
I have no doubt of the collapsing Nationals vote, although not to that extent of course. Why do you think they’re running on a joint ticket for the Senate in Queensland at this election? Certainly not because they’re confident their vote is high enough to get a Senator elected on their own.
Still, your desperate attempts to paint this poll as rogue take the cake. Is it really that important to you? You’ve said it’s rogue… you hardly need to stand around arguing about it.
Calling us “Rudd huggers” is also lame.
Stunkrat that might put the Nats between 3-4% but it sure as hell doesnt explain why Morgan has the Nats on 1.5% when they poll 6% nationally in elections…The Nats are credible they and the Liberals are the only parties who actually care about the Bush you can bet your bottom dollar if Rudd gets in he’ll snub the Bush like every Labor Prime Minister has done…
Glen, when I posted earlier in the week that two elderly rusted on conservatives had told me that they would vote for a conservative candidate in a conservative Rudd government, thus changing from lifetime Liberal voting you accused me of being a liar.
On these figures it would seem that many people who have never voted ALP federally are strongly considering doing so.
At the 2010 election, Eden Monaro will be a safe ALP seat.
Some things that will work against Costello and Turnbull if they are they are daft enough to take the poisoned chalice.
Most people don`t realise that the driving force behind serfchoices and founder of HR Niccholls society was Captain Smirk himself.He conned Howard into thinking it was nesessary reform,plonker!
Malcolm “feecatcher” Turnbull ex Goldman Sachs, old mate of Rodney Adler and “Project Firelight” partner, and the sale of F.I.A. to the terminally sick H.I.H. could come back and bite him on the bum in a dirty campaign
They will stick with Howard, unless he or Janet decides to pull the pin to ensure people like me miss out on a gloatfest on election night.
Re (5)’
“This confirms the last Newspoll of Labor leading 59-41 2PP.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; this wont be a close election – it will be a Ruddslide of biblical proportions.”
Therefore, it is time to think what might be an appropriate campaign song for Rudd. I put my vote in for A Long Way To The Top (which talks about seeking the Holy Grail). This was used very effectively by one of the television stations in a recent year for their advertising of the broadcast of the AFL finals series
. Anyone else with a different idea?
Oh Glen… you must’ve thrown that capital B in on the bush as a joke right?
Given the small sample you’d have to be inclided to combine this poll with the previous one and say morgan has the ALP at around 57 to 57.5. The recent Newspoll would fit in with this. This is a huge 2pp vote this close to an election.
Something to has break next week. Either Howard calls the election to change the tempo or resigns.
I think Howard will take the cowards way out. Costello as a new leader would seal defeat but may stop a landslide and enable them to live to fight the next election.
Here’s the entire mandarin part of Rudd’s speech from yesterday:
http://publish.vx.roo.com/australian/inarticlemini/?channel=The+Nation&clipid=1402_070906-hu-lunch&bitrate=300&format=flash
Stunkrat,
Morgan is assuming people will change the reasons behind the vote they told Morgan pollsters once the election is called. I don’t know where he gets that assumption (this is the first federal election I will have participated in). It is possible that historically, this has been so, that margins have narrowed when the election is officially called, but this election just doesn’t have that feeling to me. Like another poster, the margins I think will be the same or even greater.
I’m saving Glen’s desperate rationalisations to regurgitate to him after the election. It’s clear Rudd will win and win big. The tories just can’t bring themselves to accept it. All I ask is that Glen (and others) accept the result with dignity and respect.
Re (11)
” Whether Rudd squanders a golden opportunity to cement Labor into a position of power or not, Australia is about to change for good and there is no going back. ”
Can you see the rainbow on the horizon? 60% of the voters can
:)
Glen: The only question you need to ask, is which stage of the cycle you are at?
Is it stage 1 – denial (Shanahan)
stage 2 – bargaining (Albrechtsen)
stage 3 – depression
or stage 4 – acceptance (Bolt)
Is the Morgan poll a good indicator of the election? I doubt it will be 60%/40%, but its another good indicator of the deserved annihilation of the Howard government under his insipid leadership.
“In 1996 Howard got 38.7% in 2001 Howard got 37.1% and in 2004 Howard got 40% thus 34% is between 6% and 3% lower than in previous elections…”
Glen, you cannot deny the current figures by alluding to previous election results. To put it simply, people sometimes CHANGE their voting intention. It doesn’t matter how many votes Howard got back in 1996 or even in 2004, what we are seeing today is that a large number of people who once voted for Howard are now voting against him.
And while I have no doubt that the truly rusted-on Liberal supporters would be somewhere in the 30 to 40 percent range, I also suspect that quite a few people who were historically strong Liberal supporters have jumped ship. In fact, I have met quite a few people who are planning to vote Labor for the first time in their life. Why? Because they feel that the Liberal Party no longer represents them. They tend to be small-”l” Liberals with a social conscience. So, as the party has shifted to the hard right, especially over the past few years, and as Labor has moved back into the centre, their previous loyalty to the Liberal Party has gone. Labor have become VERY appealling to them.
So, yes, the Liberal Party has lost considerable support, even some previously rusted-on supporters. It might not be quite as bad as Morgan is currently suggesting, but its pretty bad.
Interesting report from The Australian –
“Corporations put money behind Labor”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22376843-11949,00.html
It’s just a whole world of pain, isn’t it Glen.
The Ruddians are at the Reichstag.
Howard’s down to a Heff and a few young libs with Panzerfausts.
Even Albrechtsen is crossing the Rhine.
Anthony Llewellyn, love your work but your accusations spurious to say the least.
If you want to talk gerrymander look at WA at a state level.
The other realty is that elections are not won on national uniform swings.
Labor will win this election and it won’t need the 51.4% you suggest.
Labor will win it with the following;
NT – one seat with a 2.8% swing
WA – two seats within a 2.0% swing
SA – three seats within a 0.9% swing
NSW – one seat with a 0.8% swing, one seat with a 2.9% swing, one seat with a 3.3% swing and one seat with a 4.8% swing
Qld – one seat with a 0.6% swing, one seat with a 2.8% swing and one seat with 5.7% swing
Vic – none seats (they got them all at the last two elections)
Tas – one seat with a 1.1% swing and one seat with a 2.6% swing.
Don’t get misguided by national uniform swings. Look at the history of federal elections by state.
Keats ill accept the result whoever wins the election be it Rudd or Howard…that doesnt mean i have to like it if Howard doesnt win…
And Asanque im go through each 4 stages every day when i have to keep looking at polls like this…
I think some perspective should be kept on this poll. It is only 919 people. The last Morgan poll was 1212. Probably a more realistic figure is between these two polls – about 57%TPPm – still enough for a landslide.
WTF
You all are popping champagne bottles over a poll of just 919 people and that puts the Coalition vote down 6.5% for no apparent reason and one that undervalues the National Party vote at just 1.5%…you guys need to take a cold shower and now!
@ 14 Glen
It’s moved Glen, that’s why they call it a swing.
It used to be over there and now its over here.
Do try to keep up.
Glen. For once I agree. The Nat vote is too low. I have heard before that Morgan has been accused of a city bias.
Even if this is true, it’s disaster time. What in essence Morgan may be highlighting is the poll disparity in urban areas–ie, where most of the seats are.
Ruddslide in suburbia.
Howard will stay on and fight this election, I believe the key will be preference flows. The Coalition and Labor know Family first could hold the keys to this election.
The family first vote has been hugely underestimated in these pre-polling, on achieving around 2% of the vote in the Morgan poll – yet at the last Queensland state election they sealed about 7% of the vote and 4.98% in the south Australian Legislative Council in 2006. Every Election family first fight there primary vote has increased. They run a very clever campaign, running candidate in every seat and they have the ability to man every polling station.
I think if family first votes hold around 5% in Queensland and SA, they will indirectly help save marginal seats for the coalition. I’m predicting a Howard-Costello victory with a loss of 6-8 seats. I don’t believe this poll to be reliable, it is under-quoting a lot of parties…
Glen, look at the Newspoll and Galaxy trends, and again, stop embarrassing yourself.
This is presidential politics. It is a binary choice – the red candidate or the blue candidate: you have to take your pick from these two or wait until the next election. They are the rules and you must play by them.
The first problem for blue man is his negative ratings so clearly outrank his positive ratings. Even though he does still have some positives, the margin is too big to turn around in a short space of time. As well, the positives register quite weakly, while the negatives are very strongly etched. The existing blue character is known inside and out by the market and is basically worn out. He needs a huge makeover.
On the other hand, while the red man scores some negatives, his positives are very strong. They overwhelm the negative perceptions, which in any case do not resonate strongly. These rankings are not going to be reversed in the space of a few weeks. If anything they will be extended in the scrutiny of a campaign.
The other problem for the blue man is that every time he’s tried to re-distinguish himself – to reinvent himself – he has moved away from his remaining positives: from the strengths of incumbency. He makes himself look impulsive, clutching and unstable.
By contrast, the red man is still a work in progress, which means his characteristics can be tested and honed and trimmed without compromising their inherent features. It is a subtle creation and a born front-runner.
The blue man is really in a bind. He cannot offer more of the same andhope to win. And yet he cannot change his identifying qualities.
He might as well quit now.
Andrew my main argument that this poll is rogue is that the Nat vote is 1.5% how on earth could you think its a credible poll…you and the Rudd Huggers are embarrassing themselves by thinking this poll is credible…i’ve never said the Coalition is not so far behind because they are but that doesnt mean that this poll is credible…
What Morgan does not provide is the State-by-State breakdown. If he did it would show Queensland swinging back big time to the ALP. Their campaign team are targetting not only the marginal coalition seats of Blair(5.7), Moreton(2.8) and Bonner (0.6) but are increasingly confident of Dickson ( Kernot’s old seat and at 9.1) held by that very ordinary Minister Peter Dutton, Bowman(8.9) previously an ALP seat, Leichhardt(10.3) which looses Warren Enstch,with a huge personal vote especially from the Torres Strait island voters, along with Herbert(6.1), Longman(6.6) and Petrie(6.6). It will be a Ruddbath in Queensland.
As I have previously noted, the odds are shortening that Howard will pull the plug next weekj. No one knows for sure what he will do, but the story of Howard considering his position( as distinct from columns from pleading accolytes) will run in the mainstrem media over the next 48 hours. If it hasn’t got steam up by Monday, that will change with Neilsen which will reflect every other poll showing movement to the ALP.
So just out of curiosity.
A federal house of representatives with 123 Labor seats, 25 Liberal seats and a couple of independents.
This is what you people are so happy about?
If Rudd is going to win – which he will should Howard remain at the helm – then I would very much want him to win decisively, with, say 90 odd seats. This will be enough to ensure no one minority group (notably the unions) can claim credit for his victory. I want him to claim his mandate, so that he can make his own mark and not have others to blame three years later. The people have spoken, fair enough, so let’s see what he does with it – without being held back. It also keeps him accountable; under the knowledge the 2010 election is still an open ballgame.
But 123 seats? That would be devastating. It would do two things:
- Ensure a two-term Labor government is basically guaranteed. Very few circumstances would lead to a 9% swing against a one-term old government (unless Julia stages a coup…?) I digress. This would NOT be a good thing, six years of power without proper checks is not good for any democratic government. See the past two years of Howard with the Senate for your evidence
- Ensure that the following election, anywhere from 20-50 seats will change hands again, when the Coalition inevitably gets a swing towards it (which it will) – again, this is not good for stable democracy, having a bunch of MP’s who are there and know they will be there for a single term. The beauty of our system, for all its faults, is it generally gives us some stability. 60-40 would shake that up. I’m not convinced it would be for the better.
glen it is widely accepted I think that Morgan overestimates Labor’s 2PP. The importance of this poll is that it continues the TREND of the two other major polls of a large recent shift to Labor. But you keep clinging to your “the Nats vote is too low” argument, because it’s about the only straw youve got left to clutch
Oops forgot my source – I plugged the 60-40 data into Bryan’s calculator, and made a couple of estimates. Not sure if other calculators would get a similar result, I imagine they would…?
I think I hear the bells tolling.
With polling this bad, the media has a LOT to write about, which feeds public perception, at which point a sizeable number of voters (and apparently the business community) may jump on the perceived winner’s wagon. I’d say it is game over for the Coalition.
Jas
Your comments about potential leadership change in government and treasurer are intriguing. Your assertion that Downer or Abbott are inappropriately experienced/incapable of the portfolio suggest a couple of logical extensions:
a) That Costello is actually alright at the job
b) That Swan would be no better (no more experience than Downer nor Abbott and hasn’t carried a Federal Portfolio)
c) Looks like we get Swan (based on the current polling)
d) He’d better get as good as Costello quickly!
I think Rudd could hold his own Internationally, in a way that perhaps Beazley and DEFINITELY Latham could not. I just hope the rest of the team rises to the challenge.
On these figures… I wonder if the coalition will lose ground on the senate vote to the point where a double-dissolution is not required?
“Rudd huggers?” What next Glen, “Howard Haters?”
Looks like the rust is falling off the Coalition. Time to strip it right back, cut out the worst bits of rust and start again. Or perhaps we could go buy a brand new car.
The Nationals has been having an identity crisis for years – do they support the bush, or do they support the big end of town. It’s getting worse the longer they’re a minor party within the coalition. Every so often we hear different states talking about the coalition merging and that, but the redneck bushies don’t like the city yuppies. It gets worse when a Nat resigns and the Libs put in their own person causing a 3-way contest. The Nats seem to lose out. At times the Nat policies are in direct contrast to the Lib policies, but the Nats have been too weak to stand up and say ‘we will remove our support if you don’t do as we say’. So no wonder their vote is so low, they may have a few seats that are heartland but they’re totally irrelevant for the rest of Australia
It is great that all us comrades think that this Election win by Kev is going to be the biggest thing since we all sat around the tree and formed the party… but you are misguided.
Alpal, a 9.1% swing in Qld to win the seat of Dickson has never happen.
Let’s try and keep things in perspective. The polls show a trend and that is it. Not a result
On another note, let’s hope the “right” always stay in control of our party because god help us if the left dominates again. I don’t want the Whitlam years (for those of us that can remember) to ever happen again.
Bryan may have to update his calculator, only goes to 60-40.
Given that last election The Nats won 12 seats with 5.8% of the vote, could we expect a coaltion if they hold almost as many seats as the Libs?
This Poll has the nats primary vote to low and Family first primary vote to low, and the green vote is overestimated by about 2-3 percent
It does show a trend to labor but this could involve just reclaiming some of there ground in safe labor territories after the devastation of Latham…
Max I doubt anyone is seriously predicting a 60-40 TPP. Even 54-46 seems too big an ask, 53-47 is more possible and 52-48 even better. Of course there have been big election victories in the past… no reason there can’t be another.
The Howard Government definately deserves to be punished for what they’ve done to the Senate alone.
Democracy tends to repair itself, the parties that lose big have to learn their lessons. The South Australian ALP were reduced to 10 seats in the early 1990s when there was a close to 60-40 TPP… they bounced back from that of course… but had to learn their lessons.
There are about 10 “safe”national seats in the the country. there’s no way they will not get >>50% in each of these. thus the total vote for them is a minimum 10/150 `*50%, ~ 3.5%. thus 1.5 % is much too low.. but so what glen? The “normalising” process will always throw up glitches likes this ( & could eg reverse the process for the LIBs).
Even if the coalition primary vote is underestimated by 3%, it is stll less than 40%!
if I were you I’d hang my hat on the FACT ( as our taxpayer funded ads would put it) that except for tragics like me &you, the electorate doesn’t give a rats about polls. They only reallly concentrate when the pencil is 1cm from the ballot paper, if even then.
So if I were you, I ‘d hope that the parents with 2.5 children, and mortgage payments that Go up by 10% of their take home pay every time Costelloe gives a smirk.. these folks will forget that thanks to Work Choices even the pay is at the mercy of a hopefully benevolent boss..will think that Howard, or Costelloe, or whoever is too nice a guy
to kick out.
Trouble is that even then, some of them might worry that by the time the 2.5 kids have 2.5 of their own, the won’t have any air to breathe.
.. somehow, though, I don’t think that’s much of a hook for a hat
Looking back it is interesting to see how polls predicted the Nats vote in past elections. In the past two they have polled 6% here is how the major polsters called it leading up to both elections
Morgan
2 1.5 2 2.5 2.5 2 3 4
2.5 1.5 2.5 3 2 2.5 4 4
Newspoll
7 3 5 3 4 5 5 5
3 4 3 4 3 4 4 4
An ever better figure is Morgan’s figure on ACTUAL intention rather than 2004 distribution of preferences, its 60.5/39.5. I know its pie in the sky but so good to see L-NP in the 30s 2PP!!!
DLP…
You do of course know that Whitlam was a right-winger…who smashed the Left’s control of the Party in Victoria…and opposed the Left’s Joe Chamberlain over State Aid and other issues…dragging the PArty to the electable Centre over a five-year period…???
Just sayin’.
I don’t understand why people like Glen are calling this a ‘Rogue’ poll. Hasn’t every poll in the last cycle shown a movement of 2-5 per cent to Labour?
That would make this the opposite of a rogue poll. It would mean that the poll is confirming the trend.
I don’t care if Glen ‘barracks’ for his candidate, but when every poll for the last year shows Labour in front on a 2PP basis, and sometimes by up to 20 points, its foolish not to acknowledge that there is a huge swing in the community.
It’s not the expectation that these numbers will transalate that is making people giddy, it’s the knowledge that the arrogant buggers on the Coalition side are scared to death about it – just look at Downer’s toddleresque pouting. After 11 years of that incompetent, silver-spoon-chewing moron, I’m not surprised that people are enjoying watching them panic!
Glen me ole china, just one word to take note of (or to be pedantic – as Julie Bishop would demand, “of which to take notice”) in triplicate ‘Trend, trend, trend.’
I have to agree with Glen here. While the poll apparently confirms the Newspoll/Galaxy results of a Rudd 2PP somewhere in the high 50s, the extremely low Coalition and National primaries have got to indicate that something is wrong with the figures. Why would the Coalition primary have dropped 6.5% – that’s about 850000 voters – over a couple of weeks? It doesn’t make sense. It’s another good poll for Rudd, but clearly something is wrong with it.
Could we bring back the intelligent analysis that there used to be in this site’s comments, instead of just attacking someone who dares to question a poorly-thought-through orthodoxy?
optimist, youre spot on, no-one believes the election will be anywhere near 60/40 (I think even 53/47 would be sensational, but will take an ALP win by a seat!)
triangulum – good point
Barney (#25) I don’t subscribe to the bunker analogy.
To me what is happening is more akin to Romania 1989.
I am savouring the demise of John and Janette Ceausescu, facing the firing squad and all the while screaming about how ungrateful we are.
DLP
You are wrong about Dickson. The current polling averages shows a swing to the ALP of over 10 per cent. Dickson will go to preferences. Last election Family first polled 4.5 per cent. This time that vote will end up with Rudd. It will be close, and Dutton may hang on – but my point is, the seat is an ALP target. They are spending time and money on it – and they dont throw money away on lost causes when every vote counts.
The Chaser should run a Senate team as the Comedy First Party. I’m sure they could pick up the seats the Democrats will lose. The whole APEC circus may have unforseen consequences for Sydney marginals. Still too early for Maxine to pack her bags for Canberra but one more glowing endorsement of Howard by George W should do the trick.
We outlanders grow more bemused by the day.
“Labor View from Broome’ http://laborview.blogspot.com/
Glen
The Nats polling is easily explained in this poll. Less than 1000 people (granted, though, it was FTF) and Nats polling has been hovering around 5% anyway. The Nats are just suffering from the same problem that we face when we take Senate polls with minor parties: When dealing with small samples and minor parties, there are likely to be big shifts.
Greens held more primaries than Nats on the last election and their results have been between 2-9% over the last two years for P & FTF, so this variance is expected.
What I have noticed though is that since mid 2006 when Climate Change hit the national consciousness, the Greens have not seen a poll much above 9% since 2004 (the highest, I believe was Morgan Nov 2006 at 9.5%) and a fairly consistent aggregate trend shows then likely around 5.5% in November. Admittedly, polls do seem to underestimate Greens prior to elections. Ther graphs are here:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/category/aggregated-polls/
It does seem apparent that some ALP growth has been at the expense of the Greens, though there must be wide tranches of interest won from soft Coalition supporters to gain this kind of divide.
I just think that it makes the Greens far less relevant to the ALP this election and they may have some woes of their own even levelling their performance of 2004.
If the Environmental message, which is only one part of a much larger platform for the Greens, is diluted too much, then they may face some soul-searching as the Dems did about 6 years ago..
This is Rudd’s response:
我对民æ„测验是éžå¸¸å–œæ‚¦çš„但我ä¸è®¡æ•°æˆ‘的鸡。
Fulvio (68),
I believe that is what Hitler also proclaimed: that the German people weren’t worthy of him.
But hey i’m not fussy. Happy to defer to your Caucescu analogy. Same outcome and that’s the main thing.
i cant see Howard calling the election next week, he’s got the Canadian PM.addressing parliament hasnt he? he certainly couldnt drag his heels after that, Downer on the front page of the OZ assures us Howard is going to fight it out, i guess he’d know, anyway changing to Costello will leave them in such a disarray that Rudd’s margin would blow out even bigger.
Re post 52: Max
While I agree that a complete decimation of the Coalition will not be such a good thing for democracy from a theoretical standpoint, the triumphalist bollocks we on the Left of politics have had to put-up with from this bunch of ratbags for the last 11 years has stuck in my craw.
I’m sick to death of being labelled a “bleeding heart”, anti-American, “un-Australian”, a terrorist sympathyser (and worse), all because I didn’t happen to agree with whatever policy or wedge John Howard was spruiking at the time. From refugees to Iraq to IR, the response was always the same: “Oh, you’re only saying this because you are a (insert insult) Leftie.” I want to see the end of the sort of bombast and bullshit that passed for political debate under Howard.
I want to see him and his loathesome cadre of NeoCons annhilated.
Perhaps if the Libs are reduced to a rump of 25 or 30 seats they’ll do some hard thinking about how they’ve managed to get themselves into such a pathetic position and finally make the hard decisions necessary to remake the Liberal Party as a true liberal party and not an Aussie version of the US Republicans.
One can only hope.
dont agree Swampy, a change to Costello would help the Coalition, remember even Downer had a honeymoon as leader
“The Nats polling is easily explained in this poll. Less than 1000 people …”
Back in the good old days of Joh Gerrymander, those 1000 people would have been a whole, personally and creatively selected “game over, move on” electorate.
Glen, as is always mentioned when a Morgan poll is released, the majority of National voters answer Liberal to these polls as they are unsure of the National candidates in their electorate and often merge the two parties together. Large MOE as well.
Looking at the figures, the National vote seems to go to the Greens. HAHAHAHA! Is there ever anymore diametrically opposite parties than those two?
Triangulum:
“Could we bring back the intelligent analysis that there used to be in this site’s comments, instead of just attacking someone who dares to question a poorly-thought-through orthodoxy?”
Thankyou Triangulum. This site is going downhill fast.
It’s like a bully boy teen fan club.
In between attacking perfectly reasonable comments, there’s a ridiculous amount of gloating (and the gloating is not even intelligent or witty).
It’s becoming quite lame.
Glen
Hang in there, lad, like the boy on the burning deck. The thoughts you are voicing are familiar to us from 11 years of practice, from the other side of the fence. While the fat lady has yet to get her tonsils into gear, it doesn’t look good for Howard’s neo-con cohort. It does look like the real conservatives in the electorate have finally realised that the real conservative party in Oz is the ALP. Under Howard the Liberal party has become a thuggish, autocratic right wing putsch. The sad thing is that it’s taken them 11 years of. untold damage to the Australian psyche and self-image to work it out.
If you are a real conservative you would actually be celebrating what’s happening.
Max
A cleansing is what the liberal party needs and it will be good for it, it has happened to ther parties and they have survived and come out the better for it.
A landslide result will see a firm rejection of the arrogance and aloofness of the liberals of today.
Jas
Reading Crosby Textor it looks like they are predicting a %11 swing in WA, so Canning could quite possibly be a gain.
DLP @ #58. I am forever grateful to the Whitlam government. My husband, sister and her husband were all beneficiaries of Whitlam’s free tertiary education. We were from overseas but the 4 of us stayed on in this country and paid back in the form of taxes and more. Whitlam is our hero.
Honeymoons get cancelled when you’ve got a funeral to go to.
Re (52),
” If it hasn’t got steam up by Monday, that will change with Neilsen which will reflect every other poll showing movement to the ALP.”
Does anyone know what time the Neilsen comes out on Monday? The Libs have a party meeting on Monday. Don’t know whether not that has been scheduled for some time or if it was put on the agenda recently ;-D. Wondering if Neilsen will come out prior to their meeting which if memory serves is at 10am.
OK firstly the low national polling. Lets get over that they are a joke and 1.5% would be appropriate, but lets not get over that a proportion of the nat vote is a liberal vote on a ballot without a liberal candidate.
I’m sure who but someone with more stats knowledge them me has pointed out this bleeding obvious thing many times. And how much press has the Nats leader and party had recently; they should be glad they are polling 1.5% surely with AWB they don’t deserve that. They get a massive boom during the election where they pretend they still matter and aren’t just a dagg on the Liberal machine.
ifonlys numbers seem consistent with this explanation, assuming the nationals growth is predominantly at the cost of the libs; with little impact on the tpp numbers. Perhaps someone smart has done this already.
You maybe right I may be crazy, but it just might be a lunatic Fonzie’s looking for. But onto the article of faith you express that Howard has to be doing better than this poll because he has in the past.
Now I accept fully there could be either a massive swing over the election campaign, and theorethically we could find people have just being lying to the pollsters. Both are possible.
But for more than a year I’ve watched ozpolitics and here and the vast majority of people ’sure’ that things would tighten up. With the exception of the Howard mini-revival polls over July and August almost every poll was greeted with oh we need to watch the next two or three before we believe it is real. Not long after Bryan’s calculator went up, I started asking why people weren’t talking of destruction and frankly the PM himself got the possibility well before many saw it as even a possibility.
Now over this time there have been many theories about why it would tighten-up, and maybe it did a tiny bit in July and August but largely in essence it hasn’t at all. Flat-line. And the only question really is where the flat-line is at; and 56-57 tpp to labor would seem as good a guess as any; and frankly a much much better guess than 52 – 53.
Of course things could move but after more than a year of believing this with it never happening you should at least be contemplating 56 – 57 now. Yes a historic win. Yes probably bad for democracy, but unless something new and amazing happens it seems to be the only probabl result. Kevin would have to lose the campaign badly and be VERY unhappy if he only gets 55% tpp, which is more or less roughly the low water mark of the polling for more than 9 months. 60% would be amazing and I don’t expect it, but frankly with nine months of polling it would be less amazing than a close election. If this is close from here either Rudd has malfunctioned (and yes the robot analogy is deliberate) or Howard has created a genuine miracle. And I’m talking a close loss for him, not a win.
Again because you’ll say hubris and arrogance, I know it hasn’t happened yet and may not, but the illogical ‘faith based’ position is now a narrow loss. A landslide is conservative, a massive landslide is reasonable, somewhere in the middle is probable.
The good thing for democracy will be if the Libs have a knock-down, drag-out fight amongst themselves for a while and decide if they want to be the party of Menzies or the party of nasty little insects like Alex Hawke (frmoer NSW young libs leader and candidate for the truly safe seat of Mitchell) – Labor has had to do soul searching of its own over the years and ultimately its a good thing.
Libs should clean house and figure out what they really believe in – Petro Giorgiou for leader i say.
Agree with Triangulam and Greg. As much I would like to see Labor win, please don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. Also, it’s not a fair fight as there are too few like Glen here. We don’t want him to leave.
can someone explain to me the margin of error. everyone says well with moe it is 56/43 why could it not mean 63/37 .im curious and a novice but am i missing something in the way polls work?
Julie,
I’m sure the libs will have the Nielsen numbers in time for the meeting – what a meeting it will be….oh to be a fly on the wall.
Ha the ALP soul searching…all they’ve done is say they support all our economic policies how is that soul searching???
All they’ve done is put a dodgy new paint job over their party with a leader who is beloved by the media…it doesnt change the fact that the ALP is run by the trade union movement and it doesnt change the fact that they cannot be trusted with running the economy…
I also don’t think much of Morgan and his polls, I also doubt that the swing is really this high, and I also doubt that the Nats vote is really that low. But this is all quibbling about whether the Titanic will sink at 1am or 2am. The fact is that it is clearly sinking, and I really don’t see how anyone can deny this and expect to be taken seriously. On all historical experience, this government is heading for defeat. It really makes no difference whether Labor wins 20 seats or 40 seats, Howard will still be gone and will remembered as the man who wrecked his own legacy through vanity and hubris.
But if the polls are anything to go by at the moment Rooster Swan will have to run our 1 trillion dollar economy and id like to see him to a better job than Mr Costello…say what you will about ‘deputy dawg’ but at least he’s got a great track record as Treasurer….
L, I hate to break it to you but Whitlam was not on the right of the Party.
Do you recall his run ins with Calwell? Do recall the split of the party in the mid 50’s and EGW’s position.
I can draw from various journals but I am happy to agree to disagree.
Alpal, regarding Dickson, if you think history is going to be made then I am happy to take your money off you in October.
Arbie, how did you get the wa pages from the report, the ones I downloaded didn’t have WA? Leaving WA out because it was bad, is a very different story to leaving it out because it was good?
We are not counting chickens we are extrapolating (I use that in a non-statistical sense please don’t remind me it is statistically silly to do) a pretty clear 9 month pattern to speculate about a likely outcome.
Brilliant point libsrok; I wish I had made it
. Not only are many of the polls rogue, but they are always top of margin of error and never ever bottom of it. Frankly at 60% I’m happy for it to be in the middle of the margin of error 
For those that subscribe to the theory that the election will be close, can you answer these questions for me…
1. Are there any precedents here for the current situation of an opposition being so far in front (ie at least 57-43 2PP) so close to an election (ie probably 6-10 weeks away)?
2. If there is a precedent to 1. then on what logical basis are you relying on that what happened then will necessarily mean it will happen now?
I haven’t got the data in front of me and please correct me if I’m wrong, but off the top of my head I can’t recall an opposition having this sort of lead so close to an election.
Howard was behind in 2001 2 months out from the election, but not by this margin and the extraordinary events of Sep 11, Tampa and “children overboard” aided his cause.
Similarly Keating was behind Hewson in 1993 at the same time in the electoral cycle, but again, by nowhere near the margin Howard is behind Rudd.
And finally, why is it necessarily so that Howard must make ground in the election campaign proper?
My thesis here is that we are in extraordinary uncharted political waters here (witness Rudd’s all time record poll results) and therefore should expect extraordinary results.
Glen, if you think this poll is wrong because of the Nat vote, then any poll showing the Greens below 5% are also wrong. But the Greens often get this and score higher, as do the Nats.
Find another excuse, this one is getting very old.
Grooski
I think you were being ironic when you stated:
“Looking at the figures, the National vote seems to go to the Greens. HAHAHAHA! Is there ever anymore diametrically opposite parties than those two?”
Given the same problems with “small prevalence in small samples” the variance expected could render almost no difference between these parties in the long term. In fact, given the history of National polling trending under actual voting primaries and Greens generally being over-estimated, it may well be that the true picture on the day may have them quite close.
If the ALP does win this election, however, it may allow the Nats to re-group and exert more power in the coalition in the event of a vacuum. Again, the relevance of the Greens, so important from 1996-2006 to the ALP, may decline if the landslide is indeed that strong.
Asanque
I think Glen is at Stage 5
stage 1 – denial (Shanahan)
stage 2 – bargaining (Albrechtsen)
stage 3 – depression (Abbott)
stage 4 – acceptance (Bolt)
stage 5 – hysteria (Downer)
stage 6 – zombie
All whose policies Glen?
I do hope you’re not wasting taxpayer money right now.
Same old tired lines – they haven’t worked up until now, and that ain’t changing Glen.
Beloved by the media?
Would that be by Dennis Shanahan, Janet Albrechtsen, Piers Ackerman, Andrew Bolt, Paul Kelly…and the rest of the “Rudd Huggers”…..boy, you sure are clutchin at straws aren’t ya?
Run by the unions, can’t be trusted…….hey Glen, I’ve got an idea for ya – how about you organise a billboard campaign along the lines of the Latham L-plates one….only this time its Rudd rated “R”….y’know because of the strip club bit your mate Downer thought would bring him Down…..you guys are getting more shrill and desperate by the minute.
some of the huge swing to labor has to be a correction of the Latham effect from the last election then the Rudd effect comes in after that.
Glen
you should check history – go look at some of Keating’s word pre the 96 election.
They sound the same as yours.
The country will not fall over, no matter who wins. The things that will have most effect on our economy will be decided upon away from our shores.
The unions do not run the ALP – why are the state ALP governments constantly at loggerheads with the public service unions and their pay claims, if they are indeed being run by these same unions?
Your arguments are facile and really do not stand up to any scrutiny.
BigBob – well said.
It’s such a tired argument that wastes time which could be spent looking at ….well, reality.
Glen
I realise that what you say is the current Liberal Party line, but it is one of the reasons why they are behind.
People do not want negatives, a majority seem to be saying they are happy with Labor.
The Liberals need to release some real policies, policies that will make people regain confidence in them. Do something real in health, education, infrastructure. Give people some hope in the future, acknowledge that people are doing it tough in many places, understand that not all are feeling prosperous.
In other words stop saying what Labor will do, start saying what they will do.
Check out possum’s latest magnum opus
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/capitulation/
Swampy is quite correct – the punters wanted to get rid of Howard last time, but they were spooked by L*th*m, for which they are not to be blamed. But now the tidal wave against Howard will be all the greater for having been pent up for three more years. The analogy here is the UK in 1992 and 1997. They were sick of the Tories in 92, but didn’t like Kinnock, so Major had a surprise win. So by 2007 they were set up for a massacre, which duly occured. Admittedly Howard hasn’t had the policy disasters that Major had, but the analogy is still strong.
Julie way back when… Nielsen is commissioned by the SMH, and usually comes out in their Monday editions. It gets uploaded on-line about 1am Sunday night… pop in here then for some more hubris, gloating, shallow triumphalism and Glen-baiting 8). *
*blog irony
Tell me how Newspoll has the Greens on 3% and Morgan at 9%…
When is the next Galaxy poll due?
If Nielsen has Labor at 56 or above I think Howard will be just about cooked. The question then will be whether Costello, Downer, Turnbull or Abbott is willing to stick the fork in him. I still doubt it, but these are uncharted waters.
Next Galaxy is 24/9 I believe.
Adam, you sound like the ground has shifted since your comments this morning. Surely it can’t be a knifing… too messy. Howard has to orchestrate it and step aside…?
Howard might get cooked, can anyone honestly say that Downer, Abbot, or Costello wouldnt get cremated?
Jas
The swing in WA is on page 11 of part 1 of the report, where there is a summary of swings overall.
It is a bit hard to interpret and I asked Possum about it as it has swing since 2004 as 4% and swing since Beasley as 11%, Possum interpreted this as a swing of around 4.5% in WA, whereas I thought it could mean atotal swing of 11%.
Said to Possum I would ring Crosby to get the correct interpretation, rang a couple of times this sarvo but all I heard was 60 -40, no no it can’t be and much crying before they hung up.
ruawake
I agree with you there on policy and the Coalition…
Now granted the 10b Murray Darling Water Plan has been stalled thanks to the Victorian Labor Party which denied Howard some positive press…but a part from that and i know the Libs have put money into endowment funds and the intervention in the NT which is very smart and good policy but bad politics because they are not really vote winners i mean saying you’re going to put money into funds isnt going to win you votes you’ve got to offer them something and Howard and the Coalition have been virtually devoid of any major policy and been too negative…sure its all well and good to say Labor are inexperienced and cant manage money sure that may be true but you’ve got to start making policy and its even more important for a government of 11 years to do this lest they be viewed as old and tired and old and tired is the current perception hence 60/40.
@ 102 Generic Oracle Says:
The Nats are likely to be much closer in numbers to the Liberals aren’t they? So their influence seems likely to increase.
Is there any chance they could be the senior partner in the coalition? It’s probably not a likely out come, but could it happen.
The Greens could end up with more Senate power could they not? If there is a double dissolution in 2009 or ‘10 OR if the Greens win the second senate seat in the ACT. I read this possibility floated somewhere (perhaps here?) is there any chance?
On balance I still think neither hara-kiri nor a knifng on the steps of the Senate (et tu, Malcolm?) is likely. But the prospect of an electoral wipeout does change things rapidly. The chemistry in Parly House next week will be crucial. If the ‘benchers are in a panic, who knows what might happen?
Glen
Labour doesn’t ignore the bush. When the bush has been in trouble with drought or whatever disaster (usually self inflicted) befalls them they have been bailed out as always by whichever party is in power. They just ignore labour even when they are bailed out by them because of their backward outlook on the modern world.
The Bush lobby has always been effective at socialising the losses and privatising the profits. It is the unspoken agenda of the NFF.
Anyway, the nationals showing at 1.5% is no surprise because their vote has been leaking away to the liberals for years. I am surprised it’s that low but even if it doubled to 3%, so what. You are also failing to take into account the greening of coastal rural seats of the years IE Richmond (I believe this was Doug Anthony’s seat).
Max (52) you fret unnecessarily.
1. Rudd is conservative by instinct and methodology.
2. Witness recent long term Labor governments at State level: how many have done anything radical in policy? (Yes, I appreciate that policy checks are not the only rationale for strong oppositions: there’s also accountability of individual executive departments/ministers)
3. Howard has shifted many agendas significantly to the right. In many instances those shifts are entrenched, and Labor will either follow them or merely tinker at the edges. In others, however, it is entirely legitimate that a new government have the power to redraw the rules.
4. Labor will nowhere near control the Senate, however big the swing.
5. A new government is guaranteed 2 terms unless it is utterly helpless: it’s not a question of the size of its majority. If anything, a big Labor majority in ‘07 will at least allow the next Liberal team the boost of a swing back to it in ‘10.
I very much agree with the sentiments of Sideline Eye. It is about time that people who argue that these numbers are not feasible justify that view other than it not ever happened before. We have had the same glib predictions all year on the polls and they have been wrong. The problem such pundits have now is that whatever way you look at it, something historical is going to happen. Either we will have a historical landslide to Labor or a historically effective campaign by the Liberals. I know which I expect.
Morgan’s attempt to give theories that the electorate will just focus on interest rates and tax cuts during the campaign is just pathetic. People have been saying that all year and it has not happened, why will it happen over the next month? In fact, is it possible that Morgan did not accept the last poll’s closer (but out of line) findings, which is why he took another poll so quickly?
Surely even the most panicked back bencher knows that all of the alternative leaders are LESS popular PPMs than Howard?
Besides, changing horses in the final stride before the jump? That trick never works.
The last 30 polls (mid-May till today) show
ALP 48 L/NP 38.3 Others 13.7
Broken down into sets of 10 polls it indicates that the Others vote has remained the same and the ALP and the Coalition have swapped votes between themselves.
1st 10 polls ALP 48.1 L/NP 38.2 Others 13.7
2nd 10 polls ALP 47.5 L/NP 38.8 Others 13.7
3rd 10 polls ALP 48.3 L/NP 38.0 Others 13.7
This last set of 10 polls (Aug-Sept) would translate into a two party vote of 56.3/43.7 with a 58% preference flow to the ALP. That’s a 9% swing.
On Howard, I think Keating is right, he doesn’t lack courage. My guess he will hang on and I can’t see him stepping aside for anyone. I think this ‘eye on history’ he is supposed to have is rubbish.
Thanks Crispy.
If these numbers are anywhere near being correct it’s going to be very hard for the Libs in the Senate not to give Rudd what he wants as they’ll be terrified of a Double Dissolution. If the Libs get slaughtered this year what future leader will want to go up against Rudd in a DD on an issue like retaining Howards Work Choices legislation.
Good point Arbie, are you and Possum suggesting that page/slide 11 means that Beazley, according to CrosbyTextor polling had actually lost ground from the 2004 Latham result, in the 18-24 years category (6.1%)and WA (6.5%) and even slipped a bit in Tas/NT (0.9%)? Am I crazy or does the swing since beazley being greater than the swing since 04 have another meaning?
I was in the bomber would have won anyway camp, but this makes that theory look pretty dumb?
of course this poll probably understates the nat party vote but does
not understate the total coalition vote. even if 60/40 is wrong by 5% this
is a landslide.
what happens if things do not change and labor MAKES UP ground
during the election campaign?
Jaz
That is what Poss said, it looked a little strange, I will have to have a closer look.
Well possum is the smart one, I’m happy if I can count to two and be sure I have both legs of my stockings intact, and one for each leg.
I’d put money on John Howard offering to resign at the first party room meeting, even more so if the Nielsen poll follows this kind of pattern.
The only way he would not resign is if the poll was an outlier at 53-47 or possibly 54-46. If it is 55-45 or worse for the Coalition then I would put any money on his resignation offer.
It doesn’t mean that they would accept it of course, but I bet they would.
John Howard would then attempt to annoint Peter Costello as his natural heir and I would expect Malcolm Turnbull to also contest.
I would doubt if there would be any other person putting up their hand, not even Julie Bishop! She may be deputy though.
You can guarantee their are counting the numbers over the weekend.
The phones will run red hot.
Labor party supporters can pray for a rogue Nielsen poll!
There is no swing.
The poeple led by John Howard will triumph.
Rudd will surrender, it is Rudd who will surrender.
Everything is just fine.
Jas at 129 – that’s right, the C/T documents suggest the Bomber had lost ground in WA since the 2004 election.
It’s a bit weird this one as it doesnt even come close to matching up with the quarterly newspoll data for WA.All the other states in Oz Track 33 match with the newspoll data, but WA is out there in a different world.
Believe it or not, I’m actually going to agree with Glen.
The National Party will get a higher vote than 1.5%, and hold on to most of their seats.
It’s the Liberals who are headed for a bloodbath.
While Howard is by no means a coward…he’s a man of his words as George W Bush says and if his Party thinks he’s the problem he’ll stand aside…but i think they’ll stick by Howard in the end…and hope for General Wenck to come to the rescue…
If anyone wants a laugh, check this out:
“I CAN SPEAK FRENCH: Downer”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22379129-29277,00.html
“I did the French language course and Mr Rudd did the Chinese language course. I did mine in two months and he did his in two years, that could say something him and me or something about the two languages. I think the former but that sounds a tad partisan.”
What a grub, he is out there point scoring even in the middle of APEC. Doesn’t he have more important things to worry about?
In other news, Downer says he intends to greet the Chinese President in French.
Thanks Possum it also goes a long way to explaining the Libs have held onto the gains in WA theory for so long. The powers that be leaked how badly Labor was doing under Beazley in WA, and forgot to leak the turn around, consequently Lib posters who are on the gossip chain kept up the seats to the Govt in WA theory. Amazing stuff that leak.
I’m ditching my Beazley would have won theory if the WA Beazley number isn’t rogue. And a nice girl like me doesn’t ditch a theory that can’t be disproven on a whim. Boys were created to be ditched on a whim not perfectly good theories huh Mr Mumble.
Mal from Vic (48),
Family First will not be preferencing the Liberals as they did last time.
DLP,
Gough Whitlam was on the right of the ALP and was ready to end the Split, but Jim Cairns came too close in the leadership ballot at the time. The right of the ALP then was not the right of the ALP now, just as the right of the Liberals then was not the right of the Liberals now and the left of the ALp now is not the left of the ALP then.
I think the Nats are in more trouble than the Libs. The vote for them now looks soft to me as in 2001/04 it more relfected taking up the slack of the collapse of One Nation than there own merits. The coalition has a strnge hold on lower income rurual areas which it used to hold more for ideological (anti-union, race) reasons that I don’t think work these days.
Damn Simon, you beat me too it. Downer sounds like a spoilt kid who has his toys taken away from him. It will not win him any votes. Also, we know that even though English is a Germanic language, these days it has a lot of Romantic influences. Also, 2 months sounds like he wasn’t prepared to actually do anything more than learning to count and say hello.
Downer’s going Down
One consequence of the annihilation of the Rodent by the Ratcatcher may be a certain hubris on the part of the Ratcatcher. Something I am concerned about, is whether Garrett will actually end up as Minister for Environment. If he doesn’t there will be a lot of pi**ed people out there.
For me dangerous climate change is the big deal – not Work Choices or interest rates. (Even though paying the mortgage and educating two kids is very difficult at times.)
I live on Lake Alexandrina and you can watch it dry up before your very eyes. This going to have very serious consequences within the next few months.
Garrett has the commitment to drive the serious measures needed, but he will need Rudds’s total backing. If he gets sidelined in Arts or something I will relegate Rudd to no better than Howard.
Glen even with the Nationals at 1.5%. Morgan matches Galaxy and Newspoll. Plus a number of small polls. Morgans last poll was a rogue poll which is possibly why this one came out early.
I think another reason why is the fact that Backflip Barnaby supported the sale of Telstra – which is a BIG issue in the bush with a lack of phone coverage, crap landline quality and virtually no broadband in many areas.
And before anyone says Wireless will work, let me tell you when there is heavy rain and strong easterly winds coverage will be non-existent.
Tony…Garrett like the rest of Rudd’s front bench is invisible you wont be hearing alot from him during the election campaign…
Chinese, a tonal language, is substantially harder to learn for a native English speaker than French. There is no way a two month course in any language brings you up to fluency, from a low base. How well does Downer actually speak French? Etc, etc, etc.
“I know dozens and dozens of people who speak a lot of languages, they don’t just speak Mandarin, but other languages as well.”
Downer
I have heard that Rudd also speaks good Swahili, no shit.
The death of the National Party is predicted before every election, but they survive. A lot of people in rural seats keep blindly voting for the Nats. There’s no way on earth Labor will win safe National Party seats in N.S.W and Vic. I think the ALP’s best prospects for a gain from the Nats is Page. If there’s a huge landslide, maybe Gippsland is a possibility?
Assuming Rudd wins a fair sized majority, the likes of Bill Shorten, Bob Debus and Maxine McKew will be in the Cabinet, so Garrett could very well be sidelined to another portfolio.
138 Simon,
Maybe Downer may try his French on the Canadian Prime Minister?
HH: They may pick up a few. Not the last Victorian election, but the one before it saw the Nats take a huge hammering and rather than seats going to the Libs, they fell to Labor. Of course that’s a state election, but it is possible some very safe Nat seats become ’safe’ or ‘fairly safe’.
Guido Harper is from Alberta far far far from Quebec and Downer would be disrespecting him by speaking in French to him after all he’s a Tory.
Do I detect the smell of death????
portlandbet has Labor at $2.00 in Page – certainly within the realm.
Talking of the Nats vote share is unrevealing.
Rural Australia, in modern times, is significantly more conservative (in the true sense of the word) than urban and provincial city Australia. Ergo the Nats are a protected species, not by reason of the old rural-weighting, but by the fact they colonised fertile soil, even if that soil grows less populous over time.
(As it happens, I prefer the Nats over the Liberals, and would have supported Springborg over Beattie – but the 3 cornered contest restriction prevents me voting that way).
Re 149 Howard Hater
That’s it the McDonaldization of the Cabinet. Career politicians rather than career environmentalists.
I think I’ll vote Green. Always have before, but only on the Senate. This time maybe it should be reps as well.
Surely it’s their policies and attitude, etc which is important and not which Celeb gets which portfolio. Who cares which portfolio Garrett gets?
Unlike Downer who is very visible, he was quoted on Sky News today as saying: “EVERYONE, LOOK AT ME, LOOK AT ME, I’M MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS! I CAN SPEAK FRENCH! PARLEZ VOUS FRANCAIS?!”
The Chinese President has invited the Rudds to the Beijing Olympics.
This APEC Summit is fast becoming an own goal for Howard/Dolly Downer.
And, the Chaser dudes arrested again.
Garrett may still get a cabinet position, because he is unaligned and because of that he will make up one of the few positions set aside for centre/unaligned. Whether he keeps environment is another matter, but it might require a deal with the left for it to happen.
Anti-Bush Protesters moon APEC motorcade
September 7, 2007 – 4:20PM
A protest involving around 50 bare-bottomed activists spilled onto Sydney streets today, stalling an APEC motorcade and triggering scuffles with police.
I love it. Non violent but gets the point across and gets media attention.
I don’t understand why he doesn’t join the left?
Exactly Paul K. It is Garrett’s attitude that uniquely qualifies him for environment. His celeb status can also be useful in selling the difficult measures that may be required to combat dangerous climate change.
Incidentally, criticism of him because he has supported the Tamar pulp mill (subject to worlds best practise), is misguided. Remember he backed the
Visy pulp mill in Tumut – it was worlds best practise. We need to value add in Australia ( or stop using paper).
(This does not mean the mill in the Tamar valley should go ahead if it is likely to cause any damage at all.)
because he sold them out!
I wonder how many of those face to face interviews occur in national party held seats? Oh and there is a morgan senate poll up.
I bet Peter Garrett will do a lot of campaigning in marginal seats. He was quite effective during the Victorian election campaign, helping Labor hold on to the seat of Melbourne.
I believe Labor have strengthened its position in the polls for three reasons:
1. Rudd got really horny so he rang up his journo mate to take him to a strip club. LOL.
2. The Liberals even at this stage don’t have a clue as to their leadership plans.
3. “The buck stops with me” beautifully said PM Rudd.
So how is the election going at the moment? 15 minutes left in the Grand Final, and Labor have just kicked a field goal to go to a 19 point lead – you hear Ray Warrens voice “RUUUDD IS HEADED FOR THE LOOODGE” oh yeah.
Today from APEC: There’s Dubya, he’s come across for APEC from the other side of the world, he gets up on stage, he’s got an APEC sign in front of him, he’s got a massive APEC sign behind him, and so what does he call it? OPEC! How in hell did this bloke ever get to be president of the most powerful nation on earth? He wouldn’t have the intelligence of a circumcised p—- gone wrong!
The country is in deep trouble from the drought. La nina hasn’t produced rain. Country people know that the Coalition has done damn all about global warming, or, if your prefer the Republican version, climate change.
They would do better to vote Greens or Labor or anything but the Coalition if they want their government to take it seriously.
Page is a very good bet $2. Go for it. It should be $1.50.
Peter Garrett won’t join the left as he is conservative.
My taxi driver in Paris told the other guy: “Va te faire encouler”.
That’s what the Australian people, including conservative commentators are saying to John Howard.
He’s already visted Hasluck with Rudd to announce a plan to make Perth a Solar City.
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0807/msCCloo300.php
I basically agree with the statement but I’m not convinced on the “uniquely” part. In any case who ever ends up with Environment has got to be better than Howard’s choices so far.
Got back to Australia, landed in Sydney, no Age so I brought the Australian. Photographs on the front page were interesting, they all tell a story, interesting read.
The opinion page, what I joke, this is supposed to be the paper that sets the national agenda?
Dennis Shanahan bleating; I’m sorry I tried to read it from start to finish, it was just too all over the place, and really just a load of drivel.
Janet Albrechtsen. Three column feet to say “I Love you John but piss off”.
Interesting that crikey.com.au gets a mention on page 17 as a source. This is the paper that claims to have it’s finger on the pulse and crikey gets quoted as the source of rumor?
Or if it was Roy & H.G. “At this stage the ALP has more bums on seats.”
Tony, I think it’s very likely Garrett will be given Environment, assuming a Labor Government. The only original concern in giving him this spokeman position was that it might compromise or embarrass him, with Labor going for centrist solutions and being stuck with Lennon.
I saw him at the National Press Club luncheon the other day and he handled that very well. He’ll be an asset to Labor. I’d take issue with Glen’s claim of invisibility. Word I’ve picked up is that he’s in demand in marginal seats and is well received.
Yeah, a 40-bum salute. Nice work.
Noticed that a lib backbencher, Washer, has said he thinks the PM should adopt a lower profile and let ministers step into the limelight. Interesting.
Does this mean a move to sideline Howard during the campaign, that is, if he doesn’t step down after APEC, which I think he will.
A few points on the latest poll
The rise in the Green vote is no surprise considering the attention the pulp mill was getting last weekend.
All seemed to be going well on that front during the week, until John Howard seemed to get the message wrong on Friday and was forced into a reversal on Sat. (JWH being forced into a reversal by the party is very new)
Bottom line figure is no surprise as the momentum is now so strong against John Howard.
To use the Titanic metaphor again, John Howard is both the iceberg and captain of the ship.
Peter Garrett can’t join the left, his seat was a gift from the right. God knows what he would find in his letterbox or what might happen to the family pet if he crossed them…
On the Nats, I think there has to be justification for saying that nothing will change in the rural areas, because otherwise movements could be missed as Will rightly said happened in Victoria in 1999. People have been saying that the Nats are finished for years, but they have been largely right. This has been a long running decline, but at times the pace has quickened and this could be one of those times. The rapid rise and fall of One Nation shows that the loyalty of their base is nowadays weaker than appears and the large swing going on in safe government seats should be allowed for.
When Channel 9 comes out with a lead story on Howard contemplating quiting its truly ominous signs for the Coalition…
I never thought it possible but once again the media have shown their true colours ‘red’…they’ve somehow turned APEC from being a boost for Howard into a boost for Rudd…
Picking the end of the Nats is like picking the end of a bull market – everyone knows that its going to end, nearly everyone gets the timing wrong – but at the end of the day, the outcome is still “the end”
Can anyone come up with a case in a Westminster system where a government heading for defeat changed leaders at this stage in the electoral cycle and actually won? Can’t think of one myself. Adam (you implied Molesworth reader) can you come up with one?
just sent a email to my local member {alex somalay %10 margin} asking who he will vote for if there is a spill and said it will affect my vote what his answer is. waiting.ps. electorate is fairfax.
It was NEVER going to be a boost for Howard! We all knew Howard would stand next to Bush and tell him how fabulous he is, and how wonderful his policies are, even though Bush has lower approval ratings than Truman!
How do you explain Andrew Bolt and Janet Albrechtsen telling Howard to resign? Are you saying they are REDs under the bed?
Mindless post for the evening: Sportingbet has the ALP ahead in the following seats:
Tas: Braddon, Bass
NT: Solomon
SA: Kingston, Makin, Wakefield.
NSW: Parramatta, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Macquarie
WA: Stirling, Hasluck, (Holding Cowan),
Qld: Bonner, Moreton, Blair
Libs still ahead in Wentworth and Bennelong. Pro ALP swing of about 6% in Qld indicated but it only yeilds the ALP three seats, that said change of the week was that Blair (Qld) firmed up as an ALP gain, also odds on an ALP gain narrowed most markedly in Sturt (SA), Boothby (SA), Bowman (Qld) and Herbert (Qld). The Libs are still ahead in all these four seats.
Portlandhouse gives a broader selection of seats and indicates a similar trend. It’s slowing that a stronger swing is building in NSW with the odds of an ALP victory shortening in Page, Hughes, Greenway and Robertson also.
Perth and Vic appear to be the weak spots for the ALP. Rural WA is better for the ALP and betting is indicating a strengthening ALP swing in Kalgoorlie. The marginal seats around Perth all have the ALP ahead but by a very small margin (Stirling and Cowan are very, very close). Vic appears to be no change.
On a seat by seat basis, at this point, it’s a long way from a “Ruddslide”.
The OZ today was slagging off the Fairfax press for not taking APEC seriously. Haven’t bought the Age this week as I have been collecting nature DVD’s for the young psephs from the Hun. The OZ should closer to home as the Hun hasn’t been too nice about APEC either. It surely can’t help JWH to be so closely associated with GWB at this time.
libsrok
I live in Fairfax as well, don’t expect an answer from Alex Somlyay. All he ever gives is the somlyay report (once a year) and a fridge magnet at chrissy. He was with Coonan today announcing a dud broadband proposal. 2 wimax base stations.
149
Howard Hater Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Assuming Rudd wins a fair sized majority, the likes of Bill Shorten, Bob Debus and Maxine McKew will be in the Cabinet, so Garrett could very well be sidelined to another portfolio.
If Peter is moved anywhere other than the current portfolio, please please please put him into Aboriginal affairs. That is perhaps the one place where he can do as much good, if not more, than where he is now
Finding all the talk of Howard standing down very hard to fathom.
I didn’t expect the end to be so brutal, bloody and as captivating as a car accident.
Or will we all wake up on Oct 28 wondering how he did it again??
Tomorrows papers – in every State- will lead with Howard’s future. He will be gone Monday. Costello will be sworn in. It will be presented as a generational change. Costello will be THE story for the next eight weeks. He will turn left on climate change,on Iraq, in IR and on “sorry” to Aboriginals. He will focus the campaign itself on the economy – the Libs strengths.
If JWH were to resign next week, and there was a swift clean transition to Peter Costello, a major policy shakeup, a few swift political moves, a few ministers that won’t run again (Howard of course, Ruddock, Downer maybe). A this is what we have in store for you folks! Would that be enough to starve the ALP of oxygen for a couple of weeks? The cabinet could stay the same with the promise of change. If it happens on Monday, a bit of biffo in the house maybe whilst the Canadian PM is in town.
Any charge regarding not changing the cabinet could be retorted with ‘who is Kevin going to drop?’ after the big day? Andrew Landeryou was running the line earlier this week that Nicola Roxon was headed for the chop – Bill Shorten or Greg Combet have to replace someone.
Same here. You never know what will happen during a campaign, with Howard as leader, the result could still close. With anyone else as leader they lose “experience” which is their only remaining asset.
Alpal and I are obviously in sync.
125
Aristotle Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
“The last 30 polls (mid-May till today) show….a 9% swing”
Yes, spot on Aristotle. The swing is pronounced, pervasive and persistent: the kind of thing that marks a turning point in a data series.
This cannot end soon enough for the Liberals, and yet the worst is not over for them. The campaign has been running now for months – the fact that Parliament hasn’t been dissolved is a mere technicality – and the trend in favour of Rudd is consolidating every week. Come the formal end of the campaign, a 9% swing from the Coalition is going to look like a good result for them.
Those bloggers here – and commentators everywhere – who say the polls should narrow when the election is called and that the final result will be closer than the polls suggest should try to defend their claims. These claims rely on the assumption that the polls are aberrant or that people are fickle, that Howard is in fact indestructible or that Rudd is so brittle that he will start to disintegrate for no reason.
Why should this be so? Rudd is out-performing Howard in every sense. Why will this change?
The factors that have driven Howard to the point of political oblivion are still operating and are more likely to eat further into his support than somehow go into reverse.
How very Greek this is, Aristotle: the prince should be at the height of his power, but is on the brink of ruin. He has to suffer: he can see his fate approaching and yet cannot avert it. Trapped by his own identity, he is a participant and a spectator too at his own downfall.
libsrok
I live in Fairfax as well, don’t expect an answer from Alex Somlyay. All he ever gives is the somlyay report (once a year) and a fridge magnet at chrissy. He was with Coonan today announcing a dud broadband proposal. 2 wimax base stations.
ruawake i agree somlyay is a joke. meet over a beer at the coolum bar after the elec. and toast alex downfall if u want. lol
Guys, has anyone ever thought, as per Possums interpretation of CT, that the party knows the defeat is on and that they believe that Howard is more likely to save the majority of seats? Best for the party and all that….
On current form everything the Liberals do fails. So changing leaders to a more unpopular leader. Hmmmm
I can’t see Costello being much good at this late stage if they changed, espicially seeing that Costello has always said that he thought that Work Choices didn’t go far enough.
Grooski – you might be spot on. When it comes to saving the furniture who’s your best bet – Howard.
Howard’s personal numbers have stayed high with a net positive rating even recently. Costello untried Leader and untried campaigner. He’s a stellar Parliamentary performer. It’d be a really tough call to plug the pin on Howard.
WOW 9 News Adelaide “Howard on Shaky Ground”
“Alexander Downer is receiving phone calls from senior front benchers who are concerned that Howard’s leadership is the Government’s main problem. Peter Costello is not leading a charge for change, but is said to be willing to take over if drafted.” – Laurie Oakes
The Nats probably will do better than the Libs proportionately speaking, but they are still looking at a few potential losses: Page and Cowper, possibly Herbert and maybe even Flynn or Gippsland.
The problem for the Nats is that once lost it is much harder for them to regain the seats, as they have to stave off the Libs as well as the ALP.
LD #183
I wouldn’t place too much weight on the seat by seat polls in the early stages/.
1) they must be trailing indicators, depending on the bookies’preconceptions, until a weight of money comes in.
2) It follows that the direction of movement is more important as an indication of punter prefence.. in this case almost uniformly towards ALP.
on this point I was heartened by the movement in Bennelong on CentreBet.. from 2.40 ALP/1.50 Coalition to 2.20/1.59 (Go Maxine!)
That’s 41% prob, up from 38%.
Max’s comment @ 53 highlights an interesting point. Some voters might swing back to the coalition in light of a rout approaching ‘biblical’ force. Whether it is feasible or not, public perception of the possibility will come into effect. ie. If the polls keep moving the way they are… there might not be an opposition at all. I imagine the coalition will highlight this ‘fear’ in the coming months. Perhaps we should maintain at least the veneer of a ‘closer than expected’ predicted outcome just in case.
(But an opposition of 25 led by the likes of Monsieur Downer, Mistress Bishop & ghost of the living dead… Ruddock… does sound pretty sweet.)
Glen 97: Neither Swan nor Costello is an Economist. And both have the benefit of the same treasury advice. The greatest reforming treasurer of our time left school at 14. Costello’s stewardship over record trade deficits in a boom of this magnitude, tells all. Give it up.
This election has slaughter written all over it…
Howard leaderhsip was the lead story on SBS news too!
Could this all become self-fullfilling?
Selffulfilling? Possibly
On the other hand, given the obtusness of the MSM (see Possum’s comments re the C/T report) maybe we’re seeing a pack egerly following cochineal instead of blood.
It was second here (as part of the Putin Story) Lead story was Shrub’s verbal dyslexia. Chaser and “security” was 3rd, with them Dom Knight, Chris Taylor and Craig R stopped for having cardboard limos they were going to “drive” in the area.
I wonder if the cops would arrest any children under 10 yrs of age (Minimum age of criminal responsability) riding kiddies trikes/push cars -especially of the police variety ?
Got back to Australia, landed in Sydney, no Age so I brought the Australian.
Janet Albrechtsen. Three column feet to say “I Love you John but piss offâ€.
charles 171
LOL. Nice one.
And I agree that Aboriginal Affairs would be the perfect portfolio for Garrett and the Aborigines, especially as a separate department, not rolled into any other.
I agree with Jasmine and Sideline Eye among others – back in May/June I thought the L-NP would close it down to 48-52 or 49-51 by election time and in June it looked like they were doing it but they haven’t really gained a thing since and if anything it is now opening up again. It’s still likely to be 43-57 or so whenever the election is called, and even with the undecided drifting back and movements depending on the course of the campaign it will be really hard work for the L-NP to get it back to 47-53.
Looking at Portlandbet, a useful thing to notice is how many of the “close” seats have the Liberals ahead in the current betting. There are 29 seats (excluding the two that Independents are favoured to retain) with both parties $1.40 or longer and Labor leads in just ten of those. What this means is even if the seat tally looks close, there are a lot more risks in the L-NP bucket than Labor’s. Furthermore Labor isn’t very likely to lose favoritism in any seat it currently leads in while several of the Coalition seats will switch over once money comes in on the basis of current trends.
Without completely ruling out that the Coalition might find some way out of this mess, I reckon the question is most likely whether it will be fairly close or a massacre. My current estimate (first attempt at a seat total from me!) is 64-84-2, which accords very closely with Mumble’s, but that could blow out a lot before the election if the polls do not move during the campaign.
Alpal & blackburnpseph, Agree with part of your commentary, i.e., speculation on Howard’s future will be all over the msm over the weekend. However, I think they would be quite aware of how very, very, hugely repulsive to the electorate is the member for Higgins. They are in panic mode and likely only to run in ever diminishing circles, unable to decide anything. Evidence for their being in panic mode is readily available in their behaviour, Downer shrilly boasting about his French vs. Rudd’s Mandarin, bleating about Rudd boasting he was going to win, Costello looks depressed (wouldn’t mind having the opportunity to do a mental state examination, would be absolutely fascinating), Howard’s reaction to Rudd’s performance with Hu. I could go on, however, I’ve been observing those who have been on the Telly and radio, and without doing formal evaluations, I’d bet my bottom dollar that most of them are either depressed or panicking. Not a good position from which to make major decisions. If they do insert the fork, or Howard decides to go (which I think highly unlikely, too stubborn and so on), it’s just more evidence to me that they haven’t got a clue what to do to reverse the descent into hell.
blackburnpseph Peter Garrett won’t join the left because he doesn’t line up with them on some issues.
Once Kevin Bonham starts entering the debate, it must be time for me too!
John Howard is gone because the commentators say he is.
Once you lose the support of the press, particularly the Murdoch press, you can rack your cue. It is possible to win without Murdoch, but you need to not have had it to start with (like Rudd up until now). But to have it then lose it … there is no going back from there.
I know it seems difficult to believe that Howard will stand aside before the election, but put yourself in his position. He is in a poop sandwich. He needs to pick the lesser of two evils: resigning now he keeps a modicum of dignity; wait for the election and his legacy is that of the biggest loser since … ever, particularly if he loses his own seat (which is more likely than not.) All the evidence to date is that Howard is a pragmatist – he does whatever it takes – and a pragmatist would quit now.
Anyway, we will know soon enough …
“ruawake i agree somlyay is a joke. meet over a beer at the coolum bar after the elec. and toast alex downfall if u want. lol”
Just have to dodge Birtwill St. can stand driving past the invisible man’s office.
I’ll be the idiot doing the silly walks up David Lowe Way if Somlyay looses.
Message to coalition. Please, please, please install Dolly as leader.
Re (211)
Enjaybee Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
Message to coalition. Please, please, please install Dolly as leader.
It would only make the damage worse lol and while I might enjoy seeing it I think we have as much chance of seeing that as the Crows have of winning the GF
OK, people have been asking about swings that have happened this close to an election. To be a pedant, a swing should be using the same measure, what we are actually talking about is a difference between a poll 8 weeks out and an election result.
Here is what Morgan had for ALP first preference 8 weeks out and then the result at the election from 1975 onwards
75 43 42
77 44 39
79 45 45
80 45 47
83 49 52
84 50 51
87 49 48
90 45 39
93 43 44
96 40 37
98 44 40
01 39 44
04 44 38
What the polls are telling me is the level of hatred for this government is swelling so much you can now taste it… it’s not like other elections because no other government in our history has ever been as mean and divisive as this one. References to past polls cannot reflect the mood most of us presently feel because we haven’t been here before.
Incarcerated children, draconian sedition laws, cobbled senate, military in the bush, citizens tortured, Sydney barricaded, our states under attack, 650,00 people dead… lies upon lies upon denial and deceit… Workchoices, and now guns pointed at women in the street! Our Anzacs would be rolling in their graves at such a national capitulation without firing a shot.
Australians are waking up and they are discovering that their countrymen feel the same… the tide is on and this election will break records.
APEC is Rome: the Emperor is playing the fiddle and (bugger me!) the Foreign Minister can speak French… (who’d have thought?)
Off with their aspirational fascist heads!
Julie
(212)
A little more damage would be icing on the cake. Keep your eyes on the Crows – they might just do it. Personally I prefer the Power.
Dreadful TV news coverage for the Rodent: his good mate Bush mangling the English language, Kevin Rudd making the most of his APEC appearances, and rumours of a leadership handover to Captain Smirk.
Combine that with more examples of over the top security in Sydney and the Chaser boys – not what Howard was hoping for when he decided to hold APEC in Sydney.
However, according to the ABC radio political correspondent, Western Australian Liberals are still convinced Howard can win and they will hold all their WA marginals & possibly gain Cowan off Labor.
NJB 211 and Julie 212
Downer as PM is bizarrely interesting as a political tactic.
Boothby and Sturt are both lost for the Coalition on this kind of swing but maybe a fluent Francophone PM from SA would hold these seats.
i cant see that Howard stepping down will help the libs, Costello isnt very popular and his undermining the party by showing the rifts between Howard and himself yet again is still fairly fresh, it could actually cause them a bit more angst, people waiting with baseball bats to get Howard could feel frustrated and angry having that taken from them and whack the libs a bit harder, Howard again today said he would be leading the libs into the election, i think he’s too pig headed to give up and he’ll hang onto the leadership just in case another Tampa comes sailing over the horizon during the campaign.
by the way Bush thanked Mr. Howard Austrian the prime minister today.
The WA LIberals are in a mess locally, with their leader having 16% approval rating, and there is talk HE could be rolled after a federal poll. When Howard was here the other month, Mr Omodei was nowhere to be seen.
gecko
i think the public are saying:
the tumbrels are ready
we only need the guillotines set up
liberty. equality. fraternity.
dolly should know those words if he studied french
(personally i think the only french he has studied is lingerie and stockings)
Gecko, apparently, does not understand what fascism means unless of course post 214 is hyperbole. If it is the latter, I say bring back Cerdic Conan so we can have a little balance, please!
It is interesting, the polls indicate support for the ALP is somewhere between 55-60% and yet this forum seems to be 80-85%. It may say something about the demographic of bloggers, vocal left-of-centre or political/poll junkies.
HH at 216
If the WA Liberals are thinking that, they should stop drinking seawater.
With friends like Bush who needs enemies? While dubya was fluffing his lines and calling australian troups austrians, Rudd was impressing the Chinese with his mandarin (the language, not the fruit).
Considering recent polls showing the great majority of australians distrust bush, the president’s clear preference for Howard can only work against him. It’s a lame-duck president supporting a dead-duck PM. He’s tied to the past. Rudd is seen as a leader for the future. I don’t know if that’s what Howard intended for OPEC, err APEC.
What will the polls show next week?
213
ifonly Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 8:01 pm
OK, people have been asking about swings that have happened this close to an election….
ifonly, it would also be helpful if we could see the trends leading up to election.
It is clear that final votes and poll data can vary by just a little….or by a significant amount in either direction. But from a cursory glance, it looks like the trend shifted according to whichever side held the political initiative as polling day approached.
For a few weeks mid-year the trend away from Howard appeared to be gradually recoiling, but more recently the trend has resumed its direction in favour of Rudd. We are so close to the real poll that we could be in your 8-week window and what we are seeing now is the extension of Labor’s lead. It certainly feels like it.
I think Howard has tried everything he can think of and has failed to steer the political momentum back to his advantage. Rudd’s standing is growing every day and the Liberals know it – you can tell from Alexander’s bumbling afforts to find words of hope and reassurance. Political initiative is not something you associate with the Government: they look stricken, in fact.
I hope that Howard does not take the coward’s way out and resign next week. His one chance to preserve some dignity is to fight it out and take the verdict on the chin and give us a much deserved concession speech. VCR’s around the country are waiting for it.
JULIE.
hey my beloved crows came from this position both times they won their premierships, the only team that managed it lol, i’m listening to the power match now as i type.
i’m hoping and praying Howard hangs in there, i know its a bit nasty and petty but i WANT to whack him, i WANT to see the self satisfied grin wiped off Downers face when his mate gives his final speech,{is it my imagination or has Downers cheeks got an unhealthy red lately} all i’m doing now is keeping everything crossed that no Tampa incident turns up, i WANT to see Prissy Pyne lose his seat, he’s a younger Howard and a nasty piece of work believe me.
I agree with blindoptimist on this, I think election campaigns tend to accentuate trends, not change them. Those who think Howard has a tactic to turn this election would have to explain what it is and why it hasn’t worked so far. I think Howard just has to wait until he can pick up a positive trend and hope he can push it further. But I just can’t see what it would be, and whatever it was, it would have to be a stunner.
The more the media continue to speculate about Howard and resigning the more it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy…the only possible way Howard can quell the bad press is to commit to serve a full term if elected…since that is unlikely…expect Oakes and the like to continue to talk up a leadership spill…the last thing the Libs want is to lose 2 Prime Ministers in a matter of weeks…wonder how to focus groups are going maybe they are saying that Howard is making them switch off…the thing about Howard is that he’s a catch 22 i mean he’s the best and worst asset the Coalition has at the moment…while i dont think he’ll quit he could be forced to step aside…clearly something has got to give if you’re 20points down in the polls…
George Bush told MarkVaile “We’re kicking ass” in relation to Iraq according to the Sydney Morning Herald.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/by-george-now-its-all-the-way-with-howard-j/2007/09/05/1188783320123.html
Non of these guys live in the real world and that’s why they’re a dying breed.
Who would want the leadership now? I think senior Liberals know this problem extends well beyond Howard and that any new challenger would if anything make things worse (and be blamed for it). I wouldn’t take the leadership at face value, I think it is mainly driven by Liberal supporters trying to get their heads around what is coming up by kidding themselves Howard is the problem. The reason why people think Howard will step down this time is because otherwise what would he stay around to do? He has no programme.
It may be better if he promises to resign within the first 12 months after the election.
I think he will make a big policy announcement. Remove the GST from petrol and houses. Remove one of the tax scales, cut the GST by 2%. If he THINKS he is going to lose, then he will try a radical policy change, it isn’t like he has that many votes to lose, if it goes well he could gain some votes.
Costello would take it. For years now he has demonstrated that the only way he would ever become P.M. is if it was handed to him on a platter. He never had the guts to go get the prize for himself.
[the only possible way Howard can quell the bad press is to commit]…suicide.
RE: Garrett, I don’t really care what they do with him.
Mostly, I just want someone with a clue – and I mean that, not an expert, just someone with an actual clue in Communications.
Alston was a complete Joke – dubbed “Worlds Biggest Luddite” by one tech journal, and Coonan was ridiculous trying to explain the internet filter hack on Perth radio the other day. What she was saying was obviously wrong.
Please – this stuff is important, can we just get someone who can actually understand the portfolio?
Simon, yes. It’s the NTL rule. If Howard is this far behind in the polls, he may as well try everything he can. If it works OK. The threat now is from his own party.
There will be no change of leadership of the Liberal Party before the election because Howard wont step down (Jannette wont let him) and no one else will want to challenge him anyway.
My reading of Howard’s character is that he is stubborn and has deluded himself that only he can save the Liberal Party and therefore must stay on as leader.
I tend to agree with Possum Comitatus’ analysis that the Libs are now adopting a defensive strategy to minimise the extent of the defeat and that Howard is their best bet to limit the damage.
For a while this year the polling was going to the standard script. ALP has a lead – the conservatives shake things up a bit, bring them within striking range and start the election.
This time around it was slowly tracking back to the coalition but then stopped and went back then other way. I was casting my mind back to think of the point this occoured. I think it was the week that Haneef affair blew up in Andrew’s face and Howard annouced the takeover of Davenport. I think these were the last two straws – its been going backwards for Howard ever since and may not stop.
re the leadership stuff
maybe joe hockey is a possibility though worstchoices and him being a member of the bfacs
wouldnt help
Paul k you have sunk to an all time low…your fellow left wing supporters ought to be ashamed to have you on their side…that you would make fun of the Prime Minister and suggest he kill himself just shows what kind of a disgusting person you are i hope you have a real hard think about what you said that is just plain wrong…
Prime Minister Julie Bishop
Prime Minister Peter Costello
Prime Minister Brendan Nelson
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
Prime Minister Joe Hockey
Which one has the best ring to it just in case Mr Howard gets the tap on the shoulder???
Glen,
I did it because I knew you’d react just the way you did. It’s my democratic right to make fun of the PM. Do you even remember what democracy is?
[paul k Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
Actually when the WA Liberal Party launched their State Election campaign in 2005, Colin BArnett entered the hall to a High School band playing the theme from MASH, which is subtitled “Suicide is Painless”
Rather prophetic I thought.
Prime Minister Downer.
The name suits the Libs in the polls at the present.!
dare I ask BFACS?
Who would want the leadership now?
Julie Bishop
Tomorrow’s meeting between Abe, Howard and Bush will be interesting. Three lame duck leaders sitting in a row.
I for one am glad i dont have Paul K on my side of politics the left can have all the people who think its funny to suggest people kill themselves as a joke…
If i remember correctly Colin was ahead by about 10points just out from the election then………the canal……..but had it been 2 years later the canal idea probably would have won him the election…but in 2005 nobody gave a toss about water security on either side of politics…
231
No one would believe a “big policy” announcement from John Howard.
Maybe that’s the trouble here. Howard won’t resign, and the rest of the party is too gutless to challenge. So it is a perfect stalemate which could lead them into electoral oblivion.
I still think the only way Howard will go is if Dolly convinces him to resign, and for there to be a smoothly orchestrated transition to Costello, and Downer as the deputy.
Reverting to a party room vote would ensure a landslide defeat, because it would result in bitterness and division.
That’s OK Glen. I’m also glad we’re not on the same side.
Glen, get off that moral high ground mate. You lost rights there a long way back.
I find it curious that right wingers like Glen take attacks on their favorite leaders as personal attacks. They treat Howard and Bush like the Communists did Stalin or the North Koreans treat their Dear Leader. Any attack on the leader is a personal attack on them. Why do they copy the Communists whom they claim to hate?
Boll im sorry but i dont hear nostro or cedric or steven say Rudd should commit suicide…unlike your friend Paul k….
There is a difference between fair political attacks and sick disgusting ones as done by the insensitive Paul k…
I for one am glad that the Right does not stoop to such lows Boll…
Dear, dear, dear. Glen is left alone, the sole flag bearer for the Right. What a pitiful state of affairs. And the economy is going so well! The
ECONOMY!! Can the election possibly be about anything else?!!!
Where is Stephen Kaye? Where is Nostradamus? Have they left the bunker with promises of total support then fled to Switzerland?
Poor Glen. Poor, poor Glen…
Grow up Glen. You’re the only one who took the post seriously. So runaway and call the Terrorist Hotline now that you’ve discovered a security threat on the PM.
Albert F
i’ll bite too
boringly facile and contemptibly stupid?
Glen #240.
A choice between arsenic, stricknen, cyanide, acid and dioxin?
Howard won’t be challenged. Remember he is commissioned as the PM. The slightest hint of a challenge and he will call the election.
The election won’t be anything near 60-40 or 59-41. People will return to the government if it looks like a rout. Australians generally don’t leave political wastelands after an election.
For example take the 1996 election, the ALP were still left with 49 seats in the reps and were able to rebuild quickly. The ALP were even left with 36 lower house seats after the 1975 election, enough to survive and plan.
Major parties are sometimes reduced by 50%-70% but are always left with enough to rebuild. The same will apply to the Liberals. The Nationals are another matter, changing demographics are killing them.
No Snakeboy they are off trying to get General Wenck to come to the rescue…no seriously i have no idea perhaps it is because everytime they post they get a verbal bashing as i often do…
Looks like im left to hold the fort ‘bunker’ or what’s left of it.
Regarding states – swing in WA is around 5-6%. Not big compared to Qld & Vic which are 10+%+. But it means seats will go in WA – Kalgoorlie maybe. SA is totally gone for the Libs – Labor have stopped spending money in SA.
Glen at 228 – good post. Although I do not agree with a lot of your posts, this one is somewhat better than some of the childish sniping by others.
Tom.
I agree with Glen on the potential for a leadership change to increase due to media pressure. It is impossible to know for sure whether Howard will step down, but it is now going to become very hard for him to move forward and expect positive publicity when he has a whole heap of prominent political commentators calling for his scalp. His colleagues will have to take this into account when considering the question of who is best to lead them to the election.
In particular, I think that the chances of Howard stepping down went up dramatically since Janet Albrechtsen’s article today.
If Howard does intend to stay, then I think he needs to call the election immediately and state his plans for his future very clearly. No more of this vague “I will stay as long as the party wants me” rubbish that we have been hearing for years now. Calling the election will be a circuit breaker, not in terms of the polling, but in getting the media off his back with respect to the leadership issue.
I wonder if Howard occasionally stops and reflects on how he got himself into such a mess. I personally think that Howard’s greatest shortcoming is a lack of foresight. Especially in the last few years, he spends most of his time in damage control mode rather than genuinely planning for future possibilities, not just in the policy area, such as the needs of the nation, but also in terms of his own political situation. He has ALWAYS lacked vision.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/09/07/1188783466709.html
Downer is a complete joke and as many say a buffon. If, if he can speak fench the only times I could see him using it is to ask where the teenis courts are and how he hates visiting busted arse countries.
The Chaser team should put him to the test and throw some choice insults his way in french, probably get the silly smile and the bobbing head reaction.
What’s wrong with the Libs losing two leaders in a couple of weeks? It is a just desert for eleven wasted years.
Julie in replay to what Kevin Rudds victory song should be i think it should be “Working Class Man” Jimmy Barnes,
Because the Working class man will be the winner by Christmas time
Julie @ 212
Don’t discount the Crows just yet. Port supporter no doubt? Please don’t align Downer becoming PM to the Crows winning the flag. I think that is one of the very few things I would take offence to.
All this talk of leadership speculation, amazing how much influence one blunt column can have. Bandwagon jumpers the lot of you…
Yeah because he’ll be out of a job thanks to the return of unfair dismissals and will have more time at home with the kids…
What a winner they’ll be on…i can get you the moment they put in unfair dismissals unemployment will rise…maybe that’s Labor’s plans at keeping interest rates low…making unemployment higher….
Anyone who thinks Albrechtsen’s opinion is significant is just navel gazing. How many people read her? Just you guys. Try reading the HeraldSun & Telegraph. In last 2 days HeraldSun has had very negative front page headlines re APEC. (expense & Chaser). Which just confirms public opinion – Howard won’t get any lift rom this.
Another way to look at it is that the time in opposition has cost the ALP two leaders and I don’t hear anyone crying about that.
Simon, removing the GST off houses? No way, that would make it easier for people to own their own homes. Switching to All Tip would not make an ounce of difference. He has supported each and every one of Howards policies lock and stock? They change leadership now, they will get killed.
Howard and Costello should be remembered for the legacy of their tax reform (GST). A legacy where the best way for the younger generation to get to own their own home is for the older generation to kick the bucket.
It’s all over the news. It’s not just one column. So of coarse people are going to discuss it on a blog if they see it on TV, etc. Are they just supposed to ignore what everyone else is talking about in the media?
Whether Howard resigns or not it’s a big story because APEC was supposed to be a huge positive for Howard and instead he’s having to try to explain to Putin what all the strange questions are about a leadership challenge. Did you see the news conference with Howard and Putin? It was obviously embarassing for the PM.
i dont think albrechtsens actual opinion counts (I have NEVER read any of her pieces before today), its the symbolism of even the most die-hard Howard-lovers giving up that is significant
i also think that if Howard stays on, he is going to be tainted by the “you didnt even go when your media friends told you” tag. How stubborn does that look?? either way, its a very messy way to start an election campaign
Andrew – significant to who? The 99% of people who don’t read her?
The only thing Costello has ever wanted is to be PM. Howard has pushed his welcome to the limit so much that he has now desroyed his legacy as a savvy, hands on operator.
All he can do now is handball a “turd” to Costello and say, “Here, polish that and you win Government.”
The real anger in the Liberal Party must be pointed toward the rat bags who allowed Howard to earn the right to “Go out on his own terms”.
Read the polls and weep Libs.
Maxine in to $2.10 (against $1.65) at Centrebet. I think this is the best odds we’ve seen so far.
Austrian footy half-time.
David Charles @ 221
fascism: A government system with strong centralised power, permitting no opposition or criticism, controlling affairs of the nation while emphasizing an aggressive nationalism.
fascist: Anyone with extreme right-wing views esp. with regard to race.
Macquarie dictionary page 631. left hand side. half way up.
Hyperbole? Give me a break…. if they’re not there yet they’re certainly trying.
“Anyone who thinks Albrechtsen’s opinion is significant is just navel gazing. ”
I agree. It’s not that many people actually read Albrechtsen’s articles – and frankly, they are often on the loopy side, so why would you bother – but when one of the most loyal supporters of Howard turns around and knifes him, it can have a huge knock-on effect for other commentators in shaping the overall media narrative.
And this has already stepped up a notch today with commercial TV news bulletins referring to Howard on “shaky ground” and talk radio hosts bringing up the issue about whether Howard should step down. It will probably be all over the papers tomorrow morning too.
Albrechsten is in the same category of Akermann and Alan Jones. Theyre blatant pandering to one side of politics instantly turns off anyone but the most rusted on RW supporter.
It’s the Matt Prices of the media that are readable, and carry more influence. No doubt he has his own preconceptions, but his ‘bash the lot of them’ writing style appeals to all. If someone like Price clearly intimates at a leadership spill, then its likely to be on. Hope not, but if he bolts, history books will read “Howard the Coward”. People want to vote Howard out personally, they will punish them more if he bails.
Matt Price? Now doesn’t he write in a paper read by about 5% of the population? Get some perspective here people.
But I do agree that if Howard decides to cut and run the voters will punish the Libs.
#
“277
Winston Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Matt Price? Now doesn’t he write in a paper read by about 5% of the population? Get some perspective here people.”
His online blog is very popular.Over a period of time if you look at the number of responses he leaves the other journo’s for dead.
He is not a fan of Mr Rudd,but on the whole he is reasonably non biased.
At least he takes and makes the effort to respond to the bloggers,even if only to disagree.
Remember, no one has been punished for anything, yet!
Downer vs Rudd (before or after election) is a psycho-analyst’s dream. Downer stalks Rudd like a child who had the school captainship taken from him by the brighter spark.
Possum and Piping S: reports of the Nats demise will forever be premature. Australia is no urban conurbation – never will be according to the maps in my house. They retain a healthy branch structure that either of the ‘majors’ would die for.
People see the ONP phenomenon as sign of the softness of the Nat’s vote. Tosh. It was a ram-raid. That after so many years up the Libs’ fundament, the Nats still hold a swag of seats, is testament to their barnacle status.
Whether Howard resigns or not the fact that the question is being asked by his supporters so close to an election during APEC is significant. It shows how much the government has lost control of events. Things are spinning out of their control and even the government’s own supporters are now part of the problem for them.
Matt Price has a regular column in the GG as well as the Daily Telegraph. Not encompassing, I was referring to his writing style. How many people read albrechsten?
If McKew’s odds had shortened, you can ‘bet’ it is on speculation that Howard will do a runner – more than Labor’s chances in the seat if, as is more likely, Howard stays.
Time to buy the popcorn and wait for The Rodent’s concession speech. How sweet it will be.
Wonder who will be on Lateline…we had Beazley last night how about Hewson another failed leader….what happened to Tony Jones has Labor given him a safe seat or something lol!
Maybe Bill Hayden could make a Lateline appearance. What does happen to GGs when they retire?　
Max @ 263,
“Don’t discount the Crows just yet. Port supporter no doubt? Please don’t align Downer becoming PM to the Crows winning the flag. I think that is one of the very few things I would take offence to.
All this talk of leadership speculation, amazing how much influence one blunt column can have. Bandwagon jumpers the lot of you…”
No, sorry Max
. Don’t support either side. Just making note of the fact that Adelaide come in lower on the ladder as opposed to Port so reckoned their chances were less. Actually, while I live in NSW, I am a Victorian at heart (and my team is still in the game ;-D).
You have to admit though, that Downer isn’t going to get the Libs any increase in their polling results
Snakeboy said
Not yet. Things look dark, but Howard will fight to the bitter end. He will go out fighting, so keep that champagne on ice.
There is no assertion that columnists will influence election results, or evidence to back it up.
However, conservative commentators begging for a leadership change sounds like a desperate attempt to save the sinking ship. More sober writers asserting a leadership change with confidence smells like a leak. Just musing, which is essentially all anyone can do.
Matt Price has articles in the Sunday News Ltd tabloids as well, which is probably more influential / informative than all the stuff he writes for The Oz.
Yeah, exactly what I was thinking. So it will probably move back out if it is sure he stays.
I can’t wait for The Australian, there’s going to be some very interesting articles by Kelly and Shanahan. The editorial as well is going to be something.
Hang on, wouldn’t the states have to agree to a change in the GST rate? The Libs couldn’t guarantee a reduction in the GST.
Maybe Howard and Costello will do a reverse Hayden / Hawke. Howard could call the election, and resign on the same day.
TofK the only thing bad to come out of all this media speculation about Howard’s future is doing one thing and one thing only focusing on Howard and his leadership not on any policy benefits for the Government not on any failures or weaknesses of the Opposition…it fits the narrative of a sinking ship of an old and tired Government and the media will continue to break open the hole in the side of the Titanic even more if it can why??? because its news and it will sell papers and get people watching the tele the fact is all this leadership crap is distracting Howard from getting any benefit from APEC…a few concerted weeks of this from the media and Howard will call a snap poll in such a poor position or resign in favour of Costello its a catch 22 and there is no other way of describing it.
In theory yes, because it is an agreement with the states.
HOWEVER, in practice the GST is federal legislation, so the feds could just repeal the current legislation and replace it with new legislation, they don’t need the agreement of the states to do that.
The Crosby / Textor report said Howard should pick fights with the states, proposing to unlaterally cut the GST would be the mother of all fights. The states would have to defend not cutting a tax, what would the ALP do? Support or oppose.
I know it sounds crazy, but surely if Howard thinks he is going to lose he will do ANYTHING.
A few weeks on this blog there was great indignation from the left about Kevin Rudd being referred to Kruddy etc. and there was a lot high moral ground being taken about the right belittling Labor politicians.
Now there are lots of references to Dolly Downer and Captain Smirk etc.
The belittling seems to have ceased from the right, for a bit of balance can we have the childish bleats and belittling cease from the left as well.
It’s Howard’s fault, he doesn’t have any policies to talk about, so the media have started talking about him instead. If the government had a plan for the future there wouldn’t be this leadership speculation.
It’s like the government had an essay to write for a month, but they are trying to write it the night before.
Thanks for the data ifonly (213).
So what we can take out of this is that the normal range of primary vote fluctuation from this point in the electoral cycle for the ALP is at best a gain of 5%, and at worst, a loss of 6%.
Converting these primary %’s to 2PP %’s by applying the same proportional increase in the ALP’s vote in the latest Morgan poll (x1.224; 49 x 1.224=60) we get the following range:
Best case: gain 6.1%
Worst case: lose 7.3%
Let’s be conservative and say Labor’s 2PP is 58% and not 59% or 60%. And let’s also be pessimistic assume Rudd will have a bad campaign and lose 6%. That still leaves Labor on 52-48%; enough to win providing the swing is reasonably distributed.
But does anyone seriously think Rudd will have a bad campaign and lose that much vote share?
Please show me some evidence that he will have a bad campaign.
On his past and recent form in the media spotlight you’d have to say he will outperform Howard in the campaign, plus momentum and public appeal is with him.
So I would say at worst Rudd could only lose 2-3%, which would still put Labor in a crushing victory position of 55/56-45/44% 2PP.
My own view is that he’ll have a good campaign and retain most of the lead he currently has in the polls.
I acknowledge though the rebound effect; some people switching to avoid a landslide victory. But I only think this will count for 2-3% as the it’s time for change mood is a stronger factor in my view.
I prefer smirk and mirrors.
Post 274 is a disgrace. It adds nothing to the discussion. If the original post had been intended as hyperbole (hyberbole, by the way, I could understand), then Gecko’s contribution might have been mildly amusing yet the author says dismissively to that observation, “give me a break”. The Howard government is susceptible to many criticisms (very well articulated by regular posters on these threads) but it is not remotely fascist. A proper understanding of the meaning of totalitarianism and its fascist manifestation goes beyond reciting a Macquarie dictionary definition, although a study of history in the 1920’s and 1930’s could be a good starting point.
Like blackburnpseph @#298, I’m all for using their proper names.
There is a big difference between popular and influential … Today Tonight is popular, a lot of people watch it (I daresay not many that read this blog)… fewer people watch Lateline, but it is watched by people who matter, who may make opinion, , it is influential.
Goodness gracious me, Glen.
I always thought the heart of the Liberal philosophy was individual freedom and personal responsibility.
All this whingeing and blaming others for one’s personal misfortune is just not acceptable. Back to the room of mirrors for a close examination.
Can’t have the riff raff know you don’t like the the taste of hot steel up you. You have to deal with the circumstances the best way you can.
What I’m surprised about is the extent the leadership speculation has completely knocked off any coverage of APEC.
Remember, today was supposed to be the day when Russia and Australia signed their uranium deal (which they did). Instead, everyone is talking about Howard resigning and who his replacement will be…
What’s even more amazing is that it’s now only a week since the Morgan 54.5/45.5 poll, which showed the Coalition picking up 4% in 2 weeks. People were talking about a resurgence for Howard – just goes to show how much can change in a week in politics!!!
@275
Scotty Says:
September 7th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
Maxine in to $2.10 (against $1.65) at Centrebet. I think this is the best odds we’ve seen so far.
Scotty, Max was in to $2.10 about 3 weeks ago, but never shorter…….YET. Knuck,knuck,knuck!!
I Never read Albrechsten but I got the gist of the article from the first line or two, I clicked on to it and went to the bottom to see if there were any comments I was going to add mine about being a fair weather friend.
The Leadership issue will be in the MSM daily until the election date is announced, in the papers and on the nightly news. The troops will be in panic mode, the ship is sinking and there are no lifeboats
Re 305
An Edward 11 moment obviously being had in the City of Banyule
Looks like the APEC global warming target is going to be to cut emissions by 25% by 2030. However, it is not inforceable, AND the documenta says the United Nations forum is best equipped to deal with global warming. This is a smack in the face to both Australia and the U.S. who refuse to ratify Kyoto. So Rudd has an excellent way to attack this document during the election campaign.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22381708-29277,00.html
Btw,
Portlandbet has just (temporarily) suspended betting on Bennelong – I guess they’re waiting to find out what’s going to happen with JWH
Blackburnseph – sure Lateline is interesting, stimulating, etc. But influential? People who matter? Who might they be? Everyone gets a vote (just one vote), not just the people who watch the ABC.
This morning while taking a break from Work I sat in a coffee shop reading the Herald Sun, Victoria’s number 1 newspaper and the coverage of APEC was all positive for Rudd, I think page 3 or 4 was all about him speaking Mandarin.
When I look at these poll numbers, we are well past the point of calling them rogues, there is a clear swing on and has been all year.
On one hand it would be an amazing Election night if the result matched the polls, but looking at these numbers there is something scary about them.
I mean sure I want to see the back of Howard, but I’ve seen considerable worst Govt get beaten by smaller margins than these polls.
I recall 1996 was called approx 6:45 I wonder if Anthony Green will be calling it earlier than that.
I’m still somewhat baffled as to why Victoria doesn’t appear to be moving as much as NSW, QLD or SA.
I think the Nationals will do okay and while I suspect they will lose:
Page
Hinkler
Flynn
With Gippsland, Cowper, Wide Bay all looking interesting, but I will add with polls like these I feel we should chuck out the Pendulum for if these polls are right then what is coming will be hairy.
I recall in the 1997 British Election the BBC had a graphic of a Jet Fighter fly over a map of the UK and drop a bomb which when landed turned all the Blue seats Red.
What I find strange is I live in a Seat with a margin below 10% but I’m seeing nothing from the local MP, and I’m not seeing posters or ads in the local press, its as thou he has given up or just thinks this seat isn’t turning.
Its rubbish for People to day the types that live around my patch only read the Age, I only ever see them reading the Herald Sun.
I’m not surprised the ALP think they can pick up a Goldstein, while it looks safe and is very safe for the Liberals, if these polls match the final result then there will be one or two Goldsteins.
I’m still expecting the result to be closer than these poll numbers, but looking at APEC which has been a big win for Rudd, and with talk of increased Interest Rates I just can’t see Howard making any in roads, and I have some very bad news for Liberal supporters.
My Mum hates Politics and takes no interest what so ever, guess what she is fully aware of the cost of APEC and the Horse Flu caused in part by Howard softening Quarantine laws.
Point being even the totally disinterested are now baying for Howard’s head
Prediction for Nielsen ALP 58-Lib 42
Anybody care to comment on the Nat’s position in Northern NSW? How much impact will the Clarence River dam have?
309, Eh?????
Can the ALP go any higher there, they seem to be at a pretty high water mark.
Yes Glen, the proliferation of media politics is an interesting phenomenon. I think it was mastered under Keating, and Howard built on it, 1 in 10 public servants are now media advisors/minders/spin doctors, call them what you will.
The benefits of incumbency are great in driving, and shaping the news agenda. However, the news is always uncontrollable, and subvertable by less powerful interest groups, such as unions and oppositions.
The Howard government appears to have ticked off a wide range of interest groups. This is evident in the media coverage of the government. Dont know where the leadership speculation has come from, but its certainly not helping the incumbent.
Winston@312
Lateline is influential because it sets the news agenda for the next day.
BMW @ 313
I remember seeing that BBC graphic whilst sitting in a Hong Kong bar, it was a cracker! The way the blue would explode and come down red! Re:
Not hearing from your local MP, here in Deakin, we haven’t heard a thing from the libs either, maybe they are keeping their powder dry for either the campaign or something new! It doesn’t help that our local paper has not arrived for the past 3 weeks. But after a mid year flurry from the ALP, nothing from them either. Last election we kept all of the advertsing material and by the end had a pile 15cm high.
Maybe this time there should be Pollbludger advertsing material weigh in! Counted from the date the election is called.
Something to do with the taste of hot steel, painful death for a certain king etc. I think?
Greensborough, a medieaval reference to the ‘taste of hot steel up you”
Greensborough , refer in Wikipedia to Edward ii not 11
It was actually a reference to Cpl Jones in “Dads Army”.
Cheers.
I agree with 298 blackburnpseph. Name calling is used when the arguments are weak. There is really no need for it.
RE 305
Edward the second died after being sodomised with a red hot poker.
But I actually like the corporal Jones analogy better….
cynic @256
that is more subtle than anything I came up with. I had Big Fat … and well it went downhill from there
Simon post 316: Ask can the ALP go higher in Victoria?
Yes, they could lets remember that back in the Hawke/Keating days the ALP held at varies times the following now Liberal held seats.
Aston 1987,
Lt Trobe 1987,
Deakin 1983,
Dunkley 1993,
McEwen 1993,
Flinders 1983,
McMillian 2001,
I accept people vote differently at Federal and State Elections but with people did vote the same as they have for Brack then the ALP could win
Lt Trobe, Deakin, Dunkley, McEwen, Corrangamitte
with the following being close
Aston, Higgins, Flinders, Casey, Goldstein
I’ve often heard the talk back radio jocs lead off their shows with something that was on Lateline. They never mention Lateline of coarse and pretend they thought of it themselves but nevertheless their questions to the audience is almost a carbon copy of Lateline’s questioning. I think it’s more influential than many people assume.
The years next to the seat names were the last time the ALP won them.
Aston 1987,
Lt Trobe 1987,
Deakin 1983,
Dunkley 1993,
McEwen 1993,
Flinders 1983,
McMillian 2001,
Here in WA unfortunately is that poisonous right wing rag The West Australian which sets the agenda for the day
It actually makes the GG look like The Times.
Polls on Benelong and how safe Howard is?
I don’t think one has been taken since his meeting with the Exclusive Brethren and disclosures about the massive finanial backing they gave him in his own seat and other seats.
I’d say many would be uncomfortable with his close association with this extremist sect. Those who voted for him in 2004 would not be aware of his backers.
“JOHN Howard has held a private meeting with the most senior leaders of the Exclusive Brethren, including a man under investigation by police over his massive spending on the Prime Minister’s 2004 election campaign”
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2007/08/21/1187462266517.html?from=top5
“Keep Australia in safe hands, Keep Howard Prime Minister”
This from a secretive organisation, it is not a good look.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/brethren-linked-to-howard-campaign/2005/09/15/1126750082584.html
I totally agree but I think we should be allowed to make an exception for Downer. He’s just too, too funny to take seriously. As I’ve said many times I think he should get his own TV comedy sitcom after he leaves politics. Or maybe a regular segment on Kath and Kim.
I finally got up my courage to bet on Bennelong and it is closed??
I second the motion, and reserve my right to speak.
I also reserve my right to insult Howard, Costello, Downer etc.
Sure I’m a biased Labor supporter, and very proud of it too!
To be serious for a moment about the name calling. While I don’t really like people calling our Pollies names, what bothers me more is the personal attacks some people make on some of the posters. How many times have I been accused of being a Communist and a Terrorist just because I no longer support Howard and now support Rudd. It’s pathetic and childish the way you get insulted sometimes.
The election with Howard as Lib leader has been over for some time. In my view since before Rudd became Labor leader.
I would have supported Beazley in December 2006.I was very hesistant to support a change based on the ‘times up’ syndrome ( necessary but not sufficient) plus the fact that Beazley was a safe,talented, far ahead in the polls and deserving alternative.Given the Latham experiment, I couldn’t accept the idea that once again we should contemplate embracing an alternative leader without a couple of decades in the public eye and at least some years of Cabinet Office.
Well, I was wrong. Rudd overcame the experience (read credibility) test,with the added advantage of being fresh and safe.He has taken Labor’s support to another level far above either Gough or Hawke at their zenith and not seen since the days of John Curtin in WWII.
Governments change in Australia ( when there’s not a world crisis) when both the Government is aging and the Opposition ( read Opposition Leader) is seen to be credible.
I feel very sorry for Costello. Were I the Libs I’d still make the change but it’s much too late to attain a smooth transition.
When the history is written the relevant date will be 1966!
In 1961, at 67 and after 12 years as PM, Menzies squeaked through against the then 65 yo Arthur Calwell.In 1963 Menzies was 69 ,Calwell 67. Labor’s Deputy Leader Gough Whitlam begged Calwell to retire after the 1964 Senate election when he was 68 and Menzies 70. Calwell refused and lead Labor into its worst ever defeat in December,1966 against Harold Holt who having served as Deputy Liberal Leader for 10 years and Treasurer for 8 ( sound familiar?) had finally replaced Menzies in January 1966.
Gough had argued whoever made the transition first would have the advantage. He was right. A transition from Calwell to Whitlam might have worked in 1965.
Costello’s chances of best revitalising the Coalition was in mid 2006. He is a much diminished figure now.
Some unbiased Matt Price from Mumble today . Whereas the Liberals routinely attract a healthy mix of hardened political professionals and relatively artless amateurs …, Labor is left to drown in its nasty, narrow, cloistered, limiting, repulsive, infested, depressing and ultimately suffocating union gene pool.
Matt is a not so sly Liberal hack with a have a beer carn the dockers disguise. IMHO.
“It’s the Matt Prices of the media that are readable, and carry more influence.”
Gimmie a break.
Matt Price has been polishing Howard’s piles in his columns for years. If he’s now had a change of heart, it is only because the polls now confirm that Howard is so on the nose that his defeat is inevitable, and ol’ Matty can’t be seen to be wrong, now can he?
Albert F
were camels involved ?
Re: Kruddy.
I use it affectionately, I don’t think it is a term of abuse. JHo is kinda cute too. K. Rudd, and then Ruddy – it is not a big stretch.
I don’t take with using ‘the rodent’.
yeah. Dolly is Dolly… it’s not an insult – it’s about the only thing that humanises him.
Matt Price is sort of a bellwether journalist… one of the first this year to sniff the winds of change… he protects his own hide well.
Pity Amanda Vanstone if Howard loses the election. She’ll have to come back from her tax payer funded Roman holiday and find a real job.
Looking forward to Alan Ramsey tomorrow in the Fairfax papers, one journalist you’d never accuse of being pro Howard.
Sideline at 300 and ifonly at 213, those stats are an effect, not the cause. You cannot predict future results on these as there were different causes. To do so is to state that there WILL be a Tampa or 9/11 event happening to justify your predictions AND the press WILL highlight these points AND the media WILL support Howard.
Based upon these arguments I could just as effectively argue that Howard will admit he is a closet gay and a communist. It is just pure conjecture. We cannot accurately predict what the stats will be other than on the current trends and I am sure the stats people here will support this.
Howard had some significant events go his way, there are equal odds (or arguably better) that future events will be in Rudd’s favour ( i.e. any terrorist event on Aussie terror would probably be largely attributed to Howard for his Iraq involvement) .
Cheers,
Tom
barbara @ 333
try betfair.com – you can still get $2.26 for Bennelong. Once the rudd wave hits it will be seen as very good odds.
I went to the local markets here in south-west France this morning and what the locals were speculating about (in Alexandre Downer’s best French) was, if John Howard steps down in favour of Peter Costello, would Peter and Tanya move into Kirribilli for 8 weeks or so, and, more to the point, would they invite John and Janette over for dinner?
Cynic @ 340
No camels – but that has trigged a metal image that will be tricky to erase.
In case others are bemused cynic and I are trying to decode the acromyn of “BFAC” for Joe Hockey.
#338 El Duce, I think you`ll find those comments were penned by Matt Price 2 or 3 years ago. I think the point being made was that he`s changed his tune a little since then. Still pretty bloody funny in retrospect though.
William
The senate poll is from very large samples, about 14,000 all up.
I think it shows that people want to restore the senate as a house of review.
Seems to show that Boswell will miss out on QLD and Bartlett is still in with a chance.
Would be good to see the democrats stay in, when they held the balance they were a good party of review until they went off the rails. But parties have been punished heavily before for their failings and still maanged to come back.
Peter of Scarpat
I bet the Frogs are real impressed that Downer speaks their native tongue despite the fact that he thinks they’re a bunch of surrender monkeys.
not cuddly? could also be a… crack? just guessing
Paul K, They said that they thought a downer in English meant a depressant – I said that they were right…
Senate poll also shows the libs will lose 3 or 4 seats, Greens to pick up 3 and Democrats 1?
Qld is the most fascinating, the joint ticket could work aganist the libs.
Maybe if the Libs ever get back in power post Howard they will be able to crown Lord Downer our Ambassador to France? Something for the Frogs to look forward to.
I wonder what the Hon. Member for Mayo was thinking in criciticing the Opposition leader for speaking in Mandarin to the Chinese visitors at APEC ? What does that gain for the Coalition’s election campaign ?
For a foreign minister well versed in diplomacy and tact, he seems to be falling apart at the seams.
Potentially embarressing himself and the Australian Government in the presence of leaders from a country Australia is hoping to develop a significant trade partnership with is both tacky and senseless.
Then again, the insistence on attacking the Opposition leader on things that the electorate don’t particularly care about, ’strippergate’ for example, makes no sense either. It does little more than reinforce the notion that the Coalition have nothing important to say about anything.
I think the Hon. member for Mayo is, to put it bluntly in Australian terms, very ‘p…… off’ at the moment and won’t be sending any Christmas cards to Messrs Crosby and Textor this year. That dosen’t make much sense either: why dosen’t he just focus on getting council approval for developing a vineyard in the Adelaide hills: a forced retirement awaits him.
Pauk K, In spite of their long history, what have the French ever done to deserve that ???
As was stated before, all journalists have their preconceptions in regard to political parties. Some are just better at trying to follow professional journalistic practice, and critique both sides of an argument, in the case of pluralist democracy.
I have no doubt in regard to Matt Price’s RW bent, but it is clear he follows these loose guidelines better than the likes of Akerman and Albrechsten.
Albert F @347
I have to put the $ in which takes a while, I found Sportingbet has $2.60!!
paul k
what did the french ever do to us- i mean dolly in a foreign country could be qute dangerous
pass the butter could take on all manner of connotations
tried various combos re BFAC(s?)
most unrepeatable
Peter of Scarpat
If they’re tough enough to eat snails and frog legs, they’re tough enough to take our good Lord Downer. And I’m sure he’ll be able to correct their pronunciation of the French language.
I think Price is pretty centrist. He likes taking the piss, and showing up the hipocrisy of both sides. He jumped on the Howard is doomed bandwagon pretty early on, even pre-budget from memory.
Boll, yes it was feb 2006, it was a very revealing, his view of the Labour Party in this article shows a deeply prejudiced mindset, which he usually thinly disguises.
God night everyone and remember, “Don’t Panic!”
Paul K, I am sure that Alexander would go down a treat in this part of the country… in rugby shorts, boots and and tights
Just got home.Read leader only. FROUT!
The international news in Britain and the USA on APEC is about a riff between Bush and South Korea over North Korea. Looks like Bush isn’t having much fun with APEC.
By Paul Wiseman, USA TODAY
SYDNEY — President Bush had an awkward exchange over peace on the Korean peninsula with one of his prickliest allies: South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun. The exchange occurred on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Sydney, Friday.
Downer says he finished his French course in 2 months and it took Rudd 2 years to learn Chinese trying to suggest that Rudd was a bit slow. If the sum total of Downer’s French learning is a 2 month then he doesn’t speak French. Rudd impressed my wife [Chinese] and no doubt picked up his real skill whilst in China.
Matt Price has shown a real personal dislike of Rudd and has for the most part been incredculous at Rudd’s popularity.
The first Chaser stunt has made the news here in France
Paul K, re the Chaser stunt on le Figaro site, please pass the link on to Alexandre
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/20070907.WWW000000423_un_faux_ben_laden_perce_le_mur_dacier_de_sydney.html
Shane 337: agree. These are extraordinary numbers from Rudd as ALP leader, so we shouldn’t be assuming ordinary (ie normal) trends for the forthcoming election.
But I can’t agree with you on Beazley. Rightly or wrongly, I think too many swinging voters had a preconception of Beazley as not a winner and not up to the job of PM. I don’t think Beazley would have been able to sustain a large enough lead in the polls in 2007 to withstand an election campaign that Howard probably would have won.
I don’t feel sorry for Costello. He’s had numerous opportunities to challenge Howard for the leadership and declined to contest. What’s the saying? You aren’t given power, you have to take it. Unlike Keating, Costello wasn’t prepared to do what it takes to take power.
BTW fellow pollbludgers, this is Shane Easson, the former Chief of Staff to former NSW Premier Barrie Unsworth and twin brother of Michael Easson.
BxTom 346: I take your point re cause versus effect on past polling performance of the ALP. But in my post #300 I was merely looking at previous poll movements to get a handle on what would be possible in the next 2 months, rather than what is likely to happen.
Strap yourself in folks. The next couple of months is going to be a great ride for political junkies!
Does anyone South Oz or other have the faintest idea why Mike Rann is so dragging the chain on water solutions for our parched State?
Any chance that the water thing will be a Rudd announcement, campaign wise?
Peter of Scarpat
I reckon he’ll love it, especially the bits about how the impregnable fortress with 5500 police and 160 million dollars worth of security couldn’t stop some comedians dressed like Osama. I’m sure he’ll fire off a letter to the French President.
Yeah but what happens to all us sad junkies after the election. Going to be some serious with-drawl symptoms.
Let’s hope the French Government employs some good interpreters of pigeon french…
Tom.
Inside gossip from Michelle Grattan:
“A fortnight ago key prime ministerial confidant Grahame Morris indicated to Liberal powerbroker and Costello ally Michael Kroger that Mr Howard would definitely not stand down before the election.
Mr Morris told Mr Kroger in one of their regular conversations that Mr Howard was “full of beans” and thought he had a good campaign ready to go when the election was called. But one Liberal source yesterday claimed “no one believes in the party that he can turn it around”.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pressure-mounts-on-pm/2007/09/07/1188783497256.html?page=2
Political junkies get fed every three years – John Howard has absolutely nothing to look forward to.
And the English translation…
http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lefigaro.fr%2Finternational%2F20070907.WWW000000423_un_faux_ben_laden_perce_le_mur_dacier_de_sydney.html&langpair=fr%7Cen&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&prev=%2Flanguage_tools
Anybody read the Annabel Crabb article in Friday’s SMH and not wet themselves laughing.
Now I know Howard’s history.
Frank #379, I just read the Google translation of the le Figaro article – sounds like a translation by Alexander…
Latest US job figures are out and they are not good. More talk about a doming recession in the USA. Not sure if it will have any effect on international interest rates?
# 375 paul k
‘Yeah but what happens to all us sad junkies after the election. Going to be some serious with-drawl symptoms’.
Paul should know that at least Labor SA could find itself in serious bother. Chris Pyne, who is busy organising the State Lib Opposition, will have even more time to spend on this project.
So, lots to go on with.
Sorry that should be ” a coming recession ” and not ” a doming recession”
October 27th. No doubt. 7 week campaign.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22382270-601,00.html
Somehow I think it won’t happen as Rugby Wold Cup Finals are in that period and if Australia make the finals and win the Cup, Howard will want to be there to welcome the victors home etc.
Shanahan predicting the election will be called next Wednesday, but with parliament sitting until Friday to get the AEC state referendum bills through.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22382270-601,00.html
But if the writs are issued on the Friday, will any royal assent of any new legislation be suspended due to the caretaker conventions ?
This is especially so if the legislation isn’t passed till late Thursday, and the legislation needs to be signed off by the GG before it can become law.
VERY risky move.
No way Frank. The election has to be called. Time is up. There is no better date.
October 20th – The PM will want a longer campaign, especially with the footy finals soaking media coveage.
November 3rd – Long weekend before the Melbourne Cup. Just before the Reserve bank meets, leading to negative speculation.
November 10th – Reserve bank may have announced changes to monetary policy.
November 17th (onwards) – too late. Speculation will paralyse the country.
Shanahan says the writs wouldn’t be issued until Friday, which would make it possible for the governors to hold the senate writs open for a couple of weeks, thus keeping the electoral role open!
If I was a state premier I would be giving my govenor some very strongly worded advice.
I meant the federal AEC State Referenda Bills, as they have to be given royal assent by the Governor General before being made law.
http://www.australianpolitics.com/constitution/text/58.shtml
I wonder if the dissolving of Parliament may prevent the legislation becoming law.
Re David @ 302
Sorry been out.
Look mate… I have obviously triggered a nerve and if it helps I apologise. But as you might well be aware some things do not have to be black and white to be devoid of colour. So it is with ‘fascism’: it is not (as I believe) a definitive term that has distinctive boundaries, and in fact has many variants… and I agree ours is not a totalitarian state… but I might throw a few things your way and you can set me straight if I’m wrong.
Let’s take a few essentials from fascism…
Nationalism will do for a start. ie Defining a nation through ethnicity, race or culture. Howard’s mantra has long been thus. The Cronulla riots spring to mind… the Muslim mistrust that has been fostered… to maintain power via fear “We will decide who comes…etc etc
Another would be Authoritarianism eg 1) ie an erosion of civil liberties and freedom. The sedition laws are a case in point. The Attorney Generals efforts to re-write the censorship laws in regard to books and film… another. The blatant stone walling of FOI, another still. eg 2.) ie The power to govern without approval of the people… Dare I mention the war in Iraq? May I also allude to the rushing of 500 page bills through parliament without proper scrutiny… or the lack of Senate committees…. (Not black and white but certainly devoid of colour)
Or Militarianism… we’re not there ‘yet’ (tongue in cheek) but in the ambiguity of the moment … let’s begin with Peter Reith’s military intervention of the dockyards… a city cordoned off like Sydney is as present… our ‘defense’ force used so frequently in the region with subtle ideological strings… Guantanamo… prisoner rendition… how about armed guards, barbed wire and solitary confinement for asylum seekers?… Perhaps an island fortress for their processing… a larger and politicised AFP… detention without trial (in orange jumpsuit with chains no less)… relentless pursuit of whistleblowers… criminal charges against the press… How about troops being called into the NT? Not militarianism but y’know you have to start somewhere….
let’s look at liberalism (the antithesis of fascism)… limitation on the power of government, freedom of speech, separation of powers and adherence to the rule of law through transparent governance… How is Petro Georgiou being treated these days by the way?
I don’t know about you but Andrew Wilke might agree with some of my thoughts , so might the family of Merve Jenkins… or maybe the odd Muslim with a bunch of kids… perhaps its something about neocon ideology wrapped up in a pretty bow that stinks… you tell me and I’ll give you a non-core promise never to call them fascist again! lol
Shanahan is suggesting Howard will simply announce the election date on Wednesday, but not go to the govenor general until Friday.
But there is still the problem of getting assent if the legislation is passed on late Thursday night – I don’t think the GG would appreciate being pressured to give assent urgently for what basically is political legislation, as opposed to anything due to war etc, if you get my mangled drift.
BFAC – big fat awful …
I thought this happened often. Don’t they just get the govenor general’s deputy to give the assent if the GG is elsewhere (i.e. polishing his saber).
Sideline Eye says:
“BTW fellow pollbludgers, this is Shane Easson, the former Chief of Staff to former NSW Premier Barrie Unsworth…”
Hope you weren’t the bloke who picked-out his cardigans for him.
Sorry. My attempt at humour.
Pleased to meet you and Welcome.
(BTW It’s actually not that stupid a comment. I did know-Biblically and otherwise-one of John Winston’s early minders. Poor woman had to pick out the old coot’s ties for him before they shoved him in front of a camera as hit taste left something to be desired). AAAh. The old days………….
Actually I think once the writs are issued everything legislatively stops as I believe you can’t seperate the writs, unless Howard decides to only hold a HoR election on one date and delay the half senate election till a later date.
I’m pretty sure those who are familiar on such constitutional matters like Adam etc may wish to comment on this.
I was under the impression that once the writs were issued the only way something could be done would be if the Opportsition agreed, gee could be Howard’s wedgie attempt at Rudd.
That’s what I thought, hence the reason why the bills won’t be law in time for the Election.
Hmm, no Democrats in the ACT.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22382056-11949,00.html
Evan
One thing I’ll say for JWH. His taste in ties is infinitely better than Ruddie or Costello’s. (Sometimes I wonder if Pete has more than 3 ties)
I reckon the conservative commentators have a point about “Howard Haters”. I don’t think most people hate Howard. But nor do they love him. They have sort of regarded him as as necessary evil.
But with the advent of Rudd, Howard is a necessary evil who’s no longer necessary!
Liked Beasley’s response to the drovers dog question that he got the other night. Had the look of a man quite content to pursue a serious diplomatic role in either New York or Washington under a Rudd Labor government. Not a bad second prize really.
Well JWH may not yet be officially gawn, but if I was a bookie, I’d be real nervous about taking too much exposure on Labor winning. This time its not a fat lady, but a ghostly Pavarotti who reminds us what singing truly is. Memo: Must remember Pavarotti arias cd for election night party.
Because these last few days look to have finished Howard. He’s lost that crucial few percent of voters who take no real interest in politics but go with personality nuances like whether they are likely to win or lose. As for the industrial relations policy with the name that can’t be mentioned, I can see it being added to the Politics 101 syllabus, perhaps under the heading ‘How to alienate the constituency.’ For some reason I keep wanting to type the word ‘GAWN’.
New thread open, this one closed.