Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has announced his intention to retire as of Thursday. He will hand the reins to long-established heir presumptive Anna Bligh, who will follow Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to become Australia’s third female premier. This means a by-election looms in Beattie’s seat of Brisbane Central. While this is hard to get excited about (it is all but certain that the Liberals will not field a candidate), it’s interesting to note that Beattie’s margin fell from 25.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent in 2004 and then to 14.8 per cent in 2006. Of greater interest is the symbolism involved in two state premiers recently deciding to quit while at the top of their game, and the contrast presented by the present incumbent of The Lodge.
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446 Comments
This will frustrate Howards attack on the State ALP. The Q’ld state govt was likely to be a big target in the campain. How he will have to deal with a new leader in a Honeymoon period.
Not to mention the emphasis on the folly of Howard clinging to power long after his use-by date.
I don’t think it really channges much. Rudd can point out that the federal government is even paying for a referendum to be held in a council that ISN’T being amalgamated, surely a waste of money.
Beattie must be just about the canniest and most effective politician we have had in Australia since Menzies. He could even apologise for governmental and internal party behaviour bordering on the corrupt in a manner that actually won him support rather than lost it!
We probably won’t see his like again for quite a while.
The last newspoll had state labor on 51% primary vote in Qld. The honeymoon with Anna Bligh will increase this.
Can only help Labor in Qld.
This woman is going to be as hopeless as Carmen or Joan.
Good luck to him. He seems a very decent man, very personable and he clearly knows the power of quitting while you’re ahead.
Why do you think that?
The word “personable” cracks me up, mainly because it is the word David Letterman uses to describe Paris Hilton.
“This woman” ??? will shred Flegg and Seeney.
Why were Carmen and Joan even brought up? Because they’re women that have been Premiers?
Why Brumby became Premier we didn’t get people saying… He’s going to be as hopeless as (*inster name of previous male Premiers*) just because they were men.
I love it how everyone always says Beattie is ‘on the nose’ yet his polling figures are through the roof.
Excellent move on Beattie’s part, and a job well done. his departure after nine years contrasts nicely with JWH’s ‘eleven years and past it’ look.
While JWH could have gone at Beattie with a vengeance he’ll have to be very careful attacking Bligh, a much-younger-than-he-is woman, brand new to the job.
If he does attack her he might get another lesson in ‘Fair Go’ ….
in the Federal sphere this does not run well for Howard. The implication that he is part of an old Government, and should have retired last year while on top is definitely there after Carr, Bracks and Beattie.
However, will this make him more likely to retire now? No – but I guess he already ruled that out earlier today. More interestingly will this give those within the Lib Party more ground to force a challenge or enforce a tap on the shoulder for the PM? Don’t know, but really doesn’t look good with him still holding on, and on, and on…
The other factor to note, of course, is that it will be difficult for the State Opposition to attack the govt because there will most probably be sympathy toward Bligh when things get worse (like the dam levels at Wivenhoe) – instead of anger, you’ll just as likely see a reaction of “oh, poor Anna, it’s not her fault but she has to deal with the mess”
Another thought on the federal sphere, any APEC outcomes other than the revelation of the NSW Police force’s hatred of accountants, will now be quickly forgotton in the media. Otherwise climate change compact, whether good or bad, probably would have run another couple of days, but now Beattie and the Fed Lib leadership questions will simply dominate the media
CTEP: Thanks, I hate comments like the one ruawake said. Whether someone is male or female, white or not, it total BS. Anna got there because she has been that Deputy Premier for 2 years, and has been in ministerial positions since 98.
Hey Will, read the thread. I was quoting Rupert.
I think it will be an interesting week in the qld ALP party room. While Beattie has anointed Bligh she is still from the Left in what is probably the state with the most divided factional system.
I don’t believe that the Right will just let her have premier without a fight, no matter what Beattie wants.
Attacking women in politics is a great game of long tradition and standing. And as Labor is brought in to fix up coalition failures, the women Labor premiers seem always to have to clean up the boys mess. Their less than spectacular re-election record probably has a lot more to do with this than it has to do with their quality in the jobs.
Sorry ruawake, it’s late in the day. Too much fun.
The tap on the shoulder thing won’t work with Mr. Howard. If he wants to stay – he will stay. If they tap him and politely suggest he leaves… and he politely declines… what then? “Mr. Howard – you will leave or else!” Or else what? A leadership challenge – a spill – a couple of days spent in speculating, nasty backstabby comments in the media – a party room vote and _then_ a new leader or Howard back again. And _then_ an election campaign?
This would make the federal Liberal Party look more like the Heaven’s Gate… images of cabinet arranged on bunkbeds in their brand new, white, nike sneakers. Or to press the poor taste one point further… it would become known as the Johnstown Massacre… “pass the Kool-Aid Tony…me old sunshine…”
the women Labor premiers seem always to have to clean up the boys mess.
That’s the truth. The girls get to clean up after the boys have stuffed up.
I think I can almost forgive Mr Beattie for the amalgamations mess now. Did he have this in mind all the while, to retire pre Federal election and let the air out of the amalgamation balloon ?
Clever man Mr Beattie, salute !!
That makes three State Labor Premiers that have retired on top of their game (Carr/Bracks/Beattie). Sure he made some errors, but who hasn’t. Gallup had to retire, but Carpenter made the transition work. Wonder if Rann is thinking about pulling the pin too.
Meantime, the air has been let out of the Amalgamations issue to an extent in Queensland and the Coalition will have less mud to toss around re the State Government.
Time for a cup of tea and a good book Mr Beattie : 9/10 overall.
Beattie has been one of the greats here in BrisVegas – never afraid to tell it like it is, admit a mistake and then fix the damn thing. Now if we can get federal guys to do the same.
As for Anna Bligh, she will be fine – Beattie’s apprentice for quite a while so knows how to govern.
What this means for Labor federally is a double edged sword however. We go to a comparatively little known Bligh at state level and ask to switch to Rudd federally. Too much of a change thing for Qlders to deal with? Maybe the scare campaign of inexperience will gain some traction for the Coalition over the coming weeks.
Anna Bligh is an extremely competent politician, she will run rings around the opposition, she is a great performer in parliament.
Premier “Teflon” Pete has given her the treasury and infrastructure jobs which she has handled well. She will be a great Premier.
Bligh is a feral socialist left-winger, in the style of Kirner and Lawrence.
The QLD ALP will mutiny before the next State election.
Oh and on the Howard link, Howard just needs to come out and say the state premiers work really hard on policy and service delivery, two things that have never bothered a liberal pm!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks for your contribution Rupert.
“The other factor to note, of course, is that it will be difficult for the State Opposition to attack the govt because there will most probably be sympathy toward Bligh when things get worse (like the dam levels at Wivenhoe) – instead of anger, you’ll just as likely see a reaction of “oh, poor Anna, it’s not her fault but she has to deal with the messâ€
Don’t remember there being much “Poor Joan Kirner” in 1992….
I don’t think the current situation for the ALP and the government is Queensland is exactly comparable to the situation in Victoria in 1992…
If you want a more appropriate comparison, look at how Iemma managed to run away successfully from the Carr legacy and win this year’s election.
Anna Bligh’s gender has nought to do with her capacity to do a good job as a State Premier. That kind of cheap shot typifies how backward some people’s thinking is. This is 2007, not 1907.
Wake up Rupert, and, by the way, Kirner and Lawrence were not as “hopeless” as the future of politics of this country if people like you try to drag us back to the glass ceiling.
Just ignore him, don’t give his views any air.
Pete and Heather had dinner with Kevin and Therese last night, I wonder what advice Pete had for Kevin?
Oh to be a fly on the wall.
How feral, that comment says more about you Rupert than it does about Anna Bligh.
raise your glasses to the greatest Premier that Australia has ever seen,
And I am not even a Queenslander,
The only bone I have to pick with Peter Beatie is that he wont be entering Federal politics,
Australia would benefit greatly if we had a Beatie Treasurer
Can you elaborate how exaclty how it is divided?
Will be honestly sorry to see Beattie go, mainly for the fact that I thought everything he said he really did mean (probably not true, but shows how good he was). Plus I ran into him at the bottle shop once and we drink the same beer…endearing quality indeed
On the bright side, I may very well be living in the Premier’s electorate AND the Prime Ministers electorate if Bligh and Rudd get up
Grooski at #22 you may be right…things like this may play right into the Federal Libs “lack of experience” argument…Bligh, Brumby, Carpenter, Rudd….they’ll say you need us federally to prevent this bunch of rookies destroying the country.
“News diary
The 7.30 Report: Host Kerry O’Brien talks to Prime Minister John Howard and Qld Premier Peter Beattie about their futures.”
From ABC News website. should be interesting or may be not.
Howard: i am not going anywhere
Beattie: I’ll have some time off, may be join Bracksie in East Timor
May be howard can become the next Ambassador to Iraq, given that it is such an important place for Australia, apparently. I am sure Kevin wouild approve that posting (so would costello, probably)
Tin Tin strikes again; how it’s done…
Tuckey scoffs a bottle of Bundy & heads for the party room;
Amalgamtion neutralised…
PB runs Rudd Inc in Q or ACT? Is Shergold calling the Removalists too?
BRILLIANT SUGGESTION!
Bligh will be elected leader unopposed, the deal has already been done, this is how things are done in a real political party.
Who will be deputy?
I guess the Right will want the treasurer position and have that person anointed as the deputy (that would be the deal to allow Anna to become Premier). I’m not sure who can take that on, since I’m down here in Vic.
I would have thought the Opposition {Rupert} were hardly in a position to talk about problems within the ALP in Queensland given their situation at present, even Seeney can’t remember what they stand for anymore.
Oh, just reread my post, it sounds like I would do it. Far from that! I meant I don’t know who is in the QLD parliament since I live here in Vic.
It is the QLD ALP that has deep reservations about Bligh.
It’s a lesson to the Libs in renewal really.
Two successful Labor State Premiers have now quit while at the top of their game in recent months, leaving their successors a chance to renew their parties and Governments and, hopefully, to set themsleves-up for the next State elections.
Contrast this with the Federal Libs: Howard clutching the Prime Ministership to his chest like the dusty, desiccated old mummy from movies of that name.
He wanders through the halls of power, followed by the stench of decay and a cloud of flies, dragging bits of rotted bandage after him. And no-one in the Libs has the balls to put a stake through him (or whatever it is they do to put-down mummies).
Our greatest PM ever eh? He ought to change his name to Imhotep and bugger-off back to Hamunaptra.
I think this is good for Howard. An organisation loses enough people it sometimes values the ones it has left… also, say what you will, but some (crazy) people in QLD may be threatened by a younger woman running their state.
Also, Beattie had the common touch, QLD Labor will probably be worse off in the polls without him.
From Victoria, I really liked Beattie … but I also like Bligh, so damn you QLD for having better politicians (you’ve also got Bartlett and Joyce!)
I wonder if Beattie’s one-hour chat with Rudd last night was about the timing of his announcement, whether he wanted Rudd’s view on whether he should step down now or wait till after the election. I’m sure RUdd would have agreed that now was perfect timing, partly because of the amalgamations issue, and partly because of the contrast with Howard.
I do agree, though, with someone else here, who suggested the Libs might accuse Bligh of “inexperience”, and argue that, therefore, leadership stability needs to be maintained at the Federal level.
I think Rudd’s cameo at APEC will stop a lot of people from thinking that HE’S too inexperienced to lead. He certainly looked like a world leader to me. I think foreign affairs will come easily to him, as he’s trained in it. Rudd’s real challenges will be on things like running the economy.
Comparing Bligh to Lawrence and Kirner is pretty pointless. They both took over governments which were clearly already terminal, and had very little hope of turning things around, although Lawrence did a pretty good job of doing so. Bligh inherits a government on top in the polls and facing a totally hopeless opposition. With Beattie and his accumulated baggage gone, she should get a decent honeymoon which can only help Rudd, and then she can call an election next year and become the first woman to win a state election.
Is there any suggestion that Beattie might be about to go federal at the last minute? I doubt Rudd would welcome that, but who knows?
Rupert #24 and #43 is so wrong it’s laughable. I’ve seen her address business functions for the biotechnology industry a number of times and she has them completely eating out of her hand. And whatever else the Qld ALP is (I can think of a number of things), it is not completely stupid. She’s a winner, that one.
#44 Evan,the flies, the rotted bandages. If you`ve got any artistic talent there must be a cartoon in that beautiful imagery!
Peter was in good form in his press conference. His statement “Governments must renew or die, parties must renew or die” seemed to be aimed directly at Howard.
I wonder if Beattie even timed his announcement until just after all the Libs had gone on record saying Howard will continue on to the election. Effectively making the point the Libs have choosen not to renew.
Meanwhile in a parellel unverse – PM Costello, after a year in the job, has commited to signing Kyoto, apoligised to the stolen generation, called for a new process for a Republic, implemented a staged withdrawal from Iraq and has accepted most of the ALP changes to work choices. Trailing slightly in the polls the bookies have him as a warm favorite to win the election.
Antinio, the economy basically runs itself.
Howard’s surfed the wave. He hasn’t created it.
Anna Bligh taking over from Peter Beattie is not like the poisoned chalice that Carmen Lawrence and especially Joan Kirner were given. From here in the south, Anna Bligh seems smart and in tune and not likely to leave a trail of political wreckage like Carmen L. Joan K. left economic wreckage, but her political achievement was that the Victorian ALP through he dogged and dare I say gutsy leadership were not totally wiped out in 1992. The ascendancy of Anna Bligh may lead to conservative leadership renewal in Qld as well. Any likelihood that she would go to the polls in the next 6 months or so to get her own mandate?
As others have said, some know when to go, and some don’t ….
So who will be our next governor general? Bob Hawke, Steve Bracks or Peter Beattie?
It has only been 12 months since the last Qld election, the Libs have an outstanding 8 seats.
Why should Bligh think about an election? She has two years and no upper house.
Queensland has come a long way since sir Joh, until his death i was a friend of Ray Whitrod– ex commissioner of commonwealth police, New Guinea police and Queensland police, Ray was one of the straightest most honest men i had ever met, he resigned rather than tolerate the corrupt cops Joh insisted he accept— especially as his assistant commissioner, his good name was smeared and he came back to Adelaide to retire, we celebrated loud and long when the royal commission over there cleared his name and validated his stance, we used to chat for ages and he told many a story about Joh and the Queensland corruption, as i said Queensland has come a long way.
after Ray came back to Adelaide he was convinced by two mothers of murdered children who had helped each other through their grief to help them start up the very first victim support group in the world, along with Bob Whitington {who had become a father figure to one of the mums} Bob was the senior crime reporter for the Advertiser at the time—well thats my bit of trivia for the day.
Have we still got a GG….thought Howie took over all his functions.
Evan @ 50.
The economy doesn’t run itself, it has to be managed. Admittedly, it is much easier to run when times are good.
And we are now in a situation, which we haven’t had in my poltical memory when the economy, and it’s handling it not at centre stage. Possibly due to the world economy, possibly due to P. Costello.
Others no doubt will shoot me down, but there have been some great economic successes of the Howard government, introduction of the GST, and the shepherding through the Asian economic crisis of 97 – 98.
Might has well be Howard. He’d been doing the GGs work for years now anyway.
PeterBeattie, beautiful timing. What`s known in rugby league these days as a try assist.
Just to follow on from Simon`s comments on the previous thread re.portlandbet. As he mentioned, Labor favourites to gain 15 seats, coalition 0. No recent change, but significantly 17 coalition seats where they remain favourites but Labor at less than $2.50. Another 7 have Labor between 2fiddy and 3 bucks.
re.the next GG Chris B (not my brother are you?) just to up the ante in the culture wars, it`s got to be PK!?
Albert F @ 49
You left out the most relevant part of your alternative universe. Such a reversal of policy would split the Liberals asunder and I would be more optimistic about aruddslide than I am now. I don’t think such wet policies would help Costello.
Blackburnpseph: I agree that Bligh is in a completely different position to Kirner and Lawrence. For one thing, she hasn’t been shoe-horned into the job to take the fall for the mismanagement of her predecessors.
If you want a parallel, think present day Federal Libs.
They’re clearly an on-the-nose Government whose time has come. The difference, of course, is that no-one in the Federal Liberal Party has the guts to topple Howard and take the fall.
Says it all, really. Both Joan and Carmen had more courage in their little fingers than Tip has in his entire body. Both were prepared to step-up to the plate when the Government was on a hiding to nothing and take the job, knowing full-well they’s be tossed-out.
Tip, on the other hand, just sits on his arse bitching to all who’ll listen about how he “wuz robbed” of his chance at the top job.
Tosser.
When will the rodent get the message? 10 years in the top job is long enough. Howard of course has delusions of grandeur, he believes only he can save the Coalition from electoral defeat.
I’ll miss Beattie a lot, he’s a great bloke and has been a fine Premier.
Anna Bligh will no doubt have a honeymoon period, which will be helpful to Rudd too. I wonder if Premier to be Bligh might soften the council amalgamations or delay them?
Boll,
I think the Portlandbet punters are waiting for one more disastrous poll for the Government or the Government calling the election before they start tipping more seats into Labor favoritism
That said, when one goes (looks like Herbert is the most likely atm), a whole swag will probably go – similar to what happened with Stirling and Swan – when one went to Labor, the other went almost immediately.
oakeshoot,
Eh you might be right – but they might be prepared to suck it up to stay in power. Anyway its purely hypothetical – if they tried that path at this late stage they would lucking to hold the ALP to 100 seats.
I wouldn’t underestimate Anna Bligh. Beattie wouldn’t have groomed her for the top job if he had any doubts about her abilities.
Evan, I’m in full agreement with you mate(yes, great minds think alike, especially those with the same first name).
#64 love to see Bennelong make it sweet 16 though.
Portland betting odds on my seat of Berowra:
COALITION 1.01
LABOR 14.00
HH
Don’t worry its a rogue, the odds will turn in the right direction after the election is caled.
On the betting it just makes sense. The polling (and therefore the betting trailing polling theory) clearly indicates massive Labor landslide, but many still cling to the close election theory. You’re winner bet is for labor.
But down to a seat that needs a 6% swing (well within the prediction of the polling) you remember you expect a close election, 6% looks really really big the local is a good guy with x, y and z up his sleeve, you bet incumbent. Surely most of the money in these seats will be picked up by people who know during campaign polling nearer to the election.
BTW was called by the powers that be to smile at the people at a local booth, and handout the HTV’s. Sadly they couldn’t provide a day yet!!!!!!!!!
Howard Hater: I had the misfortune to know Tip back in my Uni days at Monash.
He never had the guts for a good stoush and as for ability, well, Michael Kroger performed all his higher brain functions for him.
Where’s Glen.
I want him to justify the pulling of the Crosby/Textor Analysis from Crikey.
We have belittled your contributions, we have abused you for your naiivity and stupidity. We have given encouragement to your tenacity of sticking with your beloved Libs despite all slings, arrows and poor polls. But no one has ever said you don’t have a right to present your story.
So, tell me, How does censorship and closing down legitimate debate sit with true committed Liberals.
This Government and its minions are out of control and need to be put down asap.
Swampy, good to see your mention of Bob Whitington, a POW in Japan during World War II and a wonderful colleague at The Advertiser. Bob lost many police contacts but preserved his integrity when he broke the story on George Duncan, the homosexual law academic who drowned when thrown into the River Torrens allegedly by police officers.
Unfortunately, we don’t seem to get people like Whitington in the MSM these days. It’s now full of propagandists, the likes of Ackerman and Albrecthsen.
As for Whitrod, we could have used someone like him here in Sydney during APEC. Perhaps he could have talked some sense into the young coppers under his command and reminded them that not every middle-aged jaywalker or mum with a stroller is a mad terrorist bomber.
As it is, it was like a re-run of the good-old Joh/Bolte/Askin Laura Norda days. Aaah, shades of the Moratoriums and Springbok demos of my youth. The cops were just as stupid and authoritarian, too.
I do hope our Morris is not turning into Sir Robert.
That’s a renewal I do not wish to see.
Why was it pulled from Crikey, but not from Possums own blog?
while I’m happy to only watch this election from afair, being as I am reasonably unacquainted with the nuances of Australian politics, I have to ask – doesn’t Beattie’s retirement make it look like ALP attrition before the starter’s pistol even fires? Why is it in their interests to have him stand down now?
I have three theories, if anyone wants to add some of their cents and set me right
1. to make Howard look like he’s a straggler and has to go (but the last number someone quoted me said that 50% of Australians prefer him as PM, which says Howard has a support base his government doesn’t share)
2. Because Beattie is phenom. unpopular and Howard might try to make something the QLD ALP Gov’t does/will do into an issue, and Beattie’s just too much of an electoral albatross to shake it off, and Anna Bligh can just do what Morris Iemma did about NSW in the Carr years and say “a big boy did it and ran away”.
3. because Beattie is too much like Howard, too much a Howard-era politician and Rudd wants a fresh face to front things in Queensland, because after all, the election basically hangs on two states (WA and QLD), and this is his way of sealing the deal.
Those are just my guesses. It’s just that Kevin Rudd is reaching a point where he can’t afford to change his pillowcases without a strategy, so it seems to be a decision made for a reason. can anyone out there help me?
Why was it pulled from Crikey, but not from Possums own blog?
]
Hmmmm forget the justification for a moment, think why would they want to know who leaked it (surely so long as it is a liberal there is nothing for Crosby/Textor to fear) and demand it be deleted, which is much more likely to get it and Possum’s analysis deleted.
Would the law firm be trying to find the real possum before issuing the cease and desist letters. They were always fun to write those letters, a young lawyer didn’t ever need to worry about the law, just the big fat implied my great big client will sue you life away from you threat, signed lovingly by jas. Writing those letters to a marsupial with a desire to look like foreign furry critters wouldn’t be nearly so fun … like threatening to sue a transvestite skippy.
But still I’m not sure why poke a stick into an internet / media hornets nest. And if perchance they find it was leaked from the Treasurers office, would they sue the Treasurer? It is all a bit weird.
Oh except the bit where Possum says they are using basic techniques a decade old (they might have told the Libs it was state of the art) or the bit where possum says it is obvious they have lost and know it … that might not have been said out loud previously ….
Howard in 7.30 report to say that parliament will sit for the next two weeks ruling out a 20 Oct poll
Mike F (76), Beatitie’s resignation is not especially connected to the Federal election as he is a State premier, operating off his own timetable. He flagged retirement a few months ago, but he probably delayed it till now to feed into Federal speculation. There was no particular reason for him to go other than that he’d had enough (much like Carr & Bracks), though he is no doubt conscious of the comparison with Howard, hanging on for grim death. I can’t imagine it’ll change too many votes either way, though it no doubt helps Labor build a case of “time for a change”.
Off topic but the thread’s closed.
Aaron Buman is indeed Alan Buman’s son but i understand they are not close.
mike f, I think you`re confusing preferred PM figures with voter approval figures. According to most recent poll, Rudd ahead 52/39 as preferred PM. Rudd`s approval at 67, Howard`s at 50.
Putting the frighteners onto Crikey and forcing it to delete the Crosby/Textor analysis is going to achieve bugger-all.
The data’s all over the internet now and bullying Crikey into pulling it from it’s site won’t force the leaked information back into the “secret” bag.
Talk about closing the gate after the horse has bolted.
Threats of this nature are an exercise in impotence.
But then, isn’t that the current definition of the Howard Government?
When Colonel Klink (as he is affectionately known at Yarralumla) hangs up his swagger stick I would think Beattie would make an excellent GG.
Albert you’re kidding yourself if you think Costello as PM would have repealed any significant part of WorkChoices. He is committed to the Reaganisation of the workplace as Howard, maybe more so. If Costello is ever PM (which I doubt will happen) we can expect to see WorkChoices II at the top of the bill.
Beattie was very popular and I suspect his replacement will be less so. The potential impact is that the amalgamations will now either be championed by a retired Beattie or his replacement.
Either way I think the amalgamations will be harder to sell during the referendum and may favor Howard.
I’ve received, today, pretty good indication that the election is to be called sooner rather than later. I’ve been betting until now on a late November/Early December election… now I’m thinking it’s likely to be a little sooner than that.
cetp – can you elaborate on that “indication” further without compromising anything or anyone?
What is a “Full Employment Economy” seems to be Howards new mantra?
what a diff on the 7.30 report. beattie saying had a good innings made and named some mistakes. contrast howard shifty the electorate will come around havent been perfect yet wont name where and im the best for aust. please call the election so we can be rid of your lies.
Old Howie says they have made mistakes but wouldn’t answer what they were? Typical!
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery – Howard banging on on the 7.30 report with the trademarked Beattie line that “I don’t pretend we’ve been a perfect government”. Unfortunately, without the big Beattie grin it doesn’t translate too well.
Won’t be held for another two weeks.
He’s got to be tapped on the shoulder.
Howard seemed a little delusional to me on 7.30 Report talking about preconditions for a change of government, etc. As if voters have a formal list they have to tick off before they decide how to vote. I think in his mind this is 1961 and he’ll scrape back in like Menzies did. This is going to be very ugly for him personally. If he loses the Party will turn on him after it gets over it’s shock of defeat.
CTEP: Given Howard said tonight that parliament will sit for at least the next 2 weeks. Which means if he goes for an election straight afterwards, means we could be looking at Oct 27
paul k @ 92: I thought the same. When you stand back, the statement is ridiculous. People don’t vote to “change the government”, they vote on who will form the new government – that may end up being the party that formed the old government or a different party. In either case it’s actually a new government. I think the “change of government” meme actually distorts a lot of analysis around “swings” and polls in general.
Well, having just seen the interviews with Beattie and Imhotep himself on the 7.30 report, the contrasts between them couldn’t have been starker.
Beattie with his “a man’s gotta know when it’s time to go” responses and Howard with his “who says I’m over the hill?” mantra.
I must admit, I was surprised to see Howard actually admit that his government had made mistakes, but (predictably) the only one he was prepared to nominate was Workchoices. Even then, the error nominated was not that it was a hopelessly flawed policy, merely that he hadn’t sold it to the public well enough.
Talk about a Clayton’s apology: “It’s a good policy, you just don’t understand it, you ungrateful idiots.”
That’s gonna go down real well with punters who are taking it up the kazoo on award-stripping AWAs.
If that’s the best he can do, then I think it’s safe to say that Imhotep will be safely interred back in Hamunaptra by Christmas (along with the rest of his rotting Government).
Most economists say that an unemployment level of 4% would just be people transitioning between jobs, and does not demonstrate functional unemployment where there are certain inherent skill shortages stopping the economy from growing.
Howard was saying that in 92 Keating was 10 points behind and still won the election, but Kerry in the end pointed putting him in his place saying the polls were closer to 8 points and that the polls had been all over the place that year but the current polls have been in Labor’s favour for 18 months.
Howard seemed very uncomfortable, and it didn’t even sound like he believed what he was saying about Labor.
Definitely not one of his best interviews.
Yep, just watched Howard on the 7.30 Report. He looks very weakened and vulnerable. There were even a couple of moments when he seemed like he was about to break down. VERY uncomfortable.
He is also very desperate. He is now trying out the honest and humble “I’ve made my share of mistakes” line, which is way out of character. But it completely bombed in my opinion. For a start, he refused to actually point out his mistakes apart from saying that he thought WorkChoices “unnerved” people, therefore warranting a fairness test. Secondly, it was all facade. It lacked genuineness.
All up, Howard looked like he was already giving up. Maybe he will call that election soon, just to get it all over with.
You could spin it,
Carr, Beattie, Beazley……say what you like about Howard but you’ve got to give it to him, he has outlasted the lot.
It`s not Survivor, ifonly.
Albert F well said. Beattie timed this announcement to perfection. Rudd knew about it also, and has been pressuring Howard today to announce the election.
By doing this, Rudd is forcing Howard to delay calling the election. Otherwise he will look weak and make Rudd look strong.
By retiring now, Beattie has
a) focussed the Qld debate on state issues for the next two weeks
b) highlighted Howard’s selfishness in staying on
c) pressured Howard to stay on so as to not look like a copycat
So it’s a one – two punch from the Qld ALP. It looks like it is designed to force Howard to stay on and delay the election. Another view is that Beattie’s message of Renew, Survive is aimed at the libs backbenchers. Tomorrow’s coalition party room meeting could be interesting.
Swampy, thanks for the history lesson. Ray Whitrod was too good for Qld, and his name will not be forgotten here for a long time.
That’s the problem. People see this as a game. “If I can just beat the other guy and win the record.” Politics reduced to a pissing contest.
ifonly,
Yep – he’s still here – others cut down by their own hand or their colleagues.
It’s probably over to the public to take care of Howard…..
Boll says: “It`s not Survivor, ifonly.”
The Libs problem is that Howard thinks it is.
7.30 report Howard interview.
Excruciating. I thought he was going to cry. And Kerry even seemed awkward about pushing him too far.
Seems as if the kindest thing would be for his colleagues to tell him that he has done a good job, but he can rest now.
“Full Employment Economy†and “the preconditions don’t exist for a change of government”.
At least now we know what Glen’s post are going to be about.
Those familiar with Possum Pollytics (http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com) excellent analyses of polling data might be interested to know that his recent analysis of Crosby/Textor’s data has been pulled from the Crikey website:
Never mind Nielsen, Crosby/Textor had the death sentence
Date: Monday, 10 September 2007
The content of this article — originally published at http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/ — has been removed at the request of lawyers acting for Crosby Textor.
Seems that someone at either Crosby/Textor or the government were not happy with the public knowing about the dire polling situation that Possum was able to glean from the results.
Just watched the 7.30 Report. Thought Kerry went pretty soft on Beattie, but Beattie does have that effective tactic of agreeing with criticism of him. He even accepted comparisons with Joh Bjelke-Petersen.
Thought Kerry’s interview with Howard was a much better one. There were some good questions.
I must admit I was surprised when Howard stuck to the old line that he’ll remain leader for as long as his party wants him. I think the voters might be a bit sick of that one. Kerry got him to admit that he hadn’t asked his party room whether they still wanted him, since Rudd was elected. Others have mentioned Howard’s comments on WorkChoices, and his failure to express any regret for not mentioning it before the last election. The PM also locked Costello in as a supporter of WorkChoices. Howard really was unable to nominate where he made mistakes, and the contrast with Beattie was huge.
Obviously, the most newsworthy angle was his announcement that Parliament will sit the full two weeks. So no rush to the polls. He must be planning to bang through a lot of legislation that will pre-empt or block Labor policies. And we await fulfilment of his promise to show us how he’ll capitalise on the booming economy, and secure all our futures. If he’s got a plan on that one, he’s certainly not leaking it yet. Roll out that surplus…
Full employment = 1 hour a week employment or above(=welfare state)Preconditions don’t exist for a change of government: ask Paul Keating and Jeff Kennett.
I emailed the full text of Possum’s analysis to fifteen marginal seat members, just to ’stir the possum’. It will be all over the entire Coalition parliamentary cabal by now. Pulling it from Crikey is just plain stupid.
Howard vs KO was just plain pathetic tonight. In the light of the CrosText analysis, and six months TPP of 44%, 99% certainty at a .5% interval, little Johnny is out of his depth (never more than a puddle), and will sink into oblivion, recognised for the sad excuse for a PM he has always been.
He quoted Downer, Abbott, Nelson, Ruddock, Brough, and Costello as the reasons why the ‘team’ should be re-elected. Such is self delusion! And no mention of Vaile, Vanstone, Coonan. What dreadful ingratitude!
cheers,
Alan H
Howard seems to ahve taken Mal Washer’s advice, he is going to stop talking about himself, but instead concentrate on the team behind him.
He’s tried everything else, this really seems to be a last roll of the dice.
Howard indicated that parliment will sit for another two weeks. There must be a plan behind this – what legistalive wedges are they crafting?
The Q’ld council attack is largely fruitless now as the main target has left the building and a younger leader in a honeymoon period is there instead.
Anyone got a suggestion of what wedges the rodent has left?
“I emailed the full text of Possum’s analysis to fifteen marginal seat members, just to ’stir the possum’.”
Nice move
So what do we think we know?
Howard’s not budging and at the moment no one seems to have the balls to move him so he’s going to the election as the leader of the party regardless of what the polls say.
Parliament will stay on for the two weeks but surely after that he’ll call the election.
Most probably dates of the election are still late October or early November.
Howard will push the concept of “full employment’, his record. the Liberal Team and Rudd’s comparative inexperience.
Overall I can’t see the polls changing. The Libs are marching to defeat like Napoleon’s army marching into Moscow. Confident they’ve beaten the enemy lots of time before and that their Leader is an Emperor amongst mere mortals. Oblivious to the approaching winter.
Maybe now the truth will out. Howard was never the master politician attributed to him – just lucky.
Got in under the radar against Keating (harmless and benign versus arrogant and out of touch), stayed in after 9/11(under the umbrella of Bush’s With us or Against Us) while we were all shocked and frightened, then Beazley caved over Tampa and lost the left, then had Mark Latham lose an election.
Reminds me of the speed skater, Bradbury(?) who won gold at an olympics because all the others fell over.
If Parliament is going to sit for another two weeks, it’ll be interesting to see how next week’s Newspoll is going to affect the lead-up to the election.
Another disastrous result for the Coalition (though I’m unsure what this would be – perhaps anything worse than 58/42?) would surely increase the pressure on JWH to go. Anything better and JWH could claim that the polls are starting to turn around (again!) and that the Coalition has the momentum = JWH survives as leader.
I wonder how Rudd is going to play the game this week? Does he sit back and let the Liberals self-destruct? Or does he ramp up the pressure on the government by releasing another policy?
Well, Glenn Milne speculated today that if there are two more polls with the ALP vote this high (say 56 – 57 or higher) then there will be a challenge. I HOPE that happens, because if it does the ALP will win about 110 seats.
jen 115
“Maybe now the truth will out. Howard was never the master politician attributed to him – just lucky.”
I think the Howard as a political genius is a myth. I do credit him with being prepared to put the much need taxation reforms before the electrate in 1998. It was good policy but nearly cost him office – he got very lucky with tampa and 9/11. He again got lucky in 2004 when the simultaneous brain explosion by the ALP put Latham in the driving seat.
Thats it in my opinon – one gutsy piece of reform, two strokes of luck and steady debasement of our social values and institutions.
Regardless of what the others think and i know many of you have been critical of several Government ministers but Howard was right while this Government does not claim to have a spotless record no Government can and its record shows his Ministers have been competent in discharging their duties and delivered real positive results for the country…
I think a front bench with Costello, Downer, Brough, Turnbull, Bishop, Abbot is a darn sight more competent than Swan, McClelland, Macklin, Garrett, Smith and Roxon…i hate to sound so high and mighty but even a fool could see which side has more experience and a better track record in their respective portfolios….the people may be attracted to Rudd but they havent been exposed to his incompetent and invisible front bench many of whom have little or no political experience let alone enough time in their respective portfolios to have shown any degree of competence necessary to run a Department.
Howard should hold off the election until November at least if not December if the polls dont move terribly much…Rudd’s hubris will take hold and be on view for the whole nation to see that he thinks he has already won the election…Other than Rudd nobody in the ALP is qualified or has the ticker to be the Labor leader its Rudd or bust there is no one else that is why the focus has been about Rudd and only Rudd he’s got a very poor team backing him up that many of the public dont have a clue who they are even Labor members cant name half of them…
The last thing Howard will do is call an election now for one because he’s in charge and he’ll go when he wants not when the media or Rudd says so and second because the polls are so bad he’d be a fool to call them now the high 50s Labor 2PP are at the top end of their polling and the result as it is is probably about 55-45 going into the election a massive amount to make up but anything could happen…
To believe you are ahead by 20points shows that your hubris has blinded you to the reality that as Howard points out 2 preconditions for removing a Government one the downturn of the economy and two an incompetent Government are no where near the case at the moment…if the Government does get beaten it will be because people are bored with the Government and just want a change for changes sake but they’ll wake up the next morning with a complete bunch of amateurs running the economy not something to be taken so lightly…declare the election left wingers if you dare but that would leave yourselves open to a Kinnock Election one that you would hate to see……
Thanks Albert –
reminds of the Diana myth that a pretty woman with nothing between her ears became a ” tireless worker for the poor and sick” rather than a clothes horse for Givenchy. (I still felt upset when she died though.Compassion will out) Possibly stretching the analogy with Howard i will admit. My point being – It’s all about perception rather than substance .
Yeah, life has been great in the sunshine state.
No water, gridlocked roads, a stuffed ambulance system (despite a decent ambo levy on our electricity bills) and a power grid that could fall to bits in a decent thunderstorm.
We wont go near the hospitals.
Thanks Pete.
Glen,
Thank you for repeating the current ‘talking points’ of the Liberal hierarchy.
Would you please check back with them to find out why they are censoring your co-bloggerist, Possum. A bit of solidarity, mate ,never went astray.
Once all your bluster and bull is wiped out by the coming election, you will need friends. Harming Possums don’t look good on your CV.
“Will Says:
September 10th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Howard was saying that in 92 Keating was 10 points behind and still won the election, but Kerry in the end pointed putting him in his place saying the polls were closer to 8 points and that the polls had been all over the place that year but the current polls have been in Labor’s favour for 18 months.
Howard seemed very uncomfortable, and it didn’t even sound like he believed what he was saying about Labor.
Definitely not one of his best interviews.”
Will, Howard raised this 1993 comparison over a month ago. Here’s some analysis on the polling for 1992 and 1993 that shows Howard is either blissfully ignorant or deliberately lying re that election. It’s nothing like this year.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=193
jen,
Ya just messing with my head drawing a comparison between Dianna and Howard
But yes, history is written by the winners – and up to this point Howard has won …. but if and when he looses I doubt the verdict will be kind. Gough, Fraser, Hawke, Keating are welcome and respected figures in public life – I suspect Howard will not be afforded the same affection
I must say, Howard’s criteria for a change of Government is total dross. For one, the economic argument doesn’t stand. Hawke was re elected in 1990 with interest rates at 17% and Keating was re-elected in 1993 after the recession.
For two, Keating was pitched out in 1996 after 5 consecutive years of growth.
Certainly you could argue that the Keating Government was incompetent but like all of Howard’s claims this one is totally unquantifiable and left entirely up to perception. I appreciate that blinkered Tories would say Keating was incompetent but was he any more so in 1996 than he was in 1993 or 1990?
I could certainly put foward the argument that this Government is incompetent and that the economy has been plugging along more in spite of Howard/Costello than because of them. The good economy is because of the Hawke/Keating reforms (de-regulated banking, floating dollar, removal of tariffs) and the Chinese and Indian appetite for Aussie dirt. Nothing to do with Howard and Costello. In the mean time they have been at each others throats to such a point that identifying any specific coherent management in amongst the rabble is no easy task.
At the end of the day, each election is different and the reasons for the outcome will almost certainly be unique.
Boll#100
LOL….
I want a thread where I can post campaign one liners. Rules are that your post has to be less than 30 words and a maximum of two sentences.
Together we could create the slogans for both parties.
Abert -
do you think John and Malcolm will be able to be friends now?
Seems a shame to waste all those ‘Former Leaders Now Have Fun Together’ photo oppotunities that the Labour ex-pm’s manage to pull off.
Glen, Glen, Glen. I admire your resilience in the face of over-whelming evidence to the contrary, I really do, but sometimes setting your jaw against the coming wave just doesn’t work, and indeed, could be seen as delusional. The basic problem you have in your arguments is that you haven’t given us anything new for months. Yes, we know that you think the ALP front bench is full of duds, that no Opposition leader has won the Lodge without being in public life for 20 years, and that Howard the master campaigner will win the campaign and thus the election.
The trouble is, there’s no precedent for this year’s polling – even Howard in 1996 or Hawke in 1983 were never consistently this far ahead. Every now and again and election comes along which turns conventional wisdom on its head, and 2007 looks to be one of those years.
But stay true – Johnny needs you.
Glen, You live in the same sad disconnected fantasy land that Howard does. Is it a genetic defect? If you think that Downer, Abbott, Ruddock and Nelson are positives you are seriously deluded. These four, in particular, have a nasty stench of profound incompetence about them. If they are your strength, you’re stuffed, mate. You’re stuffed anyway, no matter what. Read Possum and weep.
cheers,
Alan H
Where is Possum?
Good on you Glen (post 119) for trying – we know all too well how it feels from the other side.
But seriously: “more experience” as the decisive criterion? Even you must surely admit that the Hawke cabinets were some of the best we have had – and how many of them had any experience in government of any kind to start with (Hayden being the the major exception, to go with PJK’s few months).
If the boot were on the other foot – and if the conservatives in Australia retained any interest at all in federalism as a principle of governance, rather than only a target for Crosby-Textor (TM) based attack – I would have thought that Rudd and Swan’s very senior State administrative experience would be regarded as very serious experience indeed.
Without getting too far at all into unfair comparisons with suburban solicitors who used to sell parrots and goldfish as qualification for Treasurer etc etc (sorry just showing my age there no doubt for those who don’t recognise the quote).
The appeal to experience in government as a qualification for power – if pushed as far as I think some are trying to push it – seems to me to amount to a claim that the people should never change their government.
I don’t think J.W.Howard himself is or would ever be guilty of such an anti-democratic view, any more than P.J.Keating was, and I’d be sorry to see it advanced further by JWH’s remaining supporters.
Glen,
Let our Possum go.
But yes, history is written by the winners – and up to this point Howard has won …. but if and when he looses I doubt the verdict will be kind. Gough, Fraser, Hawke, Keating are welcome and respected figures in public life – I suspect Howard will not be afforded the same affection.
Albert F 124
Lot of truth in that. The historical reckoning of Howard’s premiership will be a lot swifter and harsher than usual. And he has nobody but himself to blame for that.
Glen: The main reason the Howard government is doing badly is because they are grossly incompetent.
The fact that they can’t see this, shows just how incompetent they are.
Then again Howard and Downer have turned wilful blindness into a skill.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/chaser/war/downer/
Possum, the Psephological Find of the Year, as they’re calling him over at Lavartus Prodeo? I imagine he’s out getting himself a good agent.
All of you who are commenting upon the difference in experience levels of the current front bench vs. the shadow front bench – if this comment resembles you, read on ….. Several months back, a US reporter posed the “lack of experience question” to the presidential candidate Obama in discussing why people should vote for him over Hillary based soley upon that issue. His response was along the lines of “Cheney and Rumsfeld had experience and look what that got you – a war.” Government in power by its very existence will have more on the job experience than opposition. And if they are making bad choices with that experience, the voters have every right to chuck them out.
GG
used to live there: is he in your roof?
MM Fike @ 121, I live in Bris mate and that drivel you just pushed was straight from Liberal Party crapbooks
If Beattie had pushed the money 3 years ago into a water grid when our catchments were over 50% full, I would have lined up to throw something at him. That the dams are missing the majority of the massive amounts of rain the Sunshine Coast has received lately is no ALP policy failure on water. The Mary River Dam would be 2/3 full by now and we would be back on level 2 restrictions if it had been built already. You know – able to wash the car again?
The gridlocked roads are “can do” Campbell Newmans problem not Beattie’s. In fact – that was his election push “I’m a civil engineer, I know how to fix Brisbane’s roads” As for Ipswich motorway, blame Howard for that too and the ridiculous Goodna bypass.
Wasn’t there a survey of hundreds of ambulance users tabled in parliament last month from July asking of their experience and 97% said that it was satisfactory or better? Yes it is understaffed, but all Health in Qld is struggling to keep staff.
As for hospitals – I think everyone can safely say we are 100% better off than we were 2 years ago. As long as it keeps improving, even with the staffing concerns, thats all I’m looking for.
Beattie has made some blunders for sure – Patel’s extradition, Mary Rose, amalgamation heavy handedness, but overall he has been excellent.
Glen is like a drowning Egyptian.
He’s in de Nile.
A dreadful performance from Howard on 7.30 Report.
The real dickhead is Costello! A bloke with more balls would have struck 12 months ago, and if it took 2 challenges to remove the rodent, so what, Smirky would have got the job eventually. Now, if the polls are to believed, Costello will win the booby prize of Opposition Leader and 10 years in the political wilderness LOL
Chris B: HA HA good one mate!
In comparison, a very classy interview between O’Brien and Beattie.
Premier Pete – I’ll miss ya!
Jen,
I reckon Captain Smirk has a better chance of a sleep over at the lodge than Malcom letting Lil’ John anywhere near him.
Actually Crispy, Possum is trying to find a larger hat to encompass his ever growing head
Seriously though, it’s all a bit peculiar.
I havent been attacked by lawyers yet, so its all business as usual.
And thanks folks.
What on earth is the PM thinking about? Why is he delaying the calling of the election for another 2 weeks? It looks terrible.
Does he really think the polls can turn? Fair dinkim, he’s lost it big time. People are already pissed off that the election is forever delayed.
This won’t change the impression that Howard is araldited to the seat looking sad, desperate and in denial. Honestly this is nonsense. Even a number of his cabinet are now saying that he should call the election. It’s not in the spirit of things.
It is now more than 3 years since the calling of the 2004 election and it is possible he won’t even call it before October 9th, the date when the last election was held. What a joke.
Putting that to one side we can now rule out October 20th and probably October 27th. November 3rd & 10th come into play despite the risks of an interest rate increase.
Beyond November 10th the election date doesn’t matter. It will seen as the forced consequence of a man who doesn’t want to face the people and relinquish the position he has coveted all his life. He has sacrificed the future of his party.
History will judge Howard harshly. He should stop being selfish and self-indulgent. It appears that he just doesn’t care.
POSSUM FOR PM!!!!
Glen does.
‘Cause it sure as hell won’t be John Winston Howard.
Jen,
Used to live there?
Greensborough. possums everywhere.
As much as you lefties hate Howard, if he does lose what great shape he’ll have left the country in a real testament to his hard work over 11 years in power….low interest rates, low inflation, no debt, low unemployment, greater spending on defence and security, gun control, immigration problem under control, higher education and health endowment funds + the future fund + record budget surplus’s + superannuation and tax reform…id have to say Howard’s legacy whether it be over this year or in a few years time will be one of success and one of achievement and none of your ranting left wing monologues can discredit his good record a record Keating could only dream of…people dont and will never hate Howard as they did Keating or Fraser for that matter….
don’t know if anyone has seen the ‘Bullring’.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/
Noticed that Bryan at Ozpolitics had a new link up. The Bulletin’s election site.
Possum, I know that under copyright laws you can quote up to 10% of a published (and referenced) work. You may be safe as you did not publish the whole thing as Crikey did, although it is arguable as to whether it is “published”. Perhaps someone more knowledgable can comment?
Keep up the great work Possum!
Tom
Ummmm. Don’t remember Keating or Fraser invading countries half way around the world. Or bringing in extreme right wing industrial relations laws. The list could go on. Maybe they don’t hate him but they’re definitely fed up with him.
Tell me Glen what shape has Howard left Australia’s capital reserves?
China has 1.3 trillion dollars. Russia has 700 billion Even Norway has 400 billion.
Australia owns stuff all!
I admire Howard as a very hard working politician, I just think his policies are wrong, short sighted, and a waste of such possibilities.
With Rudd, Howard is finally up against a politician who works as hard as he does.
I watched the KO interview with the PM and came to a different conclusion.
To his credit, Mr Howard mentioned toward the end of the interview that one of the mistakes they have made to now election wise has been to talk only about the past 11 years and not present a vision for the future.
Crosby/Textor must have told him that the electorate aren’t going to reelect him on the grounds of his hubris about the ‘growing economy’ and he has to give us more than “you have not been better off”.
Howard stated that he will be doing plenty “in the coming weeks” to focus on the future and present a plan for the next three years to the electorate. He used the ‘full employment’ notion as an example of this future plan message.
If the ‘full employment’ notion is an example of his ‘aspirational nationalism’ he has 2 problems. No one is listening to him anymore and vague, metaphysical concepts like ‘aspirational’ and ‘full employment’ are not going to shift the vote very far away from Rudd.
I think he had that ‘Ive got nothing’ look about him tonight, despite his couragous attempt to look defeat in the eye and smile at it.
Mr Howard and his team may be saving their best ammunition for the election campaign proper, but from here I can not imagine what it might be that could shake off months of consistent, unprecedented, polls yelling “Your out mate” .
If Mr. Howard does have a election campaign full of announcements about the future he may well save himself from a Ruddslide, tempered as it will be by probably equally plausible futuristic policy announcement from the ALP [note the ALP have said little about tax policy to date].
But to actually win the election ? I just can’t see that happening without a political miracle or a significant ‘own goal’ from Mr Rudd that he would probably survive anyway given his significant lead in the popularity stakes.
Glen, I admire you for swimming against the tide and voicing your opinion, it can’t be easy copping the criticism day after day!
I don’t agree with your commentary, but it’s well written and argued.
What “immigration problem”, Glen?
Pearl of gossip hot off the grapevine. Howard to resign Wednesday. Costello to get nod.
157#
My point exactly Stunkrat because he solved the illegal immigration problem…thanks to taking a tough line it my not have been popular but it was the right thing to do….
PHIL ROBINS. sorry it’s taken me so long to reply, ive been out this evening — so you knew Bob, one of natures gentlemen, he befriended and became very close to the Barnes family after Alan was killed,actually Alan’s dad told how the morning after the lad’s body was found Bob and a cub reporter went to the house at 7 am and the dad turned the hose on them, Bob trained a couple of good reporters with his ethics and they trained a rare couple after them, one trusted by murder families and the police is a crime reporter for the Sunday Mail now, i well remember Bob’s constant mug of tea and his container of sweets that harked back to his POW days.
sorry to go off topic folks.
Gecko-
More info!
Gecko, tell us more. sounds good, as it fits with Parliamentary schedule of getting the Canadian PM out of the country before doing anything drastic, but otherwise, what else is behind this rumour?
“158
Gecko Says:
September 10th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Pearl of gossip hot off the grapevine. Howard to resign Wednesday. Costello to get nod”
The libs will sound like total hypocrites if The PM goes on Wednesday after saying point blank tonight on the 7.30 Report he will lead the party into the next election.
Glen,
You should have worked out by now that no one is listening to that clap trap. But, that has not stopped you in the past.
The fundamnentals are:
(a) biggest boom driven by Chinese investment.
(b) record corporate profits
(c) record corporate salaries.
Howard Battlers get Work Choices which:
(a) Reduce pay and work conditions
(b) Put working families under pressure.
(c) Incresased Mortgage rates.
Combine this with the Liberal Party being obsessed with serving the will of Howard to the total exclusion of the interests of our nation and you might understand the broad outline of your problem.
Ranting against Rudd and Labor is just farts in a hurricane. Rudd is already the PM in most people’s mind.
HH:
“…it’s well written and argued”… would that be the german rants, the irrational Howard can do no wrong diatribes, ..or are you related?
Glen,
Just to add to Stunkrat’s question
What “immigration problem?”
Nearly all of us are from some place else – what’s ya point?
He let 157 boats through, then stopped boat 158.
That isn’t a policy, that is political opportunism.
Albet F,
Glen would rather be somewhere else at the moment!
Now wouldnt that be ironic that this thread started with Peter Out and the next one begins with Peter In .. I wish !! Gecko dont tease me so. LOL.
Sorry Sondeo… I know this source really well… seemed that’s the word. I give it cred.
I saw a billboard on Parramatta Road yesterday (major trunk route in Sydney) – it was a big picture of Howard, and the words “Working families have never had it so good”. No ALP signage, it could easily have come from the Libs. Brilliant positioning and well pitched, to all those commuters stuck in Sydney’s famous traffic jams, and who are no doubt quoting Kath & Kim – “Bloody Howard”.
Johnny may not have called the election yet, but surely it’s just a matter of a week or two. I got the impression that he was flagging that he would call it at the end of next week, which would suggest a 27 Oct (no good for me, as it’s one of my mate’s 40th birthday and she’ll never forgive me if I don’t turn up) or 3 Nov (no plans as yet) polling day.
Or the bastard might just hold on till the end and we won’t get to vote till 15 December! (Surely the last possible date).
Can someone tell me when the expiry of the House thing kicks in (I think it’s late November)? One assumes he’d announce before then.
Gaynor #153
From the Reserve Bank,
In March 1996 Official Reserve Assets (ORA) were $17,280 million
In July 2007 ORA were $80,347 million
Some questions for my candidate pages:
* What does Mr Alex Hawke actually do for a living?
* Why has Mr Cam Nation, quondam Liberal candidate for Gorton, mysteriously disappeared from the Liberal Party’s website?
* Did Mr Craig Thomas get selected as the Liberal candidate for Griffith last week? If not, who did?
* When are the NSW Liberals going to chose candidates for seats which still don’t have them? Or, if they have chosen them, when are they going to announce them? Can anyone tell me the names of Liberal candidates for Banks, Barton, Blaxland, Charlton, Cunningham, Fowler, Grayndler, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lowe, Newcastle, Prospect, Reid, Shortland, Sydney, Watson or Werriwa? What is going on with these people?
* Have the WA Libs yet chosen a No 3 Senate candidate to replace Matthias Cormann?
Hugo, HoR expires on 15 November 2007. From then it is between 33 and 68 days until the election.
Gecko, thanks. We will see on Wednesday I guess. Given Canadian PMs speech, I guess Howard has to go through motions of claiming to be PM for a while, so foreign PM is not plaything of local politics. Could explain his claims to stay on and not call election etc. On the other the rumour could be just that of course…
Ah… so you support a government that has so many bungled attempts at buying much needed defence equipment, like planes and helicopters. Also you support a government that killed off the Ready Reserves, which meant our combat readiness dropped. Also they have presided over a constant problem of attracting and retaining people in to the defence force, and their only idea to increase that is offering ‘gap years’. How about they pay the professionals within the military what the industry pays, that might stop the loss.
You also support a government that in its first term gutted the amount of money spent on higher education and research. The current spending on higher education and research is still less now in real terms then it was when Howard gained off. This is also a government that tries to gag scientist from the CSIRO on climate change.
As for superannuation, the Coalition opposed universal supperannuation until it got in to power in 1996. In fact, universal super is an outcome from the ‘mean old unions’ you and the rest of the right say are so bad. So they shouldn’t say they own the idea of super by any means.
Finally, glad to see we have the ‘immigration problem’ under control. You just showed your true colours in being a Hansonite.
Daren’t give away source but ‘old lib’ connection should satisfy. Seems the view is private polling is so bad they have nothing to lose and have no choice but to roll the dice.
I’d give the info 80/20 possibility of being correct.
Well, lets assume Geko’s rumor is true.
What effect to people think it will have.
Make it worse?
Damage control?
Just a chance to sneak back in?
Gecko if you’re right it would appear that Howard has been tapped on the shoulder by Downer.
We know Minchin has told Howard “it’s time”. Downer is the last line of defence.
Yes, Howard should call the election asap, but no he can’t do so – he will look like he’s been pushed or panicked into it.
No, he’s not the problem, and that’s not why he’s talking about everyone else.
Yes, the government is in trouble, but not as much trouble as Billy MacMahon.
Yes, the polls are very bad but they’re not so bad that they’re “terminal”.
Yes, he would like to say he’s made mistakes but he can’t recall the details and didn’t bring his list.
Really, his whole case, his raison d’etre, is dissolving as we watch.
Not long from now – maybe starting at breakfast – Kevin Rudd will be talking about the promise of “stable leadership”, of “a fresh, new government with a strong sense of purpose”, of his “united team”.
It’s too good to be true.
Sorry Gecko, I don’t buy it. It won’t happen. But if it does I owe you a beer.
Glen: Howard has not left the country in great shape.
From your list, and bearing in mind the economy that Howard has inherited:
Low interest rates? They’ve gone up 5 times since the last election and is the among the highest in the Western world.
Low inflation? Have you looked recently Glen? We’re back up at 3%
No debt? No assets either, they’ve all been sold.
Low unemployment? Low job security too
Greater spending on defence and security – due to Howard’s stupid foreign policy making us more of a terrorist threat and wasting lots of taxpayers money
Gun control? Okay
Immigration problem under control – you mean locked up in detention centres?
Higher education and health endowment funds – due to not actually investing in infrastructure
Future fund – Only brought about due to lack of revenue from sale of assets
Record budget surplus – record tax intake
Superannuation and tax reform – What reform? Minor tinkering to the Keating reforms.
people dont and will never hate Howard as they did Keating or Fraser for that matter….
People do hate Howard with a passion, just read all the blogs and forums on the internet.
“Well, lets assume Geko’s rumor is true.
What effect to people think it will have.”
A shit sandwich still tastes like shit no matter how much chicken salt or tomato sauce you put on it.
In short nothing would change. The dye is cast.
Dear Adam,
1. Alex hawke is a Kamikaze pilot.
2. Mr Dam Nation is apparently a holograph and will disappear from view when the sun shines in certain ways.
3. Well, sort of. They had trouble with his brother John verifying the signature.
4. In time for the Federal election in June 2008.
5. Western Australians can’t count to three.
Paul K.
Personally I hope its wrong. But have to admit eye ball to eyeball and perfectly sober… the info gave me a jolt.
Gladly buy u a beer if turns out to be wrong. Got my fingers crossed it is.
Albert @177
My guess will be it would have to be motivated by an admission of defeat at the next election and an attempt to avoid a complete Rudd slide decimation of Coalition seats.
There is no guarantee that Costello would save his own bacon let alone anyone else, but it would take Howard out of the decision and that might keep some voters in the Coalition pocket, I say might.
Whatever they do now seems to be too little, too late to WIN, maybe enough to save the survivors from sitting in Opposition for 6-10 years IF the strategy works- and that is very big IF.
I wonder what others think of the effect of a changing of the guard this close to an election campaign ?
Noocat,
Thanks for that info regarding Possums contribution to Crikey.
I notice that it is still on Possum’s web site. With any luck that site will be located overseas and those dam lawyers will have trouble tracing Possum and his site.
Howard tonight didn’t look like a man ready to throw in the towel in 2 days, but 48 hours is a long time in politics, so we’ll see if the rumour is true.
Adam – re Kingsford Smith – the Lib candidate is Caroline Beinke – you can find the info in the latest edition of the Southern Courier (dated 4/9/07) – http://digitaledition.southerncourier.com.au/ – the article about here is on page 13 with photo.
HH
I agree. He didn’t look ready to throw in the towel – he looked ready to be wrapped up and buried in it
Installing Costello as PM now would certainly divert attention from the Rudd juggernaut for a while, provided it was done smoothly, but the awful sight of Howard’s public humiliation would surely repel a lot of people. Costello as PM would probably improve the Libs’ position here in Victoria, where he is relatively popular. But it’s not Victoria where the Libs are losing scads of seats. Surely it would play very badly in NSW – Sydney boy axed by Old Liberal Melbourne Establishment etc etc. The dominant Right faction in NSW would surely resist a Costello succession, and make a play for Abbott. I find this scenario very hard to swallow, even for a party in desperare straits.
No doubt Howard will become very popular.
Once he resigns!
Greeensborough # 164
I think you are making statements not in evidence
The fundamnentals are:
(a) China boom combined with worst drought
(b) record corporate profits
(c) record corporate salaries.
(d) since Last election inflation has risen 7.02%
(e)since last election verage weekly full time earnings have risen 11.46%
(f) average weekly earnings (all) have risen 13.08%
By all means put your case but rhetoric has little value and perhaps suggest weakness if you can’t produce evidence.
Lateline’s Tony Jones would appear to be reading straight from Possum’s analysis of Crosby-Textor!
It’s out there…
I keep reading endless repetitions of the view that Howard and his crew are not hated, that there is no anger out here in punterland. Where does this pap originate? Even Adolf i his final days in the bunker became a pathetic object. It is ever so with bullies when they meet their comeuppance.
Thanks Stewart – that confirms my view that the NSW Libs have actually chosen candidates for all these seats but are too incompetent actually to announce them. Labor, the Greens and the Nats have had all their candidates’ photos and CVs online for weeks.
The Liberal Party might as well hand it over to Labor if they switch leaders now they wont do it look what happened the last time we did that 1971 that idiot McMahon knocked off Gorton who beat Whitlam all be it by a small margin in the 1969 campaign the Libs were disunified and they lost….
I am sick to death of the media i mean they’ve turned an election about the Opposition leader into an election about Howard instead of talking about Rudd’s inexperience we are talking about Howard quiting…
And no Howard will not go if he does there will be less than a rump left of the party at the election if that happens.
Glen
Hope yr watching Lateline to get the facts on one thing people care about: the catastrophe housing has become under Howard’s regime.
Possum made it to Lateline via Crikey. Legend.
Ifonly.
Look at the polls!
What’s your explanation?
It feels like the Costello swap is a fifty/fifty proposition. Peter’s recorded unpopularity, weighed against the inevitable poll bounce when a leader is changed as the unengaged out there respond to novelty. The idea of it makes me nervous, therefore the idea of it must make some Coalition people hopeful. Can’t decide if either feeling is justified, days and days of discussion here notwithstanding.
What all the leadership talk from within the Libs does tell me is that they can’t have much up their sleeve for the campaign. No sign of confidence in what they had to take to the people. Howard tonight talked about putting forward a vision for the future as though he’s just stumbled across the idea. Sounds like the ads in the can are all about Labor inexperience and Union Bosses. Time to make some new ones, whoever is PM by Wednesday night.
That’s got to be the worst election slogan I’ve ever heard. Might as well say ” what are you whinging about ” or ” Stop nagging me”.
‘Night all. Only 2 more sleeps ’til Wednesday D-Day if Gecko’s source is right. (Is it Downer??)
Adam,
Alex Hawke works as a staffer for NSW MLC and right-wing war lord David Clarke.
Glen, the media are NOT to blame for the mess the PM is in.
That is a poor argument that smacks of sheer desperation.
You must have something better than that to offer as an excuse for the impending demise of the Howard Government besides ‘inexperience’ and ‘media bias’ ?
Is is not just an election “about the Opposition leader”, the electorate are not that narrow minded. Face it Glen, it IS time for a change.
Albert Ross housing has not become a catastrophe under Howard and i will explain why in a simple but informative matter…
1. Housing is not a responsibility of the Commonwealth…The States have the powers to release land and at the moment they are withholding land to jack up the price to ensure they get top dollars in stamp duty and other taxes. The Commonwealth is making an audit of Crown land to see what can be made available but that is all it can do…
2. The Howard Government cannot be blamed for people overextending themselves with borrowing more than they can logically afford some people have been stupid enough to borrow heavily when rates were at record lows stupidly thinking they can stay that why and did not get fixed rates…if they think rates are high now just wait till they see how Rooster Swan gets them!
3. Interest Rates under Labor Av 12% Interest Rates under Coalition Av 7-8% i know which Party is doing a better job and so should you.
4. Rudd’s rental policy is a joke he’s putting money for a project that wont be finished for 5 years and will help 50,000 out of 500,000 people supposedly under rental stress wow that’s going to do alot!
Aww Glen, now I have to say that has to be the biggest dummy spit of the year. The reason the media is give Rudd a clear run is that the Libs have this most fragile ‘unity’ that has ongoing scandals about leadership challenges, with Tip acting like a spoilt kid not getting what he wants, to Wilson Tuckey saying there should be a spill and that. The government has been outwardly negative all year and has at any stage this year given a clear direction of where they want Australia to be in 5-10 yrs.
I suggest you ring Murdoch and tell him that he isn’t being nice and that he should give Howard ‘a fair go’.
I’m hoping that The Rodent’s renowned stubborness will see him through this difficult period.
I really want to see Howard go to the polls and be politically executed by the people.
Glen,
So in other words the Liberal Party policy on housing is to ignore the problem and deny liability. Just what you want from a responsible government. Any wonder people want them out?
No Paul read what i write the Liberals have been arguing for months that the Labor states should release more land for housing and whenever Howard asked Rudd to call up his Labor mates the Premiers what has Rudd done NOTHING! He refused, the ALP are almost entirely responsible for the housing crisis…its simple release more land and prices will drop and more houses will become available…
I wouldnt say they want them out paul k Howard has an approval rating of 50% for a leader of 11 years id say they are happy with him….the election isnt over yet paul k or perhaps your hubris has got the best of you already!
Housing affordability is one of those mistakes the Libs have made but can’t remember.
Glen,
I’d rather have the hubris of the Labor Party than the debris of the Liberals.
GG you say its the Liberals fault but i dont see the Constitution saying the Commonwealth is the only authority on housing issues….last time i checked Housing was the responsibility of the States god you guys know enough about politics to know this!
Glen,
Very arrogant of me to read the polls. I guess only humble people ignore them and put their faith in an aging stubborn leader who cares more about himself than he does in his own party or the country.
Glen,
The Productivity Commission investigated the issue of housing affordability about 2 years ago and they found that land supply was only a very minor factor. One of the major factor’s they found though was the laws around negative gearing that fuelled the purchase of multiple investment properties.
Of course once your Treasurer Peter Costello read this in the report he disowned it and buried it.
Glen, the whole thing of its the states’ responsibility is just utter bull. There are many factors that relate to it, and land prices is just one factor. People are getting of sick of Howard and Co. just pointing fingers when something isn’t going well, and they pat themselves on the back when something goes well. That’s not leading, leading would be actually doing something about it.
Just for a bit of light entertainment, if you were a DJ what song would you play for John Howard at the moment?
I’d go for The Angels’ “Looks like it’s coming down on me”.
Local government is a state issue, but that didn’t stop Howard from getting involved in that.
Perhaps William better begin a new thread called Peter In?
Glen: Housing under Howard
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2003/s916452.htm
Arrogance and stupidity personified.
Glen,
Their mistake was political opportunism that caught up with them. Owning interest rates was a rod Howard created for himself. Libs shouldn’t be peeved because the issue has flipped.
Now that I have your attention, would you please respond about Possum. Why are you Libs so scared of someone having a different opinion.
Glen: Howard’s approval being over 50% throughout his term as leader is few and far between. That’s an indictment on a leader with a booming economy.
Why are you Libs so scared of someone having a different opinion.
GG 222
http://tinyurl.com/yow4xh
As this thread began with PB’s retirement, I just wanted to offer the observation that the following contrast strikes me as significant:
Bracks born 1954, Victorian Premier 1999-2007
Beattie born 1952, Queensland Premier 1998-2007
Howard born 1939, PM 1996-?
Obviously John doesn’t like spending time with the wife.
peter costello, the saviour? well, it’s a long shot. but it’s probably better than the alternative if you’re a lib….
the logic of leadership tensions is that they don’t dissipate until the challenger has had a real go and then either wins or quits. the genie is really out of the bottle now and won’t soon be put back in. the public know this issue will have to be settled some time: either now or in a year or….one way or another, the leadership is the primary issue now for the libs. for howard – as well as costello and the rest them too, i suppose, the sad truth is that an unstable leadership is an unelectable one.
i noticed tonight that howard was quick to rule out a party vote – he doesn’t want to risk it. it was the only thing he really sounded sure about. they have to settle this somehow or other. if howard won’t resign, he will have to be removed…but is it do-able?
the risk for the libs is that a spill could take place but not resolve anything – just open up divisions. howard alluded to this sort of thing tonight when he mentioned the mcmahon government.
they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t….richly deserved…
This doesn’t sound like a man about to quit:
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=28&ContentID=40043
“Mr Howard said he had discussed quitting as Liberal leader with his family last night, and they had encouraged him to stay on.”
That’s funny; he consulted his family but not the party room. I wonder why not?
So what’s he going to do over the next two weeks? What policy will he announce?
It is obvious he will spend Wednesday’s question time talking up the APEC climate change declaration, he will talk alot about selling uranium to Russia.
What else is he going to announce?
Costello will be the cause of a bigger loss for the libs, he is barely coherent when he is being seriously interviewed,he is super cautious about what he says, because,IMO, he is afraid to reveal what is really on his mind. In parliament he can look good,a cheap imitation of Keating. He is a cold eyed rightwing ideologue with a couple of redeeming features. Please let these rumors be true,I will have incurable happy feet until election day. Its too bloody good to be true.
I’m inclind to agree with Il Duce. Outside Victoria Costello would be poison. Anyway the problem with the government is not Howard. I know everyone here hates him, but I think most of the punters still have some respect for him. The problem is WorkChoices, and Costello is just as hardline on that as Howard is, maybe more so. Costello is more ideological than Howard, not less. Once it sunk in that PM Costello was just more the same only a bit younger, the polls would sag again very quickly, particularly in NSW.
We have now entered the limbo world for John Howard.
The leadership speculation is not going to stop until the Libs change leadership or Howard calls the election.
Tonight, despite a day of categorical assurances that Howard will stay on to lead the Party into the …….., we have specultion that Wilson Tuckey will move the leadership vacant and nominate a WA colleague at tomorrow’s party room meeting. Others are saying that Wednesday is the day when Costello will move.
Just Me 224,
Great link – does this mean there could be a cure for being conservative?
Just noticed this in the Townsville Daily Bulletin
“BURGER king George Colbran looks headed for Canberra. A poll conducted exclusively for the Townsville Bulletin shows the McDonald’s franchise owner and Labor Party candidate would be the new Member for the Townsville-based seat of Herbert had an election been held over the past week.
The poll, by the AEC Group, found Mr Colbran enjoyed a two party preferred vote of 52.8 per cent compared with the current Liberal MP Peter Lindsay of 47.2 per cent.”
(that’s a swing of 8.9% folks)
The more I watch the 7.30 report… I contend we have a dead man walking. APEC may have been his last chance to convince the party… it didn’t work. Costello is rooted either way… but what choice does he have? There is no other circumstance where he will be given the leadership… it’s a long shot… but to go with the status quo will destroy the party. His job will be to save as many seats as he can. A new leader will steal the press and stem the flow (if only for a moment)… give understandable logic to election delay… And allow ‘ some’ shift on policy that might give them hope… dramatic policy shift under Howard won’t sell… but it might with Costello.
Worth a thought… I hope Rudd is ready just in case.
Big Rudd interview in tomorrow’s Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22397501-601,00.html
He mentions:
Researching impact into poker machines
Cutting HECS for Maths and Science students
Maintain budget surpluses
I’m the Rudd bunker will have a plan for every contingency, down to and including Ross Lightfoot becoming PM.
Simon: Thing is, he is planning to work with Tim Costello in working on strategies about pokies. Tip must be furious with his own brother about that.
Looks like you’re dead right Adam re 237. A Costello in one hand worth two in the bush…. makes you wonder.
That’s brilliant positioning by Rudd, shows his willingness to work with anyone to solve problems. Unlike Howard who has just attacked the states relentlessly.
In fact, Rudd’s response to the “Labor in every state, and federal level” scare should be “a good P.M. should be willing to work with anyone, irrespective of which political party they are in”.
Wow, backbenchers were explicitly told not to comment on leadership speculation yesterday:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22396498-952,00.html
“But an attempt to impose discipline ahead of the campaign backfired yesterday, when an order gagging backbenchers from discussing the leadership issue was leaked.
Several Government MPs told The Courier-Mail they received instructions by SMS from the Government Whip not to comment.”
Adam (re George Colbran): George is well known in Townsville, especially for owning all the Maccas in the region, and his donations and community involvement due to his success. I never got to meet him, but he is definitely a high profile candidate. Peter Lindsay is useless, and it’s amazing the number of times his office gets egged. If you have seen his office you will think he is the PM or something, as he has a HUGE sign saying he is the local MP.
I’ve sent an email to William seeing if he will do a write up about Herbert, since in State politics the ALP has 3 of the 4 Townsville seats (though Burdekin is more rural and includes a local of cane farmers), also at the local level the ALP has been in power for a long time. The Townsville region has been known for some big swings in State politics so a big swing federally wouldn’t surprise me. Makes me want to move back home, and vote Lindsay out.
I did go home for Easter this year, and there were Vote for George signs everywhere. Lindsay will have a hard time to get the funding to campaign against George who has made a bucket load of money out of his Maccas franchise. George is a classic example of you can be in business and support Labor (he has been in the party for ages)
Watch the LIbs accuse Rudd on Hypocrisy over Pokies.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22398038-5005361,00.html
Antonio said at 108 re JWH on 7.30 Report
‘no rush to the polls. He must be planning to bang through a lot of legislation that will pre-empt or block Labor policies’.
Question all. How could that happen?
And if new legislation gets through, and through the Senate, can it be implemented? Even if, can’t such be altered or ditched by next government. Assume Labor.
Not if the Coalition still controls the Senate. That’s why they put thru a bill locking away the Future Fun to stymie Labor’s broadband policy. This will make a 2008 DD more likely.
Will, thanks for that. Burdekin isn’t in Herbert any more, it’s been cut back to the city area.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007seats/herbert.shtml
news.com.au poll on Costello.
Would you vote for the Liberals if Peter Costello was in charge?
Yes 41% (3631 votes) No 58% (5020 votes) Total votes Total of 8651 votes
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,1242-5030746,00.html
Rudd Goads Rivals
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-goads-rivals/2007/09/10/1189276633557.html
IR laws were bungled, admits PM
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22395449-2,00.html
Rudd goes negative, John goes all Kevin
woah
Thing that got me about the 7:30 Report was that he is only going to give a direction for the next 3 years, not where he wants the country in 10 years time. If you listen to Rudd, he says he is wanting to set the ground work for 10 yrs time. Howard admitting he only wants a plan for 3 years could come back to bite him has Labor can say ‘Look, we were right, he is only about the next election’.
Great link – does this mean there could be a cure for being conservative?
Albert F 234
Nah, it’s congenital.
Is Howard saying to his colleagues:
“I promise not to lose by much”
Or is he still saying:
“I can win!”
It seems many of them don’t really believe him anymore
Phillip Coorey made mention of the lack of NSW Liberal candidates in Monday’s SMH:
Choosing Costello removes:
1. Claims of experience
2. Fear of change – there will be change no matter what
3. The front cover of Howard, the only symbol of strength and depth of the Govt
4. His campaigning and in front of camera experience
5. Those voters hanging on because of Howard [50% approval]
6. The Rudd team suddenly look more credible in comparison.
It exposes Costello out in front. He doesn’t articulate very well, talks in ways that half miss the point, speech some times obscure or wasted because of bad timing or not in the general vernacular. Costello would need months as the front man to get into the swing of things and to pick up a few skills.
WHY would Howard wait any longer when every week could actually be costing him votes? He has that looser look about him now, people are assuming he is done for and may want to put him out of his misery.
Or have they got a plot with GW Bush to do something untoward?
First of all, congrats to the Growler from Greensborough for using 2 words in the 1 sentence ending in `is`, hubris and debris. Off the top of my head I can only add chamois to the mix. Super stuff. Ah, just remembered another. Pen anyone?
#234 apparently people are working on the `born a conservative` cure. For gay conservatives though, scientists remain pessimistic.
Any other resident Pullbludger Tokyoites?
Howard has got his senior ministers to profess loyalty. Now he seems to be daring his party to remove him (7.30 Report last night). If he can ratchet up the dare until someone bites, all those “loyal” ministers will have to dive in to the fray, shredding their credibility in the process. End result – the whole edifice comes crashing down. Is that what Howard is aiming for? He knows he’s beaten so he’s going to take everyone else with him?
Anyone think it’s completely boring that on the day after Howard begins his new strategy of saying “Look at the Labor team… union officials!” that the front page of the Daily Telegraph is:
Unions on a free run to parliament
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22397023-5007132,00.html
God guys… you never surprise.
Greeensborough 201#
In your earlier post you claimed reduced pay etc. Those claims are not borne out by the official figures on inflation, average full-time weekly earnings, average weekly earnings etc.
The polls are about perception and may be the way they are because
-a mood for a change
-a perception that people are worse off
-they like the school prefect look
etc
The polls are how people intend to vote, you were claiming a situation that was not in evidence. As I said before….there is no need to make things up, I will add to that ….unless you are trying to create the perception that people are worse off.
Re (171)
Gecko Says:
September 10th, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Sorry Sondeo… I know this source really well… seemed that’s the word. I give it cred.
I understand if Gecko can’t give more details. Nice analogy between the present situation though and the recent past of AFL coaches. In the AFL, the time you need to really worry and KNOW that the coach is gone is when the club president is forced to come out and support him publically. “Oh, yes, I support the work our man has done, no worries ….. ” and this is supposed to stop the string of rumours that the coach will be pushed out the door. Happens nearly every time in that pattern. Do not know if this chain of behaviour is followed with NRL clubs, I don’t follow that code of football.
Nice parallel with the way that all coalition folks lined up on Sunday/Monday to support him. If it has come to that, it might be past the point of saving his skin. Will await Wednesday’s news with pleasure to see what develops ;-D
What you heard could be right, Gecko. But I hope it’s wrong. I so-o-o want to see Howard finally accountable to the voters, and go down big time. Cut and run or a coup avoids that, and always allows him the luxury in his memoirs of claiming, “Of course, I could have turned it around and won if only my party had had faith.”
My own feeling is that he may yet force a public showdown if someone is brave enough to tap him on the shoulder. Fading quietly into the sunset doesn’t seem to be his thing.
Ifonly,
You can live in your own little fantasy world that Workchoices is not one of the primary reasons that the Government have lost support since the last election.
It turned up as a factor in the Victorian and NSW elections, the Unions have spent millions to promote the issue and the Government has striven fruitlessly to spend taxpayer money to counter it. And, still the punters say it is a “crock”
Go down to any pub or club and talk to people who were Howard Battlers and are now changing to Rudd. Why – Workchoices. And, if your not put out by big words, read Possums earlier analysis on this issue.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/08/23/howards-movements/
Please keep talking about it and please advise Howard to keep saying, like he did last night, that Workchoices is good legislation. Evidence to the contrary is right before your nose.
There is none so blind as he who will not see.
Herbert is looking good based on Portland. $1.78 Coalition, $1.90 Labor and $67 other. That’s 51%, 48% and 1% respectively.
Greensborough #261
I didn’t say that workchoices and the union ads are not affecting the polls, clearly they are. Ads are not reality, they are perception.
You claimed people were receiving lower wages, repeating the ad not the reality.
Since the last election the measure of;-
inflation has risen from 145.4 to 155.6, an increase of 7.02%
Avg full time earnings from 961.5 to 1071.7, an increase of 11.46%
Avg earnings from 758.30 to 857.50, an increase of 13.08%
There are three options, either
you are not well informed and have been convinced by the ads
or
you believe the ads despite the evidence
or
you believe the evidence but repeat the line about lower wages to push an agenda
If either of the first two are true you are a case in point as to why the polls are where they are and if the third is true then clearly you believe repeating the mistruth will convince others.
I start to get concerned when people need propoganda to convince others, if your case is strong you should not need to.
Averages tell you that if your feet are in the oven and your head is in the freezer, that on average you are warm. But, tell me, how do you feel?
Workchoices is also about loss of lifestyle e.g. loss of weekends, penalty rates, non family friendly shifts etc. We live in a society not just an economy. Intangibles have value too.
Guys, far be it for me to break the left love-in that has settled over the blogs in the last few months, but has anyone noticed Rudds change in personality lately?
The real danger for Rudd is in becoming another Costello – smarmy and uppity. In the news over the last couple of days he has attacked both Howard for being a being of the past (warranted) and called Costello a “failure”. Costello isn’t a failure no matter what the left believe. He has delivered the surpluses they need and just been overruled in what to do with the money if Howards biography is to be believed. Rudd has also attacked the states over pokie revenue. It is a shift in focus from small target to large by lashing out at larger picture issues. It also shows (over?) confidence in polls.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-goads-rivals/2007/09/10/1189276633557.html
The danger is Rudd beginning to come across as a smart-arse. Stick with small targets, stay positive and never attack the Govt this hard on their success at economic level.
Must have scared them. Kerry Bartlett, the proverbial lettuce leaf.
Greensborough #264
Now you are changing your story, you originally claimed it was loss of wages, now it turns out it is about higher wages in return for changed conditions. Damned cunning those bosses.
Smart observation Grooski.
As for Howard’s leadership, you would think, having seen the 7.30 Report, that Howard will certainly lead the coalition to the election. But I just can’t believe that the backbench will happily sign their death warrants. The poll in Herbert (mentioned earlier) just seems to confirm the general size of the swing, and that’s it’s just as strong in regional Australia (Howard’s heartland) as in metro areas. At least half the coalition backbench must be seriously worried about losing the seats (or seriously pleased about collecting a parliamentary pension).
The rumour that Howard will resign is just a rumour, with no hard evidence, and I’m sure Howard himself doesn’t believe it. But what if someone (Tuckey?) moves a vote of no confidence in Howard in the party room this week? How would that vote go? Those media persons who spout the Costello line have given plenty of hints that Costello would take the job if it was vacant. Howard losing a no-confidence motion would make it vacant, without a challenge being required.
The Liberals still haven’t got a candidate for the marginal Labor seat of Banks – today’s SMH.
Wasn’t Peter Lindsay claiming yesterday there’s huge support for Howard in his electorate? Maybe he hasn’t seen the latest poll for Herbert LOL
Howard’s program for the next 3 years: aspirational nationalism gone mad, and lots of bribery.
Antonio, my guess is that Howard would easily win a no confidence vote. The senior Libs would have got rid of Howard before the backbenchers, and they know there is no alternative.
I also agree with Grooski on Rudd, his tone has been slightly off-key in the last few days. I time it started exactly at the point he kept on speaking Mandarin after the first round of applause.
#265 – Grooski, this is not a change in personality. Rather, this is Rudd trying to steal a march on the only remaining strong point the government has left – the economy. Rudd knows that if he can actually overtake Howard (and Costello) on perceptions of economic credibility (an idea which was completely unthinkable two months ago) then it really will be a carve up at the November poll.
Greensborough, if opposition to Workchoices is such a vote winner, why did Rudd and Gillard spend the year toning down their objections to it?
Grooski,
personally I really don’t like what I see of Rudd – he’s too manufactured and insincere for my taste. however ANYONE is better than the despicable lot that have held the reigns for the last 11 years. I suspect the adage that “Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them is” is correct. As long as the alternativePM is reasonably ok -unlike Latham- he/she is in.
It’s a big risk for John Howard to sit for two weeks. He just leaves himself exposed to a coup. Surely there would be little risk of a coup after he announced the election.
If there are another couple of heavy duty polls as bad as the last three then the nervous nellies on the backbench will rise as one.
It’s likely that all this talk of leadership and comparisons between Peter Beattie leaving so young and “renewing” the government and John Howard clinging to power will affect the Coalition’s polling.
The polls may go even further backwards and then what?
Will it still be crash or crash through?
I think it’s still touch and go whether John Howard leads the party to the election. About 50-50 currently.
Tony Abbott acknowledged that Alexander Downer was equivocal about change and didn’t attack him for it.
I wonder if Alexander Downer was invited to appear but declined?
Was anyone else also invited but declined?
I would think we watch the words and actions of Alexander Downer for clues over the next few days.
He may well be stitching up a deal for a peaceful transfer and accommodating Malcolm Turnbull’s ambitions at the same time.
He would need to have him keep quiet during the transfer.
It’s possible that Peter Costello is resigned to his fate of being temporary PM.
Ah well, he can at least put in his CV
“Prime Minister 20th September – 3rd November 2007″
Perhaps better a PM for six weeks than not at all.
Of course John Howard is going to bluster and try to shut up all leadership speculation and declare bravely that he can win but in his heart of hearts he must know he can’t.
We’ve all seen leaders declare that they will lead their parties into the next elevction and are quite determined to win.
John Howard would probably be as mortified to see his own seat go to Labor and losing the election. He knows that would happen if he were deposed but that is the price the Liberals may have to pay to have a ghost of a chance.
We’ll see if the plotters are courageous enough to take on John Howard.
…as mortified losing his seat as losing the election
Downer and Turnbull dump Howard !!!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22398637-29277,00.html
HH: LOL! Thing is he is probably only speaking to the people in Annadale and Douglas where his vote is the strongest.
Looks like Gecko might be right.
Howard says parliament will ‘definitely’ sit for next two weeks. Is he lying? If parliament does sit through, Howard et al will use the House to attack Rudd and his team, particularly Gillard and Swan. It will be ‘inexperience’ over and over. Desperate stuff and risky for Howard as Rudd will pull as many censure motions as he can. Inflation figures due on 24 Oct, so election most likely for 27 Oct (before RBA raises interest rates on 6 Nov).
FOREIGN Minister Alexander Downer and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull no longer believe Prime Minister John Howard should lead the Liberal Party, Sky News has reported.
Sky News said Mr Howard discussed his future at length with his family on Sunday.
I think the “Working families have never had it so good” are psychologically effective ALP ads. Look at the authorisation.
I heard some claims the other day that some government ads are appearing without authorisation… anyone know if there’s any truth to that?
RE: 281
ABC Local Radio Sydney 702 are talking about the Downer/Turnbull treachery with Sky News political reporter now
Grooski 265
“but has anyone noticed Rudds change in personality lately?”
Yep, but I think this is part of the plan. One of Rudd’s great tactical victories so far this year is that he has avoided having to attack to a large extent.
It reminds me on Sun Tzu’s art of war – avoid going out to attack an oppenent. Instead build strong defenses and make them come out of their positions.
Then attack them when they are in this vunerable position.
I think this is what will happen over the next month.
Sky News understands Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull have advised John Howard that he should step down.
David Spears is saying -
: Downer and Turnbull’s comments i support of the Rodent are equivocal.
: that Howard has been unable to quell party rumblings
: that party room does not have the bottle to move a spill
: that this intense pressure is coming from more than the usual suspects like Washer and Tuckey
: that election will be in November
Move along. Nothing to see here.
Turnbull and Downer are denying. So it must be true.
No, they (Downer and/or Turnbull) would have ensured this was leaked and they would have done it for a reason. Party unity behind Howard in the face of an impending election is not the one that springs immediately to mind.
Brilliant. Beattie resigning leaves Anna Bligh of the Socialist Leftovers as the new premier of Queensland, guaranteeing the ALP a loss at the next federal election. And it makes a laughing stock of their party at the state level as well. Just the thing I wanted.
And even better news: General David Petraeus’ report has shown that the surge in Iraq is working. In eight of the last 12 months, the number of civilian deaths has fallen. In fact we are now down to early 2006 rates, vindicating Bush’s position and discreting the defeatist Demonrats and their leftard friends in Oz. Heh heh heh……
I think Howard should call the election at the end of this month and go for a seven or eight week campaign. Ample time to expose the Krudd opposition for their terminal inexperience when it comes to the real thing. The winds of change blow ever fiercer as the day of the ballot box nears……
Damn.
He’s finished.
I really wanted to see Howard’s concession speech.
Nostradamus -
surely you jest.
Glen, elections are normally about the government, not the opposition.
Oppositions have a threshhold of competence/appeal that they need to meet. If they don’t they will be punished such as in 2004 and 1993. But once they meet this threshhold the question becomes whether the government deserves reelection. This was the case in just about every other election in the modern period.
You need to face the facts: the ALP is ahead not because of what the nasty old media has been saying. The ALP is ahead because people don’t like Workchoices and they think that this government has had a long enough go.
Ah Nostro. You are SO eight weeks ago.
There’s no point telling him that. Glen will think Howard was robbed til his dying day. The world is just so unfair.
But I thought the Exalted Leader said that it doesn’t matter, who has responsibility, he’ll step in if there’s a problem?
I re read my post at 165 and of course you Liberal pedants, as usual, focus on a single item on the menu, rather than the big picture smorgasbord I was trying to present. But that’s OK.
If you lose penalty rates, then does that not constitute a loss of money. i.e. less pay for the same amount of work. Workers then have to work more hours at inconvenient times to sustain the mortgage or perhaps the missus has to take on a couple of shifts at the local supermarket or whatever.
I only wish I’d added the real sauce that people do not like the taste of a Government boasting about their obscene budget surplus when families are struggling to pay the mortgage.
Regardless, please keep talking this issue up because you know it is an absolute winner for the Libs.
Sky News reporting that Downer and Turnbull have lost confidence in Howard. All hands on deck in the Canberra press gallery….
Supposedly Turnbull is denying anything ever occurring. It sure is fun watching them self-destruct. It shows they must think they’re in trouble… you have to wonder who leaked this story to Sky News. I doubt they’d have just made it up.
Yeah, Mr. Rudd has been slightly ‘off’ in the last few days – and I’d concur with the Piping Shrike that it started with the Mandarin.
Also:
1. Mr. Rudd is putting on weight – what is it with Labor leaders in Opposition and weight gain – Kimbo, Latham now Rudd – only Crean didn’t and that’s cos he wasn’t there long enough.
2. Mr. Rudd needs to get another make-up ‘technician’ – sometimes it’s caked on – but this unflattering pasty, yellow tint… other times no make-up at all. He looks weird either way.
3. Mr. Rudd has got to stop with this one particular smile. It’s truly a contorted mess – all puckered up and strained, lips pursed… just wrong and yep, it does look insincere but worse… almost creepy. Especially when combined with inch thick make-up (see above!:))
4. Mr. Rudd is starting to get that prissy, whining tone back into his voice. Haven’t heard it for a long time… and he’s been very disciplined keeping his voice measured and slightly deeper. He seems to be slipping back to old habits now. This also has to stop.
Mr. Rudd summed it up awhile when he said (paraphrasing) that the first part of the ‘campaign’ was to show voters reasons not to vote for the Liberals… the second more difficult part would be to demonstrate reasons to vote for Labor. Mr. Rudd should just stick with the positive now. Let the Liberals slip slowly beneath the waves. They don’t need any help going down.
Nostrodamus: I know you are really a Labor supporter, you have been masquerading as some zany Liberal for all these months.
Wow, so the rodent might be history by tomorrow? It’d be bittersweet for me, I’d rather see Howard humiliated in a landslide election defeat.
Oh well, there’d be one winner out of it: Maxine McKew, who’d surely have Bennelong in her grasp without the Rodent as an opponent.
Hilarious: the rats go down with the sinking ship SS Howard.
@295 Call the election please Says:
You forget the Liberals undying allegiance is to der Führer for the time being (albeit with the obligatory obeisance to the demi god Menzies)
Once Howard is gone they will trash his name and trample his legacy (such as they are) in their rush to demonstrate their faithfulness to the new leader and whatever tin pot ideas he has.
The Sky story will lead to a flood. Interesting that it is Malcolm Turnbull and Alexander Downer. I wonder if they have been working in concert.
Alex may have just worked out that they do indeed have a better chance with Malcolm Turnbull than Peter Costello. No question in my mind.
The leadership change is now on. It’s probably only a matter of whether it’s going to be Peter or Malcolm.
This story was not there by chance. It’s a tactic in the larger strategy of rescuing the 07 election. Desperate times need desperate measures.
It’s more like 80% leadership change now and what are the odds on the two? 60% Peter? 40% Malcolm?
Stay strong John and don’t give in to these mere bounders. We need you there at polling day.
Also remember, Hyacinth has that rolling pin ahndy in the kitchen drawer and we don’t want to upset Hyacinth do we?
Howard is hanging on because he is an extraordinarily spiteful man.
First he wants to push through as much legislation as he can to make government difficult for Labor should they win; get deals through that support his ‘mates/supporters’ and, make as much trouble as possible for people he dislikes and doesn’t want to succeed – Costello. Maybe Howard no longer cares so much about election results and has become his real poisonous rodent self, doing as much damage as possible on the way down. Pure spite. Of course Costello knowing his time is up could be just as vengeful in return and cause more harm to the coalition.
If Labor do win and it is a blood-bath then the Senate has little rationale to block Labor election policies including the reversal of and spoiling legislation Howard might try and put through now. Given the cost of this campaign and the lack of Liberal funds a quick legitimate DD would see them suffer.
Interestingly depending how Howard and Co behave from here on – they could recover lots of seats now at risk but still lose the election or, go rabid and spiteful and end up with a 1993 Canadian result. Obliterating the party.
This is sooooo good……….Howard looking like a voodoo doll with pins slowly being inserted.
Turnbull Leader, Downer deputy and treasurer.
Howard and Costello both resign?
290 Nostradamus, I don’t know what you’re on but, boy, it’s good stuff.
Hawke/Keating: floated the dollar, deregulation and reduction in tariffs to create the modern Australian economy; compulsory super; Medicare
Howard: GST, Gun control (a leftist issue that Howard had opposed in the 80s) and Workchoices (which will be comprehensively rejected by the electorate).
Oh and Iraq and Tampa. Feel free to keep telling yourself that history will be kind to Howard on these issues. Just don’t read any actual history in the future.
Glen, would very much appreciate your thoughts on this, old son. Not quite sure, but there appears to be a bit of a trend, n’est-ce pas?
CBet 10:20 AM EST. Lab. $1.39 Coal $3.00
Right on Que,
The Coalition have hit $3.00 on Centrebet
Greensborough #297
There doesn’t seem to be evidence of people working more hours. According to the ABS there was an increase between 1985 and 1995 but since then there has been
a drop in those working 60+ hours
even in the 51-59 and 41-49
a drop in the 35-40
a slight rise in the 30-35
a rise in the 21-30
It would seem to suggest that people are working less hours not more, do you have any evidence or are you just quoting from a commercial again? ……it really shows how effective those ads were.
howard muffed it yesterday. he should have signalled the election would be sooner rather than later. by postponing, he has guaranteed the government will feel the blows of more horror polls.
the polling this week could be expected to be catastrophic: the leadership in dispute…the strategy disintegrating….the king himself looking lost, broken….
well, he had his chance and he’s missed it.
the liberals have no choice. if they fail to act, they will be obliterated.
Enemy: That’s just mean. Pointing out the Coalition is now at $3.00. OUCH! So that makes them at ~32% chance of winning, and it keeps getting lower and lower.
What great way for Howard to put a quick knife in Poor PM Pete is to resign his seat straight away and so give Poor Pete a little less time to hang around before calling the election Though I am unsure of how long a byelection can bedelayed it would be a factor in not spinning out to janO8 the election
“if they fail to act, they will be obliterated.”
Oh, I think they’re going to act. A tap on the shoulder via the long arm of Sky News. Classy stuff.
And this is not good. Costello or Turnbull or whoever will get a poll bounce, and the narrative of the election will change. It will be up to Labor to convince people the new team is just as bad as the old team, or worse. And they may succeed. But you can bet the new PM will quickly move to change direction, and ideology be buggered. Workchoices will get a makeover, so will two or three other key issues. It may well all be lies and more lies, but it will create a new ball game.
Newspoll will be phoning around Thursday/Friday, yeah? Interesting.
There all gonna started jumping ship
http://www.abc.com.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2029361.htm?section=justin
what if any impact this will have on those who have locked in their votes is the most intriguing aspect i feel -will people now reconsider their support,both lib and lab, or will it solidify their vote?
the other aspect is the amount of chatter regarding the libs-almost as if the floodgates were opened and a torrent of anti liberal sentiment has ensued-will this chatter subside or have we yet to reach the full impact of it?
It’s funny reading the comments on the news.com story and seeing all the Lib hacks throwing a tantrum because the media dare report anything that could be seen as negative for the Government. Such utter vitriol… it’s great!
We are now witnessing the self-destruction of the Liberals, which will inevitably lead to, as I predicted earlier, a Ruddslide of biblical proportions.
The Liberal leadership speculation now has gained critical mass and has become self-propelled; a runaway process that will deny Howard any clear air in the media until he either calls an election, is challenged for the leadership or resigns.
If he rides out the 2 weeks before calling the election, as he wants to do, then he will inevitably suffer more poll damage. I doubt whether his senior ministers will tolerate this.
Whatever the outcome from this mix of options, there is one constant that will apply in all cases: Liberals not getting their message out and being seen to be in disarray, with the end result being further loss of public support.
I hope all the it will be a close election brigade have now woken up to reality.
Leadership is a live issue in Canberra today.
It’s on.
John Howard won’t go voluntarily.
He is drunk on power and arrogance. That line about staying leader as long as his party wants him is yet another Howard lie.
The question is whether his party will remove him now? Unlikely.
And just how large the backlash will ultimately be, come election time.
The unfortunate thing for us all, is that if Howard isn’t kicked out, he will be spending like a drunken sailor on anything to try and get reelected.
Howard can fix this quickly – call an election. It is obvious what is going to happen, that rats will start biting each other as they do in times of stress.
Julie Bishop to retire? Can Costello be far behind? Downer? Ruddock?
If, as I have maintained all along, it’s all about WorkChoices, necking Howard at this point won’t make any difference. Costello is just as committed to WorkChoices as Howard, maybe moreso, and once the punters realise that any initial “bounce” will soon be lost. The real circuit-breaker would be to make Turnbull PM and promise a review of WorkChoices, but I doubt the Libs have the nerve for that – what would the BCA and the Morgoth press say?
Didn’t Julie Bishop say she is not retiring? I thought that was the whole point of that story.
Maybe Howard will sack both Downer and Turnball for disloyalty?
Bring on the bloodbath, after 11 years of pain, I’m enjoying this.
It’s a job resume.
A new fiftyish male leader with a forty something female deputy promising a bright tomorrow.
Now where have I seen this before?
Rubs hands. Ooohh. This is good. Where’s my latte?
“Mr. Rudd is starting to get that prissy, whining tone back into his voice. ” -300 Johnny Rocket.
Maybe the Libs can dig up another Scoresgate for him. Worked last time.
Is it too early in the morning for a chardy?
This has nothing to do with the Libs wanting to win the election: that horse has bolted long ago. It’s part of their firewall strategy. The Libs are setting themselves up for a stint in opposition; Turnbull will be the leader after the election full stop.
Why not change now?
Yep, it’s no longer an “if” but “when”. Just as I thought, the media narrative is so opposed to Howard now that a push for leadership change has gained a life of its own. If Howard digs in his heels now, he will destroy his party, but when he realises that he no longer has the support of the party room, he may well have no option but to go.
I hope Labor are ready for this scenario. And I hope that they have not just planned for a Costello PM but also a Turnbull one.
I would love to know what Rudd is thinking right now. Does he think he stands a better chance against Costello or Turnbull than Howard? Would Rudd have preferred Howard to stay?
The liberal theme song has to be “the dead march”from Saul, heard so often at funerals.
The death throes even of a snake are not pleasant to watch. We should avert our eyes, and think of all the good times we owe to the dear departed, like……. Oh well!
Let’s move on and make Australia a better place.
One couldn’t ask for me entertainment. The problem seems to be a cult of personality, people have followed Howard not the Libs.
Only problem with this leadership speculation and Beattie standing down is, that Rudd announced a few policies yesterday but he got no coverage about them since the media was looking elsewhere. Labor is going to have to come up with a big, electorate friendly policy and get some positive media, that would be a way to kick the Coalition while they’re down and just cement their own vote.
What a poisoned chalice for Costello! He’d really have to junk a lot of Howard’s policies, soften Workchoices and pull troops out of Iraq for instance if the Liberals are to have any chance of retaining government.
OK, I could be very wrong, but I can’t see Costello being able to pull off another 1983 type victory. He might save a few Liberal seats in Victoria, but can you see this guy winning votes in Western Sydney?
Red
i think the libs will need a stiff brandy or two today
The “Turnbull/Downer deny leadership challenge” stories are getting to frenzy levels in the media…
Howard’s going to struggle with this if he stays. Every little hint of a challenge, a resignation, instability of any kind is going to be blown massively out of proportion.
One suspects the duo above have told Howard he should resign gracefully without directly threatening him with a coup… yet.
The PM cannot be forced to quit by his party I thought?
IE he has the commission, so he can’t be forced out right?
Peter Out – Peter In. I think Costello will challange for the leadership. If he did the party would have to back him because the alternative would be Howard even more weakened and isolated than he is now. There would be absoultelty nothing to loose for Costello, this is his one and only shot, Howard has made it clear that he will not go volunterilly. A sucessful challenge will be much better for him than a smooth transition. It will make him look courageous and give more of an impression of a change of direction for the govt than if Howard were to just hand over the leadership.
774 have just reported that it is expected that a delegation will visit Howard early this afternoon to advise him he has lost the support of his front bench.
Henry, look at 1975. A leader with the full support of the HoR can be forced out. Without that support he must go.
Henry, Keating did it to Hawke. The new leader would still be able to form government because the parties would still be able to pass a vote of confidence in the new leader.
Matt Price’s latest http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mattprice/index.php/theaustralian/comments/an_epic_day
Yes, Henry, of course they can. They rolled Gorton in 1971 in just these circumstances – and gave us Billy McMahon!
Thanks guys for the clarification re: challenging the PM.
Can Howard circumvent the whole process (of his deposing) by calling the election asap, ie today?
Thank you.
In other news, seems the long awaited report about Iraq suggest a reduction in troops. This plays in to Labor’s hands, and in fact the Defence spokesperson made a public statement about it: http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-urges-Iraq-withdrawal-program/2007/09/11/1189276669410.html
The Prime Minister of Canada is addressing Parliament. His speech sounds like it was written by the Liberal Party. You could hear the Libs calling out in agreement. A very partisan speech I thought.
Oh its like day time soapies!! Where’s my bloody popcorn…?
In in other news again, Gillard is going on the offense about IR and the government, if elected, wants tougher IR laws: http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Gillard-says-govt-wants-tougher-IR-laws/2007/09/11/1189276674915.html
Certainly not a good day for the government. They’re getting kicked while down on the very policies that helped them go down. hehe
Bolt has confirmed the two ministers have made the point to Howard despite their denials
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
Bolt says Costello will be PM tomorrow.
In theory they could still roll him as Leader after the election was called, and presumably the GG could still accept his resignation as PM and swear in someone else.
Can I just say… what are they thinking? They really think this is a good move?
I think I would be right in saying that Joh B-P is the only leader in living memory who tried to hang onto his commission after being dumped by his party, but even he was forced to come to his rapidly-decaying senses after a few days.
(Excluding the Hughes split of the ALP of course.)
Only problem putting Tip in, is that the Victorian electorate might want a Victorian PM. It’s been ages since Hawke, and they just might fall for it.
If anyone’s watching the webcast of parliament at the moment… have you seen Downer/Turnbull in the footage?
Costello: show some balls and challenge Howard. As others have said, what’s he got to lose? Let’s hope the rodent is dragged out kicking and screaming, with plenty of blood on the floor.
If Howard were to dash to Yarralumla and ask for a dissolution as a means of heading off a party-room challenge, the GG would be within his rights to refuse, and to enquire whether the PM had the support of his colleagues. I think this is getting into fantasy scenarios however.
Actually, the best scenario for Labor is Howard narrowly winning a party ballot against Costello and a disunited Liberal party!
Where’s Glen when you need him for that extra bit of fun? He is probably writing up a huge post about how there is no problem with the leadership.
What I don’t understand… is how in the name of the good lord does Mr. Howard think ‘discussing leadership with his family’ contributes anything salient to the situation.
Does he expect us – or anyone – to say to themselves ‘ahh… he discussed it with his family… and if it’s okay with them… it’s okay with me’. This comment from Howard seems to underline just how ridiculous he has become…
Still, I don’t know whether the Libs would risk a bloody, public execution… and if Howard wants to dig in – I’m not sure how they can get him out without one.
Is Glen a Howard or Costello man?
I presume Dolly Downer will become Treasurer? How amusing that will be LOL
His seat.
Surely this is disunity is death … and an admission they didn’t get it right late last year? This could not possibly be a good thing could it?
Glen will be making sure is CV is perfect so he has a job in the right office of the new Government.
John Rocket [361],
I would imagine Howard’s Liberal colleagues would be pretty p#ssed off reading in the media how Howard discussed the leadership question with his family and not them!
Further confirmation of Howard being so arrogant and out of touch.
“Where’s Glen when you need him for that extra bit of fun?”
He is probably desperately trying to reshape his “experience” argument for why we should only support Howard. Or can we expect that Glen will now be giving his support to Rudd? After all, when Costello or Turnbull become PM, it will be Rudd who has the longest experience as a leader.
Downer and Turnbull tap Howard on; Howard brings on vote; Costello challenges; Howard wins by a vote; Downer, Turnbull and Costello all resign portfolios; Abbott elected new Deputy leader…
Ok I’ll stop fantasising now
Howard discussing it with his family means he is seriously considering his options, asnd his family said, we don’t want to spend time with you.
I still say new PM, whoever he or she may be, should make him Ambassodor to Iraq: he could not refuse such an important post, surely.
yeah, that’s funny Bungs… but what do you think of this scenario – Mr. Howard is ousted _and_ he stays on to contest Bennelong… he can devote his full time and energy to its defence. Sure it would be a comedown- no more Kirribilli, no more airforce at your beck and call… but you never know when you’re party might call you up again, eh?
If Howard resigns or is pushed from PM post, I can’t see him staying on in Bennelong or go to election. i also can’t see the new Lib leader wanting Howard to hang around the backbench all bitter and twisted. just my thoughts.
Oh I am hours behind I’m sure but the GG is sticking to the ‘no tape on the shoulder’ line; when Sky is clearly going with the ‘we are stuffed with you’ line. Of course there is no tap on the shoulder, Turnbull and Downer are just trying to get rid of Costello (by making him PM) and give themselves clean air, and a ‘we told him so’ defence if they lose.
If the PM pulls it out of the hat can he leave the two of them out of the ministry?
I like my 9 months of polling stability, I don’t want the ruddslide all messed up.
The look of the news is not good for Howard
Howard, not conservationists, ‘biggest threat to coal miners’
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2029497.htm
Costello’s brother backs Rudd on pokie crackdown
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2029507.htm
If Howard is pushed I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts leaking things left right and centre to the press to poison his successor. If there’s one thing the 80s told us it’s that Howard knows how to play dirty.
If you look at the schedule for the the HoR today, and Howard in particular, it looks like he doesn’t have an awful lot of time to devote to the whole leadership business, while Costello, Turnbull and Downer can make their time available for mustering numbers, convincing friends and foes. Howard can’t exactly just leave the Canadian PM to it.
8:30 AM – 9:30 AM AEST Visit to Australia by RH Stephen Harper, Prime Minster of Canda – Arrival in the Forecourt (HMS 15)
10:30 AM – 11:15 AM AEST Visit to Australia by RH Stephen Harper, Prime Minster of Canda – Address to the Members and Senators of the Parliament of Australia (HMS 15)
11:30 AM – 11:50 AM AEST Visit to Australia by RH Stephen Harper, Prime Minster of Canda – Joint Press Conference in the Prime Minister`s Courtyard (HMS 15)
12:40 PM – 2:00 PM AEST Visit to Australia by RH Stephen Harper, Prime Minster of Canda – Luncheon in the Great Hall (HMS 15)
2:30 PM Question Time, followed by MPIs, then normal business
Current odds for Bennelong at Betfair.com
ALP 1.73
Lib 1.77
Okay, assuming the cleaners have already been booked to mop the blood from the party room axminster tomorrow, it’s time to remind our fellow citizens of Peter Costello’s ideological roots in the HR Nicholls Society.
Their website is full of IR gems. Here’s a submission from Des Moore to the Fair Pay Commission:
“I understand that, in reaching its decisions on the minimum wage, the Fair Pay Commission is required not to decide on a decrease in the monetary amount. That is an unfortunate and regrettable constraint that is likely to continue to have the adverse effects on potential employees on low incomes that have resulted from previous irresponsible decisions by the Australian Industrial Relations Commission. However,
as a poor second best, I submit that the Fair Pay Commission’s first decision on the minimum wage in Spring 2006 should be that there be no increase in the monetary minimum, thereby allowing a reduction in the ratio of the minimum to the median wage. The Commission should also indicate that it intends to continue a policy of no monetary increase.”
Labor really will have to do a job on Costello, and fast. There’s lots of ammo over there with the ‘Ayatollahs of IR’ thanks to Des Moore and Ray Evans.
Disunity is death. There’s going to be a lot of bitterness from people who really love Howard towards the Liberal party for dumping him so unceremoniously. To do this at this stage is obviously sheer panic. I doubt that the Libs will be able to easily unite under a new leader – there’ll be too much bitterness going around.
Poor Stephen Harper. He must feel like he’s having to spend all day in a phone booth with a dozen people farting.
I’m bloody sick and tired of foreign leaders coming here and telling us how to vote. Now Harper is getting in on the act.
Okay, I’m buying stocks in cleaning products. There is going to be blood everywhere, and Labor is going to want to clean the seats of parliament before taking control.
Read this comment on Bolt’s blog which gave me a laugh:
“Not over yet, but it looks as though you are right. It is not too late for the coalition, and they should come screaming back in the polls, with a change of leader. ”
The blind faith of some people is just sad…
Link Gary?
If only,I wonder if you have heard the rumors that Crosby and Textors media unit are hiring full time trolls? The wonderfully Canute like postings you are writing here would be just the sort of stuff they are looking for.There may be a nice little AWA in it for you.
Turnbull is a very big risk for the lib hard heads,he is too likely to loose his seat,Costello it is then.
I’ve worked from home up here in the Blue Mountains for nearly 2 years now and for the first time I’m going to allow myself a treat.
At 2pm today I’m going to switch on the tele and watch question time on the ABC
It should be hilarious looking at all those Liberal faces.
I’ll try and give you a body language report shortly after 3pm.
If Mr. Howard does get ousted tonight… it’ll be nice to have a good reason to remember Sept. 11.
Remember when John Hewson drove Bob Hawke from office and the future belonged to him? Voters are unsentimental, if labor has amde ground on portraying Howard as yesterday’s man than some voters will be pleased with Costello. Could Costello face an alliance of the non-mainstream groups in the Liberal caucus, the wets, the economic rationalists and the Christian conservatives + desperate backbenchers against him?
The prediction that I have been peddling for a few weeks now is that if they stay with Howard the Liberals are looking at a state election type loss of around 55-45.
With Costello as leader the polls will either go back to a normal 51-49 or blow out to 60-40. Which way they are going to go will be able to be seen from the fist set of polling after Howard resigns.
Damn, work has blocked online betting sites. Anyone care to update us?
I “like†Nostradamus method of developing an argument. It consist of picking an event/issue/idea (regardless of how irrelevant it may be) and saying that it means that Rudd will lose and Howard will win. It does not matter how contradictory these conclusion may be.
Basically Nostradamus says Rudd has “farted†so therefore he will loose and at the same time Howard has “passed wind†so that proves that he will win.
I would expect better reasoning from a twelve year old.
Sideline, if your only treat in two years is to watch the tiresome farce that QT has become, you really and truly need to get a life.
That is certainly the risk of changing leaders now – it could just as easily cause a total blow out to 60/40.
Wrong Snow [388].
Go look at the leaked Crosby Textor research. The loss of support for the government has been due to them losing ownership of a range of key issues; not dislike of Howard. So this debacle for the Liberal Party will not be fixed with a quick leadership change at the 11th hour.
Of the 17 issues that influence the decisions of voters, Rudd now owns 11 of them. Plus the taxpayer funded advertising blitz has failed.
Will,
Libs still around $3. Large uncertainty on Bennelong odds – 15% spread on the odds at betfair (normally around 2%).
Bennelong update. Movement from 10/9/07 to 11/9/07:
Sports Acumen:
Howard: 1.65
McKew: 2.10
AOC: 23.00
Centrebet:
Howard: 1.65 → 1.68
McKew: 2.10 → 2.05
AOC: 21.00 → 17.00
Sportingbet:
Howard: 1.57 → 1.70
McKew: 2.60 → 2.10
AOC: 21.00 → 21.00
Portlandbet:
Howard: 1.70
McKew: 2.00
AOC: 81.00
Betfair:
Howard: 2.12 → 1.77
McKew: 1.74 → 1.73
AOC: 130.00 → 130.00
At the very least if a spill occurs, it will fracture the conservative vote. This will only play into Labor’s hands. Their only hope is if the coup is bloodless and dignified. Knowing how Howard is, I can’t see this happening.
It completely makes no sense. Howard is a popular Prime Minister. Like him or not (and I certainly don’t), approval ratings of 50% are nothing to sneeze at after 10 years. It makes no sense no matter way you look at it.
But by all means libs… go ahead and change leaders.
Looking forward to seeing Bennelong referred to as a safe Labor seat. LOL.
You have to love Barnaby Joyce: “There’s no point going to an election if you’re going to lose.” That’s it then, no election.
Howard on the ABC just now – quite adamant that he is not quitting.
World Today. Howard’s saying he’s not going anywhere. It’s going to be a bloodbath, or he’ll hang on. Excellent.
I agree that the atmosphere generated by the Liberals at the moment is completely nonsensical and bizarre. If Howard does go now, it would be viewed as the PM pathetically cutting and running immediately before an election and voters will be turned off the government even further.
Which is why I was so perplexed as to why he was adamant that parliament would continue to sit for the full two weeks. Even if he goes for a long campaign, calling the election ASAP would automatically get some swing back to Howard and unite the party to dig in and fight.
This present dithering is only serving to further disintegrate the coalition’s hope of retaining government – it can’t possibly save it.
The sod better stay…..i have a bottle of krug ready for election night and i want to see him cry!!!!!!!!!!
You have to love Barnaby Joyce: “There’s no point going to an election if you’re going to lose.†That’s it then, no election.
Howard on the ABC just now – quite adamant that he is not quitting.
Federal election outcome betting market update. Movement from 10/9/07 to 11/9/07
Centrebet:
ALP: 1.42 → 1.39
Coal: 2.90 → 3.00
Sports Acumen:
ALP: 1.41 → 1.39
Coal: 2.92 → 2.95
IASbet:
ALP: 1.40
Coal: 2.90
Portlandbet:
ALP: 1.45 → 1.40
Coal: 2.75 → 2.85
Sportsbet:
ALP: 1.45 → 1.40
Coal: 2.70 → 2.90
Sportingbet
ALP: 1.42 → 1.38
Coal: 2.85 → 2.90
Betfair:
ALP: 1.48 → 1.47
Coal: 3.00 → 3.00
Suicide. The party must act swiftly and decisively or it’s going down in flames.
Talkon, I think the craziness of it all simply comes down to Howard’s ego. He probably should have just called an election, but he didn’t want to be seen to be pressured into doing it. He wants to do things on his own terms. And it is the same with the leadership. He doesn’t want to be seen to be pressured to quit, again wanting to do what he wants on HIS terms.
But placing his party, and the country, on his terms is clearly his ultimate undoing. He will feign humility to try to get some votes, but in reality, Howard is anything but humble.
The Australian headline 12/9/07
Turnbull Rolls Howard
Malcolm Turnbull today became the 26th Prime Minister of Australia following a leadership spill yesterday. An emotional John Howard said “I have always served my country and my party to the best of my ability. And look, I have always said I will stay as long as my party wants me to stay. I congratulate Mr Turnbull and I wish him all the best. Disunity is fatal in politics, and I trust my colleagues can work together in the the err best interests of the party and of australians” Asked what his plans were Mr Howard said he was considering his options.
The Treasurer Peter Costello also congratulated Mr Turnbull, and when asked why he had not challenged for the role said “I’ve still got a lot of work to do in my current role. I’m still enthusiastic and I’ve got no particular aspirations towards that role.” Prime Minister Turnbull dismissed claims that a deal had been done with Mr Costello for the leadership.
The Australian Headline 2015
Turnbull Renegged on Deal – Costello
Libs tearing themselves apart. Rudd’ll blow it out to 65-35!!!
This is the link to Harper supporting Howard. I must admit the headline (which was the only thing I had read at that stage) reads a lot more into it than there really is.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22399238-12377,00.html
“The Australian Headline 2015
Turnbull Renegged on Deal – Costello”
yeah, that’s pretty funny comment, Rob. It’d almost be worth another 8 years of the libs just to see Mr. Costellos’s face in 2015.
Howard should go to the GG this afternoon and call the election. That ends all talk.
Howard is hanging on grimly.
” … in my thirty years in parliment I have need walked away from a fight …”
In other words – if you want me out you will have to challenge me.
All his gile in now turned towards his own party.
Cenrebet – Labor $1.37 Coalition – $3.10
The money must be flowing in for Labor now.
Make that Centrebet
No way, John. I want to see them cry as Rudd slaughters them like Beattie did in the 2001 Feb Qld State election, when Labor won 66 of 89 seats to the Libs 3 and the Nats 11.
Rob [407],
I’ve got an alternative story:
Howard cancels the election
——————————
In parliament today John Howard dropped a bombshell by introducing emergency legislation to cancel the forthcoming election.
“Ladies and gentlemen, I’ve always said that I would act in the best interests of Australia. That’s why I’ve decided to cancel this year’s election. There’s been far too much speculation about the election and people are annoyed with the constant polling that’s going on. It’s counter-productive to our nation’s economy. So to enable us to get on with the job of producing a fairer and more prosperous Australia, we think it best to not have an election”, John Howard said.
“As far as the constitution goes, I’ve been to see the Governor General and he agrees with my decision and has indicated he will assent to the legislation.
“To expedite this matter, we’ve also decided to abolish the High Court. But let me make it clear that avenues for appeal will still be available to anybody aggrieved by this legislation. In its place we’ve set up the Fair Legislation Commission, which I’m pleased to announce will be chaired by Professor David Flint.
“I know some people will be unhappy with these decisions. But I say to these people, please think of the thousands of struggling families out there on $150,000 a year with a McMansion and two investment properties and private school fees to pay that we are trying to help here before you go out and do anything rash.
Story ends.
And Bennelong is now $1.75 Howard/$1.95 McKew on Centrebet.
They just don’t get it do they?
It’s not just Howard that the electorate are finished with – it’s the whole bloody lot of them.
If Peter Costello gets the job then it’s very likely he will lose as badly as John Howard and then resign shortly after the election. Malcolm takes over.
If Malcolm Turnbull gets the job he may just win.
He may do the following:-
Announce a review into the IR laws when elected.
Reject the pulp mill and keep one or more of those Tasmanian seats as a result plus keep his own.
Announce a review into old growth forests in Tasmania
Promote several women to cabinet and get rid of ancient dead wood such as Ruddock.
Announce a referendum for a republic after an enquiry into which republic the people want.
Announce signing Kyoto
Announce significant government assistance to geothermal power development and wind power.
Announce a review into education expenditure
Talk about a federal takeover of all hospitals
In other words he will try to outflank Kevin Rudd on the left.
Kevin Rudd may just have me-tooed a little too much.
Result: Malcolm Turnbull PM for at least three years with a majority of two to four.
Nice Greens fantasy there, Richard. Won’t happen.
I can see merit in your strategy Richard but the dominant right-wing of the Liberal party, not to mention the Business Council of Australia and the Melbourne Club just wouldn’t stand for this.
All this speculation is entertaining, but most of you are forgetting a few important facts. One of these is that Howard is the incumbent Prime Minister and wil remain so until he resigns. The Governor-General can’t really intervene here, and he would be highly unlikely to. Howard has also stated quite categorically that he has no intention of resigning. This means the Libs have to fight a divisive leadership ballot in the shadows of an election, a ballot which no one could confidently predict the result of.
Unless Howard chooses to resign, he will be PM come election day. Whether he remains PM afterwards seems pretty unlikely.
Hugo,
are you saying that if Alexander gives him the shoulder tap he could actually refuse to go?
Interesting suggestions, but it’s hard to see how the following could be done in such a short period of time without the party tearing itself apart…
Costello as PM couldn’t pull it off, not after all the bitterness. Turnbull might do it. I think he’d have to do more than announce a review of WorkChoices. He’d have to make it the same as the ALP version. i.e. basically dismantle it, and do it before the election.
Rudd would then have a real fight on his hands, and he might not come off so cool if the polls were showing an ALP loss. Internal ALP tensions that have been masked by the Rudd factor might then come to the fore.
A new younger team with some women as Richard said. ‘New Liberal’ could swing it. But they’d have to be decisive about dumping WorkChoices. It could happen Adam.
I don’t get all the rumblings about Malcolm Turnbull… from all my talks to regular people they don’t rate Turnbull very highly. He just doesn’t have the touched.
He will be a failed Opposition Leader some day.
Hugo (#422),
your take on this is sound, but for one thing – you are taking Howard at his word.
Hugo’s right.
As I said before, whatever happens out of this leadership tussle will mean a negative impact for the Liberal party. No permutation can produce a positive here for the Libs, which is beautiful.
What a day it’s been so far! Love this blog. World’s best practise schadenfreude. QT on ABC telly(will you be watching, Janet?) at 2pm EST may well prove instructive.
I agree that Turnbull would prove to be a stronger “firewall” for the Libs than Costello, but in order to do so, he will have to moderate many of the key policies of the government. He will basically have to shift them towards Labor. Turnbull can do this because he is less aligned with them than Costello, especially WorkChoices.
But I can’t see how the government as a whole can do this while still gaining any credibility. After all the scare campaigns on Labor’s policies, they turn around and copy them? Their economic arguments will be smashed to smithereens. They will simply be viewed as the cheating, lying, and grubby individuals that we all suspected them to be.
On top of this, giving Turnbull the leadership will completely smash all their talk about experience. Turnbull has only been in parliament for three years.
In short, the government will give up everything that they have professed to believe in. It will be a monumental sacrifice simply for the sake of retaining power. It won’t take much for Rudd and Labor to then highlight this – they will be revealed as desperate, power-hungry, and soulless people.
I don’t think Australians don’t like handing power to people simply because they want it. I still believe that the majority of people would vote for a party that they thought had something genuinely good to offer the country.
There is nothing compulsory about being “tapped on the shoulder.” If Howard won’t resign as party leader, as is his perfect right, someone will have to move a “spill” motion at the party meeting – Tuckey has already said he will do so. It will then be up to the turkeys which Xmas they vote for. If Howard was voted out as leader he would immediately resign as PM – he may be stubborn but he isn’t mad like Bjelke-Petersen. He might, however, attempt to head off a party vote by calling the election. In theser circs, as I said before, the GG would be entitled to refuse him a dissolution if he believed that the PM did not have the support of his colleagues. This would be a big call for the GG but within his rights.
Isn’t QT starting at 2:30pm today due to the Harper visit?
QT should be at 2.30pm due to Canadian PM visit
Bungs – snap
The Greens are resorting to humor. Turnbull comes over terribly in front of the camera, cant hack being out in front and would be a campaigning disaster, Rudd and Co would thrash him quite easily. I doubt he would recieve Costello’s support either.
I think some live in alternative universe and imagine that somehow the Liberals will be become the Greens best friend without Howard. You would have to be a Liberal plant to hold such views.
The liberal party is firmly in the grip of the right – all the greens will end up doing by giving any voting for or supporting Liberals is aid the destruction of free speech, democracy, the loss of individual rights, the ‘enslavement’ of workers the dimunition of justice and the absolute politicisation of the public service and military. I guess it is quite convenient to be basically a one issue party, you dont have to think about the population of the country.
This is the loveliest day in Australian federal politics for eleven years. And looks like it will only get better.
Watching this filthy nest of rats ripping each other to pieces as they shriek about the bloody economy…unable to see that the electorate and the world have moved on from their insular, greedy, self-serving neo-con ugliness.
And, I would just like to thank Nostro and Stephen Kaye for goading me into betting $3k on Rudd when he was $2.55 last December…and $50 on Maxine at $4.50. Onya boys.
It’s a beautiful thing.
Kina-
let me assure you that as far as I know the Greens will never support the current Liberal party for all thereasons you outlined, and about a million others.
Obviously they wouldn’t let Snakey join the Young Liberals.
Then again Morgan supports Howard
Roy Morgan Reactor Shows Electorate Still Listening To Howard
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/press-releases/2007/676/
Beazley reckons Howard gone within a week: he’d know, he has experienced being rolled…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22399773-11949,00.html
Canadian PM Harper currently addressing Federal Parliament in both English and French.
Apparently Prefect Downer has his hand up in the background wanting to address the class in French to show off his bi-lingual prowess.
Rudd will follow with a speech in idiomatic Eskimo, including all 17 words for snow.
435#
The Greens are not a one issue party. Clearly. And although Costello and Turnbull are both more progressive than Howard, it doesn’t mean that they will start preferencing the Libs any time soon.
442. there are actually 35 words for snew.
Richard Jones comments eemind me of his performance in the NSW upper house – only a very limited grasp of the notion of party loyalty
Kina- when will these fake Labor drones actually tell the truth… if one reads the Greens platform they will see policies similar to what the Labor Parties were thirty years ago before they become overtaken by economic rationalists and people in it for the money… The Greens now tend to be the party for reform and the poor and this is what Labor cannot stand, a party that actually is taking its constituency.