Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has announced his intention to retire as of Thursday. He will hand the reins to long-established heir presumptive Anna Bligh, who will follow Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to become Australia’s third female premier. This means a by-election looms in Beattie’s seat of Brisbane Central. While this is hard to get excited about (it is all but certain that the Liberals will not field a candidate), it’s interesting to note that Beattie’s margin fell from 25.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent in 2004 and then to 14.8 per cent in 2006. Of greater interest is the symbolism involved in two state premiers recently deciding to quit while at the top of their game, and the contrast presented by the present incumbent of The Lodge.
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446 Comments
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Albert F well said. Beattie timed this announcement to perfection. Rudd knew about it also, and has been pressuring Howard today to announce the election.
By doing this, Rudd is forcing Howard to delay calling the election. Otherwise he will look weak and make Rudd look strong.
By retiring now, Beattie has
a) focussed the Qld debate on state issues for the next two weeks
b) highlighted Howard’s selfishness in staying on
c) pressured Howard to stay on so as to not look like a copycat
So it’s a one – two punch from the Qld ALP. It looks like it is designed to force Howard to stay on and delay the election. Another view is that Beattie’s message of Renew, Survive is aimed at the libs backbenchers. Tomorrow’s coalition party room meeting could be interesting.
Swampy, thanks for the history lesson. Ray Whitrod was too good for Qld, and his name will not be forgotten here for a long time.
That’s the problem. People see this as a game. “If I can just beat the other guy and win the record.” Politics reduced to a pissing contest.
ifonly,
Yep – he’s still here – others cut down by their own hand or their colleagues.
It’s probably over to the public to take care of Howard…..
Boll says: “It`s not Survivor, ifonly.”
The Libs problem is that Howard thinks it is.
7.30 report Howard interview.
Excruciating. I thought he was going to cry. And Kerry even seemed awkward about pushing him too far.
Seems as if the kindest thing would be for his colleagues to tell him that he has done a good job, but he can rest now.
“Full Employment Economy†and “the preconditions don’t exist for a change of government”.
At least now we know what Glen’s post are going to be about.
Those familiar with Possum Pollytics (http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com) excellent analyses of polling data might be interested to know that his recent analysis of Crosby/Textor’s data has been pulled from the Crikey website:
Never mind Nielsen, Crosby/Textor had the death sentence
Date: Monday, 10 September 2007
The content of this article — originally published at http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/ — has been removed at the request of lawyers acting for Crosby Textor.
Seems that someone at either Crosby/Textor or the government were not happy with the public knowing about the dire polling situation that Possum was able to glean from the results.
Just watched the 7.30 Report. Thought Kerry went pretty soft on Beattie, but Beattie does have that effective tactic of agreeing with criticism of him. He even accepted comparisons with Joh Bjelke-Petersen.
Thought Kerry’s interview with Howard was a much better one. There were some good questions.
I must admit I was surprised when Howard stuck to the old line that he’ll remain leader for as long as his party wants him. I think the voters might be a bit sick of that one. Kerry got him to admit that he hadn’t asked his party room whether they still wanted him, since Rudd was elected. Others have mentioned Howard’s comments on WorkChoices, and his failure to express any regret for not mentioning it before the last election. The PM also locked Costello in as a supporter of WorkChoices. Howard really was unable to nominate where he made mistakes, and the contrast with Beattie was huge.
Obviously, the most newsworthy angle was his announcement that Parliament will sit the full two weeks. So no rush to the polls. He must be planning to bang through a lot of legislation that will pre-empt or block Labor policies. And we await fulfilment of his promise to show us how he’ll capitalise on the booming economy, and secure all our futures. If he’s got a plan on that one, he’s certainly not leaking it yet. Roll out that surplus…
Full employment = 1 hour a week employment or above(=welfare state)Preconditions don’t exist for a change of government: ask Paul Keating and Jeff Kennett.
I emailed the full text of Possum’s analysis to fifteen marginal seat members, just to ’stir the possum’. It will be all over the entire Coalition parliamentary cabal by now. Pulling it from Crikey is just plain stupid.
Howard vs KO was just plain pathetic tonight. In the light of the CrosText analysis, and six months TPP of 44%, 99% certainty at a .5% interval, little Johnny is out of his depth (never more than a puddle), and will sink into oblivion, recognised for the sad excuse for a PM he has always been.
He quoted Downer, Abbott, Nelson, Ruddock, Brough, and Costello as the reasons why the ‘team’ should be re-elected. Such is self delusion! And no mention of Vaile, Vanstone, Coonan. What dreadful ingratitude!
cheers,
Alan H
Howard seems to ahve taken Mal Washer’s advice, he is going to stop talking about himself, but instead concentrate on the team behind him.
He’s tried everything else, this really seems to be a last roll of the dice.
Howard indicated that parliment will sit for another two weeks. There must be a plan behind this – what legistalive wedges are they crafting?
The Q’ld council attack is largely fruitless now as the main target has left the building and a younger leader in a honeymoon period is there instead.
Anyone got a suggestion of what wedges the rodent has left?
“I emailed the full text of Possum’s analysis to fifteen marginal seat members, just to ’stir the possum’.”
Nice move
So what do we think we know?
Howard’s not budging and at the moment no one seems to have the balls to move him so he’s going to the election as the leader of the party regardless of what the polls say.
Parliament will stay on for the two weeks but surely after that he’ll call the election.
Most probably dates of the election are still late October or early November.
Howard will push the concept of “full employment’, his record. the Liberal Team and Rudd’s comparative inexperience.
Overall I can’t see the polls changing. The Libs are marching to defeat like Napoleon’s army marching into Moscow. Confident they’ve beaten the enemy lots of time before and that their Leader is an Emperor amongst mere mortals. Oblivious to the approaching winter.
Maybe now the truth will out. Howard was never the master politician attributed to him – just lucky.
Got in under the radar against Keating (harmless and benign versus arrogant and out of touch), stayed in after 9/11(under the umbrella of Bush’s With us or Against Us) while we were all shocked and frightened, then Beazley caved over Tampa and lost the left, then had Mark Latham lose an election.
Reminds me of the speed skater, Bradbury(?) who won gold at an olympics because all the others fell over.
If Parliament is going to sit for another two weeks, it’ll be interesting to see how next week’s Newspoll is going to affect the lead-up to the election.
Another disastrous result for the Coalition (though I’m unsure what this would be – perhaps anything worse than 58/42?) would surely increase the pressure on JWH to go. Anything better and JWH could claim that the polls are starting to turn around (again!) and that the Coalition has the momentum = JWH survives as leader.
I wonder how Rudd is going to play the game this week? Does he sit back and let the Liberals self-destruct? Or does he ramp up the pressure on the government by releasing another policy?
Well, Glenn Milne speculated today that if there are two more polls with the ALP vote this high (say 56 – 57 or higher) then there will be a challenge. I HOPE that happens, because if it does the ALP will win about 110 seats.
jen 115
“Maybe now the truth will out. Howard was never the master politician attributed to him – just lucky.”
I think the Howard as a political genius is a myth. I do credit him with being prepared to put the much need taxation reforms before the electrate in 1998. It was good policy but nearly cost him office – he got very lucky with tampa and 9/11. He again got lucky in 2004 when the simultaneous brain explosion by the ALP put Latham in the driving seat.
Thats it in my opinon – one gutsy piece of reform, two strokes of luck and steady debasement of our social values and institutions.
Regardless of what the others think and i know many of you have been critical of several Government ministers but Howard was right while this Government does not claim to have a spotless record no Government can and its record shows his Ministers have been competent in discharging their duties and delivered real positive results for the country…
I think a front bench with Costello, Downer, Brough, Turnbull, Bishop, Abbot is a darn sight more competent than Swan, McClelland, Macklin, Garrett, Smith and Roxon…i hate to sound so high and mighty but even a fool could see which side has more experience and a better track record in their respective portfolios….the people may be attracted to Rudd but they havent been exposed to his incompetent and invisible front bench many of whom have little or no political experience let alone enough time in their respective portfolios to have shown any degree of competence necessary to run a Department.
Howard should hold off the election until November at least if not December if the polls dont move terribly much…Rudd’s hubris will take hold and be on view for the whole nation to see that he thinks he has already won the election…Other than Rudd nobody in the ALP is qualified or has the ticker to be the Labor leader its Rudd or bust there is no one else that is why the focus has been about Rudd and only Rudd he’s got a very poor team backing him up that many of the public dont have a clue who they are even Labor members cant name half of them…
The last thing Howard will do is call an election now for one because he’s in charge and he’ll go when he wants not when the media or Rudd says so and second because the polls are so bad he’d be a fool to call them now the high 50s Labor 2PP are at the top end of their polling and the result as it is is probably about 55-45 going into the election a massive amount to make up but anything could happen…
To believe you are ahead by 20points shows that your hubris has blinded you to the reality that as Howard points out 2 preconditions for removing a Government one the downturn of the economy and two an incompetent Government are no where near the case at the moment…if the Government does get beaten it will be because people are bored with the Government and just want a change for changes sake but they’ll wake up the next morning with a complete bunch of amateurs running the economy not something to be taken so lightly…declare the election left wingers if you dare but that would leave yourselves open to a Kinnock Election one that you would hate to see……
Thanks Albert –
reminds of the Diana myth that a pretty woman with nothing between her ears became a ” tireless worker for the poor and sick” rather than a clothes horse for Givenchy. (I still felt upset when she died though.Compassion will out) Possibly stretching the analogy with Howard i will admit. My point being – It’s all about perception rather than substance .
Yeah, life has been great in the sunshine state.
No water, gridlocked roads, a stuffed ambulance system (despite a decent ambo levy on our electricity bills) and a power grid that could fall to bits in a decent thunderstorm.
We wont go near the hospitals.
Thanks Pete.
Glen,
Thank you for repeating the current ‘talking points’ of the Liberal hierarchy.
Would you please check back with them to find out why they are censoring your co-bloggerist, Possum. A bit of solidarity, mate ,never went astray.
Once all your bluster and bull is wiped out by the coming election, you will need friends. Harming Possums don’t look good on your CV.
“Will Says:
September 10th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Howard was saying that in 92 Keating was 10 points behind and still won the election, but Kerry in the end pointed putting him in his place saying the polls were closer to 8 points and that the polls had been all over the place that year but the current polls have been in Labor’s favour for 18 months.
Howard seemed very uncomfortable, and it didn’t even sound like he believed what he was saying about Labor.
Definitely not one of his best interviews.”
Will, Howard raised this 1993 comparison over a month ago. Here’s some analysis on the polling for 1992 and 1993 that shows Howard is either blissfully ignorant or deliberately lying re that election. It’s nothing like this year.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=193
jen,
Ya just messing with my head drawing a comparison between Dianna and Howard
But yes, history is written by the winners – and up to this point Howard has won …. but if and when he looses I doubt the verdict will be kind. Gough, Fraser, Hawke, Keating are welcome and respected figures in public life – I suspect Howard will not be afforded the same affection
I must say, Howard’s criteria for a change of Government is total dross. For one, the economic argument doesn’t stand. Hawke was re elected in 1990 with interest rates at 17% and Keating was re-elected in 1993 after the recession.
For two, Keating was pitched out in 1996 after 5 consecutive years of growth.
Certainly you could argue that the Keating Government was incompetent but like all of Howard’s claims this one is totally unquantifiable and left entirely up to perception. I appreciate that blinkered Tories would say Keating was incompetent but was he any more so in 1996 than he was in 1993 or 1990?
I could certainly put foward the argument that this Government is incompetent and that the economy has been plugging along more in spite of Howard/Costello than because of them. The good economy is because of the Hawke/Keating reforms (de-regulated banking, floating dollar, removal of tariffs) and the Chinese and Indian appetite for Aussie dirt. Nothing to do with Howard and Costello. In the mean time they have been at each others throats to such a point that identifying any specific coherent management in amongst the rabble is no easy task.
At the end of the day, each election is different and the reasons for the outcome will almost certainly be unique.
Boll#100
LOL….
I want a thread where I can post campaign one liners. Rules are that your post has to be less than 30 words and a maximum of two sentences.
Together we could create the slogans for both parties.
Abert -
do you think John and Malcolm will be able to be friends now?
Seems a shame to waste all those ‘Former Leaders Now Have Fun Together’ photo oppotunities that the Labour ex-pm’s manage to pull off.
Glen, Glen, Glen. I admire your resilience in the face of over-whelming evidence to the contrary, I really do, but sometimes setting your jaw against the coming wave just doesn’t work, and indeed, could be seen as delusional. The basic problem you have in your arguments is that you haven’t given us anything new for months. Yes, we know that you think the ALP front bench is full of duds, that no Opposition leader has won the Lodge without being in public life for 20 years, and that Howard the master campaigner will win the campaign and thus the election.
The trouble is, there’s no precedent for this year’s polling – even Howard in 1996 or Hawke in 1983 were never consistently this far ahead. Every now and again and election comes along which turns conventional wisdom on its head, and 2007 looks to be one of those years.
But stay true – Johnny needs you.
Glen, You live in the same sad disconnected fantasy land that Howard does. Is it a genetic defect? If you think that Downer, Abbott, Ruddock and Nelson are positives you are seriously deluded. These four, in particular, have a nasty stench of profound incompetence about them. If they are your strength, you’re stuffed, mate. You’re stuffed anyway, no matter what. Read Possum and weep.
cheers,
Alan H
Where is Possum?
Good on you Glen (post 119) for trying – we know all too well how it feels from the other side.
But seriously: “more experience” as the decisive criterion? Even you must surely admit that the Hawke cabinets were some of the best we have had – and how many of them had any experience in government of any kind to start with (Hayden being the the major exception, to go with PJK’s few months).
If the boot were on the other foot – and if the conservatives in Australia retained any interest at all in federalism as a principle of governance, rather than only a target for Crosby-Textor (TM) based attack – I would have thought that Rudd and Swan’s very senior State administrative experience would be regarded as very serious experience indeed.
Without getting too far at all into unfair comparisons with suburban solicitors who used to sell parrots and goldfish as qualification for Treasurer etc etc (sorry just showing my age there no doubt for those who don’t recognise the quote).
The appeal to experience in government as a qualification for power – if pushed as far as I think some are trying to push it – seems to me to amount to a claim that the people should never change their government.
I don’t think J.W.Howard himself is or would ever be guilty of such an anti-democratic view, any more than P.J.Keating was, and I’d be sorry to see it advanced further by JWH’s remaining supporters.
Glen,
Let our Possum go.
But yes, history is written by the winners – and up to this point Howard has won …. but if and when he looses I doubt the verdict will be kind. Gough, Fraser, Hawke, Keating are welcome and respected figures in public life – I suspect Howard will not be afforded the same affection.
Albert F 124
Lot of truth in that. The historical reckoning of Howard’s premiership will be a lot swifter and harsher than usual. And he has nobody but himself to blame for that.
Glen: The main reason the Howard government is doing badly is because they are grossly incompetent.
The fact that they can’t see this, shows just how incompetent they are.
Then again Howard and Downer have turned wilful blindness into a skill.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/chaser/war/downer/
Possum, the Psephological Find of the Year, as they’re calling him over at Lavartus Prodeo? I imagine he’s out getting himself a good agent.
All of you who are commenting upon the difference in experience levels of the current front bench vs. the shadow front bench – if this comment resembles you, read on ….. Several months back, a US reporter posed the “lack of experience question” to the presidential candidate Obama in discussing why people should vote for him over Hillary based soley upon that issue. His response was along the lines of “Cheney and Rumsfeld had experience and look what that got you – a war.” Government in power by its very existence will have more on the job experience than opposition. And if they are making bad choices with that experience, the voters have every right to chuck them out.
GG
used to live there: is he in your roof?
MM Fike @ 121, I live in Bris mate and that drivel you just pushed was straight from Liberal Party crapbooks
If Beattie had pushed the money 3 years ago into a water grid when our catchments were over 50% full, I would have lined up to throw something at him. That the dams are missing the majority of the massive amounts of rain the Sunshine Coast has received lately is no ALP policy failure on water. The Mary River Dam would be 2/3 full by now and we would be back on level 2 restrictions if it had been built already. You know – able to wash the car again?
The gridlocked roads are “can do” Campbell Newmans problem not Beattie’s. In fact – that was his election push “I’m a civil engineer, I know how to fix Brisbane’s roads” As for Ipswich motorway, blame Howard for that too and the ridiculous Goodna bypass.
Wasn’t there a survey of hundreds of ambulance users tabled in parliament last month from July asking of their experience and 97% said that it was satisfactory or better? Yes it is understaffed, but all Health in Qld is struggling to keep staff.
As for hospitals – I think everyone can safely say we are 100% better off than we were 2 years ago. As long as it keeps improving, even with the staffing concerns, thats all I’m looking for.
Beattie has made some blunders for sure – Patel’s extradition, Mary Rose, amalgamation heavy handedness, but overall he has been excellent.
Glen is like a drowning Egyptian.
He’s in de Nile.
A dreadful performance from Howard on 7.30 Report.
The real dickhead is Costello! A bloke with more balls would have struck 12 months ago, and if it took 2 challenges to remove the rodent, so what, Smirky would have got the job eventually. Now, if the polls are to believed, Costello will win the booby prize of Opposition Leader and 10 years in the political wilderness LOL
Chris B: HA HA good one mate!
In comparison, a very classy interview between O’Brien and Beattie.
Premier Pete – I’ll miss ya!
Jen,
I reckon Captain Smirk has a better chance of a sleep over at the lodge than Malcom letting Lil’ John anywhere near him.
Actually Crispy, Possum is trying to find a larger hat to encompass his ever growing head
Seriously though, it’s all a bit peculiar.
I havent been attacked by lawyers yet, so its all business as usual.
And thanks folks.
What on earth is the PM thinking about? Why is he delaying the calling of the election for another 2 weeks? It looks terrible.
Does he really think the polls can turn? Fair dinkim, he’s lost it big time. People are already pissed off that the election is forever delayed.
This won’t change the impression that Howard is araldited to the seat looking sad, desperate and in denial. Honestly this is nonsense. Even a number of his cabinet are now saying that he should call the election. It’s not in the spirit of things.
It is now more than 3 years since the calling of the 2004 election and it is possible he won’t even call it before October 9th, the date when the last election was held. What a joke.
Putting that to one side we can now rule out October 20th and probably October 27th. November 3rd & 10th come into play despite the risks of an interest rate increase.
Beyond November 10th the election date doesn’t matter. It will seen as the forced consequence of a man who doesn’t want to face the people and relinquish the position he has coveted all his life. He has sacrificed the future of his party.
History will judge Howard harshly. He should stop being selfish and self-indulgent. It appears that he just doesn’t care.
POSSUM FOR PM!!!!
Glen does.
‘Cause it sure as hell won’t be John Winston Howard.
Jen,
Used to live there?
Greensborough. possums everywhere.
As much as you lefties hate Howard, if he does lose what great shape he’ll have left the country in a real testament to his hard work over 11 years in power….low interest rates, low inflation, no debt, low unemployment, greater spending on defence and security, gun control, immigration problem under control, higher education and health endowment funds + the future fund + record budget surplus’s + superannuation and tax reform…id have to say Howard’s legacy whether it be over this year or in a few years time will be one of success and one of achievement and none of your ranting left wing monologues can discredit his good record a record Keating could only dream of…people dont and will never hate Howard as they did Keating or Fraser for that matter….
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